Uniform Hazard Response Spectra Research Articles

The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications

The US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated in 2023 for all 50 states using new science on seismicity, fault ruptures, ground motions, and probabilistic techniques to produce a standard of practice for public policy and other engineering applications (defined for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years). Changes in 2023 time-independent seismic hazard (both increases and decreases compared to previous NSHMs) are substantial because the new model considers more data and updated earthquake rupture forecasts and ground-motion components. In developing the 2023 model, we tried to apply best available or applicable science based on advice of co-authors, more than 50 reviewers, and hundreds of hazard scientists and end-users, who attended public workshops and provided technical inputs. The hazard assessment incorporates new catalogs, declustering algorithms, gridded seismicity models, magnitude-scaling equations, fault-based structural and deformation models, multi-fault earthquake rupture forecast models, semi-empirical and simulation-based ground-motion models, and site amplification models conditioned on shear-wave velocities of the upper 30 m of soil and deeper sedimentary basin structures. Seismic hazard calculations yield hazard curves at hundreds of thousands of sites, ground-motion maps, uniform-hazard response spectra, and disaggregations developed for pseudo-spectral accelerations at 21 oscillator periods and two peak parameters, Modified Mercalli Intensity, and 8 site classes required by building codes and other public policy applications. Tests show the new model is consistent with past ShakeMap intensity observations. Sensitivity and uncertainty assessments ensure resulting ground motions are compatible with known hazard information and highlight the range and causes of variability in ground motions. We produce several impact products including building seismic design criteria, intensity maps, planning scenarios, and engineering risk assessments showing the potential physical and social impacts. These applications provide a basis for assessing, planning, and mitigating the effects of future earthquakes.

MSA-based seismic fragility analysis of RC structures considering soil nonlinearity effects and time histories compatible to uniform hazard spectra

In the present study, an updated ground motion simulation framework based on spectral compatible time histories is proposed for the evaluation of seismic performance of mid-rise reinforced concrete structures with multi-stripe analysis (MSA) based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The seismic fragility functions are generated for two numbers of three storied instrumented test buildings of which one is founded on individual flexible footings and other one is a base isolated building. The fragility analysis is carried out for different performance levels under a series of input ground motions (IGMs) by considering uncertainty in soil structure interaction and uncertainty in ground motion. IGMs are obtained from the uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) with different return period thus conserving the frequency content of input motion during the scaling of high intensity earthquakes. The UHRS compatible synthetic time histories are applied at rock level and amplified surface motion obtained from soil amplification studies considering soil nonlinearity are applied to the buildings supported on soil springs. Nonlinear time history analysis is performed by modelling hysteretic characteristic of columns using modified Takeda model. The fragility curves obtained from the proposed methodology are compared with that using simple scaling of accelerograms generally performed in literature. The proposed technique gives conservative result for structure with individual flexible footings while no marked differences are observed for base isolated structure.

Application of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment to Understand the Earthquake Hazard in Attock City, Pakistan: A Step towards Linking Hazards and Sustainability

