Upper-level Trough Research Articles

Diagnosing Radial Ventilation in Dropsonde Observations of Hurricane Sam (2021)

Abstract This study presents a method to diagnose radial ventilation, the horizontal flux of relatively low-θe air into tropical cyclones, from dropsonde observations. We used this method to investigate ventilation changes over three consecutive sampling periods in Hurricane Sam (2021), which underwent substantial intensity changes over 3 days. During the first and last periods, coinciding with intensification, the ventilation was relatively small due to a lack of spatial correlation between radial flow and θe azimuthal asymmetries. During the second period, coinciding with weakening, the ventilation was relatively large. The increased ventilation was caused by greater shear associated with an upper-level trough, tilting the vortex, along with dry, low-θe air wrapping in upshear. The spatial correlation of the radial inflow and anomalously low-θe air resulted in large ventilation at mid- to upper levels. Additionally, at low to midlevels, there was evidence of mesoscale inflow of low-θe air in the stationary band complex. The location of these radial ventilation pathways and their effects on Sam’s intensity are consistent with previous idealized and real-case modeling studies. More generally, this method offers a way to monitor ventilation changes in tropical cyclones, particularly when there is full-troposphere sampling around and within a tropical cyclone’s core. Significance Statement Ventilation, the injection of relatively dry and/or cool air into a tropical cyclone, may weaken a storm. In contrast, the lack of ventilation is favorable for intensification. The purpose of this study is to present a method to diagnose ventilation using aircraft dropsonde observations. Using dropsonde observations collected in Hurricane Sam (2021), there was a period of increased lateral ventilation in two regions around the storm that coincided with when the storm rapidly weakened. The results suggest that monitoring ventilation from dropsonde observations, when available, may be useful for anticipating ventilation-induced intensity changes in tropical cyclones and further studying ventilation pathways.

Improving the Representation of Moisture and Convective Instability in Baroclinic-Wave Channel Simulations

Abstract We present an improved approach to generating moist baroclinically unstable background states for f-plane-channel simulations via potential vorticity (PV) inversion. Previous studies specified PV distributions with constant values in the troposphere and the stratosphere, but this produces unrealistic static-stability profiles that decrease sharply with height in the troposphere. Adding moisture to such environments can yield unrealistically large values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) even for reasonable relative humidity (RH) distributions. In our modified approach, we specify a PV distribution that increases with height in the troposphere and the stratosphere, yielding background states with more realistic values of static stability and CAPE. This modification produces environments that are better suited for representing moist processes, namely, deep convection, in idealized extratropical-cyclone simulations. Also, we present a method for introducing moisture that preserves a specified RH distribution while maintaining hydrostatic balance. Our approach allows for a large degree of control over the initial conditions, as background states with different jet strengths and shapes, average temperatures, moisture contents, or horizontal shears can easily be obtained without changing the underlying PV formula and inadvertently producing unreasonable values of static stability or CAPE. We demonstrate the characteristics of idealized extratropical cyclones developing in our background states by adding localized perturbations that represent an upper-level trough passing over a low-level frontal zone. In particular, we illustrate the impacts of horizontal shear, moisture, and grid spacing on baroclinic-wave development.

Comparison of kinetic energy conversion characteristics of two extreme precipitation episodes during persistent unusually heavy rainfall on 17–23 July 2021 in Henan, China

A persistent heavy rainfall event, contributed by two extreme episodes (P1 and P2), occurred in Henan province of China from 17 to 23 July 2021. An active mesoscale vortex was present in the lower troposphere, along with a shallow trough moving eastward in the upper troposphere. The budgets of rotational kinetic energy (KR) and divergent kinetic energy (KD) at distinct stages are investigated. The lower-level KR anomaly, related to the mesoscale vortex growth therein, was responsible for P1. However, the upper-troposphere KR was dominant and strong during the P2 stage, associated with an eastward-developing upper-level trough. Prior to both P1 and P2, active inner interaction between rotational and divergent winds presented, manifested as a rapid increase of KVRVD signals. KVRVD and precipitation had similar pattern distribution and consistent evolution tendency. Therefore, KVRVD might be a useful indicator for the occurrence and intensification of rainfall. Expect for two components of winds interaction, the external source feeding kinetic energy growth is also explored. For P1, APE (available potential energy)-> KD-> KR was the key path towards rotational kinetic energy, providing energy for mesoscale vortex growth in lower troposphere, which was favorable for the extreme episode of P1. Nevertheless, for P2 stage, APE acted as a direct energy source towards KR in upper troposphere, with higher efficiency (via APE-> KR) and thus stronger KR. This kind of difference in conversion path depended on the vertically-coupled degree between the lower-level mesoscale vortex and the upper-level trough, in addition to the rotational and divergent wind speed. Their tilting/upright configuration produced strong baroclinic/barotropic process, accelerating energy conversion of APE-> KD/APE-> KR via GD/GR (i.e., generating KD/KR by divergent/rotational winds crossing geopotential height contours, usually as a generator resulting from barotropic/baroclinic process). Therefore, kinetic energy budget may be a valuable tool for identifying key weather systems development and forecasting extreme rainfall episodes.

