Convention On Climate Change Research Articles

Methane emissions from China: a high-resolution inversion of TROPOMI satellite observations

Abstract. We quantify methane emissions in China and the contributions from different sectors by inverse analysis of 2019 TROPOMI satellite observations of atmospheric methane. The inversion uses as a prior estimate the latest 2014 national sector-resolved anthropogenic emission inventory reported by the Chinese government to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and thus serves as a direct evaluation of that inventory. Emissions are optimized with a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) at up to 0.25∘×0.3125∘ resolution. The optimization is done analytically assuming log-normally distributed errors on prior emissions. Errors and information content on the optimized estimates are obtained directly from the analytical solution and also through a 36-member inversion ensemble. Our best estimate for total anthropogenic emissions in China is 65.0 (57.7–68.4) Tg a−1, where parentheses indicate the uncertainty range determined by the inversion ensemble. Contributions from individual sectors include 16.6 (15.6–17.6) Tg a−1 for coal, 2.3 (1.8–2.5) for oil, 0.29 (0.23–0.32) for gas, 17.8 (15.1–21.0) for livestock, 9.3 (8.2–9.9) for waste, 11.9 (10.7–12.7) for rice paddies, and 6.7 (5.8–7.1) for other sources. Our estimate is 21% higher than the Chinese inventory reported to the UNFCCC (53.6 Tg a−1), reflecting upward corrections to emissions from oil (+147 %), gas (+61 %), livestock (+37 %), waste (+41 %), and rice paddies (+34 %), but downward correction for coal (−15 %). It is also higher than previous inverse studies (43–62 Tg a−1) that used the much sparser GOSAT satellite observations and were conducted at coarser resolution. We are in particular better able to separate coal and rice emissions. Our higher livestock emissions are attributed largely to northern China where GOSAT has little sensitivity. Our higher waste emissions reflect at least in part a rapid growth in wastewater treatment in China. Underestimate of oil emissions in the UNFCCC report appears to reflect unaccounted-for super-emitting facilities. Gas emissions in China are mostly from distribution, in part because of low emission factors from production and in part because 42 % of the gas is imported. Our estimate of emissions per unit of domestic gas production indicates a low life-cycle loss rate of 1.7 % (1.3 %–1.9 %), which would imply net climate benefits from the current “coal-to-gas” energy transition in China. However, this small loss rate is somewhat misleading considering China's high gas imports, including from Turkmenistan where emission per unit of gas production is very high.

Policy Needs for Implementation of REDD+ in India

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation-plus (REDD+) is a climate change mitigation tool recognized and adopted under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Implementation of REDD+ program is challenging, as it involves concurrent addressing of the objectives of forest biodiversity conservation, carbon stocks conservation and enhancement, respecting community rights, meeting aspirations for economic development, and avoiding displacement of emissions. The present study avails of the REDD+ Safeguard Information System (SIS) framework to deal with the challenge by considering the risks that arise for other objectives while meeting one, and thereby identifies five policy measures that help in meeting the said objectives and minimizing the risks. Such measures are: avoiding diversion of forestlands in biodiversity-rich areas; subjecting forestland encroachments to the jurisdiction of special courts; promoting native floral species; respecting forest use by communities & providing for them through Village Forest Committee micro-plans; and, strengthening the f unding of micro-plans. These measures though are part of conservation discourse for a long but lack a well-formalized structure. They have been evaluated on identified criteria for their effectiveness and associated risks.