Within the last three decades, twelve major earthquakes (Mw > 6.0) have jolted Pakistan and contributed to a heavy death toll and an economic loss of billions of dollars, which is immense for any underdeveloped country. Despite the generalized description of seismic hazards in various regions of Pakistan, densely populated cities still require a detailed and integrated vulnerability analysis to overcome the impact of a significant earthquake. This study aims to integrate seismic hazard assessment schemes to understand the vulnerability of Attock city against an earthquake. It initially evaluates the threat from an earthquake due to tectonic activity in the region, splits the region (about 200 km radius) into six seismic zones and uses area source parameters. The ground motion prediction equations compatible with the study area’s seismotectonic environment are also used in this study. Peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) and 5% damped spectral acceleration are critical features of ground motions. The site classification is carried within Attock city, indicating the presence of SB (foundation condition with Vs30 = 760 m/s), SC (foundation condition with Vs30 = 400 m/s) and SD (foundation condition with Vs30 = 300 m/s). The peak ground accelerations for a return period of 475 years at the SB, SC and SD sites are estimated as 0.23 g, 0.28 g and 0.30 g, respectively. Uniform hazard spectra are obtained for each site classification at three return periods (475, 975 and 2475 years). Another possible threat can be the local site conditions of the study area, as Attock city exists on the unlithified sediments of upper Pleistocene to Recent alluvial deposits. That is why microtremor recordings are conducted at 20 sites within Attock city to understand the fundamental frequency (f0), horizontal to vertical spectral amplitude (A0) and Kg parameter, a seismic vulnerability index. The values of f0 are found between 0.6 and 9 Hz and A0 is observed between 2.1 and 5 Hz, whereas the Kg is estimated between 0.24 and 20 Hz. Despite evidence of the seismic vulnerability of Attock city, the current building designs and infrastructure development are not synchronized with the uniform hazard response spectra and the soil amplification, thus enhancing the exposure of the study area to disaster during a major earthquake. This study will be instrumental in pre-disaster mitigation strategies for urban planners and policymakers.

Numerical modelling of the seismic response of gentle slopes in Southeastern Brazil

The offshore Campos Basin, located in Southeastern Brazil represents an important area in the Brazilian economy as it is one of the most prolific oil-producing basins in the country. With the development of offshore infrastructures in this region, structural design and location must consider different geohazards. This paper addresses the seismic response of gentle submarine slopes subjected to small-to-moderate-sized earthquakes, representative of the Brazilian seismic conditions. The seismic analyses employed numerical modeling, with a nonlinear constitutive model. A set of bedrock ground motions representative of the offshore Campos Basin seismicity was obtained, employing a Uniform Hazard Response spectrum for the region and earthquakes from the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) database. Numerical modelling results showed that, even for small slope angles and moderate earthquakes, there is an accumulation of permanent displacements and shear strains in the downslope direction can affect the stability and performance of existing offshore infrastructures. The findings of this research provide a valuable reference for the prediction of seismic displacements, shear strains and seabed amplification or attenuation of earthquakes on gentle slopes in deep-water deposits similar to those found in the offshore Campos Basin.

Seismic Fragility and Risk Assessment of a Nuclear Power Plant Containment Building for Seismic Input Based on the Conditional Spectrum

A procedure for the seismic fragility assessment of nuclear power plants by applying ground motions compatible with the conditional probability distribution of a conditional spectrum (CS) is presented with a case study of a containment building. Three CSs were constructed using different control frequencies to investigate the influence of the control frequency. Horizontal component-to-component directional variability was introduced by randomly rotating the horizontal axes of the recorded ground motions. Nonlinear lumped mass stick models were constructed using variables distributed by Latin hypercube sampling to model the uncertainty. An incremental dynamic analysis was performed, and seismic fragility curves were calculated. In addition, a seismic input based on a uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) was applied to the seismic fragility assessment for comparison. By selecting a control frequency dominating the seismic response, the CS-based seismic input produces an enhanced ‘high confidence of low probability of failure’ capacity and lower seismic risk than the UHRS-based seismic input.

Probabilistic site response analysis for nuclear facilities considering variability of soil properties and its effects on uniform hazard response spectra and ground motion response spectra

Because seismic waves are influenced by variability at local soil sites, their effects on the uniform hazard response spectra (UHRS) and ground motion response spectra (GMRS) of nuclear facilities at soil sites are studied by means of a probabilistic site response analysis based on the random vibration theory. Monte Carlo simulations are employed to take into consideration the effects of variability of the layer thickness, low-strain shear-wave velocity, and nonlinear dependence of the shear modulus and hysteretic damping on shear strain at soil sites. A new probabilistic model is proposed to simulate the variability of the layer thickness using an Erlang distribution. Random field models are considered for the nonlinear shear modulus reduction and damping curves. The probabilistic approach is applied to generic soil sites to evaluate their soil-amplification functions. The seismic hazard curves and the UHRS can be obtained using the amplification functions and the hazard curves of outcropping bedrock motions. Then, the seismic risk for structures installed at these types of sites is calculated and the resulting GMRS values for a seismic design are derived. It can be observed from the simulations that the variability in the layer thickness and the low-strain shear-wave velocity influences the soil-amplification functions and the resulting UHRS and GMRS values for the soil sites significantly. The effects increase with the variances of the considered random properties. Because the input motions for probabilistic earthquake response analyses of nuclear facilities are determined based on the UHRS/GMRS values, the effects of random soil sites must be carefully considered to ensure the seismic safety of these facilities.

