Unsecured Debt Research Articles

Parental Credit Constraints and Child College Attendance

Parents in the United States frequently supplement the student loans available to their children by cosigning on a loan, borrowing against their home equity, or with unsecured debt in their own names. This paper investigates whether some students are constrained from attending and completing college by their parents’ lack of access to credit markets by linking individual parental credit scores to their children's educational attainment. I find that good parental credit significantly improves the child's probability of attending college. Suggestive evidence is provided that the estimated relationship may be causal and not biased by omitted factors, such as unobserved ability or other personality characteristics.

Macroprudential Policy and Financial (In)Stability Analysis in the Russian Federation

We study a small open economy New Keynesian model calibrated to the Russian economy with a banking system that trades secured and unsecured debt. Firms endogenously default on their unsecured debt obligations over the business cycle. We examine the effectiveness of four alternative countercyclical policies that respond to the growth in unsecured credit in the economy. The lean-against-the-wind monetary policy is the most effective in simultaneously affecting the real economy and stabilizing the banking system in response to both oil price and total factor productivity shocks. The countercyclical deposit reserve requirement was found to play a stabilizing role following an oil shock, while the countercyclical capital adequacy requirement helped to stabilize the banking system after a total factor productivity shock.

Who Files for Bankruptcy? The Heterogeneous Impact of State Laws on a Household’s Bankruptcy Decision

Abstract This article examines the heterogeneous impact of state exemption laws and state garnishment laws on bankruptcy. Using a new household-level dataset, my empirical specification simultaneously examines the impact these laws have on a household’s bankruptcy decision as well as a household’s assets and unsecured debts. I find that high exemption laws have a positive impact on bankruptcy and that this effect is increasing in assets. Additionally, I find that high garnishment rates have a positive impact on bankruptcy, which is increasing in income. Moreover, I examine the policy implications of standardizing state exemption laws and state garnishments laws. Understanding the heterogeneous effects of these laws is crucial as they suggest that a household with a given set of financial characteristics will seek bankruptcy relief if it resides in one state but will have to use alternative consumption smoothing measures if it lives in a different state.

Household Debt and Children’s Risk of Food Insecurity

AbstractIn the United States, almost one in six households with children cannot access adequate food for a healthy and active lifestyle. Although food insecurity disproportionately affects lower-income households, it remains unclear why some lower-income families are more vulnerable to food insecurity than others. Household unsecured debt, such as debt incurred from credit cards and medical bills, may be an unexplored financial constraint associated with food insecurity. Using data from the 2014 Child Development Supplement (CDS) of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), I assess whether unsecured debt, by amount and type of debt, is associated with food insecurity among lower-income households with children (N=1,319). Results indicate that medical debt increases odds of household food insecurity even after accounting for key sociodemographic and economic risk factors, while no relationship exists between other forms of unsecured debt and food insecurity. Moreover, although liquid assets decrease the risk of household food insecurity and attenuate the harmful effects associated with unpaid medical bills, few households have enough liquid assets to mitigate the risks associated with medical debt. Efforts to prevent medical debt may be essential for eliminating food insecurity among lower-income households with children.

Rising Household Debt and Children's Socioemotional Well-being Trajectories.

Debt is now a substantial aspect of family finances. Yet, research on how household debt is linked with child development has been limited. We use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort and hierarchical linear models to estimate associations of amounts and types of parental debt (home, education, auto, unsecured/uncollateralized) with child socioemotional well-being. We find that unsecured debt is associated with growth in child behavior problems, whereas this is not the case for other forms of debt. Moreover, the association of unsecured debt with child behavior problems varies by child age and socioeconomic status, with younger children and children from less-advantaged families experiencing larger associations of unsecured debt with greater behavior problems.

TIMING IS MONEY: DOES LUMP‐SUM PAYMENT OF THE EARNED INCOME TAX CREDIT AFFECT SAVINGS AND DEBT?

