Uncertainty Interval Research Articles

Quantifying the mental health and economic impacts of prospective Universal Basic Income schemes among young people in the UK: a microsimulation modelling study

ObjectiveUniversal Basic Income (UBI)—a largely unconditional, regular payment to all adults to support basic needs—has been proposed as a policy to increase the size and security of household incomes and...

The Correlation of Global Burden of Vision Impairment and Ambient Atmospheric Fine Particulate Matter.

To assess the correlation between the worldwide burden of vision impairment (VI) and fine particulate matter (PM) 2.5. In this retrospective cross-sectional study, global and national prevalence and disability-adjusted lost year (DALY) numbers and rates of total VI, glaucoma, cataract, and age-related macular degeneration (AMD) were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease database. The global and national levels of PM2.5 levels were also extracted. The main outcome measures were the correlation of PM2.5 levels with total VI and three ocular diseases in different age, sex, and socioeconomic subgroups. In 2019, the worldwide prevalence of total VI and exposure level of PM2.5 was 9.6% (95% uncertainty interval: 8.0-11.3) and 42.5 μg/m3, respectively. The national age-standardized prevalence rates of total VI (r p = 0.52, P < 0.001), glaucoma (r p = 0.65, P < 0.001), AMD (r p = 0.67, P < 0.001), and cataract (r p = 0.44, P < 0.001) have a positive correlation with PM2.5 levels. In addition, the national age-standardized DALY rates of total VI (r p = 0.62, P < 0.001), glaucoma (r p = 0.62, P < 0.001), AMD (r p = 0.54, P < 0.001), and cataract (r p = 0.45, P < 0.001) significantly correlated with PM2.5 levels. The correlations remained significant in different age, sex, and sociodemographic subgroups. National prevalence rates of VI and three major ocular diseases correlate significantly with PM2.5 exposure levels, worldwide.

Global, regional, and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease associated with disability and premature death. Up-to-date estimates of the burden of rheumatoid arthritis are required for health-care planning, resource allocation, and prevention. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we provide updated estimates of the prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis and its associated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, year, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050. Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using Bayesian meta-regression models and data from population-based studies and medical claims data (98 prevalence and 25 incidence studies). Mortality was estimated from vital registration data with the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm). Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated with use of standard GBD lifetables, and years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence, a meta-analysed distribution of rheumatoid arthritis severity, and disability weights. DALYs were calculated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Smoking was the only risk factor analysed. Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was forecast to 2050 by logistic regression with Socio-Demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by projected population estimates. In 2020, an estimated 17·6 million (95% uncertainty interval 15·8-20·3) people had rheumatoid arthritis worldwide. The age-standardised global prevalence rate was 208·8 cases (186·8-241·1) per 100 000 population, representing a 14·1% (12·7-15·4) increase since 1990. Prevalence was higher in females (age-standardised female-to-male prevalence ratio 2·45 [2·40-2·47]). The age-standardised death rate was 0·47 (0·41-0·54) per 100 000 population (38 300 global deaths [33 500-44 000]), a 23·8% (17·5-29·3) decrease from 1990 to 2020. The 2020 DALY count was 3 060 000 (2 320 000-3 860 000), with an age-standardised DALY rate of 36·4 (27·6-45·9) per 100 000 population. YLDs accounted for 76·4% (68·3-81·0) of DALYs. Smoking risk attribution for rheumatoid arthritis DALYs was 7·1% (3·6-10·3). We forecast that 31·7 million (25·8-39·0) individuals will be living with rheumatoid arthritis worldwide by 2050. Rheumatoid arthritis mortality has decreased globally over the past three decades. Global age-standardised prevalence rate and YLDs have increased over the same period, and the number of cases is projected to continue to increase to the year 2050. Improved access to early diagnosis and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis globally is required to reduce the future burden of the disease. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

Global burden and inequality of maternal and neonatal disorders: based on data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study.

