Unpredictable Climate Change Research Articles

Out in the cold and sick: low temperatures and fungal infections impair a frog's skin defenses.

Amphibians worldwide continue to battle an emerging infectious disease, chytridiomycosis, caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Southern leopard frogs, Rana sphenocephala, are known to become infected with this pathogen, yet they are considered 'of least concern' for declines due to chytridiomycosis. Previous studies have shown that R. sphenocephala secretes four antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) onto their skin which may play an important role in limiting susceptibility to chytridiomycosis. Here, we examined (1) the effects of temperature and AMP depletion on infections with Bd and (2) the effects of temperature and Bd infection on the capacity to secrete AMPs in juvenile leopard frogs. Pathogen burden and mortality were greater in frogs exposed to Bd at low temperature but did not increase following monthly AMP depletion. Both low temperature and Bd exposure reduced the capacity of juvenile frogs to restore peptides after monthly depletions. Frogs held at 14°C were poorly able to restore peptides in comparison with those at 26°C. Frogs held at 26°C were better able to restore their peptides, but when exposed to Bd, this capacity was significantly reduced. These results strongly support the hypothesis that both colder temperatures and Bd infection impair the capacity of juvenile frogs to produce and secrete AMPs, an important component of their innate defense against chytrid fungi and other pathogens. Thus, in the face of unpredictable climate changes and enzootic pathogens, assessments of disease risk should consider the potential for effects of environmental variation and pathogen exposure on the quality of host defenses.

Nomads’ indigenous knowledge and their adaptation to climate changes in Semirom City in Central Iran

Herding-based livelihood is a traditional production system in arid and semi-arid areas characterized by a dynamic and flexible self-adapting structure to adjust to unpredictable climate changes and unfavorable natural conditions. In this case, indigenous knowledge and information systems play a pivotal role in linking such structures to changing conditions. Taking such role into account, an attempt was made to investigate the nomadic knowledge of local people residing in summer rangelands of Semirom Township in Isfahan Province, Iran, gained in response to climate change. A cluster sampling procedure was used to extract the case study population from a number of nearly 7700 Qashqai nomads divided into four, Dare shoori, Amale, Shesh blocki, and Farsimdan, clans in which grazing systems were recognized as clusters or sampling units. In-depth group interviewing and exploratory methods were then used to assess the role of nomadic indigenous knowledge and insights into utilization of summer rangelands gained on adaptation to climate change and data collected from interviews were analyzed using content analysis. The results showed that people of Qashqai tribes have a thorough knowledge of climate change and have adopted long-term adaptive solutions such as building cement-block houses and water storage ponds as well as changing the migration routes and locations to cope with the adverse consequences of climate change.

Phenotypical Responses of Cotton and Relation to Lint Yield Under Deficit Irrigation Schemes in Semi‐Arid Environments

Adoption of regulated deficit irrigation scheme changes phenotypical responses but not lint yield. Adoption of suitable deficit irrigation scheme would result in the same lint yield as full irrigation. Morphological parameters can be used as predictors of lint yield before harvesting. Physiological parameters failed to show a consistent close relationship to lint yield under various deficit irrigation schemes. Increasing water productivity in semiarid regions is a critical sustainable production strategy to mitigate the challenges posed by depleting water resources and unpredictable climate change. Deficit irrigation has been a widely investigated practice to save water, improve water productivity, and maximize crop yield. A field experiment was conducted at the Texas AgriLife Research and Extension Center at Uvalde, TX, in 2008 and 2009 to examine the water saving potential of four traditional (fixed deficit ratios ranging from 50–80%, referred as T) and two regulated (dynamic deficit ratios of 75 and 50% overall, referred as R) deficit irrigation treatments against a full irrigation treatment. Four cultivars were assigned to the experimental field each year to test irrigation and cultivar effects on lint yield and morphological and physiological responses of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.). Morphological parameters showed no interaction between irrigation scheme and cultivar; however, most physiological parameters showed significant interaction between the irrigation scheme and cultivar (P < 0.05) in both years. The results also showed that: (i) two deficit irrigation treatments (80T and 70R) were found to maintain lint yield similar to the control (CTRL) in most of the cultivars; (ii) morphological parameters reflected the differences in lint yield and may be used as predictors before harvest; and (iii) physiological parameters failed to show a close consistent relationship to lint yield under various deficit irrigation schemes. Using seasonal cumulative net assimilation rate, transpiration rate, and water use efficiency may be better parameters for predicting lint yield before harvest.

