History Of Unemployment Research Articles

Ideological Anachronism Involving Needle and Syringe Exchange Programs: Lessons From the Indiana HIV Outbreak.

Ideological Anachronism Involving Needle and Syringe Exchange Programs: Lessons From the Indiana HIV Outbreak.

Lifetime of Prevalence and Risk Factors of Problem and Pathologic Gambling in North Cyprus.

In this article, the results of the national survey of adult gambling behavior in North Cyprus (NC) in 2012 are presented. The aim of this study is to investigate the characteristics of adults' participation in gambling, and to determine the prevalence of 'problem and pathological gambling' in NC. The population of this study was formed from all the people living permanently in NC, speaking Turkish, and within the age group 18-65. Household interviews were conducted with 966 people. To obtain data, a 30 item questionnaire prepared by the researchers and a Turkish version of the Revised South Oaks Gambling Screen were used. Prevalence rates are compared with the results of the study conducted in 2007 using the same methodology and survey form. The lifetime prevalence of participating at least once in any of the 17 gambling activities investigated in the survey was 66.4%. 3.5% of the respondents scored as lifetime probable pathological gamblers and 9.2% as probable problem gamblers. Risk factors for becoming probable problem and pathological gamblers include being male, being in the 19-28 age group, having a high education level, having a job and being born in Cyprus. This study shows that the prevalence of problem gambling is high in NC and increasing gradually. NC has socio-cultural features such as a history of colonization, socioeconomic problems and high unemployment, similar to other high prevalence gambling regions, which is suggestive of the importance of socio-cultural factors on gambling behavior.

MDR-TB in Belarus, the role of outpatient care strengthening and social support

TB incidence and mortality in Belarus has been progressively falling from 54 to 41 and from 12.1 to 6.8 per 100000, accordingly, for the last 7years. Nevertheless, the number of HIV/TB co-infected rises dramatically. According to a recent nationwide drug resistance survey, MDR-TB was found in 32.3% of new and in 75.6% of previously treated TB cases. Results of treatment of MDR-TB are far from satisfactory (51% treatment success, 11% deaths).Risk factors for MDR-TB acquisition and unfavorable treatment outcome are the following: young age, drug and alcohol abuse, HIV, history of imprisonment, unemployment, and homelessness. Most of such events as treatment failure and loss to follow-up occur at the outpatient treatment phase, particularly in patients from the above-mentioned risk groups. One of the key elements of outpatient care strengthening is social support.Two operational research studies were conducted. One study with 40 MDR-TB patients included showed that treatment cost can be reduced by more than 5200 US dollars per patient using outpatient care with social support instead of existing care based on long-term hospitalization. Another study showed that MDR-TB patients with social support (n=1057) had better treatment outcomes compared with conventionally managed patients (n=3514): treatment success 70% vs. 53%; mortality 2% vs. 6%; treatment failure 27% vs. 40%.Along with adequate diagnostics and therapy, outpatient care strengthening and social support are important elements in achieving good treatment outcomes and reducing the cost of treatment of MDR-TB.

Disentangling the Mortgage Arrears Crisis: The Role of the Labour Market, Income Volatility and Housing Equity

Despite various efforts to address the mortgage arrears crisis, arrears remain at an elevated level. Designing policies to deal with such high levels of distress requires a deep understanding of the precise sources of the problem. Efforts to date, however, have been hampered by a lack of appropriate data. This paper relies on two new and unique datasets which overcome such issues. Specifically, using a combination of administrative loan-level data and a detailed survey of mortgage holders, we assess the role of the labour market, income volatility and housing equity in the mortgage arrears crisis. The results provide new insights on mortgage distress in Ireland; unemployment and housing equity are key drivers, as shown by previous research. However, the results also show that many borrowers experiencing arrears are currently employed. Many of these borrowers have suffered a significant drop in their income, a change in employment conditions or are in fragile employment, i.e. they are on a temporary contract, have been with their employer for a short time or have a history of unemployment. This shows that the current mortgage crisis, and efforts to prevent a further deterioration, requires more than simply targeting unemployment. Rather, such efforts should also aim to strengthen overall labour market conditions and job security.

