Unsustainable Trajectory Research Articles

Preying on the poor? Opportunities and challenges for tackling the social and environmental threats of cryptocurrencies for vulnerable and low-income communities

The rate of adoption of some cryptocurrencies is triggering alarm from energy researchers and social scientists concerned about the industry’s growing environmental and social impacts. In this paper we argue that the unsustainable trajectory of some cryptocurrencies disproportionately impacts poor and vulnerable communities where cryptocurrency producers and other actors take advantage of economic instabilities, weak regulations, and access to cheap energy and other resources. Globally, over 100 million people hold cryptocurrency, mostly as a speculative asset. The digital infrastructure behind the most popular cryptocurrency, bitcoin, currently requires as much energy as the whole of Thailand, with a carbon footprint exceeding the gold mining industry. Should bitcoin’s mass adoption continue, an escalating climate crisis is inevitable, disproportionately exacerbating social and environmental challenges for communities already experiencing multiple dimensions of deprivation. In mitigating these impacts, the paper considers 4 potential regulatory pathways, including: 1) promoting voluntary private-sector commitments to using only renewable energy, 2) encouraging a system of voluntary carbon offsetting, 3) using existing financial regulations and tax frameworks, and 4) imposing national and/or international bans on cryptocurrency ‘mining’. The paper argues that effective environmental regulation of cryptocurrencies is urgently required, both to reduce the threat of catastrophic climate change, and to help the world’s poorest towards sustainable development. However, regulating cryptocurrency mining in any context is likely to require a combination of efforts and is unlikely to result in win-win outcomes for all.

Sustainable small-scale fisheries markets in the Mediterranean: weaknesses and opportunities

Improved access to markets by small-scale fisheries (SSF), as called by Sustainable Development Goal 14b and other global and Mediterranean policy documents, is impeded by the existing organisation of value chains and market structures, which are typically antagonistic to the nature of SSF. This article analyses the markets in the Mediterranean to map the drivers and feedback loops that keep fisheries in an unsustainable trajectory and reviews the key innovations in support of a socially, economically and environmentally sustainable small-scale fishing sector. We show how the current market is dominated by lack of product traceability and underappreciation of the inherent value of SSF products (e.g. local production, freshness, season dependence, quantitatively and culinary varied nature). In addition, due to a lack of organisation and the capacity to act, small-scale fishers are poised to have little to no influence over the price. In what we conceptualise as a response to the negative effects of existing market structures, we identify and classify initiatives that add value to SSF products, but not exclusively. These are the shortening of the value chain, innovation in the distribution channel, diversification in the type of product offered, promotion and education regarding SSF products, label and brand development and the empowerment of SSF communities through improved leadership, ownership, cooperation and coordination. We provide examples of these activities and propose the key types of intervention at various levels of governance to accelerate and capitalise on them in order to accomplish policy goals and achieve a better status of both the oceans and the fishers.

Leverage points for addressing marine and coastal pollution: A review

Despite an increasing understanding of the issue of marine pollution, humanity continues on a largely unsustainable trajectory. This study aimed to identify and classify the range of scientific studies and interventions to address coastal and marine pollution. We reviewed 2417 scientific papers published between 2000 and 2018, 741 of which we analysed in depth. To classify pollution interventions, we applied the systems-oriented concept of leverage points, which focuses on places to intervene in complex systems to bring about systemic change. We found that pollution is largely studied as a technical problem and fewer studies engage with pollution as a systemic social-ecological issue. While recognising the importance of technical solutions, we highlight the need to focus on under-researched areas pertaining to the deeper drivers of pollution (e.g. institutions, values) which are needed to fundamentally alter system trajectories.

Leverage points to foster human\u2013nature connectedness in cultural landscapes

Calls for a reconnection to nature and the biosphere have been growing louder over the last decades. Cultural landscapes are rapidly changing, posing a threat to ecosystems and biodiversity, but also to human–nature connections. Human–nature connectedness may be a potential lever to shift the unsustainable trajectory that we are currently proceeding, but is also negatively influenced by it. To concretize the call for a reconnection to nature, we used the leverage points perspective on five empirical case studies with focus on human–nature connectedness. Based on the synthesis of our yearlong work, in this perspective paper, we propose four leverage points to foster a sustainability transformation: (1) maintain and enhance the structural diversity of landscapes, (2) maintain and enhance economically and ecologically sustainable small-scale agriculture, (3) strengthen sense of place and (4) strengthen sense of agency in actors. Intervening in these leverage points could be effective to foster human–nature connectedness and ultimately contribute towards a sustainable trajectory. We further argue that the interconnection between leverage points is equally important as their systemic depth.

