Unplanned Factors Research Articles

Media research and proposals for media change: Notes on a key variable

A significant body of media research internationally involves suggestions for planned change, often as a key point of conclusion. The suggested changes or reforms are placed in the context of perceived deficits in media performance, which may be seen as longstanding or as a result of recent shifts in the broader economy, the political frame or a major disruption such as that brought about by COVID-19. Some research restricts itself to documenting the deficits with possible remedies largely implied. However, other work seeks to go further. Recommendations for change in media structures and practices differ widely in their scale, specificity and also in their level of engagement with the surrounding political, economic and social settings. These settings are the consequence of various planned and unplanned factors interacting over time. This note looks at a number of variables around ideas of planned change in the contexts of current media inquiry, including that of media historiography, taking a few illustrative examples to examine the frameworks within which they are placed. It reviews connections made with levels of the political and economic system and of public evaluations and media uses as well as with the levels of the media industries themselves and their workforces.

ANALISA PENERAPAN TPM (TOTAL PRODUCTIVE MAINTENANCE) DAN OEE (OVERALL EQUIPMENT EFFECTIVENESS) PADA MESIN AUTO CUTTING DI PT XYZ

The research was conducted at PT XYZ company with two cutting machines as the object of research. In this study, the OEE value is influenced by unplanned factors and planned factors with an observation range starting from July 2021 to December 2021. The percentage value of the first cutting machine availability rate in December is 94.85% while the second cutting machine is 87 in August, 49%. Analysis of the performance rate of the first engine was in July with a percentage of 99.20% while the second engine was at a value of 98.45% in October. Then, for the highest quality rate value, the first machine was 99.96% in August while the second machine was in July at 99.89%. From the three analyzes, it can be concluded that the first engine has only one month of below-standard performance, while the second engine has several months of below-standard performance in accordance with the OEE value obtained on each engine.

Planned or emergent? An evaluation of a Master\u2019s in Health Professions Education programme

BackgroundProgramme developers have the responsibility of ongoing programme renewal and evaluation to ensure that curricula remain responsive to rapidly changing educational and healthcare contexts. In reporting on programmes, significant emphasis is often placed on content and outcomes of Master’s in Health Professions Education (MHPE) programmes. However, less emphasis has been placed on meaningful evaluation of all aspects of these programmes, particularly from a student perspective including what worked and what needs to be enhanced, as well as any emergent or unplanned factors. As the number of established MHPE programmes increases, so does the need for evaluation models that consider programme complexity. In this article we consider a MHPE programme against a model that provided scope for going beyond ‘did it work?’ Our intention was to determine whether the renewed MPhil in HPE programme was implemented as planned, and to which extent it achieved the planned outcomes.MethodsThis programme evaluation was conducted in an interpretive paradigm. We collected qualitative data at two points. Firstly, at the start of students’ first-year with voluntary participation in focus groups and secondly, a year later with voluntary participation in individual interviews. Two members of the research team performed the initial thematic analysis of both the focus group interviews and the individual interviews. Thereafter, the full author team worked collaboratively discussing the themes until we reached consensus, looking specifically to identify any “emergent” factors.ResultsWe identified three themes in the student data related to the process of implementing the new programme and the outcomes from it, including those aspects that could be regarded as emergent or unplanned: balancing work, personal lives and studies; managing the hybrid learning approach; and the scholarly journey.ConclusionsWhile many of the outcomes of the renewed programme were met, not all manifested as had been planned. The experience of the programme differed from one student to the next such that at the end of the two years they were at different points in their scholarly journeys. We realised that although we sought to be pedagogically sound in the process of curriculum renewal, we did not take into account the complex matrix of influences that sit outside the formal curriculum. Future renewal activities should intentionally and sensitively consider those factors, both planned and emergent, that influence a student’s journey towards becoming a scholarly teacher and teaching scholar.