Maternal and neonatal disorders account for substantial health loss across the lifespan from early childhood. These problems may be related to health inequality. To provide evidence for improvement in health policies regarding maternal and neonatal disorder inequity. This was a population-based cross-sectional study based on 2019 Global Burden of Disease data. Annual cases and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2019 were collected from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study. Concentration curves and concentration indices were used to summarize the degree of socioeconomic-related inequality. For maternal disorders, the global ASRs of incidence, prevalence, death and DALYs were 2889.4 (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 2562.9-3251.9), 502.9 (95% UI 418.7-598.0), 5.0 (95% UI 4.4-5.8) and 324.9 (95% UI 284.0-369.1) per 100000 women in 2019, respectively. The ASRs of maternal disorders were all obviously reduced and remained pro-poor from 1990 to 2019. In neonatal disorders, the global ASRs of incidence, prevalence, death and DALYs were 363.3 (95% UI 334.6-396.8), 1239.8 (95% UI 1142.1-1356.7), 29.1 (95% UI 24.8-34.5) and 2828.3 (95% UI 2441.6-3329.6) per 100000 people in 2019, respectively. The global ASRs of incidence, death and DALYs in neonatal disorders have remained pro-poor. However, the socioeconomic-related fairness in the ASR of neonatal disorder prevalence is being levelled. The global burden of maternal and neonatal disorders has remained high, and socioeconomic-related inequality (pro-poor) tended not to change between 1990 and 2019.

Stochastic Interventional Vaccine Efficacy and Principal Surrogate Analyses of Antibody Markers as Correlates of Protection against Symptomatic COVID-19 in the COVE mRNA-1273 Trial.

The COVE trial randomized participants to receive two doses of mRNA-1273 vaccine or placebo on Days 1 and 29 (D1, D29). Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Spike IgG binding antibodies (bAbs), anti-receptor binding domain IgG bAbs, 50% inhibitory dilution neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers, and 80% inhibitory dilution nAb titers were measured at D29 and D57. We assessed these markers as correlates of protection (CoPs) against COVID-19 using stochastic interventional vaccine efficacy (SVE) analysis and principal surrogate (PS) analysis, frameworks not used in our previous COVE immune correlates analyses. By SVE analysis, hypothetical shifts of the D57 Spike IgG distribution from a geometric mean concentration (GMC) of 2737 binding antibody units (BAU)/mL (estimated vaccine efficacy (VE): 92.9% (95% CI: 91.7%, 93.9%)) to 274 BAU/mL or to 27,368 BAU/mL resulted in an overall estimated VE of 84.2% (79.0%, 88.1%) and 97.6% (97.4%, 97.7%), respectively. By binary marker PS analysis of Low and High subgroups (cut-point: 2094 BAU/mL), the ignorance interval (IGI) and estimated uncertainty interval (EUI) for VE were [85%, 90%] and (78%, 93%) for Low compared to [95%, 96%] and (92%, 97%) for High. By continuous marker PS analysis, the IGI and 95% EUI for VE at the 2.5th percentile (519.4 BAU/mL) vs. at the 97.5th percentile (9262.9 BAU/mL) of D57 Spike IgG concentration were [92.6%, 93.4%] and (89.2%, 95.7%) vs. [94.3%, 94.6%] and (89.7%, 97.0%). Results were similar for other D29 and D57 markers. Thus, the SVE and PS analyses additionally support all four markers at both time points as CoPs.

Mortality attributable to diets low in fruits, vegetables, and whole grains in Brazil in 2019: evidencing regional health inequalities

ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to describe non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality attributable to diets low in whole grains, fruits, and vegetables in Brazil in 2019. Study designEcological study. MethodsData from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 for adults aged ≥25 years of both sexes in Brazil and its 27 states were used to estimate the intake of fruits, vegetables, and whole grains; the NCD mortality attributable to these dietary risk factors; and the correlation between socio-demographic index (SDI), the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) per 100,000 population, and intake. ResultsThe Brazilian population had suboptimal consumption of fruits, vegetables, and whole grains, and 62,439 NCD deaths were attributable to these three dietary risk factors in 2019. The highest ASMRs were found for diets low in whole grains (14.4, 95% uncertainty interval [95% UI]: 7.8–18.4), followed by diets low in vegetables (7.6, 95% UI: 4.8–10.3) and fruits (5.0, 95% UI: 3.2–7.0). A similar ranking was observed for all Brazilian states. The SDI was negatively correlated with ASMRs and was positively correlated with the investigated dietary risks. The population from the Northeast and North states presented the lowest SDI and the highest NCD ASMRs attributable to diets low in fruits, vegetables, and whole grains and consumed less of all three health foods. ConclusionDiets low in fruits, vegetables, and mainly whole grains substantially contributed to NCD mortality in Brazil, especially in states with low SDI. Our findings support the need to target food interventions to reduce regional health inequalities within the country.

Modelled economic evaluation of a virtual emergency department in Victoria.

Virtual ED (VED) can potentially alleviate ED overcrowding which has been a public health challenge. The aim of the present study was to conduct a return-on-investment analysis of a VED programme developed in response to changing healthcare needs in Australia. An economic model was developed based on initial patient outcome data to assess the healthcare costs, potential costs saved and return on investment (ROI) from the VED. The VED programme operating as part of Alfred Health Emergency Services. The participants were the first 188 patients accessing the Alfred Health VED. VED is the delivery of emergency assessment and management of specific patients virtually via audio-visual teleconferencing. ROI ratios that compare cost savings with intervention costs. The mean total operational cost of VED for 79 days for 188 patients was A$344 117 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] $296 800-$392 088). The VED led to a potential A$286 779 (95% UI $241 688-$330 568) healthcare cost saving from reductions in emergency visits and A$97 569 (95% UI $74 233-$123 117) cost saving in ambulance services. The ROI ratio was estimated at 1.12 (95% UI 0.96-1.32). The VED was cost neutral in a conservatively modelled scenario but promising if any hospital admission could be saved. Ongoing research examining a larger cohort with community follow up is required to confirm this promising result.

Future Projections of Diabetes-Related Amputations in Eastern Saudi Arabia During 2022-2045 Using a Validated Epidemiological Model.

Diabetes-related amputations (DRA) are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. There are limited studies on the burden of this condition and its future projections in Saudi Arabia. To estimate future forecasts in the burden of DRA (number of cases and mortalities) among adult diabetics (aged ≥20 years) in Al-Ahsa, Eastern Region of Saudi Arabia from 2022 to 2045. A simulation epidemiological model was designed and validated. It is a simple discrete-state model composed of multiple states, in which diabetics make annual transitions to either 'Major Amputations', 'Minor Amputations', or 'No Amputations' states, and then to two states of mortalities. The data inputs required are minimal, including the total diagnosed cases of diabetes for 2022 and transition parameters obtained from recent published literature. The model used some reasonable assumptions and scenarios for testing potential uncertainties around the model outputs. Model validation was conducted by comparing its estimates with the observed local data from two main hospitals in Al-Ahsa for 2022. The model projected that the total number of DRA among diabetics in Al-Ahsa will increase from 129 (uncertainty interval (UI): 103-154) in 2022 to 169 (UI: 136-203) in 2030 and 227 (UI: 182-272) in 2045, assuming that the incidence rates of major and minor amputations among diabetics will remain constant. However, assuming that these incidence rates will show a gradual decline of 20% every three years, the model predicted the total number of DRA to decrease from 103 (UI: 82-124) in 2022 to 91 (UI: 73-110) in 2030 and 61 (UI: 49-74) in 2045. DRA impose a considerable burden on patients and the healthcare system, despite the possibility of a potential decrease in incidence rates.

The Global Burden of Vascular Intestinal Disorders in 204 Countries and Territories From 1990 to 2019: Global Burden of Diseases Study.

