Unpredictable Events Research Articles

Response to food restriction, but not social information use, varies seasonally in captive cardueline finches.

For songbirds, temperate winters can impose severe conditions on songbirds that threaten survival, including shorter days and often lower temperature and food availability. One well-studied mechanism by which songbirds cope with such conditions is seasonal acclimatization of thermal metabolic traits, with strong evidence for both preparative and responsive changes in thermogenic capacity (i.e., the ability to generate heat) to low winter temperature. However, a bird's ability to cope with seasonal extremes or unpredictable events is likely dependent on a combination of behavioral and physiological traits that function to maintain allostatic balance. The ability to cope with reduced food availability may be an important component of organismal response to temperate winters in songbirds. Here we compare responses to experimentally reduced food availability at different times of year in captive red crossbills (Loxia curvirostra) and pine siskins (Spinus pinus) - two species that cope with variable food resources and live in cold places - to investigate seasonal changes in the organismal response to food availability. Further, red crossbills are known to use social information to improve response to reduced food availability, so we also examine whether use of social information in this context varies seasonally in this species. We find that pine siskins and red crossbills lose less body mass during time-restricted feedings in late winter compared to summer, and that red crossbills further benefit from social information gathered from observing other food restricted red crossbills in both seasons. Observed changes in body mass were only partially explained by seasonal differences in food intake. Our results demonstrate seasonal acclimation to food stress and social information use across seasons in a controlled captive environment and highlight the importance of considering diverse physiological systems (e.g., thermogenic, metabolic, digestive, etc) to understand organismal responses to environmental challenges.

Promoting Science Communication for the Purpose of Pandemic Preparedness and Response: An Assessment of the Relevance of Pre-COVID Pandemic “early warnings”

Abstract Given the abrupt global disruption caused by SARS-CoV-2, one might think that the COVID pandemic was an unpredictable event. But in the years leading up to the emergence of the COVID pandemic, several documents had already been warning of the increasing occurrences of new disease outbreaks with pandemic potential and lack of corresponding policies to promote pandemic preparedness and response. In this article, we call these documents “early warnings”. We argue that a survey of early warnings can help science communicators to promote the public understanding of evidence-based pandemic preparedness and response policies at local or international level. Our proposal differs from other approaches to pandemic preparedness and response in that it highlights the relevance of documents published before the COVID outbreak. We show that the early warnings did not become outdated after the COVID outbreak, but, rather, that they are even more pressing now.

State-of-the-Art Review on Botanical Hybrid Preparations in Phytomedicine and Phytotherapy Research: Background and Perspectives.

Despite some evidence supporting the synergy concept, the commonly known assumption that combinations of several herbs in one formulation can have better efficacy due to additive or synergistic effects has yet to be unambiguously and explicitly studied. The study aimed to reveal the molecular interactions in situ of host cells in response to botanical hybrid preparations (BHP) intervention and justify the benefits of implementing BHP in clinical practice. This prospective literature review provides the results of recent clinical and network pharmacology studies of BHP of Rhodiola rosea L. (Arctic root) with other plants, including Withania somnifera (L.) Dunal (ashwagandha), (Camellia sinensis (L.) Kuntze (green tea), Eleutherococcus senticosus (Rupr. and Maxim.) Maxim. (eleuthero), Schisandra chinensis (Turcz.) Baill. (schisandra), Leuzea carthamoides (Willd.) DC., caffeine, Cordyceps militaris L., Ginkgo biloba L.(ginkgo), Actaea racemosa L. (black cohosh), Crocus sativus L. (saffron), and L-carnosine. The most important finding from network pharmacology studies of BHP was the evidence supporting the synergistic interaction of BHP ingredients, revealing unexpected new pharmacological activities unique and specific to the new BHP. Some studies show the superior efficacy of BHP compared to mono-drugs. At the same time, some a priori-designed combinations can fail, presumably due to antagonistic interactions and crosstalk between molecular targets within the molecular networks involved in the cellular and overall response of organisms to the intervention. Network pharmacology studies help predict the results of studies aimed at discovering new indications and unpredicted adverse events.