Unintended consequences and the problem of ensuring sustainable development

The sources, types, and mechanisms of formation and tools for minimizing "unintended consequences" of economic reforms in Ukraine are considered. "Unintended consequences" are understood as unpredictable, unintentional, indirect, and incredible consequences of actions of initiators, organizers and executors of Ukrainian reforms, which were not included in their plans but happened in reality and have have a decisive influence on the state of the national economy. The methodological basis of the study includes historical-genetic, comparative, statistical, and graphical analysis. The origins of the study of " unintended consequences" of human actions can be traced in the works of N. Machiavelli, J. B. Vico, B. Mandeville, A. Ferguson, W. Petty, A. Smith, J.-B. Sаy, K. Marx, С. Menger , W. Pareto, M. Weber, F. Hayek, and R. Merton. Prerequisites for the "unintended consequences" of economic reforms in Ukraine include insufficient competence of initiators and organizers, errors in analyzing problems due to ignoring the specifics of the current situation, focus on achieving immediate results without the possibility to calculate long-term consequences of implemented measures, underestimation of the role of basic values of national culture and the impact of disclosure of predictions on the behavior of economic entities. The types of “unintended consequences” that affected the course of economic reforms in Ukraine include those that, while remaining functional for the system, rely on latent, unconscious and unplanned factors arising from latent dysfunctions. Varieties of mechanisms for the formation of "unintended consequences" of economic reforms in Ukraine include the manifestation of the results of latent functions, self-realization of social beliefs and self-destructive beliefs. It is substantiated that the practice of mandatory preliminary testing at the local level on the basis of relevant information platforms makes it possible to eliminate shortcomings in advance, clarify and improve the implemented measures, determine their social effectiveness, and choose the best alternative. Conducting preliminary economic experiments avoids situations where, as a result of the reform, certain groups gain access to various types of rental income at the expense of society.

Непередбачувані наслідки і проблема забезпечення сталого розвитку

The sources, types, and mechanisms of formation and tools for minimizing "unintended consequences" of economic reforms in Ukraine are considered. "Unintended consequences" are understood as unpredictable, unintentional, indirect, and incredible consequences of actions of initiators, organizers and executors of Ukrainian reforms, which were not included in their plans but happened in reality and have have a decisive influence on the state of the national economy. The methodological basis of the study includes historical-genetic, comparative, statistical, and graphical analysis. The origins of the study of " unintended consequences" of human actions can be traced in the works of N. Machiavelli, J. B. Vico, B. Mandeville, A. Ferguson, W. Petty, A. Smith, J.-B. Sаy, K. Marx, С. Menger , W. Pareto, M. Weber, F. Hayek, and R. Merton. Prerequisites for the "unintended consequences" of economic reforms in Ukraine include insufficient competence of initiators and organizers, errors in analyzing problems due to ignoring the specifics of the current situation, focus on achieving immediate results without the possibility to calculate long-term consequences of implemented measures, underestimation of the role of basic values of national culture and the impact of disclosure of predictions on the behavior of economic entities. The types of “unintended consequences” that affected the course of economic reforms in Ukraine include those that, while remaining functional for the system, rely on latent, unconscious and unplanned factors arising from latent dysfunctions. Varieties of mechanisms for the formation of "unintended consequences" of economic reforms in Ukraine include the manifestation of the results of latent functions, self-realization of social beliefs and self-destructive beliefs. It is substantiated that the practice of mandatory preliminary testing at the local level on the basis of relevant information platforms makes it possible to eliminate shortcomings in advance, clarify and improve the implemented measures, determine their social effectiveness, and choose the best alternative. Conducting preliminary economic experiments avoids situations where, as a result of the reform, certain groups gain access to various types of rental income at the expense of society.

Real-world use of emicizumab in patients with haemophilia A: Bleeding outcomes and surgical procedures.

