Outcome Uncertainty Research Articles

Long-Term Viewership Forecasting of American College Football Games

Using data collected from televised college football games between 2014 and 2019, we present a log-linear statistical model for viewership of National Collegiate Athletic Association college football games that controls for well-known factors, such as temporal fixed effects, strength of the games, rivalries, outcome uncertainty, and broadcast medium, among others. Novel factors influencing viewership that are not used in previous studies include the number of concurrent broadcasts, the strength of the game relative to other concurrently broadcast games, and their interactions. This model only includes team-specific factors available prior to the season, thereby providing valuable input if games were to be scheduled well in advance. We also propose a novel variable coding that allows a parsimonious estimation of the effect of all pairs of interconference games, not just intraconference games. The model is assessed through residual analysis and in- and out-of-sample predictive performance.

The impact of outcome uncertainty on corporate investment compensation peer effects

The impact of outcome uncertainty on corporate investment compensation peer effects

A Journey Through Philosophy and Medicine: From Aristotle to Evidence-Based Decisions

The evolution of medical reasoning is deeply intertwined with philosophical thought, beginning with Aristotle’s foundational work in deductive logic. Aristotle’s principles significantly influenced early medical practice, shaping the works of Galen and Avicenna, who made empirical observations that expanded clinical knowledge. During the Enlightenment, both inductive reasoning, as advocated by Francis Bacon, and deductive methods, as stressed by René Descartes, significantly advanced medical reasoning. These approaches proved insufficient when it came to handling uncertainty and variability in medical outcomes. Nineteenth-century figures like William Osler advanced a probabilistic understanding of medicine. Karl Popper’s 20th-century hypothetico-deductive method, which introduced the concept of falsifiability and transformed scientific inquiry into a rigorous process of hypothesis testing, is a fundamental aspect of evidence-based medicine (EBM). EBM emerged as the dominant paradigm, combining empirical research, clinical expertise, and statistical inference to guide medical decisions. Looking forward, Bayesian reasoning offers a further refinement in medical reasoning. By incorporating prior knowledge and continuously updating probabilities with new evidence, Bayesianism addresses the limitations of frequentist methods and offers a more dynamic and adaptable framework for clinical decision making. As medical reasoning evolves, understanding this philosophical lineage is essential to navigating the future of patient care, where evidence must be both rigorously tested and individually tailored.

Potential of business uncertainty indicators in forecasting economic activity: The case of Russia

This study investigates the utility of business uncertainty indicators as predictive tools for forecasting economic activity in the context of Russia. In an era characterized by global economic volatility and geopolitical shifts, understanding the dynamics of economic uncertainty and its impact on overall economic performance is of paramount importance. The study utilizes a comprehensive dataset based on the results of business tendency surveys in Russia, spanning the period from 2009 to the first half of 2024. Given the importance of uncertainty in shaping economic outcomes, the central research question of this study is: can uncertainty indicators predict business activity in Russia or not? To address this question, we compared two alternative approaches to calculating business uncertainty: the ex‑ante approach, which uses the business community’s assessments of future business trends to measure uncertainty as the dispersion of opinions expressed, and the ex‑post approach, which applies entrepreneurial assessments of both future and current trends to determine business uncertainty as the degree of deviation of entrepreneurial expectations from the real picture. National indicators and sectoral indicators were calculated for the mining and quarrying industry, manufacturing industry, construction, retail trade, wholesale trade and services. For most of the industries under consideration (except for the construction and service sector) and at the national level, the specifications of vector autoregression models that were effective for forecasting real indicators of economic activity, ­characterized by lower forecast ­errors compared to standard autoregressive models, were built. According to the results obtained, at the national level, when forecasting GDP, clear preference should be given to the ex‑post indicator.

Barriers to Cochlear Implant Uptake in Adults: A Scoping Review.