Earned income tax credit (EITC) benefit income is paid out in a lump‐sum around tax time. We investigate whether savings and debt among EITC‐eligible families reflect the timing of payments. Using nationally representative, individual‐level data on self‐reported debt and savings outcomes, we search for differences in monthly behavior between EITC‐eligible and ‐ineligible households. We find evidence that credit card and unsecured debt holding among EITC‐eligible families reflects the timing of the EITC, with low debt levels at tax time relative to other months. Debt holding among ineligible families with children does not exhibit a similar pattern. We find limited evidence of intrayear patterns in savings behavior among EITC‐eligible families. (JEL D14, I38, H23)

Financial literacy and household finances: A Bayesian two-part latent variable modeling approach

Abstract We propose a Bayesian two-part latent variable model (TPLVM) to investigate the impacts of financial literacy on both sides of the household balance sheet, namely, household debt (secured debt and unsecured debt) and assets (housing assets and non-housing financial assets) by using a national sample from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS). TPLVM is an advanced joint modeling approach that integrates a factor analysis model and a two-part model to reveal the relationship between the latent variable, financial literacy, and multiple semi-continuous responses. The factor analysis model characterizes the latent financial literacy index on the basis of multiple manifest variables derived from a series of questions on various aspects of financial knowledge. The two-part model simultaneously evaluates the different influential patterns of latent and observable explanatory variables on the binary and continuous parts of multiple semi-continuous responses. Both the simulation study and the real sample analysis show that the developed one-stage methodology significantly outperforms the conventional methods. In the analysis of the CHFS data set, comprehensive results on the relationship between financial literacy and household finances are obtained, highlighting the flexibility of our framework. The empirical results reveal that the financial literacy of Chinese households is alarmingly low, and financial literacy indeed influences household finances in different aspects simultaneously. Thus, it is of importance to consider effective ways to enhance the financial sophistication of household heads to guide them in their household financial behavior and decision making.

Financialisation, Welfare Retrenchment and Subsistence Debt in Britain

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the dynamics of low income household (LIH) indebtedness under austerity in Britain. Building on a range of political economy studies on the role of the state in the process of financialisation, the paper discusses the transition in the nature of LIH indebtedness in connection to the recent welfare retrenchment. The analysis of survey data and semi-structured interviews establishes the fact that LIHs experienced the greatest growth in unsecured debt to income ratio under austerity. More importantly, unlike the pre-crisis period when LIHs’ debt reflected a desire ‘to keep-up with the Joneses’, post crisis, a different form of indebtedness has emerged. There has been a notable rise in debt for essential needs such as rent, food and utility services. Liabilities are not only owed to banks and fringe providers (payday lenders, money shops, etc.) but also to non-financial companies and local authorities which have become de facto creditors. The evidence in this paper shows that these changes are directly related to the austerity measures, especially, to the cuts in welfare budgets and the intensified use of ‘disciplinary techniques’ in the form of sanctions and administrative / legal enforcement of debt collection by public sector entities.

The Persistence of Financial Distress

AbstractUsing proprietary panel data, we show that many U.S. consumers experience financial distress (35% when distress is defined by having debt in severe delinquency, e.g.) at some point in their lives. However, most distress events are concentrated on a much smaller proportion of consumers in persistent trouble: fewer than 10% of borrowers account for half of all distress events. These facts can be largely accounted for in a straightforward extension of a workhorse model of unsecured debt with informal default that accommodates a simple form of heterogeneity in time preference.Received November 10, 2017; editorial decision November 12, 2018 by Editor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh.

Banks Risk Taking and Creditors Bargaining Power

We analyze the influence of unsecured debt (subdebt) on risk-shifting in banks whose assets are risky debt claims. We assume that the stockholders and subdebt-holders jointly decide on risk-shifting. We show that replacing part of the stock with subdebt: (1) leads to fewer risk-shifting events, but can lead to higher levels of risk, depending on the relative bargaining power, (2) does not change the level of risk-shifting when side payments are possible, and (3) may yield the surprising result that risk-shifting increases with tighter regulatory control.

Bank Funding Costs and Capital Structure

If bail-in is credible, risk premia on bank securities should decrease as funding sources junior to and alongside them in the creditor hierarchy increase. Other things equal, we find that when banks have more equity and less subordinated debt they have lower risk premia on both. When banks have more subordinated and less senior unsecured debt, senior unsecured risk premia are lower. For percentage point changes to an average balance sheet, these reductions would offset about two thirds of the higher cost of equity relative to subordinated debt and one third of the spread between subordinated and senior unsecured debt.

Trajectories of Unsecured Debt across the Life Course and Mental Health at Midlife.

