Upward Revision Research Articles

Vitamin D Sufficiency of Canadian Children Did Not Improve Following the 2010 Revision of the Dietary Guidelines That Recommend Higher Intake of Vitamin D: An Analysis of the Canadian Health Measures Survey.

In 2010, the dietary guidelines for vitamin D for Canadians and Americans aged 1–70 years were revised upward. It is unknown whether the vitamin D status of Canadian children improved after 2010. We compared the prevalence of vitamin D sufficiency (25-hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH)D) concentration of ≥50 nmol/L), 25(OH)D concentration and the frequency of consuming vitamin D-rich foods among children aged 6–18 years-old using data from the nationally representative 2007/2009 and 2012/2013 Canadian Health Measures Surveys. Associations of sociodemographic, anthropometric, seasonal, and regional variables with achieving vitamin D sufficiency, 25(OH)D concentration, and consumption of vitamin D-rich foods were assessed using multiple logistic and linear regression models. 79% and 68% of children in 2007/2009 and 2012/2013 respectively, were vitamin D sufficient. The main dietary source of vitamin D was milk. Between 2007/2009 and 2012/2013, the frequency of milk and fish consumption declined, but egg and red meat consumption was unchanged. Age, income, weight status, season and ethnicity were associated with 25(OH)D concentration and vitamin D sufficiency. Vitamin D status declined after the upward revision of dietary guidelines for vitamin D, consequently, dietary intake was inadequate to meet sufficiency. Public health initiatives to promote vitamin D-rich foods and supplementation for Canadian children are needed.

Changing the game: the Paris Agreement and the role of scientific communities

Scientific communities were instrumental in building the momentum that led to the success of the Twenty-first Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21), held in Paris in December 2015. Less than a year after its adoption, the Paris Agreement has entered into force. The Paris Agreement is now, and will stay, a reality. Now more than ever, with an unprecedented mobilization all over the world to implement and enhance climate actions, advances in science are needed to inform the negotiations and guide political choices to raise climate ambition. This article proposes several areas where scientific communities could help to implement the Paris Agreement and promote low carbon, climate-resilient economies and societies. In doing so, it focuses on the role of science in several key areas. Firstly, the article explores the relationship between the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the new climate regime, with a focus on the 1.5°C special report and future global stocktakes. The article then considers how science can contribute to the preparation of long-term low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission development strategies, before focusing on the role of science in advancing on adaptation issues. Now more than ever, scientific advances and inputs are needed to strengthen the upward revision of ambition, and inform sound concrete actions.Policy relevanceThe climate change negotiations have always been informed by science; the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 benefitted from the fifth assessment report of the IPCC released a few months before COP21. The new era of global climate policy after the entry into force of the Paris Agreement will require stronger interactions between scientists and policy makers. This ‘perspectives’ article proposes, from the point of view of the former French Presidency of COP21, areas where links and interactions could be strengthened to help implement the Paris Agreement, and to place science at the centre of the transformation towards low emission and resilient societies.

Does History Repeat Itself? Business Cycle and Industry Returns

Industries with higher historical business cycle regime Sharpe ratios (RSR) have higher regime-dependent expected returns. Conditional on whether output gap is positive or negative, an out-of-sample long-high-RSR and short-low-RSR sector rotation strategy generates 14.02% annualized alpha in Fama-French five-factor model during 1985-2014. Industry momentum and related anomalies are unlikely to be the source of alpha. Firms in long portfolios have stronger fundamentals, more upward analyst forecast revisions, and more positive forecast errors. Our results suggest that investors don't fully incorporate business cycle variation in cash flow growth and highlight the importance of business cycle on the cross-section of industry returns.