The use of soil cooling for growing temperate crops under tropical climate

Global climate changes have been reported to be affecting the already stressed agricultural ecosystem, especially temperate agriculture which is highly dependent on low soil temperature for optimum growth performance. The current trends of temperate agriculture include enclosed greenhouses or hydroponics techniques, but shown to be inadequate to produce temperate crops under hot and humid weather of tropical climate. This urges the need for a more sustainable farming system which is soil cooling method as described in this study. Soil cooling system cools the soils to temperate soil temperature ranges between 14.6 and 20.1 °C providing a conducive growth condition for temperate produce. The aim of this study is to confirm the usefulness of soil cooling for growing temperate crops under tropical climate. In this study, a model temperate crop, loose leaf lettuce, was grown in an enclosed greenhouse with soil cooling system for its 3-growth cycle. Air and soil temperatures were recorded during the lettuce growth. Lettuces were evaluated in terms of weight, height, number of leaves, leaf area and root length upon each harvest cycle. Under soil cooling, lettuces showed significant difference in average weight (p < 0.05) and positive development in the roots, shoot and leaves of lettuces for its 3-growth cycle. The findings showed that soil cooling approach was able to prepare soils to temperate soil temperature which serves as a potential alternative for growing temperate crops in the future, throughout the year under unpredictable climate changes.

Assessing Adaptation Strategies to the Impacts of Climate Change: A Case Study of Pungu - Upper East Region, Ghana

The research was undertaken at Pungu in the Kassena Nankana Municipal Assembly in the Upper East Region of Ghana, in order to assess the adaptation strategies of the impacts of climate change by indigenes with respect to the unpredictable change in climate at the area (Pungu). The study was based on climate change impact on health, water resources, agriculture and socio-economic statuses as questionnaire and interview were the scientific methods utilized in this findings. The results from the assessment showed that, indigenes sleep either outside or inside which is dependent on prevailing atmospheric temperature to prevent heat related illness such as cerebrospinal meningitis (CSM) among others. The study also found out that unpredictable climate change had detrimental impact on water resources and agriculture in the area which inevitably affected their social and economic works. So, adaptation strategies such as hand-dug wells and boreholes are resorted to cope with the impacts of climate change on the aforementioned statuses. Frequent seminars and public education on the awareness of climate change, impacts and adaptation strategies are recommended.

Factors influencing suicide in older rural males: a review of Australian studies.

Suicide remains an important public health issue in Australia, responsible for around 2500 deaths each year. Although suicide only accounts for around 1.7% of total mortality in Australia per year, 75% of suicide deaths are in males. This article reviews the factors contributing to suicide in older rural males in Australia and then categorises the papers into themes for ease of explanation. Living with experiences of drought, dramatic weather change, lower employment opportunities, out-migration, changing family dynamics, ageism in the community, economic change and competitive labour markets, all add to the diverse experience for an older person who is ageing in a rural setting. A literature search was conducted in March 2015, using the terms 'elderly' and 'older males' and then combined with 'rural', 'suicide' and 'Australia', to investigate the amount of research that has been conducted on the factors relating to suicide in older rural Australian males. Reviewed articles consisted of research using either quantitative or qualitative approaches, which investigated suicide in older Australians published between 1950 and 2014. With strict adherence to the selection criteria, articles (21 in total) were removed because they were a literature review; a narrative review; they focused predominantly on youth or suicide risk, suicidal ideation or suicide attempts; or they discussed reasons for living. This article discusses the researcher's recommendations for further research into employment transitions for older Australian males, and the need to review policy change for further intervention in the future. This article highlights factors that may cause older rural Australians to be placed at a higher risk of suicide than their urban-dwelling counterparts. With the impact of the changing economy, unpredictable climatic conditions and dynamic changes in rural Australian families, there is a need to highlight research that has been conducted in this area. Future research should focus on identification of misclassification of suicide deaths, investigation of the possible effect that retirement pathways may have on older Australian males, suicide prevention strategies, mental wellbeing and the risk of suicidal behaviour. This will ascertain any compounding or protective factors that could influence this current trend.

