Uplift Model Research Articles

Lake and mire isolation data set for the estimation of post-glacial land uplift in Fennoscandia

Abstract. Postglacial land uplift is a complex process related to the continental ice retreat that took place about 10 000 years ago and thus started the viscoelastic response of the Earth's crust to rebound back to its equilibrium state. To empirically model the land uplift process based on past behaviour of shoreline displacement, data points of known spatial location, elevation and dating are needed. Such data can be obtained by studying the isolation of lakes and mires from the sea. Archaeological data on human settlements (i.e. human remains, fireplaces etc.) are also very useful as the settlements were indeed situated on dry land and were often located close to the coast. This information can be used to validate and update the postglacial land uplift model. In this paper, a collection of data underlying empirical land uplift modelling in Fennoscandia is presented. The data set is available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.905352 (Pohjola et al., 2019).

The effectiveness of employee retention through an uplift modeling approach

PurposeThe main goal of employee retention is to prevent competent employees from leaving the company. When analysing the main reasons why employees leave and determining their turnover probability, the question arises: Which retention strategies have an actual effect on turnover and for which profile of employees do these strategies work?Design/methodology/approachTo determine the effectiveness of different retention strategies, an overview is given of retention strategies that can be found in the literature. Next, the paper presents a procedure to build an uplift model for testing the effectiveness of the different strategies on HR data. The uplift model is based on random forest estimation and applies personal treatment learning estimation.FindingsThrough a data-driven approach, the actual effect of retention strategies on employee turnover is investigated. The retention strategies compensation and recognition are found to have a positive average treatment effect on the entire population, while training and flexibility do not. However, with personalised treatment learning, the treatment effect on the individual level can be estimated. This results in an ability to profile employees with the highest estimated treatment effect.Practical implicationsThe results yield useful information for human resources practitioners. The personalised treatment analysis results in detailed retention information for these practitioners, which allows them to target the right employees with the right strategies.Originality/valueEven though the uplift modelling approach is becoming increasingly popular within marketing, this approach has not been taken within human resources analytics. This research opens the door for further research and for practical implementation.

String landscape and fermion masses

Besides the string scale, string theory has no parameter except some quantized flux values; and the string theory Landscape is generated by scanning over discrete values of all the flux parameters present. We propose that a typical (normalized) probability distribution $P({\cal Q})$ of a physical quantity $\cal Q$ (with nonnegative dimension) tends to peak (diverge) at ${\cal Q}=0$ as a signature of string theory. In the Racetrack K\"ahler uplift model, where $P(\Lambda)$ of the cosmological constant $\Lambda$ peaks sharply at $\Lambda=0$, the electroweak scale (not the electroweak model) naturally emerges when the median $\Lambda$ is matched to the observed value. We check the robustness of this scenario. In a bottom-up approach, we find that the observed quark and charged lepton masses are consistent with the same probabilistic philosophy, with distribution $P(m)$ that diverges at $m=0$, with the same (or almost the same) degree of divergence. This suggests that the Standard Model has an underlying string theory description, and yields relations among the fermion masses, albeit in a probabilistic approach (very different from the usual sense). Along this line of reasoning, the normal hierarchy of neutrino masses is clearly preferred over the inverted hierarchy, and the sum of the neutrino masses is predicted to be $\sum m_{\nu} \simeq 0.0592$ eV, with an upper bound $\sum m_{\nu} <0.066$ eV. This illustrates a novel way string theory can be applied to particle physics phenomenology.