Objectives: Assess the prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of vascular intestinal disorders (VID) from 1990 to 2019. Methods: This study conducted a secondary data analysis utilizing the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019. The prevalence, mortality and DALYs of VID were analyzed by sex, age and socio-demographic index (SDI), respectively. Analyses were performed by using R software. Results: Globally, the number of prevalent VID cases increased from 100,158 (95% uncertainty interval: 89,428-114,013) in 1,990-175,740 (157,941-198,969) in 2019. However, the age-standardized rates (ASR) of VID prevalence declined from 2.47 (95% uncertainty interval: 2.24-2.76) per 100,000 population to 2.21 (1.98-2.48) per 100,000 population between 1990 and 2019. Furthermore, the ASR of mortality also decreased from 1990 to 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, the regions with high and high-middle level exhibited the highest diseases burden. Conclusion: Globally, the diseases burden associated with VID demonstrated a decline from 1990 to 2019. However, concerted efforts are still required to enhance measures to combat VID within countries categorized as high and high-middle SDI.

The burden of vision loss in the Middle East and North Africa region, 1990–2019

BackgroundThe loss of vision is a substantial public health concern that has important implications for an individual’s quality of life. The primary objective of this research was to document the burden of vision loss in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, spanning the years 1990–2019, by age group, sex, underlying cause and sociodemographic index (SDI).MethodsPublicly available data concerning the burden of vision loss were acquired from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. The data encompassed all 21 countries within the MENA region for the period spanning 1990 to 2019. The estimates were reported as raw counts and age-standardised rates per 100,000, accompanied by their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).ResultsIn 2019, MENA had an age-standardised point prevalence of 7040.0 (95% UI: 6195.0, 8002.7) and an YLD rate of 314.5 (222.1, 427.6) per 100,000 for vision loss, which were 11.1% (-12.5, -9.7) and 24.3% (-27.6, -20.8) lower, respectively, than in 1990. In 2019, Afghanistan [469.6 (333.0, 632.8)] had the largest age-standardised YLD rate and Turkey [210.7 (145.3, 290.9)] had the lowest. All countries showed a decrease in the age-standardised point prevalence and YLD rate between 1990 and 2019, except for Oman, Afghanistan, and Yemen. Furthermore, in 2019 the largest number of prevalent cases and YLDs were found in the 65–69 age group. Also in 2019, the age-standardised YLD rates in MENA exceeded the global averages for most age groups, for both males and females. In 2019, refractive disorders were the most common types of vision loss among children, adolescents, and middle-age adults in MENA, while near vision loss and cataracts were the most common among older adults. Finally, the burden of vision loss had a slightly negatively association with SDI over the period 1990–2019.ConclusionAlthough the burden of vision loss has decreased over the last three decades, the prevalence remains high. These results underscore the importance of healthcare policymakers taking action to implement preventive measures, especially among the elderly and those living in low socioeconomic countries, to decrease the attributable burden in MENA.

Data-Driven Parameter Estimation of Nonlinear Ship Manoeuvring Model in Shallow Water Using Truncated Least Squares Support Vector Machines

A data-driven method, the truncated LS-SVM, is proposed for estimating the nondimensional hydrodynamic coefficients of a nonlinear manoeuvring model. Experimental data collected in a shallow water towing tank are utilized in this study. To assess the accuracy and robustness of the truncated LS-SVM method, different test data sizes are selected as the training set. The identified nondimensional hydrodynamic coefficients are presented, as well as the corresponding parameter uncertainty and confidence intervals. The validation is carried out using the reference data, and statistical measures, such as the correlation coefficient, centred RMS difference, and standard deviation are employed to quantify the similarity. The results demonstrate that the truncated LS-SVM method effectively models the hydrodynamic force prediction problems with a large training set, reducing parameter uncertainty and yielding more convincing results.