Electrification, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act and the Decline in Investment Expenditure in 1931–1932: Testing the Excess-Capacity Hypothesis

Beaudreau (1996) argued that the decline in investment expenditure in the early 1930s was the result of two factors, namely the electrification of U.S. manufacturing in the 1910s and 1920s which had resulted in significant excess capacity, and secondly, to the failure of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Bill in October 1929 to be passed by the Senate, resulting in (i) the Stock Market Crash in October 1929 and (ii) the ensuing precipitous decline in investment expenditure which touched off the Great Depression. In short, the manufacturing sector in the late 1920s found itself with excess capacity, prompting Senator Reed Smoot and the Republican Party to propose another upward revision of the tariff schedule. The failure to deliver on this promise led to the Crash and the ensuing decline in investment expenditure, the cumulative effect of which led to the Great Depression. This paper tests this hypothesis using two-digit industry investment data. As electrification varied considerably across industries it would stand to reason that sectors that electrified the most would have witnessed the largest decreases in investment expenditure (plant and equipment), owing to the presence of excess capacity. The results confirm this hypothesis, leading us to conclude that electrification-based excess capacity may have been an important cause of the downturn in 1930 and 1931.

Product market advertising, heterogeneous beliefs, and the long-run performance of initial public offerings

We study the long-run effects of product market advertising on the equity of firms conducting initial public offerings (IPOs). We find that firms going public with a greater extent of advertising prior to their IPOs are valued higher both in the IPO as well as in the immediate aftermarket, are associated with greater upward price revisions from the pre-IPO filing range means, and have smaller long-run post-IPO stock returns. The above results hold even after controlling for the effects of investor attention, as proxied by the pre-IPO media coverage received by firms going public. We show, using a number of additional tests, that the above findings are consistent with the implications of the heterogeneous beliefs theories of Miller (1977), Harrison and Kreps (1978), and Morris (1996), along with an assumption that product market advertising increases the heterogeneity in outside investor beliefs about firms going public.

Bottom‐simulating reflector dynamics at Arctic thermogenic gas provinces: An example from Vestnesa Ridge, offshore west Svalbard

AbstractThe Vestnesa Ridge comprises a >100 km long sediment drift located between the western continental slope of Svalbard and the Arctic mid‐ocean ridges. It hosts a deep water (>1000 m) gas hydrate and associated seafloor seepage system. Near‐seafloor headspace gas compositions and its methane carbon isotopic signature along the ridge indicate a predominance of thermogenic gas sources feeding the system. Prediction of the base of the gas hydrate stability zone for theoretical pressure and temperature conditions and measured gas compositions results in an unusual underestimation of the observed bottom‐simulating reflector (BSR) depth. The BSR is up to 60 m deeper than predicted for pure methane and measured gas compositions with >99% methane. Models for measured gas compositions with >4% higher‐order hydrocarbons result in a better BSR approximation. However, the BSR remains >20 m deeper than predicted in a region without active seepage. A BSR deeper than predicted is primarily explained by unaccounted spatial variations in the geothermal gradient and by larger amounts of thermogenic gas at the base of the gas hydrate stability zone. Hydrates containing higher‐order hydrocarbons form at greater depths and higher temperatures and contribute with larger amounts of carbons than pure methane hydrates. In thermogenic provinces, this may imply a significant upward revision (up to 50% in the case of Vestnesa Ridge) of the amount of carbon in gas hydrates.

Predicting Early Data Revisions to U.S. GDP and the Effects of Releases on Equity Markets

The effects of data uncertainty on real-time decision-making can be reduced by predicting data revisions to U.S. GDP growth. We show that survey forecasts efficiently predict the revision implicit in the second estimate of GDP growth, but that forecasting models incorporating monthly economic indicators and daily equity returns provide superior forecasts of the data revision implied by the release of the third estimate. We use forecasting models to measure the impact of surprises in GDP announcements on equity markets, and to analyze the effects of anticipated future revisions on announcement-day returns. We show that the publication of better than expected third-release GDP figures provides a boost to equity markets, and if future upward revisions are expected, the effects are enhanced during recessions.

Determinants of house buyers’ expected holding periods in boom and bust markets in California

