United States Great Plains Research Articles

Ambrosia grayi as a new alien causal species in Israel: plant biology and chemical management.

Ambrosia grayi is a perennial weed native to northern Mexico, which can also be found in the Great Plains of the US. Outside the Americas, A. grayi has only been documented in Israel, where it is currently categorized as a casual species at advanced eradication stages. Here, we studied the plant biology and chemical weed management options of A. grayi. Only large achenes of A. grayi (~5% of all achenes) contain seeds; moreover, the viability of seeds extracted from large achenes was ~25%. Examination of plant anatomy revealed that underground vegetative segments show an anatomical structure of stems (rhizomes) with anomalous secondary growth. The optimal (night/day) temperature for the emergence of A. grayi rhizomes was 20/30 °C, and the emergence rate increased under elevated temperatures. Emergence may occur at different soil moisture content (25-60%); rhizomes were able to emerge even after 1 month of drought conditions (20%, 25% and 30%). Herbicide combinations, such as fluroxypyr + glufosinate, fluroxypyr + glyphosate, and glyphosate + saflufenacil + surfactant, were tested under quarantine conditions and showed high efficacy for the control of A. grayi. However, the efficiency of these treatments was highly correlated with plant growth stage. In Israel, the spread of A. grayi occurs mainly via rhizomes that can emerge under a wide range of temperatures and soil moisture conditions. Data regarding herbicide efficacy will aid in improving the eradication efforts taken by Israel's Plant Protection and Inspection Services. © 2024 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Tree Trunk Detection of Eastern Red Cedar in Rangeland Environment with Deep Learning Technique

Uncontrolled spread of eastern red cedar invades the United States Great Plains prairie ecosystems and lowers biodiversity across native grasslands. The eastern red cedar (ERC) infestations cause significant challenges for ranchers and landowners, including the high costs of removing mature red cedars, reduced livestock forage feed, and reduced revenue from hunting leases. Therefore, a fleet of autonomous ground vehicles (AGV) is proposed to address the ERC infestation. However, detecting the target tree or trunk in a rangeland environment is critical in automating an ERC cutting operation. A tree trunk detection method was developed in this study for ERC trees trained in natural rangeland environments using a deep learning-based YOLOv5 model. An action camera acquired RGB images in a natural rangeland environment. A transfer learning method was adopted, and the YOLOv5 was trained to detect the varying size of the ERC tree trunk. A trained model precision, recall, and average precision were 87.8%, 84.3%, and 88.9%. The model accurately predicted the varying tree trunk sizes and differentiated between trunk and branches. This study demonstrated the potential for using pretrained deep learning models for tree trunk detection with RGB images. The developed machine vision system could be effectively integrated with a fleet of AGVs for ERC cutting. The proposed ERC tree trunk detection models would serve as a fundamental element for the AGV fleet, which would assist in effective rangeland management to maintain the ecological balance of grassland systems.

Land and Atmosphere Conditions prior to Extreme Great Plains Low-Level Jets

Abstract The warm season in the United States Great Plains (GP) is characterized by frequent nocturnal low-level jets (LLJs). The GPLLJ serves as a major mechanism of atmospheric moisture transport, contributing to severe weather and precipitation in the region. A combination of synoptic and regional forcing modulates GPLLJ frequency and intensity. The GPLLJ has primarily been studied at the diurnal scale. We hypothesize that, due to the memory of the land surface, longer time scale variability associated with surface moisture also modulates GPLLJ intensity. This work identifies GPLLJ days from ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) wind data and isolates extremes using a peaks-over-threshold approach. Extreme GPLLJs are classified by geographic region and synoptic state. Composites of daily soil moisture anomalies show a preference for extreme GPLLJs to occur over anomalously dry soil. Critically, antecedent soil moisture anomalies emerge weeks before the extreme jet occurrence. The dry soil moisture signal coexists with clear skies and drying of the surface at the synoptic time scale. A diurnal PBL heat accumulation, which intensifies the buoyancy oscillation, is also present. The identification of a subseasonal dry anomaly suggests that, although the GPLLJ is generated by diurnally varying oscillations and intensified by synoptic-scale processes, the memory of the land surface can modulate the GPLLJ far beyond the diurnal and synoptic scale. Additionally, the location of the antecedent soil moisture anomalies corresponds with the eventual GPLLJ. The spatiotemporal characteristic of these antecedent anomalies suggests the potential for improved prediction of the GPLLJ activity.

