United States Trade Research Articles

The Dark Matter of Bilateral Preferential Margins: An Assessment of the Effect of US Tariffs

This article aimed to quantify the impact of United States (US) trade policies and assess how changes in tariff margins will affect imports to the US. To do that, we estimated trade elasticities by sector using a gravity structural model, computed US preference margins on a bilateral basis, and investigated alternative scenarios for properly measuring the effects of US trade agreements on international trade. Results showed that the removal of all preferences might lead to a negative net effect of $41,202 million (2% of predicted trade), indicating that the actual US structure of tariffs generates a trade diversion to less efficient exporters and destroys trade flows, even if the impact differs by sector.

An Intimate Economy: Enslaved Women, Work, and America's Domestic Slave Trade

In An Intimate Economy: Enslaved Women, Work, and America's Domestic Slave Trade, Alexandra J. Finley reconstructs the connections between the domestic, economic, and sexual labor that enslaved women performed in the making of the domestic slave trade in the antebellum American South. Finley uncovers the experiences of a small group of enslaved women to explore how bondswomen's work propelled the economy of slavery at the height of the internal slave trade. In a journey that starts in Richmond, Virginia, and weaves through the cotton South to New Orleans, Louisiana, Finley delves into the ineluctable relationship between the domestic slave trade and enslaved women's labor, illuminating the complexities of Black women's lives as concubines, seamstresses, housekeepers, and maids. She argues that it was enslaved women who completed the essential work that kept slave traders wealthy and kept the slave trade functioning through the antebellum and Civil War eras. Through deploying the concepts of the sexual, domestic, and reproductive economies of slavery, Finley unpacks how enslaved women's domestic labor was hidden in plain sight and how their work enriched the men who owned and partnered with them.One of Finley's strengths in An Intimate Economy is her adeptness at uniting the personal stories of women who have historically been difficult to locate in the archive. Utilizing feminist and legal theories of the sexual economy, Finley traces the tethers of enslaved women's lives and does so without losing sight of their extraordinary and difficult circumstances. In each chapter, Finley shows that enslaved women experiences were entangled with white men who became rich during the spree for enslaved labor in the nineteenth century. These women made difficult choices about their survival—and the survival of their children—within slaveholding societies where enslavers valued them based on their gender, skills, color, and contributions to the domestic economy.Finley begins with Corinna Hinton, or Corinna Omohundro, an enslaved woman who lived in Richmond, Virginia, as the enslaved mistress, housekeeper, and partner of Richmond slave trader Silas Omohundro. To understand Hinton's proximity to Omohundro, Finley poses a provocative question: Is it possible to understand the relationship between Silas Omohundro and Corinna Hinton “in the absence of legal consent and personhood?” (p. 31). In other words, can we understand Corinna Hinton on her own terms, outside of her relationship with Omohundro? According to Finley, we can. Corinna Hinton made strategic choices for herself and her children, while living and working with Omohundro as his wife and the manager of his domestic affairs. Even if enslaved women such as Hinton were trafficked in the “fancy trade” and sold into sexual slavery, they found ways to carve out spaces for themselves to survive the traumas of slavery and the challenges of concubinage.Moreover, Finley explores how the domestic economy of slavery shaped enslaved women's lives in important ways. Drawing attention to the enslaved seamstresses who worked for Richmond slave trader Hector Davis, Finley shows how enslaved women sewed the clothing that enslaved people wore on the auction block. The enslavers that Finley highlights increasingly relied on enslaved women to make the clothing for the enslaved people being sold to support their profits from slavery.Throughout An Intimate Economy, Finley tracks the connections between enslaved women, their enslavers, and the legality of enslavers’ property rights over their enslaved concubines and partners. She approaches the intersections of sexual violence, agency, and resistance with a nuance that underlies her understanding of the complexities of enslaved women's lives. Sarah Ann Conner and Lucy Ann Cheatham are examples. Conner was the enslaved concubine of Theophilus Freeman, the New Orleans slave trader who sold Solomon Northup into slavery in Louisiana. In examining Conner's life, Finley stays attuned to the ways in which enslaved women made choices about how to survive the violence and unpredictability of slavery. Lucy Ann Cheatham was enslaved in Richmond and New Orleans, serving as a housekeeper and the partner for her enslaver. For Conner and Cheatham, their roles within the domestic sphere of their enslavers reveal the convergence of the sexual and domestic economies of slavery in antebellum America.Ultimately, Finley shows how enslaved women's sexual labor was both visible and veiled. In an analysis that shows the increased contributions of enslaved women to the economy of slavery in the antebellum era, Finley deftly restores enslaved women to the center of the domestic slave trade in America. She reminds us of the value of women's work in nineteenth-century America, never losing sight of the extractive nature of American slavery and American capitalism. Although the contributions of enslaved women were often hidden, Finley convincingly shows that the sexual economy of slavery for enslaved women was subsumed under the umbrella of domestic labor.