Evaluating progress on loss and damage: an assessment of the Executive Committee of the Warsaw International Mechanism under the UNFCCC

ABSTRACT The Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts (WIM) was established in 2013, and its Executive Committee (ExCom) is developing a new five-year workplan. Seizing this opportune moment to assess institutional progress on the issue of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) we address two research questions: (1) Has the ExCom delivered on its workplans to date, and (2) how has the ExCom’s progress varied across thematic areas? Drawing on public documentary sources, we assess the effectiveness and timeliness of the delivery of activities across five thematic areas: slow onset events; non-economic losses; comprehensive risk management approaches; human mobility; and finance, action and support. We find that there has been progress across the thematic areas, but that it has varied in pace. Delays are associated with activities from the two-year workplan being moved into the first five-year workplan or being devolved to the more recently established expert groups. Our results also show that decisions from the Conference of the Parties (COP) or the COP serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA) have played a critical role in accelerating specific aspects of the ExCom’s work. Finally, we note that the ExCom is increasingly relying on its expert groups and their members to deliver many activities. This research advances our understanding of the nature and pace of progress on this issue, and raises new questions about the politics of global climate policy implementation. KEY POLICY INSIGHTS The WIM ExCom’s workplans are characterized by broad goals and are ambiguous about start dates and deadlines. To enhance accountability, future workplans would benefit from clearly defined objectives, outcomes, and timelines. The workplans do not seem to constitute strong commitments: Parties make use of COP/CMA decisions to strengthen the workplans by mandating specific activities or deadlines, adding new activities and prioritizing among existing ones. The politics of implementation merits greater attention: wider political dynamics around loss and damage shape the pace of the ExCom’s supposedly technical work. One example is the delayed establishment of the expert group on action and support.

Climate justice for small island developing states: identifying appropriate international financing mechanisms for loss and damage

ABSTRACT The inclusion of Article 8 in the 2015 Paris Agreement was, in part, an achievement of the advocacy efforts of small island developing states (SIDS) that sought recognition of climate-related loss and damage (L&D) in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). However, when a decision of the Conference of the Parties established that Article 8 of the Agreement does not involve or provide a basis for any liability or compensation, SIDS were left with limited options for financing L&D through the UNFCCC, delaying needed climate justice in view of their negligible contribution to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Since then, several studies have evaluated a range of L&D financing options but without explicitly accounting for whether they can deliver justice for SIDS. In this article, we qualitatively analyze the appropriateness of five of the international financial mechanisms that scholars have argued should be urgently considered by the Executive Committee of the Warsaw International Mechanism under the UNFCCC – levies on (1) airline travel, (2) fossil fuel extraction, (3) GHG emissions, (4) bunker fuel usage, and (5) financial transactions. Our results indicate that no single mechanism will deliver the justice that SIDS need but that, of the five mechanisms, airline travel levies and fossil fuel extraction levies are likely to be the most appropriate. Going forward, and as climate-related weather events intensify, a suite of fair, dependable, feasible, and suitable L&D financial mechanisms will be needed to better account for the special circumstances of SIDS. Key policy insights A specialized international L&D financing facility that is fair, dependable, feasible, and suitable for the special circumstances of SIDS is urgently needed. Inaction from establishing a specialized L&D financing facility will further burden particularly vulnerable countries, such as SIDS, that face the brunt of climate change impacts. Levies on airline travel and fossil fuel extraction would most appropriately account for and meet the needs of SIDS from a climate justice perspective. Any international financial facility should support strengthening governance, increasing compliance, and ensuring that flows are just.

From regime‐building to implementation: Harnessing the UN climate conferences to drive climate action

AbstractThe gap between the internationally agreed climate objectives and tangible emissions reductions looms large. We explore how the supreme decision‐making body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Conference of the Parties (COP), could develop to promote more effective climate policy. We argue that promoting implementation of climate action could benefit from focusing more on individual sectoral systems, particularly for mitigation. We consider five key governance functions of international institutions to discuss how the COP and the sessions it convenes could advance implementation of the Paris Agreement: guidance and signal, rules and standards, transparency and accountability, means of implementation, and knowledge and learning. In addition, we consider the role of the COP and its sessions as mega‐events of global climate policy. We identify opportunities for promoting sectoral climate action across all five governance functions and for both the COP as a formal body and the COP sessions as conducive events. Harnessing these opportunities would require stronger involvement of national ministries in addition to the ministries of foreign affairs and environment that traditionally run the COP process, as well as stronger involvement of non‐Party stakeholders within formal COP processes.This article is categorized under: Policy and Governance > International Policy Framework

A Conceptual Framework of Climate Action Needs of the Least Developed Party Countries of the Paris Agreement.

