Unpredictable Disasters Research Articles

Determination of Mountain Equivalent Rainstorm (MER) in Qinba Maintain Area Based on TRMM

The study of extreme precipitation is a significant aspect for investigating rainstorms, flash floods, and unpredictable disasters. Qinba mountain, Shaanxi province, China, is sensitive to extreme climate and rainstorm events. It is crucial to investigate the feature of precipitation extremes in this region with satellite data. According to this, the paper using the 1Day extreme precipitation datasets of TRMM and rain-gauge to calculate the mountain rainstorm, then the statistical metrics (CC, MBE, RMSE) was used in validation as the performance measure. The 1Day, 3Day, 5Day, and 7Day extreme precipitation was identified by the 95<sup>th</sup> percentile method. Thus to determine the Mountain Equivalent Rainstorm (MER). As the results, (1) Based on the comparison, the TRMM satellite product can capture the extreme precipitation mostly at the station below 433m (R<sup>2 </sup>>0.5) for 5Day datasets, while 7Day datasets reveal contrast patterns. (2) By applying the MER concept, the TRMM-based and gauge-based ratio revealed a similar pattern of mountain rainstorms at higher elevations and slightly different in the middle region. The mountain rainstorm amount was double the extreme rainfall at a higher elevation. Therefore, the defined extreme precipitation characteristics can assist the disaster risk reduction and mitigation strategy in the Qinba mountain of Shaanxi Province, China, and also provide a reference for improving the satellite algorithm in extreme precipitation measurement.

Analysis Effect of Parameters of Genetic Algorithm on a Model for Optimization Design of Sustainable Supply Chain Network Under Disruption Risks

Abstract Over the last decade, our world exposed to many types of unpredictable disasters (recently Coronavirus). These disasters have clearly shown the uncertainty and vulnerability of supply chain systems. Also, it confirmed that adopting Just-in-Time (JIT) strategy to reduce the logistic chain cost may lead to inbuilt complexity and risks. Efficient tools are therefore needed to make complexity optimized supply chain decisions. Evolutionary algorithms, including genetic algorithms (GA), have proven effective in identifying optimal solutions that address the trade-offs between total supply chain cost and carbon emissions regulatory policy represented by carbon tax charges. These solutions pertain to the design challenges of supply networks exposed to potential disruption risks. However, GA have a set of parameters must be chosen for effective and robust performance of the algorithms. This paper aims to set the most suitable values of these parameters that used via GA – ased optimization cost and risk reduction model in firms using a JIT as a delivery system. The model has been conceptualized for addressing the design complexities of the supply chain, referred to as SCRRJITS (Simultaneous Cost and Risk Reduction in a Just-in-Time System). A complete analysis of the different parameters and operators of the algorithm is carried out using design of experiments approach. The algorithm performance measure used in this study is convergence of solutions. The results show the extent to which the quality of solution can be changed depending on selection of these parameters.

The role of digital platforms in the economic crisis management

The need for urgent mitigation of the consequences of dramatic emergency situations has been predominating in recent years. In response to unpredictable disasters organizations all over the world started to apply a number of breakthrough technologies by means of confusing response strategies. Publications lack appropriate information on the most effective methods of recovering from the economic crisis, so the decisions are chosen among new breakthrough technologies in the digital platforms systems. To complete the gap in the literature the article applies to the studying of the theory of economic crisis. The purpose of the article is to create a theoretical model based on the most effective breakthrough innovations in the digital platforms mechanisms through the lens of the analysis of the adaptive management model.

Successful Post-Pandemic Cities

The novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak was a significant test of global urban governance capacity and a major rethink for cities to recognize their developmental deficiencies and plan for the future. After successfully combating the pandemic, cities are entering the post-outbreak era, which is both an opportunity and a challenge for development. In the face of increasing urban population and unpredictable disasters, planning and building resilient cities has become an inevitable choice. Therefore, this paper analyses the impact of the pandemic on the city, focuses on how to build a resilient city, puts forward suggestions from four aspects: land use, community building, environmental design, and transport development, and discusses and analyses other challenges facing the city.