Comparative analysis of spatial transport characteristics of spring cold-front-type sandstorms in the Hexi Corridor

In this study, we investigate the spatial transport characteristics of cold-front-type sandstorms with different intensities in the Hexi Corridor based on the hourly observation data from 13 ground-based meteorological stations in the Hexi Corridor, the data in the upper and lower layers from the Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis And Process System, and the three-dimensional aerosol observation data of the Vertical Feature Mask product obtained from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization of the United States. The results show that the influence range and horizontal transport distance of cold-front-type sandstorms in the Hexi Corridor are determined by the intensity, thickness and width of the upper-level troughs and the intensity of cold fronts. Generally, cold fronts pass through the Hexi Corridor from noon to evening and stay in this region for a long time or move slowly, which is favorable to the horizontal long-distance transport of sandstorms. The intensity of the 200 hPa upper-level jets is directly proportional to both the influence range and transport distance of sandstorms which primarily occur on the left side of the exit area of an upper-level jet. The strengthening of upper-level jets induces the formation of the vertical circulation cell at middle and low levels. The ascending branch of the circulation cell lifts sand-dust particles from the surface to the upper layers, and the descending branch transports upper-level momentum to the near-surface. This circulation situation increases the near-surface wind speed and forms sandstorms. The occurrence time and descending branch of the secondary circulation cell caused by upper-level jets are important indicators for predicting the occurrence time and falling area of sandstorms. Dust aerosols are mainly concentrated at a height of 2–6 km,.,and they can reach the height of 12 km. When the dust is concentrated at the height of 2–8 km, and the wind speed of 500 hPa and 300 hPa reaches 28 and 32 m s− 1 or above respectively, the cold front sandstorm can realize the long distance transport of thousands of kilometers.

Atmospheric Rivers in South-Central Chile: Zonal and Tilted Events

The extratropical west coast of South America has one of the largest frequencies of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs), with dozens of events per season that account for ~50% of the annual precipitation and can produce extreme rainfall events in south-central Chile. Most ARs form an acute angle with the Andes, but, in some cases, the moist stream impinges nearly perpendicular to the mountains, referred to as zonal atmospheric rivers (ZARs). Enhanced surface-based and upper-air measurements in Concepcion (36.8° S), as well as numerical simulations, were used to characterize a ZAR and a meridionally oriented AR in July 2022. They represent extremes of the broad distribution of winter storms in this region and exhibit key features that were found in a composite analysis based on larger samples of ZARs and tilted ARs. The latter is associated with an upper-level trough, broad-scale ascent, extratropical cyclone, and cold front reaching southern Chile. Instead, ZARs are associated with tropospheric-deep, strong zonal flow and a stationary front across the South Pacific, with ascent restricted upstream of the Andes. Consequently, ZARs have minimum precipitation offshore but a marked orographic precipitation enhancement and exhibit relatively warm temperatures, thus resulting in an augmented risk of hydrometeorological extreme events.

A Diagnostic Study on a Southward Southwest Vortex Track Forecasted by CMA-GFS: The Role of Initial Field

