Risk Of Unemployment Research Articles

Health as predictor of unemployment. A population based study in Belgium

Abstract Background Health and employment are interrelated, but this can be both the result of social causation and health selection. Insights in the association between health and employment should be explored in different settings and countries because contextual factors may differ. In this study we investigate if at the Belgian population level, ill health leads to a higher risk of unemployment. Methods We used data from the Belgian health interview survey 2018 linked with administrative data from the compulsory health insurance including information on employment status in 2018 and 2019. The sample for this study consisted of people with a paid job, aged 18-64 year, with no record of having being unemployed in 2018 (n = 3769). Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess if the risk of becoming unemployed in 2019 varied in function of the health status assessed in the 2018 survey. Results After adjustment for age, sex, education and social support, the risk of becoming unemployed was significantly higher for people with moderate to very bad self-rated health compared to those in good health (OR 2.76; 95% CI 1.34-5.67). Similarly, unemployment in the year following participation in the survey was significantly higher among people with activity limitations because of health problems (OR 2.32; 95% CI 1.14-4.72). The higher the number of chronic diseases and conditions, the higher the risk of unemployment (OR 1.37; 95% CI 1.13-1.53). Specific predictors of unemployment were a history of serious depression in the past 12 months (OR 4.47; 95% CI 1.85-10.80) and hypertension (OR 2.54; 95% CI 1.08-6.00). Conclusions In Belgium, health problems are a risk factor of getting unemployed. Especially people with a history of serious depression in the past year have a higher risk to lose their job. The findings confirm the health selection of unemployment and the need for the labour market to invest in interventions to support people with health problems to keep or find a job. Key messages • As employment is a fundamental right, also for people with health problems, further efforts are needed to create an inclusive labour market, with also job opportunities for more vulnerable people. • To be able to understand better the link between health and unemployment at population level, longitudinal population data are needed including both dimensions.

Labor market participation in people with intellectual disability – a follow-up study in Sweden

Abstract Background Work is vital to people’s health and quality of life. The Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities affirms the right to work on an equal basis with others including an opportunity to earn a living by work, but evidence shows that people with intellectual disability (ID) are at greater risk of unemployment and social exclusion. Due to the lack of comprehensive data for longitudinal follow-ups, information on long-term labor market participation (LLMP) in people with ID is scarce. This study aimed to investigate factors of importance for LLMP in individuals with ID in Sweden. Methods The study was based on data from the upper secondary school for pupils with ID between 2001 and 2020 (N = 26,905) and from the longitudinal integrated database for health insurance and labor market studies. A sample of gainfully employed in 2011 (n = 2,719), was followed with respect to LLMP until 2020. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between educational, sociodemographic, and work factors and LLMP (i.e. gainful employment throughout the follow-up), were estimated stratified on sex. Results LLMP was twice as likely in men compared with women, OR 2.06 (1.78-2.58) as was work in the private sector. Factors of significance for LLMP in men and women alike were: completed national education program, OR 3.40 (3.06-3.86) and OR 2.91 (2.40-3.54), parents’ education; compulsory school in mothers’, OR 1.22 (1.06-1.41) and 1.24 (1.00-1.55) and in fathers’ OR 1.35 (1.17-1.56) and 1.49 (1.20-1.85), while municipality of residence was significant only in men, OR 1.30 (1.10-1.56). Conclusions Public health prevention for disadvantaged groups requires accurate and up-to-date knowledge. Using unique register-based data, this is the first study on LLMP in people with ID in Sweden. Knowledge on what social determinants may strengthen LLMP is important since limited LLMP increases the risk of missing out on health benefits that employment may offer. Key messages • There was a significant gender difference in long-term labor market participation in people with intellectual disability in Sweden. • There is a need for increased knowledge on what social determinants may strengthen long-term labor market participation in people with intellectual disability.