(U\u2013Th)/He thermochronometric mapping across the northeast Japan Arc: towards understanding mountain building in an island-arc setting

Topographic relief in arc-trench systems is thought to be formed by plate subduction; however, few quantitative investigations have so far been reported, with respect to the related mountain building process. This study applies apatite and zircon (U–Th)/He thermochronometry (AHe, ZHe, respectively) to Cretaceous granite rocks in the north part of the northeast (NE) Japan Arc to reveal its cooling/denudation history. Weighted mean AHe ages ranging from 88.6 to 0.9 Ma and ZHe ages from 83.9 to 7.4 Ma were determined for 10 rock samples. Using the AHe data, denudation rates were obtained for each sample. On the fore-arc side, denudation rates of < 0.05 mm/year were calculated, indicating a slow denudation process since the Paleogene. However, in the Ou Backbone Range and on the back-arc side, denudation rates at > 0.1–1.0 mm/year were computed, probably reflecting a recent uplift event since ~ 3–2 Ma. These data indicate a clear contrast in thermal and denudation histories between the tectonic units in this study area, similar to that previously reported from the southern part of NE Japan Arc. A comparison of the thermal/denudation histories between the N- and S- traverses, revealed the arc-parallel trend, the uplift model of the volcanic arc, and some minor variations of thermal/denudation histories in each tectonic unit. This study offers some further insights into the understanding of tectonic processes in an island-arc setting.

Topography, structural and exhumation history of the Admiralty Mountains region, northern Victoria Land, Antarctica

The Admiralty Mountains region forms the northern termination of the northern Victoria Land, Antarctica. Few quantitative data are available to reconstruct the Cenozoic morpho-tectonic evolution of this sector of the Antarctic plate, where the Admiralty Mountains region forms the northern termination of the western shoulder of the Mesozoic–Cenozoic West Antarctica Rift System. In this study we combine new low-temperature thermochronological data (apatite fission-track and (U-Th-Sm)/He analyses) with structural and topography analysis. The regional pattern of the fission-track ages shows a general tendency to older ages (80–60 ​Ma) associated with shortened mean track-lengths in the interior, and younger fission-track ages clustering at 38–26 ​Ma with long mean track-lengths in the coastal region. Differently from other regions of Victoria Land, the younger ages are found as far as 50–70 ​km inland. Single grain apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He ages cluster at 50–30 ​Ma with younger ages in the coastal domain. Topography analysis reveals that the Admiralty Mountains has high local relief, with an area close to the coast, 180 ​km long and 70 ​km large, having the highest local relief of >2500 ​m. This coincides with the location of the youngest fission-track ages. The shape of the area with highest local relief matches the shape of a recently detected low velocity zone beneath the northern TAM, indicating that high topography of the Admiralty Mountains region is likely sustained by a mantle thermal anomaly. We used the obtained constraints on the amount of removed crustal section to reconstruct back-eroded profiles and calculate the erosional load in order to test flexural uplift models. We found that our back-eroded profiles are better reproduced by a constant elastic thickness of intermediate values (Te ​= ​20–30 ​km). This suggests that, beneath the Admiralty Mountains, the elastic properties of the lithosphere are different with respect to other TAM sectors, likely due to a stationary Cenozoic upper mantle thermal anomaly in the region.

Postaccumulation sandstone porosity evolution by mechanical compaction and the effect on gas saturation: Case study of the Lower Shihezi Formation in the Bayan'aobao area, Ordos Basin, China