Modulation of North American Heat Waves by the Tropical Atlantic Warm Pool

AbstractHeat waves are among the deadliest natural hazards affecting the United States (US). Therefore, understanding the physical mechanisms modulating their occurrence is essential for improving their predictions and future projections. Using observational data and model simulations, this study finds that the interannual variability of the tropical Atlantic warm pool (AWP, measured as the area enclosed by the 28.5°C sea surface temperature isotherm) modulates heat wave occurrence over the US Great Plains during boreal summer. For example, a larger than normal AWP enhances atmospheric convection over the Caribbean Sea, driving an upper tropospheric anticyclonic anomaly over the Gulf of Mexico and Great Plains, which strengthens subsidence, reduces cloud cover, and increases surface warming. This circulation anomaly thus weakens the Great Plains low‐level jet and associated moisture transport into the Great Plains, leading to drought conditions and increased heat wave occurrence for most of the US east of the Rockies.

Suitability of different environments for winter canola oil production in the United States of America

Including winter canola ( Brassica napus L.) crop into cereal-based crop rotations can diversify the current agricultural systems in the United States (US). In addition, canola can help to satisfy market demand for plant-based edible oil, thus better understanding of oil productivity of canola in the US production areas is relevant for further study. Canola seed oil concentration is a function of the genotype (G), environment (E), management (M), and their interaction (G × E × M). The overall aim of this research study was to identify suitable production environments with increased canola seed oil concentration and opportunities to increase cropland area in the US. The objectives of this research were: i) characterize the environmental variability of seed oil concentration in the National Winter Canola Variety Trials (NWCVT), ii) identify geographical regions and states within the continental US with potential for production of winter canola with high seed oil concentration and the link with yield, and iii) explore the potential development of varieties with stable high seed oil concentration and high yield. In this study, the E component accounted for 75% of the total variation in seed oil concentration, with the G factor only explaining 8%. Overall, seed oil concentration averaged 398 g kg -1 but ranged from 311 to 461 g kg -1 . The US Midwest and Great Plains regions were shown to have a greater frequency of medium (> 389 g kg -1 ) and high canola seed oil concentration (> 411 g kg -1 ). Genotypic variation for both seed oil concentration and yield was found with an opportunity to achieve high oil and yield under varying environments. Our findings suggests that there is significant potential to further expand the area of canola cropland to increase oil productivity and focus should be on breeding high yielding varieties with stable high seed oil concentration. • Environment explained most of the oil concentration variability in winter canola. • Precipitation and photothermal quotient explain the oil concentration variability. • Large winter canola production area with potential for high oil concentration in US. • Potential to develop varieties with stable high seed oil concentration and yield.

Balancing future renewable energy infrastructure siting and associated habitat loss for migrating whooping cranes

The expansion of human infrastructure has contributed to novel risks and disturbance regimes in most ecosystems, leading to considerable uncertainty about how species will respond to altered landscapes. A recent assessment revealed that whooping cranes (Grus americana), an endangered migratory waterbird species, avoid wind-energy infrastructure during migration. However, uncertainties regarding collective impacts of other types of human infrastructure, such as power lines, variable drought conditions, and continued construction of wind energy infrastructure may compromise ongoing recovery efforts for whooping cranes. Droughts are increasing in frequency and severity throughout the whooping crane migration corridor, and the impacts of drought on stopover habitat use are largely unknown. Moreover, decision-based analyses are increasingly advocated to guide recovery planning for endangered species, yet applications remain rare. Using GPS locations from 57 whooping cranes from 2010 through 2016 in the United States Great Plains, we assessed habitat selection and avoidance of potential disturbances during migration relative to drought conditions, and we used these results in an optimization analysis to select potential sites for new wind energy developments that minimize relative habitat loss for whooping cranes and maximize wind energy potential. Drought occurrence and severity varied spatially and temporally across the migration corridor during our study period. Whooping cranes rarely used areas <5 km from human settlements and wind energy infrastructure under both drought and non-drought conditions, and <2 km from power lines during non-drought conditions, with the lowest likelihood of use near wind energy infrastructure. Whooping cranes differed in their selection of wetland and cropland land cover types depending on drought or non-drought conditions. We identified scenarios for wind energy expansion across the migration corridor and in select states, which are robust to uncertain drought conditions, where future loss of highly selected stopover habitats could be minimized under a common strategy. Our approach was to estimate functional habitat loss while integrating current disturbances, potential future disturbances, and uncertainty in drought conditions. Therefore, dynamic models describing potential costs associated with risk-averse behaviors resulting from future developments can inform proactive conservation before population impacts occur.