Unravelling Resilience in Homestead Agroforestry Practice: A Review

The unprecedented climate changes are impacting agrarian livelihoods worldwide. Since lives heavily depend on agriculture, alternative farming mechanisms should be promoted to counter the effects. Homestead agriculture has a long tradition of compensating for the vagaries of weather and offering subsistence to the growers, at the same time conserving the ecosystem. The resilience of the practice is reviewed in this article with a focus on agroforestry’s unique characteristics, high biodiversity and multifaceted benefits as a land use system. A better understanding of the resilience potential of the homesteads to varying environments is important to integrate the system into the agricultural production scenario of nations, thereby bridging the unpredictable events of climate change. The best illustration of an effective indigenous resilience strategy is the tenacious persistence of homestead farming across millions of hectares.

Large-Scale Re-Implantation Efforts for Posidonia oceanica Restoration in the Ligurian Sea: Progress and Challenges

The Ligurian Sea (NW Mediterranean) has been a focal point for numerous interventions aimed at restoring Posidonia oceanica meadows. The success of pioneer restoration actions in France during the 1970s stimulated similar initiatives across the Mediterranean Sea. Early attempts in the Ligurian Sea were implemented in 1993 and 1996 on limited seabed areas (i.e., tens of square meters) at the two coastal sites of Sori and Rapallo (Liguria, NW Italy). No further initiatives have been reported for the Ligurian Sea until 2022. In that year, a large-scale restoration project, which uses biodegradable mats coupled with metal mesh, began in Liguria. Different levels of anthropogenic pressure and wave exposure characterize the three investigated locations: (1) Portofino, on the eastern Liguria and on the border with the Portofino Marine Protected Area; (2) Bergeggi in the central Liguria and within the Isola di Bergeggi Marine Protected Area; and (3) Sanremo in the western Liguria, without any formal protection. Despite recent setbacks caused by severe storms in late 2023, which particularly damaged the Portofino site, ongoing monitoring revealed promising survival rates. Most notably, the site in Bergeggi displayed a 90% survival rate in September 2023. Although challenges to restore P. oceanica beds persist, such as mitigating damages caused by unpredictable events, this extensive re-implantation initiative offers the opportunity to evaluate the effectiveness of new basin-scale restoration strategies. This approach marks an important step in the conservation of Posidonia oceanica habitat.

Deep reinforcement learning for adaptive flexible job shop scheduling: coping with variability and uncertainty

ABSTRACT The frequently evolving manufacturing system necessitates real-time large-scale data analytics, surpassing the capabilities of classical systems or human skills, necessitating knowledge development and self-adaptive control. Unpredictable real-time events in smart factories cause changes in the effectiveness of planned schedules or tasks; even slight interruptions can accumulate to make the preplanned schedule unoptimized, if not impossible. To meet the required production efficiency, typical dynamic scenarios on the shop floor, such as failures, random job arrivals, and machine setup, must be addressed quickly. Hence, this study proposes a novel Triple Deep Q Network (TDQN) approach for learning high-quality dispatching rules for addressing the Flexible Job Shop Scheduling Problem (FJSSP) in uncertainty. For the dispatching rule-based FJSSP, the Markov Decision Process (MDP) to choose a suitable operation-machine (O-M) pair is formulated to allow operation selection and resource assignment resolutions to be made simultaneously. The performance of the TDQN method is investigated against the Double Deep Q Network (DDQN) and Deep Q Network (DQN) approach and found to be more stable. Moreover, among the 29 different shopfloor configuration settings, TDQN performed better in 62.07% of the overall instances, while DDQN and DQN performed better in only 31.03% and 6.9% of instances, respectively.

Aspects Regarding of Passive Filters Sustainability for Non-Linear Single-Phase Consumers