The Consequences of US-China Trade War on Global Economic growth

Trade has a huge influence on the economic growth of a country, due to globalization no country could fulfil their national needs and desire without international trade. The aims of this study are to measuring and analyzing the consequences of the United States and China trade war on the United States and China economic growth and global economic growth. To achieve this objective, the study employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model depending on monthly data from 2016 M1 to 2019 M12. The data were obtained from Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) and The United States Census Bureau (USCB), Economic indicators. The result of the study shows that: Dummy variable (D) indicates the tariff rate has a positive and statistically significant effect on United States GDP. However, the effect of tariff rate (D) on the Chines GDP is negative and statistically significant. Likewise, tariff rate(D) harms global GDP, thus if tariff rate (D) changes by 1%, the global GDP decreases by (0.005). In conclusion, increasing tariff rates from both countries (the U.S and China) has negative consequences on their economic growth and the global GDP.

THE UNITED STATES’ MONETARY POLICY SPILLOVER EFFECT AGAINST RUPIAH -US DOLLAR EXCHANGE DURING USA – CHINA TRADE WAR

The United States (US) and China trade war has resulted in global economic crisis. This causes spillover effects to other countries due to the policies imposed by the two big countries. The objective of the research is to analyze the impact of Fed Fund Rate, as the monetary policy of the US, as well as other variables on the Rupiah -US Dollar Exchange Rate. The method used in this analysis is the Error Correction Model with time series data. The result indicates that in the long run the depreciation of Rupiah -US Dollar exchange rate is influenced by the increase of Fed Fund Rate, while there is no impact of Fed Fund Rate on Rupiah -US Dollar Exchange Rate in the short run. The results suggests that the US monetary policy during the trade war in form of the increase of Fed Fund Rate in long term has resulted spillover effect in Indonesia i.e., the depreciation of the Rupiah – US Dollar exchange rate.

Entrelinhas

Neste artigo, é analisado como a China foi discutida nos documentos do Representante Comercial dos Estados Unidos (USTR) entre 2001 e 2016. A hipótese é que o USTR deixou de perceber a China como um “Estado normal” e passou a percebê-la como um “Estado adversário”, sendo o ponto de virada o período entre 2003 e 2005, no governo de George W. Bush. Utiliza-se a análise de conteúdo para testar a hipótese em dois documentos: a President’s Trade Policy Agenda e o Special 301 Report. Observa-se que desde o período de 2003-2005 as menções à China passaram de um nível normal para um nível extraordinário e o discurso do USTR começou a caracterizar a China de modo mais negativo, anunciando o uso de “todas as ferramentas disponíveis” para responder às práticas comerciais injustas da China. Conclui-se que há lastro empírico para a hipótese e que a percepção de que a China é uma “adversária comercial” dos Estados Unidos tem forte enraizamento burocrático.

Global merchandise and agricultural trade developments during WTO regime: Commercial crops performance