This article provides a framework for conceptualizing climate action needs grounded in the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of the least developed party countries (LDPCs) of the Paris Agreement (PA). It examines the NDCs of 35 LDPCs recorded in the NDC public registry of the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC). A grounded theory approach is adopted to assess what these countries need to materialize their NDCs under the PA. A conceptual framework of needs is figured out through an iterative process of data collection and analysis in three cycles: (1) open and in vivo coding; (2) axial coding; and (3) theoretical or selective coding. The data are analyzed with the help of NVIVO software. The results provide a verifiable framework of needs for climate action, which includes 55 saturated need factors extracted from the writing excerpts of NDCs, 17 sub-categories (axial codes) with climate finance and technology transfer as the most prominent, and 7 theoretical or selective categories with mobilize, educate, governmental, synergic, levels, equity, and public health. It provides a baseline for policy, research, and action from the developed party countries to uphold their PA obligations.

Agriculture and water resources: UNFCCC influence on Peruvian adaptation regulations to increase resilience against climate change

Agriculture and water resource are highly threatened due to climate change, increasing the probability of backsliding on almost every aspect of sustainable development worldwide. For instance, water resource distribution throughout the Peruvian territory is not homogeneous. Hydrometeorological phenomena also threaten it, so it is crucial for the agriculture sector and water management to increase resilience against climate change. The study aims to understand the Peruvian conduct under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) regime. Its influence in the Peruvian adaptation regulation and public institutions over the years and the interaction with the latest commitment to the UNFCCC related to climate change agriculture - water resources. The methodology used for the study was qualitative, delivered throughout a documentary analysis, and narrative design among scientific papers, UNFCCC documentation, and Peruvian regulation to weave the experience occurred and the sequences of the events to set up a general narrative. The results show that Peru has active participation in the UNFCCC, particularly under a neoliberalism approach. The convention pushed institutional and regulatory development of the Peruvian Government constantly. Also, after the Paris Agreement, one of the most important influences was the implementation of Law N° 30754 on climate change, which articulates all the regulations related to it, providing a national, more substantial legally-binding commitment. Finally, it is important for Peru to analyze the achievement of current adaptation actions and keep studying the impacts of climate change at a local level to develop a bottom-up approach for an effective policy formulation-implementation.

Climate negotiations: time to implement planetary health promises

Climate negotiations: time to implement planetary health promises

선박온실가스 배출규제의 국내 이행에 관한 연구

The Greenhouse gases(GHGs) concentration in the atmosphere is continuously increasing as GHGs generated by human activities have exceeded the natural absorption amount after the industrial revolution. As a result, the global warming phenomenon has accelerated, reaching levels that are threatening to humanity. Accordingly, the United Nations(UN) adopted the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Kyoto Protocol, and the Paris Agreement, and the International Maritime Organization(IMO) has already implemented technical and operational measures, and is striving to implement several other measures, including Market Based Measures. And currently, IMO and Repulic of Korea’s Government set a GHG reduction target and are making efforts to reduce GHG’s. However, the reality is that the domestic legislation related to the shipping industry cannot keep up with it. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to identify problems related to the domestic implementation of measurements to reduce greenhouse gass emmisions from ships and to suggest improvement measures.