Abstract It is known that the southwest vortex (SWV) is an important weather system that may induce severe weather. The southward deviation of an SWV track forecasted by the Global Assimilation and Prediction System of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA-GFS) is systematically diagnosed in this study. The southward shift of the SWV is directly attributed to the deviation of the steering flow caused by the weak forecast of the upper-level trough. According to the diagnosis of potential tendency, the underestimation of the initial vorticity advection forecasted by CMA-GFS dominates the weak development of the upper-level trough. The underestimation of the vorticity advection is eventually sourced to the weak geostrophic wind caused by the weak initial meridional and zonal gradients of the midlevel height in front of the trough. The assimilation process on the initial field of the CMA-GFS acts a negative effect on forecasting this SWV track. It weakens the π field at midmodel level, resulting in the weak midlevel height gradient in front of the trough. A verified numerical experiment initialized by a more reasonable field is carried out and the southward shift of the SWV is obviously modified. This study suggests that a reasonable analysis field is crucial for the accurate forecast of the SWV track. Significance Statement The important impact of initial field deviation in key regions on the forecast in the late period is highlighted. A systematic diagnosis process for identifying and addressing forecast issues on SWV track is proposed. This research provides a comprehensive approach for diagnosing the forecast deviation associated with SWV track.

Characteristics of Western Disturbance intensification and associated induced circulations over the Indian Region

Western Disturbances (WD) are significantly important weather systems causing precipitation in the Western Himalayan region during Indian Winter months. WDs have two major components-the eastward propagating upper-level trough originating in the mid-latitudes and the low-level Induced Circulation (IC) prevailing over the Northern Indo-Pak region. The present work aims to study the genesis and movement of these upper-level systems using composite analysis of 10 WD events during the Indian winter season that caused extreme precipitation over the western Himalayan region with emphasize on associative mechanisms leading to the IC. Further, we find that the Meridional Temperature Gradient (MTG) is responsible for the development of extra-tropical storms initiated by frontal genesis over the mid-latitude regions. The frontal genesis occurs due to the polar cold air outbreak (CAO) over higher latitudes, causing meandering of the jet stream and leading to the development of the upper-level perturbation that intensifies into a trough. Prior to the IC intensification, the upper-level moisture transport dominates, and during the intensification process, the combined effect of the upper-level trough and IC facilitates a drastic increase in moisture flux from the Arabian Sea at the lower levels. The moisture transport from the Arabian Sea is, therefore, a primary precursor to heavy precipitation in the Himalayan vicinity due to rapid vertical ascent and intense cloud formation because of orographic effects.

Deriving Gridded Hourly Rainfall on O‘ahu by Combining Gauge and Radar Rainfall

Abstract High temporal and spatial resolution precipitation datasets are essential for hydrological and flood modeling to assist water resource management and emergency responses, particularly for small watersheds, such as those in Hawai‘i in the United States. Unfortunately, fine temporal (subdaily) and spatial (<1 km) resolutions of rainfall datasets are not always readily available for applications. Radar provides indirect measurements of the rain rate over a large spatial extent with a reasonable temporal resolution, while rain gauges provide “ground truth.” There are potential advantages to combining the two, which have not been fully explored in tropical islands. In this study, we applied kriging with external drift (KED) to integrate hourly gauge and radar rainfall into a 250 m × 250 m gridded dataset for the tropical island of O‘ahu. The results were validated with leave-one-out cross validation for 18 severe storm events, including five different storm types (e.g., tropical cyclone, cold front, upper-level trough, kona low, and a mix of upper-level trough and kona low), and different rainfall structures (e.g., stratiform and convective). KED-merged rainfall estimates outperformed both the radar-only and gauge-only datasets by 1) reducing the error from radar rainfall and 2) improving the underestimation issues from gauge rainfall, especially during convective rainfall. We confirmed the KED method can be used to merge radar with gauge data to generate reliable rainfall estimates, particularly for storm events, on mountainous tropical islands. In addition, KED rainfall estimates were consistently more accurate in depicting spatial distribution and maximum rainfall value within various storm types and rainfall structures. Significance Statement The results of this study show the effectiveness of utilizing kriging with external drift (KED) in merging gauge and radar rainfall data to produce highly accurate, reliable rainfall estimates in mountainous tropical regions, such as O‘ahu. The validated KED dataset, with its high temporal and spatial resolutions, offers a valuable resource for various types of rainfall-related research, particularly for extreme weather response and rainfall intensity analyses in Hawai’i. Our findings improve the accuracy of rainfall estimates and contribute to a deeper understanding of the performance of various rainfall estimation methods under different storm types and rainfall structures in a mountainous tropical setting.

