Technological Uncertainty Research Articles

Unlocking new export opportunities: An open-source framework for assessing green iron and steel supply chains

Globally traded commodities such as iron and steel are coming under international scrutiny owing to their significant embedded greenhouse emissions. Commodity export-oriented nations must explore opportunities for decarbonising these supply chains or risk losing market share as customers seek cleaner alternatives and as initiatives such as carbon border adjustment mechanisms (CBAM) come into effect. Here we present an open-source model developed to assist industry and other stakeholders in assessing the costs of potential CO2 abatement pathways in supplying green iron ore, green iron, or green steel to key global markets. Using a case study, we assess the development of a green steel supply chain from major iron ore producers of Australia, Brazil, and Sweden, to key markets in Europe, China, and India. Projected costs of renewable energy and other key technologies are used to estimate possible future costs of different decarbonisation pathways. Our modelling suggests that by 2050, export costs of green iron ore, iron and steel could range from 48 to 150, 370–600 and 540–810 USD/tonne respectively. Access to low-cost renewable energy is the key driver of cost reductions for value added products such as iron and steel, and given their substantial renewable energy potential, in 2050 Australia and Brazil could outcompete Sweden in providing these products, with both even outcompeting Sweden in exporting to the European market. The release of our model as open source allows any and all stakeholders to explore the implications of key technology and market uncertainties over least cost green iron and steel supply chains.

Travel Agency Companies Under Environmental Uncertainty: Multiple Strategic Orientation and Performance

The global pandemic has significantly impacted the economy, tourism industry, and its supporting industries. Many market areas of the tourism industry, including hotels, restaurants, and travel agents, have reached a point of saturation. To better understand how environmental uncertainty affects travel agency performance, this research will investigate the organizational strategic orientation's mediating impact. A questionnaire is used to gather the data, which is subsequently subjected to PLS-SEM analysis. The population consisted of travel agent’s manager across Indonesia, from which 75 were selected using purposive sampling. According to the findings, technology uncertainty affects the strategic orientation that organizations choose, and this includes entrepreneurial and market orientations, which might affect the learning orientation and organizational performance of travel agency organizations

Digital Transformation and Green Investment: The Mediating Role of Green Technological Innovation and Environmental Uncertainty

Digital Transformation and Green Investment: The Mediating Role of Green Technological Innovation and Environmental Uncertainty

The Impact of Business Uncertainty on the Performance of Small Enterprises During the Economic Crises in Sri Lanka

Small enterprises often regarded as the backbone of economies, are currently confronted with unprecedented challenges due to the uncertain conditions arising from the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic crisis in Sri Lanka. Therefore, the study attempts to assess the impact of uncertainty in the business environment on the business performance of small enterprises in Sri Lanka during the economic crisis. The study is a deductive and explanatory approach in quantitative design. The primary data was collected for a structured questionnaire from 185 owners of small enterprises in Kalutare district, Sri Lanka. The data was analyzed by using Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modelling. The results revealed that demand uncertainty, supply uncertainty, price uncertainty, policy uncertainty, and behavioral uncertainty have negatively affected business performance while technological uncertainty does not have a significant impact on business performance. Thus, the study empirically exposed that the business performance of small enterprises is severely blocked by business uncertainty during the economic crisis. Therefore, small enterprises should plan business activities to make rational business decisions based on reliable information to achieve better business performance by avoiding uncertainty during the economic crisis.

Determinants of the price premium for eco vessels

Shipping companies face the trilemma of investing in cheaper but more polluting conventional vessels, in more expensive but eco-friendly ones or postponing their investment. We quantify the price premium paid for eco-friendly vessels and investigate its determinants. The results indicate that eco vessels trade at an average premium of 25% compared to their conventional counterparts, while the corresponding income premia are between 9% and 15%. Our findings further suggest that the price premium depends on the market conditions, with income premia, past price premia, and fleet supply being strong drivers, while fuel costs and market liquidity have a less important effect. The magnitude and significance of these drivers vary based on the market state and segment. Overall, the paper documents the adverse effect that the current technological and regulatory uncertainty has on vessel investment and highlights the need for further policy intervention to reduce market uncertainty and encourage green investment.

