Unconventional Energy Resources Research Articles

Application of coupled hydrodynamic and thermal Lattice–Boltzmann simulation on permeability estimation of hydrate-bearing sediment during hydrate dissociation processes

Natural gas hydrates, which are plentifully distributed in ocean floor sediments and permafrost regions, are considered a promising unconventional energy resource. The current hydrate production approaches aim at breaking the thermodynamic equilibrium state to stimulate hydrate dissociation that releases methane and water molecules, which causes formation porosity and permeability alteration. Efficient estimation of permeability during hydrate dissociation is essential to evaluate the economic feasibility for gas production from hydrate-bearing sediment. In this paper, we developed a coupled hydrodynamic and thermal Lattice–Boltzmann (LB) method to rigorously model the coupled processes of mass transfer, conjugate heat transfer, and fluid flow during the hydrate dissociation. We then carried out numerical simulation on the dissociation processes of hydrate formation with the three most common hydrate distribution morphologies, pore-filling, grain-coating and dispersed, under two production approaches that are depressurization, and depressurization with thermal intervention. Our simulation results indicated that the coupling of gas transport and heat transfer has significant impact on pore geometry evolution, especially pore connectivity, during hydrate dissociation processes due to the endothermic nature of the dissociation processes. Therefore, it is vital to consider the coupling effects for estimation of hydrate formation permeability through numerical simulations.

Unconventional hydrocarbon prospectivity of the Paleoproterozoic Fraynes Formation in Manbulloo S1, Northern Territory

The Paleoproterozoic Fraynes Formation in the Birrindudu Basin is a chronostratigraphic equivalent to the prospective Barney Creek Formation in the McArthur Basin and yet a comparable understanding of its source potential is lacking. As part of Geoscience Australia’s Exploring for the Future program, this study aims to assess the hydrocarbon generating potential and shale gas prospectivity of the Fraynes Formation in the exploration drill hole Manbulloo S1 through the reconstruction of the original source-rock characteristics and well log interpretation. Internal units inside the Fraynes Formation were defined according to sedimentary facies. The hydrocarbon generation potential was estimated from the calculated original total organic carbon content, hydrogen index and thermal maturity data measured from bitumen reflectance data. The shale total porosity was re-interpreted from bulk density logs by removing the organic matter effect, adding organic porosity for the organic-rich shales, and updating the water saturation. The maximum amount of gas generated from the organic-rich source rocks is 3969, 2769 and 1912 Mcf/a-ft assuming the kerogen compositions of 100% Type I, mix of 50–50% Type I and II, and 100% Type II, respectively. The richness of organic matter and interpreted water saturation (<100%) imply favourable shale gas prospectivity in the Fraynes Formation. This work expands our knowledge on the potential unconventional energy resources in the west of the greater McArthur Basin.

Biomass-Based Microgrid: A Case Study on its Aspects in the State of Punjab in India

The microgrid is an emerging power system. It works on the interconnection of renewable energy resources (RES) such as solar, wind and biomass, which is a promising field for researchers to explore the scope of power production from unconventional energy resources. Various combinations of RES like solar, wind, biomass and small-hydro power plants are available at different geographical locations. As a result, the combined use of various RES is drawing more attention and is frequently employed as an alternative to energy based on fossil fuels. Economic facets of these systems are suitably promising to consider them for raising the growth of power generation capability in developing countries. Objective of this paper is to presents a detailed study of the biomass-based hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES) in terms of their cost of energy and carbon emission. Moreover, the deployment of biomass-based power generation technology in Indian and international energy scenarios has been discussed showing the availability along with the availability of RES in Punjab, India. From the literature review it reveals that a viable configuration of microgrid which can generate power by direct combustion and gasification of biomass should be proposed and optimized to ensure more reliability and less carbon footprints in power generation.