Female Employment and Parental Leave: The Case of Poland

Abstract With the use of the Polish Social Security's administrative data for the period 1999-2011, nonparametric and Cox models, the author assesses the role of the means-tested child-raising allowance in shaping an effective period for parental leave and the impact of parental leave duration on the subsequent (continued) job tenure. The results suggest low income level (an eligibility criterion for child-raising allowance) loses any significant negative effect on the intensity of returning to a job as soon as the eligibility period for the allowance expires. Long periods of parental leave increase the intensity of transition to unemployment soon after the return to the interrupted job but they have only a minor impact on the intensity of transition to other jobs. The intensity of transition from the continued job to unemployment is also related to employment in the private/public sector, unemployment history and length of service.

The basic determinants of perceived increase in violent, sexual and benefit fraud crimes

Purpose– Given that how crimes are perceived by the general public influences their sense of community safety, police priorities and offending behaviour, and in light of little, if any at all, attention being paid to the determinants of such perception, the purpose of this paper is to examine their predictive value.Design/methodology/approach– In total, 150 English participants with diverse backgrounds (78 males and 72 females – mean age:M=24.3; SD=5.44) completed surveys on their perceived increase in violent, sexual and benefit fraud crimes, taking into account theoretically and empirically underpinned factors, like age, income, number of days unemployed in the last three years, number of years spent in formal education and machiavellianism.Findings– The multiple regression results suggest that participants with less formal education and less income were more likely to see a rise in violent crime. They also suggest that participants with less formal education and longer history of recent unemployment were more likely to see a rise in sexual crime. It turned out, however, that the recent history of unemployment was not a significant predictor of the perceived rise in benefit fraud – only a high machiavellianism score was.Research limitations/implications– This quantitative research paints a complex picture that could be complemented by follow-on qualitative studies.Practical implications– The overarching message from this relatively modest study, therefore, which is part of a much larger and more complex ongoing research project, is to inform the public on crime in approachable and mass data-driven ways rather than leaving this to sensation-driven and selective scenario-focused media.Social implications– Increasing people's sense of community safety is likely to improve their general well-being, community cohesion and trust in others without necessarily inclining them to take personal risks and falling victim to crime due to ignorance and gullibility. This, in turn, might help guide crime prevention strategies and contribute to the actual reduction in crime levels and safer communities.Originality/value– Not only does this article offer insight into people's perception of different crimes, addressing an important and neglected research deficit, but is also cautiously proposes the need for more professional education of the public about crime figures.

Ethnic differences in suicide behavior in Singapore.

This study examined the ethnic differences in stressors, risk, and protective factors among people who attempted suicide in Singapore. A retrospective chart review of 626 attempted suicide cases at a hospital in Singapore between 2004 and 2006 collected information on diagnosis according to DSM-IV-TR criteria. Chi-square tests was used to compare the sociodemographic characteristics, stressors, risk factors, and protective factors among Chinese, Malay, Indian, and other ethnic groups. Logistic regression was used to determine the odds ratios of having two or more stressors, risk factors, or protective factors for the four ethnic groups. Women were more likely than men to attempt suicide, although they also were more likely to have two or more suicide protective factors than men. In general, older people were more likely to have two or more suicide risk factors than the younger groups. Ethnic differences were found in history of psychiatric illnesses and unemployment among the risk factors, and for most of the protective factors, but none of the stressors. Indians were more likely to have two or more protective factors than were Chinese (OR of 7.74, 95% CI [1.04, 8.72]. Future suicide prevention programs should target young adults and strengthen the protective factors among different ethnic groups.

Prediction of future labour market outcome in a cohort of long-term sick-listed Danes.