Exploring hail and lightning diagnostics over the Alpine-Adriatic region in a km-scale climate model

Abstract. The north and south of the Alps, as well as the eastern shores of the Adriatic Sea, are hot spots of severe convective storms, including hail and lightning associated with deep convection. With advancements in computing power, it has become feasible to simulate deep convection explicitly in climate models by decreasing the horizontal grid spacing to less than 4 km. These kilometer-scale models improve the representation of orography and reduce uncertainties associated with the use of deep convection parameterizations. In this study, we perform km-scale simulations for eight observed cases of severe convective storms (seven with and one without observed hail) over the Alpine-Adriatic region. The simulations are performed with the climate version of the regional model Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) that runs on graphics processing units (GPUs) at a horizontal grid spacing of 2.2 km. To analyze hail and lightning we have explored the hail growth model (HAILCAST) and lightning potential index (LPI) diagnostics integrated with the COSMO-crCLIM model. Comparison with available high-resolution observations reveals good performance of the model in simulating total precipitation, hail, and lightning. By performing a detailed analysis of three of the case studies, we identified the importance of significant meteorological factors for heavy thunderstorms that were reproduced by the model. Among these are the moist unstable boundary layer and dry mid-level air, the topographic barrier, as well as an approaching upper-level trough and cold front. Although COSMO HAILCAST tends to underestimate the hail size on the ground, the results indicate that both HAILCAST and LPI are promising candidates for future climate research.

A review of recent research progress on the effect of external influences on tropical cyclone intensity change

Over the past four years, significant research has advanced our understanding of how external factors influence tropical cyclone (TC) intensity changes. Research on air-sea interactions shows that increasing the moisture disequilibrium is a very effective way to increase surface heat fluxes and that ocean salinity-stratification plays a non-negligible part in TC intensity change. Vertical wind shear from the environment induces vortex misalignment, which controls the onset of significant TC intensification. Blocking due to upper-level outflow from TCs can reduce the magnitude of vertical wind shear, making for TC intensification. Enhanced TC-trough interactions are vital for rapid intensification in some TC cases because of strengthened warm air advection, but upper-level troughs are found to limit TC intensification in other cases due to dry midlevel air intrusions and increased shear. Aerosol effects on TCs can be divided into direct effects involving aerosol-radiation interactions and indirect effects involving aerosol-cloud interactions. The radiation absorption by the aerosols can change the temperature profile and affect outer rainbands through changes in stability and microphysics. Sea spray and sea salt aerosols are more important in the inner region, where the aerosols increase precipitation and latent heating, promoting more intensification. For landfalling TCs, the intensity decay is initially more sensitive to surface roughness than soil moisture, and the subsequent decay is mainly due to the rapid reduction in surface moisture fluxes. These new insights further sharpen our understanding of the mechanisms by which external factors influence TC intensity changes.

Comparison of Meteorological Drivers of Two Large Coastal Slope-Land Wildfire Events in Croatia and South-East Australia

Understanding the relationship between fire behavior and the driving weather conditions is critical for fire management and long-term fire risk assessment. In this study, we focus on two wildfire events: the Split wildfire in Croatia and the Forcett–Dunalley wildfire in Tasmania, Australia. The antecedent weather in both events included extremely dry conditions and higher-than-average air temperatures in the months prior to the events. The synoptic patterns in both events consisted of a large surface pressure gradient, which generated strong wind, driving the fire’s spread. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was utilized to simulate fire weather conditions during the development of the two events. In the innermost domain of WRF, resolution is 500 m with explicit moisture calculation only, and there are 66 vertical levels, with about 20 of them to resolve the boundary layer. The WRF simulations are well verified by station observations, including upper-level wind speeds. The convergence line pattern in the Tasmanian event, which was conducive to intense plume development, has been well simulated. Only a slight discrepancy was identified in the simulation of the coastal change in wind direction in the Croatian event. It is identified that in the Split case, bura wind was highly coupled with an upper-level trough, which induced subsidence of the upper-level dry and cold air to the surface, causing rapid drying of the fuel. During the Forcett–Dunalley fire, the atmosphere was unstable, which enabled deep pyrocumulonimbus development. In general, the development from ignition to the timing of the most extreme fire intensity in both events was largely determined by the evolution of the surface to upper-level meteorological drivers. While these extreme meteorological conditions would impact fire-fighting strategies such as aircraft operations, a model-based estimate of the high-risk areas is critical. Our findings would also benefit an estimate of the climatology of fire events with similar behavior and thus a long-term fire risk assessment.