AbstractGlobal trade has increased the growth proportionally over the last two centuries. Trade increases the prosperity of nation, fueling economic growth, rising employment opportunities, reducing poverty, and raising the living standards of the people. The study period is from 1990–1991 to 2018–2019. Compound annual growth rate (CAGR), coefficient of variation, moving average method, terms of trade, and elasticity of total merchandise, agricultural, and commercial crops exports and imports were used to achieve objectives. The study revealed that agricultural trade shared very less percentage out of total merchandise trade in the world, that is, 7.55%. South America and South Africa (poor continent) have shown the highest percentage of agricultural commodities traded out of total merchandise trade. Richest continents such as Europe, North America, and Asia shared very less percentage of agricultural commodities traded to total merchandise trade. Globally, China, USA, and Germany highly expanded their trade. China and Republic of Korea were the largest exporting and importing countries of total traded goods. Brazil, Spain, and China were shown the highest significant growth potential of agricultural exports, whereas China, Canada, and USA have shown the highest growth rate of agricultural imports in the world during the study period. America was exporting more quantity of cotton, tea, rubber, and opium while importing tobacco and coffee. Asia was exporting more quantity of sugar crops and coffee while importing cotton, jute, opium, rubber, tea, and tobacco. Africa was exporting more quantity of cotton, jute, tea, and rubber while importing sugar crops, cocoa, tobacco, and coffee. Europe was exporting more quantity of tea, rubber, opium, tobacco, and coffee while importing cocoa. More quantity of opium by America and Europe; coffee by Europe; and sugar crops by Asia was exported with the highest price in the world. Terms of trade was favored for sugar crops, jute, opium, and coffee in the Africa; cocoa, opium, rubber, tea, and coffee in the Europe; and rubber in the America. Export price elasticity of sugar crops, cotton, jute, opium, rubber, and coffee in the America; jute in the Asia; cotton, rubber, and tobacco in the Africa; and sugar crops, opium, rubber, tea, tobacco, and coffee in the Europe was marginally greater than their imports. Countries governments that are growing commercial crops must give prominence in framing price policies for the cash crops. Governments should take action against the unfair competition existing in the international markets of cash crops especially for opium and tobacco. The study found that even Neoliberal globalization modern period also, developing countries and continents such as Africa, Latin America and South America trade economies are more depend on agriculture and developed countries more on manufactured sector. Developing countries and continents must design strategies and policies to promote manufactured sectors keeping agriculture sector self‐sufficiency.

United States’ Trade Policy and Future Outlook : Focus on United States Trade Representative and United States International Trade Commission

본 연구는 먼저 미국의 통상정책에 막대한 영향을 끼친 법으로 알려진 1930년 스무트 홀리 관세법, 1934년 상호무역협정법, 1962년 무역확대법, 1974년 무역법, 1988년 종합무역법에 대해 살펴보고자 하였다. 이를 바탕으로 트럼프･바이든 행정부에서 추진한 주요 보호무역조치를 알아보고 어떠한 특성이 있는지 확인하고자 하였다. 그 결과 미국 우선주의를 표방한 트럼프･바이든 행정부에서 추진한 대표적인 보호무역조치는 반덤핑관세 및 상계관세 부과, 세이프가드 조치, 국가안보를 이유로 1962년 무역확대법 제232조에 근거한 무역규제가 있음을 확인하였다. 또한 트럼프･바이든 행정부가 추진한 보호무역조치의 특성으로 중국뿐만 아니라 미국 동맹국을 비롯하여 다른 국가에도 미국의 무역규제의 압력이 증가되고 있으며 이를 극복할 방안으로 우리는 수출시장 다변화 및 공급망 재편의 필요성이 제기된다.First of all, this study tried to review the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act of 1934, Trade Expansion Act of 1962, Trade Reform Act of 1934, and Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act of 1988. These laws are known to have exerted considerable influence on the establishment of United States trade policy. In addition, this article contained information related to the protectionism measures pursued by the Trump and Biden administrations. The Trump and Biden administrations used the provisions of Section 232 under the Trade Expansion Act, as well as anti-dumping and countervailing duties. Especially, the Trump administration invoked rarely-used rationales for the enforcement of trade barriers by mentioning national security. And this article explained the current situation and characteristic of the Trump and Biden’s trade policy. To conclude, the Trump and Biden administrations has quickly adopted active and defiant approach to using United States trade laws as a protectionist tool.

High-tech trade as determinant of the US bilateral trade balance

ABSTRACT The relevance of high-tech industries has increased in recent years, particularly because of their effects on productivity and economic growth. However, the analysis of their relationship with the external sector is scarce, being a potential determinant of external imbalances. We examine the role of the share of high-tech exports and imports in the performance of the bilateral trade of the United States (US), characterized by a persistent trade deficit. The study focuses on bilateral data between the US and its 20 major partners, including developed and emerging countries, over the years 1990–2019. Accordingly, we developed dynamic panel data models based on the DIF GMM estimator, examining the relationship between bilateral trade balance and traditional regressors (relative income and exchange rate) and new explanatory variables (the high-tech composition of exports and imports). We found that the US high-tech composition of exports and imports has been changing over the last three decades, with the share of high-tech imports increasing and their exports decreasing. Furthermore, the regression results suggest that imports composed of high-tech goods are significant in explaining the US trade deficit, while the bilateral real exchange rate remains as a robust explanatory variable.