Cochlear implants (CIs) provide access to sound and help mitigate the negative effects of hearing loss. As a field, we are successfully implanting more adults with greater amounts of residual hearing than ever before. Despite this, utilization remains low, which is thought to arise from barriers that are both intrinsic and extrinsic. A considerable body of literature has been published in the last 5 years on barriers to adult CI uptake, and understanding these barriers is critical to improving access and utilization. This scoping review aims to summarize the existing literature and provide a guide to understanding barriers to adult CI uptake. Inclusion criteria were limited to peer-reviewed articles involving adults, written in English, and accessible with a university library subscription. A cutoff of 20 years was used to limit the search. Barriers uncovered in this review were categorized into an ecological framework. The initial search revealed 2,315 items after duplicates were removed. One hundred thirty-one articles were reviewed under full-text, and 68 articles met the inclusion criteria. Race, ethnicity, and reimbursement are policy and structural barriers. Public awareness and education are societal barriers. Referral and geographical challenges are forms of organizational barriers. Living context and professional support are interpersonal barriers. At the individual level, sound quality, uncertainty of outcome, surgery, loss of residual hearing, and irreversibility are all barriers to CI uptake. By organizing barriers into an ecological framework, targeted interventions can be used to overcome such barriers.

EE240 Evaluating the Impact of Matched-Adjusted Indirect Comparisons on Propagated Uncertainty in Economic Outcomes

EE240 Evaluating the Impact of Matched-Adjusted Indirect Comparisons on Propagated Uncertainty in Economic Outcomes

Risky hybrid foraging: The impact of risk, reward value, and prevalence on foraging behavior in hybrid visual search.

In hybrid foraging, foragers search for multiple targets in multiple patches throughout the foraging session, mimicking a range of real-world scenarios. This research examines outcome uncertainty, the prevalence of different target types, and the reward value of targets in human hybrid foraging. Our empirical findings show a consistent tendency toward risk-averse behavior in hybrid foraging. That is, people display a preference for certainty and actively avoid taking risks. While altering the prevalence or reward value of the risky targets does influence people's aversion to risk, the overall effect of risk remains dominant. Additionally, simulation results suggest that the observed risk-averse strategy is suboptimal in the sense that it prevents foragers from maximizing their overall returns. These results underscore the crucial role of outcome uncertainty in shaping hybrid foraging behavior and shed light on potential theoretical developments bridging theories in decision making and hybrid foraging. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Don’t put all your legs in one basket: Theory and evidence on coopetition in road cycling

We study competition between two groups of individuals with team affiliations, where each group solves a coopetition problem to outperform the other group. Our analysis suggests the presence of a strategic benefit of diversification that goes beyond merely reducing outcome uncertainty. We outline applications in industrial and workplace organization and provide a detailed model of road cycling races, which naturally feature this strategic setup. We find that asymmetric groups tend to cooperate better. Also, having team members in two competing groups is beneficial for a team, as it increases free-riding opportunities in both groups. By analyzing data from over 40 seasons of professional road cycling races, we find empirical evidence in favor of these results. In particular, having a teammate in a group behind positively impacts win probability.

How incentive alignment along the supply chain fosters incremental innovation: evidence from defence performance-based contracts

PurposeTo investigate how providers of product-service bundles design and manage their contracts with upstream suppliers to incentivise incremental innovation for the benefit of their downstream customers, who contract the provider based on performance.Design/methodology/approachAn embedded multiple-case study was conducted to examine elements of a European jet fighter’s manufacturing and after-sales supply chain. The embedded cases concern provider contracts with first-tier suppliers of product and service offerings. Data collection involved 21 semi-structured interviews, documents and other secondary data sources. Data analysis was informed by agency theory to assess the effectiveness of contract design and management in delivering incremental innovation and to identify related contracting strategies.FindingsWe identify four strategies for fostering incremental innovation in contracts between providers and their first-tier suppliers. These include two contract design strategies, i.e. reducing goal incongruence and addressing information asymmetry; and two contract management strategies, i.e. reducing outcome uncertainty and promoting inter-firm integration between providers and sub-suppliers.Practical implicationsThe research offers managerial guidelines regarding how providers can design and manage their tier-one supplier contracts to achieve incremental innovation. These include encouraging early supplier involvement, using focussed KPIs in contracts, and managing product and service-offering suppliers differently.Originality/valueThe research shows the contingent effect during contract design and management of a sub-supplier’s product vs. service offering, which, in turn, impacts incremental innovation. We also find that using focussed key performance indicators in sub-supplier contracts can be effective in improving product and service quality.