Using Deep Learning to Identify Circulation Patterns of Intense Rainfall in the Beijing–Tianjing–Hebei Region

The properties and distributions of precipitation are often determined by specific synoptic patterns. Hence, the objective identification of corresponding impact patterns is an important field of research for improving rain forecasting. However, the identification of the weather patterns producing intense rainfall is much more challenging. Since they are violent and local, impact patterns tend to be meso- or smaller-scale systems and are often incompletely presented or only presented in limited regions. In this paper, a deep learning network with a feature cross-fusion module, FConvNeXt, was proposed to address this difficulty and showed great potential. Four major patterns corresponding to intense rainfall in the Beijing–Tianjing–Hebei Region were studied. Statistical testing showed that FConvNeXt performed better than ConvNeXt and ResNet and that the model could identify the weak synoptic forcing type, the subtropical high-pressure type, and the low-vortex pattern with high accuracy. Furthermore, a strictly independent 2021 dataset was tested, and FConvNeXt maintained an equal if not even slightly better performance in spite of a decrease in the subtropical high-pressure type. Meanwhile, the study showed that the accuracy in identifying the upper-level trough type is the lowest for the three deep learning methods, which may be because the northeast vortex was intercepted in the limited region, making it difficult to distinguish from the shallow upper-level trough type. This study is useful for improving the fine objective of forecasting intense rainfall.

Analysis of the Triggering and Maintenance Mechanisms of a Record-Breaking Warm-Sector Extreme-Rainfall Process in Front of an Upper-Level Trough in Tianjin, China

A short-time rainstorm exceeding the extreme historical rainfall occurred in the Jinnan District of Tianjin, China, on 3 July 2022. Due to the concentrated time period of precipitation, it caused serious water accumulation in the Jinnan District. The purpose of this paper is to study the weather mechanism of this extreme rainstorm in the Jinan District of Tianjin. By analyzing the fine observation facts, we can obtain the mesoscale weather characteristics and environmental conditions of the process. The results provide a reference for similar weather forecasting and warning in the future. Based on the 1 min interval precipitation observation data, the ERA5 reanalysis data, the CINRAD-SA radar reflectivity data of Tanggu, the cloud-top brightness temperature data of the Fengyun-4A satellite, and the Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System data, we comprehensively analyzed a record-breaking extreme rainfall process in Tianjin on 3 July 2022. The results show that the extreme rainfall process presents prominent mesoscale weather characteristics, with high precipitation intensity in a short-term period. This process is influenced by multi-scale weather systems, including the 500 hPa upper-level trough and the long-distance water vapor transport by Typhoon Chaba. The rainstorm event is caused by the combined actions of cold pool outflow produced by the upstream precipitation, the easterly disturbance in the boundary layer, the mesoscale temperature front, and the ground convergence line. Specifically, the ground convergence line is formed by the northerly wind of the cold pool outflow and the warm and moist southerly airflow from the ocean, and the temperature front is caused by the horizontal thermal difference of the underlying surface. Both the ground convergence line and temperature front contribute considerably to the triggering of mesoscale convection. The mesoscale secondary circulation is formed in the meridional direction by the meso-γ-scale convergence and its interaction with strong velocity in front of the trough, contributing to the development and maintenance of vertical motion in the Jinnan region of Tianjin and thereby leading to the occurrence and development of this extreme heavy rainfall process.

Classification of daily heavy precipitation patterns and associated synoptic types in the Campania Region (southern Italy)

Using a 20-year (2002−2021) dataset of daily precipitation collected by 107 rain gauges in the period from October to May, this study introduces a classification of the main heavy precipitation spatial patterns for the Campania Region (southern Italy). To pursue this aim, we apply a cluster analysis on the most relevant principal modes extracted from a principal component analysis of the between-day correlation matrix. The characteristics of the identified patterns, as well as their interannual and monthly distribution, are presented and discussed. Moreover, using global and regional reanalysis products, we have determined the large-scale and mesoscale atmospheric circulation types associated with heavy precipitation patterns.The heavy precipitation episodes are generally triggered by an upper level trough approaching the southern Italy from west and promoting a very moist southwesterly flow. They have been clustered into six different patterns. The first four exhibit a rainfall amount distribution strongly connected with the orography of the investigated region. In such scenarios, the orographic lifting, the low-level wind convergence induced by the orography and the transport of moisture from local sources (the western and the southern Mediterranean) and from distant regions (the Atlantic and the Africa tropical areas) can be regarded as the primary forcing of heavy rainfall. In the other two patterns, the highest precipitation is generally observed in the coastal areas (Gulfs of Naples and Salerno) and in the northwestern side of the region (Caserta district), respectively. In such circumstances, the abundant precipitation is closely linked to convective activity over the Tyrrhenian Sea, which is sustained by a low-level convergence and, in the sixth pattern, by a moisture plume coming from the tropics.The results of this study provide new insights about the links between torrential precipitation spatial distribution and atmospheric circulation schemes in the southern Italy and promise to add a useful contribution for civil protection activities related to the management of environmental risks.