Practice cost and size differences in invasive plant management strategies: An empirical analysis of US Great Plains states

Grassland conservation of the Conservation Stewardship Program in the United States (US) is one of the largest cost-sharing initiatives for protecting grazing land from invasive and woody plants. The practice cost and unit size of various invasive and woody plant management strategies, such as mulching, brush management, and prescribed burning, are different from state to state. We aimed to compare and examine the association between practice cost ($/acre[ac]) and standard unit size of practice (acre) of mulching, brush management, and prescribed burning strategies in nine US Great Plains states, including Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming. We estimated state-level average practice cost and unit size of mulching, brush management, and prescribed burning strategies using the conservation payment data of the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) to determine a cost-minimizing management strategy. A linear regression model was used to understand the association between practice cost and unit size of different management strategies and states. Practice cost and unit size differ by invasive and woody plant management strategy and Great Plains state. In the nine US Great Plains states, prescribed burning costs less on average ($29/ac) than mulching ($222/ac) and brush management ($152/ac) but covers a larger area on average (239 acres/unit) than mulching (3.19 acres/unit) and brush management (132 acres/unit). From the regression results, we also find a significantly negative association between practice cost and unit size (Coef. = -0.18, p<0.05). For prescribed burning, the practice cost is significantly lower (Coef. = -148.70, p<0.00) than the reference category of mulching. Our findings imply a policy idea that prescribed burning could be a cost-minimizing and high-coverage strategy than brush management in managing woody invasion under existing cost-unit size framework. Alternatively, expanding the typical unit sizes of a small covering strategy such as mulching could be another policy option for further assessment.

Tick infestation of birds across a gradient of urbanization intensity in the United States Great Plains

Migratory birds play an important role in large-scale movements of ticks and tick-borne pathogens, yet little is known about tick infestation of resident birds (e.g., non-migratory species and migratory species during the breeding season), especially in urban ecosystems. We captured birds during the breeding season in parks and greenspaces in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA, to evaluate overall tick infestation patterns and to determine if urbanization influences infestation prevalence (the proportion of birds parasitized) and intensity (the number of ticks on infested birds). Of 459 birds, 111 (24.2%) had ≥ 1 tick, a high proportion of infestation compared with past North American studies. The most frequently infested species were Carolina Wren (Thryothorus ludovicianus; 56%), Brown Thrasher (Toxostoma rufum; 37%), and Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis; 27%). The Lone Star Tick (Amblyomma americanum) comprised half (51%; n = 322) of all ticks on birds; other species sampled included Gulf Coast Tick (A. maculatum) (36%) and Rabbit Tick (Haemaphysalis leporispalustris) (13%). Urbanization intensity (i.e., the percentage of developed land around sites) was inversely related to infestation prevalence for all birds combined and for Carolina Wren, but intensity of infestation was unrelated to urbanization. Our results suggest that non-migratory and migratory birds during sedentary periods are important carriers of ticks in urban areas, and that tick infestation patterns can be influenced by the level of urbanization in the surrounding landscape. Clarifying how urban birds influence tick populations, and how urbanization shapes bird-tick interactions, will increase understanding of tick-borne disease ecology in urban ecosystems.