The state of information infrastructure for global climate governance

PurposeThe world is facing global challenges that require international collaboration. This study aims to describe and analyze how digital technologies are applied in global governance to respond to such critical challenges.Design/methodology/approachThe authors apply an interpretive case study of climate reporting to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as a case of digitalization in global governance. It includes interviews with officials in the Swedish public administration and the UNFCCC secretariat to cover national and international levels. The authors describe the reporting process and analyze the role of information systems through the lens of information infrastructures.Findings“Information infrastructure” is a valuable instrument to understand digitalization in global governance as a complex interplay between information systems, information, standards, organizations, people and social structures. The level of sophistication is, however, basic with a large potential for improvement – for instance in analytical and communicative services to support evidence-based decision-making and assessment of progress.Research limitations/implicationsThe data collection is limited to one governance process: reporting. Future studies should complement the findings by broadening the scope to other processes. The authors propose that digital global governance is dependent on an effective information infrastructure, and that the five design principles by Hanseth and Lyytinen (2016) offer guidance when developing this.Practical implicationsThe results indicate a large unutilized potential of digital technologies to improve progress assessment, communicate more effectively with stakeholders and identify new ways of visualizing data to support decision making in global climate policy.Social implicationsUse of digital technologies, as suggested in the article, could strengthen the implementation capability of climate goals, which is of urgent need.Originality/valueWhile most research in digital governance considers the national or municipal level, this study provides empirical insight and theorization of digital technologies in a global governance setting.

Inter‐State climate technology transfer under the UNFCCC: A benefit‐sharing approach

AbstractThe use of the concept of fair and equitable benefit‐sharing has proliferated across a number of international environmental legal regimes in various contexts. However, its potential application to inter‐State obligations of financing, technology transfer and capacity‐building remains underexplored. This article aims to contribute to this theoretical discussion by assessing how the concept could be applied to technology transfer obligations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). While the UNFCCC's technology transfer obligations are framed within the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities, this article proposes that application of an additional legal principle of fair and equitable benefit‐sharing could not only be possible but also bring added value to the regime. Following an analysis of the concept's key features and the legal framework for technology transfer under the UNFCCC, the basis for conceptualizing inter‐State climate technology transfer as benefit‐sharing is examined. The potential significance and value of incorporating benefit‐sharing principles into this legal and policy context is then evaluated. From a procedural standpoint, it could reinforce the need to understand local perspectives and engage in collaborative approaches. In terms of its substantive implications, a benefit‐sharing lens could also inform and bridge understandings of equity, promote diversification of implementation approaches and encourage more transformative forms of technological capacity‐building.

The green climate fund and its shortcomings in local delivery of adaptation finance

ABSTRACT The Paris Agreement recognizes the important role that local level actors play in ensuring climate change adaptation that contributes to meeting the global temperature goal. As a financial mechanism of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the largest dedicated climate fund, the Green Climate Fund (GCF) is critical to achieving this goal. How GCF allocates its resources is therefore a critical area of research. This article assesses GCF’s commitment to the local delivery of adaptation finance and identifies the key barriers to GCF’s achievement of this commitment. The analysis finds that although GCF’s policies and communications fully commit to funding local level adaptation, three key barriers still prevent it from delivering finance to the local level. First, GCF lacks a unified framework for identifying and defining the local level, local actors, and local adaptation processes. Second, GCF exhibits limited transparency and accountability in relation to how approved funding for adaptation is spent, particularly for projects that claim to generate local level adaptation outcomes. Third, some Accredited Entities have limited experience and capacity for designing and implementing projects that deliver finance to the local level. This is because the local delivery of finance is not prioritized by GCF during the accreditation of entities or provision of readiness support to Accredited Entities. Our findings indicate limited evidence of GCF’s full operationalization of its commitment to supporting local adaptation. We recommend that GCF develop and apply a unified framework for defining what constitutes ‘local’. Key policy insights GCF is committed to supporting local adaptation finance in developing countries but has failed to adequately operationalize this commitment. To increase local delivery of climate finance, GCF should develop a unified framework for local delivery of adapation finance that emphasises local actors' leadership in design, implementation, and management of adaptation projects. GCF should also increase transparency and accountability of funded projects to enable independent assessments of local delivery of adaptation finance by making project information, including financial reports publicly available. GCF should ensure that Accredited Entities have capacity to develop and deliver projects that deliver adaptation finance to the local level e.g. by requiring entities to provide evidence of support for local adaptation during accreditation.