The impact of COVID-19 and the ERS on superannuation savings in Australia

COVID-19 has had a significant economic impact on Australia, and consequently on the superannuation savings of many individuals. To examine COVID-19’s heterogeneous effects across different industries and demographic groups, the impact on superannuation was assessed for 12 representative cameos using a range of Australian data, including Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA), ATO, ABS and APRA sources. The marginal impacts of sudden job loss, investment losses, investment switching and participation in the Early Release of Superannuation (ERS) scheme were each investigated in turn. The cameos highlight that some demographic cohorts faced several compounding challenges. For example, many ERS applicants were already facing financial hardship, were more likely to be younger, and faced a higher risk of unemployment. This highlights that COVID-19 has impacted different cohorts in different ways, depending on age, employment status and industry, and family situation, among other factors. JEL Classification: D14, D15, J26, J32

Unemployment insurance for the self-employed: A conceptual way forward

In this contribution we give common guidelines on how unemployment schemes for the self-employed could be developed in practice. These guidelines have been derived from national descriptions contained in this special edition on unemployment protection for the self-employed, or in other recent comparative contributions on the matter. Our reference framework is the EU Council Recommendation (2019) on Access to Social Protection, and more in particular the overall objective that social protection should be designed in a labour status neutral manner and, where necessary, adapted to the specific work situation of the professional groups covered. Applied to unemployment, the design of the scheme should be as similar as possible to that of unemployment insurance for wage earners. However, it is crucial to adapt the rules as specifically as necessary to the nature of self-employed work, such as, for example, the fact that the self-employed do not work for an employer. Starting from this basis, we developed key rules with regard to unemployment schemes for the self-employed. We did so by addressing the essential components of unemployment schemes: the definition of the unemployment risk, financing, access and entitlement conditions, and re-eligibility in case of repeated claims for unemployment benefits. We also address recent evolutions in the labour market, such as coverage when multiple activities are performed (combining activities as an employee and as a self-employed person), and elaborate on situations involving temporary closure of the self-employed activity (e.g. due to Covid-19) and partial unemployment. In conclusion, we provide some reflections on the apparent ongoing evolution of the risk of unemployment towards a broader income protection scheme, which not only provides income replacement in case of a final loss of professional activity or self-employed business, but also gives structural income support if the person loses income partially due to external economic and/or social reasons.

Educational, labour market and relationship outcomes in people with acne.

Although acne is associated with scarring, mental health comorbidities and bullying, little is known about its impact on socio-economic outcomes. To examine the association between acne and educational, labour market and relationship outcomes. We conducted a nationwide registry-based cohort study in Denmark. We included birth cohorts from 1982 to 1988 and compared those with and without acne identified using hospital diagnosis codes and redeemed prescriptions. Our main educational outcome was educational attainment. The main labour market outcomes were earned income at age 30 and long-term unemployment at any time before age 30. The main relationship outcomes were single partnership and childlessness by age 30. Outcomes were assessed using Poisson regression for binary outcomes and linear regression for continuous outcomes, adjusted for sex, calendar year, mother's socio-economic position and hormonal contraception use. Those with acne had a lower risk of not completing upper secondary education (relative risk (RR): 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.76-0.83) and higher education (RR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.88-0.91), with absolute differences up to 4 percentage points. Persons with acne had slightly higher income (mean percentile difference: 2.6%, 95% CI: 2.2-2.9) and lower risk of long-term unemployment than those without acne (9.8% vs. 11.4%; RR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.87-0.93). The prevalence of being single until age 30 was similar (19.7% vs. 20.1%; adjusted RR: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.94-0.98) but childlessness was slightly more prevalent (60.5% vs. 57.5%; adjusted RR: 1.03; 95% CI: 1.02-1.04). However, all associations were attenuated or lost in secondary analysis restricted to exposure-discordant siblings to address confounding from family-related factors. Acne during adolescence does not seem to affect long-term educational, labour market or relationship outcomes. However, there is a need for additional studies to validate the findings in untreated patients and different health and social systems.