On the Relationship of Cold Pool and Bulk Shear Magnitudes on Upscale Convective Growth in the Great Plains of the United States

Upscale convective growth remains a poorly understood aspect of convective evolution, and numerical weather prediction models struggle to accurately depict convective morphology. To better understand some physical mechanisms encouraging upscale growth, 30 warm-season convective events from 2016 over the United States Great Plains were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to identify differences in upscale growth and non-upscale growth environments. Also, Bryan Cloud Model (CM1) sensitivity tests were completed using different thermodynamic environments and wind profiles to examine the impact on upscale growth. The WRF simulations indicated that cold pools are significantly stronger in cases that produce upscale convective growth within the first few hours following convective initiation compared to those without upscale growth. Conversely, vertical wind shear magnitude has no statistically significant relationship with either MCS or non-MCS events. This is further supported by the CM1 simulations, in which tests using the WRF MCS sounding developed a large convective system in all tests performed, including one which used the non-MCS kinematic profile. Likewise, the CM1 simulations of the non-upscale growth event did not produce an MCS, even when using the MCS kinematic profile. Overall, these results suggest that the near-storm and pre-convective thermodynamic environment may play a larger role than kinematics in determining upscale growth potential in the Great Plains.

Migrating Whooping Cranes avoid wind-energy infrastructure when selecting stopover habitat.

Electricity generation from renewable-energy sources has increased dramatically worldwide in recent decades. Risks associated with wind-energy infrastructure are not well understood for endangered Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) or other vulnerable Crane populations. From 2010 to 2016, we monitored 57 Whooping Cranes with remote-telemetry devices in the United States Great Plains to determine potential changes in migration distribution (i.e., avoidance) caused by presence of wind-energy infrastructure. During our study, the number of wind towers tripled in the Whooping Crane migration corridor and quadrupled in the corridor's center. Median distance of Whooping Crane locations from nearest wind tower was 52.1km, and 99% of locations were >4.3km from wind towers. A habitat selection analysis revealed that Whooping Cranes used areas ≤5.0km (95% confidence interval [CI]4.8-5.4) from towers less than expected (i.e., zone of influence) and that Whooping Cranes were 20 times (95% CI 14-64) more likely to use areas outside compared to adjacent to towers. Eighty percent of Whooping Crane locations and 20% of wind towers were located in areas with the highest relative probability of Whooping Crane use based on our model, which comprised 20% of the study area. Whooping Cranes selected for these places, whereas developers constructed wind infrastructure at random relative to desirable Whooping Crane habitat. As of early 2020, 4.6% of the study area and 5.0% of the highest-selected Whooping Crane habitat were within the collective zone of influence. The affected area equates to habitat loss ascribed to wind-energy infrastructure; losses from other disturbances have not been quantified. Continued growth of the Whooping Crane population during this period of wind infrastructure construction suggests no immediate population-level consequences. Chronic or lag effects of habitat loss are unknown but possible for long-lived species. Preferentially constructing future wind infrastructure outside of the migration corridor or inside of the corridor at sites with low probability of Whooping Crane use would allow for continued wind-energy development in the Great Plains with minimal additional risk to highly selected habitat that supports recovery of this endangered species.

Evaluating Landscape Degradation Along Climatic Gradients During the 1930s Dust Bowl Drought From Panchromatic Historical Aerial Photographs, United States Great Plains

The U.S. Great Plains (USGP) are some of the most productive rangelands globally and a significant carbon sink for the atmosphere, but grassland response to precipitation is highly variable and poorly constrained over time and space. There is a rich historical aerial photographic record of the USGP which provides an unparalleled view of past landscapes and allows for evaluation of surficial response to drought beyond the satellite record, such as during the 1930s Dust Bowl Drought (DBD). This study classified the extent and loci of surficial denudation from seamless mosaics of radiometrically-corrected and georectified digitized aerial negatives acquired in the late 1930s from six counties distributed across USGP ecoregions. The dominant sources of degradation found for sites east of the 100th meridian are cultivated fields and fluvial deposits, associated with woody vegetation response to water availability in uncultivated areas. For sites to the west, denuded surfaces are predominantly eolian sandsheets and dunes, correlated with intensity of drought conditions and reduced plant diversity. Discrete spatial signatures of the drought are observed not only within the classically recognized southern Dust Bowl area, but also in the northern and central plains. Statistical analyses of site variability suggest landscape response to the DBD is most strongly influenced by the arid–humid divide and severity of precipitation and temperature anomalies. With a projected increase 21st century aridity, eolian processes cascading across western grasslands, like during the Dust Bowl, may significantly impact future dust particle emission and land and carbon storage management.

