Risk Of Unemployment Research Articles

Labor protection and stock price crash risk: Evidence from international equity markets

We utilize the exogenous intertemporal variation in employment protection across countries and study the impact of employment protection on international equity markets. We find robust evidence that firms located in countries with weak labor protection regulation exhibit a low level of one-year-ahead stock price crash risks relative to those in countries with strong labor protection regulation. It is consistent with the view that when employees face material unemployment risk, they are more incentivized to engage in information search and analysis, thereby curtailing the effectiveness of managerial bad news hoarding activities (i.e., the protection heightening risk hypothesis). Our findings are robust to a battery of sensitivity tests. Further evidence shows that the impact of employment protection on crash risk is more pronounced for firms with a higher proclivity to suppress bad news and for firms in countries with stronger legal enforcement. Our findings have important implications for policymakers concerning equity extreme risk and labor protection around the globe.

The Issues and Optimization Strategies in the Modernization of Vocational Education in the Era of Chat GPT

The emergence of Chat GPT technology represents a significant breakthrough in natural language processing, revolutionizing human-machine interaction and presenting profound challenges to vocational education modernization in China. In the Chat GPT era, vocational education undergoes transformative changes, including personalized learning reaching new heights, big data-driven intelligent decision-making entering a new phase, and the integration of education resources on unprecedented scales. However, this modernization effort also encounters several critical issues, such as overreliance on technology and the associated risks of unemployment, threats to data privacy and security, erosion of ethical values, and the widening digital divide in education. To ensure the high-quality development of vocational education modernization with the support of artificial intelligence tools like Chat GPT, it is crucial to enhance supervision and regulation of Chat GPT technology applications, promoting its safe and responsible use. Moreover, prioritizing technology ethics and moral education becomes imperative to nurture students’ ethical awareness and moral compass in the utilization and development of technology. Lastly, optimizing the distribution of digital educational resources is essential to promote educational equity and bridge the digital divide among students.

'Days of Frustration': A Qualitative Study of Adolescents' Thoughts and Experiences of Schooling after Early Dropout.

School dropout increases the risk of unemployment, health problems, and disability benefits. Employing an ecological-developmental perspective, we analyzed the interviews of thirteen students from a peripheral Norwegian county, aiming to explore the possible influence of upbringing and schooling on dropout. The analysis revealed that dropout was associated with an unstable family situation, lack of structure in everyday life, unresolved complex learning difficulties, bullying, and a tough existence in a rented room. The participants conveyed a sense of defeat, frustration, and an absence of meaningful alternatives. However, two participants had actively chosen to discontinue their education; this was because they preferred work practice to allow them time to mature and re-orientate in relation to future educational and career choices. Their families and social networks contributed actively to the implementation of their future plans. The findings point to the importance of studying interventions that may prevent school dropout, and that address central factors in the process of school dropout, such as social support, academic achievement, and parental involvement.

Period effects in the risk of labour market marginalization among refugees in Sweden: cohort study

Abstract Background Changes in Swedish national insurance policies over time and/or migration-related health inequalities may influence the risk for labour market marginalization (LMM) in refugees as compared to the Swedishborn host population. This study aimed to investigate potential period effects in the association between refugee status and the risk of LMM and explore any differences by country of birth, age and duration of residence. Methods Using national registers, three cohorts including all Swedish residents during 1999, 2004 and 2009 were followed for 4 years (cohort 2000, 2005 and 2010). Cox regression models were used to examine associations between refugee status and LMM defined as long-term unemployment (>180 days annually) and disability pension. The analyses were adjusted for socio-demographic factors, morbidities and labour market-related factors. Stratified analyses were run for age, country of birth and duration of residence. Results Across the cohorts, hazard ratios (HRs) were higher for long-term unemployment [2000: HR = 1.98; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.96-2.01; 2005: HR = 2.30; 95% CI: 2.27-2.33; 2010: HR = 2.78; 95% CI: 2.75-2.81] for refugees compared to Swedish-born but not for disability pension. HRs for long-term unemployment were highest among refugees aged 25-34 and 35-44 years, from Somalia, Afghanistan and Iraq and refugees with a shorter duration of residence. Conclusions The risk of long-term unemployment appears to have increased for refugees over time. Particularly some refugee subgroups experienced more difficulties. These findings highlight ongoing disparities for refugees and implicate on a broader scale that changes in policies such as stricter regulations in the insurance or healthcare system might adversely affect them. Key messages • A period effect for long-term unemployment among refugees as compared to Swedish-born could be observed, and increases in the risk estimates were particularly pronounced for specific subgroups. • Refugees seem to face increasing challenges and difficulties over time to access the labour market and changes in policies might adversely affect this situation.

