Urban Adaptation Research Articles

Are cities ready for climate change? Exploring the spatial discrepancies between urban vulnerability and adaptation readiness

Climate change is an increasingly severe global crisis, posing threats to ecosystems, economies, and human lives. To address these threats, different cities around the world have adopted various levels of adaptation strategies to cope with varying degrees of negative impact, such as increasing water efficiency and enhancing health response systems. Despite some progress, there is a spatial discrepancy among cities in terms of their vulnerability to climate change and their adaptation readiness. Uncovering the reasons behind this spatial discrepancy could help us formulate better policies to address climate issues. To this end, we conduct an empirical analysis using city response data from 2020, sourced from the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP), focusing on a dataset that encompasses 421 cities worldwide. Specifically, we first formulate a “vulnerability index” to measure the propensity of cities to suffer negative effects in the event of climate hazards and a “readiness index” to represent their adaptation readiness level. Then we introduce the “discrepancy score” to quantify discrepancies across cities and discover the spatial distribution of the discrepancies through spatial visualization. Further, we employ a clustering analysis method named k-means to group different cities based on vulnerability index and readiness index. Finally, we perform Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to quantitatively analyze the spatial correlation between the economy and the discrepancy score of different cities. Our research mainly reveals several findings: (1) European cities tend to exhibit high levels of adaptation readiness with low degrees of vulnerability. In contrast, African cities consistently display heightened degrees of vulnerability combined with limited adaptation readiness. (2) Economic factors play a significant role in the spatial discrepancies between levels of adaptation readiness and degrees of vulnerability of cities; (3) The impact of the economy on the discrepancy scores exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity, with its influence being greater in European and African regions compared to other areas. Our study contributes both theoretically and practically to the comprehension of global climate change. It provides evidence-based support for the development of more effective climate change mitigation strategies and lays the foundation for fostering worldwide collaboration and initiatives.

Re-thinking new possibilities for urban climate resilience planning in Bangkok: Introducing adaptation pathways through a multidisciplinary design workshop

In many cities in developing countries, the design and implementation of flood adaptation measures face planning challenges, they are often underdeveloped in practice. This paper aims to investigate the potential for urban flood adaptation solutions and design in practice within the context of a climate-vulnerable Southeast Asian city. We specifically explore the “design workshop” -- an essential process providing valuable experience and conditions for effective climate adaptation in Bangkok. As part of our research, the workshop was organized to introduce and experiment the implication of adaptation pathway approach with designers, urban planners, and decision-makers. Findings reveal that the design workshop provided a collaborative environment, offers transformative space for formulating integrated and context-specific flood adaptation solutions - new possibilities for urban climate resilience in the making. The application of the adaptation pathways facilitates a concrete, quantifiable, and time-bound design process for identifying and sequencing potential flood adaptation measures in Bangkok. Consequently, this paper concludes that multidisciplinary and collaborative processes, along with the introduction of adaptation pathways, stimulating urban flood adaptation planning and implementation in a more collaborative and participative way. However, it is important to note that the feasibility assessment of the proposed solutions still requires essential conditions such as policy synchronization, technical skills, and local resources. To effectively realize these strategies in real-world urban planning practice, this research suggests that local governments should consider implementing a multidisciplinary design process in urban development and flood risk management.

Nature for resilience reconfigured: global-to-local translation of frames in Africa