A review of the future transport labour market: An EU approach

Mobility and transportation are a fundamental cornerstone of societies. They cannot be performed without a specific and varied workforce that keep all modes functioning. However, the transport sector currently faces many challenges including volatile high energy prices, labour and skills shortages, harsh working conditions, an ageing work force, and many labour relations’ issues. There are also deep and widespread market changes to confront in relation to automation and digitalisation, the move towards greener, cleaner technologies and sustainability. The risk of unemployment for certain jobs is evident. Transport workers and transport undertakings are thus confronted with the very challenging landscape to decarbonise the sector but also to address social sustainability and remain competitive in a fast-changing environment. This study makes use of a systematic review to analyse the main challenges that the land transport sector faces. This paper informs policy makers and relevant stakeholders on the current trends; highlights challenges and opportunities for transport workers and provides recommendations to help achieve that will result in a digital and fair, ethical, just, and green transition not only for the transport sector but also for the society as a whole.

Anxiety and Work Disability in Patients With Immune-Mediated Inflammatory Diseases: A Cross-Sectional Study From a Single Center.

Immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are chronic diseases that are associated with an inflammatory process with unclear etiology and occur in genetically predisposed individuals. In this study, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and rheumatic disease (RD) were examined. The aim of the research is to evaluate the relationship between IMID and state anxiety and work impairment in patients. A cross-sectional study was conducted in an outpatient clinic for rheumatology and gastroenterology at an Italian university hospital. A total of 476 patients (261 IBD and 215 RD) were considered. Patients diagnosed with IBD demonstrated significantly higher levels of anxiety, encompassing both trait and state anxiety, compared to those with RD ( p <.001). While trait anxiety exhibited a modest positive correlation with work productivity loss ( r =.163; p =.046), activity impairment showed a positive correlation with both state anxiety ( r =.243; p <.001) and trait anxiety ( r =.206; p =.002). The impact of anxiety on job performance and daily activities should not be underestimated, as it may elevate the risk of unemployment and absenteeism and lead to increased societal costs.

Le futur du métier de traducteur face à la révolution numérique : préoccupations et perspectives pour les bilingues

The Future of The Translation Profession in The Age of Digital Revolution: Concerns and perspectives for bilingual professionals The digital revolution has caused a significant shift in labour market policies across all sectors. The rapid advancement and widespread adoption of software and IT tools have led to an increased risk of job displacement for skilled professionals, as these tools enable even non-experts to perform tasks traditionally handled by specialists. This study explores the potential threat to employment faced by professional translators due to these technological advancements. The rise of artificial intelligence and machine translation (MT) has encouraged many bilingual individuals to enter the translation field, a trend that has raised concerns among linguistic researchers. These technological developments have also cast doubt on the value of language experts. This research addresses key questions: To what extent is the future of professional translators at risk? Do professional translators face significant competition in the Information Age? To answer these questions, this study employed both quantitative and qualitative research methods, including field data collection from bilinguals and professional translators. Questionnaires were administered first to bilinguals to gauge their motivations and then to professional translators to understand their concerns and perspectives. The data analysis provided clear insights that supported the study's hypotheses. The research suggests that professional translators may face substantial unemployment risks in the future. This is largely attributed to the increasing involvement of bilinguals in the field, driven by the proliferation of machine translation tools. The study highlights the relevance of connectivism and job prospection theories in understanding the challenges faced by professional translators and in addressing the rise of bilinguals in the workforce.

The post-pandemic era tourist guiding: evidence from professional tourist guides

ABSTRACT This research contributes to the literature by uncovering the perspectives of professional tourist guides on the tourist guiding profession in the post-pandemic era. Following a qualitative research approach, 29 semi-structured interviews were conducted with professional tourist guides working in different regions of Türkiye. The results illustrate that being physically demanding, the lack of work-life balance, unfair expectations of travel agencies, seasonality, and the necessity of constantly updating knowledge and skills are among the challenges of tourist guiding. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the future of tourist guiding emerged as tourist-guide and tourist-related impacts. Furthermore, future employment risks emerged as the high risk of unemployment and its mental results, vulnerability to crises, and the risk of unemployment at older ages due to declining performance in the future. The findings also emphasise the need for education and training, acquiring new skills, adapting to technology and new trends, continued vocational development, and understanding new tourist expectations in the post-COVID era for the future of tourist guiding.