The efficient use of electrical energy (an important component of sustainability) has become increasingly important for electrical consumers (industrial and non-industrial) as we face the challenges of climate change and the need to protect the environment. This theme is essential for guaranteeing a secure and sustainable future for both present and future generations. The power quality and the efficiency of electrical energy are connected to each other. Some power quality problems are caused by natural and unpredictable events, but many disturbances affecting power quality are caused by suppliers and consumers. One of the most important parameters in power engineering is the power factor, which indicates the degree of efficient use of electrical energy. Harmonics is the most important dynamic component of power quality, which affects the operation of electrical equipment and, at the same time, reduces the power factor. Harmonic sources in power systems are generally associated with nonlinear loads. To analyze the operating of passive filters (series L, shunt LC, T type LCL), two groups of experiments (relevant consumers were chosen for the industry as well as from the household sector) were carried out with single-phase nonlinear consumers: in the first group of experiments, a variable-frequency drive is used to supply a three-phase induction motor with variable load; in the second group of experiments, compact fluorescent lamps and LED lamps were used. Following the experiments, it was found that the difficulty of calibrating coils (to size a filter), especially the coils with a core, and the change in electrical properties over time for capacitors. For a certain type of consumer, the improvement of the current waveform depends on the type of filter used, the possibility of improving the power factor (to use electrical energy efficiently), and the role of the source impedance, which is particularly important to improve the efficiency of passive filters. Through the appropriate choice of the passive filter, a decrease in the deforming regime is obtained, with a slight decrease in the active power, and by increasing the power factor, a decrease in the losses of electrical energy from the electrical networks is obtained, with direct implications for the emission of greenhouse gases.

Perception and Knowledge of Solar Photovoltaic Technology in Climate Change Mitigation by Households in Embu County, Kenya

Climatic changes continue to impact our ecosystems and livelihoods globally. In the past few decades, have experienced an increase in unpredictable and extreme weather events, precipitating to the three planetary crises of biodiversity loss, climate change and pollution. Embu County in Kenya has not been spared from the resultant climate change impacts. Although globally solar energy is promoted as a sustainable source of energy, its uptake in Embu County remains low. The study sought to assess the uptake of solar photovoltaic technology by households in climate change mitigation and identify the determinants of solar photovoltaic technology uptake. Cross sectional data from a sample size of 395 households in Mbeere- north Sub County in Embu County was collected using data collection tools including questionnaires, interviews, and observations. Purposive and simple random sampling was employed to select the respondents for inclusion in the study. After data collection, qualitative and quantitative data analysis methods were employed to analyze the data including SPSS (statistical package for the social sciences). The results indicate an overall increasing temperature and overall decreasing rainfall in Embu County. Income demonstrated a greater influence compared to other factors in determining the decision to adopt solar appliances at p =0.397. A significant proportion of respondents (36.9%) reported having limited awareness of climate change and its impacts. Social and mass media were main sources of climate information. There was a positive significant correlation between respondents who displayed awareness of climate change and its impacts and the adoption of solar energy and awareness on solar energy adoption as a solution to climate change at p values of 0.348 and 0.140. The results assisted in assessing the uptake of solar photovoltaic in climate change mitigation in Embu County and identify the determinants driving households on the uptake of solar photovoltaic technology.

Impact of Corporate Social Responsibility on Operations of a Live-Streaming Supply Chain

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is widely noticed as an essential tool for business operation and sustainable development. Meanwhile, the fiercely competitive external environment and unpredictable events prompt enterprises’ cooperation to prevent supply chain collapse. We investigate the cooperative strategy in a live-streaming supply chain (LSC) consisting of a dominant brand owner, a retailer, and a live streamer, where the brand owner considers CSR by considering the welfare of stakeholders. We construct one non-cooperative and three cooperative Stackelberg game models to explore the impact of CSR on cooperative strategy and LSC operations. The results show the following. (1) When the brand owner considers CSR, LSC members and systems are more profitable in the four models than when the brand owner does not consider CSR. (2) When the flow effect is small, the brand owner tends to cooperate with the retailer; otherwise, the brand owner prefers to cooperate with the live streamer. (3) The grand coalition C (the brand owner cooperates with the retailer and live streamer) is the consistent strategy for the LSC system, consumers, and society. These findings help enterprises recognize the importance of CSR and collaboration, thus further providing reference opinions on engaging in CSR and how to achieve collaboration.

