Upstream Enterprises Research Articles

Who is the best insurance buyer? Financing the capital-constrained manufacturer with trade credit insurance

Reverse factoring is a widely used finance solution for capital-constrained upstream enterprises. To effectively avoid the risk of unpaid debt, the integration of trade credit insurance (TCI) into factoring finance, encompassing reverse factoring, has gained increasing popularity. Motivated by the practice that both manufacturers and factors can act as TCI buyers, this study examines the decision analysis in two TCI schemes, i.e. the manufacturer-insured TCI (MI) and the factor-insured TCI (FI), on optimal decisions and profits of supply chain participants through game analysis. We find that when the manufacturer is highly capital-constrained, compared with the benchmark scenario without insurance, both MI and FI can generate higher profits for the retailer and the manufacturer. Through comparative analysis, we show that the manufacturer’s initial capital and unit production cost affect participants’ preferences in insurance options. Specifically, the retailer prefers MI if the unit production cost is high and prefers FI otherwise, and the factor chooses MI if the unit production cost is relatively low and the capital constraint is relatively high and prefers FI otherwise. Furthermore, FI scheme can achieve Pareto improvement for all participants if the manufacturer’s capital constraint is at a medium level.

Market Risk of Lithium Industry Chain—Evidence from Listed Companies

Lithium, a crucial raw material for new energy vehicles, is experiencing significant market price fluctuations due to escalating geopolitical conflicts, periodic mismatches in supply and demand, and increased attention to lithium resources from countries around the world. These factors may adversely affect the development of the new energy vehicle industry. This paper adopts the TVP-VAR-DY model, which measures dynamic spillover effects by allowing for variance changes through the estimation of a stochastic Kalman filter, thereby measuring risk spillover among upstream and downstream firms in the lithium industry chain. We selected 16 listed companies and six regional financial markets as the research sample, with the sample period from 4 July 2018, to 30 June 2023. The main conclusions are as follows: Between 2018 and 2020, the overall risk spillover in the lithium industry chain demonstrated a declining trend, though it experienced a sudden surge in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. This increase was followed by a gradual decline as the global economy improved and market stability was restored, leading to a reduction in risk aversion. Regarding the reception of risk spillovers, upstream firms exhibited a generally consistent level of directional risk spillovers, whereas downstream firms experienced more significant fluctuations. Chinese firms exhibited a higher level of received risk spillovers compared to their international counterparts, with less variation in these spillovers. From the perspective of risk spillover effects, significant variations were observed between firms in both the upstream and downstream markets. Chinese firms exhibited a higher level of risk inflow than international firms, with more pronounced changes in risk spillovers. Upstream enterprises should enhance their market competitiveness to mitigate the adverse effects of economic uncertainty. Downstream enterprises can alleviate the rise in raw material costs resulting from market price fluctuations through strategic cooperation. Additionally, the government should increase the market supply of resources, which will contribute to the establishment of a more robust lithium industry chain system.

Sustainable Operation and Management of a Dynamic Supply Chain under the Framework of a Community with a Shared Future for Mankind

The values of a community with a shared future for mankind include the views of common interests, sustainable development, and global governance. This article will fully consider introducing the value concept of a community with a shared future into the operation and management of dynamic supply chains. Based on the optimal information fusion mechanism of artificial intelligence, this article aims to examine the operation and management of dynamic supply chains within the framework of a community with a shared future for mankind. The core idea is to consider the common interests among enterprises, establish a global collaborative operation concept for upstream, midstream, and downstream enterprises, and achieve the goal of sustainable development. Firstly, a type of composite dynamic supply chain model is considered, in which the total inventory of each node in the supply chain is further subdivided into raw material inventory and finished product inventory. At the same time, we have considered factors such as the signing of procurement contracts between core enterprises and upstream enterprises, as well as the signing of supply contracts between core enterprises and downstream enterprises. Secondly, the static and dynamic monitoring information of the enterprise has been established. We use steady-state Kalman filtering theory to obtain dynamic reference signals for upstream enterprises, core enterprises, and downstream enterprises. Based on the optimal information fusion processing mechanism of artificial intelligence, the coefficient weighting method is used to obtain the optimal fusion signals of upstream enterprises, core enterprises, and downstream enterprises. Once again, through high-quality switching strategies, enterprises can achieve in-order switching, improve production efficiency, reduce downtime, enhance their competitiveness and responsiveness, and transform the dynamic supply chain, including order switching, into a discrete-time linear switching system for processing. Fourthly, sufficient conditions, robustness analysis results, and inventory control criteria for the solvability of dynamic supply chain H∞ with order switching are provided. Finally, data analysis is conducted using historical order information from three fruit companies to verify the validity and feasibility of the conclusions in this article and to improve the performance of the dynamic supply chain system. The research findings of this article enrich the exploration of the operation and management of dynamic supply chains and the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind.