Globally, various frames of urban nature circulate, each emphasising particular challenges and natural solutions in the climate context. Yet which actors and dynamics shape their translation to the African context remains unclear. This paper explores the global-to-local translation process of frames through interventions funded by transnational actors, conceptualised as agents of policy transfer. Critical scholarship has observed that urban adaptation and resilience interventions in Africa are often characterised as technocratic and top-down approaches, hence it is vital to understand whether these are replicated through proliferating nature-based solutions (NBSs). The study of a resilience-building intervention in Lilongwe, Malawi, reveals that transnational actors play important roles by deploying frames of urban nature through funding projects. However, rather than involving a top-down imposition of particular solutions, this sets in motion dynamics: in the competition for resources that frames generate, various actor constellations of transnational actors, subnational governments and local NGOs reconfigure or relabel strategies and associated (nature-based) practices to suit global frames and the resources they generate. This shapes who is included or not, and what kinds of NBS are being developed, for and by whom. There is a risk that priorities of communities get lost in translation. Policy relevance Frames of urban nature shape global agendas but also matter locally in the design of programmes and projects. This study provides key insights of relevance for policymakers. First, external funding for climate and resilience is unpredictable and insufficient to address manifold urgent local priorities. It is important that actors at all levels strive to align resources to holistic strategies of local governments and do not impose certain visions for urban nature. For this to happen, and second, it is key that local governments and communities are empowered to create forms of nature that are built around diverse forms of local knowledge and expertise, to cater to values and priorities of the communities. Third, proponents of NBSs highlight their potential to address interlinked climate-, biodiversity- and society-related challenges. However, unless funding allocation puts emphasis on the interlinkage of goals, the potential for NBSs to reach multiple goals can get lost. Fourth, there is a need to disrupt the persisting scepticism concerning the feasibility of NBSs in informal settlements and forge collaborations that realise interventions closely linked to the priorities of disadvantaged groups in African cities, to leverage the power of nature for more just societies.

Innovate green building for urban heat mitigation and adaptation

Innovate green building for urban heat mitigation and adaptation

Species and habitat specific changes in bird activity in an urban environment during Covid 19 lockdown.

Covid-19 lockdowns provided ecologists with a rare opportunity to examine how animals behave when humans are absent. Indeed many studies reported various effects of lockdowns on animal activity, especially in urban areas and other human-dominated habitats. We explored how Covid-19 lockdowns in Israel have influenced bird activity in an urban environment by using continuous acoustic recordings to monitor three common bird species that differ in their level of adaptation to the urban ecosystem: (1) the hooded crow, an urban exploiter, which depends heavily on anthropogenic resources; (2) the rose-ringed parakeet, an invasive alien species that has adapted to exploit human resources; and (3) the graceful prinia, an urban adapter, which is relatively shy of humans and can be found in urban habitats with shrubs and prairies. Acoustic recordings provided continuous monitoring of bird activity without an effect of the observer on the animal. We performed dense sampling of a 1.3 square km area in northern Tel-Aviv by placing 17 recorders for more than a month in different micro-habitats within this region including roads, residential areas and urban parks. We monitored both lockdown and no-lockdown periods. We portray a complex dynamic system where the activity of specific bird species depended on many environmental parameters and decreases or increases in a habitat-dependent manner during lockdown. Specifically, urban exploiter species decreased their activity in most urban habitats during lockdown, while human adapter species increased their activity during lockdown especially in parks where humans were absent. Our results also demonstrate the value of different habitats within urban environments for animal activity, specifically highlighting the importance of urban parks. These species- and habitat-specific changes in activity might explain the contradicting results reported by others who have not performed a habitat specific analysis.

Species and habitat specific changes in bird activity in an urban environment during Covid 19 lockdown

Covid-19 lockdowns provided ecologists with a rare opportunity to examine how animals behave when humans are absent. Indeed many studies reported various effects of lockdowns on animal activity, especially in urban areas and other human-dominated habitats. We explored how Covid-19 lockdowns in Israel have influenced bird activity in an urban environment by using continuous acoustic recordings to monitor three common bird species that differ in their level of adaptation to the urban ecosystem: (1) the hooded crow, an urban exploiter, which depends heavily on anthropogenic resources; (2) the rose-ringed parakeet, an invasive alien species that has adapted to exploit human resources; and (3) the graceful prinia, an urban adapter, which is relatively shy of humans and can be found in urban habitats with shrubs and prairies. Acoustic recordings provided continuous monitoring of bird activity without an effect of the observer on the animal. We performed dense sampling of a 1.3 square km area in northern Tel-Aviv by placing 17 recorders for more than a month in different micro-habitats within this region including roads, residential areas and urban parks. We monitored both lockdown and no-lockdown periods. We portray a complex dynamic system where the activity of specific bird species depended on many environmental parameters and decreases or increases in a habitat-dependent manner during lockdown. Specifically, urban exploiter species decreased their activity in most urban habitats during lockdown, while human adapter species increased their activity during lockdown especially in parks where humans were absent. Our results also demonstrate the value of different habitats within urban environments for animal activity, specifically highlighting the importance of urban parks. These species- and habitat-specific changes in activity might explain the contradicting results reported by others who have not performed a habitat specific analysis.