OFAC Sanctions Trends Under the New Biden Administration

Though dramatically different in terms of style and rhetoric on how to best lead the country, it remains to be seen how different United States trade policy between the current and former administration, and in particular President Biden’s use of Executive Orders to implement sanctions, will be used in shaping the global priorities of the United States. This article highlights the top countries facing the Department of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) activity under the new Presidency and what direct, and indirect, messages reveal themselves through these first actions by the Biden Administration. OFAC, Designations, Sanctions, Biden Administration, China, Burma, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Drug-Trafficking, Democracy

Isolating China: Deglobalisation and its Impact on Global Value Chains

As global value chains (GVCs) account for 80% of global trade, the revival of protectionism, amidst the looming trade tensions between United States and other trading partners, particularly China will dampen the international input–output relations. By using a multi-regional and multi-sectoral dynamic computable general equilibrium model, this study analyses China driven GVCs. The study explores the impact of tariff change on China and its major trading partners on economic variables like consumption, investment, government expenditure, exports and imports and sectors like electronic goods, coal, crude oil and machine equipment for the five-year period, that is, 2021–2025. GTAP 10 database has been used. The findings of the study suggest that although China’s dominance may diminish, yet it would continue to be one of the prominent players in GVC. Further, based on the results, the global economy can look forward to fragmented and locally oriented supply chains. At the sectoral level, the shorter supply chains would lead a further disjoint global trade system with a wider range of suppliers for similar products and hence increased regionalisation of production. JEL Codes: F10, F17, F60, F16, D58

Intellectual property and access to medicines: mapping public attitudes toward pharmaceuticals during the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) negotiation process

BackgroundTransparency and accountability are essential components at all stages of the trade negotiation process. This study evaluates the extent to which these principles were upheld in the United States’ public consultation process during the negotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), with respect to public comments about the pharmaceutical sector and access to medicines.ResultsThe public consultation process occurred before the start of official negotiations and was overseen by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). It included both written comments and oral testimony about US trade negotiation objectives. Of the written comments that specifically discussed issues relating to pharmaceuticals, the majority were submitted by private individuals, members of the pharmaceutical industry, and civil society organizations. Nearly all comments submitted by non-industry groups indicated that access to medicines was a priority issue in the renegotiated agreement, with specific reference to price affordability. By contrast, more than 50% of submissions received from members or affiliates of the pharmaceutical industry advocated for strengthened pharmaceutical intellectual property rights, greater regulatory data protections, or both.This study reveals mixed outcomes with respect to the level of transparency achieved in the US trade negotiation process. Though input from the public at-large was actively solicited, the extent to which these comments were considered in the content of the final agreement is unclear. A preliminary comparison of the analyzed comments with the USTR’s final negotiating objectives and the final text of the USMCA shows that several provisions that were advanced exclusively by the pharmaceutical industry and ultimately adopted in the final agreement were opposed by the majority of non-industry stakeholders.ConclusionsNegotiators could increase public transparency when choosing to advance one competing trade objective over another by actively providing the public with clear rationales for their negotiation positions, as well as details on how public comments are taken into account to form these rationales. Without greater clarity on these aspects, the public consultation process risks appearing to serve as a cursory government mechanism, lacking in accountability and undermining public trust in both the trade negotiation process and its outcomes.

Tracking the Environmental Consequences of Circular Economy over Space and Time: The Case of Close- and Open-Loop Recovery of Postconsumer Glass.

With the increasing globalization of waste-derived raw materials, region-oriented circular economy measures that stimulate resource recovery can cause far-reaching ripple effects in geographically dispersed markets, with unintended environmental effects. Identifying, quantifying, and characterizing these implications in a multiregional economic system remains challenging. This Policy Analysis aims to track these market-mediated environmental consequences over space and time with high material resolution. It explores a novel avenue of coupling consequential life cycle assessment and a time-series multiregional material-product chains model. The model is applied to two measures to recover postconsumer glass waste in the province of Quebec (Canada): improving closed-loop bottle-to-bottle resource recovery systems and deploying open-loop system for the marketing of glass powder as a supplementary cementitious material. Their environmental consequence trajectories (2030-2050) across a seven-industry and six-region competing symbiosis are examined. In both cases, cost-based optimized results highlight widespread adjustments in eastern North America trade patterns that are expanding over time in response to the coevolution of symbiotic industries. Between 55% and 94% of the environmental benefits are felt beyond Quebec borders. This information can help decision makers better anticipate the in- and cross-border scope of their measures and coordinate across jurisdictions to maximize overall environmental benefits.