Site-dependent ground-motion prediction equations and uniform hazard response spectra

A novel approach to construct site-dependent ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) was implemented to build a uniform hazard response spectra (UHRS) using a reservoir site in southern Taiwan as an example. This innovation minimizes the GMPE uncertainties to avoid over-estimations in a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). We selected ground-motion records with similar site conditions from the stations within 70 km of the studied site to build a site-dependent ground-motion prediction model for crustal earthquakes in the region. This site-dependent GMPE set obtains a significantly smaller scattering of residuals compared with the existing regional GMPEs from the Taiwan data set. This indicates that a set of site-dependent GMPEs could provide a more accurate and reasonable prediction of ground-motion levels for the design or safety evaluation of important infrastructures.

Effects of Soil Amplification on Ground Motion Response Spectra with High-Frequency Contents at Generic Soil Sites for Nuclear Facilities in Korea

Ground motion response spectra (GMRS) at rock/soil sites in regions where earthquake ground motions have dominant contents at high frequencies of 10 Hz or more are evaluated and the effects of soil amplification on the GMRS are studied. The seismic hazard levels at the soil sites are estimated from soil amplification functions and hazard curves for rock outcrop motions. The soil amplification functions are obtained using modified earthquake ground motions which match the uniform hazard response spectra (UHRS) for rock outcrop motions with various mean annual frequencies of exceedance in order to consider the effects of earthquake ground motions consistently in a site response analysis. UHRS at soil sites are determined from the calculated seismic hazard curves. Subsequently, design factors, which will be applied to UHRS, and the corresponding GMRS are evaluated such that the seismic risk for the structures, systems, and components of nuclear facilities would be equal to a target seismic risk. It can be observed from example applications that the UHRS and GMRS at soil sites have peaks at the natural frequencies of the soil, where the soil responses are amplified. Amplification at soil sites depends on the frequency contents of rock outcrop motions.

Probabilistic seismic hazard mapping of National Capital Region of India using a modified gridded seismicity model

This is the first comprehensive study for a seismic macro-zonation of the National Capital Region of India by using the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis approach. A modified gridded seismicity model is used for this purpose, in which the earthquake occurrence rates obtained using the Gutenberg-Richter's (G-R) relationships for conventional area type seismic sources are distributed non-uniformly among a grid of cells. This provides a more robust approach than the commonly used weighted sum of area sources of homogeneous seismicity and the zone-free smoothed gridded seismicity. Other distinguishing features of the present analysis include: detailed seismotectonic evaluation of the region to identify seven area type seismic sources, compilation of a comprehensive earthquake catalogue for the estimation of seismicity recurrence parameters, selection of the most appropriate ground motion prediction equation by using a database of 71 strong motion accelerograms recorded in the region, and estimation of the compatible distance parameters by associating a fictitious fault rupture plane to each grid cell with appropriate strike and dip angles. Hazards maps are prepared for the hard rock site condition in terms of the peak ground acceleration and the 5%-damping acceleration response spectrum amplitudes for several combinations of natural periods and return periods. A simple empirical approach is also developed to obtain amplification factors for modifying the uniform hazard response spectra for the rock sites to those for the soil sites with a given VS30 value. The hazard estimates from this study are found to be somewhat higher with greater site-to-site variations as compared to those from the earlier studies.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment studies for Mumbai region