Investigating the suitability of North Dakota fly ash as fluid loss reducing additive in densified water-based drilling fluid

Fluid loss circulation control during drilling operations is becoming more challenging as exploration moves from conventional to unconventional energy resources. The process of controlling filtrate loss during drilling operation necessitates the right design of drilling fluid that is capable to build an impermeable thin filter cake layer and permit a loss of a reasonable amount of filtrate volume into the formation. It is essential to understand the dynamics that play out between particle morphology of drilling mud additives to assess the sealing efficiency of the loss-reducing additives. As a result, a lot of materials were suggested as fluid loss-reducing materials, which also give thin filter cake thickness. This study investigates the suitability of a coal-fired plant waste (fly ash), as an alternative supplement for filtration agents to improve the quality of the filter cake layer that is built using ilmenite (FeTiO3) derived densified drilling fluid. The ilmenite-derived densified water-based mud samples containing 0, 1, 2, and 3 lb./bbl of fly ash were investigated. To gain an understanding of the pozzolanic influence of class C fly ash on ilmenite-weighted water-based mud, tests were conducted at reservoir conditions according to API specifications. The results from drilling fluid tests were benchmarked against the API standard range of values and contrasted with a control drilling fluid with no-fly ash added. It has been found that mud samples that include fly ash have better filtration properties. The openings in the filter cake were sealed by the amorphous structured fly ash particles, which created an impermeable filter cake. In Mud-4 and Mud-5, where the filtrate volume was reduced by 75% and 79%, respectively, the influence of particle size distribution to form a good sealant and a further reduction in filtrate loss was observed.

A MATHEMATICAL STUDY ON THE EFFECT OF MOLAR RATIOS OF THE REACTANTS FOR BIODIESEL PRODUCTION IN SC-CO2 MEDIUM

The present global situation is so alarming that the conventional energy resources are decaying day by day. This adverse situation encourages us to introduce unconventional and sustainable energy resources like biodiesel. The main source of biodiesel is the non-edible vegetable oil (Jatropha curcas oil) and it is produced by chemical catalytic method. But recently supercritical method has also been proposed as an alternative cost-effective method for its production. A good quality of biodiesel can be produced in a Supercritical-Carbon dioxide medium. The productivity of biodiesel preparation through supercritical method depends on molar ratio of the reactants (water and methanol). In this research article, a set of nonlinear differential equations has been formulated based on concentrations of Triglyceride, Diglyceride, Monoglyceride, Methanol, Free fatty acid, Water, Glycerol and Biodiesel. Our study is based on the effect of the molar ratios of the reactants and how we can get a cost-effective production of biodiesel. The validity of our model is attained by experimental results. The analytical results are also verified by our numerical findings

Geochemical Characteristics and Geological Significance of Black Shale at the Bottom of the Mufushan Formation in the Lower Cambrian, Lower Yangtze Platform, South China

Black shale, as an important unconventional energy resource, has attracted significant attention in recent years. By studying its sedimentary and geochemical characteristics, it is possible to reconstruct ancient depositional environments and paleoclimatic conditions. The Lower Cambrian black shale is widely distributed in the Lower Yangtze region, but its tectonic background and provenance have been subject to debate. In this study, we conducted geochemical testing and analysis on samples collected from the basal black shale of the Mufushan Formation in the Mufushan section, Nanjing. The Th/Sc-Zr/Sc diagram indicates that the black shale of the Mufushan Formation has not undergone sedimentary recycling. Analysis of major element ratios, rare earth element (REE) distribution patterns, δEu, (La/Yb)N, and the La/Th-Hf and La/Yb-∑REE discrimination diagrams suggest that the source rocks of the black shale mainly consist of granites and sedimentary rocks rich in ferromagnesian minerals, representing felsic rocks derived from the upper crust, with some involvement of mafic rocks. Considering the provenance attributes, geological age relationships, and tectonic evolution of the South China continent, the granite component in the source rocks is inferred to have formed during Neoproterozoic magmatic activity, and the source area corresponds to the Jiangnan Orogenic Belt. Analysis of K2O + Na2O-SiO2, K2O/Na2O-SiO2/Al2O3, La-Th-Sc, Th-Co-Zr/10, and Th-Sc-Zr/10 diagrams suggests that the source area of the Mufushan Formation black shale was a passive continental margin.

Study of Nitrogen Compound Migration during the Pyrolysis of Longkou Oil Shale with Thermal Bitumen as the Intermediate

Oil shale is an unconventional energy resource with high nitrogen content. In this study, XPS, GC–MS and ESI FT-ICR MS were carried out to investigate the nitrogen compound migration during pyrolysis, with thermal bitumen as the intermediate. The results showed that the yield of thermal bitumen was highest when the reaction temperature was 380 °C. In the process of pyrolysis, amines and some nitrides generate ammonia gas due to the hydrogen transfer process, or they generate low-grade amines, which subsequently dissolve in pyrolysis water due to bond breakage during the pyrolysis process. As determined by GC–MS analyses, the basic components in shale oil are mainly quinoline compounds. Benzocarbazole and dibenzocarbazole compounds, such as C1-benzocarbazoles, C2-benzocarbazoles and C3-benzocarbazoles, were detected via ESI FT-ICR MS in thermal bitumen.