Designing Cost-Effective and Reliable Submarine Communications Cable Path: Lessons From the Tonga Volcano Disaster

Submarine communications cables are essential infrastructure in modern society, but they are also vulnerable to unpredictable disasters, and their breakage may have dire social and economic consequences. Motivated by the lessons from the Tonga volcano eruption in 2022, we incorporate the volcano risk factor with the other considerations (including earthquakes, fishing, anchoring, terrain slope, and marine protected areas) that have been considered in previous publications, and explain the Fast Marching Method-based path planning of submarine cables. To consider the effect of volcanos, we also introduce constraints based on keeping safety distances (zero, short or long) from each volcano, by setting infinite risk value in areas to be avoided. We then provide the approximate Pareto front of the cost and risk of submarine cable paths for different stakeholders' reference. We demonstrate that significant cost savings and reduced cable faults could have been achieved for the Tonga-Fiji cable system using our method, keeping in mind that our conclusions are based only on publicly available data.

The Lack of Government Capacity and Rising Community Networks in Building Resilience During the Covid-19 Pandemic: An Insight from Pekalongan City, Indonesia

The Covid-19 pandemic has had a wide impact on various sectors of people’s lives, including socio-economic disruption. In Indonesia, at both local and national government levels, the social protection programs have become a key tool for policymakers to overcome the negative impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic crisis. This study aims to examine how the local authorities and community networks called P2SE (Pekalongan Peduli Sosial Ekonomi or Pekalongan Cares Socio-Economy) in Pekalongan city respond to the socio-economic crisis during the Covid-19 pandemic in order to increase the resilience of urban poor and vulnerable group as well as reducing social inequalities. One way of doing this is through integrated social protection provision involving various communities from local authority, academicians, civil society, businessman and micro small and medium enterprises. This article argues that the community networks-based integrated social protection provision model is an alternative strategy to help state authority in addressing poverty and socio-economic inequality in inclusive and participatory ways. In this way, some issues of inequality and political interests in the process of resource distribution related to the provision of social protection can be minimized. Therefore, this model of providing social protection based on integrated community networks can be used as an alternative strategy to reduce inequality and build the resilience of urban poor and other vulnerable groups when facing crisis due to unpredictable disasters such as the Covid-19.

Location-Based Game for Thought-Provoking Evacuation Training

Participation in evacuation training can aid survival in the event of an unpredictable disaster, such as an earthquake. However, conventional evacuation training is not well designed for provoking critical thinking in participants regarding the processes involved in a successful evacuation. To realize thought-provoking evacuation training, we developed a location-based game that presents digital materials that express disaster situations corresponding to locations or times preset in a scenario and providing scenario-based multi-ending as the game element. The developed game motivates participants to take decisions by providing high situational and audiovisual realism. In addition, the game encourages the participants to think objectively about the evacuation process by working together with a reflection-support system. We practiced thought-provoking evacuation training with fifth-grade students, focusing on tsunami evacuation and lifesaving-related moral dilemmas. In this practice, we observed that the participants took decisions as if they were dealing with actual disaster situations and objectively thought about the evacuation process by reflecting on their decisions. Meanwhile, we found that lifesaving-related moral dilemmas are difficult to address in evacuation training.

Quality Assurance Practices in the Time of COVID 19: What Works in Tertiary Institutions in Tanzania

