Undeclared Activities Research Articles

A two-part measurement error model to estimate participation in undeclared work and related earnings

In undeclared work research, the estimation of the magnitude of the phenomenon (i.e., the amount of income and/or the percentage of workers involved) is of major interest. This has been done either using indirect methods or by means of ad hoc surveys such as the Eurobarometer special survey on undeclared work, our motivating study. The extent of undeclared work can be measured by means of two different outcomes: the event of working off-the-book (binary variable) and, when the event occurs, the amount of earnings deriving from the undeclared activity (continuous variable). This setup has been typically modeled via the so called two-part model: a binary choice model for the probability of observing a positive-versus-zero outcome and then, conditional on a positive outcome, a regression model for the positive outcome. We propose an extension of the two-part model that goes in two directions. The first regards the measurement error that, given the very nature of undeclared activities, is most likely to affect both the outcomes of interest. The second is that we generalize the linear regression part of the model to allow individual-level means. We also conduct an extensive simulation study to investigate the performance of the proposed model and compare it with traditional approaches.

Undeclared activities on digital labour platforms: an exploratory study

PurposeThis paper aims to explore the prevalence of undeclared activities conducted on digital labour platforms, and then to discuss what policies are likely to be more effective in order to prevent the growth of the informal activities on these platforms.Design/methodology/approachTo depict the profile of the digital worker conducting undeclared activities, the sectors where undeclared activities are more prevalent and the effectiveness of deterrent policies, data are reported from 2019 Special Eurobarometer survey covering the European Union member states and the UK.FindingsThe finding is that 13% of undeclared activities are conducted on digital labour platforms. This practice is more common amongst men, those married or remarried, those living in small/middle towns, in sectors such as repairs/renovations, selling goods/services, assistance for dependant persons, gardening and help moving house. The higher the perceived sanction, the lower the likelihood of undertaking undeclared activities on digital labour platforms. Intriguing, a higher risk of detection is associated with a higher likelihood to use digital labour platform for undeclared activities.Practical implicationsThe attitudes toward risk can be interpreted closer to the gaming context, and not to the working environment, looking at platform workers as being involved in a state versus individual game. Policy makers should consider improving the correspondence of laws and regulations between countries and offering operational assistance for suppliers and consumers.Originality/valueThis is the first paper to explore the prevalence of undeclared activities conducted on digital labour platforms and to outline the policy measures required to reduce this practice.

State-Level Concept and Scope of Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement for Verification of Undeclared Nuclear Material and Activities

The safeguards verification measures of comprehensive safeguards agreement (CSA) of non-nuclear-weapon states (NNWS) with the international atomic energy agency (IAEA) for verifying presence or absence of undeclared nuclear material and undeclared facilities and activities using the provisions of Additional Protocol (AP) is well recognized. Recently, the IAEA has proposed State-Level Concept (SLC) for verifying the presence or absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in the state within the provisions of the CSA. A comparison of the AP and SLC provisions has been made to explain the scope of verification under the SLC.

Investigating if the Financial Markets Performance Affects the Shadow Economy: Additional Evidence From EU Countries

The shadow economy also known as the informal or unobserved or underground economy, is a phenomenon that affects not only emerging markets and developing countries but also advanced economies. In general, this undeclared economic activity is hard to measure given its hidden nature in addition to its relation with unlawful activities. Nevertheless, apart from the legal aspects that may appear, shadow economy has negative implications in terms of tax revenue and social security contributions for the nations. To this end, an extensive literature has explored the measurement issues as well as the root causes of this phenomenon proving that the underground economy constitutes a significant portion of the overall economy in a number of countries. This paper tries to investigate the relationship between the shadow economy and the financial markets. This paper employs a number of panel data regression models to detect the association between the financial market metrics and the shadow economy (as a% of GDP). The outcome of this paper is that it finds evidence that increased market capitalization, GDP per capita and FDI as well as low unemployment and inflation rates contribute to low levels of shadow economy. This can be of value to policy makers and the competent authorities of the countries that wish to find means to contain their shadow economy.