Structural and Environmental Characteristics of Western Baiu Frontal Depressions

Abstract Baiu frontal depressions (BFDs) are the major cyclones that form and develop along baiu fronts. The structure and environment of BFDs are examined using the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis dataset. BFDs detected automatically were categorized into four groups based on the region where the BFDs peaked: the East China Sea (ES), off the south coast of the Japanese islands (SC), the Yellow Sea (YS), and the Sea of Japan (SJ). A BFD-centered composite analysis demonstrates that, for YS-BFDs and SJ-BFDs, compared to ES-BFDs and SC-BFDs, the strength of upper-level troughs is greater, and the upper-level troughs are closer, suggesting that the effect of upper-level troughs on BFD development is greater. BFDs for all categories are located in the region of cyclonic horizontal shear and have a horizontal trough running from southwest to northeast, favoring barotropic energy conversion. The BFD-centered composite analysis of the energy conversion terms demonstrates that the barotropic energy conversion of mean kinetic energy due to the environmental cyclonic horizontal shear to eddy kinetic energy contributes to BFD development, and the conversion of eddy available potential energy, which is generated mainly by the diabatic heating, is the major contributor to eddy kinetic energy.

Diagnostic Study of a Severe Dust Storm over North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula

This work aimed to study the synoptic evolution and dynamics of the dust activity associated with the desert cyclone occurring over North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula on 4–8 April 2007 based on ECMWF analysis (ERA5) data. This desert cyclone formed over North Africa (Algeria) in the lee of the Atlas Mountains in response to a powerful upper-level trough transporting cold air into northern Africa coming from high latitudes. The development of the cyclone was initiated when the contrast in temperature between the Mediterranean Sea and northern Africa (the desert) was strong, which increased the meridional temperature gradient. The isobaric vorticity analysis illustrated that the strong advection of positive vorticity and warm air ahead of the cyclone triggered cyclogenesis and low-level jet (LLJ) formation. The strong LLJ maintained the development of the cyclone inside the area of baroclinicity at a low-level. The horizontal divergence of 700 hPa level covered the region downstream of the cyclone trough and is coupled with the lower-level convergence. The study of frontogentical function concluded that the first stage of cyclogenesis is associated with frontogenesis working at the initial front of the cyclone. The vertical motions are then dominated by the direct transverse circulation with the ascent of the warmer and descent of the colder air. The mass transport within the circulation causes pressure falls along the surface front connected with convergence leading to the production of vorticity. The dust emissions linked to the cyclone during its duration and along its path were also investigated.

A numerical study on the effects of a midlatitude upper-level trough on the track and intensity of Typhoon Bavi (2020)

The complex interactions between a tropical cyclone (TC) and the midlatitude upper-level trough or cutoff low (sometimes called a cold-core vortex) can lead to an unusual track, such as sudden turning motion, and intensity change of the tropical cyclone, often leading to large forecast errors. In this study, the track and intensity changes of Typhoon Bavi (2020) under the influence of the upper-level trough and the detached cutoff low from its base are investigated based on numerical experiments using the advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Bavi formed over the western North Pacific between Taiwan and Okinawa Islands on 23 August 2020. Under the influence of an upper-level trough to the north, Bavi initially moved northeastward. As the trough propagated eastward, a cutoff low was detached from the base of the trough on the next day. The downward penetration of the upper-level cutoff low led to a sudden northwestward turning motion of Bavi when it intensified to a severe typhoon and then moved almost due north and made landfall over North Korea. These changes and processes are well captured in a control numerical experiment. In a sensitivity experiment with the mid-latitude upper-level trough removed in the initial conditions, the tropical cyclone moved primarily north-northeastward after 1-day simulation without the sudden northwestward turning. This track change led to an earlier landfall of the storm over South Korea and, thus, an earlier weakening than in the control experiment, which is termed as the indirect effect on the storm intensity due to the change in the tropical cyclone track. The results also show that eddy angular momentum flux convergence associated with the upper-level trough contributed little to the simulated tropical cyclone intensification, while the environmental vertical wind shear is key to the intensity change of Bavi.