Принятие решений и адаптация органов исполнительной власти. Пример тихоокеанской политики Б. Обамы

Introduction. In the Barack Obama’s government and administration’s decision-making process related to the Asia-Pacific, the interaction of specific officials, rather than general policy goals, played a determining role. Methods. Using the structural method, the history of everyday life, and adaptology, the author analyzed the hidden sides of decision-making process that influenced the official narrative. Analysis. The analysis is related to interaction with counterparts and behavioural strategies of the president, his administration, the State Department, the Department of Defense and the United States trade representative as the key centers involved in the struggle for policy elaboration. Results. Because of high competition among them and the desire of each center to stand for its position, the decision-making process has acquired several peculiarities. To mark their own position and reduce the influence of their competitors, the agencies developed their own strategies supported by created related concepts and narratives, opened new jobs, concealed their real attitudes towards each other as well as the real meanings of the strategies, and proposed new forms of interaction with non-state actors. To prevent the strengthening of other parts of the process Barack Obama and his advisors developed the concept of rebalance. Hillary Clinton responded with the concept of pivot. The Department of Defense, as these narratives struggled, was forced to side with the president, thereby disguising its true goals. United States trade representative R. Krik avoided the struggle and concentrated on adapting to objective conditions. As a result of the struggle, the Barack Obama’s government and administration have not developed a common regional strategy based on common goals and understanding of the region.

Let’s play tic-tac-toe: Confucius Institutes versus American Cultural Centres

China and the United States (US) have established respective cultural institutions in each other, namely the Confucius Institute and the American Cultural Centre. While they differ in the establishment background and management model, in their counterpart countries’ view, both Confucius Institutes and American Cultural Centres serve the function of public diplomacy as a ‘quasi-diplomatic agency’, attracting extensive political attention. When comparing the history of their developments in the US and China, a similar trend of ‘rise-to-fall’ and ‘positivity-to-negativity’ can be observed. The stagnation of American Cultural Centres in China and the crisis of Confucius Institutes in the US both originate from the same source — political pressure. The development paths of both institutions are closely related to the development and transformation of Sino–US political relations. In this process, China’s attitude is relatively moderate in an attempt to maintain the continuous development of a friendly bilateral relation, while the US is anxious about China’s rising status as its economic and strategic competitor, thereby adjusting its China policy and imposing rigid political controls over Confucius Institutes. Affected by the Sino–US trade dispute and the COVID-19 pandemic, Sino–US relations deteriorate further; accordingly, the future outlook of Confucius Institutes in the US is worrying. However, with abundant uncertainties, the future of the Confucius Institute remains to be further studied.

Agriculture and forest land use change in the continental United States: Are there tipping points?

SummaryLand use in the United States (US) is driven by multiple forces operating at the global level, such as income and population growth, yield and productivity improvement, trade policy, climate change, and changing diets. Future land use has implications for biodiversity, run-off, carbon storage, ecosystem values, agriculture, and the broader economy. We investigate those forces and their implications from a multisector, multisystem dynamics (MSD) perspective focused on understanding dynamics and resilience in complex interdependent systems. Historical trends show slight increases in grassland and natural forest areas and decreases in cropland. We project these trends to intensify under higher pressures for agriculture land and reduce under lower pressures, with no evidence of tipping points toward larger agricultural land abandonment or deforestation. However, US sectoral output and trade, fertilizer use, N2O and CH4 emissions from agriculture activities, and CO2 emissions from land use changes are substantially impacted under land use forcing scenarios.

US economic and trade sanctions against China: A loss-loss confrontation

The economic and trade sanctions implemented by the United States (US) against China have lasted for a few decades and the structural imbalance of the US–China trade relationship has ultimately been escalated to a trade war recently. We examine the economic impacts of US sanctions against China on both sponsor and target countries during the last 20 years. We find that such impacts have significantly changed over time. On one hand, US economic sanctions have gradually extended from China’s labour-intensive to high value-added products and they have largely slowed down China’s trade growth for the last decade. On the other hand, US consumers and businesses have faced higher prices and production costs for Chinese imports (or import substitutes) in the wake of the increasing US trade sanctions, leading to great deadweight losses to the sponsor country. In addition, US economic and trade sanctions against China have largely impacted other economies involved in US–China trade as well. The intermediary status of the Hong Kong SAR has been greatly challenged. Overall, US economic and trade sanctions have caused pain on both China and the US, but their impact on China (the target country) has been largely weakened.