Physical activity and cancer risk: a dose-response analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Adopting a healthy lifestyle, including regular physical activity, is widely believed to decrease cancer risk. This study aimed to quantitatively establish the dose-response relationships between total physical activity and the risk of breast, colon, lung, gastric, and liver cancers. A systematic review and dose-response analysis were conducted using PubMed and Embase from January 1, 1980 to March 20, 2023. Prospective cohort studies that examined the association between physical activity and the risks of any of the 5 outcomes were included. The search was confined to publications in the English language with a specific focus on human studies. Physical activity is standardized by using the data from US National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) and the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database. A total of 98 studies, involving a combined population of 16,418,361 individuals, were included in the analysis. Among the included studies, 57 focused on breast cancer, 17 on lung cancer, 23 on colon cancer, 5 on gastric cancer, and 7 on liver cancer. Overall, elevated levels of physical activity exhibited an inverse correlation with the risk of cancer. The dose-response curve for lung cancer exhibited a non-linear pattern, with the greatest benefit risk reduction observed at 13,200 MET-minutes/week of physical activity, resulting in a 14.7% reduction in risk (relative risk 0.853, uncertainty interval 0.798 to 0.912) compared to the inactive population. In contrast, the dose-response curves for colon, gastric, breast, and liver cancers showed linear associations, indicating that heightened levels of total physical activity were consistently associated with reduced cancer risks. However, the increase in physical activity yielded a smaller risk reduction for colon and gastric cancers compared to breast and liver cancers. Compared to individuals with insufficient activity (total activity level < 600 MET-minutes/week), individuals with high levels of activity (≥ 8,000 MET-minutes/week) experienced a 10.3% (0.897, 0.860 to 0.934) risk reduction for breast cancer; 5.9% (0.941, 0.884 to 1.001) for lung cancer; 7.1% (0.929, 0.909 to 0.949) for colon cancer; 5.1% (0.949, 0.908 to 0.992) for gastric cancer; 17.1% (0.829, 0.760 to 0.903) for liver cancer. This study demonstrated a significant inverse relationship between total physical activity and the risk of breast, gastric, liver, colon, and lung cancers.

Economic Evaluation of Novel Models of Care for Patients With Acute Medical Problems

During COVID-19, Singapore simultaneously experienced a dengue outbreak, and acute hospitals were under pressure to lower bed occupancy rates. This led to new models of care to treat patients with acute, low-severity medical conditions either at home, in a hospital-at-home (HaH) model, or in a clinic-style setting sited at the emergency department in an ambulatory care team (ACT) model, but a reliable cost analysis for these models is lacking. To compare personnel costs of HaH and ACT with inpatient care. In this economic evaluation study, time-driven activity-based costing was used to compare the personnel cost of inpatient care with treating dengue via HaH and treating chest pain via ACT. Participants were patients with nonsevere dengue and chest pain unrelated to a coronary event admitted via the emergency department to the internal medicine service of a tertiary hospital in Singapore. HaH for dengue and ACT for chest pain. A process map was created for the patient journey for a typical patient with each condition. The amount of time personnel spent on delivering care was estimated and the cost per minute determined based on their wages in 2022. The total cost of care was calculated by multiplying the time spent by the per-minute cost of the personnel resource and summing all costs. Compared with inpatient care, HaH used 50% less nursing time (418 minutes, 95% uncertainty interval [UI], 370 to 465 minutes) but 80% more medical time (303 minutes, 95% UI, 270 to 338 minutes) per case of dengue. If implemented nationally, HaH would save an estimated 56 828 SGD per year (95% UI, -169 497 to 281 412 SGD [US $41 856; 95% UI, -$124 839 to $207 268]). The probability that HaH is cost saving was 69.2%. Compared with inpatient care, ACT used 15% less nursing time (296 minutes, 95% UI, 257 to 335 minutes) and 50% less medical time (57 minutes, 95% UI, 46 to 69 minutes) per case of chest pain. If implemented nationally, ACT would save an estimated 1 561 185 SGD per year (95% UI, 1 040 666 to 2 086 518 SGD [US $1 149 862; 95% UI, $766 483 to $1 536 786]). The probability that ACT is cost saving was 100%. This economic evaluation found that the HaH and ACT models decreased the overall personnel cost of care. Reorganizing hospital resources may help hospitals reap the benefits of reduced hospital-acquired infections, improved patient recovery, and reduced hospital bed occupancy rates.