A just transition for essential workers? Workers and climate policy at and after COP 26

ABSTRACT It is timely to investigate how essential workers may be incorporated into existing understandings of just transition, and whether and how such workers have been addressed in discussions on just transition under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In so doing, one might better understand the relationship of essential workers to the achievement of the Paris goals, and assess entry points for making such connections explicit. Three approaches to the concept of just transition, drawn from a study conducted by Dimitris Stevis and Romain Felli, provide a useful reference point for how the concept of a just transition is understood by different actors. This paper extends the framework to consider how, under each of the three orientations, essential workers may be relevant to a just transition. The paper then applies the framework to the corpus of decisions, reports, declarations, and submissions that make up the written record of discussions on just transition taking place under the UNFCCC.

Cop26 and beyond: participation and gender – more of the same?

ABSTRACT This article considers gender equality in the context of the most recent United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of Parties (CoP), CoP26. Gender equality issues are now widely recognised within global climate change governance, playing an ongoing role within it. The CoP does not function in isolation and its regime setting is significant, in particular, in the work of UNFCCC constituted bodies and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Other parts of the United Nations, such as the Commission on the Status of Women (CSW66) can also offer important contributions to gender; and civil society too plays a vital role in this aspect of climate governance. These elements and the interplay between them have shaped gender issues at CoP26, as has the global pandemic. While gender equality is a live issue in global climate governance, leveraging substantial, substantive, action by states to address it remains problematic.

Understanding the multilateral negotiations on climate change ahead of COP27: Priorities for the African region

ABSTRACT This article presents a rationale for understanding how the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) operates in advancing the global response to climate change. It does this by highlighting key characteristics of this framework convention, whose multilateral process has led to the establishment of treaties such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. The article also points out the complexity of the process within the annual meetings of the UNFCCC’s Conference of the Parties (COP), the supreme decision-making body of the convention. Furthermore, the slow pace of progress of these multilateral negotiations and the reasons responsible for such slow progress are highlighted. The article notes that the next COP, under the leadership of Egypt, presents a significant opportunity to Africa to influence the process. As a whole, the article aims to contribute to a deeper understanding of this important multilateral process and the value of incremental change.

Türkiye’s Climate Policy: Aligned with International Climate Politics

The aim of this article is to assess Türkiye’s national climate policy framework within the context of international climate change negotiations. Türkiye, as an emerging economy and developing country, has implemented a number of climate actions and measures and has ratified significant multilateral climate agreements, such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Kyoto Protocol, and the Paris Agreement.

Possible Role of NPP in Long Term Low Carbon Development Strategy – Case Study Croatia

The term low – emission development strategies (LEDS) was developed on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2008. LEDS is used to describe a longterm national economic development plans or strategies that include low emissions and economic growth resistant to climate change. The concept of Low Carbon Development Strategies (LCDS) has been introduced by the Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC as a common but differentiated approach to meet the overall emissions reduction objectives: “All countries shall prepare Low Emission Development Strategies …nationally-driven and represent[ing] the aims and objectives of individual Parties in accordance with national circumstances and capacities” (Cancun Agreement). Low Carbon Development Strategies (LCDS) in this way become an overarching framework to design and achieve Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) reflecting the Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) of all countries. For Long-Term National Strategy and Action Plan for Low-Carbon Development the main objective of this programme is the development of a long-term national strategy and action plan for low-carbon development to enable country to fulfil its commitment to carbon obligations. Low-carbon development strategy will become the fundamental for the development of the energy sector with low rate of carbon, but also for the entire economy. European Union is the leader in the effort to reduce emissions especially in the energy sector – sector with the highest rate of emission. With the goal of reducing emissions, necessary measures are accentuated for energy in the EU Countries, as well as in Croatia. The possibilities for realization of Croatian low-carbon development and particularly possible role and barriers for Nuclear power plants for Low carbon emissions development in the electricity sector until 2050 will be presented in this paper.