Interdisciplinary integration of land use and drainage planning for urban adaptation under the climate change scenario

ABSTRACT The challenge posed by urbanization often revolves around effectively integrating land use and comprehensive drainage planning. The empirical results of urban layout on stormwater management are summarized into two major categories: (1) decrease of runoff volume and (2) decrease of peak flows. Interdisciplinary incorporation of urban design and hydraulic engineering should be employed for reducing upstream runoff volumes and a regional downstream detention system to mitigate peak flow releases. This study proposes a framework that combines the distribution of flow loading and the control of flow releases to formulate the adaptation strategy by synthesizing land use and comprehensive drainage planning. The study leverages environmental and land use data to investigate Dapu township, Taiwan. The presented paper designs a detention and low-impact development (LID) method based on relative land use layout. It identifies the relationships between land use and master drainage planning (MDP) in watershed areas. It contributes to an integrated framework for the urban planners' flood mitigation adaptation strategy. Most importantly, it provides insights into MDP practices under slight, medium, and even climate change scenarios.

Centring localised indigenous concepts of wellbeing in urban nature-based solutions for climate change adaptation: case-studies from Aotearoa New Zealand and the Cook Islands

Nature-based solutions (NbS) offer significant potential for climate change adaptation and resilience. NbS strengthen biodiversity and ecosystems, and premise approaches that centre human wellbeing. But understandings and models of wellbeing differ and continue to evolve. This paper reviews wellbeing models and thinking from Aotearoa New Zealand, with focus on Te Ao Māori (the Māori world and worldview) as well as other Indigenous models of wellbeing from wider Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa Oceania. We highlight how holistic understandings of human-ecology-climate connections are fundamental for the wellbeing of Indigenous peoples of Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa Oceania and that they should underpin NbS approaches in the region. We profile case study experience from Aotearoa New Zealand and the Cook Islands emerging out of the Nature-based Urban design for Wellbeing and Adaptation in Oceania (NUWAO) research project, that aims to develop nature-based urban design solutions, rooted in Indigenous knowledges that support climate change adaptation and wellbeing. We show that there is great potential for nature-based urban adaptation agendas to be more effective if linked closely to Indigenous ecological knowledge and understandings of wellbeing.

Climate Modelling and Analytics for Urban Heat Risks Mitigation and Adaptation

This study highlights the need for climate-sensitive urban planning and design in the face of climate change, with a specific focus on Singapore. Rapid urbanization has led to significant warming trends, increased heat stress, and heightened electricity demand for cooling. The Urban Climate Design Lab (UCDL) at the National University of Singapore employs a multidisciplinary approach, merging urban planning, architecture, and urban climate science. The research introduces GIS-based tools to evaluate the microclimate impact of new developments, replacing time-consuming simulations and wind tunnel experiments. These tools encompass: 1) The Urban Wind Environment Model, assessing urban permeability for natural ventilation; 2) The Fine-Scale Wind Environment Model, providing high-resolution pedestrian-level wind speed data. 3) The Urban Tree-Airflow Model, aiding tree placement and species selection for optimal cooling. 4) The Anthropogenic Heat Dispersion Model, estimating the impact of human-generated heat emissions. These GIS tools are integrated into the open-access UCDL Microclimate Digital Platform, facilitating knowledge transfer and empowering stakeholders in climate-sensitive urban planning. The platform offers various climate models and visualization capabilities to enhance evidence-based decision-making for urban climate sustainability and resilience. In the future, the platform will expand its offerings, becoming a valuable resource for urban planners, engineers, health practitioners, environmental experts, and residents adapting to a changing climate.

Integration of urban ecosystem-based adaptation in Nepal: A policy landscape analysis.

Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) is an ecologically sensitive, cost-effective, and locally adaptive climate adaptation strategy to strengthen the climate resilience of vulnerable communities. While many studies on EbA have been conducted in rural and mountainous regions or within the natural sciences realm, there is a lack of comprehensive research that assesses how urban EbA measures have been incorporated into existing policies and plans in Global South, including in Nepal. Ecosystem-based adaptation is in the early stages of its establishment as a fundamental component to address climate adaptation and sustainable development in urban environments. Accordingly, effective integration strategies, challenges, potential focal areas, and entry points have yet to be extensively studied. To address the literature gap, this paper analyses the types of EbA interventions and the extent of urban EbA integration within Nepal's climate, urban, and sectoral policies and plans. Direct content analysis and a qualitative scoring system were used to evaluate the plan components and assess the level of EbA integration. The findings indicate that the policies and plans recognise the importance of conserving, enhancing, and managing ecosystems for climate change adaptation, and EbA measures are mainly included in action-oriented sections. However, the results also reveal inadequate EbA integration, particularly in the information base, vision and objectives, and implementation aspects. The implementation component notably lacks comprehensive provisions for budget allocation, responsible authorities, definite timelines, and clear roadmaps. The breakdown of EbA integration in the policies and plans suggests that climate and urban plans substantially integrate urban EbA measures, but discrepancies exist with climate and urban policies and sectoral policies and plans. These findings collectively emphasise a pressing need to enhance the recognition and integration of urban EbA measures within policy frameworks with a view towards strengthening climate resilience and mitigating climate-related hazards in urban environments.

Urban Adaptability Evaluation and the ADI Framework: Pioneering Sustainable, Resilient, and Prosperous Cities

Urban Adaptability Evaluation and the ADI Framework: Pioneering Sustainable, Resilient, and Prosperous Cities

Christian eco-theology and urban climate adaptation in the Yorubaland, Nigeria

The relationship between various Traditions of Christian Eco-theology (TCE) on urban green spaces and implications on climate adaptation in African context remains blurred in the literature. This study assesses the meanings given to urban green spaces and perceptions of different TCE on climate adaptation with a view to identifying how the duos could guide climate policies. Onsite cross-sectional ethnographic interviews of forty-three key informants were carried out in fifteen Christian denominations in three South-western Nigeria Yoruba cities of Ile-Ife, Osogbo, and Abeokuta. Content analysis of interview responses was carried out. Thematic results suggest the followings: climate change denials; divine Sovereignty on climate issues and eco-spirituality; eco-theological approaches to urban climate adaptation; human capacity for climate adaptation strategies; and human ‘dominion over nature’. These mechanisms are framed as policy guidelines for climate adaptation.

Population and Morphological Change: A Study of Building Type Replacements in the Osaka‐Kobe City‐Region in Japan

As cities adapt to new needs and challenges, their forms change in close relation to population dynamics. This article focuses on the link between population dynamics and the evolution of building hull types. The case study is the Osaka‐Kobe city‐region in Japan, a country globally witnessing an intense population decline. Morphometric indicators are coupled with a tree‐like classificatory model in order to label buildings into consistent classes between two different periods (2003–2004 and 2013–2014). The building class distributions and their evolutions are studied in conjunction with population censuses. Urban adaptation processes are particularly accounted for through the study of the replacement of building types. Results show that, among other things, townhouses in traditional neighborhoods are gradually being replaced by small‐size collective complexes. In far outlying areas, people are still eager to move and live in detached single‐family homes despite a global context of population decline. Finally, central places are increasingly filled by narrow almost‐adjoining towers. Relations between building types and population dynamics, detailed through maps and statistics, show that peoples are increasingly concentrating in central locations associated with specific building types, while some other peripheral locations are concerned by both a disappearance of specific building types and a population decline.

Empowering urban climate resilience and adaptation: Crowdsourcing weather citizen stations-enhanced temperature prediction

