Unemployment Dynamics Research Articles

Compartmental Model for Unemployment Dynamics in Ghana using Caputo Fractional Derivative

The study develops a compartmental model for unemployment dynamics in Ghana. The compartmental model is first developed through the method of compartmental designs under certain assumptions such as, all entrants into the labor force qualify for any job, some of the employed become unemployed with time, some of the unemployed go through skill training, among others. The compartmental model is further represented in terms of integral form, and the value of the kernel is thereafter substituted as a power law correlation function to achieve a Caputo fractional derivative model. The Caputo model is analyzed to ascertain its invariant and boundedness, its fixed points and its stability. The unemployment basic reproduction number \(\Re_0\) which determines the threshold of recruitment is analyzed using the Next Generation Method Approach, and the global stability for the unemployment-free equilibrium is also analyzed through the approach of Lyapunov function. The results from the analysis show that, there is attraction of all the solution of the model in \(\mathbb{R}_+^4\) since the region is positively invariant. Again, the results indicates that, the model has two fixed point. Thus, unemployment-free equilibrium and risky-unemployment equilibrium. Notwithstanding, the analysis of both the local and global stability of the model show that, the unemployment free equilibrium is local asymptotically stable (LAS) for \(\Re_0\) <1, and global asymptotically stable (GAS). The results indicate that, the model can examine the unemployment dynamics decision making.

Beyond Parametric Bounds: Exploring Regional Unemployment Patterns Using Semiparametric Spatial Autoregression

Abstract Background It is a well-known phenomenon that nonlinearities that are inherent in the relationship among economic variables negatively affect the commonly used estimators in the econometric models. The nonlinearities cause an instability of the estimated parameters that, in particular, are unable to capture a local relationship between the response and the covariate. Objectives The main aim of the paper is the simultaneous consideration of spatial effects as well as nonlinearities through an advanced semiparametric spatial autoregressive econometric model. The paper seeks to contribute to empirical studies of regional science focused on the application of semiparametric spatial autoregressive econometric models. Methods/Approach We outline an approach that can be used to correct nonlinearities by incorporating a semiparametric idea within the framework of econometric models. We use an expansion by penalised basis splines that are highly flexible and are able to capture local nonlinearities between variables. Results In the empirical study, we fit different econometric models that attempt to explain the dynamics of the European Union's regional unemployment. Conclusions The results show that regional unemployment exhibits significant spatial dependence, indicating interconnectedness among neighbouring regions and suggesting the adoption of a semiparametric spatial autoregressive model for improved modelling flexibility, surpassing traditional parametric approaches.

Navigating the Tides of Change: A Comprehensive Analysis of Employment and Unemployment Dynamics in Indonesia

Navigating the Tides of Change: A Comprehensive Analysis of Employment and Unemployment Dynamics in Indonesia

The alpha beta gamma of the labor market

We access a long panel dataset of US workers to document the extent to which individuals are heterogeneous with respect to their pattern of transitions across employment states. We find that heterogeneity is well approximated by three latent types: αs, βs and γs. Workers of type α leave unemployment quickly and, once they find a job, they are likely to keep it for more than 2 years. Workers of type γ find employment slowly and, once they do find a job, they are likely to leave it within 1 year. We use our empirical findings to calibrate a search-theoretic model in which workers are heterogeneous with respect to the parameters governing their employment transitions. We find that αs move quickly out of unemployment to employment because they have large gains from trade, and they are likely to stay on a job for more than 2 years because their productivity is similar in different jobs. In contrast, γs exit unemployment slowly because their gains from trade are small, and they are likely to leave a job within 1 year because they are much more productive in a small fraction of jobs than in the majority of jobs. We find that a negative shock to aggregate productivity leads to a large and persistent increase in unemployment that is mainly driven by γ-workers. The predictions of the model align well with the unemployment dynamics observed during the Great Recession.

Economic Growth in Indonesia: Dynamics of Poverty, Unemployment, and Health Budgets

Even with Indonesia's impressive recent economic expansion, issues including poverty, unemployment, health care spending, housing, education, and labor productivity continue to be serious problems. International organization databases, government reports, academic publications, national statistics agencies, and academic publications are some of the sources that can be used for secondary quantitative data analysis encompassing 34 provinces from 2018 to 2022. The results show that unemployment, poverty all have a detrimental effect on economic growth. On the other hand health budget allocations all have a favorable impact. The study concludes that while investments in health budgets positively influence growth by enhancing human capital and, poverty, unemployment negatively impact economic growth. This study's conclusion about the correlation between the variables can offer insightful information to practitioners across a range of fields and public policy.