Abstract Porosity evolution and reservoir quality are strongly affected by mechanical compaction. However, the compaction-induced porosity reduction process in sandstone reservoirs during the postaccumulation period and its effect on gas saturation remain poorly understood. By studying the sandstones in the Bayan'aobao area, we were able to quantify the porosity evolution and gas saturation variations caused by mechanical compaction during the postaccumulation period through fluid inclusion analysis and mathematical modeling. Moreover, we verified our findings by compaction experiments and geological statistics. Fluid inclusion microthermometry was employed to determine the hydrocarbon accumulation periods, and the highest homogenization temperature of the two-phase aqueous fluid inclusions coexisting with natural gas fluid inclusions, i.e., ~115 °C (with a corresponding geological age of ~140 Ma), was regarded as the beginning of the postaccumulation stages. With these data, we constructed an inversion evolution model (based on the geologic statistical model of sandstone mechanical compaction) for the postaccumulation period and determined the gas saturation changes (based on compaction porosity evolution). The modeling results indicate that the sandstone porosity decreased greatly during postaccumulation subsidence and increased slightly during late-stage uplift, while the gas saturation increased with both the porosity decrease during the postaccumulation subsidence and the porosity increases during the later uplift. The modeling results of subsidence are concordant with the compaction experiments, which also show that the larger the initial porosity, the greater the porosity reduction. The uplift modeling results demonstrate that an erosion-induced decrease in burial depth allowed the sandstone porosity to increase, which is supported by some scholars’ findings (e.g., Neuzil and Pollock, 1983; Jiang et al., 2004; Zhang, 2013) and by the positive correlation between sandstone porosities and restored geologic unit thicknesses in the study area. However, the inversion modeling indicates that the reason for the porosity rebound in litharenites is that the increase in elastic porosity slightly exceeds the decrease in viscoplastic porosity, which would have been different if the uplift-induced erosion rate had been distinctly lower. Gas production test data and restored geologic unit thicknesses indicate that uplift and erosion may be able to enrich sandstone gas reservoirs to a certain extent, consistent with the calculated gas saturation variation results, but a full understanding of gas saturation evolution awaits further studies. The inversion model can provide a powerful tool for quantitative analysis of the sandstone compaction process during the postaccumulation period, which could be used for reference in other similar regions.

A survey and benchmarking study of multitreatment uplift modeling

Uplift modeling is an instrument used to estimate the change in outcome due to a treatment at the individual entity level. Uplift models assist decision-makers in optimally allocating scarce resources. This allows the selection of the subset of entities for which the effect of a treatment will be largest and, as such, the maximization of the overall returns. The literature on uplift modeling mostly focuses on queries concerning the effect of a single treatment and rarely considers situations where more than one treatment alternative is utilized. This article surveys the current literature on multitreatment uplift modeling and proposes two novel techniques: the naive uplift approach and the multitreatment modified outcome approach. Moreover, a benchmarking experiment is performed to contrast the performances of different multitreatment uplift modeling techniques across eight data sets from various domains. We verify and, if needed, correct the imbalance among the pretreatment characteristics of the treatment groups by means of optimal propensity score matching, which ensures a correct interpretation of the estimated uplift. Conventional and recently proposed evaluation metrics are adapted to the multitreatment scenario to assess performance. None of the evaluated techniques consistently outperforms other techniques. Hence, it is concluded that performance largely depends on the context and problem characteristics. The newly proposed techniques are found to offer similar performances compared to state-of-the-art approaches.

Why you should stop predicting customer churn and start using uplift models

Uplift modeling has received increasing interest in both the business analytics research community and the industry as an improved paradigm for predictive analytics for data-driven operational decision-making. The literature, however, does not provide conclusive empirical evidence that uplift modeling outperforms predictive modeling. Case studies that directly compare both approaches are lacking, and the performance of predictive models and uplift models as reported in various experimental studies cannot be compared indirectly since different evaluation measures are used to assess their performance.Therefore, in this paper, we introduce a novel evaluation metric called the maximum profit uplift (MPU) measure that allows assessing the performance in terms of the maximum potential profit that can be achieved by adopting an uplift model. This measure, developed for evaluating customer churn uplift models, extends the maximum profit measure for evaluating customer churn prediction models. While introducing the MPU measure, we describe the generally applicable liftup curve and liftup measure for evaluating uplift models as counterparts of the lift curve and lift measure that are broadly used to evaluate predictive models. These measures are subsequently applied to assess and compare the performance of customer churn prediction and uplift models in a case study that applies uplift modeling to customer retention in the financial industry. We observe that uplift models outperform predictive models and lead to improved profitability of retention campaigns.