The Health Inequality Impact of Liquid Biopsy to Inform First-Line Treatment of Advanced Non–Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Distributional Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

ObjectivesTo perform a distributional cost-effectiveness analysis of liquid biopsy (LB) followed by, if needed, tissue biopsy (TB) (LB-first strategy) relative to a TB-only strategy to inform first-line treatment of advanced non–small cell lung cancer (aNSCLC) from a US payer perspective by which we quantify the impact of LB-first on population health inequality according to race and ethnicity. MethodsWith a health economic model, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs per patient were estimated for each subgroup. Given the lifetime risk of aNSCLC, and assuming equally distributed opportunity costs, the incremental net health benefits of LB-first were calculated, which were used to estimate general population quality-adjusted life expectancy at birth (QALE) by race and ethnicity with and without LB-first. The degree of QALYs and QALE differences with the strategies was expressed with inequality indices. Their differences were defined as the inequality impact of LB-first. ResultsLB-first resulted in an additional 0.21 (95% uncertainty interval: 0.07-0.39) QALYs among treated patients, with the greatest gain observed among Asian patients (0.31 QALYs [0.09-0.61]). LB-first resulted in an increase in relative inequality in QALYs among patients, but a minor decrease in relative inequality in QALE. ConclusionsLB-first to inform first-line aNSCLC therapy can improve health outcomes. With current diagnostic performance, the benefit is the greatest among Asian patients, thereby potentially widening racial and ethnic differences in survival among patients with aNSCLC. Assuming equally distributed opportunity costs and access, LB-first does not worsen and, in fact, may reduce inequality in general population health according to race and ethnicity.

Estimation of cardiorespiratory fitness using heart rate and step count data

Predicting cardiorespiratory fitness levels can be useful for measuring progress in an exercise program as well as for stratifying cardiovascular risk in asymptomatic adults. This study proposes a model to predict fitness level in terms of maximal oxygen uptake using anthropometric, heart rate, and step count data. The model was trained on a diverse cohort of 3115 healthy subjects (1035 women and 2080 men) aged 42 ± 10.6 years and tested on a cohort of 779 healthy subjects (260 women and 519 men) aged 42 ± 10.18 years. The developed model is capable of making accurate and reliable predictions with the average test set error of 3.946 ml/kg/min. The maximal oxygen uptake labels were obtained using wearable devices (Apple Watch and Garmin) during recorded workout sessions. Additionally, the model was validated on a sample of 10 subjects with maximal oxygen uptake determined directly using a treadmill protocol in a laboratory setting and showed an error of 4.982 ml/kg/min. Unlike most other models, which use accelerometer readings as additional input data, the proposed model relies solely on heart rate and step counts—data readily available on the majority of fitness trackers. The proposed model provides a point estimation and a probabilistic prediction of cardiorespiratory fitness level, thus it can estimate the prediction’s uncertainty and construct confidence intervals.

The health and economic impact and cost effectiveness of interventions for the prevention and control of overweight and obesity in Kenya: a stakeholder engaged modelling study

BackgroundThe global increase in mean body mass index has resulted in a substantial increase of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including in many low- and middle-income countries such as Kenya. This paper assesses four interventions for the prevention and control of overweight and obesity in Kenya to determine their potential health and economic impact and cost effectiveness.MethodsWe reviewed the literature to identify evidence of effect, determine the intervention costs, disease costs and total healthcare costs. We used a proportional multistate life table model to quantify the potential impacts on health conditions and healthcare costs, modelling the 2019 Kenya population over their remaining lifetime. Considering a health system perspective, two interventions were assessed for cost-effectiveness. In addition, we used the Human Capital Approach to estimate productivity gains.ResultsOver the lifetime of the 2019 population, impacts were estimated at 203,266 health-adjusted life years (HALYs) (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 163,752 − 249,621) for a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages, 151,718 HALYs (95% UI 55,257 − 250,412) for mandatory kilojoule menu labelling, 3.7 million HALYs (95% UI 2,661,365–4,789,915) for a change in consumption levels related to supermarket food purchase patterns and 13.1 million HALYs (95% UI 11,404,317 − 15,152,341) for a change in national consumption back to the 1975 average levels of energy intake. This translates to 4, 3, 73 and 261 HALYs per 1,000 persons. Lifetime healthcare cost savings were approximately United States Dollar (USD) 0.14 billion (USD 3 per capita), USD 0.08 billion (USD 2 per capita), USD 1.9 billion (USD 38 per capita) and USD 6.2 billion (USD 124 per capita), respectively. Lifetime productivity gains were approximately USD 1.8 billion, USD 1.2 billion, USD 28 billion and USD 92 billion. Both the 20% tax on sugar sweetened beverages and the mandatory kilojoule menu labelling were assessed for cost effectiveness and found dominant (health promoting and cost-saving).ConclusionAll interventions evaluated yielded substantive health gains and economic benefits and should be considered for implementation in Kenya.