Research on pricing strategies for competitive green supply chain based on corporate social responsibility

With the increasing public awareness of environmental protection, corporate social responsibility has become an important component of sustainable development and competitive advantage for many enterprises. Although there are many studies on corporate social responsibility in the supply chain, there is still a lack of research on the impact of corporate social responsibility on various decision-makers in the competitive green supply chain dominated by upstream enterprises. Therefore, taking into account the greenness and corporate social responsibility, the paper proposes three Stackelberg game models with the two-echelon supply chain consisting of two competing manufacturers and one socially responsible retailer. We develop a series of propositions and corollaries to determine the optimal solutions and offer some managerial insights. The main novelties and contributions of the paper can be demonstrated in two aspects. First, the paper simultaneously considers the impact of competition intensity and CSR level on wholesale prices, retail prices and greenness level. Second, the paper discusses the impact of two manufacturers with different market positions investing in green products on the profits and utility of supply chain members. Numerical illustrations prove that the level of corporate social responsibility is negatively correlated with retailer profitability and the retailer achieve the highest profits when sub-dominant manufacturer produces green products.

Research on the Production Capacity Evaluation of Prefabricated Component Manufacturing Enterprises

Due to the industrialization of the construction sector, enterprises that manufacture prefabricated components are developing rapidly. Because the production capacity of each enterprise varies immensely, the upstream enterprises are unable to match the component manufacturing enterprises that are suitable for the supply target. With respect to the product capacity, scientific and accurate evaluations are crucial. The authors preliminarily determined factors that impact the production capacity of components and considered a literature review and the inspection results of component manufacturing enterprises. By performing a thorough investigation and analysis, they constructed the index system for evaluating the production capacity of enterprises that manufacture prefabricated components, and each index was interpreted. To determine the weight of the evaluation index, an analytic hierarchy process was utilized; furthermore, the characteristics of each grade were described, and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was built. Moreover, to empirically analyze the built model, the authors selected a construction company and analyzed 127 questionnaires filled in by employees at all the organizational levels related to PCT production and to 34 evaluation results of experts from standard quota research institutions in various provinces. The results of the two methods revealed the following: This enterprise level is the “Reinforcement level” (level 3). The evaluation results are consistent with the empirical results of the model established herein, which verifies its feasibility.

The research of river basin ecological compensation based on water emissions trading mechanism.

By integrating the successful case of the European Union emissions trading system, this study proposes a water emissions trading system, a novel method of reducing water pollution. Assuming that upstream governments allocate initial quotas to upstream businesses as the compensation standard, this approach defines the foundational principles of market trading mechanisms and establishes a robust watershed ecological compensation model to address challenges in water pollution prevention. To be specific, the government establishes a reasonable initial quota for upstream enterprises, which can be used to limit the emissions of upstream pollution. When enterprises exceed their allocated emissions quota, they face financial penalties. Conversely, these emissions rights can be transformed into profitable assets by participating in the trading market as a form of ecological compensation. Numerical simulations demonstrate that various pollutant emissions from upstream businesses will have various effects on the profits of other businesses. Businesses in the upstream region received reimbursement from the assigned emission rights through the market mechanism, demonstrating that ecological compensation for the watershed can be achieved through the market mechanism. This novel market trading system aims at controlling emissions management from the perspectives of individual enterprises and ultimately optimizing the aquatic environment.