In this paper, we contribute to a growing literature on debt and mental health and ask whether patterns of unsecured debt accumulation and repayment over two decades are associated with depressive symptoms at age 50. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1979 Cohort and group trajectory models, we have three key findings. First, we find substantial heterogeneity in debt trajectories across the life course. Second, respondents who report consistently high debt levels across the life course or who cycle in and out of high debt report significantly more depressive symptoms than respondents who hold consistently low levels of debt. These findings hold for both absolute and relative (debt-to-income) debt. Third, we find that the association between debt and depressive symptoms is strongest among respondents with less than a college degree, but we find less evidence for heterogeneity by race in this cohort.

Withholding Transcripts: Policy, Possibilities, and Legal Recourse

Although scholars usually think of America’s 1.4 trillion in student loans as unsecured debt, institutions of higher education do have a right akin to a security interest in some circumstances: they can withhold a student’s official transcript. In fact, the Department of Education “encourages” schools to withhold transcripts for unpaid Perkins loans or other debts owed directly to the institution. A withheld transcript puts a borrower, and particularly a non-completer, in a double bind. She may need the transcript to complete her degree to get a higher paying job. But without the higher paying job she cannot get the extra income to pay off her debt and have her transcript released. Although student loan practitioners are anecdotally reporting an increase in cases related to withheld transcripts, there is currently no administrative data available for how frequently this practice occurs. This paper begins to answer these questions and aims to lay an outline for future scholarship on the issue. In Part I, it outlines the current state of transcript withholding, discussing the applicable state and federal laws — or lack thereof. Part I also dives deeper into Ohio’s administrative data to give a sense of the scope of the practice in at least one state, and finally points to the bankruptcy code to give a sense of the practice’s use across the country. Part II turns to the legal theories that underpin the school-student relationship. There has been a deep inconsistency across courts as to who actually owns an official transcript and the extent to which formalized contract principles override the property principles at play. Part III discusses largely untested legal theories that could be available to students who wish to challenge current practices. Finally, Part IV turns to the public policy concerns at play, concluding that the current widespread use of transcript withholding may not be in the best economic interest of students or schools.

The Impact of Credit Scoring on Credit Spreads and Consumption Over the Business Cycle

Unsecured debt is the marginal source of finance for most consumers. Short run fluctuations in the credit spread on consumer unsecured debt, therefore, likely have important implications for consumer welfare. We document that the credit spread on consumer unsecured debt exhibits a persistent, hump-shaped response to an increase in the charge-off rate. This stylized fact poses a significant challenge for a standard model of consumer default in which lenders have rational expectations and, therefore, the credit spread continuously adjusts to reflect the true default incentives of each borrower. In an effort to explain this feature of the data, we construct a model of consumer default with countercyclical income risk in which lenders learn about default risk over time by observing the history of repayment decisions, as is the case in practice. In addition to matching credit spread dynamics, allowing lenders to learn about default risk substantially improves the model's ability to generate realistic business cycle fluctuations in the consumer unsecured credit market and match the cross-sectional distribution of unsecured debt and dispersion of interest rates observed in the data.

THE IMPACT OF LEARNING ON BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CONSUMER UNSECURED CREDIT MARKET

We document that the credit spread on consumer unsecured debt exhibits a persistent, hump-shaped response to an increase in the charge-off rate. This stylized fact poses a significant challenge for a standard model of consumer default in which lenders have rational expectations and, therefore, the credit spread continuously adjusts to reflect the true default incentives of each borrower. In an effort to explain this feature of the data, we construct a model of consumer default with countercyclical income risk in which lenders learn about default risk over time by observing the history of repayment decisions, as is the case in practice. In addition to matching credit spread dynamics, allowing lenders to learn about default risk substantially improves the model’s ability to generate realistic business cycle fluctuations in the consumer unsecured credit market and match the cross-sectional distribution of unsecured debt and dispersion of interest rates observed in the data.

Debt Holder Monitoring and Implicit Guarantees: Did the BRRD Improve Market Discipline?