Antagonism between ambient ozone increase and urbanization-oriented population migration on Chinese cardiopulmonary mortality

Ever-increasing ambient ozone (O3) pollution in China has been exacerbating cardiopulmonary premature deaths. However, the urban-rural exposure inequity has seldom been explored. Here, we assess population-scale O3 exposure and mortality burdens between 1990 and 2019 based on integrated pollution tracking and epidemiological evidence. We find Chinese population have been suffering from climbing O3 exposure by 4.3± 2.8 ppb per decade as a result of rapid urbanization and growing prosperity of socioeconomic activities. Rural residents are broadly exposed to 9.8± 4.1 ppb higher ambient O3 than the adjacent urban citizens, and thus urbanization-oriented migration compromises the exposure-associated mortality on total population. Cardiopulmonary excess premature deaths attributable to long-term O3 exposure, 373,500 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 240,600-510,900) in 2019, is underestimated in previous studies due to ignorance of cardiovascular causes. Future O3 pollution policy should focus more on rural population who are facing an aggravating threat of mortality risks to ameliorate environmental health injustice.

Global burden of peripheral artery disease and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Peripheral artery disease is a growing public health problem. We aimed to estimate the global disease burden of peripheral artery disease, its risk factors, and temporospatial trends to inform policy and public measures. Data on peripheral artery disease were modelled using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 database. Prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality estimates of peripheral artery disease were extracted from GBD 2019. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rate of peripheral artery disease attributed to modifiable risk factors were also assessed. In 2019, the number of people aged 40 years and older with peripheral artery disease was 113 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99·2-128·4), with a global prevalence of 1·52% (95% UI 1·33-1·72), of which 42·6% was in countries with low to middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI). The global prevalence of peripheral artery disease was higher in older people, (14·91% [12·41-17·87] in those aged 80-84 years), and was generally higher in females than in males. Globally, the total number of DALYs attributable to modifiable risk factors in 2019 accounted for 69·4% (64·2-74·3) of total peripheral artery disease DALYs. The prevalence of peripheral artery disease was highest in countries with high SDI and lowest in countries with low SDI, whereas DALY and mortality rates showed U-shaped curves, with the highest burden in the high and low SDI quintiles. The total number of people with peripheral artery disease has increased globally from 1990 to 2019. Despite the lower prevalence of peripheral artery disease in males and low-income countries, these groups showed similar DALY rates to females and higher-income countries, highlighting disproportionate burden in these groups. Modifiable risk factors were responsible for around 70% of the global peripheral artery disease burden. Public measures could mitigate the burden of peripheral artery disease by modifying risk factors. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Catastrophic health expenditure during the COVID-19 pandemic in five countries: a time-series analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted health systems in 2020, but it is unclear how financial hardship due to out-of-pocket (OOP) health-care costs was affected. We analysed catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) in 2020 in five countries with available household expenditure data: Belarus, Mexico, Peru, Russia, and Viet Nam. In Mexico and Peru, we also conducted an analysis of drivers of change in CHE in 2020 using publicly available data. In this time-series analysis, we defined CHE as when OOP health-care spending exceeds 10% of consumption expenditure. Data for 2004-20 were obtained from individual and household level survey microdata (available for Mexico and Peru only), and tabulated data from the National Statistical Committee of Belarus and the World Bank Health Equity and Financial Protection Indicator database (for Viet Nam and Russia). We compared 2020 CHE with the CHE predicted from historical trends using an ensemble model. This method was also used to assess drivers of CHE: insurance coverage, OOP expenditure, and consumption expenditure. Interrupted time-series analysis was used to investigate the role of stay-at-home orders in March, 2020 in changes in health-care use and sector (ie, private vs public). In Mexico, CHE increased to 5·6% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5·1-6·2) in 2020, higher than predicted (3·2%, 2·5-4·0). In Belarus, CHE was 13·5% (11·8-15·2) in 2020, also higher than predicted (9·7%, 7·7-11·3). CHE was not different than predicted by past trends in Russia, Peru, and Viet Nam. Between March and April, 2020, health-care visits dropped by 4·6 (2·6-6·5) percentage points in Mexico and by 48·3 (40·6-56·0) percentage points in Peru, and the private share of health-care visits increased by 7·3 (4·3-10·3) percentage points in Mexico and by 20·7 (17·3-24·0) percentage points in Peru. In three of the five countries studied, health systems either did not protect people from the financial risks of health care or did not maintain health-care access in 2020, an indication of health systems failing to maintain basic functions. If the 2020 response to the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated shifts to private health-care use, policies to cover costs in that sector or motivate patients to return to the public sector are needed to maintain financial risk protection. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Sex differences in mortality among children, adolescents, and young people aged 0–24 years: a systematic assessment of national, regional, and global trends from 1990 to 2021