Rescheduling with New Orders Under Bounded Disruption

Rescheduling problems arise when unpredicted events occur, such as the arrival of new orders. These new jobs should be integrated in a proper way in the existing schedule of the so-called old jobs, with the aim of minimizing an objective function for the joint set of jobs. To avoid a major disruption of the original schedule, each old job is not allowed to deviate from its original completion time by more than a certain threshold. Filling a gap in the existing literature, we consider the minimization of the total weighted completion time. The resulting rescheduling problem is shown to be weakly NP-hard and several properties of the structure of an optimal schedule are derived. These can be used for the construction of an exact dynamic programming algorithm with pseudo-polynomial running time. A fully polynomial time approximation scheme is obtained from the dynamic program by three different scaling and reduction steps. Finally, for the minimization of the number of late jobs a strong NP-hardness result is derived. History: Accepted by Erwin Pesch, Area Editor for Heuristic Search & Approximation Algorithms. Funding: This work was partially supported by the Ministero dell’Istruzione, dell’Università e della Ricerca [Award TESUN-83486178370409 finanziamento dipartimenti di eccellenza CAP. 1694 TIT. 232 ART. 6]. U. Pferschy acknowledges support by the Field of Excellence COLIBRI at the University of Graz.

Orientation and contrast deviance examined: Contrast effects mimic deviant-related negativity yet neither produce the canonical neural correlate of prediction error.

The visual mismatch negativity (vMMN) is a negative-going event-related potential (ERP) component that is largest somewhere between 100 and 300 ms after the onset of an unpredictable visual event (i.e., a deviant) in an otherwise predictable sequence of visual events (i.e., standards). Many have argued that the vMMN allows us to monitor our ever-changing visual environment for deviants critical to our survival. Recently, however, it has become unclear whether unpredicted changes in low-level features of visual input, like orientation, can evoke the vMMN. I address this by testing isolated orientation changes, to confirm recent findings, and isolated contrast changes, to determine whether other low-level features of visual input do not evoke the vMMN in a traditional oddball paradigm. Eighteen participants saw sequences of rare, unanticipated, and different deviant stimuli, interspersed among frequent, anticipated, and identical standard stimuli. Stimuli were Gabor patches. Neither deviant produced a vMMN. Therefore, changes in low-level visual properties of well-controlled stimuli-a stimulus in which one property can be manipulated while all others remain unaffected-like Gabor patches do not yield a vMMN.

Analysis of Management Practices and Breeders' Perceptions of Climate Change's Impact to Enhance the Resilience of Sheep Production Systems: A Case Study in the Tunisian Semi-Arid Zone.

Global climate change inflicts unambiguous risks on agricultural systems and food security. Small ruminants are known for their ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions. This paper aims to characterize sheep production systems in a vulnerable agricultural zone and the breeders' perceptions of climate change to apprehend challenges that they are confronting, and formulate resilience actions. The data analysis is based on 94 semi-structured surveys of sheep farmers carried out in the Tunisian semi-arid region. The PCA analysis results revealed three main sheep production systems. The agro-pastoral rain-fed system (AGPRF) is dominant (55%), with large farms and common pastures integrating cereals and fodder. The agro-pastoral irrigated system (AGPI: 20%) is characterized by small-area and forage irrigation (1.8 ha) and a smaller number of ewes but a greater use of animal feed supplementation. The agro-sylvo-pastoral system (AGSP: 25%) is a system where grazing is based on common lands and using tree sub-products, while the agricultural area is exclusively used to cultivate cereal crops. Sheep breeders' climate perceptions are summarized as unpredictable climate events, a decrease in precipitation, and an increase in temperature. Resilience actions principally consist of reducing flocks' numbers, using alternative local feed, fodder, and water resources, and building more shelters and planting more trees in the grazing areas. Nevertheless, cost-effectiveness should be considered in such vulnerable zones to insure the sheep production systems' sustainability.

What impact did COVID-19 have on contractors working from home? The Malaysia main contractor’s perspectives

The COVID-19 pandemic is an unpredictable event that has had unexpected effects on many countries, including Malaysia. The Government of Malaysia implemented the Movement Control Order (MCO) to restrain the outbreak of the pandemic. As a result, MCO has had a huge impact on various industries in Malaysia, especially the construction industry. Therefore, time and cost become critical components in order to successfully deliver the project and are the factors most affecting by the COVID-19. This paper explores the impact of the main contractor’s awareness, perceptions, and readiness for the Covid-19 pandemic. Quota and snowball sampling methods were used. Total of 167 samples were collected and analyzed using SPSS software. This research presents the main contractor’s perception and readiness has significant correlation to the pandemic disruption in Malaysia while the main contractor’s awareness showing no correlation. The position level of main contractor’s traits shows no significant to the pandemic disruption. These results provide evidence that main contractor is significantly affecting by the pandemic disruptions, thus cultivating the main contractor’s traits in the construction industry is needed.