Who should own the data? The impact of data value creation on data ownership

With the popularization and application of the Industrial Internet of Things, equipment manufacturers as upstream enterprises can collect in real time the operational data of their downstream enterprise customers’ devices. As the notion of “data as an asset” gains acceptance, enterprises increasingly value the data value chain. In the current market mechanism, ownership of data is not clear, which hinders the creation of data value. This study establishes a theoretical analytical model that considers the influences of the benefits and losses derived from value co-creation on claiming data ownership. Benefits obtained by upstream and downstream enterprises through data and losses incurred owing to data breaches are distinct, which impact their investments in data security and data authorization. Results reveal that investments in data security by upstream businesses are affected by benefits and losses and also correlated with data ownership. Conversely, if the downstream enterprise owns the data, its expected benefits can inversely affect the upstream's data security investment—increasing the downstream's benefits can lead to reduced security investment by the upstream, even though other factors may encourage the upstream to invest more in data security. The impact of who owns the data on the security investments of both upstream and downstream enterprises becomes less pronounced when the expected benefits or potential losses for one side grow. Lastly, the current study provides guiding principles for upstream businesses to claim data ownership, thereby facilitating the exploration and utilization of data value co-creation opportunities for upstream and downstream businesses.

Research on optimization of supply chain inventory system under contingency conditions

A solution combining state observer (SOB) with Discrete Sliding Mode Control (DSMC) is presented to solve the problem of inventory shortage or backlog in upstream and downstream enterprises of the supply chain caused by contingency conditions. Firstly, based on the specific sales mode of the supply chain system and the logical relationship of inventory parameters, the corresponding dynamic model of the inventory system is established under reasonable assumptions, and relevant parameters are introduced to represent the impact of contingencies, and the dynamic model of inventory system under contingencies is established with the bullwhip effect. Then, the discrete sliding mode control (SOB-DSMC) based on the state observer is designed to compensate for the impact of emergencies on the supply chain inventory system adaptively while ensuring the stability of the system. Finally, based on market research and reasonable assumptions, simulation experiments are carried out. The simulation results show that the designed control system can better cope with emergencies in different situations, and can significantly improve the supply chain within 5 days after emergencies occur. The inventory situation of upstream and downstream enterprises in the system has reduced the maximum inventory fluctuations of manufacturers, distributors, and retailers by 77.13%, 60.67%, and 44.61% respectively, and fully restored to normal operation within 20 days, effectively solving the inventory backlog of upstream and downstream enterprises in the supply chain and out-of-stock issues. It can be seen that the SOB-DSMC method can guide the upstream enterprises in the supply chain to formulate reasonable production, shipping, and purchasing strategies, and provide theoretical reference and coping methods for the supply chain system to smoothly survive emergencies.

Effect mechanism and efficiency evaluation of financial support on technological innovation in the new energy vehicles’ industrial chain

Financial support is of crucial importance for driving technological innovation within the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry. By using the data of listed NEV enterprise in China from 2016 to 2020, the panel regression model is employed to explore the effect mechanism of financial support on technology innovation. Furthermore, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Malmquist index method are applied to assess the financial support efficiency from static and dynamic perspectives, respectively. The results indicate that: (1) Both market-oriented and policy-oriented financial support significantly contribute to technology innovation across the entire NEV industrial chain, with R&D investments playing a critical mediating role. (2) Upstream and midstream enterprises are mainly supported by bank credit, while downstream enterprises rely more on equity and government support. (3) Upstream enterprises have the highest financial support efficiency and stable total factor productivity (TFP), while midstream and downstream enterprises are affected by external environments, leading to a gradual decline in TFP. Finally, it is suggested to enhance the innovation level of the NEV industry through building a multi-level market-oriented financial support system, improving the policy support mechanism and promoting industrial chains coordination development. This study sheds light on the importance of targeted financial support strategies to foster sustainable innovation in the NEV industry.

Integrated optimization for utilizing iron and steel industry’s waste heat with urban heating based on exergy analysis

A substantial quantity of waste heat resources generated in iron and steel manufacturing process (ISMP) can fulfill certain demand for urban heating. However, the waste heat utilization level of different iron and steel enterprises varies a lot and few studies have combined the upstream enterprise’s production with downstream waste heat utilization for discussion. By establishing an optimization model based on material balance, thermodynamic laws and reaction mechanism of the ISMP, this study firstly obtain the minimum exergy loss and the corresponding production cost ＆ exergy efficiency. The total exergy loss of ISMP is reduced from 8413.19 MJ/t-MS to 7669.27 MJ/t-MS. The exergy efficiency of the whole process is increased from 63.75 % to 65.46 % and the total waste heat potential reaches 1471.25 MJ/t-MS. It is found that coke ratio, air leakage rate, scrap steel ratio, etc. have great impact on exergy loss of ISMP. Then, the optimization and evaluation of the waste heat utilization are carried out by establishing models with taking urban heating into consideration. The available external heat supply is 813.15 to 853.55 MJ/t-MS and the enterprise's heating load can reach 229.23–251.47 MW, which allow to supply heat for an area of 5.46–5.93 million m2. Finally, the problem of waste heat instability in the heating process is briefly discussed and some solution strategies are proposed to overcome this defect.