Despite natural disasters like COVID-19, tertiary institutions around the world should be more responsive and use a proactive approach to quality assurance. The COVID-19 eruption halted the operation of normal classrooms. Teaching was done from home, although many teachers were not aware of online facilitation. The current study examined the practice of quality assurance in Tanzanian tertiary institutions following COVID-19 eruption from 2020 to 2021. To achieve this, the study adopted a mixed-methods approach with the help of a sequential explanatory research design. The study involved 113 respondents, obtained randomly from four tertiary institutions. The study adopted an automated questionnaire and semistructured interviews for collecting data from the respondents. The two methods of data collection enabled the gathering of voluminous information with little bias. The data were analysed descriptively and by using content analysis for qualitative data. Results from this study revealed that both external and internal mechanisms were adapted to varying degrees in the practice of quality assurance amid COVID19. They also reveal that some tertiary institutions have adopted a blended online mode of teaching and learning. However, it was not successfully implemented because most tertiary institutions lacked the necessary resources and personnel to use digitalisation in teaching and learning. According to the study, digitalisation quality assurance systems should be improved further to overcome the current situation and the future effects of unpredictable disasters. Furthermore, higher education institutions must improve open and remote e-communication between tutors and students.

Seismic response of Special Moment Resisting Frames constructed on plain and sloping ground

Earthquakes are one of the most extinctive natural unpredictable disaster. The major reason of most of the earthquakes are the movement of Tectonic plates and excitation in the earth’s crust. It is observed that many conventional buildings have constructed without considering seismic provisions given by Indian standard codes to escape the disastrous effect of earthquakes which results into the collapse and disintegration of buildings. Therefore, the concept of earthquake resistant building design came into consideration and this is the most crucial aspect when a structure is to be designed for sloping terrain or for the hilly area. This research is carried out to examine the response of structures during the ground oscillations in terms of storey drift, base shear and storey displacement. For research work, 8storey, 12 storey and 16 storey frames are considered which are constructed on plain ground and sloping ground and 20°, 30°and 45° slopes and zone V are considered. All the frames are designed and analyzed using pushover analysis in finite element based software ETABS v-19. Response reduction factor is also calculated for several frames and compared the calculated values with the values given in IS 1893:2016(part- I).

Comparative study of seismic analysis and design of residential structure using Indian and British standards

Earthquake is a natural and unpredictable disaster that damages life and the economy drastically. In this study, seismic analysis and design of a (G + 3) residential structure were performed through ETABS. The whole analysis was performed for different parameters such as story-drift, displacement shear force, and base shear were studied through Indian standard (IS 1893) and British standard (Eurocode 8). The findings of this study revealed that the value of base shear calculated through Eurocode 8 is higher than the IS 1893 due to the lesser value of the response reduction factor in Eurocode 8. However, the Y-direction base shear is greater than the X-direction. Furthermore, a pattern is seen that as the number of storeys rises, the displacement difference between the standards also rises, leading to the conclusion that the Indian code offers greater displacement capacity for seismic loading than the Euro code without compromising strength and stiffness.

SOSIALISASI APE (ALAT PERAGA EDUKATIF) UNTUK MENINGKATKAN KESIAPSIAGAAN BENCANA DI SDN 05 BADES, KECAMATAN PASIRIAN, KABUPATEN LUMAJANG

Bades Village, Pasirian District, Lumajang Regency is a village whose area is located between two active mountains, namely Mount Semeru and Mount Lamongan and a coastline that stretches from west to east so that there is the potential for extreme waves and tsunamis. The geographical location of Bades Village causes the potential for several natural disaster threats such as tsunamis, landslides, and earthquakes. Therefore, disaster mitigation education is needed from an early age, especially for elementary school students. Disaster mitigation education can be done in several ways, one of which is using Educational Props (APE). The purpose of this devotion is to raise awareness and respond to the arrival of unpredictable disasters. So that these students are expected to have knowledge of pre-disaster mitigation and in times of disaster and can share their knowledge with the community. In addition, the method used in this socialization activity gives a new color in its delivery to elementary school students. The method used is the observation method, then held a socialization with the students of SDN 05 Bades, Kecamtan Pasirian, Lumajang Regency. The subjects of socialization were 40 elementary school students in grades 4 –6. The result of this service and research is an increase in knowledge of mitigating natural disasters that occur. Students are enthusiastic and interested in this socialization so that they are able to apply the material that has been given when the disaster comes.