BackgroundTargeted interventions for the long-term sick-listed may prevent permanent exclusion from the labour force. We aimed to develop a prediction method for identifying high risk groups for continued or recurrent long-term sickness absence, unemployment, or disability among persons on long-term sick leave.MethodsWe obtained individual characteristics and follow-up data from the Danish Register of Sickness Absence Compensation Benefits and Social Transfer Payments (RSS) during 2004 to 2010 for 189,279 Danes who experienced a period of long-term sickness absence (4+ weeks). In a learning data set, statistical prediction methods were built using logistic regression and a discrete event simulation approach for a one year prediction horizon. Personalized risk profiles were obtained for five outcomes: employment, unemployment, recurrent sickness absence, continuous long-term sickness absence, and early retirement from the labour market. Predictor variables included gender, age, socio-economic position, job type, chronic disease status, history of sickness absence, and prior history of unemployment. Separate models were built for times of economic growth (2005–2007) and times of recession (2008–2010). The accuracy of the prediction models was assessed with analyses of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and the Brier score in an independent validation data set.ResultsIn comparison with a null model which ignored the predictor variables, logistic regression achieved only moderate prediction accuracy for the five outcome states. Results obtained with discrete event simulation were comparable with logistic regression.ConclusionsOnly moderate prediction accuracy could be achieved using the selected information from the Danish register RSS. Other variables need to be included in order to establish a prediction method which provides more accurate risk profiles for long-term sick-listed persons.

A history of unemployment or sick leave influences long-term functioning and health-related quality-of-life after severe traumatic brain injury

Primary objective: The consequences of pre-morbid factors in adults with severe traumatic brain injury have not been widely addressed. This study aimed to determine whether being unemployed or on sick leave before injury influences long-term health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) and functioning in patients with severe traumatic brain injury.Subjects: Fifty-one consecutive patients were studied; aged 16–65 years, with severe traumatic brain injury who were admitted to Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, from 1999–2002.Methods: The patients were assessed once, 2–11 years after trauma. Data from the time of injury were combined into a validated prognostic model to adjust for injury severity. Data on sick leave and unemployment before injury were gathered from the Swedish social insurance agency. Outcomes were measured with the Short Form-36 Health Survey, the Glasgow Outcome Scale–Extended, and a self-report questionnaire specifically designed for this study to measure functioning.Results: In a multivariate analysis, a history of sick leave/unemployment predicted a worse long-term global outcome, more problems with personal activities of daily living and worse HRQoL.Conclusion: These results should be considered when refining outcome predictions and optimizing rehabilitation interventions for patients with severe traumatic brain injury.

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE AND CULTURAL TRANSMISSION: THEORY AND APPLICATION TO EUROPEAN UNEMPLOYMENT

This paper emphasizes the two-way causality between the provision of unemployment insurance and the cultural transmission of work ethic. Values affect the size of the moral-hazard problem and, hence, the policy to be implemented. Conversely, when parents rationally choose how much effort to exert to raise their children to work hard, they form expectations on the policy that will be implemented by the next generation. In this context, I determine the dynamics of preferences across generations and show that the different cultural traits, i.e. high and low work ethics, are complementary. The model could generate a lag between the introduction of unemployment insurance and a deterioration of the work ethic. Relying on a calibration, I argue that it can account for a substantial fraction of the history of European unemployment since World War II. As this explanation is compatible with the co- existence of generous unemployment insurance and low unemployment in the 1950s and 1960s, it could be seen as an alternative to the dominant story that relies on the occurrence of large shocks since the 1970s. Supportive empirical evidence is provided.