Differences in mortality exist between sexes because of biological, genetic, and social factors. Sex differentials are well documented in children younger than 5 years but have not been systematically examined for ages 5-24 years. We aimed to estimate the sex ratio of mortality from birth to age 24 years and reconstruct trends in sex-specific mortality between 1990 and 2021 for 200 countries, major regions, and the world. We compiled comprehensive databases on the mortality sex ratio (ratio of male to female mortality rates) for individuals aged 0-4 years, 5-14 years, and 15-24 years. The databases contain mortality rates from death registration systems, full birth and sibling histories from surveys, and reports on household deaths in censuses. We modelled the sex ratio of age-specific mortality as a function of the mortality in both sexes using Bayesian hierarchical time-series models. We report the levels and trends of sex ratios and estimate the expected female mortality and excess female mortality rates (the difference between the estimated female mortality and the expected female mortality) to identify countries with outlying sex ratios. Globally, the mortality sex ratio was 1·13 (ie, boys were more likely to die than girls of the same age) for ages 0-4 years (90% uncertainty interval 1·11 to 1·15) in 2021. This ratio increased with age to 1·16 (1·12 to 1·20) for 5-14 years, reaching 1·65 for 15-24 years (1·52 to 1·75). In all age groups, the global sex ratio of mortality increased between 1990 and 2021, driven by faster declines in female mortality. In 2021, the probability of a newborn male reaching age 25 years was 94·1% (93·7 to 94·4), compared with 95·1% for a newborn female (94·7 to 95·3). We found a disadvantage of females versus males (compared with countries with similar total mortality) in 2021 in five countries for ages 0-4 years (Algeria, Bangladesh, Egypt, India, and Iran), one country (Suriname) for ages 5-14 years, and 13 countries for ages 15-24 years (including Bangladesh and India). We found the reverse pattern (disadvantage of males vs females compared with countries of similar total mortality) in one country in ages 0-4 years (Vietnam) and eight countries in ages 15-24 years (including Brazil and Mexico). Globally, the number of excess female deaths from birth to age 24 years was 86 563 (-6059 to 164 000) in 2021, down from 544 636 (453 982 to 633 265) in 1990. The global sex ratio of mortality for all age groups in the first 25 years of life increased between 1990 and 2021. Targeted interventions should focus on countries with outlying sex ratios of mortality to reduce disparities due to discrimination in health care, nutrition, and violence. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development, and King Abdullah University of Science and Technology.