Exploring the workplace factors and their influence on the employment outcomes for people with multiple sclerosis

BackgroundHigh unemployment rate of people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) is associated with substantial economic costs. Whilst the impact of MS symptoms and other disease-related factors on employment outcomes of PwMS has been assessed, limited evidence exists on the impacts of workplace factors. ObjectiveTo investigate the most common individual and group workplace factors associated with unemployment or a perceived risk of unemployment in PwMS, and to identify patient subgroups that are more susceptible to changes in employment status due to such factors. MethodsData from the Australian MS Longitudinal Study (AMSLS) on employment status and workplace factors were used. Fifteen workplace factors were classified under four groups: organisational, commuting, moving around at work, and equipment usage factors. Participants answered ‘Yes’ to each factor if it related to their unemployment and/or perceived risk of becoming unemployed and a group factor was considered “Yes” if at least one individual factor within it was answered as “Yes”. The proportions of “Yes” responses were calculated for both individual and group factors. Total number of individual factors was calculated and descriptive analyses and ordered logistic regression were used to summarize the total number of factors affecting each participant, and their association with participants’ occupations, sex, disability severity and disease duration. ResultsCommon workplace factors influencing employment were organisational (39.8 % perceived risk, 44.0 % lost employment), commuting (28.9 % perceived risk) and equipment usage difficulty (30.9 % lost employment). Common individual factors included inflexible working conditions, lack of suitable work, commuting difficulties, architectural barriers, and requirement to stand for long periods to use equipment. Professionals, blue-collar workers, and those with moderate/severe disability were more likely to report a higher number of workplace factors risking their employment. ConclusionsWorkplace factors undermine PwMS employment, with variations among subgroups based on occupation and disability severity. Understanding these barriers is crucial for supporting PwMS in the workforce.

Do temporary help agencies help? Employment transitions for low-skilled workers

We investigate the impact of working for a temporary help agency (THA) compared to being directly hired on the employment transitions of low-skilled male temporary workers aged 20 to 45. Using data from Spanish administrative records, we employ competing risk discrete-time duration models to analyze multiple temporary employment spells. Our analysis reveals the importance of accounting for short-duration dependence and workers’ unobserved heterogeneity. We find that, across all durations, agency workers are more likely to transition either to unemployment or to a new THA contract than their direct-hire counterparts. Transitions to permanent positions, although infrequent in our sample, are also more likely for agency workers. Our qualitative findings hold when unobserved heterogeneity is not controlled for. However, this model underestimates the effect of agency contracts on the risk of entering unemployment and overestimates the impact on the probability of re-entering THA. This suggests that positive self-selection plays a relevant role in explaining the higher persistence of THA employment, but not the associated higher risk of unemployment.

The Equitable Income Distribution in Islam Through Transmigration: Phenomenological Study of Merbau Village, Riau

Population movement between islands in Indonesia is known as transmigration. Since the colonial era, this program has existed, even pioneered by the Dutch government for the first time with the aim of obtaining more colonial benefits. Currently, the transmigration program is growing rapidly in the eyes of the Indonesian government. Even the people themselves also volunteered to carry out transmigration in order to get better livelihoods in new areas. Not infrequently among these communities who experience difficulties during the beginning after the move. So that this transmigration community does not find work causes unemployment everywhere and makes the Indonesian economy decline. The purpose of this study is to analyze how to control unemployment in Merbau village through fair income distribution according to the perspective of the Islamic economy. This research is descriptive qualitative and collects information from interviews with local residents and describes this control from the perspective of Islamic economics. The result of this study is to describe the model of unemployment risk control in Merbau Village from a sharia economic perspective, namely the wage system. The wage / ujrah system is imposed in accordance with the agreement of both parties and gives satisfactory results to each other. And also maintain the old culture of the community to live in harmony between residents even though they are different.

