Unpredictable Threat Research Articles

Spatiotemporal changes of landslide susceptibility in response to rainfall and its future prediction — A case study of Sichuan Province, China

In recent decades, global warming has significantly altered both the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall patterns. This change has heightened the risk of rainfall-induced landslides, which are the most prevalent natural disasters in the mountainous regions of southwestern China. These events pose unpredictable and severe threats to the region, making it essential to forecast future rainfall trends and assess how landslide susceptibility will respond to these changes. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for developing effective strategies to mitigate and adapt to the changing rainfall patterns that influence landslides. This study focuses on Sichuan Province, China, and uses annual cumulative rainfall (ACR) as a key dynamic variable to create landslide susceptibility maps (LSMs). The goal is to explore the evolving relationship between rainfall and landslide susceptibility and use future rainfall projections to predict these risks. To achieve this, a historical landslide geospatial database was compiled across five temporal categories: 2000, 2001–2005, 2006–2010, 2011–2015, and 2016–2020. The extreme learning machine (ELM) was applied to generate LSMs for the years 2000 to2020, while an elasticity framework was used to assess how sensitive landslide susceptibility is to rainfall variations. To project future scenarios, a long short-term memory (LSTM) model was employed to project the ACR for 2030, using monthly rainfall data from 2000 to 2020. This projected ACR was then used to estimate future landslide susceptibility. Results showed a marked increase in high landslide susceptibility areas: 5.6 % by 2005, 0.3 % by 2010, 0.2 % by 2015, and 12.9 % by 2020, all relative to the year 2000. The elasticity analysis revealed that from 2000 to 2020, a 1 % change in rainfall would cause an average 1.35 % change in landslide susceptibility. Looking forward to 2030, the projected rise in ACR is expected to lead to a 2.44 % increase in areas of high landslide susceptibility. Multiple validation techniques were applied to ensure reliability and robustness of these findings.

War shock and the economy

AbstractThe main features of war shock are substantially different from those of the preceding COVID-19 shock. The EU economy is showing important elements of resilience. The existing structural forces and adaptive capacity of the EU economy are clear indications that it is capable of transformation and avoiding recession.The dynamics of the war is also crucial in terms of economic impacts. There are still many uncertainties about the future course of the war and its ramifications. The fundamental question is whether the war is heading in the direction of escalation or de-escalation. Unless the war spreads beyond Ukraine and the conventional means of warfare, its global economic consequences may be limited after the initial shock. New adjustment processes in the field of green and digital transition can be set in motion in parallel with the suffering and turmoil of war shock. New market players could emerge in the energy markets.The prolonged war continues to challenge the Ukrainian economy, but it can remain viable with massive external support. The Russian economy could suffer serious erosion, with its comparative advantage being wasted.There is a real threat of deglobalisation and the emergence of a fragmented world economy, but the counteracting factors appear to be much stronger. However, the prolonged war continues to pose major and unpredictable threats to the countries affected directly and indirectly, to Europe and to the world economy.

Redefining cyber resilience : Through the risk register lens

Resilience is deeper than maintaining a company’s operations and services in the face of significant disruptions. It is the ability of a business to withstand, pivot and continue to grow in the face of a significant threat. To achieve resilience, companies must have an integrated, end-to-end understanding of how a specific threat magnifies the risks identified on their risk register, and what measures are needed across the enterprise to address the amplification of those risks. This paper details how the need for a holistic approach is especially important for cyber crises, compared with other types of crises, because they tend to have more broad-ranging impacts and complexities, such as: unclear timelines, lack of public empathy, unpredictable human threat actor(s), as well as a broader set of internal and external stakeholders that need to be engaged. Unlike other crises, cyber crises have the potential to magnify most — if not all — of the risks on the risk register. As such, cyber resilience requires ensuring that key stakeholders, whether shareholders, customers, regulators, business partners, employees, etc, stay resolute in their faith in a company and its leadership’s ability to navigate the increasingly complex issues related to cyber risks and how these issues are addressed enterprise-wide, not purely seen through the lens of technical or operational resilience. To achieve cyber resilience, organisations must develop and implement programmes that integrate both the technical and the broader business measures needed to limit fallout, demonstrate leadership through cyber crises, and deepen trust regardless of the potential severity of the impact.

Bed nucleus of the stria terminalis network responses to unpredictable threat in early alcohol abstinence.

