Unpredictable Disasters Research Articles

Enhancing business continuity management capacities in the insurance industry: a Southeast Asian perspective

As a resilience enhancing practice, business continuity management (BCM) can play an important role in aiding preparation of the insurance industry for coping with the losses incurred by major discontinuity incidents: regardless of cause. Acknowledging the increasing frequency of unpredictable man-made disasters and natural catastrophes, the insurance industry would benefit from examining and implementing, where suitable, key elements of BCM. Such strategic decisions would assist insurers and re-insurers collectively to enhance mutual capability to respond to, and recover from, the impact of significant losses. This paper presents a comparison of opinions about BCM practitioners in both retail and re-insurance companies on the importance of generic continuity practices with actual levels of BCM practice across the two industry groups in Southeast Asia. It suggests means by which multi-lateral cooperation across Asian economies and between retail and re-insurance market segments might enhance the viability of the insurance industry in the face of increased stress from major natural and socio-technical hazards.

Emergencies and Disasters: Children's Vulnerability and Psychosocial Resilience.

The main aim of this paper is to summarize the most significant factors that can influence the impact of a natural disaster on children and adolescents. First, the principal psychological approaches are synthesized. Literature offers four models to explain the impact of a natural disaster on individual functioning: (1) homeostatic model; (2) transactional model; (3) motivational perspective; (4) socio-cognitive theories. These models must be analysed together to better explain the effect of a natural disaster on the individual, family and social context. Starting with a definition of stress, we focused on the psychological processes involved and the specific effects on children's development. Several studies have found that unexpected and uncontrollable events can cause various physical and psychological problems in children and adolescents. We examined the relationship between the parents' reactions and their children's well being. In general, the family can represent a functional protector system, but it is necessity to provide psychological support to help individuals cope with the distress caused by unpredictable natural disasters. Specific social support must be provided to promote both individual and family resilience.

U-Gov의 재난 대응체계를 위해 UT를 응용한 예측 프로토타입과 정책적과제 연구

최근 우리사회는 예측이 불가능한 재난발생의 양상이 다변화 하고 있다. 그러므로 안전문제에 대한 부정적인 인식이 나타나면서, UT를 활용한 우리 일상의 재난 대응체계를 준비하자는 해결방안이 부각되고 있다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 u-Gov의 응용서비스로 재난 대응체계를 위해 UT를 응용한 예측 프로토타입을 제시하였다. 그리고 UT를 응용한 정책과제로, e-Gov와 u-Gov의 차별성을 비교분석하여, e-Gov의 한계를 극복하는 방안으로 u-Gov의 개선안과 예측 프로토타입 구현시 예상되는 문제의 개선점도 제시하였다. Recently, the society confronts unpredictable disasters and the aspects varies in diverse ways. As a pessimistic perception on the social safety starts emerging, the UT utilized actional system for disaster is viewed as a solution. Therefore, in this paper, I provided UT applied forecast prototype which is a portion of u-Gov's application services. Also, as one of UT applied policy subject, I distinguished and analyzed the differences between e-Gov and u-Gov and, finally, suggested u-Gov's reform in order to surpass e-Gov's limitation and amelioration for possible problems during prototype materialization.

Leveraging e-transportation in real-time traffic evacuation management

As part of intelligent transportation systems, Internet-connected sensors and cameras have become ubiquitous along roads and highways, enabling many novel e-transportation applications. In this research, we leverage this emerging technology to improve the surface transportation aspect of homeland security, by enhancing its support for evacuation in case of terrorist attacks or other unpredictable disasters. In particular, we extend our existing work on developing a Smart Traffic Evacuation Management System (STEMS), by proposing more efficient evacuation algorithms that dynamically generate evacuation plans for both single and multiple incidents scenarios, based on real-time traffic information obtained from sensor data available through the Web.

Physiology of veins in pregnancy

One largely unpredictable disaster in pregnancy is venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism; this is the main cause of maternal mortality in the United Kingdom today, and basic research into the pathophysiology of this disorder is welcome. Two papers in this month's issue study the changes in diameter and blood flow in the veins of the lower limb in pregnancy. Colette Sparey and her colleagues (pages 557–562) measured the diameters of several veins in the leg in thirty women using colour flow duplex Doppler ultrasound, and found that the diameter of the long saphenous vein increased progressively in pregnancy until about 34 weeks of gestation, decreasing towards term, and on the left side, into the puerperium. Similar although less marked changes were seen in the deep veins of the thigh, at the knee and in the calf. No venous reflux was found in any of the women. Alexandra Biichtemann and her colleagues (pages 563–569) go further, by measuring both venous diameter and blood flow in the veins of the lower limb in fifteen pregnant women before and after the application of graduated compression stockings. The diameter of the superficial femoral vein is similar in the two studies, and Biichtemann and colleagues confirm that it increases throughout pregnancy. The authors show also that with graduated compression stockings the diameter of the superfkial femoral vein decreased, the volume of blood expelled from the leg on dorsiflexion increased, the time for refilling of the veins decreased and that the velocity of blood flow in the legs increased. Our intuition leads us to expect the results of these studies, yet they are among the first to investigate formally the function of veins in the lower limb throughout pregnancy and in the puerperium. Our greater understanding of the basic science of venous physiology and pathophysiology will help us to prevent the dreaded complications of venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism associated with pregnancy.

Prescriptions for Peace: Policy Implications of Cross-Cultural Research on War and Interpersonal Violence

War is more likely when people have a history of unpredictable disasters that destroy food supplies. People often go to war to take resources that would cushion them against future scarcity. The risk of war might be reduced, therefore, if people could be assured that the world would share with those who suffer disasters. In addition, a more democratic world might mean a more peaceful world. The robust relationship between democracy and peace suggests that it is counterproductive to support any undemocratic regimes. Finally, higher rates of homicide, in the ethnographic as well as cross-national records, are predicted by more war. Because more war seems to favor socialization for aggression, it seems that if the world is to be rid of violence, people may first have to rid the world of war.

Investment Evaluation under Uncertainty

* Evaluation of future cash flows under conditions of certainty is well known; it leads to the present method. This paper shows that maximization of expected utility is a very restrictive method of expressing one's attitude to risk. Most businessmen would judge it unreasonable once it is explained to them what this method really implies. By using a preference ordering, which is not equivalent to any utility function, and by focusing attention on the possibility of unpredictable disasters in the future, we develop a new method of investment evaluation. Qualitatively, the new approach turns out to be very similar to the one used by businessmen, and not at all similar to discounted present value. We give an example of two projects, A and B, where A is preferred to B by the discounted present value method at all values of the discount rate, but A is inferior to B by the new evaluation. The discussion in the body of this paper is literary. All the mathematics is contained in appendices and can be skipped by the non-mathematical reader. Introduction and Notation