The present study attempts to understand and assess the seismic hazard of Mumbai using probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) with an updated catalogue of earthquake clubbed with recent knowledge on seismotectonics of the region. An updated catalogue of instrumental and pre-instrumental earthquake data within 300 km radius around the city has been compiled from different sources. The PSHA has been computed using two different seismic source models, viz., a fault (linear) and zone model (areal). A hybrid of five suitable ground motion prediction models (GMPM) consisting of widely accepted and latest GMPMs is used to compute the PSHA of Mumbai. The results obtained from different methodologies are integrated with logic tree approach to minimize the epistemic uncertainties in hazard calculation. Probabilistic seismic hazard maps in terms of peak ground accelerations (PGA) at bedrock levels for 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are developed for Mumbai. Uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) on bedrock at eight different sites within Mumbai for spectral periods of 0.01—2 s is also computed. The low seismic hazard is observed and reasonably compared with the previous PSHA studies done for Mumbai region.

Seismic Response Amplification Factors of Nuclear Power Plants for Seismic Performance Evaluation of Structures and Equipment due to High-frequency Earthquakes

Analysis of the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake and the 2017 Pohang earthquake showed the characteristics of a typical high-frequency earthquake with many high-frequency components, short time strong motion duration, and large peak ground acceleration relative to the magnitude of the earthquake. Domestic nuclear power plants were designed and evaluated based on NRC's Regulatory Guide 1.60 design response spectrum, which had a great deal of energy in the low-frequency range. Therefore, nuclear power plants should carry out seismic verification and seismic performance evaluation of systems, structures, and components by reflecting the domestic characteristics of earthquakes. In this study, high-frequency amplification factors that can be used for seismic verification and seismic performance evaluation of nuclear power plant systems, structures, and equipment were analyzed. In order to analyze the high-frequency amplification factor, five sets of seismic time history were generated, which were matched with the uniform hazard response spectrum to reflect the characteristics of domestic earthquake motion. The nuclear power plant was subjected to seismic analysis for the construction of the Korean standard nuclear power plant, OPR1000, which is a reactor building, an auxiliary building assembly, a component cooling water heat exchanger building, and an essential service water building. Based on the results of the seismic analysis, a high-frequency amplification factor was derived upon the calculation of the floor response spectrum of the important locations of nuclear power plants. The high-frequency amplification factor can be effectively used for the seismic verification and seismic performance evaluation of electric equipment which are sensitive to high-frequency earthquakes.

Evaluating alternative approaches for the seismic design of structures

The current design approach recommended by seismic codes is often based on the use of uniform-hazard response spectra, reduced to account for inelastic structural behaviour. This approach has some strong limitations that have been highlighted in many studies, including not allowing a direct control of the seismic risk and losses. This study aims at quantifying the levels of safety and the costs associated with this design approach, and to investigate alternative design approaches that have been developed in the last decades. In particular, a risk-targeting approach and a minimum-cost approach are considered. The first one, allowed by US codes, aims at designing structures with the same risk of collapse throughout regions of different seismicity. The second one aims to minimize the sum of the initial construction cost and the cost of expected losses due to future earthquakes. The comparison of the three approaches is performed by considering, as an example structure, a four-storey reinforced concrete frame building located in different areas in Europe, and by looking at the implications in terms of achieved safety levels, initial costs, and future losses. The study’s results provide useful information on how the design criteria and the different hazard levels throughout Europe affect the cost and safety levels of seismic design.

Construction of a Site- and Period-Specific Seismic Hazard Map for the Korean Peninsula

The 2016 Gyeongju and 2017 Pohang earthquakes caused casualties and economic damage in the surrounding areas. Therefore, the importance of earthquake damage prediction and seismic design in the Korean peninsula has increased. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is one of the well-known methods for predicting earthquake damage. The objective of this study is to construct Korean Peninsula seismic hazard maps of 5% damped response spectrum acceleration and peak ground acceleration, using PSHA. To consider the local effects for each site's classification, seismic hazard maps were constructed by considering the site amplification model. To conduct seismic design, uniform hazard response spectra (UHRS) were also constructed for the Korean peninsula.