Establishment of environmental sampling baseline of a nuclear facility using large geometry-secondary ion mass spectrometry (LG-SIMS)

The Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control (KINAC) operates the “environmental sampling program” which includes the collection, screening, analysis of samples, and evaluation of the resulting data. The goal of this project is to set up the nuclear material baseline in domestic nuclear facility, so that any future sampling results can then be evaluated using the facility baseline as a reference. For this purpose, 18 swipe samples from three points of the nuclear facility were collected, and the screening test using monochromatic micro-focusing X-ray fluorescence was conducted, followed by particle analysis of the collected swipe samples. The particle analysis was conducted using large geometry-secondary ion mass spectrometry. The MMXRF map was effectively applied for making a decision to select particles from samples for further particle analysis. Based on the results of particle analysis, the baseline for each selected point of the nuclear facility was established, and these datasets will be used as reference for verifying the absence of undeclared activities at the facility in the future. The results showed that the established baseline of the nuclear facility was consistent with the declared activities.

Undeclared Work in Ukraine: Evidence from the 2020 Student Survey

This paper presents the results of the first of its kind survey on the undeclared work in Ukraine, performed by the students of the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy. This is a pilot study based on 133 observations collected in March-April of 2020 in Ukraine. The sample mostly consists of young individuals residing in urban areas, single, without children, and more females as compared to males. To work undeclared means to have any paid activities that are lawful but not declared to the public authorities. The paper discusses who works undeclared in Ukraine, the educational attainment, the employment status and the economic activity of undeclared workers. Almost half of the respondents estimate the share of the population of Ukraine who perform undeclared work at the level of 43 per cent. Almost all admit knowing other undeclared workers. The risk of being detected for undeclared work is perceived to be low by almost half of the interviewees. The most popular undeclared activities are tutoring, sales, marketing, working as a waiter/waitress, an analyst, an employee in consultancy and construction. The income from formal work is observed to be lower than from undeclared work. The mean net income for formal work is under UAH 5,000 per month, while the mean net income for undeclared work is between UAH 5,000-10,000. The most common reasons for performing undeclared work are willingness to earn more, easiness to find a job, and avoiding paying taxes. Finally, the paper presents the list of recommendations to tackle the undeclared work in Ukraine, the most popular of which were as follow: to reduce the income tax, to increase fines for undeclared work, to introduce penalties for undeclared work not only for employers but also to employees, to strengthen administrative responsibility of employers, and to ease the tax system. JEL classification: E26, J46 Manuscript received 30.04.2020

Neutron tomography of two different internal structures in dry cask storage

Given the increasing quantity of spent nuclear fuel stored at nuclear plants across South Korea, the demand for dry storage in South Korea has been on the rise over the past few years. It is also necessary to develop a new safeguard technique that can effectively indicate internal configuration changes caused by any undeclared activities, such as diversions, misuse, or any theft of encapsulated spent nuclear fuel assemblies. Therefore, the present study proposes a passive neutron tomography method based on the result from a feasibility test via an MCNP simulation. As the first step of examination, the authors designed a new passive neutron tomography system, employing He-4 gas scintillation detectors (S670E, Arktis Radiation Detectors Ltd., Switzerland) newly developed to measure both thermal and fast neutrons simultaneously without any moderators. Monte Carlo simulations for two different cases (Case I and II) were then carried out in order to investigate the potential of the developed system. Each case was also simulated with five different variables. As for the simulations, Case I was executed under the hypothesis that some of the spent fuel assemblies would be discharged when empty space exists in the casks. Case II, the condition of which was identical to Case I except that the empty spaces in the casks are filled with dummy materials, was executed. The results of the simulations indicate that the system offers the capability to investigate the integrity of spent fuel assemblies in a cask visually. Further studies will help to find solutions to the attenuation by high-Z dummy materials and the degradation of the spatial resolution when only central assemblies are discharged from a cask.