Factors Influencing the Success Criteria of ICT Project Management Case Study Constructions in Mogadishu

Being a developing nation, our nation's project construction is advanced in comparison to earlier years. Therefore, the overall goal of this study is to evaluate and examine the local elements influencing the success criteria of ICT project management in the construction sectors. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the technical factors that affect the success of ICT project management in the Somali construction industry. To determine the organizational factors that affect the ICT project management success in the Somali construction industry. And to investigate the cultural factors that affect the success of ICT project management in the construction industry. The most recent study to look at environmental factors influencing the performance of ICT project management in the Somali construction industry. The report focuses on construction initiatives completed in Somalia's capital city of Mogadishu. Both interviews and questionnaires were used to gather the data. The questionnaire was completed online using Google Form, and the respondents were clients, consultants, and contractors. The researchers used practical sampling to gather 100 surveys. There are four case study companies that I have chosen as an experiment construction companies are utilized as a case study for this research project. The data from the questionnaires were analyzed using SPSS to produce the average index from the study; Dalbile construction and contracting company, Bile home repair and Construction service, Qidmad Construction Company and Gaabow Construction Company. Due to the growing technological uncertainty, the building sector is dynamic. Building projects are getting easier and more advanced today. The coordination between the project participants is what has an impact on how well construction projects execute when using the design build method of procurement. The Somali government should establish and enforce strict penalties to combat fraudulence activities, the licensing of contractors and consultants should be thoroughly scrutinized to ensure that they are qualified and have the tools necessary to perform their jobs, and the contractors should enhance their estimation methods and take into account all external factors that could affect their projects.

Learning Scale in Virtual Reality: Experiences and Perception of Immersive Technology at a Public Middle School

Students have misconceptions of size and scale cognition as they confuse molecules and cells. The team deployed a virtual reality (VR) learning tool, namely Scale Worlds, for K-12 students to use at school. The present work aimed to examine the experience and perception of immersive technology, and logistical challenges of integrating Scale Worlds into a science class. Ten students and three teachers were included in this study with informed consent. Scale Worlds was introduced as part of a science class and then semi-structured interview was conducted. Students’ experience with VR technology included physiological discomfort, psychological nervousness and uncertainty of technology, personal abilities and unfamiliarity, and hardware latency. However, students perceived Scale Worlds to be a useful tool that helped them visualize entities of different sizes, and allowed them to work collaboratively. Teachers expressed desire for more exciting content in Scale Worlds and further usability enhancement, as well as need for additional material preparation time. The team planned to return to the same middle school for another round of in-field study after addressing some of the reported challenges.

Demonstrating clean energy transition scenarios in sector-coupled and renewable-based energy communities.

Energy communities facilitate several advantages, including energy autonomy, reduced greenhouse gas emissions, poverty mitigation, and regional economic development. They also empower citizens with decision-making and co-ownership prospects in community renewable projects. Integrating renewable energy sources and sector coupling is a crucial strategy for flexible energy systems. However, demonstrating clean energy transition scenarios in these communities presents challenges, including technology integration, flexibility activation, load reduction, grid resilience, and business case development. Based on the system of systems approach, this paper introduces a 4-step funnel approach and a 4-step reverse funnel approach to systematically specify and detail demonstration scenarios for energy community projects. The funnel approach involves four steps. First, it selects demonstration scenarios promoting energy-efficient state-of-the-art renewable technologies and storage systems, flexibility through demand side management techniques, reduced grid dependence, and economic viability. Second, it lists all existing and planned project technologies, analysing energy flows. Third, it plans actions at different levels to implement the demonstration scenarios. Fourth, it validates the strategies using key performance indicators (KPI) to quantify the effectiveness of the planned measures. Furthermore, the reverse funnel approach delves deeper into the demonstration scenarios. The four steps involve identifying stakeholder perspectives, describing scenario scopes, listing conditions for realisation, and outlining business models, including value chains and economic assumptions. This approach provides a detailed analysis of the demonstration scenarios, considering actors, objectives, boundary conditions, and business assumptions. The methodologies are exemplified in three diverse European energy communities extending across residential, commercial, tertiary, and industrial establishments, allowing power-to-x and sector coupling opportunities. The paper also suggested thirteen KPIs for validating renewable-focused energy community projects. Finally, the paper recommends increased collaboration between energy communities, knowledge sharing, stakeholder engagement, transparent data collection and analysis, continuous feedback, and method improvement to mitigate policy, technology, business, and market uncertainties.