Anxiety during early alcohol abstinence, likely resulting from neural changes caused by chronic alcohol use, contributes to high relapse rates. Studies in rodents show heightened activation during early abstinence in the bed nucleus of the stria terminalis (BNST)-a neural hub for anxiety-and its extended anxiety-related corticolimbic network. Despite the clinical importance of early abstinence, few studies investigate the underlying neural mechanisms. To address this gap, we investigated brain function in early alcohol abstinence (EA = 20, 9 women) relative to controls (HC = 20, 11 women) using an unpredictable threat task shown to engage the BNST and corticolimbic brain regions involved in anxiety and alcohol use disorder (AUD). Group, anxiety, and sex were predictors used to determine whole-brain activation and BNST functional connectivity. We found widespread interactions of group × anxiety and group × anxiety × sex for both activation and BNST connectivity during unpredictable threat. In the EA group, higher anxiety was correlated with activation in the BNST, rostral anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), insula (men only), and dorsal ACC (men only). In the HC group, higher anxiety was negatively correlated with activation in the BNST, nucleus accumbens, thalamus, and insula (men only). For connectivity, anxiety was positively correlated in EA and negatively correlated in HC, between the BNST and the amygdala, ventromedial prefrontal cortex (PFC), and dorsomedial PFC; EA men showed stronger BNST-vmPFC connectivity than HC men. These novel findings provide preliminary evidence for alterations in the BNST and anxiety-related corticolimbic brain regions in early alcohol abstinence, adding to growing literature in humans supporting the BNST's role in anxiety and sex-dependent effects of chronic alcohol use.

Inbound friend or foe: how motion bistability is resolved under threat

Anxiety prepares us to deal with unpredictable threats, such as the approaching of an unknown person. Studies have shown our innate tendency to see approaching motion in ambiguous walkers in what was termed facing-the-viewer (FTV) bias. Here we investigated if anxiety states further contributed to this bias, hypothesizing that such states would increase overall FTV biases. Throughout three Experiments, we asked participants to judge the motion direction of ambiguous point-light walkers and measured their respective FTV biases under safe and anxiety-related conditions induced via imagery (Experiment 1), screaming sounds (Experiment 2), and threat of shock (Experiment 3). Across all experiments, we showed that anxiety does not affect our tendency to perceive an approaching behavior in ambiguous walkers. Based on our findings, and the discrepancies found in the literature, we emphasize the need for future studies to paint a clearer picture on the nature and aspects capable of affecting this bias.

Altered Effective Connectivity During Threat Anticipation in Individuals With Alcohol Use Disorder

BackgroundA developing theory and recent research suggest that heightened reactivity to uncertain stressors or threats may be an important individual difference factor that facilitates excessive drinking as a means of avoidance-based coping and characterizes individuals with current and past alcohol use disorder (AUD). Neuroimaging studies of unpredictable threat processing have repeatedly demonstrated activation of the anterior insula, anteromedial thalamus, and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex. In the current study, we aimed to understand how these 3 regions function as a network during anticipation of unpredictable threat (and predictable threat). MethodsParticipants were 43 adults (ages 21–30) with AUD and 26 healthy control participants. Functional magnetic resonance imaging and dynamic causal modeling were used to study interregional effective connectivities and predictable and unpredictable threat-related modulations thereof within this network. Parametric empirical Bayesian modeling was used to conduct between-group comparisons in effective connectivities. ResultsDuring unpredictable threat trials, the increased projection from the right anteromedial thalamus to the right anterior insula was significantly present only in the AUD group. This directional influence was stronger among individuals who consumed more drinks per week on average. As expected, we found no group differences in modulatory changes to effective connectivities during predictable threat trials. ConclusionsTo our knowledge, this is the first study to examine directional interactions between key frontolimbic regions during anticipation of unpredictable and predictable threat and demonstrate the importance of bottom-up thalamic-insular projections during unpredictable threat processing in AUD. Prospective studies are warranted to determine whether this association is causal.

Ritual, Risk, and Danger: Avoidance Rituals among Antiquity Looters

This paper deals with the role of taboos and avoidance rituals as a means of psycho-cultural adaptation to taking personal risks among illicit antiquity looters in the Black Sea region of Turkey. My ethnographic fieldwork showed that antiquity looters indeed cared more about the possibility of being crushed by spiritual creatures than of being caught by law enforcement. Spiritual creatures, namely jinn, are the most unpredictable threats imagined by illicit antiquity looters. They force looters to perform rituals to mitigate the perceived danger, including temporary or permanent loss of sanity, loss of limb, or loss of life. The paper concludes that looters’ avoidance rituals play a functional role rather than a rational one, and they are performed to show that looters are willing to get along with a spiritual environment beyond their control.