Characteristics of Undeclared Work in Service Sector in Countries of South East Europe

Abstract The undeclared work is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon that has been present in all countries, regardless of its social and political establishment. Notwithstanding, the empirical evidence suggests that informal economy is more prevalent in countries with lower levels of GDP. Furthermore, the informal economy is present in sectors with lower level of capital and higher level of labour intensity. Therefore, the theory and everyday experience imply that the informal economy is more widespread among the services than the goods sectors. This paper provides an overview on the informal work and unofficial economy in the services sector in the former socialist countries in South East Europe. For the reduction of undeclared activities, it is necessary to simplify the procedures for establishing small businesses, to stabilize the tax system, to ensure high tax morale and trust in society and towards institutions, and to decrease the state regulatory burden.

Ukrainian Undeclared Work Survey: First Findings

This paper presents the first findings of the Ukrainian Undeclared Work Survey (UUDWS) that was conducted in the end of 2017. UUDWS is a direct method that aims to estimate the size and the nature of the undeclared work in Ukraine. This is the first survey of its kind in Ukraine and it takes into account both the demand and the supply side of the undeclared work in Ukraine. Our findings reveal that about 7 % of the respondents admitted having worked undeclared in the past 12 months, whereas about 46 % know someone who works undeclared, and every third respondent estimated that at least 50 % of the population of Ukraine work undeclared. The majority of the undeclared workers are between 35 to 54 years old, live in urban areas, and consider themselves asunemployed, employees, and self-employed. The main undeclared activities provided include home maintenance or home improvement services, selling farm produced food, gardening, car repairs, and selling goods/services associated with their hobbies. Among the main reasons for working undeclared are difficulties to find a regular job, seasonal nature of the work, common practice to work undeclared, the fact that the State does not do anything for people, and mutual benefit from undeclared work. The results contend that Ukrainian employees have low protection in terms of their salary, as a significant part is paid in the “envelope”. Finally, informal work generates on average a lower income than the formal one. In our research in progress, we address the perceptions and acceptance of undeclared work in Ukraine, as well as assess its main determinants.Article received 30.04.2018

Researching the Main Causes of the Romanian Shadow Economy at the Micro and Macro Levels: Implications for Sustainable Development

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that were established by the United Nations for the year 2030 are considered the blueprint for reaching a sustainable future through addressing poverty eradication, education, social protection, environmental protection, climate change, health, job opportunities, and strong institutions. Until now, sustainable development has focused mainly on the formal sector, somehow neglecting the potential contributions of the informal sector to sustainable futures. In this context, the paper aims to analyze the main causes of the Romanian shadow economy (SE) both at the micro and macro levels, and how they can make a considerable impact on achieving a more sustainable future. The main purpose of the paper is to highlight the relevance of knowing the main determinants of this phenomenon, emphasizing that keeping the incidence of the shadow economy and its causes under control could offer an alternative in the process of achieving sustainable development. In order to do that, we use an improved MIMIC (Multiple Causes Multiple Indicators) specification of the causal variables that is grounded in an evidence-based approach through using the points of view of the Romanian entrepreneurs. Their opinions are based on a national representative survey that is based on quarterly data covering the period 2000–2017. The empirical analysis pointed out the roles of tax avoidance, bribery, a lack of trust in public officials, the poor quality of business legislation, the poor government support for entrepreneurs, high social contributions, a relatively high of corruption, high tax rates, and uncertainty about regulation policies in increasing incidences of shadow economic activity. The macroeconomic results that were revealed to be the main causes for the Romanian SE were self-employment, unemployment, part-time employment, and the lack of trust in public institutions. Therefore, policymakers need to focus on building reliable and transparent institutions with a lower level of corruption, regulations, and bureaucracy, regaining people’ confidence in public institutions, and elaborating effective strategies for tackling the undeclared activities that will contribute to the achievement of sustainable development desideratum by the fulfillment of two main SDGs. These are Goal 8: Decent work and economic growth, and Goal 16: Peace, justice, and strong institutions.