Emicizumab is a recombinant humanized bispecific antibody that bridges factor IXa and factor X to mimic the cofactor function of factor VIII. It is approved to prevent bleeding in patients with haemophilia A (HA). Outside of clinical trials, there is limited data on outcomes of patients treated with emicizumab, particularly in children without inhibitors. To report our experience treating patients with emicizumab, including (a) bleeding rates pre and postemicizumab, (b) peri-procedural management and outcomes and (c) serious drug-related adverse events. Multicentre observational study in patients with HA who started emicizumab prior to 15 May 2019. Data collection continued until 15 October 2019 and included demographics, disease history, bleeding events, invasive procedures, thrombotic events and death. Annualized bleeding rates (ABR) prior to emicizumab were compared to postemicizumab. Ninety-three patients (including three females)met inclusion criteria, 19 with an active inhibitor. Median age was 8.6years; patients <12years without inhibitors (n=49) accounted for the majority. ABR dropped from 4.4 (inhibitors) and 1.6 (non-inhibitors) to 0.4 (both groups) on emicizumab, P=.0012 and .0025, respectively. There were 28 minor (21 port removals) and two major procedures. Three patients received 1-2 doses of unplanned factor postoperatively to treat minor bleeding events. No patient discontinued therapy, and there were no thrombotic events or deaths. Our favourable clinical experience with emicizumab is similar to that reported in the clinical trials. Notably, this is the largest cohort of patients <12years without inhibitors treated with emicizumab.

Tales of Serendipity in Highly Cited Research: an Explorative Study

Research and innovation are attributed a growing role in maintaining global competitiveness; in particular, research advances are seen as important catalysts for innovation and growth. However, our understanding is still limited concerning how important research results are achieved. This is particularly the case for the role of serendipity, where discoveries or the path towards them are unexpected. This paper explores through the use of a narrative approach the role of planned and unplanned factors and presents elements for understanding how and when serendipity occurs in highly cited research. In this explorative study, we have interviewed 12 first authors, each of whom has played a key role in a highly cited piece of research. Their own perceptions of how research progressed, key turning points, and conditions for the research are important in illustrating what motivates and influences the researchers’ pursuit of new discoveries. The narrative approach, by introducing a temporal element, is both able to characterize the stories behind the advances, including key turning points in achieving research accomplishments, and to analyze cross-cutting themes related to researcher behavior and environment for the research.

Can tourism lead competitive and sustainable development now and in the near future in Colombia?

This text presents a synthesis of the main results of a research project called “2030: a vision of tourism in Colombia”, whose central objective was to make a comprehensive assessment of tourism and to contribute guidelines and critical reflections on Colombia’s tourism policy and development. A major challenge was identified: how to achieve tourism while at the same time reducing social inequity and improving quality of life for the host communities of the zones that concurrently have the highest levels of environmental biodiversity and culture, and of poverty. If tourism in Colombia continues on its recent development pathway that is stimulated by external and unplanned factors, unsustainable scenarios are highly likely to emerge.

Study on impulsivity and cognitive function in patients with manic episodes of bipolar I disorder

Objective To explore the role of impulsivity in manic episodes of bipolar I disorder and cognitive impairment. Methods Sixty-one patients with bipolar I manic-episode (study group) and 43 healthy volunteers (control group) were included in the study, and the cognitive function and impulsivity of the subjects were assessed using the MATRICS consensus cognitive battery (MCCB) and BIS-11 impulsivity scale (BIS-11). The differences in impulsivity and cognitive function between the study group and control group were compared.Partial correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlation between impulsivity and cognitive function in patients with bipolar I manic episode. Results (1)The scores of several cognitive function in study group, were significantly lower than those in healthy control group including information processing speed, attention alertness, word learning, visual learning, working memory, reasoning and problem solving (all P<0.01). (2)The total score, motor factor score and cognitive factor score of BIS-11 impulse scale in study group were significantly higher than those in control group (58.39±15.77 vs 48.02±11.16, 62.09±19.01 vs 44.24±21.09, 56.97±16.57 vs 50.06±13.87, all P<0.05). Increased overall scores on the bis-11 impulse inventory may be a risk factor for bipolar I episodes(OR=1.204, 95%CI=1.032-1.404). (3)In study group, the total score of BIS-11 was negatively correlated with the speed of information processing, working memory, word learning, reasoning and problem solving, and the total score of MCCB(r=-0.417, -0.360, -0.294, -0.348, -0.348, P<0.05). The score of unplanned factor was negatively correlated with the speed of information processing, word learning, the total score of MCCB(r=-0.397, -0.302, -0.358, P<0.05). The score of cognitive factor was negatively correlated with the speed of information processing, working memory, word learning, reasoning and problem solving, and the total score of MCCB(r=-0.327, -0.351, -0.374, -0.391, -0.463, P<0.05). The score of motor factor was negatively correlated with working memory and the total score of MCCB(r=0.370, r=0.389, P<0.05). Conclusion High impulsivity is a risk factor for manic episodes of bipolar I disorder and may be associated with cognitive impairment in patients with manic episodes of bipolar I disorder. Key words: Bipolar disorder; Manic episodes; Impulsivity; Cognitive function