The Role of the Medial Prefrontal Cortex in Spatial Margin of Safety Calculations.

Naturalistic observations show that animals pre-empt danger by moving to locations that increase their success in avoiding future threats. To test this in humans, we created a spatial margin of safety (MOS) decision task that quantifies pre-emptive avoidance by measuring the distance subjects place themselves to safety when facing different threats whose attack locations vary in predictability. Behavioral results show that human participants place themselves closer to safe locations when facing threats that attack in spatial locations with more outliers. Using both univariate and multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) on fMRI data collected during a 2 h session on participants of both sexes, we demonstrate a dissociable role for the vmPFC in MOS-related decision-making. MVPA results revealed that the posterior vmPFC encoded for more unpredictable threats with univariate analyses showing a functional coupling with the amygdala and hippocampus. Conversely, the anterior vmPFC was more active for the more predictable attacks and showed coupling with the striatum. Our findings converge in showing that during pre-emptive danger, the anterior vmPFC may provide a safety signal, possibly via foreseeable outcomes, while the posterior vmPFC drives unpredictable danger signals.

A Novel Animal Behavioral Model For Assessing Arousal and Anxiety States: Implications for Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder

Background: Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a highly prevalent disorder with widespread impact on health co-morbidities, including cardiovascular disease (CVD). There is a pressing need to understand its underlying mechanisms. This study builds upon our previous published clinical and pre-clinical findings assessing cardiovascular and autonomic responses to stress. Using a recently developed behavioral model and lab-developed software for integrated behavioral and cardio-autonomic analysis, we sought to assess the impact of chronic unpredictable threat reminders on arousal and anxiety behavior as well as cardiovascular and autonomic function in pair-housed mice. Methods: Male and female C57bl/6J mice underwent Pavlovian auditory fear conditioning (n=10-16/group) and were returned to the home cage, equipped with speaker and top-down camera with infrared capabilities. Using a customized software to remotely deliver the conditioned stimulus (CS), pair-housed mice received 6 tones (30sec. 6kHz) throughout the light-dark (LD) cycle over a 24hr period (3 light, 3 dark), repeated for 14 days. The first CS during each LD cycle was recorded and freezing behavior was manually scored. Videos were used to train DeepLabCutTM (DLC) for automated behavioral analysis. On day 15, to evaluate whether evoked freezing is context-dependent, mice were placed into a novel context and CS-dependent freezing was measured. Mice then underwent elevated plus maze (EPM), uncued startle reactivity testing, and fear-potentiated startle (FPS) to assess locomotor, anxiety, and hyperarousal and heightened vigilant behaviors. Results: Following 14 days of chronic unpredictable conditioned threat reminders, fear-conditioned male and female mice exhibited strong CS-evoked freezing in the home cage. Circadian evaluation revealed enhanced freezing in the light versus the dark phase ( males, p<0.01; females, p<0.01). DLC analysis successfully and accurately quantified freezing of group-housed mice. Over 14 days, CS-dependent freezing declined, though this was context-dependent as freezing was significantly higher in a novel context on day 15 ( males, p<0.01; females, p=0.02). While chronic threat reminders did not affect behavior in the EPM, males, but not females, displayed hyperarousal in both uncued (startle to 120dB, males, p<0.01, females, p=0.62) and cued (FPS, males, p=0.04, females, p=0.60) startle testing, though neither males nor females had increased background anxiety during FPS ( males, p=0.77, females, p=0.77). Conclusions: Here we demonstrate, using lab-developed software, environment- and circadian-dependent conditioned freezing in the home cage of group-housed mice. These results further demonstrate that the delivery of chronic intermittent unpredictable conditioned threat reminders leads to an enhanced startle phenotype, that may be sex-dependent. Future studies are needed to assess direct measures of autonomic function in this model, which could provide novel insights into and potentially revealing new therapeutic and preventive strategies for mitigating PTSD-related autonomic dysfunction. (CDMRP) PR210574. This is the full abstract presented at the American Physiology Summit 2024 meeting and is only available in HTML format. There are no additional versions or additional content available for this abstract. Physiology was not involved in the peer review process.