Safeguards and security risks at the (very) front end of the nuclear fuel cycle

ABSTRACTHistorically, there have been limited international controls at the very front end of the nuclear fuel cycle, which consists of mining, processing, transportation, and conversion of natural uranium. However, an evolving framework of nuclear-security treaties along with International Atomic Energy Agency clarifications of the materials subject to its safeguards obligations are increasing the coverage of source materials, raising the question of how new and traditional uranium suppliers should handle safeguards and security in the production of uranium. We use a risk framework to assess the likelihood and consequences of different proliferation risks. Although the consequences for proliferation are generally low, risks to the very front end are different for safeguards (state diversion) and nuclear-materials security (unauthorized removal by non-state actors). For safeguards risks, cases of diversion or undeclared activities are concentrated at conversion facilities, while theft or trafficking of front-end material represents a relatively small percentage of total security incidents, concentrated in countries with lower levels of nuclear-materials security. We conclude that safeguards and security obligations should be commensurate with the risks. An appropriate response should involve a risk-based, graduated approach to nuclear security and a flexible, more clearly framed approach to safeguards.

How to measure the unmeasurable: Project Grey developing capacities and capabilities for tackling undeclared work

AbstractThe term “not directly observed” or “the underground economy” refers to those economic activities that should be included in the GDP estimation but which are not recorded in the statistics business surveys or tax and administrative data used in the calculation of the estimates of national accounts because they are not directly observable. The unofficial or informal economy contains that part of the economic activity that is difficult to measure. Thus, in addition to the complex issue of defining the underground production, there is an even more demanding task of measuring it. Hitherto in the literature, various estimation methods of unofficial economy have been proposed and their results differ significantly. The goal of this article is to provide an overview of the various methods of its measurement. The unobserved economy poses estimation problems of economic aggregates that can be differentiated as the total lack of information and the distortion of available information. There is no universal optimal approach applicable to all countries or even to the same country at different periods. In the attempt to limit the underground economy, it is much better to obviate the causes than penalise the consequences. It is necessary to simplify the procedures enabling citizens to formalize their undeclared activities, to provide a tax system that is as stable as possible and a tax and regulatory burden that is as low as possible. What is crucial is the improvement of institutions, professionalization of civil service and removal of the huge impact of politics in the societies.

RISK-ANALYSIS OF NUCLEAR MATERIALS CONTROL FOR EXCLUSION OF UNAUTHORIZED NUCLEAR ACTIVITY

The paper examines the conditions of nuclear materials (NM) security management at the sites of nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) from non-proliferation point of view. Applied to the non-proliferation the conditions for acceptable risk were defined. The basic levels of NM control have been set. On the base of acceptable risk concept the issues of risk management were considered. The task of unacceptable risk area suppression was formulated. Requirements to the NM control effectiveness were evaluated for various scenarios of undeclared activity (inside and outside of NFC). The role of the out-of-site control in creating NM protection in-depth was demonstrated.

Undeclared Work in Croatia: A Baseline Assessment

Undeclared Work in Croatia: A Baseline Assessment

Technical Negotiations in a Political Environment

Despite a political environment fraught with core policy differences, between 1979 and 1983, six governments and two international safeguards directorates—the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Euratom Safeguards Directorate—negotiated an agreement to preserve the core verification principles behind the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). At first, even agreement to talk was in doubt. Other governments questioned US motives; they wondered whether US motives in promoting the International Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation had been to evaluate or to prevent non-nuclear weapon states from deploying uranium enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing technologies. In addition, Germany and Japan disagreed with the United States on whether NPT safeguards were to address undeclared materials or activities. Notwithstanding this environment, the participants reached agreement first to negotiate, and then on specific technical measures, even when the approach implied a policy consensus where none existed. At the conclusion, agreement was reached on specific technical measures for safeguards at gas centrifuge uranium enrichment plants, and all participating states, including two nuclear weapon states, made diplomatic commitments to adopt this approach for current and future centrifuge plants. This article examines the factors that facilitated agreement and considers what lessons can be learned for future efforts to solve complex technical issues in a politically charged environment and in the absence of complete agreement even on the objectives to be realized.