Characteristics of the upper-level outflow and its impact on the rapid intensification of Typhoon Roke (2011)

In this study, we investigate the structural characteristics of the upper-level outflow and its impact on the rapid intensification (RI) of Typhoon Roke (2011), which experienced an evident outflow transformation from equatorward to poleward during its RI period. The simulations by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model suggest that the upper-level outflow extends from 100 hPa to 150 hPa, with an upper-level warm core at around 150 hPa. The upper-level outflow is enhanced ahead of the typhoon intensification, which is closely related to the outflow-environment interaction. Further analyses indicate that at the early stage of Roke (2011) before the RI, the strong equatorward outflow and the updraft south of the typhoon center are enhanced, favoring the onset of RI. During the RI period, the strong divergent flow near the entrance of the southwesterly jet in front of the upper-level trough, induces the poleward outflow. The eddy flux convergence of angular momentum inward propagated to the typhoon center from a 1000-km radius further enhances the poleward outflow and leads to the development of the vertical motion north of the typhoon center. Then Roke (2011) intensifies rapidly. Simultaneously, the shallow weak positive potential vorticity (PV) anomaly south of the southwesterly jet increases the inner-core PV, favoring the sustained intensification of Roke (2011). After Roke (2011) reaches its peak intensity, its intensity decreases due to the increase of vertical wind shear and the approaching of the southwesterly jet. It is indicated that the interaction between the upper-level outflow and the upper-tropospheric trough has significant influence on the RI of TC.

Analysis on the Heavy Rain Weather Process in Most Areas of China from July 26 to 30, 2022

To analyze a new heavy rain case over China during the year 2022, by using the data from NCC-CMA and NCEP, a heavy rain weather process in most areas of China from July 26 to 30, 2022 was analyzed. Synoptic methods were used in this research and results show that under the influence of low vortex and wind shear, the abundant water vapor supply brought by the southeast airflow in the lower level and the lifting of the Taihang Mountain, heavy rain weather occurred in the northern part of Henan, China. In the west of Liaoning and Jilin, the rainfall process had the characteristics of frontal rainfall and the stable precipitation resulted in heavy rain weather. To sum up, the rainfall process was mainly affected by the upper-level trough, low-level wind shear and low-level jet.

A Hierarchical Dissection of Multiscale Forcing on the Springtime Mesoscale Convective Systems in the United States

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) play a key role in regulating variability in the U.S. water and energy cycle. Here a hierarchical dissection of the multiscale forcing of springtime MCSs is carried out through a two-step classification process. Hierarchical clustering is first applied to spatiotemporally evolving upper-tropospheric height fields to reveal large-scale forcing patterns of MCSs. Five distinct forcing patterns (clusters) are identified with three being “remotely forced” and two associated with “local growth.” The upper-level troughs associated with these forcing patterns create broad envelopes downstream within which large-scale ascent and MCS genesis tend to occur. Further classification of MCSs based on MCS track locations reveals that local dynamic and thermodynamic forcing determines the precise locations of MCS genesis in the envelope created by large-scale forcing. Specifically, MCSs often occur near surface fronts in warm sectors of surface low pressure systems and are accompanied by low-level kinematic and moisture convergence driven by low-level jets (LLJs). Nearly 50% of spring MCSs are associated with potential instability realized through frontal lifting, and the highest probability of MCS genesis is seen with an environmental CAPE of ∼1400 J kg−1 and CIN of ∼150 J kg−1. The positive trend of the U.S. MCS genesis frequency observed in recent decades is found to be driven by the cluster of MCSs forced at large scale by the Pacific storm track. Regression analysis further suggests that the growing phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) modulates the associated MCS large-scale forcing and is ultimately responsible for the positive MCS trend. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to provide a systematic classification of multiscale forcing factors triggering mesoscale convective system development over the United States. These storms are very active in spring and often lead to intense rainfall and other weather hazards such as lightning, hail, and tornadoes. They play a key role in the U.S. hydrological cycle and have been occurring more frequently over the past several decades. Our study reveals the detailed characteristics of atmospheric forcing leading to these storms. Such information lays theoretical grounds for designing prediction schemes of warm season severe weather and provides guidance for model development to improve climate models’ simulation and long-term projection of these storms.