Neural network-based hybrid ground motion prediction equations for Western Himalayas and North-Eastern India

This work aims at developing a hybrid ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for spectral acceleration in Western Himalayas and North-Eastern India. The GMPE is derived using an efficient nonparametric modelling based on neural network algorithm. In this study, owing to sparsity in the recorded ground motions (498 recordings) for the region, the available information is combined with 13,294 records from the well-tested NGA-West 2 database. For the methodology adopted in the study, regional flags are assigned to the records. Thus, given a magnitude, distance, shear wave velocity, fault type and region, the model is able to predict the possible spectral acceleration. The developed GMPE is observed to be unbiased with respect to region. Further, the inter- and intra-event standard deviations are also in acceptable ranges. It is observed that developed GMPE for Western Himalayas and North-Eastern India is able to capture all the known ground motion characteristics. Additionally, the GMPE is compared with the existing GMPE for rock-type soil condition available for the Western Himalayas and North-Eastern India. Furthermore, applicability of the developed GMPE model in estimating hazard is analysed by obtaining the uniform hazard response spectra for Delhi and Guwahati.

Seismic Fragility Assessment of NPP Containment Structure based on Conditional Mean Spectra for Multiple Earthquake Scenarios

A methodology to assess seismic fragility of a nuclear power plant (NPP) using a conditional mean spectrum is proposed as an alternative to using a uniform hazard response spectrum. Rather than the single-scenario conditional mean spectrum, which is the conventional conditional mean spectrum based on a single scenario, a multi-scenario conditional mean spectrum is proposed for the case in which no single scenario is dominant. The multi-scenario conditional mean spectrum is defined as the weighted average of different conditional mean spectra, each one of which corresponds to an individual scenario. The weighting factors for scenarios are obtained from a deaggregation of seismic hazards. As a validation example, a seismic fragility assessment of an NPP containment structure is performed using a uniform hazard response spectrum and different single-scenario conditional mean spectra and multi-scenario conditional mean spectra. In the example, the number of scenarios primarily influences the median capacity of the evaluated structure. Meanwhile, the control frequency, a key parameter of a conditional mean spectrum, plays an important role in reducing logarithmic standard deviation of the corresponding fragility curves and corresponding high confidence of low probability of failure (HCLPF) capacity.

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using the logic tree approach – Patna district (India)

Abstract. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) and study area (SA) distribution for the Patna district are presented considering both the classical and zoneless approaches through a logic tree framework to capture the epistemic uncertainty. Seismicity parameters are calculated by considering completed and mixed earthquake data. Maximum magnitude is calculated using three methods, namely the incremental method, Kijko method, and regional rupture characteristics approach. The best suitable ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are selected by carrying out an “efficacy test” using log likelihood. Uniform hazard response spectra have been compared with Indian standard BIS 1893. PGA varies from 0.38 to 0.30 g from the southern to northern periphery considering 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Amaravathi Region, Andhra Pradesh

This article explains an analytical attempt that estimates seismic hazard for Amaravathi city. The present study has been carried out contemplating the available faults and epicentral data within a radius of 300km of the Amaravathi region. The homogenous earthquake catalogue has been prepared for Amaravathi region by Steep’s method. The seismic hazard parameters ―a‖ and ―b‖ for Amaravathi city were evaluated by Gutenberg-Ritcher method. The ―a‖ and ―b‖ values obtained as 4.69, 0.6468 respectively. The total 353 epicenters and 31 faults were considered in this seismic analysis for the estimate of PSHA for Amaravathi. The ground motion produced by the faults at this site has been estimated by using the regionspecific Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) developed by the raghukanth and lyenger (2007). The probability of occurrence of different magnitude classes was estimated. The hazard curves and mean annual rate of exceedance for Peak Ground Acceleration were calculated by using ground motion estimated in this area. The Uniform Hazard Response Spectrum (UHRS) for the ranging time periods between 0.1 – 4 seconds was prepared. PGA values for Amaravati region was found to be in between 0.001g to 0.3g from seismic hazard map that was prepared in this study