Characteristics of impulsiveness and aggressiveness in patients with hepatolenticular degeneration and its relationship with brain structure

Objective To investigate the impulsivity and aggressiveness characteristics of patients with hepatolenticular degeneration(HLD) and its relationship with brain structure. Methods The Chinese version of the Barratt impulsiveness scale, 11 version(BIS-11-C) and Buss-Perry aggression questionnaire(BPAQ) were assessed in 78 patients with hepatolenticular degeneration(HLD group) and 86 normal adults(health control group). HLD patients were examined by 3.0T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The differences in impulsivity and aggressiveness of the two groups were compared, and the relationship was analyzed between impulsivity, aggressiveness and different brain structures in patients with HLD. Results The total impulsive score, unplanned factor score, the total aggressive score and anger factor score of patients with cerebral HLD(61.74±9.82, 26.08±5.06, 82.71±15.92, 20.06±5.74, respectively) were higher than those in patients with hepatic HLD (56.73±7.11, 23.02±4.20, 72.84±11.15, 16.64±5.01, respectively), and health control group(52.19±7.53, 21.50±3.93, 64.64±9.83, 14.27±4.38, respectively), and the differences were significant (F=3.193, 4.646, 11.830, 8.270, all P<0.05). Total impulsive score was positively correlated with aggressive score and physical aggression in HLD group(r=0.299, 0.290, both P<0.05). Unplanned score was positively correlated with aggressive total score (r=0.324) and physical aggression (r=0.320) in HLD group (P<0.05). Frontal lobe injury was the influencing factor of total impulsive score(B=10.263, 95%CI=0.467-19.946, P=0.008), attention score(B=2.837, 95%CI=0.382-5.600, P=0.010) and unplanned factor score(B=3.977, 95%CI=0.848-8.502, P=0.046). Thalamus injury was the influencing factor of aggressive total score and its factor score.Caudate nucleus injury was the influencing factor of aggressive total score (B=10.030, 95% CI=3.351-18.039, P=0.017) and physical aggression score (B=4.432, 95% CI=1.193-7.729, P=0.016). Conclusion Patients with HLD have higher impulsive and aggressive tendencies, which are mainly manifested in unplanned impulsive and anger tendencies.Brain injury may be an important factor affecting impulsiveness and aggression in patients with HLD.Impulsiveness is related with frontal lobe injury and aggression to thalamus and caudate nucleus injury.Impulsiveness and aggressiveness in patients with HLD are not caused by damage to isolated brain areas, but are related to damage to multiple brain areas. Key words: Hepatolenticular degeneration; Wilson's disease; Impulsivity; Aggressiveness; Brain structure damage

Developing the R-TOPSIS methodology for risk-based preventive maintenance planning: A case study in rolling mill company

The importance of day-to-day maintenance has increased because it plays a vital role in maintaining and improving the availability, product quality, safety requirements, and low costs for organizations. There are numerous ways to plan and decide on the maintenance problems, where multi-criteria decision making is one of the fundamental tools. However, in many organizations, especially where information about the likelihood of equipment failure is low, the use of quantitative models is not feasible. Furthermore, because of the dynamic nature of maintenance and the existence of unpredicted or unplanned factors of the equipment reliability, planning the tasks becomes more difficult. Hence, this paper presents a novel fuzzy model to express fuzzy reliability and takes into consideration the risk and error of taking possible influential factors. Moreover, new concepts, such as positive and negative risks, positive and negative acceptable risks, and risk-based TOPSIS methodology for preventive maintenance planning in a multi-period time horizon, have been developed. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, a real case study is presented for one of the strategic units in a rolling mill company.