The growing impact of climate change, including extreme weather events, represents a significant challenge for humanity. With most of the world's population living in urban areas, the urban heat island effect and anthropogenic heat contribute to elevated city temperatures. This increase in urban warming threatens human health and demands a deeper understanding of thermal distribution in urban environments. Collecting accessible and widespread temperature data in urban areas is essential to address this challenge. This study aims to develop a methodology for anticipating temperature distribution in urban environments, leveraging Citizen Weather Stations (CWS) as valuable crowdsourcing data sources. The ultimate goal is to create a predictive model that estimates urban temperatures based on government meteorological station forecasts, improving urban planning, regulating temperature-based routes, preventing health issues in vulnerable populations, and enhancing urban livability. The methodology is divided into three fundamental stages: data acquisition through CWS with citizen collaboration, the development and evaluation of optimal forecast models based on government weather stations (SWS) data, and its exploitation in terms of utility and applicability. This methodology encompasses data collection and filtering to ensure its usefulness and implement reliable models. The resulting tool facilitates informed decision-making and precise seasonal event planning in urban environments, effectively addressing the challenges of climate extrapolation and contributing to more effective adaptation and mitigation strategies in climate change and heatwaves. The results obtained probe the feasibility of using CWS to predict temperatures in urban environments, which has been demonstrated accurately. This is a significant achievement, as CWS has proven to be a reliable source of climate data for this context. Also, the filtering process described and applied to the case study has proven effective, discarding approximately 34.87 % of the data. This is achieved by detecting and eliminating anomalies, considering station availability, and adhering to specific quality criteria. Finally, the developed prediction model has demonstrated its ability to optimally estimate urban temperatures, utilizing climate prediction data provided by government weather stations (SWS). The model performance indicators support this claim. For the linear regression model, a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 2.177 and an R-squared (R2) of 0.960 are obtained, while for the neural network, an MSE of 1.284 and an R2 of 0.976 are achieved.

Urban Greening in the Process of Climate Change Adaptation of Large Cities

Cities—being places where both growth at large and human activity concentrate to the maximum extent, as well as being places of creation, innovation, and development—have been facing the challenge of adaptation to changing climate conditions. Successive greening of urban spaces is becoming an indicator of civilisational progress and one of the most important aspects of sustainable urban development and quality of life of city dwellers. It also represents a part of the sustainable management of natural resources and energy in the urban environment. This article addresses the subject of urban space greening, perceived as one of the ways of mitigating the effects of climate change. The study focuses on a comparative analysis of various planning and implementing activities related to green areas, as well as on available quantitative data on the greening and climate change adaptation of 44 Polish cities with urban adaptation plans (UAPs) in place. The research, covering the years 2017–2023, identifies the variety of urban greening methods, initiatives, and tools used in the process of urban planning and urban design. The results of the study showed that measures planned by local authorities lacked detailed tools as well as a long-term and systemic approach to greenery, energy, and space management. On the other hand, what was observed in the implementation was an apparent prevalence of urban acupuncture spots and a failure to make the most of all the benefits of the adaptive, social, and ecosystem-forming role of urban greening. The authors imply that their research can be used to formulate conclusions and guidelines for urban development policies which highlight the role and raise the importance of the greening of Polish cities under all urban investments, particularly in the process of adaptation of urban areas to climate change.

CLIMATE CHANGE TRENDS AND EARLY ADAPTATION STRATEGIES: POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND SOLUTIONS FOR BUCHAREST MUNICIPALITY

This paper explores some of the emerging impacts of climate change on urban environments, specifically, in this case, on the city of Bucharest. While using 2008 to 2023 data acquired from meteoblue.com, the analysis identifies specific trends in the local climate through two indicators: (i) the number of (air temperature) degree-hours beyond or below different thresholds and (ii) the Temperature-Humidity Index (ITU). The key findings relate to some observations that can be made after processing the data and looking at the different resulting trends. On the one hand, the number of degree-hours above certain temperature thresholds seems on an ascendant trendline. On the other hand, a decreasing trendline for degree-hours below lower specific thresholds can be noticed. This suggests that an increase in energy demand for cooling and a slight decrease in energy demand for heating buildings might be expected in the following decades, something with various consequences (e.g., socio-economic, environmental, etc.). When considering the other parameter assessed, the Temperature-Humidity Index (ITU), again, an escalating trend may be observed throughout the period for which data was available. Collectively, the findings raise a flag on specific increasing trends in levels of outdoor discomfort. Although the study's findings may be preliminary and exploring additional datasets would be desirable, they highlight a possible local warming trend and the need for early-stage urban adaptation strategies to increase local climate resilience. Given the concerns raised, the concept of Blue-Green Infrastructure (BGI) is identified as an essential solution to some of the different issues brought forth while assessing the data mentioned earlier and even when acknowledging the current problems experienced by Bucharest’s inhabitants during the hot season.