Combining Remote Sensing and Crop Models to Assess the Sustainability of Stakeholder‐Driven Groundwater Management in the US High Plains Aquifer

AbstractNonrenewable groundwater contributes ∼20% of global irrigation water. As a result, key agricultural regions around the world are on unsustainable trajectories due to aquifer depletion, threatening food production and local economies. With increasing resource scarcity in the central High Plains Aquifer in the United States, an innovative stakeholder‐driven groundwater management framework emerged in Kansas referred to as the Local Enhanced Management Area (LEMA) program. This framework enables groups of irrigators to join together to implement measures to conserve groundwater. Here, we assessed the efficacy of the first LEMA to move the region toward sustainability with a process‐based crop model driven by well records and satellite‐derived annual land use. We found increased irrigation efficiency under the LEMA program reduced groundwater extraction by 25% (40 million m3). However, only 22% of pumping reductions benefitted the net water balance (9 million m3) due to decreased irrigation return flow resulting from increased irrigation efficiency. We then estimated economic impacts using simulated crop yields, commodity prices, and estimated energy saved from reduced groundwater pumping. Cost savings from reduced pumping were about 4.5 times greater than the income lost from minor yield penalties. This suggests that the program promotes both economic and water sustainability, but water targets may need to be more strict to stabilize groundwater levels. As aquifer depletion threatens crop production in many parts of the world, approaches that integrate dynamic process‐based models with in situ and satellite data can inform economically and hydrologically sustainable management strategies. Our work highlights the need to consider both economic factors and root zone processes when evaluating irrigation conservation programs.

Long-term transients help explain regime shifts in consumer-renewable resource systems

As planetary boundaries loom, there is an urgent need to develop sustainable equilibriums between societies and the resources they consume, thereby avoiding regime shifts to undesired states. Transient system trajectories to a stable state may differ substantially, posing significant challenges to distinguishing sustainable from unsustainable trajectories. We use stylized models to show how feedbacks between anthropogenic harvest regimes and resource availability drive transient dynamics. We show how substantial time lags may occur between interventions and social-ecological outcomes, and that sudden system collapses need not be linked to recent environmental changes. Historical reconstructions of island state populations show a variety of transient dynamics that closely corresponds to model expectations based on island differences in productivity and harvesting regime. We conclude that vulnerable social-ecological systems may persist when the population:resource ratio remains within a viable range of intermediate (rather than small) values, which implies that averting environmental crises may require counter-intuitive measures.

Unravelling the process between career shock and career (un)sustainability: exploring the role of perceived human resource management

PurposeEmployees need a sustainable career to prolong their working lives. The ability, motivation and opportunity to work form an important basis for sustainable careers across the lifespan. However, over the lifespan of their careers employees are likely to experience several career shocks (e.g. becoming chronically ill or being fired) which might result in unsustainable trajectories. This study aims to contribute to the literature on sustainable careers by unraveling the process through which careers shocks relate to career (un)sustainability and what role perceptions of human resource practices play in the process.Design/methodology/approachThirty-three in-depth retrospective interviews with participants of 50 years and older were conducted and analyzed using a template analysis.FindingsResults showed that career shocks influence career sustainability through a process of changes in demands or changes in resources, which in turn, relate to changes in person–job fit. When person-job–fit diminished, the ability, motivation and opportunity to continue working decreased, whereas when person–job fit improved, the ability, motivation and opportunity to continue working improved as well. Organizations appear to be able to diminish the negative consequences of career shocks by offering job resources such as HR practices in response to career shocks.Research limitations/implicationsA limitation of this study is the retrospective nature of the interviews, which could have resulted in recollection bias.Practical implicationsThis study gives HRM practitioners insight into the HR practices that are effective in overcoming career shocks.Originality/valueThis study extends existing literature by including career shocks as possible predictors of sustainable careers.