Reconciling theory and empirics on the role of unemployment in mortgage default

Empirical models of mortgage default typically find that the influence of unemployment is negligible compared to other well known risk factors such as high borrower leverage or low borrower FICO scores. This is at odds with theory, which assigns a critical role to unemployment in the decision to stop payment on a mortgage. We help reconcile this divergence by employing a novel empirical strategy involving simulated unemployment histories to measure the severity of attenuation bias in loan-level estimations of default risk due to a borrower becoming unemployed. Attenuation bias results because individual data on unemployment status is unobserved, requiring that a market-wide unemployment rate be used as a proxy. Attenuation is extreme, with our results suggesting that the use of an aggregate unemployment rate in lieu of actual borrower unemployment status results in default risk from a borrower becoming unemployed being underestimated by a factor more than 100. In addition, our analysis indicates that adding the unemployment rate as a proxy for the missing borrower-specific unemployment indicator does not improve the accuracy of the estimated model over the specification without the proxy variable included. Hence, aggregate portfolio-level risk estimates for mortgage guarantors such as FHA also are not improved.These views represent those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. This is a revised version of a paper that previously circulated under the title “Unemployment and Unobserved Credit Risk in the FHA Single Family Mortgage Insurance Fund (NBER Working Paper No. 18880). John Grigsby provided excellent research assistance. We appreciate the helpful comments of Andrew Haughwout, Wilbert van der Klaauw, the editor (Stuart Rosenthal) and referees, but remain responsible for any errors.

Credit Rating Agencies: the Importance of Fundamentals in the Assessment of Sovereign Ratings

The aim of this paper is to investigate the significance of a set of macroeconomic variables in the assessment of the sovereign ratings provided by the three main credit rating agencies in different periods in time and for countries belonging to different categorizations. Ratings have a great economic importance as they constitute the main drivers for attracting foreign investments and can influence the dynamics of interest rates. By grouping the countries according to levels of development and indebtedness, we provide the analysis of the weights attributed to each one of the macroeconomic indicators included in the analysis. Furthermore, it is of interest to examine how ratings are constructed and if they exhibit a historical coherence that goes beyond the economic cycles. The analysis rests on an unbalanced panel of 139 countries in the period 1975-2010. In order to provide an answer to ratings’ historical coherence, we selected two sub-periods: 1975-1996 and from 1997 onwards. Static estimates findings show that per capita GNI, inflation, unemployment, fiscal balance, government debt and default history significantly affect ratings, while GNI growth and current account balance are less relevant. Furthermore, Granger causality results underline that a one-way causality runs from average ratings to economic growth.

Credit Rating Agencies: The Importance of Fundamentals in the Assessment of Sovereign Ratings

The aim of this paper is to investigate the significance of a set of macroeconomic variables in the assessment of the sovereign ratings provided by the three main credit rating agencies in different periods in time and for countries belonging to different categorizations. Ratings have a great economic importance as they constitute the main drivers for attracting foreign investments and can influence the dynamics of interest rates. By grouping the countries according to levels of development and indebtedness, we provide the analysis of the weights attributed to each one of the macroeconomic indicators included in the analysis. Furthermore, it is of interest to examine how ratings are constructed and if they exhibit a historical coherence that goes be yond the economic cycles. The analysis rests on an unbalanced panel of 139 countries in the period 1975-2010. In order to provide an answer to ratings’ historical coherence, we selected two sub-periods: 1975-1996 and from 1997 onwards. Static estimates findings show that per capita GNI, inflation, unemployment, fiscal balance, government debt and default history significantly affect ratings, while GNI growth and current account balance are less relevant. Furthermore, Granger causality results underline that a one-way causality runs from average ratings to economic growth.

Homicide-suicides compared to homicides and suicides: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Homicide-suicides, the murder of one or several individuals followed by the suicide of the perpetrator, are rare but have devastating effects on families and communities. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies comparing perpetrators of homicide-suicides with perpetrators of simple homicides and suicides and examined the proportion of firearm use and its correlation with firearm availability. We searched Medline and Embase from inception to July 2012 and identified 27 eligible studies. Perpetrators of homicide-suicides were older and more likely to be male and married to or separated from their victims than perpetrator of simple homicides or suicides. Influence of alcohol and a history of domestic violence or unemployment were less prevalent in homicide-suicides than in homicides. The proportion of firearm use in homicide-suicides varied across countries and was highest in the USA, Switzerland and South Africa, followed by Australia, Canada, The Netherlands and England and Wales, with a strong correlation between the use of firearms and the level of civilian gun ownership in the country. Our results indicate that homicide-suicides represent a distinct entity, with characteristics distinguishing them both from homicides and suicides.

Hostility and unemployment: A two-way relationship?