Alat Pendeteksi Kebakaran Dini Berbasis Internet Of Things (IoT) Menggunakan NodeMCU Dan Telegram

One of the unpredictable disasters is fire. Fires often occur in densely populated areas and are triggered by a variety of factors, for example an electric short circuit. Usually a fire disaster is only realized when the fire has grown and has spread to all places. Based on these problems, a solution is needed to prevent the occurrence of fire disasters, namely by designing an Early Fire Detection Tool Based On Internet of Things (IoT) Using NodeMCU And Telegram. The microcontroller used in this study is NodeMCU which is equipped with WiFi ESP8266. This tool uses two fire sensors, namely the LM393 type fire sensor and the KY-026 type fire sensor, besides that this tool also uses buzzer which is used to provide warnings in the form of sound and Light Emitting Diode which are used as a sign that the microcontroller is connected to Telegram. This study produces a device that can send notifications in the form of messages to the user's telegram if the two fire sensors detect the presence of fire in which the two fire sensors can detect the source of the fire up to a distance of 50 cm. This tool can make it easier for users to monitor the condition of the room in real - time by sending messages through the telegram application and this tool will reply to the message automatically according to the conditions of the two fire sensors.

Hemodialysis Record Sharing: Solution for Work Burden Reduction and Disaster Preparedness.

BackgroundAfter the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, backup systems for clinical information were launched in Japan. The system in Miyagi Prefecture called the Miyagi Medical and Welfare Information Network (MMWIN) is used as a health information exchange network to share clinical information among various medical facilities for patients who have opted in. Hospitals and clinics specializing in chronic renal failure require patients’ data and records during hemodialysis to facilitate communication in daily clinical activity and preparedness for disasters.ObjectiveThis study aimed to facilitate the sharing of clinical data of patients undergoing hemodialysis among different hemodialysis facilities.MethodsWe introduced a document-sharing system to make hemodialysis reports available on the MMWIN. We also recruited hospitals and clinics to share the hemodialysis reports of their patients and promoted the development of a network between emergency and dialysis clinics.ResultsIn addition to basic patient information as well as information on diagnosis, prescription, laboratory data, hospitalization, allergy, and image data from different facilities, specific information about hemodialysis is available, as well as a backup of indispensable information in preparation for disasters. As of June 1, 2021, 12 clinics and 10 hospitals of 68 dialysis facilities in Miyagi participated in the MMWIN. The number of patients who underwent hemodialysis in Miyagi increased by more than 40%.ConclusionsOur backup system successfully developed a network of hemodialysis facilities. We have accumulated data that are beneficial to prevent the fragmentation of patient information and would be helpful in transferring patients efficiently during unpredictable disasters.

News coverage and mass shootings in the US

We study the potential effect of mass-shooting-related television news in the US on subsequent mass shootings from 2006–2017. To circumvent endogeneity, our identification strategy relies on unpredictable disasters in countries home to substantial numbers of US emigrants crowding out shooting news. Instrumental variable and reduced form regressions consistently suggest a positive and statistically significant effect. This result remains consistent throughout a battery of robustness checks. In terms of magnitude, a one standard deviation increase in shooting news raises mass shootings by approximately 73% of a standard deviation. We then explore potential mechanisms, broadly delineating (i) the ideation of murder, (ii) fame seeking, and (iii) behavioral contagion. The number of murders in general remains orthogonal to shooting news, and mass shootings are not more likely on days with predictable news pressure (e.g., during the Olympics or the Super Bowl). However, mass shootings are more likely after anniversaries of the most deadly historical mass shootings. Taken together, these results lend support to a behavioral contagion mechanism following the public salience of mass shootings.