Interleaved TMS/fMRI shows that threat decreases dlPFC-mediated top-down regulation of emotion processing

The dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC) is thought to be a key site in the brain’s cognitive control network, supporting cognitive processes like attention and working memory [1–7]. There is also evidence that the dlPFC is engaged during anxiety regulation tasks, suggesting that anxiety regulation may be mediated in part by dlPFC activity [8–15]. However, the degree to which these two domains of processing overlap is unclear. Therefore, in the current study, we tested the hypothesis that the dlPFC regulates brain regions critical for the expression of anxiety. To do so, we used interleaved TMS/fMRI to record TMS-evoked BOLD responses during periods of threat compared to periods of safety. We hypothesized that TMS pulses would reduce activity in anxiety expression regions during threat. Forty-four healthy controls (no current or history of psychiatric disorders) were recruited to take part in a broader study. Participants completed the neutral, predictable, and unpredictable (NPU) threat task while receiving TMS pulses to either the right dlPFC or a control region. A whole brain analysis identified regions showing significant BOLD responses evoked by dlPFC stimulation. We then extracted these responses and compared those evoked during safe blocks to those evoked during unpredictable threat. We found that responses in the left insula (LI), right sensory/motor cortex (RSM), and a region encompassing the bilateral SMA regions (BSMA) showed significantly different responses during the safe blocks compare to the threat. During the safe periods, these regions showed significant BOLD deactivations. These deactivations were reduced during the threat blocks. Overall, these findings are largely consistent with the hypothesis that the dlPFC plays a role in the top-down control of emotion and suggest that dlPFC activity reduces downstream activity in emotional expression regions, but that this effect is reduced under threat.

Current status, biology, threats and conservation priorities of the vulnerable Mediterranean monk seal

The Mediterranean monk seal Monachus monachus is one of the most endangered marine mammals on Earth. The species has made a notable recovery during the past 10 yr and is now considered Vulnerable by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. Its global population comprises 3 subpopulations: 2 in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean and one in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Global estimated abundance is 815-997 individuals, including 443-599 mature individuals; annual pup production averages 170.5. Over the past decade, increased research efforts have shed new light on various aspects of the species’ biology and life history, including habitat and habitat use, vital rates, communication and genetics. The main threats to the species are (1) terrestrial and marine habitat loss and degradation that has or is resulting in the occupation of unsuitable habitat and limited prey availability, (2) negative interactions with fisheries that result in accidental entanglement or deliberate killings in response to damages to catches and/or fishing gear, (3) unpredictable threats, including cave collapses and mass mortality events and (4) pollution. Priority conservation actions for the species include (1) strengthening the legal framework for the protection of the terrestrial and marine habitat of the species, (2) effective protection of the species and its terrestrial and marine habitat, (3) scientific population and habitat monitoring, (4) rescue and rehabilitation of injured, orphaned and sick pups to increase neonatal survival rates, (5) public awareness and education, (6) monitoring and mitigating negative seal-fishery interactions and (7) expansion of the species’ current geographic range in the Atlantic Ocean.

Unpredictable threat increases early event-related potential amplitudes and cardiac acceleration: A brain-heart coupling study.

In the face of unpredictable threat, rapid processing of external events and behavioral mobilization through early psychophysiological responses are crucial for survival. While unpredictable threat generally enhances early processing, it would seem adaptive to particularly increase sensitivity for unexpected events as they may signal danger. To examine this possibility, n = 77 participants performed an auditory oddball paradigm and received unpredictable shocks in threat but not in safe contexts while a stream of frequent (standard) and infrequent (deviant) tones was presented. We assessed event-related potentials (ERP), heart period (HP), and time-lagged within-subject correlations of single-trial EEG and HP (cardio-EEG covariance tracing, CECT) time-locked to the tones. N1 and P2 ERP amplitudes were generally enhanced under threat. The P3 amplitude was enhanced to deviants versus standards and this effect was reduced in the threat condition. Regarding HP, both threat versus safe and unexpected versus expected tones led to stronger cardiac acceleration, suggesting separate effects of threat and stimulus expectancy on HP. Finally, CECTs revealed two correlation clusters, indicating that single-trial EEG magnitudes in the N1/P2 and P3 time-windows predicted subsequent cardiac acceleration. The current results show that an unpredictable threat context enhances N1 and P2 amplitudes and cardiac acceleration to benign auditory stimuli. They further suggest separable cortical correlates of different effects on cardiac activity: an early N1/P2 correlate associated with threat-effects on HP and a later P3 correlate associated with expectedness-effects. Finally, the results indicate that unpredictable threat attenuates rather than enhances the processing of unexpected benign events during the P3 latency.