Uplift of Trail Ridge, Florida, by Karst Dissolution, Glacial Isostatic Adjustment, and Dynamic Topography

AbstractThe present elevation of Trail Ridge, a purported Pleistocene paleoshoreline (2.21 ± 0.38 Ma) up to ~70 m high, is attributed to isostatic uplift from karst‐induced mass loss of the underlying Florida Platform. However, glacial isostatic adjustment, dynamic topography (DT), and elastic flexure also contribute to the observed topography. We investigated the combined contribution of these geophysical processes to the elevation of Trail Ridge by adapting a numerical model of karst‐induced Airy isostatic uplift that is driven by sea level change since ~3 Ma with a gravitationally self‐consistent glacial isostatic adjustment model. We treat DT as a free parameter and explore a spectrum of scenarios, from dynamic subsidence (−25 m/Myr) to dynamic uplift (+25 m/Myr), with values consistent with mantle convection simulations for the region. We demonstrate a trade‐off between the age of Trail Ridge, karstification efficiency, and DT rate that necessitates robust estimates of two of these variables when solving for the third. For example, adopting spring‐efflux‐derived estimates of subsurface carbonate dissolution (1 m/38,000 yr) and a 10 m/Myr dynamic topographic uplift for the northern Florida Platform predicts an age of ~2.1 Ma for a model 70 m elevation marker, consistent with the bounds of the electron spin resonance optical dating geochronology. In contrast, by assuming a more rapid carbonate dissolution efficiency (1 m/11,000 yr) and dynamic subsidence of −15 m/Myr predicts a similar age. A refined karst‐induced isostatic uplift model age for Trail Ridge requires both improved rates of regional karst dissolution, dynamic topographic change, and elastic flexure.

Response transformation and profit decomposition for revenue uplift modeling

Uplift models support decision-making in marketing campaign planning. Estimating the causal effect of a marketing treatment, an uplift model facilitates targeting marketing actions to responsive customers and efficient allocation of marketing budget. Research into uplift models focuses on conversion models to maximize incremental sales. The paper introduces uplift models for maximizing incremental revenues. If customers differ in their spending behavior, revenue maximization is a more plausible business objective compared to maximizing conversions. The proposed methodology entails a transformation of the prediction target, customer-level revenues, that facilitates implementing a causal uplift model using standard machine learning algorithms. The distribution of campaign revenues is typically zero-inflated because of many non-buyers. Remedies to this modeling challenge are incorporated in the proposed revenue uplift strategies in the form of two-stage models. Empirical experiments using real-world e-commerce data confirm the merits of the proposed revenue uplift strategy over relevant alternatives, including uplift models for conversion and recently developed causal machine learning algorithms. To quantify the degree to which improved targeting decisions raise return on marketing, the paper develops a decomposition of campaign profit. Applying the decomposition to a digital coupon targeting campaign, the paper provides evidence that revenue uplift modeling, as well as causal machine learning, can improve campaign profit substantially.

Uplift and Settlement Prediction Model of Marine Clay Soil e Integrated with Polyurethane Foam

Abstract Polyurethane (PU) foam is a lightweight material that can be used efficiently as a ground improvement method in solving excessive and differential settlement of soil foundation mainly for infrastructures such as road, highway and parking spaces. The ground improvement method is done by excavation and removal of soft soil at shallow depth and replacement with lightweight PU foam slab. This study is done to simulate the model of marine clay soil integrated with polyurethane foam using finite element method (FEM) PLAXIS 2D for prediction of settlement behavior and uplift effect due to polyurethane foam mitigation method. Model of soft clay foundation stabilized with PU foam slab with variation in thickness and overburden loads were analyzed. Results from FEM exhibited the same trend as the results of the analytical method whereby PU foam has successfully reduced the amount of settlement significantly. With the increase in PU foam thickness, the settlement is reduced, nonetheless the uplift pressure starts to increase beyond the line of effective thickness. PU foam design chart has been produced for practical application in order to adopt the effective thickness of PU foam within tolerable settlement value and uplift pressure with respect to different overburden loads for ground improvement works.