Research on the development of BYD based on SWOT and Financial analysis

With the continuous maturity of new energy utilization technology in the future, BYD, as a leader in the new energy industry, will usher in a greater development opportunity. Through SWOT analysis of BYD's financial indicators in recent years, we can draw the following conclusions: BYD has a stable financial situation, outstanding technological innovation ability, strong cost control ability, and obvious advantages; However, the market competition is fierce, and brand influence needs to be improved. At the same time, it faces threats such as rapid technological updates and uncertainties in the international trade environment. Therefore, BYD should fully utilize opportunities such as policy support and market demand growth, strengthen brand building and technological research and development, improve market competitiveness, and respond to potential risks and challenges. In summary, by using the SWOT analysis method to conduct in-depth analysis of BYD's financial indicators in recent years, we can not only understand the company's operating status and competitive advantages, but also discover the challenges and potential risks it faces. This will help investors and decision-makers make more scientific and reasonable strategic decisions, providing strong support for the future development of the company.

How does the technology environment impact supply chain strategy and operational performance?

PurposeThis paper investigates the relationship between technological uncertainty and the use of Industry 4.0 (I4.0) technologies, and its impact on the implementation of agile and lean supply chain strategies. It also examines the effect of both of these supply chain strategies on focal firm operational performance in terms of efficiency in manufacturing processes and delivery performance.Design/methodology/approachSurvey data were gathered from 256 focal manufacturing companies in Spain using a structured questionnaire. Covariance-based structural equation modeling (CB-SEM) is used to test the conceptual model.FindingsUnderpinned by the Contingency Theory and the Resource Orchestration Theory, the results indicate that technology uncertainty has a strong association with I4.0 technology use. Furthermore, the use of I4.0 technologies facilitates the implementation of the lean supply chain strategy and the agile supply chain strategy. Focal firm operational performance was also observed to be affected by the two strategies in different ways.Originality/valueThis study extends the literature on operations management by studying the fit between the external environment and strategy by incorporating an in-between element: the use of I4.0 technologies. This research provides a unique empirical analysis of the role of technology uncertainty and integration between I4.0 technologies and supply chain strategies.

Kindred spirits: Cognitive frame similarity and good faith provisions in strategic alliance contracts

AbstractResearch SummaryAn intriguing yet underexamined phenomenon in strategic alliance contracts is the use of good faith provisions. These provisions appeal to parties' integrity and fair dealing but are often ambiguous, and their enforcement in court is unpredictable. Adopting a sociocognitive perspective, we predict a positive relationship between the similarity of partners' organizational‐level cognitive frames and the number of good faith provisions in alliance contracts. We further posit that technological uncertainty strengthens this relationship, whereas each alliance partner's cumulative contracting experience weakens it. We also expect a more positive relationship in instances of “genuine” good faith, which serves as a substitute for an explicit clause, compared with “guarded” good faith, which supplements an explicit clause. Our analysis of 1225 strategic alliance contracts from the biopharmaceutical industry supports our arguments.Managerial SummaryManagers negotiating strategic alliances often face a dilemma: they negotiate detailed contracts to reduce legal risk but limit flexibility or opt for less codification, saving time and retaining flexibility but increasing legal risk. Good faith provisions offer a potential solution because they are flexible yet legally enforceable, but they require a shared interpretation of the relevant contingency, raising questions about when managers find this approach reasonable. We analyzed 1225 biopharmaceutical alliance contracts and found that such provisions are more common when alliance partners have similar cognitive frames, as evidenced by similar “About Us” web pages. This effect is stronger under conditions of greater technological uncertainty but weakens with more alliance experience. Our study elucidates the use of good faith provisions to aid managers in navigating alliance negotiations efficiently.

Bus fleet decarbonization under macroeconomic and technological uncertainties: A real options approach to support decision-making

Fleet owners deal with various and critical uncertainties while planning bus fleet replacement, encompassing macroeconomic and technological factors, such as fuel and electricity prices, energy consumption, purchasing costs of electric batteries and powertrains, and bus salvage value upon resale. This paper proposes a Real Option-based framework to evaluate investment choices in different bus technologies over time (diesel, hybrid electric, compressed natural gas, and full-electric), where the proposed options usually involve replacing existing diesel fleets with alternatively powered buses. In particular, we provide a multi-option least squares Monte Carlo simulation to help fleet owners in making cost-effective investment decisions, resulting in potential cost savings of up to 10% of the annual total cost of ownership. By applying the proposed approach to different bus route types (inner-city, urban, suburban, commuter), the results show how the optimal investment choices for fleet replacement change over time. Initially, diesel buses or, at most, compressed natural gas buses are more cost-effective compared to electric technology. However, as electric technology becomes increasingly competitive, internal combustion buses are phased out. Inner-city and urban routes are better suited for the electric transition, whereas the transition may progress more slowly on other route types.Finally, we show that, under technological and macroeconomic uncertainties, the duration of contracts can strongly affect the investment decisions, in absence of specific guarantees on the new fleet.