Employee engagement in voice at times of crisis: COVID-19 pandemic as an example

Purpose: During crises and unpredictable events, organizational leadership faces time constraints for making decisions. Decisions are, therefore, often centralized. However, such centralized decision-making processes frequently deprive the organizations of vital inputs coming from the employees, who are usually closer to the problems and the customers. Therefore, this paper aims how employees engage in voice during a crisis, such as the COVID-19 pandemic that forced various organizations to resort to remote work without prior planning. Methodology: To explore how employees engage in voice during a crisis, like the COVID-19 pandemic, the study relied on qualitative analysis and used three focus groups with 15 participants working at a German international organization operating in Egypt as a bilateral development partner with the Egyptian government. The responses were later subject to content analysis. Findings: Unexpectedly, the COVID-19 pandemic has forced the employees to work remotely. Due to the availability of certain antecedents, the employees engaged in a promotive voice that was primarily informal, expressed individually and collectively, directed to managers and peers, and frequent at the onset of the pandemic but diminishing later on. Originality: The study offers in-depth insights into how a crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic changes the nature of work, the different antecedents that encourage the employees to engage in voice in times of crisis, and the nature of this voice during the crisis.

Remaining useful life prediction method for Degradation–Shock dependence: Case of a subsea hydraulic control system

Predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) is crucial for ensuring reliable equipment operation. This study addresses the challenges of RUL prediction in modeling the effects of external shocks and internal degradation, with emphasis on the dependency relationship between the two factors. A novel hybrid method for RUL prediction is proposed. The proposed method combines degradation models and field data to realize RUL assessment under the influence of system degradation and external shocks. A dependency factor is introduced to effectively incorporate the influence of degradation stage and shock intensity on system failure. A comprehensive uncertainty analysis is performed, in consideration of random degradation, unpredictable shock events, and the dynamic evolution of degradation stages and performance degradation processes. Numerical simulations are conducted on a hydraulic control system to demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method. The robustness and reliability of the proposed approach in predicting the RUL of the hydraulic control system are demonstrated, with particular emphasis on the method's capability to handle the complexities of dependency modeling and uncertainty analysis. Results show that the proposed method can realize dependency modeling of the hydraulic control system, accurately predict its RUL, and analyze the vulnerability of its subsystems.

Can we predict adolescent cannabis use? A Bayesian semi-parametric approach to project future trends

Despite its decrease in many Western countries, cannabis remains the most used illicit substance among adolescents. This study aims to summarize cannabis consumption during the last two decades and project trends among 15-year-olds in the 2021–22 HBSC survey. A Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model was adopted to estimate the trend of cannabis consumption using data of about 287,000 adolescents from the 2001/2002 to the 2017/2018 HBSC wave and the 38 countries that met the inclusion criteria. Data show an overall decline in most countries for both boys and girls. However, in 22 countries of 38 cannabis use is expected to increase again in our projection. The discussion of these findings should take into account cultural, policy, social factors and unpredictable events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, that can significantly impact future trends leading to discrepancies between the projected and observed values. However, these discrepancies can provide insight into understanding the potential impact of preventive strategies and the underlying processes responsible for changes in cannabis use over time.

Social strategies to access land influence crop diversity in northwestern Morocco