Levers and leverage points for pathways to sustainability

Abstract Humanity is on a deeply unsustainable trajectory. We are exceeding planetary boundaries and unlikely to meet many international sustainable development goals and global environmental targets. Until recently, there was no broadly accepted framework of interventions that could ignite the transformations needed to achieve these desired targets and goals. As a component of the IPBES Global Assessment, we conducted an iterative expert deliberation process with an extensive review of scenarios and pathways to sustainability, including the broader literature on indirect drivers, social change and sustainability transformation. We asked, what are the most important elements of pathways to sustainability? Applying a social–ecological systems lens, we identified eight priority points for intervention (leverage points) and five overarching strategic actions and priority interventions (levers), which appear to be key to societal transformation. The eight leverage points are: (1) Visions of a good life, (2) Total consumption and waste, (3) Latent values of responsibility, (4) Inequalities, (5) Justice and inclusion in conservation, (6) Externalities from trade and other telecouplings, (7) Responsible technology, innovation and investment, and (8) Education and knowledge generation and sharing. The five intertwined levers can be applied across the eight leverage points and more broadly. These include: (A) Incentives and capacity building, (B) Coordination across sectors and jurisdictions, (C) Pre‐emptive action, (D) Adaptive decision‐making and (E) Environmental law and implementation. The levers and leverage points are all non‐substitutable, and each enables others, likely leading to synergistic benefits. Transformative change towards sustainable pathways requires more than a simple scaling‐up of sustainability initiatives—it entails addressing these levers and leverage points to change the fabric of legal, political, economic and other social systems. These levers and leverage points build upon those approved within the Global Assessment's Summary for Policymakers, with the aim of enabling leaders in government, business, civil society and academia to spark transformative changes towards a more just and sustainable world. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Political Aspect as the Main Constraint to Realize Green Growth In East Kalimantan

The journey of economic growth and development is on an unsustainable trajectory, marked by conditions that endanger natural assets and environmental services, both of which form the basis of long-term economic growth and human well-being. Indonesia is the 6th largest emitter in the world, while East Kalimantan itself is the 6th largest emitter nationally. The fundamental question that often arises in the author's mind is "can economic prosperity be obtained by marginalizing natural factors which are then deemed insignificant? In response to this, a concept known as green growth emerged. To discuss this, the author uses qualitative methods. This method provides a form of data collection and analysis that focuses on emphasizing and understanding meaning. The data collected comes from official documents and other supporting documents. The author makes interpretations of what is seen, heard and understood. The results showed that in order to achieve Green economic growth in East Kalimantan, political, economic and social aspects must be considered.Political aspects are the most important thing because policies play a key role in realizing green growth, policy makers can build green growth strategies, with the help of their commitments. However, the political, social and economic aspects are interrelated and mutually supportive.

Conceptualising variations in societal transformations towards sustainability

Calls for societal transformations in response to climate change and unsustainable trajectories are surging in scientific journals, political proposals and news media. The multifaceted usages of the concept of transformation creates challenges for scientific assessments, such as those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, as well as for the implementation of the Paris Agreement process, the 2030 Agenda on Sustainable Development, the EU’s long-term climate strategy, the European Green Deal, and other political decisions. In this paper, we suggest an analytical framework to differentiate between how sustainability transformations are made sense of in terms of system level, pace and scope. We distinguish between four general modes of transformations: quantum leap, convergent, emergent, and gradual approaches. We also discuss how they can be used to make sense of interventions to foster major sustainability transformations. We expand on three examples of interventions that were pertinent in our cross-country studies: technological innovations, transformative learning and the formulation of new narratives of sustainable societies.

Overcoming the process-structure divide in conceptions of Social-Ecological Transformation: Assessing the transformative character and impact of change processes

A fundamental transformation towards sustainability in face of complex social-ecological challenges needs to initiate deep changes of those incumbent system structures that support unsustainable trajectories, while at the same time encouraging a diversity of alternative practices. A review of transformation approaches towards sustainability shows that these do not (sufficiently) link processes of change at the micro level to deep leverages of change in wider system structures.Addressing this research gap, we develop a conceptual framework for a social-ecological transformation that connects the macro and the micro level and helps to bridge process-oriented and structural approaches to transformation. At the macro level, the objectives of inter- and intragenerational justice need to be pursued by challenging the central paradigms that constitute unsustainable trajectories. To make the framework concrete and applicable in practice, we propose a preliminary set of evaluation principles for the micro and meso level that reflect these normative objectives and help to measure the transformative character and transformative impact of change processes. The example of the European Organic Breeding Network illustrates the application of the framework.An Ecological Economics research that is reflective of its transformative quality in light of the incumbent paradigms can make important contributions to transformation research.

