Real Exchange Rate Undervaluation Research Articles

REAL EXCHANGE RATE, MERCANTILISM AND THE LEARNING BY DOING EXTERNALITY

This paper examines the degree to which the learning by doing (LBD) externality calls for an undervalued exchange rate. We obtain mixed results. For an economy where the LBD externality operates in the traded sector, real exchange rate undervaluation may be used to internalize this externality, if the LBD calls for subsidizing employment in the traded sector. If the LBD externality is embodied in aggregate investment, the optimal policy calls for subsidizing the cost of capital in the traded sector, and there is no room for undervalued exchange rate policy.

Real exchange rate assessment in the GCC countries — a trade elasticities approach

This article adopts new panel econometric methods to assess real exchange rate alignment with economic fundamentals in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), using a theoretical approach popularized by Paul Krugman in the late 1980s. Results from panel econometric applications of the Krugman model yield low levels of real exchange rate undervaluation in the GCC countries, although indicating persistence of undervaluation – albeit statistically low – into the medium term. They also show that the recent real exchange rate undervaluation could be characterized as due to ‘short-run frictions and adjustment costs’ associated with continued depreciation of the US dollar to which GCC countries’ currencies are pegged. Further, failure to find supporting evidence for the Marshall–Lerner condition underscores the propriety of using fiscal policy rather than exchange rate policy to address recent inflationary pressures and help resolve lingering global financial imbalances.

Precautionary and mercantilist approaches to demand for international reserves: an empirical investigation in the Indian context

This paper empirically investigates the importance of precautionary and mercantilist approaches to international reserves in the Indian context using monthly data from 1993:06 to 2007:03. The ARDL approach to cointegration is used to estimate as in the long-run relationship between reserves and its determinants. The empirical results show that the impact of the volatility of Foreign Institutional Investment which captures the precautionary motive, and that of undervalued real exchange rate which is associated with the mercantilist view on reserves are statistically significant in the long run. We conclude that both the precautionary and mercantilist motives explain reserve accumulation in India over the study period.

An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Policy. Part I: The Experience of Fast Development

This article presents the first part of the work on how instruments and methods of the growth promotion should change as a country approaches the level of advanced economies in terms of welfare and the quality of institutions. We describe the evolution of economic policies in Western countries and also in countries that became known as "economic miracles" during their catch up development. Our analysis allows to trace the major directions of such evolution: from import substitution to export orientation, from regulation of import tariffs to non-selective policy of the real exchange rate undervaluation, from import of technology to domestically based research and development, from creation of large companies to support of small and medium-size firms.

Maintaining Competitiveness Under Equilibrium Real Appreciation: The Case of Slovakia

This paper evaluates competitiveness in Slovakia and estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate for the koruna. Slovak wages and prices are found to have been relatively low even when adjusted for differences in relative income and productivity, suggesting an undervalued real exchange rate. However, recent rapid nominal appreciation has reduced most or all of this undervaluation and has brought the real exchange rate near or above equilibrium. The productivity-driven equilibrium real appreciation rate during 2005-09 is estimated at close to 3 percent per year but can be lower with the help of fiscal consolidation.

Maintaining Competitiveness Under Equilibrium Real Appreciation: The Case of Slovakia

This paper evaluates competitiveness in Slovakia and estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate for the koruna. Slovak wages and prices are found to have been relatively low even when adjusted for differences in relative income and productivity, suggesting an undervalued real exchange rate. However, recent rapid nominal appreciation has reduced most or all of this undervaluation and has brought the real exchange rate near or above equilibrium. The productivity-driven equilibrium real appreciation rate during 2005?09 is estimated at close to 3 percent per year but can be lower with the help of fiscal consolidation.

Outward-Oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985

The long run trade orientation of an economy is measured in this article by an index which measures the extent to which the real exchange rate is distorted away from its free trade level by the trade regime. The technique for estimating a cross country index of real exchange rate distortion uses the international comparison of prices prepared by Robert Summers and Alan Heston. Resource endowment constitutes the norm and real overvaluation or undervaluation relative to this norm reveals whether incentives are directed to the domestic or international market. The index is constructed based on data for GDP/capita average price level in US dollars 1976-85 and GDP growth rate/capita 1976-85. Other sections are devoted the comparison of the procedure for 117 countries between 1976-85 and an examination of the empirical relationship between outward orientation and economic growth and sensitivity analysis. The results indicate that Latin America generally was overvalued by 33% relative to Asia and Africa was overvalued by 86%. The real exchange rate distortion index supports the view that Asian countries are more outward oriented. Asian economies have lower price levels which reflect relatively modest protection and incentives oriented to external markets. Latin American countries with moderately high price level and African countries with very high price levels reflect strong protection and incentives directed to production for the domestic market. An alternative specification which eliminates the dummy variables for Africa yields similar results with slightly lower magnitude; i.e. overvaluation is 60% instead of 86% for Africa and Latin America is overvalued by 39% instead of 33% over Asia. A table is provided which indicates by country the distortion and variability of the real exchange rate the GDP growth the 1976 GDP/capita and the investment rate. Another finding was that there is a significant negative relationship between distortion of the real exchange rate and growth of GDP/capita after controlling for the effects of real exchange rate variability and investment level with both the original specification and the alternative. The growth rate/capita of Latin American and African countries would increase 1.5-2.1% with a shift to move outward oriented trade policies. This gain as well as devaluation of the real exchange reate trade liberalization and maintenance of a stable real exchange rate would contribute to positive growth rates. In the analysis of the poorest 24 countries the result was that only rate distortion and not variability and investment rate explained the growth rate. The gain for Ghana for example of adopting the trade policies and exchange rate of Bangladesh would be 5% to its growth.