Burial and exhumation of the Hoh Xil Basin, northern Tibetan Plateau: Constraints from detrital (U‐Th)/He ages

AbstractThe uplift and associated exhumation of the Tibetan Plateau has been widely considered a key control of Cenozoic global cooling. The south‐central parts of this plateau experienced rapid exhumation during the Cretaceous–Palaeocene periods. When and how the northern part was exhumed, however, remains controversial. The Hoh Xil Basin (HXB) is the largest late Cretaceous–Cenozoic sedimentary basin in the northern part, and it preserves the archives of the exhumation history. We present detrital apatite and zircon (U‐Th)/He data from late Cretaceous–Cenozoic sedimentary rocks of the western and eastern HXB. These data, combined with regional geological constraints and interpreted with inverse and forward model of sediment deposition and burial reheating, suggest that the occurrence of ca. 4–2.7 km and ca. 4–2.3 km of vertical exhumation initiated at ca. 30–25 Ma and 40–35 Ma in the eastern and western HXB respectively. The initial differential exhumation of the eastern HXB and the western HXB might be controlled by the oblique subduction of the Qaidam block beneath the HXB. The initial exhumation timing in the northern Tibetan Plateau is younger than that in the south‐central parts. This reveals an episodic exhumation of the Tibetan Plateau compared to models of synchronous Miocene exhumation of the entire plateau and the early Eocene exhumation of the northern Tibetan Plateau shortly after the India–Asia collision. One possible mechanism to account for outward growth is crustal shortening. A simple model of uplift and exhumation would predict a maximum of 0.8 km of surface uplift after upper crustal shortening during 30–27 Ma, which is insufficient to explain the high elevations currently observed. One way to increase elevation without changing exhumation rates and to decouple uplift from upper crustal shortening is through the combined effects of continental subduction, mantle lithosphere removal and magmatic inflation.

Landscape evolution of the Blue Mountains revealed by longitudinal river profiles and Cenozoic basalts and gravels

For the past 200 years, there have been numerous investigations and much speculation concerning the formation of the dramatic valleys of the Blue Mountains of NSW. In this paper, further evidence for the uplift and erosional history of the Blue Mountains is obtained from longitudinal river profiles, detailed mapping of the Rickabys Creek Gravel on the Lapstone Structural Complex and consideration of the topographical position of Miocene basalts. Knickpoints on the main rivers flowing east from the Great Dividing Range are identified and interpreted to be due to uplift events linked to the northward movement of the Australian continent over mantle inhomogeneities. At the Lapstone Structural Complex on the eastern range front, the occurrence of the Rickabys Creek Gravel and the nature of the over-steepened reaches on the rivers and streams crossing the Complex, suggest a more recent ongoing phase of uplift and antecedent river erosion. The Miocene basalts provide evidence of this landscape 20–15 Ma. Their locations with respect to the current rivers and ridges are interpreted to show additional evidence for recent uplift that has resulted in the formation of the Lapstone Structural Complex. It is suggested that this uplift commenced 10–5 Ma when the contemporary compressive stress field was established.KEY POINTSLongitudinal profiles for major rivers in the Blue Mountains are consistent with a model of initial Cretaceous uplift followed by further Cenozoic uplift associated with dynamic topography.Mapping of Rickabys Creek Gravel within the Lapstone Structural Complex suggests the presence of antecedent rivers.Within the Lapstone Structural Complex, stream profiles, gravels and nearby outcrops of Miocene basalts are interpreted to indicate a third phase of uplift, possibly since 10 Ma.

Coupled hydraulic and mechanical model of surface uplift due to mine water rebound: implications for mine water heating and cooling schemes

In order to establish sustainable heat loading (heat removal and storage) in abandoned flooded mine workings it is important to understand the geomechanical impact of the cyclical heat loading caused by fluid injection and extraction. This is particularly important where significantly more thermal loading is planned than naturally occurs. A simple calculation shows that the sustainable geothermal heat flux from abandoned coal mines can provide less than a tenth of Scotland's annual domestic heating demand. Any heat removal greater than the natural heat flux will lead to heat mining unless heat storage options are also considered. Thematic collection: This article is part of the SJG Collection on Early-Career Research available at: https://www.lyellcollection.org/cc/SJG-early-career-research