Previous studies have indicated that personality can lead to selection into unemployment, and that unemployment can adversely influence psychological well-being. This study examined the relationship between trait hostility and unemployment, hypothesizing a two-way relationship. Participants were from the Young Finns study that began in 1980, including 2097 (56% women) individuals followed over 15years from 1992 to 2007. Short-term unemployment within the preceding year was reported in 2001 and current unemployment status was reported in 2007. Long-term history of unemployment was reported in 2001 and 2007. Results showed that high hostility is associated with higher risk of becoming unemployed and having longer unemployment duration. Being unemployed predicted higher hostility in the short-term, but not over the long-term after adjustments for participant's own and parental educational level. Thus, personality factors are involved in the self-selection into unemployment and unemployment can influence short-term personality change.

The transition between work, sickness absence and pension in a cohort of Danish colorectal cancer survivors

ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of socioeconomic and clinical factors on the transitions between work, sickness absence and retirement in a cohort of Danish colorectal...

Socioeconomic Disadvantage and Indicators of Risky Alcohol-drinking Patterns

The purpose was to establish how the association between socioeconomic disadvantage and risky drinking depends on the indicator of risky alcohol-drinking patterns. Alcohol-drinking Finnish men (n = 9316) and women (n = 11,888) aged 20-54 years at baseline participated in the Health and Social Support (HeSSup) postal survey in 1998. Socioeconomic disadvantage was measured by low educational level, history of previous unemployment among those currently employed, current unemployment, being on disability pension and history of experiencing financial hardships. Indicators of risky drinking were hazardous weekly intake (≥24 and ≥16 Finnish standard drinks for men and women, respectively), frequency of intoxications/drunkenness, hangovers and alcohol-induced pass-outs. The study participants were also followed up for 7 years for alcohol-specific hospitalizations and deaths. Socioeconomic gradient in risky drinking was observed across all indicators of risky drinking, but the gradient was relatively larger in patterns of risky drinking representing high-intensity drinking occasions such as alcohol-induced hangovers and pass-outs. No marked gender differences were observed. These results highlight the need to take into account the multidimensionality of risky alcohol-drinking patterns as a contributing factor in the socioeconomic gradient in alcohol use.

Urban neighbourhood unemployment history and depressive symptoms over time among late middle age and older adults

BackgroundLittle is known about how a neighbourhood's unemployment history may set the stage for depressive symptomatology. This study examines the effects of urban neighbourhood unemployment history on current depressive symptoms...

Behavioural correlates of dual diagnosis among women in treatment for substance abuse

While co-occurring disorders induced by mental illness and substance use can be debilitating, prioritizing care for such dually diagnosed individuals remain challenging. Determinants of dual diagnosis among women (n = 299) were examined in a substance-use treatment facility in Midwestern United States. Participants were mostly <40 years old, with histories of unemployment, trauma, and criminal justice involvement. One-third of the participants met DSM-IV criteria for dual diagnosis. Assessments included the Addiction Severity Index, and self-reported risky sexual behaviors. Binary logistic regression analyses revealed transactional sex, lower score on Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) and low family and social support to be predictive of higher likelihood of dual diagnosis. Practice, policy and research implications are suggestive of holistic and integrated mental health treatment intervention plans for this population.

Is there a difference? A comparative study of mobile intensive treatment team and continuing care team consumers’ clinical and other characteristics

Assertive community treatment has become widely accepted as a vehicle for providing treatment for mental health consumers who require intensive community follow up due to their numerous and lengthy presentations to hospital. This study was designed to identify the clinical differences in consumers who access case management through community mental health services and those who receive services through a mobile intensive treatment team (MITT). The findings indicate that consumers in MITT had higher dynamic risk factors, receive involuntary care through the Mental Health Act and had increased physical health care needs. In addition, MITT consumers were socially isolated and most were living alone with a history of unemployment. The findings identified that MITT clients were significantly more disabled on the indicators assessed and were likely to require the more intensive treatment provided through assertive follow-up. The smaller caseloads found in assertive models of case management need to be maintained to enable clinicians to deal with clients who have complex needs.