Climate justice in future cities: Geographical perspectives for inclusive urban resilience and adaptation

Climate justice in future cities: Geographical perspectives for inclusive urban resilience and adaptation

Contribution of rooftop rainwater harvesting to climate adaptation in the city of Hannover: Water quality and health issues of rainwater storage in cisterns and ponds

Rooftop rainwater harvesting systems and blue-green infrastructure are becoming important resilience alternatives for urban climate adaptation. This study sheds light on the largely unreported physicochemical and microbiological quality of private roof-harvested rainwater (RHRW). We aimed to identify the physicochemical and microbiological characteristics of RHRW, explore potential correlations between them and assess probable health risks associated with recreational interactions of children with the water. RHRW was collected from cisterns and ponds located in an inner courtyard in Hanover, Germany. Physicochemical parameters were measured on site and samples were collected once a month in two campaigns in 2020 and 2021. Escherichia coli concentrations ranged from 1 × 10° to 24.1 × 102 MPN/100 mL, Enterococci from 1 × 10° to 19.7 × 102 MPN/100 mL, Salmonella from 1 × 102 to 39 × 103 CFU/100 mL and Pseudomonas aeruginosa from 1 × 10° to 3 × 103 MPN/100 mL. Correlation analysis indicated potential relationships between bacteria, oxygen, and water temperature. The results of the health risk assessment indicated a potential risk of gastrointestinal illnesses due to exposure to Enterococci and Salmonella spp. present in the cisterns and ponds, highlighting the need for appropriate regulations and guidelines for RHRW aimed for non-potable uses. Blue-green infrastructure, when effectively managed and maintained, can offer benefits both by enhancing urban climate resilience and promoting citizens well-being.

Understanding urban vulnerability, resilience and adaptation: a conceptual framework

Adaptation in cities is not an isolated process, but rather it is embedded in the broader debate on sustainable development, commons and public goods. Through examining adaptation, we touch upon the concepts of urban vulnerability and resilience and try to view cities as complex adaptive systems. Only through this wide optics we can understand climate change adaptation in its complexity. Our paper tries to review recent literature on resilience and adaptation using bibliometric metadata analysis on academic papers.

CLIM-SEG: A generalizable segmentation model for heat and flood risk mapping

With the escalating impact of climate change coupled with increased urbanization, many cities will experience extreme heat events and intense flooding. Current modeling approaches often fail to incorporate high-resolution, frequently updated data sources, such as aerial imagery from web mapping platforms, limiting their effectiveness in identifying areas at risk. To address this gap, the paper presents CLIM-SEG, a novel framework for high-resolution urban heat and flood risk assessment, addressing critical gaps in current climate risk modeling. This framework integrates semantic segmentation of aerial imagery with a weighted sum approach that integrates environmental, socioeconomic, and building data to provide comprehensive risk evaluations at the census tract level. CLIM-SEG synthesize land cover data with hazard and vulnerability factors, producing risk scores ranging from 0 to 1. This low-cost and efficient framework can enable urban planners to prioritize resources for flood mitigation and heat adaptation, addressing the limitations of current approaches and contributing to the field of urban planning and climate change adaptation. The propoosed methodology incorporates a custom-curated dataset of 545 aerial images, including 145 manually annotated segmentation maps, to fine-tune advanced semantic segmentation models. The optimized Segmenter model achieves a pixel accuracy of 97.85% and an Intersection over Union (IoU) of 0.9578 for key urban features, significantly outperforming baseline models. Boston is selected to represent an ideal representation for both heat and flood risk, as the city experiences severe urban heat islands, and is susceptible to coastal and riverine flooding, with over 11,000 structures expected to be affected by 2070 due to sea level rise and increased precipitation. Results from flood and heat risk models indicate that census tracts in South End have the highest flood risk, with a weighted score value of 0.825, while census tracts in the Fenway-Kenmore neighborhood show the highest heat risk, with a score of 0.991. Both of these results have also been verified with other heat and flood risk mapping sources for Boston. The proposed framework of CLIM-SEG not only addresses the challenges faced by Boston but also has the potential to be scaled to other urban areas dealing with the impacts of climate change, providing a valuable tool for risk assessment and decision-making in the face of a changing climate.