EXPRESS: Zooming in on the Very Early Days: The Role of Trademark Applications in the Acquisition of Venture Capital Seed Funding

New ventures are essential for developing innovations and generating economic and societal value, but they depend on external resources, especially from venture capitalists, who provide seed funding to make necessary advances in the development and commercialization of their innovative products. From the marketing discipline’s perspective, the question is whether marketing actions play a role in this early acquisition of critical resources. Building on organizational legitimacy theory, we argue that trademark applications are important from day one, as they send important information cues to venture capitalists (e.g., on marketing-related professionalism) that foster the acquisition of venture capital (VC) seed funding. We build a dataset using Crunchbase and USPTO data that follows 5,370 ventures founded between 2007 and 2010 over several years up to 2018. We find that new ventures that file trademark applications have an increased likelihood of acquiring VC seed funding compared to firms that do not file trademark applications. This association is strongest during the first 100 days and diminishes about 1,000 days after foundation. The effect is particularly pronounced in industries characterized by low technological uncertainty and when new ventures do not operate from a location with a cluster of startups, such as Silicon Valley.

Exploring the Relationship between Surface Acting, Job Stress, and Emotional Exhaustion in Health Professionals: The Moderating Role of LMX.

Rapid organizational changes due to technological advancements, high-efficiency expectations, and uncertainties, particularly in healthcare, have led to a global stress epidemic among em-ployees. This has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and evolving workplace practices. Surface acting, or the suppression and faking of emotions, significantly contributes to this stress and burnout, impacting not only individual healthcare professionals but also healthcare systems' overall effectiveness and sustainability. Providing adequate resources in high-demand work environments is, thus, essential to mitigate these negative experiences. Leader-member exchange (LMX) can play a pivotal role in understanding and addressing the needs and expectations of healthcare professionals. Drawing on Conservation of Resources (COR), Job Demands-Resources (JD-R), Social Exchange theories, and Grandey's Emotional Regulation Model, this study analyzed data from a convenience sample of 350 healthcare professionals. The results reveal that surface acting intensifies healthcare professionals' experiences of job stress and emotional exhaustion. Notably, the study empirically demonstrated that high levels of LMX in healthcare professionals' relationships with their leaders can mitigate the impact of surface acting on job stress and emotional exhaustion. These findings offer valuable insights for managers and policymakers, highlighting the importance of LMX in maintaining sustainable management practices in complex and stressful healthcare organizations.

Opportunities and Challenges of Sustainable Innovation for Climate Change Mitigation in Companies: A Systematic Literature Review

ABSTRACTThe escalating environmental degradation and tightening regulations worldwide since the 1990s have heightened environmental concerns among organizations, necessitating innovative and sustainable responses to climate change. This article aims to explore opportunities and challenges of sustainable innovations for mitigating climate change within companies. A systematic literature review was conducted, encompassing 42 articles from 2005 to 2022. Most studies originate from European countries, particularly from institutions like Sapienza University of Rome, Jinan University, and Amsterdam Business School. Notable authors include Rosa Maria Dangelico, Ans Kolk, and Jonatan Pinkse. The most cited journals include Business Strategy and the Environment, Journal of Cleaner Production, and Sustainability (MDPI). Identified opportunities for companies embracing climate change mitigation through innovation include enhanced image and competitiveness. Challenges comprise high implementation costs, ambiguous sustainable development guidelines, partnership scarcity, technological risk uncertainties, consumer acceptance concerns, deficient tools for low‐carbon product development, and the sociotechnical system's influence. Moreover, companies face hurdles like reliance on supply chain complementary capabilities and regulatory uncertainties. Future research should prioritize less costly sustainability practices and examine the sociotechnical factor's impact on sustainable innovation adoption. Prohibitive investment costs hinder companies from embracing these practices, highlighting the need for cost‐effective alternatives. Understanding the sociotechnical dynamic's role in driving or obstructing sustainable innovation adoption is crucial for comprehensive analysis and effective strategy development.

Estimation and Applications of Uncertainty in Methane Emissions Quantification Technologies: A Bayesian Approach.