Transitions in and out of work across the life course of patient with a NCD diagnosis

Abstract Background Coupled with its impact on quality of life, non-communicable Diseases (NCD) may degrade both the quality and quantity of the workforce, and stunt economic growth and productive employment. However, there is limited information about the social costs of NCDs to identify priorities in resource allocation, particularly in regard to retirement policies. In this paper, we investigate if NCDs affect them employment status, i.e., the patients’ ability to work beyond middle age, using longitudinal data. Methods We used longitudinal data from employed men and women who responded to the sixth and seventh waves of the SHARE project from several European countries and Israel. We restricted the sample to all people working up to 3 years before the expected retirement age for each country. To achieve a representative sample of employed people from each country we calculated calibrated longitudinal individual weights for participants in these two waves. It was to adjust for non-response, sample selection bias, and attrition (N = 9645). We modelled the probability to change employment status on Wave 7 as function of having a NCD, adjusting for age, gender, marital status, job satisfaction, education level, and country, using multinominal logistic regressions. Results Overall, 30.3% of the study population self-reported one NCD and 28.3% mentioned at least two chronic health conditions (multimorbidity). Among multimorbid individuals the risk of unemployment is 1.27 times more (OR = 1.271, 95% CI (1.266-1.276).), while the risk of retirement is multiplied by 1.26 (OR = 1.259, 95%CI (1.255-1.262)). Conclusions Having one NCD or multimorbidity is a common phenomenon in the working middle-aged European population. It is associated with unemployment and retirement, controlling for educational level, age, marital status, gender, job satisfaction, and country. This result highlights that early retirement will persist unless health policies are implemented to decrease the burden of NCDs. Key messages • This study shows that there is a strong association between having one or more NCD with unemployment and retirement, controlling for educational, age, and occupational type. • Results reinforce that we need health policies focused on alerting society about real impact of NCD on employment.

Unemployment Insurance – Comparative, Cross-Border and EU Perspectives

The article is centred upon the research question whether unemployed persons enjoy proper protection in national, international (cross-border) and EU law. In an attempt to reply to such question, the authors firstly compare national unemployment insurance schemes and secondly, research on how unemployment benefits are coordinated in cross-border cases. Moreover, non-coordination of social assistance schemes is addressed. With respect to coordination of unemployment benefits and social assistance schemes, the authors advocate for ways of improving the legal position of mobile unemployed persons. Lastly, some EU-wide unemployment related initiatives are highlighted, namely the European unemployment benefit scheme (EUBS) and the European instrument for temporary support to mitigate unemployment risks in an emergency (SURE) following the Covid-19 outbreak.

Part-Time Workers’ Employment Trajectories by Length of Hours and Reason for Working Part-Time: An 8-Year Follow-Up Study

Using the Finnish Labour Force Surveys merged with register-based follow-up data, we analyzed how different characteristics of part-time work predict employees’ and entrepreneurs’ employment trajectories in an 8-year follow-up. We analyzed careers by the length of weekly working hours and the reason for part-time work, that is, childcare, studies, health, part-time pension, other voluntary choice, or if full-time work was not available (involuntary part-time). We applied sequence analysis to define work career clusters based on the continuum of spells spent in different labor market statuses, that is, in upper and lower white-collar, manual, or entrepreneurial employment, unemployment, studying, pensioned, or inactivity. According to the results, involuntary part-timers have a significantly higher probability of entering the unemployment trajectory than full-time workers. Those working part-time hours due to care responsibilities were also more likely to face frequent periods of unemployment, whereas part-time work combined with studies was associated with stable white-collar trajectories. Our results also show that weakened labor outcomes following marginal part-time jobs associate with disability retirement instead of unemployment later in time, most probably determined by ill health. Therefore, we suggest further studies to consider marginal part-time workers’ health as the determinant of weakening career outcomes. Overall, our results highlight the need to improve part-time working conditions, a concern that organizations like the OECD have also raised. This improvement could reduce the risk of unemployment, promote health, extend work careers, and consequently increase the employment rate.