Legal or unenforceable? Violations of trade regulations and the case of the Philippine Sailfin Lizard Hydrosaurus pustulatus (Reptilia: Squamata: Agamidae)

The Philippine Sailfin Lizard (Agamidae: Hydrosaurus pustulatus) is a nationally protected Philippine endemic species. It is threatened by habitat destruction, pollution and overexploitation for the domestic pet trade, yet less is known about the international component of the trade. Here we investigate the international trade in Hydrosaurus spp. (H. weberi, H. amboinensis, and H. pustulatus) with an emphasis on H. pustulatus. We analysed international seizures combined with international online sales and trade data for the United States of America (USA). The export of H. pustulatus from the Philippines has been prohibited since 1991, except under special circumstances, yet they continue to be traded internationally, and we found evidence for trade in Asia, Europe, and North America. Most of these animals, however, were declared to be captive-bred. While imports to and exports from the US consisted mostly of other species of Hydrosaurus, H. pustulatus was by far the most coveted species online, with prices significantly higher for H. pustulatus than any of the other species. While not many seizures have occurred outside the Philippines, even wild-caught individuals were found to be ‘legally’ imported to the USA – in apparent violation of the Lacey Act. We recommend H. pustulatus to be listed in CITES Appendix III, in order for countries other than the USA to have a legal basis to seize wild-caught animals trafficked from the Philippines and to monitor trade in captive-bred specimens. Further, we suggest the use of automated cross-referencing between imported species and the national protection status of the species’ native range states to ensure that legislation violations are detected at the point of import.

The United States’ Policy towards the World Trade Organization during the Presidency of Donald Trump

The United States’ Policy towards the World Trade Organization during the Presidency of Donald Trump
 The purpose of this article is to analyze the United States’ policy towards the World Trade Organization (WTO) during the presidency of Donald Trump. Given the stated aim, research questions allow to identify the significant priorities of American foreign policy within the Organization, trade policy challenges, and the current and future survival ofthe global exchange system. Hence, the article is focused on: the importance of the WTO for the global exchange system; the role and capabilities of the United States (US) in the Organization’s analysis; and identification of main priorities and challenges of the US foreign policy towards the WTO in the context of the current trade rivalry with China and itsimpact on the WTO’s future. The main hypothesis of the article indicates that the current US trade policy weakens the possibilities and further functioning of the WTO. The main theoretical perspective of the article is based on institutional liberalism and the theory of comparative advantage. The article has been developed by applying historical, institutional, and legal systemic and content analysis methods (in particular, government, WTO, and think tank reports and analyses).

U. S. FOREIGN TRADE RESTRICTIONS UNDER UNSTABLE DYNAMICS OF INTERNATIONAL TRAD E

The paper describes factors that lead to the United States trade restrictions, particularly export control at the end of the second decade; the challenges of the United States policy, prospects for international trade relations. World trade is expected to grow this year after reducing in the previous one. The outlook for trade development remains with a large degree of uncertainty due to economic, financial risks, effects of struggle against pandemia; national policies. The US trade restriction policies are in focus. Besides imposing import tariffs; controlling exports of software, sensitive equipment, technology has been transformed under Trump’s administration in the context of national security, foreign policy objectives. Limiting access to the most sensitive U.S. technology has been putting in practice along with new export controls on software; restrictions on the emerging and foundational technologies. Export Control Reform that was passed by Congress and signed into law by President Trump has determined a new stage in US policy and may bring more uncertainty as concerning relations with other countries.

World prospers China: Chinese private firms with lending before the China–United States trade war

ABSTRACT This research investigates whether the National 13th Five-Year Plan of China and economic-political uncertainty affects Chinese private firms on bank loan spreads. First, we find that banks charge a significantly lower loan spreads during the period, and slightly reverse the effect with higher economic-political uncertainty. Second, the non-Chinese lenders during the period charge lower loan spreads than Chinese banks. Finally, for private firms with lending from non-Chinese banks, the borrowers without enough search record obtain a favoured bank loan spread, and facilitate Chinese firms for the loan purpose of capital expenditures during the period. Overall, global banks prosper Chinese private firms due to China’s stable national policies.