Is China Helping Africa? Growth and Public Debt Effects of the Subcontinent's Biggest Investor

Because of the lack of reliable data, it is difficult to reliably answer the questions that many people are asking about China's activities in Africa: are the modes and magnitudes of Chinese finance creating unsustainable public finance and economic trajectories and — if they are — whose fault is it? Based on the available information and a rough analysis of the match between China's activities and Africa's development demands, we conclude that Chinese finance appears to have helped development on the subcontinent and has not — by itself — jeopardized its public finances: while public debt to GDP ratios have risen in the top ten recipients of Chinese loans, debt to China is generally a small portion of their external public debt. But China’s role in the debt dynamics of some of these countries — that is, the speed at which their external public debt is growing — provides more reason to worry.

A Time-Varying Fiscal Reaction Function for Brazil

Abstract This paper evaluates the sustainability of public debt in Brazil using monthly data from January 2003 to June 2016, based on the estimation of fiscal reaction functions with time-varying coefficients. Three estimation methods are considered: Kalman filter, penalized spline smoothing and time-varying cointegration. Besides indicating that the reaction of the primary deficit to variations in the debt/GDP ratio declined over most of the analyzed period, all these methods lead to the conclusion that the Brazilian public debt, given the parameters then in force, reached an unsustainable trajectory in the last years of the sample.

Ensuring sustainable development by curbing consumerism: An eco‐spiritual perspective

AbstractThe contemporary economic growth models have directed the economies on an unsustainable trajectory where the present generation seems disenchanted with the heap of waste, debt, and insufficiency inherited from their forefathers. The present paper is an attempt to analyze the cause of consumerism and recommend an eco‐spiritual policy perspective for ensuring sustainable development. The paper analyzes that the United Nations recently announced Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) cannot lead the economies towards sustainable development. Ensuring sustainable development will require curbing consumerism consciously through exploring the unexplored spiritual dimension, which can inspire humanity to lead a life of simplicity, moderation, and minimum desires for sustainable and all‐inclusive development. It has been stressed that aspiration of breakthrough result requires moving away from the external to the inward synthesis of the spiritual aspects, which believes in co‐existence, acknowledging care, and concern for both human beings and the nature. The paper argues for an eco‐spiritual perspective for furthering the goal of sustainability.

Sustainability marketing. The need for a realistic whole systems approach

ABSTRACTSustainability marketing addresses market-related issues that threaten quality of life. While its major research strands belong to the same research domain, its theoretically fragmented approach hinders the field’s ability to successfully address the systemic nature of sustainability issues. To help remedy this situation, this paper positions critical realism as a metatheoretical framework to integrate, bridge and extend the sustainability marketing field. It argues critical realism’s ontological approach can reconcile the field’s fragmented approach as well as generate systemic insights into the multiscalar, interdependent, emergent and non-linear issues caused by marketing systems. As such, this realist contribution provides an inclusive metatheoretical foundation to deliver a more realistic whole systems approach. This would enable sustainable marketing to generate systemic theories of change to both understand and potentially emancipate society from its unsustainable trajectories.

Weak sustainability is not sustainable: Socioeconomic and environmental assessment of Inner Mongolia for the past three decades

Inner Mongolia of China is distinguished by its size, expansive grasslands, and rich endowment of natural resources – particularly coal. Since China’s “Reform and Opening Up”, Inner Mongolia’s socioeconomic trajectory has resembled that of China as a whole: a rapid rise in GDP, urbanization, and human development. But behind this rosy picture, has Inner Mongolia really been on a sustainable trajectory? To address this question, we quantified the temporal patterns of socioeconomic growth, energy consumption, and food and water footprints of Inner Mongolia from 1987 to 2015. Our results show that during the past three decades Inner Mongolia’s per-capita income increased 8.5 times; urban population nearly doubled; adult literacy improved by nearly 30%; and life expectancy increased by more than 23% (about 15 years). However, this socioeconomic progress was accompanied by rapid rising environmental pressures. Between 1987 and 2015, water resource use increased four-fold, energy consumption increased approximately seven-fold, and large areas of natural grasslands were converted to agricultural, industrial, and urban land use. These impacts were exacerbated by large-scale coal production. To become more sustainable, Inner Mongolia’s development needs to better balance socioeconomic development and environmental protection, following a strong sustainability-oriented development model based on China’s new policy blueprint of “Ecological Civilization”. Towards this end, our study not only gauges the past unsustainable trajectory of Inner Mongolia, but also provides a scientific benchmark for promoting a more sustainable future for the region and beyond.