Primary studies on particle recovery of swipe samples for nuclear safeguards

Environmental sampling plays a significant role in nuclear safeguards. Isotopic ratio in uranium-bearing particles from swipe samples provides important information for detecting undeclared activities. Particle recovery which is the primary step of particle analysis, would affect the following analysis. The particle recovery efficiency of ultrasoneration recovery and vacuum suction-impact recovery were measured by alpha spectrometer with standard particles produced via aerosol spray pyrolysis method. The conditions of ultrasoneration were optimized and both recovery methods were evaluated. Finally, a procedure of particle recovery for unknown swipe samples was set up.

New methodology for uranium analysis in swipe samples for nuclear safeguards purposes

Environmental swipe sampling for safeguards purpose has been used by International Atomic Energy Agency since 1997, being a powerful tool to detect undeclared materials and activities. This work describes a new methodology for swipe samples analysis based on ultrasound-assisted acid leaching and compares it with traditional total digestion bulk analysis. The proposed method requires few preparation steps, decreasing the risk of contamination, reduced amounts of reagents and a good option to extract uranium from swipe sample. In a real case study, the swipe samples were collected in a conversion plant at IPEN/CNEN, Brazil. The measurements were carried out by ICP-MS and the results showed relative error lower than 0.96 % for uranium isotopic ratios for the certified reference material (NBS U200). The uncertainties were estimated by following the ISO GUM, with a confidence level of 95 %. The uncertainties percentage for n(235U)/n(238U) ratio of the samples ranged from 2.5 to 4.3 %. The values of uranium isotopic ratio obtained for each method demonstrate the viability of using the methodology proposed in this work.

A case study of temporary work agencies in the Norwegian construction sector

The temporary work agency sector in Norway is diverse and growing. Since the EU enlargements of 2004 and 2007, it has also experienced a large influx of workers from the new EU Member States, especially in construction. This has led to more informal and undeclared business activities in the hiring industry. In this article we show some of the consequences of this development. We also discuss the impact of various national regulations in this sector and whether new EU regulation, namely the EU Directive on temporary agency work, might improve the situation.

INVESTIGATING THE RUBBLE OF SYRIA'S SECRET REACTOR

Damascus has severely impeded an investigation by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) into Syria's construction of a covert nuclear reactor, which was destroyed in a 2007 Israeli air strike. Pressing Damascus to cooperate with the inquiry is necessary to ascertain that there are no other undeclared activities in Syria, to determine the role of North Korea in the construction of the reactor, and to help prevent future clandestine efforts. With Damascus doing its best to avoid the investigation, securing Syrian cooperation will require adept diplomacy backed by the prospect of special inspections and, if necessary, a referral to the UN Security Council. The case of Syria's secret reactor highlights areas in which the IAEA needs buttressing, from the enhanced sharing of information, to reporting that is less political and more forthright. The case also illustrates the downside of politicizing IAEA investigations and supports the new director's apparent intent to return the agency to its core technical tasks.

Determining indoor air quality and identifying the origin of odour episodes in indoor environments

A methodology for identifying volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and determining air quality of indoor air has been developed. The air samples are collected using pump samplers by the inhabitants when they perceive odorous and/or discomfort episodes. Glass multi-sorbent tubes are connected to the pump samplers for the retention of VOC. The analysis is performed by automatic thermal desorption (ATD) coupled with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC/MS). This methodology can be applied in cases of sick building syndrome (SBS) evaluation, in which building occupants experience a series of varied symptoms that appear to be linked to time spent in the building. Chemical pollutants concentrations (e.g., VOC) have been described to contribute to SBS. To exemplify the methodology, a qualitative determination and an evaluation of existing VOC were performed in a dwelling where the occupants experienced the SBS symptoms. Higher total VOC (TVOC) levels were detected during episodes in indoor air (1.33 +/- 1.53 mg/m3) compared to outdoor air (0.71 +/- 0.46 mg/m3). The concentrations of individual VOCs, such as ethanol, acetone, isopropanol, 1-butanol, acetic acid, acetonitrile and 1-methoxy-2-propanol, were also higher than the expected for a standard dwelling. The external source of VOC was found to be an undeclared activity of storage and manipulation of solvents located at the bottom of a contiguous building.