Primary Atmospheric Drivers of Pluvial Years in the United States Great Plains

Abstract Precipitation variability has increased in recent decades across the Great Plains (GP) of the United States. Drought and its associated drivers have been studied in the GP region; however, periods of excessive precipitation (pluvials) at seasonal to interannual scales have received less attention. This study narrows this knowledge gap with the overall goal of understanding GP precipitation variability during pluvial periods. Through composites of relevant atmospheric variables from the ECMWF twentieth-century reanalysis (ERA-20C), key differences between southern Great Plains (SGP) and northern Great Plains (NGP) pluvial periods are highlighted. The SGP pluvial pattern shows an area of negative height anomalies over the southwestern United States with wind anomalies consistent with frequent synoptic wave passages along a southward-shifted North Pacific jet. The NGP pattern during pluvial periods, by contrast, depicts anomalously low heights in the northwestern United States and an anomalously extended Pacific jet. Analysis of daily heavy precipitation events reveals the key drivers for these pluvial events, namely, an east–west height gradient and associated stronger poleward moisture fluxes. Therefore, the results show that pluvial years over the GP are likely driven by synoptic-scale processes rather than by anomalous seasonal precipitation driven by longer time-scale features. Overall, the results present a possible pathway to predicting the occurrence of pluvial years over the GP and understanding the causes of GP precipitation variability, potentially mitigating the threats of water scarcity and excesses for the public and agricultural sectors.

Delineating and identifying long-term changes in the whooping crane (Grus americana) migration corridor.

Defining and identifying changes to seasonal ranges of migratory species is required for effective conservation. Historic sightings of migrating whooping cranes (Grus americana) have served as sole source of information to define a migration corridor in the Great Plains of North America (i.e., Canadian Prairies and United States Great Plains) for this endangered species. We updated this effort using past opportunistic sightings from 1942–2016 (n = 5,055) and more recent (2010–2016) location data from 58 telemetered birds (n = 4,423) to delineate migration corridors that included 50%, 75%, and 95% core areas. All migration corridors were well defined and relatively compact, with the 95% core corridor averaging 294 km wide, although it varied approximately ±40% in width from 170 km in central Texas to 407 km at the international border of the United States and Canada. Based on historic sightings and telemetry locations, we detected easterly movements in locations over time, primarily due to locations west of the median shifting east. This shift occurred from northern Oklahoma to central Saskatchewan at an average rate of 1.2 km/year (0.3–2.8 km/year). Associated with this directional shift was a decrease in distance of locations from the median in the same region averaging -0.7 km/year (-0.3–-1.3 km/year), suggesting a modest narrowing of the migration corridor. Changes in the corridor over the past 8 decades suggest that agencies and organizations interested in recovery of this species may need to modify where conservation and recovery actions occur. Whooping cranes showed apparent plasticity in their migratory behavior, which likely has been necessary for persistence of a wetland-dependent species migrating through the drought-prone Great Plains. Behavioral flexibility will be useful for whooping cranes to continue recovery in a future of uncertain climate and land use changes throughout their annual range.