Exploring uplift modelling in direct marketing

Purpose: This research examines the importance of an uplift marketing model compared to traditional response models, used in direct marketing. Research Methodology: A multi-method research approach was used which included a survey using an electronic questionnaire and a semi-structured interview. Results: The research findings reveal that the value of employing uplift models in direct marketing. is that it factors change in behaviour from the action, which traditional response models do not. Limitation: The study was conducted in a single institution and focused only on scustomers with banking needs. Contribution: By employing an uplift model in direct marketing it is possible to increase marketing return-on-investment and positively impact brand loyalty and brand perception. Thus, marketers need to be cognizant of these findings and strategize accordingly. Keywords: Direct marketing, Customer management, Marketing model, Marketing communication

NKG2016LU: a new land uplift model for Fennoscandia and the Baltic Region

We present the official land uplift model NKG2016LU of the Nordic Commission of Geodesy (NKG) for northern Europe. The model was released in 2016 and covers an area from 49° to 75° latitude and 0° to 50° longitude. It shows a maximum absolute uplift of 10.3 mm/a near the city of Umeå in northern Sweden and a zero-line that follows the shores of Germany and Poland. The model replaces the NKG2005LU model from 2005. Since then, we have collected more data in the core areas of NKG2005LU, specifically in Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland, and included observations from the Baltic countries as well. Additionally, we have derived an underlying geophysical glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model within NKG as an integrated part of the NKG2016LU project. A major challenge is to estimate a realistic uncertainty grid for the model. We show how the errors in the observations and the underlying GIA model propagate through the calculations to the final uplift model. We find a standard error better than 0.25 mm/a for most of the area covered by precise levelling or uplift rates from Continuously Operating Reference Stations and up to 0.7 mm/a outside this area. As a check, we show that two different methods give approximately the same uncertainty estimates. We also estimate changes in the geoid and derive an alternative uplift model referring to this rising geoid. Using this latter model, the maximum uplift in Umeå reduces from 10.3 to 9.6 mm/a and with a similar reduction ratio elsewhere. When we compare this new NKG2016LU with the former NKG2005LU, we find the largest differences where the GIA model has the strongest influence, i.e. outside the area of geodetic observation. Here, the new model gives from − 3 to 4 mm/a larger values. Within the observation area, similar differences reach − 1.5 mm/a at the northernmost part of Norway and − 1.0 mm/a at the north-western coast of Denmark, but generally within the range of − 0.5 to 0.5 mm/a.

Study on the evolution of paleo-uplift in southeast Sichuan

The deepening understanding of the geological structure of large paleo-uplift in the basin is often accompanied by important oil and gas exploration discoveries. The abundant oil and gas exploration results in the early stage show that the luzhou paleo-uplift is one of the important petroleum accumulation structural units in the sichuan basin. At the same time, the formation and evolution of luzhou ancient uplift were also affected by a variety of geological factors. It is a joint response of the internal deformation of the Yangtze plate and the orogenic movement of the peripheral block in the indosinian period, and a natural place to study the basin-mountain coupling relationship and the basin superposition transformation process. By means of a large number of seismic reflection profile and drilling data, combined with field exploration and other data, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of luzhou ancient uplift are described in detail. Combined with the tectonic background of the study area, the formation of luzhou ancient uplift was further analyzed, and the genetic mechanism model of luzhou ancient uplift was proposed. Through analysis, it is concluded that the indosinian luzhou ancient uplift developed in the southeast of sichuan basin, and its long axial strike is from northeast to southwest, which is a typical compressive and superimposed ancient uplift.