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the determinants of homeowners’ planned holding periods. Real estate market is known for displaying buying and selling behavior that does not conform to traditional economic theories such as rational expectation or expected utility. Mounting evidence of anomalous observations appear to be supported by other theories, such as prospect theory, which in particular helps explain the disposition effect – sellers are too quick to sell when prices are climbing and hold on to properties longer when prices are plummeting. While this evidence is widely documented in housing studies based on data on realized holding periods (i.e. ex post), this study explores factors that may motivate homeowners to alter their expected holding horizons (i.e. ex ante) to form new preferred holding periods that may be shorter or longer than those planned during house search.Design/methodology/approachThe empirical study uses data collected from two cross-section surveys of recent homebuyers in rising and declining housing markets in Southern California in 2004-2005 and 2007-2008, respectively.FindingsThe empirical results demonstrate that in addition to the financial characteristics of the recent homebuyer, the characteristics of the buying experience – non-monetary, such as the realized search duration, and monetary, such as perception of negative or positive premium paid for the house relative to its market value – have a statistically significant effect on the holding horizon revision. The data strongly indicate that the perception of having overpaid increases the likelihood of upward revision of the original holding horizon. This effect is stronger in the declining than in the rising market – a crucial finding that mirrors the disposition effect.Originality/valueThis study sheds new light on what may contribute to the disposition effect in housing markets that has not yet been investigated in past literature. The novel approach here is to look at how different house price environments may affect homeowners’ holding periods ex ante when they begin, rather than ex post when already realized.

Erratum: Corrigendum: Upward revision of global fossil fuel methane emissions based on isotope database

Nature 538, 88–91 (2016); doi:10.1038/nature19797 In this Letter, Supplementary Figs 10 and 12 were not updated. The analyses, calculations, and text are correct. The Supplementary Information to this Corrigendum contains the corrected Supplementary Figs 10 and 12. In Supplementary Fig. 10a the blueline was about 30 Tg of CH4 per year too low, and represents results from a previous model version.

The Effects of Disclosure and Analyst Regulations on the Relevance of Analyst Characteristics for Explaining Analyst Forecast Accuracy

AbstractWe posit and find an effect of disclosure and analyst reporting regulations implemented from 2000 through 2003 (including Regulation Fair Disclosure, the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act and the Global Settlement Act) on the importance of analyst and forecast characteristics for analyst forecast accuracy. Following the enactment of these regulations, more experienced analysts and All‐Star analysts do not maintain their superior forecast accuracy, and analysts employed by large brokerage houses perform worse than other analysts. In addition, we find a decrease in the importance of analyst effort, the number of industries and firms followed, days elapsed since the last forecast, and forecast horizon. While the importance of bold upward forecast revisions does not change, bold downward revisions lose their relevance for forecast accuracy after 2003. Finally, we find an increase in the importance of prior forecast accuracy. We find that the importance of these characteristics varies with the precision of publicly available information. Specifically, the decrease in the importance of most analyst and forecast characteristics and the increase in the importance of prior forecast accuracy are greater when the precision of publicly available information is low. Overall, our results suggest that the positive effects of experience, effort, brokerage house size and All‐Star status on forecast accuracy in the pre‐regulation period were because of the information advantages that these analysts enjoyed (rather than their ability to generate private information). In contrast, our results suggest that prior forecast accuracy is related to analysts’ ability to generate private information.

Comment on “Was atmospheric CO2 capped at 1000 ppm over the past 300 million years?” by McElwain J. C. et al. [Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol. 441 (2016) 653–658

Franks et al. (2014) developed a model for estimating the concentration of atmospheric CO2 (ca) that can be applied to most stomata-bearing plant fossils. In a recent paper, McElwain et al. (2016a) proposed changes to two of the key inputs: mesophyll conductance to CO2 (gm) and CO2 assimilation rate at a known ca (A0). These proposed changes lead to increases in the model-estimates of ca. Here we show a lack of support for these proposed changes. First, the downward revision of gm is the result of a mathematical error by McElwain et al. (2016a) when describing the relationship between CO2 assimilation rate (An) and gm. Once corrected, values for gm are very similar to the values recommended by Franks et al. (2014). Second, the proposed ~2-fold upward revision of A0 is not supported by data from extant analogs or by hydraulic constraints from fossils. Moreover, the modelled estimates of An from Franks and Beerling (2009) are in fact most consistent with the modelled An in Franks et al. (2014) using their recommended A0 values, not those proposed by McElwain et al. (2016a). These results provide further support for the strategy of model implementation outlined in Franks et al. (2014).