Fiscal consolidation and growth in Serbia, 2015-2017: Program, accomplishments and drivers

Despite the encouraging progress in economic and fiscal trends in 2015 and 2016, Serbia is still far from high economic growth and healthy public finances. In this paper, we provide an in-depth analysis of the drivers of the economic recovery and the fiscal deficit decrease in the previous two years. In both cases, the analyses have shown that the observed improvements rest, to a large extent, on short-term and unplanned factors that are easily exhausted. Economic activity was under a significant impact of external growth drivers - a strong drop in oil and food prices, decreased interest rates and faster recovery of the region and the Eurozone. This is why practically all countries in the region, and not just Serbia, exceeded GDP forecasts by about 1 p.p. in 2015 and 2016. The fiscal deficit was decreased primarily through a surprisingly high public revenue collection, while for the most part, the planned savings were not achieved. Fiscal risks, particularly those pertaining to poor business performances of public and state-owned enterprises, practically remain the same in 2017 as they were in 2014. All this indicates that the improved economic and fiscal trends leave no room for complacency, but should be observed as a rare opportunity to implement structural reforms in a somewhat more favourable environment without a direct pressure of an impending crisis. If this opportunity is missed now, the reforms will have to be implemented in a far less favourable environment and will thus be far more difficult.

Alcohol Consumption and its Related Harms in the Netherlands Since 1960: Relationships With Planned and Unplanned Factors

Aim: to establish which unplanned (social developments) and planned (alcohol policy measures) factors are related to per capita consumption and alcohol-related harms in the Netherlands. Methods: linear regression was used to establish which of the planned and unplanned factors were most strongly connected with alcohol consumption and harms. Artificial Neural Analysis (ANN) was used to inspect the interconnections between all variables. Results: mothers age at birth was most strongly associated with increase in consumption. The ban on selling alcoholic beverages at petrol station was associated with a decrease in consumption. The linear regression of harms did not show any relation between alcohol policy measures and harms. The ANN-analyses indicate a very high interconnectedness between all variables allowing no causal inferences. Exceptions are the relation between price of beer and wine and the consumption of these beverages and the relation between a decrease in transport mortality and the increased use of breathalyzers tests and a restriction of paracommercial selling. Conclusions: unplanned factors are most strongly associated with per capita consumption and harms. ANN-analysis indicates that price of alcoholic beverages, breath testing, and restriction of sales may have had some influence. The study's limitations are noted.

Analyzing the Effect of Selected Control Policy Measures and SocioDemographic Factors on Alcoholic Beverage Consumption in Europe within the AMPHORA Project: Statistical Methods

This paper describes the methods used to investigate variations in total alcoholic beverage consumption as related to selected control intervention policies and other socioeconomic factors (unplanned factors) within 12 European countries involved in the AMPHORA project. The analysis presented several critical points: presence of missing values, strong correlation among the unplanned factors, long-term waves or trends in both the time series of alcohol consumption and the time series of the main explanatory variables. These difficulties were addressed by implementing a multiple imputation procedure for filling in missing values, then specifying for each country a multiple regression model which accounted for time trend, policy measures and a limited set of unplanned factors, selected in advance on the basis of sociological and statistical considerations are addressed. This approach allowed estimating the “net” effect of the selected control policies on alcohol consumption, but not the association between each unplanned factor and the outcome.