Reducing inferior member community participation using uplift modeling: Evidence from a field experiment

In their ongoing search for competitive advantage, firms increasingly leverage online innovation communities (ICs). The viability of these ICs may be jeopardized by big data environments and inferior member participation. Therefore, community managers must address poor member participation, together with the data-rich environment. This study examines the viability of a proactive motivational email campaign to reduce inferior member participation using uplift modeling; it also explores optimal treatment characteristics, including message scope (untargeted versus targeted), message content (hedonic, cognitive, and social message), and member profile (self-interest–oriented and positive emotional writing style). The findings indicate that marketing decision makers should use proactive, targeted emails with cognitive motivational elements to mitigate inferior levels of member participation. These findings have important implications for innovation scholars and community managers.

Magnetic polarity stratigraphy, provenance, and paleoclimate analysis of Cenozoic strata in the Qaidam Basin, NE Tibetan Plateau

AbstractThe growth and deformation history of the Qilian-Nan Shan thrust belt bounding the NE Qaidam Basin figures importantly in testing models of Tibetan Plateau uplift during the India-Asia collision. However, debate exists about the onset of uplift and exhumation of the Qilian-Nan Shan, with timing estimates ranging from early Paleocene to late Miocene. Here we report integrated analyses of magnetostratigraphy, anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility, sediment provenance, and paleoclimate (using environmental magnetic parameters) for Cenozoic fluvio-lacustrine strata from the Dahonggou section south of the Qilian-Nan Shan. The results are interpreted to demonstrate an early Miocene (ca. 20 Ma) onset of sediment accumulation in this location, with clastic sediment derived initially from the southern Qimen Tagh highland. The sediment source then switched to the northern part of the Qilian Shan region after ca. 18.5 Ma, consistent with initial uplift and exhumation of the Qilian Shan. Thereafter, two additional provenance shifts reveal progressive southward propagation of deformation in the Qilian-Nan Shan. As a result of this southward growth of Qilian-Nan Shan topography, precipitation increased after ca. 11 Ma at the study site due to orographic interception of moisture from the south. This work improves our understanding of the depositional age, sediment provenance, and paleoclimate history of the Qaidam Basin and reveals a prolonged history of Qilian-Nan Shan deformation and uplift, which may have accelerated during the late Miocene.

Evaluation of leaf wax δD and soil brGDGTs as tools for paleoaltimetry on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau

The orogenic history of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and surrounding mountain ranges continues to be a major source of disagreement among geologists, particularly concerning the uplift models for the Cenozoic evolution of the TP and estimates for when the highest and largest plateau on Earth reached its current elevation. Quantitative reconstructions of past elevation from geologic samples are necessary to document the uplift history of TP and examine the interactions between tectonic-relief and climate over geological time-scales. Several studies establishing lipid biomarker-based paleoaltimetry based on leaf wax δD values and brGDGTs have been reported in recent years for the TP and surrounding regions, but have yet to be synthesized into a regional framework for paleoelevation determination and uncertainty analysis. Here we report new leaf wax δD and brGDGTs data developed from surface soil samples along an elevation transect spanning ~1250–3900 m.a.s.l in the Hengduan Mountains on the southeastern edge of the TP. We find that the abundance-weighted mean leaf wax δD (n-C27, n-C29 and n-C31) values (δDwax) lapse rates determined for the Hengduan Mountains and for five other nearby study locations are statistically indistinguishable, and can be combined to provide a regional δDwax lapse rate of −1.97 ± 0.04‰ (1σ)/100 m for use in regional paleoelevation studies across the southeastern TP. We also find a strong correlation (R2 = 0.71) between brGDGTs and elevation-dependent mean annual air temperature, which contributes to a number of studies in the region that support the use of fossil brGDGTs as a paleoelevation proxy. Our results reveal that δDwax and brGDGTs for the Hengduan Mountains provide similar empirical uncertainty in paleoelevation reconstruction, with standard errors of elevation estimation (SE) of ±483 m (±1σ) and ± 394 m (±1σ), respectively. We propose a paleoaltimetric approach that combines δDwax and brGDGT data, in order to derive paleoelevation estimates with lower uncertainties. In the Hengduan Mountains data set, the approach yields a SE (±286 m; ±1σ) that is 27–40% lower than when δDwax values and brGDGTs are applied separately.