Government subsidies, market competition and the TFP of new energy enterprises

Exploring the relationship between government subsidies, market competition, and the total factor productivity (TFP) of new energy enterprises will help countries optimize renewable energy support policies in the context of carbon neutrality constraints and energy demand growth. Based on the panel data of 145 listed new energy enterprises from 2007 to 2020, this paper investigates how government subsidies affect the TFP of new energy enterprises and the moderating effects of market competition. Our main findings are as follows: (1) Government subsidies positively affect the TFP of new energy enterprises. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that government subsidies have a larger effect on the TFP of non-SOEs, midstream and upstream enterprises, and smaller enterprises. (2) Industry market competition negatively moderates the effect of government subsidies on TFP, while enterprise competition power has a positive moderating effect. The marginal effect of government subsidies is significantly positive only when the industry market competition is below a certain threshold or the enterprise competitive power exceeds a certain threshold. (3) Government subsidies enhance the TFP by promoting invention and utility model innovation of new energy enterprises. In addition, market competition significantly moderates the relationship between government subsidies and utility model innovation, thereby moderating the marginal effect of government subsidies on TFP. The findings contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between government support, market competition, and new energy development.

CSR for National Growth and Global Stability within the Era of Dual-carbon

At present, the construction of ecological civilization has entered the development strategy of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality, which has promoted the overall green transformation of economy and society. Considering the fact that the existing literature seldom studies the fulfillment of corporate social responsibility (CSR) by each subject in logistics operation under the background of "double carbon", this paper systematically analyzes the conflicts among upstream enterprises, downstream enterprises and multiple government subjects in supply chain in fulfilling CSR in logistics operation by using F-H method. The results show that, in theory, the conflict problem can get four globally stable outcomes. Combined with the differences of national policies in practice and the different value propositions of each subject in logistics operation, the global stability outcomes chosen by upstream and downstream enterprises and the government will be different. According to the current "double carbon" goal, the common stability outcomes of all parties to the conflict are further analyzed. The results show that the parties to the conflict are most likely to choose the overall stable outcome: the upstream and downstream enterprises in the supply chain fulfill corporate social responsibility (CSR), and the government subsidizes the enterprises. Based on this, some suggestions are put forward for the development of logistics enterprises.

The effects of government subsidies on the economic profits of hydrogen energy enterprises – An analysis based on A-share listed enterprises in China

The systematic development of the hydrogen energy industry is inseparable from government subsidies and collaboration among enterprises in the industrial chain. Unlike existing studies on the overall impact of government subsidies on enterprise economic profits, this study discusses the impact of research and development (R&D) and production subsidies on the economic profits of upstream and midstream enterprises in the hydrogen energy industry chain. The empirical results based on hydrogen-related A-share listed enterprises from 2011 to 2019 in China show that the government's R&D and production subsidies have effectively improved the economic benefits of hydrogen energy enterprises. In particular, government R&D subsidies significantly improve the economic profits of upstream enterprises, whereas production subsidies have insignificant effects. For midstream enterprises that produce hydrogen fuel cells, the economic effect of government production subsidies is more significant than that of R&D subsidies. The results of this study may provide references for optimizing the distribution of subsidies in the hydrogen energy industry chain and promoting the sound development of the hydrogen energy industry worldwide.

Profit allocation on a four-echelon supply chain in perspective of cooperative games on augmenting systems

Profit allocation is an important research topic in supply chain enterprises, where the rationality of allocation determines the stability of their cooperative relationships. This paper focuses on the profit allocation of the supply chain dominated by upstream enterprises. To achieve this goal, a general four-echelon supply chain is constructed. By analyzing the drawbacks of the existing profit allocation methods, we propose three new Shapley values to deal with the different risk attitudes of players. Through theoretical discussions, we can see that the proposed new Shapley values endow upstream participants with profit priority. It shows that the new profit distribution mechanisms suit supply chains dominated by upstream enterprises. We also provide an application example to check the concrete distribution results of the proposed new Shapley values and to compare the experimental results of the proposed new Shapley values with the existing Shapley values to deal with Profit allocation on a four-echelon supply chain. As a result, the proposed new Shapley values outperform the previous Shapley values to deal with the profit allocation on a four-echelon supply chain from the perspective of cooperative games on augmenting systems.