Subjective unemployment expectations and (self-)insurance

We study subjective unemployment expectations and their influence on economic behavior. We utilize a longitudinal data set combining survey elicited subjective unemployment expectations with administrative data on income, savings, and unemployment insurance. Our findings indicate that subjective expectations hold valuable predictive information about subsequent unemployment experiences. We find that individuals tend to overestimate their risk of unemployment. Moreover, higher unemployment expectations lead to a greater likelihood of enrolling in unemployment insurance and accumulation of liquid savings.

Awareness and perceptions of artificial intelligence in dentistry: A cross-sectional survey among Indian dental professionals

Introduction Artificial intelligence (AI) is inevitably going to impact healthcare including dentistry and will become an essential tool in medical diagnosis and decision-making. Dental professionals must be familiar with growing trends in dentistry such as AI and its future scope. Despite the positive developments in AI research, there are divergent perspectives on its benefits and risks among stakeholders. We intended to understand the knowledge, awareness, and perceptions of dental professionals towards AI and its applications in dentistry. Methods and Material A semi-structured, 25-item Google form questionnaire consisting of closed and open-ended questions was made and the link to answer the survey was circulated among postgraduate students, dental academicians, and practitioners across India in an online mode, and the responses were collected and analyzed. Results 83.3% of participants were aware of AI and its applications. Most of the participants understood the attributes, advantages, and disadvantages of AI. Interestingly 72% of participants agreed that they have witnessed AI being used in clinical practice and 92.7% agreed to use AI for diagnosis. 65.3% expressed concern over unemployment due to AI and 85% agreed that AI has ethical issues. Over 85% of participants agreed AI should be a part of the postgraduate dental curriculum. Conclusions We found that dental professionals are updated with AI technology and showed a willingness to adopt AI into dental practice. The participants lacked a deeper understanding of AI and concerned about the potential risk of unemployment resulting from AI and trusting AI alone in dental diagnosis. Keywords: Artificial intelligence, Cross-sectional survey, Dentist, Knowledge, Perceptions.

Generative AI Applications in Helping Children with Speech Language Issues

This paper reports how generative AI can help children with specific language impairment (SLI) issues by developing an AI-assisted tool to support children with challenges in phonological development in English, especially children with English as the secondary language in the United States. Children from bilingual families often experience challenges in developing proficiency in English pronunciation and communication, which has been exacerbated by remote learning during the pandemic and led to learning loss. School-aged children with speech problems require timely intervention because children with language disorders find it difficult to communicate with others, leading to social isolation and academic difficulties. The needed intervention is often delayed due to the high cost of speech services and the shortage of Speech and Language Pathologists (SLPs). Individuals with a history of SLI have an increased risk of unemployment. An AI-assisted Phonological Development (AI-PD) tool was prototyped, aiming to alleviate these challenges by assisting caregivers in evaluating children's phonological development, assisting SLPs in lesson preparation, and mitigating the severe shortage of SLPs.

The principle of adequate social protection in the European Pillar of Social Rights: Assessing the instruments used to realise its potential

Improving the social security protection of atypical workers has been high on the EU agenda in recent years. With the adoption of the European Pillar of Social Rights in 2017, the EU wished to break away from a decade of austerity measures. The EU further developed the right to adequate social protection in the Pillar through the Recommendation on access to social protection for workers and the self-employed. This instrument urges EU Member States to ensure adequate access to social protection for workers, regardless of their employment relationship, and the self-employed. As part of the EU's recovery strategy during and after the Covid-19 crisis, several financial instruments were developed to support EU Member States. Through the Temporary Support to Mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency, EU Member States received support for job retention schemes. The EU also adopted the Recovery Resilience Facility, which provided grants and loans. Another support instrument was the European Social Fund Plus. This article discusses those recent EU initiatives, focusing on unemployment and the protection of atypical workers and the self-employed. With the introduction of the European Employment Strategy (1997), a closer link was made at EU level between unemployment, increasing labour market participation and activation measures. Less attention was paid to ensuring adequate unemployment protection. In recent years, however, it appears that the EU has been playing an increasing role in providing funding for temporary support and in introducing changes to EU Member States’ policies.