Within-game uncertainty of outcome and the demand for professional basketball on television

This paper provides one of the first tests of the within-game uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. We examine the relationship between the demand for nationally televised regular season NBA basketball viewing and outcome uncertainty while the games are being played. We use granular television viewing and scoring data and account for the dynamics of television viewing. We find evidence of modest but statistically significant effects of outcome uncertainty on the size of the TV viewing audience which occur largely at the end of the game, supporting the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. These effects are subject to diminishing marginal returns. We also find evidence of a sizable independent loss of viewers at halftime and the end of games that is unrelated to outcome uncertainty.

A prediction model for electroconvulsive therapy effectiveness in patients with major depressive disorder from the Dutch ECT Consortium (DEC).

Reliable predictors for electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) effectiveness would allow a more precise and personalized approach for the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD). Prediction models were created using a priori selected clinical variables based on previous meta-analyses. Multivariable linear regression analysis was used, applying backwards selection to determine predictor variables while allowing non-linear relations, to develop a prediction model for depression outcome post-ECT (and logistic regression for remission and response as secondary outcome measures). Internal validation and internal-external cross-validation were used to examine overfitting and generalizability of the model's predictive performance. In total, 1892 adult patients with MDD were included from 22 clinical and research cohorts of the twelve sites within the Dutch ECT Consortium. The final primary prediction model showed several factors that significantly predicted a lower depression score post-ECT: higher age, shorter duration of the current depressive episode, severe MDD with psychotic features, lower level of previous antidepressant resistance in the current episode, higher pre-ECT global cognitive functioning, absence of a comorbid personality disorder, and a lower level of failed psychotherapy in the current episode. The optimism-adjusted R² of the final model was 19%. This prediction model based on readily available clinical information can reduce uncertainty of ECT outcomes and hereby inform clinical decision-making, as prompt referral for ECT may be particularly beneficial for individuals with the above-mentioned characteristics. However, despite including a large number of pretreatment factors, a large proportion of the variance in depression outcome post-ECT remained unpredictable.

Novel analysis of alignment error on spherical Fizeau interferometer and uncertainty evaluation of sphericity calibration system based on random ball test

The National Metrology Institute of Japan (NMIJ) has developed a high-precision sphericity calibration system utilizing a Fizeau interferometer and conducted a thorough evaluation of the system's measurement uncertainty. Generally, there are two principal sources of uncertainty in the measurement outcomes when utilizing a spherical Fizeau interferometer. First, the accuracy of the system is significantly influenced by the prior knowledge of the reference sphere surface's absolute profile. To address this, the study established a straightforward yet effective calibration system for the reference sphere surface using a random ball test method. Second, the system's precision is affected by misalignment aberration, which occurs when there is any lateral or longitudinal displacement of the test sphere from the confocal position relative to the reference sphere. This misalignment can introduce both high-order shape errors (misalignment aberrations) and low-order shape errors (alignment errors). Through analytical consideration of an observation coordinate system on the camera plane, this study delves into misalignment aberrations, suggesting that the impact of misalignment should be determined experimentally for each reference sphere unit due to potential imperfections that may be revealed by misalignment. Furthermore, the study proposes that uncertainties related to misalignment aberrations are theoretically confirmed to be smaller than previous studies by conducting an in-depth uncertainty analysis of the misalignment, with a focus on the observation coordinate system on the camera plane. Notably, the research demonstrates that a measurement uncertainty level of λ/100 is achievable, maintaining a broader tolerance for misalignment than previously reported studies. The uncertainty of calibration of the reference sphere unit's absolute profile was 4.2 nm and the uncertainty of sample measurement was determined to be 4.6 nm with misalignment tolerance of ±λ/10. This advancement marks a stride toward improving the accuracy and reliability of sphericity measurements, offering potential for widespread application in precision engineering and metrology.

Caregiver Values and Preferences Related to Surgical Decision-Making for Children with Medical Complexity

To uncover the values and preferences of the caregivers for children with medical complexity using the test case of surgical treatment decision-making for pediatric neuromuscular scoliosis that will inform the future development of a decision support tool in this population. We conducted a qualitative study of semistructured interviews of English- and Spanish-speaking caregivers of children with neuromuscular scoliosis from 2 geographically distinct children's hospitals. We used purposive sampling of language and treatment options selected to capture diverse experiences. Analysis was on the basis of grounded theory with synthesized caregiver values and preferences themes. From 47 participants, we completed 41 interviews (9 in Spanish). Caregivers had a mean age of 43.2years, were mostly White (66%), and had children with a mean age of 15.6. In total, 64% chose surgery. The following values and preferences were important to many caregivers: reducing scoliosis-related pain, minimizing mobility limitations to optimize socioemotional quality of life, limiting the impact of comorbidities on overall quality of life, information provided by peer support, the uncertainty of outcomes due to underlying comorbidities, and the uncertainty related to the anticipated progression of their child's scoliosis curve. Caregivers experienced immense uncertainty related to treatment outcomes due to their child's comorbidities. Caregivers of children with medical complexity may benefit from decision support that includes both values clarification exercises to help caregivers identify what of the many possible values and preferences are important to them and novel methods to communicate uncertainty in the care of CMC.