Land and water use changes in the US–Mexico border region, 1992–2011

The linkages between land and water use are often neglected when considering resource management. Here, we examined regional changes in land and water use along the US–Mexico border in the decades following the North American Free Trade Agreement, using bi-national land cover maps from 1992–2011, a process-based hydrology and irrigation model driven with long-term meteorological data, and agricultural production and urban water demand statistics. During the study period, land and water use in the region partially re-oriented around the needs of US cities, leading to crop to urban conversions and water savings in the US, while agricultural and urban expansion in Mexico resulted in local aquifer exploitation and reduced river flows. We identified that land uses with lower rates of water consumption (urban in US and agriculture in Mexico) expanded more than those with higher demands (irrigated agriculture in US and urban in Mexico) due to the water scarcity in the region. This resulted in divergent trends in the US and Mexico that in aggregate has led to an unsustainable trajectory in land and water resources.

Unsustainable trajectories of domestic information technology use in Australia: Exploring diversity and the life course

Current trajectories of the proliferation and use of information technology (IT) in households present an example of rapid socio‐technical change in an unsustainable direction. We document patterns in the proliferation, use and accumulation of IT in households in Australia, drawing on data from an online national survey (N = 1,475) and qualitative interviews conducted during 2015 and 2016 (N = 36, with participants from three cities and one regional town). We identified cohorts of IT users who shared specific use practices and found that age, life course and income were important for defining and understanding these cohorts. IT practices change with life course transitions, such as children moving through the education system. Practices may be linked with changes in residence and income, and provide opportunities for interventions at such times when both technology and its use are changing anyway. The most concerning development was the use of multiple devices simultaneously, particularly when this included live streaming of high‐resolution video and audio. This practice is increasing in households with teenagers and young adults, and is likely, if unchecked, to become a significant driver of energy demand. We conclude by reflecting on the implications of our findings for (1) influencing current unsustainable trajectories of IT use into the future and (2) conceptualising the agency of householders in socio‐technical change involving fast‐changing technologies. There is an increasing research focus on the multiplicity of transition pathways, but a focus on the life course can, we argue, bring a new and important dimension to this understanding.

A Framework for Tracing Social–Ecological Trajectories and Traps in Intensive Agricultural Landscapes

Charting trajectories toward sustainable agricultural development is an important goal at the food–energy–water–ecosystem services (FEWES) nexus of agricultural landscapes. Social–ecological adaptation and transformation are two broad strategies for adjusting and resetting the trajectories of productive FEWES nexuses toward sustainable futures. In some cases, financial incentives, technological innovations, and/or subsidies associated with the short-term optimization of a small number of resources create and strengthen unsustainable feedbacks between social and ecological entities at the FEWES nexus. These feedbacks form the basis of rigidity traps, which impede adaptation and transformation by locking FEWES nexuses into unsustainable trajectories characterized by control, stability, and efficiency, but also an inability to adapt to disturbances or changing conditions. To escape and avoid rigidity traps and enable sustainability-focused adaptation and transformation, a foundational understanding of FEWES nexuses and their unique trajectories and traps is required. We present a framework for tracing trajectories and traps at the FEWES nexuses of intensive agricultural landscapes. Framework implementation in a case study reveals feedbacks characteristic of rigidity traps, as well as opportunities for modifying and dissolving them. Such place-based understanding could inform sustainable agricultural development at the FEWES nexus of intensive agricultural landscapes worldwide.

Payment Reform to Enhance Collaboration of Primary Care and Cardiology

The US health care system faces an unsustainable trajectory of high costs and inconsistent outcomes. The fee-for-service payment model has contributed to inefficiency, and new payment methods are a promising approach to improving value. Health reforms are needed to increase patient access, reduce costs, and improve health care quality, and the landmark Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act presents a roadmap for reform. The product of a collaboration between primary care and cardiology clinicians, this review describes a conceptual approach to delivery and payment reforms that aim to better support primary care-cardiology comanagement of chronic cardiovascular disease (CVD). Few existing alternative payment models specifically address long-term management of CVD. Primary care medical homes and accountable care organizations come closest, but both emphasize primary care, and cardiologists have often not been well engaged. A collaborative care framework should articulate distinct roles and responsibilities for primary care and cardiology in CVD comanagement. Finally, a series of payment models aim to better support clinicians in providing accountable, seamless, and patient-centered cardiac care. Clinical leadership is essential during this time of change in the health care system. Patients often struggle to navigate a fragmented and expensive system, whereas clinicians often practice with incomplete information about tests, treatments, and recommendations by their colleagues. The payment models described in this review offer an opportunity to create more satisfying approaches to patient care while improving value. These models have potential to support more effective coordination and to facilitate broader health care system transformation.