An operational risk analysis tool to analyze marine transportation in Arctic waters

The Arctic Ocean has drawn major attention in recent years due to its rich natural resources and shorter navigational routes. Arctic development and transportation involve significant risk caused by the unique features of this region, such as ice, severe operating conditions, unpredictable climatic changes, and remoteness. Considering the high degree of uncertainty in the performance of vessel operating systems and humans, robust risk analysis and management tools are required to provide decision-support to prevent accidents and ensure safety at sea. This paper proposes an Object-Oriented Bayesian Network model to dynamically predict ship-ice collision probability based on navigational and operational system states, weather and ice conditions, and human error. The model, when integrated with potential consequences, may help estimate risk. A case study related to oil tanker navigation on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) is used to show the application of the proposed model to predict oil tanker collision with sea ice.

COP22 – Marrakech 2016: Is the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol dead?

No abstract available.

Climate Change and Potential Impact on Disease: What are the Public Health Agenda?

Globally, the impact of climate change on human health is widely discussed. There are several mechanisms how environmental variability can influence the occurrence of diseases that are communicable or noncommunicable. The biophysical underlying causes of climate changes are not proportionately distributed between developed and developing countries. Developed countries contribute more greenhouse emissions, but the population health effects of climate change are estimated to be higher in developing countries compared to developed countries. Therefore, examination of challenges associated with climate change should be a priority. In the countries of North Africa and the Middle East, a clear public health agenda needs to be developed, even if local/regional factors contributing to unpredictable climatic changes are not well-known. Targeting risk factors associated with noncommunicable diseases, and adopting lifestyle changes are interventions to consider.

Transgenic Crops and the Environment

Continuous practice of old methods in agriculture cannot reduce the food scarcity, as the over use of chemicals, drought and infertile soil are a severe issues where the investment is more and the yielding is less, these all due to unpredictable climatic changes and uncontrolled pesticides. To overcome these issues scientist have concentrated on the new technology by combining the specific genes in-vivo for the crops which is called transgenic crops/plants.

Analysis of Energy Supply Status based on Operating Performance of Integrated Energy Business in Korea

Electricity demand is surging every year in Korea owing to economic growth and a subsequent increase in energy demand. In particular, heavy cooling load during summer and high heating load during winter to fight heat wave and cold wave, respectively, which are allegedly caused by the unpredictable climate change, trigger electricity peak and unstable energy supply as a result. Integrated Energy Business (IEB), which is known as regional heating overseas, draws attention as a distributed energy that can address such structural issues as blackout in the central supply system. Yet, electricity charge lower than production cost, realistic challenges in direct sales of energy production facilities and energy loss incurred from transporting energy from supply facilities to receiving ends keep it from rooting down in Korea. This study compared number of households, number of buildings to which electricity is supplied, capacity of supply facilities, amount of fuel and production and sales volume of energy in order to determine appropriate supply capacity of heat and electricity in regional cooling/heating areas and industrial complexes based on Korea's IEB operation. Also, the study grouped IEB systems according to sizes of energy supply facilities and compared them so as to suggest an appropriate size of IEB and an effective supply system that can be considered for new housing site projects or re-developed regions.

Germination Studies in Some Varieties of Vigna unguiculata L. Walp. (Cowpea) from Northern Nigeria

Unpredictable climate change is already having a profound effect on our agricultural crops thus, the need to have periodic data base on their physiology. The consequences of the change is becoming more wide spread affecting all component of our ecosystem including the vegetable species. The present studies was carried out to study cowpea seed germination and seedling establishment of seven varieties (Sampea-5, Sampea-6, Sampea-7, Sampea-8, Sampea-9, Sampea-10 and Sampea-12) in the laboratory and botanical garden of the Department of Biological Sciences, Ahmadu Bello University Zaria-Nigeria. Cowpea is used to substitute the insufficient expensive animal protein in the diet of many people in Nigeria either directly or in other preparation. Water absorption rate of cowpea seeds during imbibitions were determined after 30 min of soaking in water. Significant difference were found among Sampea-5, Sampea-7, Sampea-8, Sampea-10 and Sampea-12 while there was no significant difference between Sampea-6 and Sampea-7 in terms of water absorption rate. Mean comparison showed that the highest germination percentage (100%), seedling weight change (1.52 g), shoot length (25.81 cm), root length (23.12 cm) was observed. Based on this result, the analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed significant difference in the rate of imbibitions as well as shoots and root length exist in the seven cowpea varieties.