Dynamics of youth unemployment in ASEAN-5 emerging economies through macroeconomic analysis

This research investigates youth unemployment dynamics in ASEAN-5 emerging economies using a macroeconomic framework. Employing the panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology, it examines the effects of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation rate, population growth and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on youth unemployment rates. Empirical results reveal that GDP and inflation significantly influence youth unemployment over the long term. This highlights the interplay between economic expansion and youth employment prospects. Conversely, neither population growth nor FDI significantly impacts youth unemployment. This suggests that increasing population or attracting foreign investments alone may not directly translate to better employment opportunities for the youth. Instead, robust economic growth and stable inflation rates are crucial. These findings underscore the need for ASEAN-5 policymakers to develop strategies fostering economic growth and controlling inflation to mitigate its adverse effects on youth employment. The research provides insights into how targeted economic policies can better address youth unemployment challenges, creating a conducive environment for job creation and economic stability, ultimately benefiting the youth workforce.

Revealing the New Nexus in Urban Unemployment Dynamics: The Relationship between Institutional Variables and Long-Term Unemployment in Colombia

Abstract The aim of this study is to assess the impact of various institutional variables on the long-term unemployment rate (LAPU) in the Colombian urban labor market. Vector autoregressive models are estimated using microdata from the Great Integrated Household Survey (GEIH), which has national coverage. Monthly data were analyzed for the 13 major capital cities and their metropolitan areas, as well as for the group of 11 intermediate capital cities, resulting in a total of 24 main urban labor markets in Colombia. The dataset includes unionized individuals, individuals with verbal and written contracts, non-labor income, unemployed individuals with subsidies, and individuals receiving severance payments. The results indicate that the growth in the number of unionized employees and non-labor income contributes to increasing the persistence in the duration of unemployment in Colombia. A key finding is that a positive growth in the ratio – gap between individuals with written contracts versus verbal contracts reduces LAPU. This provides evidence of how reducing information asymmetries in the Colombian labor market can improve labor market outcomes and contribute to medium- and long-term social welfare in Colombian urban centers.

Navigating the Tides of Change: Analyzing Indonesia's Employment and Unemployment Dynamics from 2011 to 2023

Navigating the Tides of Change: Analyzing Indonesia's Employment and Unemployment Dynamics from 2011 to 2023

Artificial intelligence and unemployment dynamics: an econometric analysis in high-income economies

Artificial intelligence and unemployment dynamics: an econometric analysis in high-income economies

Mathematical modeling of unemployment dynamics with skills development and cyclical effects

In the present work, a new mathematical model is introduced to investigate the effects of skills development on the governance of cyclical unemployment. A system of non-linear differential equations is formed and analyzed. In the modeling approach, we categorize the considered workforce into three distinct classes: the fundamentally unemployed Us, employed individuals E and cyclically unemployed people Uc. We also make the assumption that some government programs can qualify individuals who have been out of work for a period to reintegrate and prevent them from becoming long-term unemployed. The qualitative analysis of differential equations is used to analyze the proposed model. It has been demonstrated that the suggested model has only one equilibrium that is globally asymptotically stable under particular conditions. The impact of key parameters is analyzed by examining their sensitivity. In order to verify the important theoretical results, numerical illustrations of the model have been performed. The obtained results demonstrate that the development of skills among the cyclically unemployed is effective in reducing unemployment.

Role of informal sector to combat unemployment in developing economy: A modeling study

In developing countries, informal sector is the primary job provider for a significant portion of the workforce. This study aims to analyze how jobs in the informal sector affect the unemployment dynamics of developing nations. To achieve this goal, we formulate a nonlinear mathematical model by categorizing the considered workforce into three distinct classes: unemployed, employed, and self-employed, and include a separate dynamic variable to represent vacancies within the informal sector. The proposed model is analyzed using the qualitative theory of dynamical systems. A threshold quantity known as the reproduction number is derived and using this, one can compute the job generation rate necessary to stabilize the system. It is observed that variations in the reproduction number lead to qualitative changes, such as transcritical (forward or backward) and saddle-node bifurcations in the formulated system. Moreover, we propose an optimal control problem to determine an optimal strategy for government policy implementation in enhancing the employment rate of unemployed individuals and promoting the self-employment of informal employees inside the informal sector. Further, the analytical findings are validated numerically. The obtained results suggest that promoting the self-employment of informal employees for job generation effectively reduces unemployment.