Direct oceanic emissions unlikely to account for the missing source of atmospheric carbonyl sulfide

Abstract. The climate active trace-gas carbonyl sulfide (OCS) is the most abundant sulfur gas in the atmosphere. A missing source in its atmospheric budget is currently suggested, resulting from an upward revision of the vegetation sink. Tropical oceanic emissions have been proposed to close the resulting gap in the atmospheric budget. We present a bottom-up approach including (i) new observations of OCS in surface waters of the tropical Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans and (ii) a further improved global box model to show that direct OCS emissions are unlikely to account for the missing source. The box model suggests an undersaturation of the surface water with respect to OCS integrated over the entire tropical ocean area and, further, global annual direct emissions of OCS well below that suggested by top-down estimates. In addition, we discuss the potential of indirect emission from CS2 and dimethylsulfide (DMS) to account for the gap in the atmospheric budget. This bottom-up estimate of oceanic emissions has implications for using OCS as a proxy for global terrestrial CO2 uptake, which is currently impeded by the inadequate quantification of atmospheric OCS sources and sinks.

Russian Industry in October 2016: Cautious Optimism Inspired by Sales

There are hopes for industrial recovery from stagnation in Russia, according to analysis of the results of a survey that was carried out by the Gaidar Institute in October 2016. A positive shift in real sales dynamics coupled with slowly upgraded forecasts for the same is supplemented by a moderate, albeit positive, recovery of industrial production growth rates and a likely upward revision in assessments of finished product stocks. No visible positive shifts in output plans have been seen to date.

The Impact of Go‐Shop Provisions in Merger Agreements

We examine whether go‐shop provisions in merger agreements are used to benefit target shareholders or for agency/entrenchment reasons. We find that go‐shop provisions are more likely in deals involving the negotiation selling method, financial buyers and all cash financing, and in targets with less valuation uncertainty. We confirm that go‐shops have a positive association with the initial offer premium. Results suggest that deals with go‐shop provisions are more likely to have a competing bid and an upward revision of the initial offer premium. Collectively, our results indicate that go‐shops are effective contractual devices used to further target shareholder interests.

Returns to buying upward revision and selling downward revision stocks

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of earnings forecast revisions by equity analysts in predicting Canadian stock returns Design/methodology/approach The sample covers 420 Canadian firms over the period 1998-2009. It analyses investors’ reactions to 27,271 upward revisions and 32,005 downward revisions of analysts’ forecasts for Canadian quoted companies. To test whether analysts’ earnings forecast revisions affect stock return continuation, forecast revision portfolios similar to Jegadeesh and Titman (2001) are constructed. The paper analyses the returns gained from a trading strategy based on buying the strong upward revisions portfolio and short selling the strong downward revisions portfolio. It also separates the sample into upward and downward revisions. Findings The authors find that new information in the form of analyst forecast revisions is not impounded efficiently into stock prices. Significant returns persist for a trading strategy that buys stocks with recent upward revisions and short sells stocks with recent downward revisions. Good news is impounded into stock prices more slowly than bad news. Post-earnings forecast revisions drift is negatively related to analyst coverage. The effect is strongest for stocks with greatest number of upward revisions. The introduction of the better disclosure standards has made the Canadian stock market more efficient. Originality/value The paper adds to the limited evidence on the effect of analyst forecast revisions on the returns of Canadian stocks. It sheds light on the importance of analysts’ earnings forecast information and offers support for the investor conservatism and information diffusion hypotheses. It also shows how policy can improve market efficiency.

Thermal evolution of Earth with magnesium precipitation in the core

Vigorous convection in Earth's core powers our global magnetic field, which has survived for over three billion years. In this study, we calculate the rate of entropy production available to drive the dynamo throughout geologic time using one-dimensional parameterizations of the evolution of Earth's core and mantle. To prevent a thermal catastrophe in models with realistic Urey ratios, we avoid the conventional scaling for plate tectonics in favor of one featuring reduced convective vigor for hotter mantle. We present multiple simulations that capture the effects of uncertainties in key parameters like the rheology of the lower mantle and the overall thermal budget. Simple scaling laws imply that the heat flow across the core/mantle boundary was elevated by less than a factor of two in the past relative to the present. Another process like the precipitation of magnesium-bearing minerals is therefore required to sustain convection prior to the nucleation of the inner core roughly one billion years ago, especially given the recent, upward revision to the thermal conductivity of the core. Simulations that include precipitation lack a dramatic increase in entropy production associated with the formation of the inner core, complicating attempts to determine its age using paleomagnetic measurements of field intensity. Because mantle dynamics impose strict limits on the amount of heat extracted from the core, we find that the addition of radioactive isotopes like potassium-40 implies less entropy production today and in the past. On terrestrial planets like Venus with more sluggish mantle convection, even precipitation of elements like magnesium may not sustain a dynamo if cooling rates are too slow.