Evolutionary Game and Numerical Simulation of Enterprises’ Green Technology Innovation: Based on the Credit Sales Financing Service of Supply Chain

In the context of economic transformation and ecological civilization construction, breaking financing constraints and carrying out green technology innovation has become an urgent task for enterprises to achieve green and sustainable development in China. As a financing method of the supply chain, can credit sales effectively promote enterprises’ green technology innovation? This paper constructs an evolutionary game model between upstream and downstream enterprises. Firstly, the interaction between credit sales and green technology innovation is explored through an evolutionary equilibrium analysis. Secondly, the influencing factors of credit sales and green technology innovation decisions are analyzed through a numerical simulation. The study found that: (1) Under the condition of evolutionary equilibrium, the credit sales of upstream enterprises and the green technology innovation of downstream enterprises can form a virtuous circle mode of “financing—income generation—benefit sharing”. That is, a win-win situation can be achieved through the internal circulation of the supply chain. (2) Profit distribution is one of the key issues in the game between upstream and downstream enterprises. The willingness of upstream enterprises to provide credit sales and downstream enterprises to carry out green technology innovation is positively related to the benefits they enjoy from green technology innovation. (3) The supervision cost is an obstacle for upstream enterprises’ credit sales. A practical and inexpensive account recovery guarantee mechanism is an effective way to improve the willingness of upstream enterprises to provide credit sales. (4) The government’s green subsidy is beneficial to the whole supply chain’s “credit sales—green technology innovation” mode, which not only directly stimulates downstream enterprises’ green technology innovation but also stimulates upstream enterprises’ credit sales through benefit sharing. This paper enriches the relevant research on green technology innovation of the supply chain and provides a reference for green technology innovation and financing interaction between upstream and downstream enterprises.

Industrial Policy and Technological Innovation of New Energy Vehicle Industry in China

Promoting the development of new energy vehicles is one of the important measures to ensure energy security and deal with global warming. Technological innovation is an inexhaustible driving force for the development of the new energy vehicle industry. This study considered listed enterprises in China’s new energy vehicle industry as research samples and used the fixed effect model to study the impact of government subsidies on the quantity and quality of technological innovation in the new energy vehicle industry. The empirical results show that government subsidies have a significant positive impact on the quantity of technological innovation in the new energy vehicle industry; however, government subsidies have no significant impact on the quality of technological innovation. Government subsidies increase the quantity of technological innovation in the new energy vehicle industry by increasing R&D investment, mitigating financing constraints, and improving the external attention of enterprises. Compared to downstream enterprises in the industrial chain, government subsidies have a better incentive effect on the technological innovation of upstream enterprises, which increases the number of patents and enhances the quality of utility model patents. Government subsidies have a better effect on promoting the quantity of technological innovation in large enterprises.

Occurrence Characteristics and Ecological Risk Assessment of Organophosphorus Compounds in a Wastewater Treatment Plant and Upstream Enterprises

Organophosphorus compounds have toxic effects on organisms and the ecosystem. Therefore, it is vital to monitor and control the effluent organophosphorus levels of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). This study analyzed the composition and concentration of organophosphorus compounds from the upstream enterprises of a WWTP and conducted ecological risk and toxicity assessments using ECOSAR (ecological structure activity relationship model), T.E.S.T (Toxicity Estimation Software Tool), and risk quotient (RQ) methods. A total of 14 organic phosphorus pollutants were detected in the effluent of the upstream enterprises and WWTP. The concentration of influent total organic phosphorus from the WWTP was 39.5 mg/L, and the effluent total organic phosphorus was merely 0.301 mg/L, indicating that good phosphorus removal was achieved in the WWTP. According to the acute and chronic toxicity analysis, the ECOSAR ecotoxicity assessment showed that 11 kinds of organophosphorus compounds were hazardous to fish, daphnia, and algae in different degrees. Among them, triphenyl phosphine (TPP) had a 96 hr LC50 of 1.00 mg/L for fish and is a substance with high acute toxicity. T.E.S.T evaluates the acute toxicity of each organophosphorus component and the bioconcentration factor (BCF). The evaluation results showed that the LC50 of TPP and octicizer were 0.39 and 0.098 mg/L, respectively, and the concentrations of these two organophosphorus compounds from the effluent of an environmental protection enterprise were as high as 30.4 mg/L and 0.735 mg/L, which exceeded the acute toxicity values and has led to serious hazards to aquatic organisms. The BCF values of each organophosphorus component in the upstream enterprises and the effluent of the WWTP were less than 2000, implying that there was no bioaccumulation effect on aquatic organisms. The developmental toxicity assessment demonstrated that there were nine types of organophosphorus compounds belonging to developmental toxicants, that the presence of developmental toxicants was found in the effluent of each upstream enterprise, and that triethyl phosphate (TEP) was the most common organophosphorus compound. Comparing the RQ of the effluent from various enterprises, it was found that the effluent from the environmental protection enterprise presented the highest degree of environmental hazard, mainly due to the higher toxicity of TEP and octicizer.