Exploring the multifaceted dynamics of unemployment in South Africa

This study aims to examine the causes and impacts of unemployment in South Africa using data from the 2022 General Household Survey conducted by STATS SA. Specifically, it seeks to analyze the demographic and socio-economic factors influencing unemployment rates, explore the implications of unemployment on individuals and society, and identify policy implications for addressing this pressing issue. Unemployment remains a significant challenge in South Africa, with persistent high rates that disproportionately affect certain demographic groups. This study addresses the need for an in-depth analysis of unemployment dynamics, providing valuable insights into its causes, consequences, and potential policy interventions. The study utilizes data from the 2022 General Household Survey conducted by STATS SA, encompassing a total population of approximately 18738 households. The dataset offers comprehensive information on employment status, demographic characteristics, education levels, and household income. Employing the statistical software SPSS, employing a combination of descriptive statistics, cross-tabulation, and a binary logistic regression model, the research uncovers significant disparities across demographic groups, shedding light on the challenges faced by individuals at the household level and advocating for targeted policy interventions. Gender disparities emerge starkly, with female-headed households constituting 44% of the sample yet reporting lower employment rates (34.7%) compared to male-headed households (59.6%). Regression analysis confirms this trend, highlighting the gender-based hurdles in accessing employment opportunities. Furthermore, concerning trends in youth unemployment are revealed, with nearly 40% of individuals under 35 reported as unemployed. Regression analysis demonstrates a negative association between age and unemployment, emphasizing the need for targeted youth employment initiatives. Additionally, the study underscores the critical role of education in enhancing employment prospects, with higher levels of education associated with lower unemployment rates. Racial disparities in unemployment rates are also elucidated, with the Black/African population group facing the highest unemployment rate at 52.3%, significantly higher than the Asian/Indian (37.8%) and White (40.4%) population groups. Regression analysis confirms these disparities, necessitating targeted efforts to address structural barriers and promote racial equity in the labor market. The study recommends, implementing gender-sensitive employment policies, enhancing youth skills development programs, and promoting equitable access to education and training opportunities for all groups.

Impact of skills development on youth unemployment: A fractional‐order mathematical model

The global impact of high unemployment rates has significant economic and social consequences. To overcome this, various skill development programs are initiated by governments of developing countries. But the problem of unemployment is still increasing day by day. So, there is a pressing necessity to revise the current policies and models. Therefore, this research proposes a fractional‐order mathematical model that examines the impact of various skill development programs for youths. The proposed model incorporates fractional‐order differential equations to capture the complex dynamics of unemployment. The main objective of this research is to examine the impact of training programs aimed at enhancing the abilities of unemployed individuals, with the ultimate goal of reducing the overall unemployment rate. The reproduction number is calculated using the next‐generation matrix approach, which is crucial for both the existence and stability analysis of the equilibria. When the reproduction number is less than 1, the employment‐free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable. The employment‐persistence equilibrium point emerges only when the reproduction number exceeds one. We also explore the possibility of transcritical bifurcation and investigate the impact of skill development on the unemployment rate. We conduct numerical simulations to validate our analytical findings, further supporting our qualitative conclusions. These simulations help illustrate the unemployment dynamics and confirm the stability and behavior of the equilibrium points predicted by the mathematical model.

Exploring the Phillips Curve: Inflation and Unemployment Dynamics in Pakistan

Using a strict analytical framework, this study investigates the dynamic link between inflation and several macroeconomic variables (unemployment, crude oil prices, and nominal exchange rate) in Pakistan from 1991 to 2019. Utilizing a diverse array of statistical methodologies, including unit root analysis, cointegration analysis, and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), we assess the applicability of the Phillips Curve theory in predicting fluctuations in inflation. According to our findings, Pakistan exhibited a steady Phillips Curve over the study period, with all models demonstrating good tracking performance of changes in inflation. Furthermore, the CUSUM and CUSUMsq tests validate the stability of our estimates. This analysis contributes to our understanding of Pakistani inflation dynamics and has implications for economic policy in the nation.