Numerical simulation of direct shear tests on gas hydrate-bearing sediments using the discrete element method

Natural gas hydrate is a potential unconventional energy resource. Understanding the mechanical behavior of gas hydrate-bearing sediments (GHBS) is important to ensure the safe and efficient exploitation of natural gas hydrate and prevent geohazard problems. This study employs discrete element method to investigate the mechanical properties of GHBS with different hydrate saturations under various vertical stresses, and a series of direct shear tests, which requires less computational consumption than triaxial or biaxial tests. Comprehensive analyses of macroscopic and microscopic mechanical behaviors, including shear strength, internal friction angle, cohesion, shear band, average coordination number, and crack number evolution, are carried out, as an effort for understanding the shear strength breakpoint, which is recognized in laboratory experiments, probably caused by the transition in hydrate morphology in sediment pores. The results obtained reveal that: (1) the way of hydrate in strengthening GHBS is to enhance cohesion; (2) the increasing rate of the strength difference between the sediment matrix with and without hydrate remarkably increases when the hydrate saturation is over certain value at which the shear strength breakpoint is observed, and this rate decreases with the increase in median particle diameter (D50) of host sediments; (3) the transition in hydrate morphology in sediment pores is recognized when the hydrate saturation increases at microscale; and (4) the shear strength breakpoint in the curve of strength difference versus hydrate saturation is explained based on the micromechanical properties of GHBS, including shear bandwidth, average coordination number, average normal force, and crack number evolution.

A Novel Upscaling Method for Evaluating Mechanical Properties of the Shale Oil Reservoir Based on Cluster Analysis and Nanoindentation

Abstract Shale formations as major unconventional energy resources are crucial in satisfying the global energy needs of the future. Via nanoindentation method and upscale method, the macromechanical parameters of shale, such as hardness, elastic modulus, are obtained. The conventional Mori–Tanaka upscale method only divides the data into three mineral classes and fails to fully incorporate micromechanical properties to reflect the macroscale properties of samples. The research measures micromechanical parameters of shale via nanoindentation and performs cluster analysis of nanoindentation measurements. The results of cluster analysis are then combined with the Mori–Tanaka upscale model to evaluate the macroscale mechanical property of shale. The elastic modulus, hardness, and fracture toughness are divided into five groups (clusters) via cluster analysis, with each representing a certain mineral composition. This research is of great significance for more reasonably and accurately characterizing shale mechanical properties, optimizing the recovery scheme, and improving the recovery efficiency of shale gas.

Water and sludge resource planning for sustainable agriculture: An energy-water-food-waste nexus approach

The population rise and expected increase in global food demand will stress natural freshwater resources. It will also result in increased emissions if proper resource planning is not implemented and unconventional water and energy resources are not exploited. There is a need to assess the potential of these unconventional resources, such as wastewater and sludge in alleviating carbon emissions and water stress. This study aims to do so by assessing the use of treated wastewater and sludge for food production and optimizing their planning using a multi-objective optimization model embedded within an energy-water-food-waste nexus approach applied to a case study on the agricultural sector in the state of Qatar. It is demonstrated that the use of treated sewage effluent as a water resource can supply the fodder farms in Qatar with all their nitrogen fertilization requirements almost throughout the year. Furthermore, the use of both treated sewage effluent and sludge as a source of energy has the potential to reduce the carbon footprint and water stress level by 62 % and 57 %, respectively. It is thus recommended to include treated sewage effluent in the agricultural water budget and to suspend outdoor farming not only during the summer but also in the hot month of March, as the latter can result in an additional 7 % and 30 % reduction of carbon footprint compared to the base-scenario when the water stress level is set to 0 % and 75 %, respectively.