Functional agrobiodiversity and agroecosystem services in sustainable wheat production. A review

Agrobiodiversity can improve the sustainability of cropping systems in a context of low external inputs and unpredictable climate change. Agrobiodiversity strategies to grow wheat are breeding ad hoc cultivars for organic and low-input systems, wheat–legume intercrops and living mulches, cultivar mixtures, and the use of genetically heterogeneous populations. However, applying those strategies can fail due the lack of a well-focused framework. Therefore, we need a better integration between breeding and management and a clear focus on crop traits related to key agroecosystem services. Here, we review the use of agrobiodiversity in wheat production, focusing on breeding and management. We discuss five agroecosystem services: (1) weed reduction, (2) nitrogen use efficiency, (3) abiotic stress tolerance, (4) disease and pest reduction and (5) yield and yield stability. We categorise agrobiodiversity into functional identity, functional composition, and functional diversity, in order to link crop traits to agroecosystem services. Linking crop traits to agroecosystem services could in turn lead to concrete options for farmers and policy. We discuss the relations between crop identity and crop heterogeneity. We also discuss the partitioning of crop heterogeneity between functional composition and functional diversity.

Impact of Climate Change on the Fishermen’s Livelihood Development: a case study of village in Coromandel Coast

This study analyzes the impact of climate change on fishermen livelihood development. Climate change is defined a change in the statistical properties of the climate system in particular region when considered over long periods of time, regardless of cause. However it is classified into two categories namely predictable and unpredictable climate change based on the discussion with village dwellers. In this paper, those climate change or weather condition that may occur in coming times could be predicated in advance is defined as predictable climate changes for example cyclone and those climate change or weather condition could not be predictable in advance is defined as unpredictable climate changes for example changing water current. This study focuses on the impact of unpredictable climate change on the fishermen livelihood development. It has gained a few attentions from the social science researches. The data for this study were collected through informant case studies from fishing village of Pommaiyar Palaiyam located in Coromandel Coast, Tamil Nadu, India during the intensive fieldwork period of doctoral research, and the qualitative approaches are used for analyzing the data. The finding of this study explores the correlation between the unpredictable climate change and multi-dimensional paradigm of poverty of the proposed study village as follows: (1) the climate change of the village from the last two years, (2) the impact of unpredictable climate change on fishermen livelihood development activities: occupation uncertainty, income disorganization, damages, loses of fishing equipments and psycho-social problems, and (3) the suggestions and recommendations from this issue. This study analyzed their social problem especially multi- dimensional poverty with the concept of vicious circle which is a key factor for their prolonged poverty and psycho-social problem which is a barrier for livelihood development activities uplifting of this village and suggests that the measures to be taken to reduce the present scenario of the people.

Advances in high permeability polymeric membrane materials for CO2separations

Global CO2 emissions have increased steadily in tandem with the use of fossil fuels. A paradigm shift is needed in developing new ways by which energy is supplied and utilized, together with the mitigation of climate change through CO2 reduction technologies. There is an almost universal acceptance of the link between rising anthropogenic CO2 levels due to fossil fuel combustion and global warming accompanied by unpredictable climate change. Therefore, renewable energy, non-fossil fuels and CO2 capture and storage (CCS) must be deployed on a massive scale. CCS technologies provide a means for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, in addition to the current strategies of improving energy efficiency. Coal-fired power plants are among the main large-scale CO2 emitters, and capture of the CO2 emissions can be achieved with conventional technologies such as amine absorption. However, this energy-consuming process, calculated at approximately 30% of the power plant capacity, would result in unacceptable increases in power generation costs. Membrane processes offer a potentially viable energy-saving alternative for CO2 capture because they do not involve any phase transformation. However, typical gas separation membranes that are currently available have insufficiently high permeability to be able to process the massive volumes of flue gas, which would result in a high CO2 capture. Polymer membranes highly permeable to CO2 and having good selectivity should be developed for the membrane process to be viable. This perspective review summarizes recent noteworthy advances in polymeric materials having very high CO2 permeability and good CO2/N2 selectivity that largely surpass the separation performance of conventional polymer materials. Five important classes of polymer membrane materials are highlighted: polyimides, thermally rearranged polymers (TRs), substituted polyacetylenes, polymers with intrinsic microporosity (PIM) and polyethers, which provide insights into polymer designs suitable for CO2 separation from, for example, the post-combustion flue gases in coal-fired power plants.