Groundwater modelling for decision-support in practice: Insights from Sweden

Groundwater is an essential resource for drinking water, food production, and industrial applications worldwide. Over-exploitation and pollution pose significant risks to groundwater sustainability. Groundwater models can be powerful tools for optimizing use, managing risks, and aiding decision-making. For this purpose, models should assimilate pertinent data and quantify uncertainties in outcomes. We examine applied modelling for characterization and decision support in Sweden from 2010 to 2023. We also review syllabi of water-related courses in Swedish higher education to assess the inclusion and extent of groundwater modelling education. We find that important academic advances in groundwater modelling over the past two decades have not translated into practical application within Sweden’s industry, that uncertainty quantification is rarely undertaken, and that groundwater modelling remains a low priority in higher education. Based on these findings, we offer recommendations that, while informed by the Swedish context, hold relevance for educational institutions, industry, and decision-makers internationally.

A Novel Method Based on the Fuzzy Entropy Measure to Optimize the Fuzziness in Trapezoidal Strong Fuzzy Partitions

Analyzing the uncertainty of outcomes based on estimates of the data’s membership degrees to fuzzy sets is essential for making decisions. These fuzzy sets are often designated by experts as strong fuzzy partitions of the data domain with trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Some indices of the fuzzy set’s fuzziness provide an assessment of the degree of uncertainty of the results. It is feasible to bring the fuzzy sets’ fuzziness below a tolerable level by suitably redefining the strong fuzzy partition. Significant differences in the original fuzzy partition, however, result in disparities concerning the decision maker’s approximative reasoning and the interpretability of the results. In light of this, we provide in this study a technique applied to trapezoidal strong fuzzy partitions that, while not appreciably altering the original fuzzy partition, reduces the fuzziness of its fuzzy sets. The fuzziness of the fuzzy sets is assessed using the De Luca and Termini fuzzy entropy. An iterative process is then executed, with the aim of modifying the cores of the trapezoidal fuzzy partitions to decrease their fuzziness. This technique is tested on datasets containing average daily temperatures measured in various cities. The findings demonstrate that this approach strikes a great balance between the goal of lessening the fuzziness of the fuzzy sets and the goal of not appreciably altering the original fuzzy partition.

Coping Strategies in Analyzing the Stress Impact of Online Gambling Addiction for Children and Adults

Increased internet accessibility has opened up opportunities for people to engage in various types of gaming, such as poker, online casinos, sports betting, and slot machines. This research aims to describe coping strategies for minimizing the stressful impact of online gambling addiction. This research uses a qualitative approach with a literature study. The results of this research reveal that online gambling addiction has a serious impact on people's stress levels in Indonesia. Factors such as financial losses, uncertainty of gambling outcomes, and interpersonal tension due to excessive involvement in online gambling activities are the main causes of increased stress levels. Coping strategies to minimize the stressful impact of online gambling addiction are achieved by focusing efforts on financial management, social support, and developing entertainment alternatives. The study found that dependence on online gambling triggers significant stress in both children and adults. The stress was caused by a variety of factors, including financial loss, impaired social relationships, and psychological impacts such as anxiety and depression.

Association between genetic information provision and decisional conflict in patients with cancer.