Smoke on the horizon: leveling up citizen and social science to motivate health protective responses during wildfires

Climate change factors and expanded population growth in the Wildland Urban Interface (transition zone between human structures and undeveloped wildland) contribute to a projected increase in wildfire frequency and smoke exposure. As an unregulated source of air pollution, reducing smoke exposure represents a difficult challenge for health risk communicators. The target audience is broad with unpredictable health impacts due to spatial and temporal variability in exposure. Beyond providing information, agencies face challenges reaching affected populations, motivating behavior change, and overcoming barriers between intentions and actions (recommended health protection). The Smoke Sense citizen science project developed a smartphone app to provide an engagement, learning, and information-sharing platform. Here we draw upon previous trends in behavioral patterns and propose a synergistic approach of citizen and behavioral science that can be applied to increase understanding of health risk and motivate new habits to reduce exposure among impacted individuals. Presentation of the approach proceeds as follows: (1) we identify several core factors that contribute to an intention-action gap, (2) identify applicable social and behavioral science principles that can bridge the gap, (3) propose explicit examples focused on theoretical principles, (4) describe small-scale user preliminary feedback and examples for monitoring and evaluating impact, and (5) provide a look to the future for collaborative citizen engagement. Current health risk communication strategies often lack consideration of behavioral factors that may enhance motivation and encourage behavior change. The proposed approach aims to leverage the strengths of citizen and social science and seeks to encourage a focused ‘digital community’ to implement new habits in the face of unpredictable and dynamic environmental threats.

Circadian immunity from bench to bedside: a practical guide.

The immune system is built to counteract unpredictable threats, yet it relies on predictable cycles of activity to function properly. Daily rhythms in immune function are an expanding area of study, and many originate from a genetically based timekeeping mechanism known as the circadian clock. The challenge is how to harness these biological rhythms to improve medical interventions. Here, we review recent literature documenting how circadian clocks organize fundamental innate and adaptive immune activities, the immunologic consequences of circadian rhythm and sleep disruption, and persisting knowledge gaps in the field. We then consider the evidence linking circadian rhythms to vaccination, an important clinical realization of immune function. Finally, we discuss practical steps to translate circadian immunity to the patient's bedside.

Sleep quality impacts the link between reactivity to uncertain threat and anxiety and alcohol use in youth.

Individual differences in reactivity to unpredictable threat (U-threat) have repeatedly been linked to symptoms of anxiety and drinking behavior. An emerging theory is that individuals who are hyper-reactive to U-threat experience chronic anticipatory anxiety, hyperarousal, and are vulnerable to excessive alcohol use via negative reinforcement processes. Notably, anxiety and alcohol use commonly relate to disruptions in sleep behavior and recent findings suggest that sleep quality may impact the link between reactivity to U-threat and psychiatric symptoms and behaviors. The aim of the current study was to examine the unique and interactive effects of reactivity to U-threat and sleep quality on anxiety symptoms and drinking behavior in a cohort of youth, ages 16-19 years. Participants (N = 112) completed a well-validated threat-of-shock task designed to probe individual differences in reactivity to U-threat and predictable threat (P-threat). Startle eyeblink potentiation was recorded during the task as an index of aversive reactivity. Participants also completed well-validated self-report measures of anxiety and depression symptoms, lifetime alcohol use, and current sleep quality. Results revealed significant startle reactivity to U-threat by sleep quality interactions on anxiety symptoms and lifetime drinking behavior. At high levels of sleep disturbance (only), greater reactivity to U-threat was associated with greater anxiety symptoms and total number of lifetime alcoholic beverages. These results suggest that sensitivity to uncertainty and chronic hyperarousal increases anxiety symptoms and alcohol use behavior, particularly in the context of poor sleep quality.

Assessing Public Opinion Regarding Appropriate Responses to Would-be Mass Shooters: Applying a Balanced Justice Framework.

The unpredictable and widespread threat of mass shootings make them a concern that could affect anyone, anywhere. As such, being able to interrupt the process of planning and conducting a mass shooting represents a matter of public safety. Willingness to report, particularly on loved ones or associates, ultimately requires the public to be supportive of the interventions they think will be applied. In this study, we analyzed responses to an online "opt-in" survey (n = 274) that measured public opinion regarding how punitive (or therapeutic) the public at large suppose the sanctions for planning (but not [yet] conducting) a mass shooting should be. Our findings suggest the public is supportive of a balanced justice approach for both juveniles and adults, with and without mental illness, who plan a mass shooting when given the option.