The configuring pathways of green technology advance, organizational strategy and policy environment for realizing low-carbon manufacturing from the perspective of simmelian tie: A qualitative comparative analysis of listed companies in China

Low-carbon manufacturing is an emerging industrial trend and an important way to achieve sustainable development. As the country with the largest manufacturing scale and carbon dioxide emissions, it is of great practical and theoretical significance to study China's low-carbon manufacturing issues. Based on the ternary analysis perspective of simmelian tie, this paper chooses to identify the influencing factors through the technology-organization-environment research framework, and derives the pathways of low-carbon manufacturing through the fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis method. The research results show that: (1) Under the low-carbon manufacturing goal, stable industrial chain structure and policy-sensitive are the formation reasons for the simmelian tie. (2) From the perspective of simmelian tie, low-carbon manufacturing will be influenced by the driving role of green technological advances, the supporting role of organizational strategies, and the regulatory role of the policy environment. (3) Manufacturing enterprises' low-carbon pathways are directly related to their industrial chain position. Compared with upstream enterprises, downstream enterprises have more diverse low-carbon manufacturing pathways. (4) Active governmental support can more effectively promote the realization of low-carbon manufacturing than environmental pressure.

China's solar photo-voltaic power generation industry policies analysis

Solar photovoltaic, as a new type of energy, is a clean, efficient energy that China strongly encourages and supports to use. With the proposal of the “Carbon-neutral” and “Carbon-peak” strategic goals, China’s photovoltaic power generation industry has developed rapidly in recent years. In order to support the development of China's photovoltaic power generation industry, both central and regional governments issued policies and measures. However, there are also some problems such as incomplete policies, monopoly of upstream enterprises, the inability of mutual transmission among various places, photovoltaic cell consumables and recycling. In order to solve the above problems, this paper focuses on the development background and characteristics of the solar photovoltaic power generation industry, systematically expounds on the evolution process of China’s photovoltaic energy generation industry policies at the national and local levels, and finds that the characteristics of the policies issued in the photovoltaic field in China are that subsidy policies dominate, and there are many subsidy policies aimed at the mid-stream and down-stream of the industrial chain. Besides that, there are also few policies for photovoltaic transmission between different places; In terms of benefits, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China has gradually increased, and the environment in China has indeed improved, but the upstream of the industrial chain has obvious interest concentration and monopoly. Therefore, this paper puts forward several policy recommendations to accelerate the high-quality development of China’s photovoltaic industry.

Valuation Analysis of New Energy Vehicle Industry Stock Price Based on HP-ARIMA Method

In recent years, new energy vehicles have become one of the mainstream trends in the global auto market. By analyzing the valuation of the stock price of the new energy automobile industry, the actual value of its stock can be found, thus providing a specific reference for investors. Based on this, this paper investigates the fluctuation of daily average stock prices using the HP-ARIMA method, and performs predictive analysis, robustness test and heterogeneity analysis on the given data. After separating the short-term fluctuations and long-term trends of daily average stock prices based on the HP filtering method, the predictions were made by the ARIMA model. The predicted results were tested for robustness by OLS regression and Tobit model, respectively, and the following findings were obtained: (1) Through the analysis of HP filtering method, the cyclical fluctuation of the stock price of the new energy automobile industry is relatively large, and upstream enterprises affect the middle and downstream enterprises to a certain extent. (2) The prediction analysis by ARIMA shows that the prediction accuracy of upstream enterprises' share prices is relatively high, and the prediction results have good robustness. (3) The regression analysis shows that the fit is good for upstream and downstream enterprises, and the change trend shows a positive correlation, while the midstream enterprises show the opposite trend.