Institutional measures to support the Education – Labour Market system in regions of Russia

The paper analyses the dynamics of unemployment in the Central Federal District regions in 2018-2022. The main issues are problems at the Russian labour market in 2020-2023, and measures of their state regulation taken at the federal and regional levels. The paper considers the measures of state support for the Russian labour market during the COVID-19 pandemic and economic restrictions, and describes their consequences. Also there is an assessment of the role of secondary vocational education system, implementation of state programs and national projects, i.e. the federal projects «Professional», «Young Professionals». Paper listed the professions and specialties in colleges of the Ivanovo and Yaroslavl regions. On the example of the Ivanovo region we consider the establishment of educational and production centres (clusters). The study considers goals, objectives, stages, directions of development, institutional environment, services of the National Qualifications System of the Russian Federation, the essence of Independent Qualification Assessment in details. The study also highlights the role of the state for a secondary vocational education system development.

Understanding Unemployment Dynamics and Labor Market Behavior in South Korea: Employing Mccall Dynamic Programming Approach

This paper investigates labor market dynamics from 1990 to 2023 using the McCall dynamic programming search model, offering insights into individual decision-making, economic conditions, and policy implications. Convergence trends in wage predictions underscore the model's reliability, highlighting its utility for predicting wage outcomes over time. The policy implications emphasize the importance of balancing the duration of unemployment and the considerations of the wage level in policy design. In light of the analysis, policymakers and employers should consider the trade-offs between unemployment duration and wage level when designing policies and compensation practices. The insights provide guidance for policymakers, employers, and job seekers in navigating the complexities of the job market.

Technology and gender: Understanding the changing dynamics of female unemployment in the G7 countries

Technology has profound effects on labour market dynamics. Numerous studies have highlighted the unique opportunities and challenges that technological change presents to specific demographic groups. The aim of the study is to examine the long-term impact of technological changes within organisations on female unemployment at a macro level. From the perspective of the contingency approach and economic growth theories, the research conducts a panel cointegration analysis employing CCE-MG and AMG long-term panel cointegration estimators. The data on the female unemployment rate, the percentage of R&D expenditure in GDP and the ICT patents in total patents in the G7 countries for 1985–2020 is sourced from the OECD statistics. The analysis indicates the presence of an effect of technological change on the female unemployment rate as well as the national variations in their relationship. In particular, in three countries out of seven (Germany, the UK, the USA), there is the relationship between technological advancements and female unemployment. For the most part, increases in the percentage of R&D expenditure and ICT patents augment the female unemployment, though in Germany a rise in R&D expenditure leads to a decrease in it. The results will contribute to understanding the impact of technology-driven changes in organisations on gender-based labour inequality. The research highlights the complexity of the impact of technological advancements on the female employment and underscores the need for shaping related government policies by considering each country’s specific conditions.

ДЕТЕРМІНАНТИ ПОВЕДІНКИ ПОКУПЦІВ НА СПОЖИВЧОМУ РИНКУ УКРАЇНИ В УМОВАХ ВОЄННОГО СТАНУ

The purpose of the study is to identify typical determinants of consumer behavior under martial law. The article attempts to analyze consumer behavior and its impact on the consumer market of Ukraine. The key factors determining consumer behavior in the consumer market of Ukraine under conditions of military operations have been identified. The dynamics of indices of consumer sentiment in Ukraine were analyzed, in particular: indices of inflation expectations, consumer sentiment, current situation, economic expectations, expectations regarding the dynamics of unemployment, and their interrelationships were also analyzed. The trends revealed by the change in the consumer behavior of the population of Ukraine under the conditions of martial law are substantiated. Recommendations for business and government on effective management of the consumer market and ensuring economic stability in conditions of military conflict have been developed.

Investigating unemployment hysteresis in South Africa

AbstractThis paper investigates hysteresis in South Africa's unemployment. First, we test the presence of hysteresis in unemployment using traditional stationarity tests and non‐linear transformation methods to identify two further characteristics of hysteresis, namely, remanence and selective memory. In the second part of the paper, we estimate a simple insider–outsider model using a Bayesian vector autoregression methodology to identify the shocks driving unemployment dynamics. The main finding is that mark‐up shocks and negative productivity shocks are the main drivers of unemployment, with demand shocks playing a secondary role. Nominal wages are not responsive to real shocks and are an important component of inflation. These results point to the difficulty of absorbing the current level of unemployment without a significant increase in the flexibility of goods and labour markets. At the same time, the evidence suggests that, if reforms are being implemented, demand policies can play a significant role in improving employment and growth, reversing the structural unemployment evident in the data.

Navigating the Impact of Inflation on Unemployment Dynamics in the IT Sector

Navigating the Impact of Inflation on Unemployment Dynamics in the IT Sector