Structural response of a compliant pipe-in-pipe under frictionless and frictional conditions of the seabed

Pipe-in-Pipe (PIP) technology has been studied significantly owing to its superior performance in deep-water and high-pressure high temperature fields than conventional single pipe. The PIP system has excellent track record of mitigating flow assurance problems from subsea wells through maintenance of the fluid's temperature in the pipe. It has also been applied in marine environment where conventional single pipe cannot perform. However, owing to complex interaction and contact within the PIP system and seabed, the mechanism of load transfer and the stresses that developed due to pressure, temperature and combined loading has not been fully understood and quantified. Therefore, this study examined the effect of pressure, temperature and the combined loading on PIP systems for flat seabed subsea pipeline. Simulations are performed to examined frictional and frictionless conditions of the flat seabed on PIP system and individual results of inner pipe, insulation material and outer pipe are presented for each analysis. The analytical calculations are carried-out for determining the operating stresses in each component of the PIP system in view of its significance for the overall structural behaviour of the system and validation of the numerical model. The impact response of the inner pipe, insulation and the outer pipe based on pressure, temperature and the combination of both (pressure and temperature) and the resulting stress on each component of the PIP system are investigated and the result presented. Furthermore, results of axial, radial and hoop stresses for the individual loading condition and with coupled analysis corresponding to each simulation (Frictional and Frictionless seabed conditions) are found to be closely similar with percentage difference less than 5 except for the von Mises stress which give 5.3%. This interesting finding revealed that the friction force does not affect structural integrity of the PIP system compared to conventional - single pipeline assuming all other parameters remains constant. Moreover, the presence of the outer pipe and the insulation material enhanced the performance of the inner pipe. The numerical simulation predicts closely the impact response for pipe-in-pipe composite specimens under individual and combined loading conditions. Therefore, the results obtained will serve as a reference guide for designing, construction and operating PIP system in the future to develop unconventional challenging energy resources like High Pressure High Temperature fields.

Ecological Restoration and Transformation of Maoming Oil Shale Mining Area: Experience and Inspirations

Oil shale is a kind of unconventional energy resource with abundant reserves, but its exploitation has a continuous negative impact on the environment, which has hindered the research and exploitation of oil shale under the international environmental consensus on issues such as climate change. Therefore, more attention should be paid to environmental problems as the side effect of oil shale exploitation. With the combination of field research, literature collection, and tracking survey, the oil shale open-pit exploitation and management process in Maoming, Guangdong, China, has been investigated, and its development and transformation model has been subsequently refined and summarized. The research results show that Maoming oil shale open-pit mine area has gone through four main stages: pre-exploitation stage, large-scale utilization stage, restoration stage, and green development stage. Through the management of mine pit treatment, vegetation restoration, ecological park construction, and tourism resource development, the abandoned open-pit mine has been transformed into an ecological park combining ecosystem, tourism, and cultural resources. In this process, this area has achieved the transformation from rough resource extraction to environment-friendly sustainable growth in its development mode. As a successful case of open-pit mine management in the world, the ecological restoration experience in Maoming can function as a reference for the smooth development and transformation of other oil shale mines in developing countries.

Potential of CBM as an Energy Vector in Active Mines and Abandoned Mines in Russia and Europe

The energy sector is in the spotlight today for its contribution to global warming and its dependence on global geopolitics. Even though many countries have reduced their use of coal, the COVID-19 crisis, the drop in temperatures in Central Asia, and the war between Russia and Ukraine have shown that coal continues to play an important role in this sector today. As long as we continue to depend energetically on coal, it is necessary to create the basis for the successful extraction and industrial use of coal mine methane (CMM), for example, as an unconventional energy resource. Early degassing technology is a technique that allows for the extraction of the methane contained within the coal seams. The application of this technology would reduce emissions, improve mine safety, and even increase their profitability. However, this technology has been understudied and is still not implemented on a large scale today. Moreover, mines with this technology generally burn the extracted methane in flares, losing a potential unconventional fuel. This study, therefore, presents different scenarios of the use of coalbed methane (CBM), with the aim of generating an impact on pollutant emissions from coal mines. To this end, a model has been designed to evaluate the economic efficiency of degasification. In addition, an emissions analysis was carried out. The results showed that the use of this technology has a negative impact on the economy of mines, which can be completely reversed with the use of CBM as fuel. Furthermore, it is observed that degasification, in addition to reducing the number of accidents in coal mining, reduces emissions by 30–40%.