The Climate Change Challenge: A Review of the Barriers and Solutions to Deliver a Paris Solution

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have continued to grow persistently since 1750. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) entered into force in 1994 to stabilize GHG emissions. Since then, the increasingly harmful impacts of global climate change and repeated scientific warnings about future risks have not been enough to change the emissions trend and enforce policy actions. This paper synthesizes the climate change challenges and the insofar insufficient mitigation responses via an integrated literature review. The fossil industry, mainstream economic thinking, national rather than international interests, and political strive for short-term interests present key barriers to climate mitigation. A continuation of such trends is reflected in the Dice model, leading to a 3.5 °C temperature increase by 2100. Despite receiving the Nobel Prize for integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis via the Dice model, increases in global mean temperatures overshooting the 1.5 °C to 2 °C Paris targets imply an intensified disruption in the human–climate system. Past and present policy delays and climate disruption pave the way for solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering solutions with largely unknown and potentially dangerous side effects. This paper argues against SRM geoengineering and evaluates critical mitigation solutions leading to a decrease in global temperatures without overshooting the Paris targets. The essential drivers and barriers are discussed through a unified approach to tipping points in the human–climate system. The scientific literature presents many economically and technologically viable solutions and the policy and measures required to implement them. The present paper identifies the main barriers to integrating them in a globally cooperative way, presenting an efficient, long-term, and ethical policy approach to climate change.

Making the US national forest inventory spatially contiguous and temporally consistent

Signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are required to annually report economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions and removals, including the forest sector. National forest inventory (NFI) is considered the main source of data for reporting forest carbon stocks and changes to UNFCCC. However, NFI samples are often collected asynchronously across regions in intervals of 5–10 years or sub-sampled annually, both introducing uncertainties in estimating annual carbon stock changes by missing a wide range of forest disturbance and recovery processes. Here, we integrate satellite observations with forest inventory data across the conterminous United States to improve the spatial and temporal resolution of NFI for estimating annual carbon stocks and changes. We used more than 120 000 permanent plots from the US forest inventory and analysis (FIA) data, surveyed periodically at sampling rate of 15%–20% per year across the US to develop non-parametric remote sensing-based models of aboveground biomass carbon density (AGC) at 1 ha spatial resolution for the years 2005, 2010, 2015, 2016, and 2017. The model provided a relatively unbiased estimation of AGC compared to ground inventory estimates at plot, county, and state scales. The uncertainty of the biomass maps and their contributions to estimates of forest carbon stock changes at county and state levels were quantified. Our results suggest that adding spatial and temporal dimensions to the forest inventory data, will significantly improve the accuracy and precision of carbon stocks and changes at jurisdictional scales.

기술 메커니즘 주기적 평가와 기후기술센터네트워크 외부독립평가의 내용적 연계 고찰: 정책통합 관점에서

One of the major agenda items of technology negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2021 was the alignment between two review processes. One process is the independent review on the Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN), and the other process is the periodic assessment on the Technology Mechanism, comprising the Technology Executive Committee (TEC) and the CTCN. The alignment of these two processes has been considered due to the overlapping issues between them. This alignment has been discussed in terms of a procedure and periodicity aspect, but not yet from a substantive aspect. Thus, this study considers and explores options for substantive alignment through the lens of policy integration theory. For this, first, the evaluation criteria and evaluation elements between the two review processes are compared and matched for potential alignment. Second, the potential options are analyzed in terms of practical, financial, and administrative efficiency perspectives. Third, the extent of alignment (based on procedures and substance) and the principles of alignment (based on efficiency and effectiveness) are considered. Finally, this paper concludes with future negotiation implications.