Implications of reef fish movement from unreported artificial reef sites in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Artificial reefs were deployed in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) by the state of Florida's marine fisheries agency but not reported to the public in an attempt to create no-harvest refuges for exploited fishes. As part of a broader examination of the efficacy of this approach, a tagging study was conducted at a subset (n=9) of these unreported artificial reefs to examine the likelihood that reef fishes would remain associated with them and to test factors affecting species-specific movement. Quarterly tagging trips (n=12) were made between March 2005 and December 2007 during which 3109 fish among 12 species were tagged with internal anchor tags. Red snapper (Lutjanus campechanus, n=2114), gray triggerfish (Balistes capriscus, n=267), and groupers (Family: Serranidae, n=148), were among the most frequently tagged fishes. Eighty-six fish were recaptured on subsequent tagging trips and fishermen reported 249 recaptures caught away from study sites. Mean (SD) distance moved among recaptures with reported recapture location was 37.1 (6.6) km for red snapper (n=173), 8.8 (3.1)km for gray triggerfish (n=47), and 25.2 (14.9)km for groupers (n=26). During the study, a hurricane passed over the study area, thus adding an unplanned factor to movement analyses. Fish size, reef depth, time free, and hurricane exposure significantly affected the likelihood of red snapper movement (p<0.020), but only fish size significantly affected distance moved (p=0.036). No factors significantly affected gray triggerfish movement, and low sample size precluded statistical tests of grouper movement. Overall, results indicate that large scale (>100km) red snapper movement was not dependent on hurricane occurrence, while gray triggerfish displayed mostly limited (<10km) movement irrespective of factors tested. The scale of movement observed suggests the efficacy of unreported artificial reefs to serve as no-harvest refuges is doubtful, especially when regional fishing mortality is high. Marine protected areas may be an effective alternative approach to facilitate the recovery of overfished stocks, but would need to be expansive to account for reef fish movement.

The Role of Social Context and Serendipitous Events in Career Decision Making

The role of contextual and unplanned factors on career decision-making was explored. Six hundred and fifty one university students at all levels were surveyed to collect data on career intentions, current enrolments, perceptions of influence of family, friends, teachers and the media, the role of serendipitous events and the education and current work of their family members. Results indicated that students perceived family and teachers to be significant influences on their career decisions. Furthermore, distal influences such as the media and web-based information were also significant. Students’ current course enrolments and career intentions were significantly more likely to be in interest categories congruent with their father’s job. Unplanned and serendipitous events were very commonly perceived to influence career decisions. The results are interpreted as providing support for an open systems theory of career decision-making. Practical counselling and future research implications are discussed.

Factors Perceived to Influence Dietary Fat Reduction Behaviors

Dietary change is an inherently complex process. Although dietary fat reduction is an important issue in nutrition education, factors facilitating this type of change have not been fully examined. By accumulating information from individuals who have already been successful in initiating and maintaining dietary fat reduction, practical means of assisting others can be learned. This study collected information from 155 participants between the ages of 30 and 55. Participants were included if they reported the initiation of sustained dietary fat reduction strategies beginning at least 5 years prior to recruitment. Data used to examine individual patterns of dietary fat reduction were collected via in-depth, semistructured, retrospective interviews. Qualitative analyses identified 134 factors that played a role in facilitating the adoption of multiple fat reduction strategies. The factors identified were further classified into two categories: unplanned and planned. Unplanned factors were defined as life events or occurrences that are not nor should they be intentionally included in one's life as a means of dietary improvement (e.g., market influence, health issues, disease diagnosis). Planned factors were defined as occurrences often intentionally included in one's life to facilitate dietary change (e.g., going on a weight loss diet, acquiring an appliance, making a resolution).They frequently resulted from mediation by an unplanned factor.These factors can be used to help nutrition educators identify specific times conducive to initiating dietary change, as well as techniques for facilitating dietary fat reduction.

BY ACCIDENT OR DESIGN: Some Lessons from Technology Led Local Economic Development Initiatives

The experiences of the Japanese technopolis program and British science parks are evaluated with a view of identifying the extent to which the success of technology led local economic development initiatives is due to accident, in the form of largely unplanned factors, or design in the form of planned local initiatives. Reference is made not only to general studies of the two initiatives but also to detailed case study material relating to the Shinanogawa/Nagaoka technopolis in Japan and Cambridge Science Park in Britain. The findings of the studies support the view that technology led initiatives must be regarded as essentially facilitating mechanisms which, in the right circumstances, can play a useful role in promoting local economic development.