Impact of handgun ownership and biological sex on startle reactivity to predictable and unpredictable threats

Extant literature suggests that many individuals obtain firearms because they perceive the world as unsafe and believe that firearm ownership increases physical protection. Converging evidence suggests that firearm owners are vulnerable to uncertainty and experience chronic anticipatory anxiety in daily life; however, biological sex is thought to potentially moderate this association. Studies have yet to examine this hypothesis using objective markers of anticipatory anxiety. The present study therefore examined the impact of handgun ownership and biological sex on psychophysiological reactivity to predictable (P-) and unpredictable (U-) threat (N = 133). Male and female adult participants were classified into two groups: a) individuals who do not currently own any handguns (n = 52), and b) individuals who currently own one or more handguns (n = 81). Startle eyeblink potentiation was recorded as an index of aversive reactivity during a well-validated threat-of-shock paradigm designed to probe anticipatory anxiety (during U-threat) and fear (during P-threat). Results revealed no main effect of group on startle reactivity to P- or U-threat. Females displayed greater startle reactivity to threat (P- and U-) compared with males. The main effect was qualified by a significant group x biological sex interaction. Male handgun owners exhibited greater startle to U-threat, but not P-threat, relative to non-handgun owners. There was no effect of group on startle reactivity in females. Findings revealed that biological sex and threat type influenced threat reactivity. Male handgun owners displayed increased sensitivity to stressors that are uncertain, which may reflect an objective mechanism related to firearm ownership.

Navigating emotions in future thinking: a Polylogue approach

This paper critically examines how future thinking is positioned in the mindset of event professionals through the lens of provocative far future scenarios. In debating these far future scenarios within a polylogue (multiple voices) framework, we explore how dianoetic (discursive reasoning) approaches can facilitate long-term ´civilisational´ thinking and capture stakeholder reactions and emotions to future event environments. As such, our study contributes comparative qualitative insights into how current and future industry professionals respond to the contradictions and complexities of event futures. Our findings have implications for industry resilience and strategic thinking at a time when Covid-19 pandemic recovery has coincided with other global economic challenges and unpredictable threats such as climate change. Our findings highlight the importance of developing effective tools to overcome emotional barriers to thinking about the future. They also reveal the importance of engaging a broad stakeholder demographic and learning from other sectors to diversify conversations about the future.

A Co-Adaptation Method for Resilience Rebound in Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Swarms in Surveillance Missions

An unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) swarm is a fast-moving system where self-adaption is necessary when conducting a mission. The major causative factors of mission failures are inevitable disruptive events and uncertain threats. Given the unexpected disturbances of events and threats, it is important to study how a UAV swarm responds and enable the swarm to enhance resilience and alleviate negative influences. Cooperative adaptation must be established between the swarm’s structure and dynamics, such as communication links and UAV states. Thus, based on previous structural adaptation and dynamic adaptation models, we provide a co-adaptation model for UAV swarms that combines a swarm’s structural characteristics with its dynamic characteristics. The improved model can deal with malicious events and contribute to a rebound in the swarm’s performance. Based on the proposed co-adaptation model, an improved resilience metric revealing the discrepancy between the minimum performance and the standard performance is proposed. The results from our simulation experiments show that the surveillance performance of a UAV swarm bounces back to its initial state after disruptions happen in co-adaptation cases. This metric demonstrates that our model can contribute towards the swarm’s overall systemic resiliency by withstanding and resisting unpredictable threats and disruptions. The model and metric proposed in this article can help identify best practices in improving swarm resilience.

Determinants of Residential Satisfaction During the Initial Stage of the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of Xiangyang City, China

Objectives: To explore the impacts of psychological character strengths, self-efficacy, and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases on residential satisfaction at the initial stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in China.Methods: To achieve the study aim, we collected data from 281 observations from Xiangyang City, China, via an online survey. Data were analyzed using linear regression.Results: Character strengths and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases significantly impacted residential satisfaction. While self-efficacy did not directly impact residential satisfaction, it moderated the relationship between the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and residential satisfaction. The control variables of social trust and shared value positively impacted residential satisfaction, and their influence on residential satisfaction was higher than that of character strengths. The sociodemographic variables of marriage, age, educational attainment, and housing area per capita also impacted residential satisfaction significantly. However, strong ties and weak ties became insignificant variables due to social distancing strategies.Conclusion: The study findings offer insights for local governments to enhance residential satisfaction in the community to avoid social panic during unpredictable threats or future pandemics.