CLUSTERING OF LOCAL GROUP DISTANCES: PUBLICATION BIAS OR CORRELATED MEASUREMENTS? IV. THE GALACTIC CENTER

ABSTRACT Aiming at deriving a statistically well-justified Galactic Center distance, R 0, and reducing any occurrence of publication bias, we compiled the most comprehensive and most complete database of Galactic Center distances available to date, containing 273 new or revised R 0 estimates published since records began in 1918 October until 2016 June. We separate our R 0 compilation into direct and indirect distance measurements. The latter include a large body of estimates that rely on centroid determinations for a range of tracer populations, as well as measurements based on kinematic observations of objects at the solar circle, combined with a mass and/or rotational model of the Milky Way. Careful assessment of the Galactic Center distances resulting from orbital modeling and statistical parallax measurements in the Galactic nucleus yields our final Galactic Center distance recommendation of . The centroid-based distances are in good agreement with this recommendation. Neither the direct measurements nor the post-1990 centroid-based distance determinations suggest that publication bias may be important. The kinematics-based distance estimates are affected by significantly larger uncertainties, but they can be used to constrain the Galaxy’s rotation velocity at the solar galactocentric distance, . Our results imply that the International-Astronomical-Union-recommended Galactic Center distance ( ) needs a downward adjustment, while its recommendation ( km s−1) requires a substantial upward revision.

Workers' Spending Response to the 2011 Payroll Tax Cuts

This paper investigates workers' spending response to the 2011 payroll tax cuts. Respondents were surveyed at the beginning and end of 2011, which allows the comparison of ex ante and ex post reported use of the extra income. While workers on average intended to spend 14 percent of their tax cut income, they ex post reported spending 36 percent of the funds. This pattern of higher spending ex post is shared across all demographic groups. Differences across workers in this shift to greater ex post spending are largely unexplained by differences in either present bias or unanticipated shocks, so in the end the upward revision in spending remains a puzzle. (JEL D12, D91, E21, H24, H31)

The impact of HIV testing on subjective mortality and investments in children: Experimental evidence From Malawi

We investigate the causal effect of HIV testing on subjective mortality and investment in children using experimental data from Malawi. When a wife’s husband learns his negative HIV status, we see an upward revision in a woman’s subjective mortality risk and less household investment in children. There is no statistically significant effect of the woman learning her HIV negative status.

Upward revision of global fossil fuel methane emissions based on isotope database.

Methane has the second-largest global radiative forcing impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gases after carbon dioxide, but our understanding of the global atmospheric methane budget is incomplete. The global fossil fuel industry (production and usage of natural gas, oil and coal) is thought to contribute 15 to 22 per cent of methane emissions to the total atmospheric methane budget. However, questions remain regarding methane emission trends as a result of fossil fuel industrial activity and the contribution to total methane emissions of sources from the fossil fuel industry and from natural geological seepage, which are often co-located. Here we re-evaluate the global methane budget and the contribution of the fossil fuel industry to methane emissions based on long-term global methane and methane carbon isotope records. We compile the largest isotopic methane source signature database so far, including fossil fuel, microbial and biomass-burning methane emission sources. We find that total fossil fuel methane emissions (fossil fuel industry plus natural geological seepage) are not increasing over time, but are 60 to 110 per cent greater than current estimates owing to large revisions in isotope source signatures. We show that this is consistent with the observed global latitudinal methane gradient. After accounting for natural geological methane seepage, we find that methane emissions from natural gas, oil and coal production and their usage are 20 to 60 per cent greater than inventories. Our findings imply a greater potential for the fossil fuel industry to mitigate anthropogenic climate forcing, but we also find that methane emissions from natural gas as a fraction of production have declined from approximately 8 per cent to approximately 2 per cent over the past three decades.