Unemployment Risk and Debt Contract Design

ABSTRACT We examine how firms’ contractual relationships with their employees affect the design of their debt contracts, and the use of financial covenants in particular. Viewing the firm as the nexus of both explicit and implicit contractual relationships, we argue that managers cater to their employees’ preferences when negotiating contractual terms with creditors. We argue that an increase in unemployment-insurance benefits reduces employees’ cost of job loss, which, in turn, allows managers to take more risk. First, we show that more generous benefits are associated with a higher operating leverage, operating cash flow volatility, and product-development frequency. We then find that loans initiated following an increase in unemployment-insurance benefits include a higher proportion of performance, rather than capital covenants. Overall, our study demonstrates how the design of debt contracts changes in response to arguably exogenous changes in employees’ collective tolerance—and, in turn, managers’ preferences—for risk. JEL Classifications: M41; G32; J60.

Does labor unemployment insurance affect corporate tax aggressiveness?

This paper examines the effect of unemployment insurance benefits (UIB) on corporate tax aggressiveness. Given that aggressive tax avoidance is risky and costly for the firm and its employees, we argue that low state UIB increases workers' exposure to unemployment risk and, hence, influences firms' tax strategies. Our results show a positive relation between tax aggressiveness and UIB. We also find that this relation is more pronounced for firms in industries that are more labor-intensive and firms with high financial constraints and less pronounced for firms in industries with high labor bargaining power.

Flexicurity, education and optimal labour market policies

AbstractThe paper provides a theoretical rationale for flexicurity policies, consisting of low employment protection, generous unemployment insurance and active labour market programmes. Education efforts give access to high productivity firms, more likely to survive and thus exposing less their workers to unemployment risk. Activation programmes support reallocation from risky and unproductive to safer and more productive firms, reducing unemployment. Low employment protection can provide incentives for self‐insurance against unemployment risk through education, mitigating the moral hazard cost of unemployment insurance and activation programmes. The paper identifies conditions for flexicurity to be optimal and confronts theoretical predictions to the data.

Does the Perception of Unemployment Risk Affect the Willingness of Urban Citizenship of Chinese New-Generation Migrant Workers?

Presently, the pace of transformation within traditional sectors of the Chinese economy is accelerating, resulting in the gradual demise of traditional occupations. Consequently, the emerging cohort of Chinese migrant workers confronts unprecedented challenges pertaining to their professional prospects and assimilation into urban society. In order to examine the impact of perceived unemployment risk on the inclination of new-generation migrant workers to embrace urban citizenship, we introduce the notions of environmental dynamism and active skill development as moderating variables. Employing multiple regression analysis, we construct a dual moderating model. The results of our study indicate that the perception of unemployment risk positively predicts the willingness of new-generation migrant workers to embrace urban citizenship. Moreover, we observe that environmental dynamism exerts a positive moderating influence on the relationship between unemployment risk perception and citizenship inclination. Additionally, active skill development serves to positively moderate the moderating effect of environmental dynamism. This study not only reveals the unique influence of subjective unemployment risk perception on the inclination towards urban citizenship but also sheds light on the role played by environmental dynamism and active skill development in this context. The findings of this research further enhance the theoretical framework pertaining to the study of urban citizenship inclination among new-generation Chinese migrant workers.

Does the Perception of Unemployment Risk Affect the Willingness of Urban Citizenship of Chinese New-Generation Migrant Workers?

Does the Perception of Unemployment Risk Affect the Willingness of Urban Citizenship of Chinese New-Generation Migrant Workers?