Hierarchical Surrogate-Assisted Evolutionary Algorithm for Integrated Multi-Objective Optimization of Well Placement and Hydraulic Fracture Parameters in Unconventional Shale Gas Reservoir

Integrated optimization of well placement and hydraulic fracture parameters in naturally fractured shale gas reservoirs is of significance to enhance unconventional hydrocarbon energy resources in the oil and gas industry. However, the optimization task usually presents intensive computation-cost due to numerous high-fidelity model simulations, particularly for field-scale application. We present an efficient multi-objective optimization framework supported by a novel hierarchical surrogate-assisted evolutionary algorithm and multi-fidelity modeling technology. In the proposed framework, both the net present value (NPV) and cumulative gas production (CGP) are regarded as the bi-objective functions that need to be optimized. The hierarchical surrogate-assisted evolutionary algorithm employs a novel multi-fidelity particle-swarm optimization of a global–local hybridization searching strategy where the low-fidelity surrogate model is capable of exploring the populations globally, while the high-fidelity models update the current populations and thus generate the next generations locally. The multi-layer perception is chosen as a surrogate model in this study. The performance of our proposed hierarchical surrogate-assisted global optimization approach is verified to optimize the well placement and hydraulic fracture parameters on a hydraulically fractured shale gas reservoir. The proposed surrogate model can obtain both the NPV and CPG with satisfactory accuracy with only 500 training samples. The surrogate model significantly contributes to the convergent performance of multi-objective optimization algorithm.

Subsurface heat and salts cause exceptionally limited methane hydrate stability in the Mediterranean Basin

Abstract Knowledge of the global reservoir of submarine gas hydrates is of great relevance for understanding global climate dynamics, submarine geohazards, and unconventional hydrocarbon energy resources. Despite the expected presence of gas hydrates from modeling studies, the land-locked Mediterranean Basin displays a lack of evidence of extensive gas hydrate presence from samples and seismic data. We modeled the theoretical Mediterranean distribution of methane hydrate below the seafloor and in the water column using available geological information provided by 44 Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) and Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) boreholes, measured geothermal gradients, and thermohaline characteristics of the water masses. We find that the pervasive presence of high-salinity waters in sediments, coupled with the unique warm and salty water column, limit the thickness of the theoretical methane hydrate stability zone in the subsurface and deepen its top surface to 1163–1391 m water depth. The theoretical distribution of methane hydrates coincides well with the distribution of shallow, low-permeability Messinian salt deposits, further limiting the formation of pervasive gas hydrate fronts and controlling their or distribution due to the prevention of upward hydrocarbon gas migration. We conclude that the Mediterranean Basin, hosting the youngest salt giant on Earth, is not prone to the widespread formation and preservation of gas hydrates in the subsurface and that the gas hydrate potential of salt-bearing rifted continental margins may be considerably decreased by the presence of subsurface brines.

Prospect Analysis of Paleocene Coalbed Methane: A Case Study of Hangu Formation, Trans-Indus Ranges, Pakistan

The methane trapped in the coal seams has emerged as an unconventional clean energy resource worldwide in this century. The proximate composition, ultimate content, cleat structure, porosity type, and pore structures are the debatable components for its trapping mechanism. Further, the brittle and ductile properties of minerals influence in the extraction of the methane from the coal seams. In this research, Coalbed methane prospect is demonstrated by analysing the Hangu Formation’s coal seam of Trans-Indus Ranges, Pakistan. This case study is helpful to find the occurrence, trapping ability, and methane extraction capacity in its cleat structures and pores. A number of samples were tested from the different coal mines in terms of these debatable components. The results indicate that the rank of studied coal is bituminous to subbituminous in which the carbon ratio, volatile matter, and sulfur contents are increasing with depth towards the south. The transitional connected face and butt cleats are partially filled with minerals and the intergranular, dissolved, and tissue pore types are also identified in it. It can be helpful for the occurrence, migration, and trapping of methane. Furthermore, the higher surface areas and cumulative pore volumes enhance the capacity of gas adsorption with depth in the study area. Moreover, the increasing brittle minerals in the coal composition towards the south can be helpful for the fracking of coal seams for economical gas extraction. It is suggested that this workflow can be implemented in any region with same coal rank and cleat types.

AVA Analysis of BSR in Fractured filled Gas-hydrates Reservoir in Krishna-Godavari Basin, India

Abstract Gas-hydrates, a major unconventional energy resources of the future, are delineated by seismic experiment through the identification of an anomalous reflector, known as the bottom simulating reflector or BSR on seismic data. The amplitude variation with angle (AVA) from the BSR can be used for quantitative assessment of gas-hydrates and free-gas across the BSR. We have performed the AVA analysis of BSR in the Krishna Godavari (KG) basin of India, where gas-hydrates have been recovered in fractured shale by Exp-01 of Indian National Gas Hydrates Program. The study shows negative intercept and positive gradient along two perpendicular seismic lines, one passing through the well at site-10 of Exp-01. The intercept of -0.01 to -0.15 and gradient of 0.01 to 0.4 are interpreted as class-IV anomaly, which is due to anisotropy caused by fractures filled with gas-hydrates. We have modelled the observed AVA pattern using anisotropic equation for horizontally symmetric transversally isotropic (HTI) media in which gas-hydrates occur in the fractures, roughly aligned at angle of 45° above the BSR and patchy gas distribution below the BSR. The results show 0-31% variable gas-hydrates in fractured morphology and 0-11% free gas below the BSR respectively.

