Exploring Spatiotemporal Variations and Driving Factors of Urban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

Abstract

The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA) is one of the most active economic development regions in China. However, the YRDUA is facing the severe test of sustainable development. Therefore, this study evaluates the urban comprehensive carrying capacity (UCCC) of cities in the YRDUA from 2009 to 2019 from natural, social, and economic perspectives, and uses the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression model to analyze driving factors of spatiotemporal variations of the UCCC. Besides, this study divides the UCCC into three levels: high, medium, and low. The results indicate that: 1) there is a significant spatial heterogeneity of the UCCC in the YRDUA; 2) the UCCC in the YRDUA is generally at medium level and presents a gradually increasing trend; 3) 10 driving factors significantly affect the UCCC, and the influence intensity is non-stationary in time and space. These findings can provide references for improving the UCCC in the YRDUA.