Predicting employment deterioration with the Processing Speed Test (PST) and SDMT in multiple sclerosis

Background: Employment deterioration is common in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Clinicians often learn of job loss after its occurrence, leaving no opportunity for preventive measures. Objectives: Identify which neuropsychological measures discriminate between healthy volunteers (HVs) and employed/disabled PwMS at baseline and predict work deterioration over 2 years. Methods: We examined 198 PwMS with computerized tests such as the Processing Speed Test (PST) and conventional tests such as the Symbol-Digit Modalities Test (SDMT), administered at baseline. Employment was assessed via Buffalo Vocational Monitoring Survey. Univariate and regression analyses identified significant predictors of PwMS categorized as work-stable versus work-deteriorated status. Results: PwMS were impaired on all baseline assessments relative to HVs (p’s < 0.001). Post hoc analyses showed that employed PwMS and HVs performed similarly and better than work-disabled PwMS. At the univariate level, both PST and SDMT discriminated between work-deteriorated and work-stable PwMS (p’s < 0.01). The logistic regression model accounting for all measures retained PST and the computerized Walking Speed Test. PwMS with increased negative work events had lower PST (p < 0.001), SDMT (p < 0.001), and BVMT-R (p < 0.01) scores than stable PwMS. The related regression model retained PST and BVMT-R (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Cognition, as measured by the PST and BVMT-R, are predictive of job deterioration in PwMS and may be a useful screening tool to identify those at high risk of unemployment.

Marriage and divorce: the role of unemployment insurance

AbstractThis paper examines how changes in household-level risk sharing affect the marriage market. We use as our laboratory a German unemployment insurance (UI) reform that tightened means-testing based on the partner’s income. The reduced generosity of UI increased the demand for household-level risk sharing, which lowered the attractiveness of individuals exposed to unemployment risk. Because unemployment risk correlates with non-German nationality, our main finding is that the UI reform led to a decrease in intermarriage. The 2004 expansion of the European Union had a comparable effect on intermarriage for the affected nationalities. Both reforms increased marital stability, which is consistent with better selection by couples.

Economic uncertainty, central bank digital currency, and negative interest rate policy

The COVID-19 outbreak has brought unprecedented social attention to economic uncertainty and negative interest rate policy (NIRP). How does uncertainty affect economic activity, and how effective is a NIRP based on central bank digital currency (CBDC)? To answer the two questions, we constructed a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that accommodates sticky prices and wages. The results indicated: (i) Economic uncertainty has substantially reduced investment, output, wage, and loans, which increases unemployment risk. In the short term, it has triggered impulsive consumption by households, while consumption has fallen into a slump in the long run. (ii) After suffering an uncertainty shock, the economy entered short-term stagflation and long-term deflation. The short-term stagflation was mainly caused by resident wage adjustment, and the long-term deflation was due to the decline in effective demand caused by unemployment risk. (iii) CBDC could eliminate the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint, thereby improving the effectiveness of NIRP. Compared with traditional currency, CBDC-based NIRP could more effectively smooth macroeconomic fluctuations and alleviate the negative impact of an uncertainty shock, which is more conducive to restoring market confidence and promoting economic recovery.

Wage rigidity and destabilizing spirals

This paper investigates the impact of real wage rigidity on the (de)stabilizing role of demand feedback. I show that destabilizing supply–demand feedback driven by countercyclical precautionary savings demand against uninsured unemployment risk is fundamentally a matter of rigid real wage adjustments over business cycles. Given the estimated wage rigidity consistent with aggregate labor market dynamics in the United States, the quantitative results suggest that the unemployment risk channel has a minor impact on aggregate volatility.