Precipitation Dynamical Downscaling Over the Great Plains

AbstractDetailed, regional climate projections, particularly for precipitation, are critical for many applications. Accurate precipitation downscaling in the United States Great Plains remains a great challenge for most Regional Climate Models, particularly for warm months. Most previous dynamic downscaling simulations significantly underestimate warm‐season precipitation in the region. This study aims to achieve a better precipitation downscaling in the Great Plains with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. To this end, WRF simulations with different physics schemes and nudging strategies are first conducted for a representative warm season. Results show that different cumulus schemes lead to more pronounced difference in simulated precipitation than other tested physics schemes. Simply choosing different physics schemes is not enough to alleviate the dry bias over the southern Great Plains, which is related to an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the central and western parts of continental U.S. in the simulations. Spectral nudging emerges as an effective solution for alleviating the precipitation bias. Spectral nudging ensures that large and synoptic‐scale circulations are faithfully reproduced while still allowing WRF to develop small‐scale dynamics, thus effectively suppressing the large‐scale circulation anomaly in the downscaling. As a result, a better precipitation downscaling is achieved. With the carefully validated configurations, WRF downscaling is conducted for 1980–2015. The downscaling captures well the spatial distribution of monthly climatology precipitation and the monthly/yearly variability, showing improvement over at least two previously published precipitation downscaling studies. With the improved precipitation downscaling, a better hydrological simulation over the trans‐state Oologah watershed is also achieved.

Parcels versus pixels: modeling agricultural land use across broad geographic regions using parcel-based field boundaries

ABSTRACTLand use and land cover (LULC) change occurs at a local level within contiguous ownership and management units (parcels), yet LULC models primarily use pixel-based spatial frameworks. The few parcel-based models being used overwhelmingly focus on small geographic areas, limiting the ability to assess LULC change impacts at regional to national scales. We developed a modified version of the Forecasting Scenarios of land use change model to project parcel-based agricultural change across a large region in the United States Great Plains. A scenario representing an agricultural biofuel scenario was modeled from 2012 to 2030, using real parcel boundaries based on contiguous ownership and land management units. The resulting LULC projection provides a vastly improved representation of landscape pattern over existing pixel-based models, while simultaneously providing an unprecedented combination of thematic detail and broad geographic extent. The conceptual approach is practical and scalable, with potential use for national-scale projections.

Determinants of Motives for Land Use Decisions at the Margins of the Corn Belt

The extent of United States Great Plains grass agriculture has ebbed and flowed over decades in response to market incentives, government policies, technological innovations and weather patterns. Our thesis is that the land most responsive to these drivers is at the economic margin between grass-based production and cropping. Much of the eastern Dakotas is such an area, primarily under crop-based agriculture although grass remains an important land use. We surveyed land operators in the area on their views about motivators for land use choices. Their views are largely consistent with the economic margin viewpoint. The importance of crop output prices, crop input prices, innovations in cropping equipment and weather patterns on land use decisions grow as one moves north toward the economic margin. Land in more highly sloped areas is more sensitive to crop prices and crop insurance policies. Consistent with human capital theory, older operators are generally less responsive to factors that affect land use. Those renting more land, being more exposed to market forces, are more responsive. As farm size increases, respondents declared higher land use sensitivity to policy issues and technological innovations, suggesting that scale effects render land units more sensitive to land use change drivers.

Long‐term analysis of the asynchronicity between temperature and precipitation maxima in the United States Great Plains

ABSTRACTAgriculture is a critical industry to the economy of the Great Plains (GP) region of North America and sensitive to change in weather and climate. Thus, improved knowledge of meteorological and climatological conditions during the growing season and associated variability across spatial and temporal scales is important. A distinct climate feature in the GP is the asynchronicity (AS) between the timing of temperature and precipitation maxima. This study investigated a long‐term observational data set to quantify the AS and to address the impacts of climate variability and change. Global Historical Climate Network Daily (GHCN‐Daily) data were utilized for this study; 352 GHCN‐Daily stations were identified based on specific criteria and the dates of the precipitation and temperature maxima for each year were identified at daily and weekly intervals. An asynchronous difference index (ADI) was computed by determining the difference between these dates averaged over each decade. Analysis of daily and weekly ADI revealed two physically distinct regimes of ADI (positive and negative), with comparable shifts in the timing of both the maximum of precipitation and temperature over all six states within the GP examined when comparing the two different regimes. Time series analysis of decadal average ADI yielded moderate shifts (∼5 to 10 days from linear regression analysis) in ADI in several states with increased variability occurring over much of the study region.