Analysis of AIGC in Film and Television Production

The development of film and television is inextricably connected to the progress of science and technology. This paper commences by examining the utilization of AIGC in film and television production and its effects on the sector. It is determined that the implementation of AIGC in script production, scene production, post-production, and other areas reduces a great deal of time, production, and labour expenses, broadens the scope of film and television production, and offers the potential for inexpensive mass film and television production. Despite the progress made in the film and television industry, AIGC still has to confront problems such as a lack of logical consistency and emotional detachment, which necessitates human creators. It may also lead to the disappearance of creative works, a copyright crisis and the impairment of labour rights, with the risk of massive unemployment. It is essential to investigate the provisions of AIGC Guidelines.

What enables doctoral degree holders to get a job? A journey through doctoral students' satisfaction with educational services

PurposeDoctoral degrees are generally the highest level of education provided by educational institutions in Western countries. Nevertheless, doctoral degree holders – i.e. Philosophiae Doctors (PhDs) – struggle to find a job that matches their knowledge and expertise. This article investigates the effects that PhDs' satisfaction with different attributes of educational services has on their ability to obtain employment either in academia or outside it.Design/methodology/approachSecondary data were accessed from a nationwide survey performed in Italy between February and July 2014. More than 16,000 people who achieved a doctoral degree between January 2008 and December 2010 were involved in the analysis. The four-years' time-span was justified by the need to avoid potential biases produced by a short time lapse between data collection and the awarding of the respondents' doctoral degree. A logistic regression model was designed to shed light on the relationship between doctoral degree holders' satisfaction and their ability to find employment.FindingsThis study results suggested that the attributes of educational services had varying effects on the doctoral degree holders' ability to obtain work. More specifically, the perceived quality of research and methodological courses delivered by educational institutions and the quality of the technologies and digital resources available at the host university were found to positively affect the ability of doctoral degree holders to get a job in academia. Conversely, the satisfaction with the quality of the teaching activities was positively related to the doctoral degree holders' employability outside academia.Practical implicationsThe quality of educational services provided to students attending a doctoral degree course affects their ability to find work. Enhancing the quality of educational services may reduce the risk of unemployment amongst doctoral degree holders.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, few attempts have been made to investigate the interplay between the quality of educational services and doctoral degree holders' employability.

Labour market trajectories and unemployment of older workers in Europe after the Great Recession

AbstractMany European countries want to overcome the early exit from labour market which was widespread since the 1970s through pension reform and labour policies. The extension of working life is hindered by factors that the literature overlooks. This article focuses on the discontinuity of the late‐career caused by unemployment. The aim is to investigate whether older workers are at risk of unemployment and what are the transitions after spells of unemployment. The labour market trajectories of workers over 50s in 11 European countries from 2006 to 2019 were analysed, specifically after the Great Recession and before the Covid‐19 epidemic. It is based on longitudinal survey data from the generated Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe Job Episodes Panel. Event history analysis and sequence analysis were performed. Older employees are unlikely to face unemployment. The transition rate highlights the difficulty for older workers into re‐employment. A low education level increases the risk of unemployment and remaining unemployed. Data by country confirm the trend towards overcoming the transition from unemployment to early exit. Divergences concern the higher risk of being trapped in unemployment in Southern European countries such as Greece and Italy.

Optimal unemployment insurance in a THANK model

We characterize optimal unemployment insurance (UI) in a heterogeneous-agent model with unemployment risk and sticky prices. In the long run, the optimal reform calls for a lower replacement rate that raises vacancies and lowers unemployment. In the short run, the optimal reform raises the replacement rate initially to smooth real wage adjustments along the transition and attenuate short-run welfare losses. Once at its optimal level, the replacement rate should vary counter-cyclically in response to demand shocks. Productivity shocks generate quasi-efficient fluctuations and call for a quasi-constant replacement rate. The aggregate welfare gains from an optimal reform are large, around 1% of equivalent consumption. The aggregate welfare gains from an optimal UI policy over the business cycle are smaller, around 0.2%, and essentially vanish with flexible prices because the aggregate demand stabilization motive is muted.