Risk‐Averse Mitigation Decisions in an Unpredictable Climate System*

AbstractRisk aversion plays a central role in the decisions made in the face of uncertainties, and climate‐change mitigation should be no exception. However, the interlinkage of risk aversion and climate‐change uncertainties has hardly been investigated numerically, in part because of the computational difficulties of stochastic optimization. In this paper, we apply the numerical techniques of stochastic optimization to the economic modeling of climate change, with the aim of modeling the decision preferences of a risk‐conscious agent in the face of unpredictable climate change. The model underlines the critical role played by the risk‐aversion parameter in determining the effects of uncertainties on mitigation, not only in level but also in sign.

Coping with extreme climate events: Institutional flocking

The article explores the governance structures that would be needed to cope with extreme and unpredictable climate change. The impacts on the Netherlands of a Gulf Stream collapse in the Northern Atlantic are taken as a case. This hypothetical situation of serious risks and high uncertainties requires governance arrangements with high potentials for rapid and radical change. Using the metaphor of the flocking of birds, we characterize these arrangements as ‘institutional flocking’. Main features of institutional flocking are: (1) flexible opportunities for actors to swiftly respond to change through creative forms of collaboration and participation; (2) rapid and pervasive processes of learning and institutionalization of new knowledge among actors; (3) strong and institutionalized care for coherence and solidarity, to bind the various parts of the ‘flock’. We illustrate and articulate these features for two sectors in Dutch society, urban infrastructure and rural planning.

Living the sweet life: how does a plant pathogenic fungus acquire sugar from plants?

Plant diseases are an important constraint on worldwide crop production, accounting for losses of 10–30% of the global harvest each year [1]. As a consequence, crop diseases represent a significant threat to ensuring global food security. To feed the growing human population it will be necessary to double food production by 2050, which will require the sustainable intensification of world agriculture in an era of unpredictable climate change [2],[3]. Controlling the most important plant diseases represents one of the best means of delivering as much of the current productivity of crops as possible. To accomplish this task, a fundamental understanding of the biology of plant infection by disease-causing agents, such as viruses, bacteria, and fungi will be necessary [1],[2].

Human security in the Asia Pacific: perspective of food and health security.

As combined new factors could further complicate the food supply and health security for regional countries, new perspective on human security should be prioritized on securing health security in the region. In recent years, food production and supply has been affected by unpredictable climate change and unaccountable manmade factors in the region. With increased pressure from food security issues, personal health and human security is badly affected. It poses a threat to human security and becomes a concern of all states. In the new era, the pressing reality for all countries is that there is no exception for anyone before a pandemic. Threats to human security become not only a national security issue but also a transnational challenge.

Setting Conservation Priorities - A Key Biodiversity Areas Analysis for the Seychelles Islands

Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) are areas identified as being important for the conservation of biodiversity due to the presence of threatened species or habitats, or particularly high levels of biodiversity. They are a useful concept for setting site conservation priorities, combining other categories such as biodiversity hotspots, Important Bird Areas and 'ecoregions'. An analysis of the terrestrial KBAs of the Seychelles islands based on comprehensive biodiversity assess- ments identifies 48 sites of conservation importance. A high proportion of the land area of Seychelles is designated as pro- tected areas, however, the KBA analysis indicates that this needs to be expanded by a further 47km 2 . The KBAs are threatened by development (6 sites), sea-level rise (13 sites) and unpredictable climate change (16 sites). Habitat degrada- tion caused by invasive species is the most significant threat to the largest number of KBAs, affecting all 48 sites with in- vasive species dominating the plant communities in 15 sites. There is an urgent requirement for future conservation in Seychelles to combine effective legal protection of KBAs with large-scale habitat restoration.