An accurate understanding of uncertainty is needed to properly interpret methane emission estimates from upstream oil and gas sources in a variety of contexts, from component-level measurements to yearly jurisdiction-wide inventories. To characterize measurement uncertainty, we examine controlled release (CR) data from five different technology providers including quantitative gas imaging (QOGI), tunable diode laser-absorption spectroscopy (TDLAS); and airborne near-infrared hyperspectral (NIR HS) imaging. We introduce a novel empirical method to develop probability distributions of measurements given a true emission rate using the CR data. The approach includes flexible likelihoods which capture complex relationships in the data. An algorithm which provides the distribution of the true emission rate given a measurement is also developed, which synthesizes the measurement with the CR data and external information about the possible true emission rate. The results show that flexible models that accommodate complex nonlinear behavior are needed to adequately model measurement error. We also show that measurement error can vary under different conditions. We demonstrate that measurement uncertainty can be reduced by performing repeated measurements. A limitation of the study is that the collected CR data is collected under controlled conditions that may differ from those in industrial settings. As new CR data become available, the models presented in this paper can be refit to consider more diverse scenarios. The methodology can be extended to explicitly model different conditions to improve performance.

Moving Toward Economic and Digital Sustainability in Marketing Analytics

Despite analytical advancements, firms have yet to realize the full potential of big data marketing analytics (BDMA) because the poor quality data restricts customer predictions and insightful decisions. Technology and market uncertainty create challenges in understanding business needs, choosing analytical tools, determining customer insights, and market trends. This study aims to assess the quality of marketing analytics, including technology and information quality. Data were collected from 236 North American respondents working in firms with at least limited experience in the deployment of BDMA. The analysis tool was PLS-SEM. The findings supported the hypothesis that technology and market uncertainty negatively influence the quality of analytical outcomes. This study makes a significant theoretical and methodological contribution to BDMA literature by assessing the quality of analytics as an integrated formative construct.

Investment Timing and Technological Breakthroughs

We study the optimal investment policy of a firm facing both technological and cash-flow uncertainty. At any point in time, the firm can irreversibly invest in a stand-alone technology or wait for a technological breakthrough. Breakthroughs occur when market conditions become favorable enough, exceeding a threshold value that is ex ante unknown to the firm. The Markov state variables for the optimal investment policy are the current market conditions and their historic maximum, and the firm optimally invests in the stand-alone technology only when market conditions deteriorate enough after reaching a maximum. The path-dependent return required for investing in the stand-alone technology is always higher than if no technological breakthroughs could occur and can take arbitrarily large values following certain histories. Decreases in development costs or increases in the value of the new technology make the firm more prone to bearing downside risk and delaying investment in the stand-alone technology. Funding: This research has benefited from financial support of the ANR [Programmes d’Investissements d’Avenir CHESS ANR-17-EURE-0010 and ANITI ANR-19-PI3A-0004] and the research foundation TSE-Partnership [Chaire Marchés des Risques et Création de Valeur, Fondation du Risque/SCOR].

Teleworking and its relationship with workplace technostress post COVID-19

The overwhelming use of information and communications technologies (ICT) that is being implemented in organizations makes it necessary to analyze the effects of teleworking on employees. The objective of this review was to analyze the scientific literature published on the relationship between teleworking and work-related technostress in the post-COVID-19 context. The method used had a qualitative approach, carrying out a systematic review that respected the PRISMA guidelines. 20 empirical investigations found in Scopus and Google Scholar were analyzed, published between 2019 and 2023. The results categorically indicate that there is a close relationship between teleworking and work-related technostress. The factors are social isolation, complex software, conflict between work and the personal environment, the absence of interpersonal relationships, and technological uncertainty. Therefore, it is suggested that organizations promote work autonomy and effective self-leadership, in addition to considering measures such as training in the use of digital platforms, the implementation of high-quality software that allows better interaction, and the organization of periodic face-to-face activities.

The impact of blockchain adoption in supply chain systems on corporate performance: a technology–organization–environment framework

The instability of the international political environment and frequent occurrence of unpredictable events have introduced greater uncertainty to the external environment of supply chains. Consequently, supply chain operations and development face increasing challenges. With a decentralized architecture, blockchain technology has emerged as an innovative solution capable of addressing various supply chain management issues. However, existing research on the adoption and impact of blockchain technology on corporate performance is limited, particularly within the technology–organization–environment (TOE) framework. Drawing from relevant studies, this study identifies traceability, information sharing, transparency and decentralization as the four perceived benefits of blockchain technology, and proposes a model to evaluate the impact of blockchain technology on corporate performance. Additionally, it examines the moderating effects of technological uncertainty, corporate social responsibility (CSR) orientation, and market uncertainty on the blockchain adoption within the TOE framework.