On the existence of private unemployment insurance with advance information on future job losses

We study the existence of a profitable unemployment insurance market in a dynamic economy with adverse selection rooted in workers’ advance information on future job losses. The new feature of the model is that the insurer and workers interact repeatedly. Repeated interactions make it possible to threaten workers with exclusion from future insurance benefits after a default on insurance premia. With exclusion, the insurer can offer not only insurance against unemployment risk itself but also against bad news about a future job loss. We discipline our model with estimates of the willingness to pay for unemployment insurance and the costs of adverse selection in the US. Our quantitative results illustrate that private unemployment insurance could be profitable for an exclusion length of one year. To stimulate the emergence of a private unemployment insurance market, policymakers can facilitate the creation of a registry that archives past defaults on insurance premia.

Pilot study protocol of a randomized controlled trial for the potential effects of creatine monohydrate on persistent post-concussive symptoms.

Mild traumatic brain injury or concussion is a global public concern, with an estimated annual incidence between 48 million and 96 million worldwide. It is a socioeconomical problem, and almost one-third of individuals with concussion suffer from severe persistent post-concussive symptoms (PPCS), with an increased risk of unemployment or terminating their studies. To date, no single treatment is available with guaranteed success. Creatine monohydrate (CrM) has shown potential as a treatment for post-concussive symptoms, having a positive impact on cognitive function, chronic fatigue, depression, and anxiety. The aim of this study is to examine the effect of CrM on PPCS assessed using the Rivermead Post-Concussion Symptoms Questionnaire (RPQ). The study is designed as a double-blinded randomised controlled trial. Study participants are found through neurological outpatient clinics in Denmark or through social media. They will be between 25 and 35 years of age, will have suffered from PPCS for 6-12 months prior to inclusion, and will have no comorbidities. The participants will be randomly allocated to either an intervention group (INT), placebo group (PLA), or control group (CG). Baseline data will be collected immediately after inclusion, and the study period will be 7 weeks. Follow-up data will be collected 1 week after the end of the study period. The primary outcome of the study is changes in RPQ score. Changes in weight and training status will be adjusted for as potential confounders. This protocol is approved by the National Committee on Health Research (97508) and by the Danish Data Protection Agency 11.651. The investigators intend to submit their study findings for publication in peer-reviewed journals and disseminate the findings via presentation at academic meetings/conferences.Clinical Trial registration: NCT05562232, registered September 30, 2022.

Effect evaluation of a vocational rehabilitation program for young adults with chronic physical conditions at risk for unemployment: A controlled clinical trial

Background The work participation of young adults with chronic physical conditions lag behind compared to healthy age-mates. ‘At Work’ is a vocational rehabilitation intervention provided by occupational therapists, that supports them for entering the competitive labour market after graduating post-secondary education. Aim To evaluate the effects of ‘At Work’ on self-efficacy, work-ability and employment status as compared to usual care. Materials and methods In total, 88 young adults were included in a multicentre controlled trial; 49 entered ‘At Work’, 39 received usual care. GEE-analyses were applied. Results Scores on all outcome measures substantially improved over time in the intervention group, but no significant effects were found as compared to the control group. The effect on general self-efficacy showed a positive trend in favour of the intervention group. Conclusions and significance Unlike previous study results pointing to positive outcomes of At Work’, the current study did not support the effectiveness of this program on work-related self-efficacy, work-ability and paid employment, as compared to usual care. Yet, we did find an indication for positive intervention effect on general self-efficacy, which is known to be an important capacity to achieve social participation.

Ethical considerations in working with ChatGPT on a questionnaire about the future of work with ChatGPT

AbstractThe prospect of the use of Large Language Models, like ChatGPT, in work environments raises important questions regarding both the potential for a dramatic change in the quality of jobs and the risk of unemployment. The answers to these questions, but, also, the posing of questions to be answered, may involve the use of ChatGPT. This, in turn, may give rise to a series of ethical considerations. The article seeks to identify such considerations by presenting a research on a questionnaire that was developed by means of ChatGPT before it was answered, first, by a group of humans (H) and, then, through the use of a machine (M), ChatGPT. The language model was actually used to respond to the questionnaire twice. First, based on its data (M1), and, second, based on it being asked to imitate a human (M2). Based on the significant differences between the H and M answers, and, further, on the noticeable differences occurring within the M answers (the differences between the M1 and M2 answers), the article concludes by registering a cluster of three ethical considerations.