Airborne quantification of upper tropospheric NOx production from lightning in deep convective storms over the United States Great Plains

AbstractThe reported range for global production of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) by lightning remains large (e.g., 32 to 664 mol NOx flash−1), despite incorporating results from over 30 individual laboratory, theoretical, and field studies since the 1970s. Airborne and ground‐based observations from the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry experiment in May and June 2012 provide a new data set for calculating moles of NOx produced per lightning flash, P(NOx), in thunderstorms over the United States Great Plains. This analysis utilizes a combination of in situ observations of storm inflow and outflow from three instrumented aircraft, three‐dimensional spatial information from ground‐based radars and satellite observations, and spatial and temporal information for intracloud and cloud‐to‐ground lightning flashes from ground‐based lightning mapping arrays. Evaluation of two analysis methods (e.g., a volume‐based approach and a flux‐based approach) for converting enhancements in lightning‐produced NOx from volume‐based mixing ratios to moles NOx flash−1 suggests that both methods equally approximate P(NOx) for storms with elongated anvils, while the volume‐based approach better approximates P(NOx) for storms with circular‐shaped anvils. Results from the more robust volume‐based approach for three storms sampled over Oklahoma and Colorado during DC3 suggest a range of 142 to 291 (average of 194) moles NOx flash−1 (or 117–332 mol NOx flash−1 including uncertainties). Although not vastly different from the previously reported range for storms occurring in the Great Plains (e.g., 21–465 mol NOx flash−1), results from this analysis of DC3 storms offer more constrained upper and lower limits for P(NOx) in this geographical region.

El Niño evolution during the Holocene revealed by a biomarker rain gauge in the Galápagos Islands

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the largest perturbation to the climate system on an inter-annual time scale, but its evolution since the end of the last ice age remains debated due to the lack of unambiguous ENSO records lasting longer than a few centuries. Changes in the concentration and hydrogen isotope ratio of lipids produced by the green alga Botryococcus braunii, which blooms during El Niño rains in the Galápagos Islands, indicate that the early Holocene (9200–5600 yr BP) was characterized by alternating extremes in the intensity and/or frequency of El Niño events that lasted a century or more. Our data from the core of the ENSO region thus calls into question earlier studies that reported a lack of El Niño activity in the early Holocene. In agreement with other proxy evidence from the tropical Pacific, the mid-Holocene (5600–3500 yr BP) was a time of consistently weak El Niño activity, as were the Early Middle Ages (∼1000–1500 yr BP). El Niño activity was moderate to high during the remainder of the last 3500 years. Periods of strong or frequent El Niño tended to occur during peaks in solar activity and during extended droughts in the United States Great Plains linked to La Niña. These changing modes of ENSO activity at millennial and multi-centennial timescales may have been caused by variations in the seasonal receipts of solar radiation associated with the precession of the equinoxes and/or changes in solar activity, respectively.

Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts over the United States Great Plains

AbstractThis study investigates the influences of soil moisture and vegetation on 30 h convective precipitation forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting model over the United States Great Plains with explicit treatment of convection. North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data were used as initial and boundary conditions. We also used an adjusted soil moisture (uniformly adding 0.10 m3/m3 over all soil layers based on NARR biases) to determine whether using a simple observationally based adjustment of soil moisture forcing would provide more accurate simulations and how the soil moisture addition would impact meteorological parameters for different vegetation types. Current and extreme (forest and barren) land covers were examined. Compared to the current vegetation cover, the complete removal of vegetation produced substantially less precipitation, while conversion to forest led to small differences in precipitation. Adding 0.10 m3/m3 to the soil moisture with the current vegetation cover lowered the near surface temperature and increased the humidity to a similar degree as using a fully forested domain with no soil moisture adjustment. However, these temperature and humidity effects on convective available potential energy and moist enthalpy nearly canceled each other out, resulting in a limited precipitation response. Although no substantial changes in precipitation forecasts were found using the adjusted soil moisture, the similarity found between temperature and humidity forecasts using the increased soil moisture and those with a forested domain highlights the sensitivity of the model to soil moisture changes, reinforcing the need for accurate soil moisture initialization in numerical weather forecasting models.