Abstract Much evidence supports the ecological and agronomic benefits of diversity, of both crops and environments, for building resilience and sustainability in agroecosystems. Farmers' knowledge about crop diversity is well‐documented, but aside from studies on how farmers exchange seeds and knowledge through networks, the interactions of social factors and the diversity of crops and cultivated environments have been mainly overlooked. One factor receiving attention is farmers' access to land, but in only one of its dimensions, the security of access. Here we address the different strategies by which farmers gain access to land. How does the plurality of modes of access to land influence crop choices, and thereby crop diversity? How does this plurality influence the range of environments available to individual farmers for cultivating crop diversity? Analysing data from 51 interviews with farmers and 312 plots in agrosilvopastoral systems in northwestern Morocco, we described eight different modes of access. Each mode offers different opportunities and constraints concerning the kind of crops that can be grown on the plot. We found that an increase in the number of modes of access to land increases the crop diversity of farmers' holdings, regardless of the total area each farmer cultivates. Accessing additional plots contributed to both environmental heterogeneity and to crop diversity of farms. In striving to gain access to land and to grow diverse crops, farmers are motivated by their notion of what it means to be a ‘real farmer’, that is, the relation to their identity. Farmers mobilize not only their economic power but also their social relationships to gain access to plots of land. Their choices are also based on their relationships to tree crops such as olive, which are economic and cultural keystone species, as well as markers of land ownership and control. Multiple modes of access to land characterize many smallholder farming systems, which support a large fraction of the world's population. Recognizing diverse social practices of access to land that allow farmers to continue to mobilize multiple modes of access can increase resilience against unpredictable events and help maintain sustainable agroecosystems. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Telework as a dynamic capability of firms: A qualitative research and narratives

Unexpected and negative factors such as pandemics, crises, etc. have a profound effect on business environment and entail a paradigm shift in the classical concept of work schedule. The paper aims to explore the phenomenon of telework as a dynamic capability of firms to ensure business continuity in the face of all kinds of unpredictable events and delves into the factors behind telework applications that contribute to increasing the resilience of SMEs to chaotic business shifts. Dynamic capabilities theory constitutes the methodological basis of the study. For the purpose of the research, the qualitative method was used, which has a detailed and exploratory approach with inductive questions and enables a holistic picture of the phenomenon under investigation to be revealed. The multi-site case study design was preferred, and the data collected were analysed using content analysis. In July–August 2022, 13 semi-structured interviews were conducted with the owners, top and mid-level managers of SMEs operating in the service sector in Turkey. MAXQDA 2020 programme was used to analyse the data obtained. As a result of the research, the structure of the telework theme consisting of three dimensions (technological infrastructure, culture, and work attributes) and ten sub-dimensions (working order, trust, implementation history, business strategy, etc.) was discovered. For telework to be carried out healthily, firms should establish working order, work to be done, time spent by employees in front of the computer, etc., be more flexible and receptive to changes in work practices, create an appropriate culture and establish manager-employee trust.

Flowering of Bambusa vulgaris ʽVittata’ (Poaceae, Bambusoideae, Bambuseae) in Argentina

Flowering in woody bamboos remains an intriguing, infrequent and unpredictable event. Bambusa vulgaris ʽVittata’ is a woody bamboo species of Asian origin, which is widely cultivated in Argentina and the world due to its various applications. However, there are no records of the flowering of this entity in its place of origin or in cultivation. The goal of the present work is to report the flowering of a B. vulgaris ʽVittata’ specimen, cultivated in Buenos Aires, providing information and images of the event and an illustration of its reproductive structures. New reproductive characters have been found to differentiate the taxon, which are included in a dicotomic key.

Seizure prediction based on improved vision transformer model for EEG channel optimization

Epileptic seizures are unpredictable events caused by abnormal discharges of a patient’s brain cells. Extensive research has been conducted to develop seizure prediction algorithms based on long-term continuous electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. This paper describes a patient-specific seizure prediction method that can serve as a basis for the design of lightweight, wearable and effective seizure-prediction devices. We aim to achieve two objectives using this method. The first aim is to extract robust feature representations from multichannel EEG signals, and the second aim is to reduce the number of channels used for prediction by selecting an optimal set of channels from multichannel EEG signals while ensuring good prediction performance. We design a seizure-prediction algorithm based on a vision transformer (ViT) model. The algorithm selects channels that play a key role in seizure prediction from 22 channels of EEG signals. First, we perform a time-frequency analysis of processed time-series signals to obtain EEG spectrograms. We then segment the spectrograms of multiple channels into many non-overlapping patches of the same size, which are input into the channel selection layer of the proposed model, named Sel-JPM-ViT, enabling it to select channels. Application of the Sel-JPM-ViT model to the Boston Children’s Hospital–Massachusetts Institute of Technology scalp EEG dataset yields results using only three to six channels of EEG signals that are slightly better that the results obtained using 22 channels of EEG signals. Overall, the Sel-JPM-ViT model exhibits an average classification accuracy of 93.65%, an average sensitivity of 94.70% and an average specificity of 92.78%.