Effect of Nanoparticle Adsorption on the Pore Structure of a Coalbed Methane Reservoir: A Laboratory Experimental Study.

Coalbed methane (CBM) is an important unconventional energy resource, and its micropore structure has a vital impact on its exploitation. Based on the nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) experiment, the low-temperature liquid nitrogen adsorption experiment, and the contact angle experiment, in this paper, we investigated the influence of nanofluids on the micropore structure of a CBM reservoir from many aspects. The influence of different adsorption mechanisms of TiO2 nanoparticles on the surface wettability of rock samples was analyzed. The influence of nanoparticle adsorption on the drainage and distribution of liquid in the rock sample was discussed in depth. In addition, the effects of nanofluid treatment on the micropore structure were investigated by comparing the data of low-temperature liquid nitrogen adsorption experiments, including the pore diameter, pore volume, and specific surface area (SSA). The experimental results show that the treatment of nanofluids helps to open the micropores and greatly increases the SSA, pore diameter, and pore volume of the sample. The maximum increase percentages of SSA, pore volume, and pore diameter are 228.12, 80.65, and 18.89%, respectively. It is found that the adsorption of particles is conducive to enhancing the water wettability of the pore throat surface and reducing the damage to water locks.

Geological and Engineering Integrated Shale Gas Sweet Spots Evaluation Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method: A Case Study of Z Shale Gas Field HB Block

As an emerging unconventional energy resource, shale gas has great resource potential and developmental prospects. The effective evaluation of geological sweet spots (GSS), engineering sweet spots (ESS) and comprehensive sweet spots (CSS) is one of the main factors for a high-yield scale and economic production of shale gas. Sweet spot evaluation involves a comprehensive analysis based on multiple parameters. Conventional evaluation methods consider relatively simple or single factors. Although the main influencing factors are understood, the influence of different factors is as of yet unknown, and a comprehensive consideration may strongly affect the evaluation results. In this paper, the fuzzy mathematics method is introduced for shale gas sweet spot evaluation. With the help of fuzzy mathematics tools, such as membership function, the objective of comprehensive sweet spots evaluation based on multiple parameters is realized. Additionally, the reliability of the evaluation of sweet spots is improved. Firstly, previous research results are used for reference, and the evaluation factor system of geological and engineering sweet spots of shale gas is systematically analyzed and established. Then, the basic principle of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is briefly introduced, and a geological engineering integrated shale gas sweet spots evaluation method, based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, is designed and implemented. Finally, the data from HB blocks in the Z shale gas field in China are adopted. According to the evaluation results, the modified method is tested. The results show that the method proposed in this paper can synthesize a number of evaluation indices, quickly and effectively evaluate the GSS, ESS and CSS in the target area, and the results have high rationality and accuracy, which can effectively assist in well-pattern deployment and fracture design.

Unconventional energy resources: a system dynamics evaluation of social, environment and economic aspects

This study substantiates the usefulness of a systemic approach to investigate the multi-dimensional challenges regarding environmental, economic, and social impacts facing the sustainable development of unconventional energy resources, particularly oil sands (OS) in Canada. This research uses the system dynamics (SD) methodology to examine the impact of shocks in oil demand using real and theoretical scenarios. This was done by identifying leading indicators critical to OS resource development to capture sustainable development effects. The study identifies the contribution of OS resources in Canada to global sustainable development and has developed a model structure that captures the critical parameters associated with the economic-dynamics, socio-dynamics, and enviro-dynamics for the next 30 years. It also includes the impact of sudden oil supply and demand shocks and presents various recovery scenarios. The results from these scenarios indicate that it may take up to 25 years for the industry to return to its pre-shock trajectory, even assuming a rapid recovery. As such, the study proposes an adaptive model to assist sustainable energy development policies and decision-making. Accordingly, the approach can be helpful for academicians, policymakers, and practitioners for objective decision-making regarding sustainable development. Meanwhile, it provides cogent and valuable information for natural resource governance.