Estimation of ground response and local site effects for Vishakhapatnam, India

Ground motion intensity due to an earthquake changes as it disseminates through the soil media from bedrock to the surface. As the ground motion intensity and damage levels mainly depend upon the local site conditions, it is mandatory to carry out the detailed site-specific hazard studies to assure safety of the structure against seismic risk. In this research paper, an effort has been made to estimate seismic hazard associated with the city of Vishakhapatnam. The city lies in east coast region of southern India and falls under seismic zone II (IS 1893-2016 in Criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures: part 1—general provisions and buildings, Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi, 2016). Seismic activity in the Eastern Ghats mobile belt region has increased due to subduction of Burma plate toward the Bay of Bengal, which resulted in activation of inactive faults and new fault development in the region. Therefore, increasing seismic risk and importance of the study area has motivated the researchers to carry out probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and estimation of local site effects using ground response analysis and microtremor testing. From the results, hazard maps were generated in terms of peak ground acceleration (surface, bedrock level), H/V frequency and H/V amplitude. The seismic hazard parameters, uniform hazard response spectrum and hazards curves from probabilistic seismic hazard assessment are further useful in design and construction of prominent structures. The peak ground acceleration at surface and bedrock, predominant frequency and H/V amplitude indicate the variation in local site conditions and will be of great help in seismic design of structures as well as retrofitting of the existing structures to withstand against seismic hazards. Hazard maps from the study will be helpful in further seismic microzonation studies and also identifying zones of potential seismic risk.

Comparing the best-estimate uniform hazard response spectra to the observed data from the Mw 7.3 earthquake on November 12, 2017 in the Kermanshah areas of western Iran

In this study, synthetic catalogs based on the Monte Carlo simulations have been produced for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), in the Kermanshah region, West of Iran. Resultant seismic hazard zoning maps, hazard curves and three-dimensional deaggregation of seismic hazard are provided. In order to validate the estimated peak ground accelerations (PGAs), the deduced uniform hazard response spectra (UHRS) are compared with the recorded PGAs in some stations near to the large Mw 7.3 earthquake occurred in the western part of Iran near to Iraq border on 12 November 2017. Different ground motion prediction equations are tested and the results are compared.

Seismic parameter design assessment for the Kribi deep seaport in Cameroon

In the Kribi region (south-western Cameroon), a new industrial harbour has been built. This area is marked as a low-seismicity zone, according to the global seismic hazard map. This estimate is based, however, on a poorly documented data set. Industrial harbours are critical facilities and, consequently, appropriate cautions have to be taken in the seismic design. This paper illustrates the methodology adopted to compute the expected ground motion for the seismic design of the new harbour, starting from the available information. The standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is based on a logic tree approach considering areal and fault sources with two earthquake rate models (characteristic earthquake and Gutenberg–Richter), and two ground motion prediction equations. As expected, the obtained ground motion at the bedrock for a return period of 475 years is not very large [0.07 g, in terms of horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA)] with a well marked peak between 0.1 and 0.2 s. This result is in agreement with that of the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Project, where a general PGA between 0.04 and 0.08 g is associated with south-western Cameroon. The effects of local site conditions are evaluated through geophysical methods (single station and array surveys) and 1D linear-equivalent numerical modelling. Considering the two geotechnical models identified in the study region, by a specific geophysical survey executed during this study, local amplifications of 1.9 and 2.2 have been calculated for the two sectors, respectively. Furthermore, the results obtained, in terms of uniform hazard response spectra, have been used as guidelines to determine the design ground motions for the maritime and land infrastructures planned in the Kribi harbour area. This study represents a summary of the present knowledge on the seismicity of this part of Africa as well as the first regional and local seismic hazard assessment for the Kribi area.