Modelling and analysis of ventilated disc Brakes using Creo and FEA software

Abstract: An important part of a car's safety system is the brakes. Brakes are easily worn, leading to unpredictable disasters. To avoid this, ventilated disc brakes are used, which helps the brakes to work well in stressful conditions and high temperatures. The materials used play an important role in determining performance. The main objective of this research work is to analyze the current design and conduct a suitable brake rotor analysis to improve its performance. Existing brake disc designs are modeled in Creo and analyzed with software. The material grades used in this study were performed on stainless steel, grey cast iron, structural steel, and titanium alloy brake discs using the same brake disc design to determine the best grade. Keywords: ventilated disc brake, creo, thermal analysis, static analysis.

The economic impact of disasters in Pacific island countries: estimation and application to economic planning

ABSTRACT Pacific island countries are highly vulnerable to destructive and unpredictable disasters. This paper identifies the intensity of disasters for each country in the Pacific based on the distribution of economic damages and population affected by disasters, and estimates the impact of disasters on economic growth and international trade using a panel regression method. The results show that ‘severe’ disasters have a negative and significant impact on economic growth and lead to a deterioration of the trade balance. Going further, this paper proposes a simple and consistent approach to incorporate disaster risks for economic planning. Better incorporating the economic impact of disasters in the medium- and long-term economic planning would help policy-makers improve policy decisions and to be better prepared for disasters.

Disaster-Resilient Communities on Flood Plains and Their Agricultural Regeneration: A Case Study in Meinong Plain, Taiwan

Taiwan’s near-mountain alluvial plain is a high-risk area with frequent disasters, and residents have become more tolerant of the compound disasters that occur with overall environmental changes associated with the development of urbanization in recent years. This paper presents a case study of a near-mountainous alluvial plain in Southern Taiwan. The Hakka ethnic group is the main community in the study area and also the main research object. This case study illustrates the disaster resilience of the community to natural and artificial disasters. This study adopted two research approaches, namely historical geography and political economic geography, as well as community resilience theory. Research methods including case study, secondary literature analysis, fieldwork, and interviews were used. Through text analysis, it was found that (1) the community’s awareness of disaster avoidance was rooted in the experience of reclamation in the early 17th century; (2) communities have experienced artificial disasters caused by political and economic intervention, which have been transformed into disaster awareness and community resilience; (3) cumulative artificial disasters have a greater impact on communities than unpredictable natural disasters; and (4) the energy of community resilience and agricultural regeneration is based on the duality of disasters.

A Lesson / An Eye Opener

The pandemic of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has led to serious implications throughout the globe ranging from finance, education, social support to health. There is hardly any aspect left untouched by this fatality. It has also opened our eyes about unequal and unjust distribution of resources among the world where the deprived have seen the worse scenarios. The developed nations tried to cope this situation with their assets while the rest have either suffered or have emerged even stronger. The major burden was definitely on the health services delivery and provision, where the scares means from equipment to space and man power have all played their role. The pandemic has opened the eyes of health policy makers and service providers who were living in deception and have never been ready for certain contagion. We have come to know that the medical services are never enough to deal with similar situation. COVID-19 has taught us the skill of how to be prepared and fight in a worse situation but unfortunately, we have learned this after losing many precious lives. The changes in healthcare practices have also been modified. The infection control (IC) system which should have been a focus prior became a highlight after pandemic. The IC practices in hospitals (public and private sector) were not sufficient and adherence to them wasn’t observed either. Even the majority of services providers and heath care professionals weren’t aware of use of personal protective equipment (PPE); their use and sequences of donning and doffing, except for those working in intensive care units and isolation areas. Thanks to COVID-19 who taught us to be familiar with these things whether their use is un-common. COVID-19 has also been a guide for people in rehabilitation who are prime part of recovery from all illnesses including this pandemic. COVID-19 was found to be a cause of multiple complications i.e. pulmonary, cardiac, neurological, musculoskeletal, psychological and social. Attention was also diverted to recovery in all the mentioned aspects which led to provision and improvements in tertiary care setups with focus on rehabilitation as a mode of full recovery. The stakeholders have started to be more focused on improving the mental and physical aspects of disease along with the physiological. The rehabilitation and physical therapy services have not been spared from the pandemic. Where the physical therapy professionals were not ready and well trained to deal with contagious diseases and safety measures it put us in a bigger challenge. Many clinics and hospitals had scares availability of personnel protective equipment (PPE) which also lead to seriousness of situation. As for provision of physical therapy care direct contact with patients cannot be limited, and lack of knowledge on unavailability of PPE could put therapist’s or the patient’s life in danger. Covid-19 opened the eyes and importance of teaching safety measures and donning and doffing of PPEs was learned with appropriate sequence. Although the well-organized hospitals were also working as per global standard protocols had least difficulty dealing with such issues. The physical therapists are trained to deal with such emergencies and critical situations but not being exposed to a pandemic and emergency like this has made the suppression of such reflexes in practice. The therapist learned to manage patients with optimum precautions making sure that the quality of care is not compromised. Several tele-rehabilitation models have also been develop and practiced to encounter the issue.1, 2 Hence we would take COVID-19 as an eye opener and as taught to be fair in the division of global resources and be prepared for a disaster that doesn’t discriminate among developed and undeveloped nations. The efficient use of services and being aware of emergency and safe healthcare practices can save us from unpredictable disasters like COVID-19.