This paper argues that the European Unions Banking Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) improved market discipline in the European bank market for unsecured debt. The different impact of the BRRD on bank bonds provides a quasi-natural experiment that allows to study the effect of the BRRD within banks using a difference-in-difference approach. Identification is based on the fact that (otherwise identical) bonds of a given bank maturing before 2016 are explicitly protected from BRRD bail-in. The empirical results are consistent with the hypothesis that debt holders actively monitor banks and that the BRRD diminished bail-out expectations. Bank bonds subject to BRRD bail-in carry a 10 basis points bail-in premium in terms of the yield spread. While there is some evidence that the bail-in premium is more pronounced for non-GSIB banks and banks domiciled in peripheral European countries, weak capitalization is the main driver. JEL Classification: G18, G21, H81

Asset Encumbrance, Bank Funding, and Fragility

We model asset encumbrance by banks subject to rollover risk and study the consequences for fragility, funding costs, and prudential regulation. A bank’s privately optimal encumbrance choice balances the benefit of expanding profitable, yet illiquid, investment funded by cheap long-term senior secured debt, against the cost of greater fragility from runs on unsecured debt. We derive testable implications about encumbrance ratios. The introduction of deposit insurance or wholesale funding guarantees induces excessive encumbrance and fragility. Limits on asset encumbrance or Pigovian taxes eliminate such risk-shifting incentives. Our results shed light on prudential policies currently being pursued in several jurisdictions. Received September 9, 2017; editorial decision July 28, 2018 by Editor Philip Strahan.

Raising bank loss absorption capacity through equity capital or bail-in debt

PurposeBased upon recent statements made by the European Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee, a group of well-known professors coming from ten European countries, during the period 2012-2017, this paper aims to analyze from a European perspective the adequacy and credibility of the proposed framework.Design/methodology/approachThis paper is a summary and interpretation of statements from the European Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee.FindingsThe authors argue that the credibility of the bail-in mechanism is likely to be limited. Because of this, unexpected losses may not be absorbed by unsecured debt holders. Therefore, there is still a need for relatively high equity capital buffers.Originality/valueThe issue of how to raise loss absorption capacity for banks is prominent on the international policy agenda. International regulators are aiming for a combination of equity capital, typically raised by issuing shares, retaining profits and issuing contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds and bail-in debt where unsecured creditors such as holders of subordinated and common bonds are supposed to take losses in case of a bankruptcy or restructuring of a bank.

Short-term lending: Payday loans as risk factors for anxiety, inflammation and poor health

While research now consistently links consumer financial debt with adverse emotional health outcomes, specific forms of debt and their impact on measures of physical health are underexplored. This gap in knowledge is significant because different forms of loans and debt may have different experiential qualities. In this paper, we focus on a type of unsecured debt - short-term/payday loan borrowing – that has risen dramatically in recent decades in the United States and is characterized by predatory, discriminatory, and poorly regulated lending practices. Using data from a study of debt and health among adults in Boston, MA (n=286), we test whether short-term borrowing is associated with a range of emotional and physical health indicators. We find that short-term loans are associated with higher body mass index, waist circumference, C-reactive protein levels, and self-reported symptoms of physical health, sexual health, and anxiety, after controlling for several socio-demographic covariates. We discuss these findings within the contexts of regulatory shortcomings, psychosocial stress, and racial and economic credit disparities. We suggest that within the broader context of financial debt and health, short-term loans should be considered a specific risk to population health.

How Does Access to the Unsecured Debt Market Affect Investment?

This paper examines the relation between debt structure and investment, by exploiting differences in secured and unsecured debt holdings. In order to address endogeneity concerns, I exploit two sources of exogenous variation for identification. From the firms' side, the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 represents a negative shock to firms' creditworthiness. From the credit market's perspective, the asset-backed commercial paper market collapse of 2007 caused a temporary shortage of unsecured commercial paper. Each of these shocks to debt structure is analyzed combining a difference-in-differences approach with an instrumental variable estimation (Waldinger (2010)), which allows studying i) substitution patterns among debt types and ii) the impact on investment. Results show that greater access to unsecured debt leads to larger investment. When firms face more restricted access to the unsecured debt market, they substitute toward secured debt, and reduce investment. The reason behind this result is that unsecured debt is more cost-effective in terms of spreads and covenants. These findings suggest that collateral is not key to finance investment, as instead has often been claimed in the literature. Creditworthiness rather than collateral is key to access unsecured debt. Additionally, I shed light on how access to the unsecured debt market relates to the balance sheet and credit channels of monetary policy.