Unconventional energy resources: a system dynamics evaluation of social, environment and economic aspects

Abstract

This study substantiates the usefulness of a systemic approach to investigate the multi-dimensional challenges regarding environmental, economic, and social impacts facing the sustainable development of unconventional energy resources, particularly oil sands (OS) in Canada. This research uses the system dynamics (SD) methodology to examine the impact of shocks in oil demand using real and theoretical scenarios. This was done by identifying leading indicators critical to OS resource development to capture sustainable development effects. The study identifies the contribution of OS resources in Canada to global sustainable development and has developed a model structure that captures the critical parameters associated with the economic-dynamics, socio-dynamics, and enviro-dynamics for the next 30 years. It also includes the impact of sudden oil supply and demand shocks and presents various recovery scenarios. The results from these scenarios indicate that it may take up to 25 years for the industry to return to its pre-shock trajectory, even assuming a rapid recovery. As such, the study proposes an adaptive model to assist sustainable energy development policies and decision-making. Accordingly, the approach can be helpful for academicians, policymakers, and practitioners for objective decision-making regarding sustainable development. Meanwhile, it provides cogent and valuable information for natural resource governance.