Critical Image Identification via Incident-Type Definition Using Smartphone Data during an Emergency: A Case Study of the 2020 Heavy Rainfall Event in Korea.

In unpredictable disaster scenarios, it is important to recognize the situation promptly and take appropriate response actions. This study proposes a cloud computing-based data collection, processing, and analysis process that employs a crowd-sensing application. Clustering algorithms are used to define the major damage types, and hotspot analysis is applied to effectively filter critical data from crowdsourced data. To verify the utility of the proposed process, it is applied to Icheon-si and Anseong-si, both in Gyeonggi-do, which were affected by heavy rainfall in 2020. The results show that the types of incident at the damaged site were effectively detected, and images reflecting the damage situation could be classified using the application of the geospatial analysis technique. For 5 August 2020, which was close to the date of the event, the images were classified with a precision of 100% at a threshold of 0.4. For 24–25 August 2020, the image classification precision exceeded 95% at a threshold of 0.5, except for the mudslide mudflow in the Yul area. The location distribution of the classified images showed a distribution similar to that of damaged regions in unmanned aerial vehicle images.

Hydromechanical behaviors of andesite under different stress states during fluid injection

Water reinjection into the formation is an indispensable operation in many energy engineering practices. This operation involves a complex hydromechanical (HM) coupling process and sometimes even causes unpredictable disasters, such as induced seismicity. It is acknowledged that the relative magnitude and direction of the principal stresses significantly influence the HM behaviors of rocks during injection. However, due to the limitations of current testing techniques, it is still difficult to comprehensively conduct laboratory injection tests under various stress conditions, such as in triaxial extension stress states. To this end, a numerical study of HM changes in rocks during injection under different stress states is conducted. In this model, the saturated rock is first loaded to the target stress state under drainage conditions, and then the stress state is maintained and water is injected from the top to simulate the formation injection operation. Particular attention is given to the difference in HM changes under triaxial compression and extension stresses. This includes the differences in the pore pressure propagation, mean effective stress, volumetric strain, and stress-induced permeability. The numerical results demonstrate that the differential stress will significantly affect the HM behaviors of rocks, but the degree of influence is different under the two triaxial stress states. The HM changes caused by the triaxial compression stress states are generally greater than those of extension, but the differences decrease with increasing differential stress, indicating that the increase in the differential stress will weaken the impact of the stress state on the HM response. In addition, the shear failure potential of fracture planes with various inclination angles is analyzed and summarized under different stress states. It is recommended that engineers could design suitable injection schemes according to different tectonic stress fields versus fault occurrence to reduce the risk of injection-induced seismicity. • A numerical model of the hydromechanical coupling process during injection is established and verified based on laboratory testing data. • The effects of three stress states on the hydromechanical behavior and the shear failure potential of rocks are studied, the differences in hydromechanical changes under triaxial compression and extension stress states are studied.