227 Background: The decisional conflict scale (DCS) measures personal perception of uncertainty when facing a decision. In patients with cancer, decision conflict is likely when considering uncertainty in oncologic systemic treatment outcomes. Cancer genomic information can introduce more uncertainty and complexity in care. This study aims to evaluate patients’ DCS score pre or post discussing next generation sequencing (NGS) results with a medical oncologist, and assess factors that correlate with high decision conflict. Methods: Patients diagnosed with incurable/metastatic cancer who underwent molecular characterization with tissue+/- liquid NGS testing were enrolled. Survey instruments included the validated DCS (five subscales: informed, values clarity, support, uncertainty, effective decision), and EQ-5D-5L. DCS was administered pre or post medical oncology consultation that included review of tissue +/- liquid NGS results and treatment options. Higher DCS score correlates with higher perception of uncertainty. Descriptive statistics were used to assess clinical and demographic risk factors. Multivariable logistic regression analysis estimated the correlation between high DCS and clinical factors. Results: 335 DCS surveys were completed by 227 patients: 188 before and 147 after discussing tissue+/- liquid NGS results with a medical oncologist. Baseline characteristics: 56% female, median age 65, ECOG 0-1 58%, median EQ5D VAS score 68, GI/lung/gyne/breast/other 42/32/10/5/11%, white/Asian/other/unknown 66/12/5/17%. Tier 1 variants were identified in 35% of patients. Patients reported decreased decision conflict after consultation. Multivariable logistic regression analysis including sex, age, race and tumor group did not predict for high DCS pre-consultation. MVA post NGS results that also included Tier 1 variants (present / absent) did not predict for high DSC post consultation. Conclusions: Communication regarding genomic-based tumor assessment can positively support patients in decision conflict, and improve their confidence in their treatment choice, regardless of the findings of the report. Low DCS after consultation supports the goal of shared decision making for cancer treatment. Clinical trial information: NCT05057234 . DCS subscale Pre-consultation Post-consultation p value Informed 49.3 37.5 <0.001 Values clarity 45.3 35.5 <0.001 Support 34.4 28.2 0.005 Uncertainty 46.8 36.1 <0.001 Effective decision 40.0 31.4 <0.001 TOTAL 42.9 33.6 <0.001

Construction and Application of Integrated Diagnosis and Treatment System for Mycoplasma Pneumoniae Pneumonia in Children: A Regional Perspective

This paper aims to explore the construction and application of an integrated diagnosis and treatment system for Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (MPP) in children within a specific region. MPP is a common respiratory infection among children, posing challenges in diagnosis and uncertainty in treatment outcomes. By integrating modern technologies and interdisciplinary medical resources, this paper proposes a comprehensive system aimed at enhancing diagnostic accuracy, personalized treatment effects, and optimizing the efficiency of medical resource utilization. Through theoretical discussion, methodological descriptions, and practical case analyses, the paper demonstrates the system's practical application and potential for future development.

Medium-term economic impacts of cover crop adoption in Maryland

Cover cropping has the potential to generate private economic benefits to farm operations as well as larger-scale environmental benefits to the broader community. However, cover crop adoption remains limited in the United States (US) (i.e., 4.7 % in 2022 (USDA-NASS, 2024)), primarily due to uncertainty in economic outcomes, with several studies showing potentially negative net returns from cover crop use in the short-term (1–3 years). This study investigates the medium-term (5–7 years) economic impact of cover crop adoption using plot-level data from field experiments in the state of Maryland. The empirical analysis employs ordinary least squares (OLS) statistical models and partial budgeting techniques to achieve the study objective. Our results show that cover crops do not have a statistically significant effect on crop yield, fertilizer costs, or pesticide costs, but we find that cover crop use statistically increases field operation and seed expenses. As a result, the private net return from cover crop adoption in the medium term is generally negative based on the Maryland field trial data used in the analysis. Specifically, the average net return per acre with cover crops is approximately $60-$90 lower for corn and around $60 lower for soybeans compared to fields without cover crops. This empirical finding suggests that public support through incentive payments may help further incentivize cover crop adoption in the US, which can then provide environmental and ecosystem services that are of benefit to the general public.

Domestic vs. foreign football matches: are viewers interested in the same features?

ABSTRACT Previous research on broadcast football (soccer) focused exclusively on domestic matches, overlooking the potential audience that foreign football matches may have on domestic television. This research aims to reveal the determinants of audience for foreign football matches and compare them with domestic ones. The dataset comprises 528 free-to-air matches (2017–2020), broadcasted in Russia. Ordinary Least Squares regressions model the data. Our findings evidence that derbies and high-quality matches increase the broadcast demand for both domestic and foreign matches. However, we offer evidence that scheduling elements and the uncertainty of outcome have a different impact on domestic and international matches in the same setting.