Technological Uncertainty Research Articles

Urban Households’ Investment Behaviour Towards Home Appliances in India: Do Gender and Neighbourhood Effect Matter?

This study assesses the influence of women’s bargaining power and the peer or neighbourhood effect on urban households’ investment behaviour towards home appliances, specifically refrigerators and air conditioners. The impact of women’s bargaining power has been demonstrated in different domains, including household expenditure/investment decisions, technology and clean fuel adoption, children’s education, and so on. Since women primarily operate household appliances, for example, refrigerators, we argue that the former could impact investment decisions related to appliances. Additionally, we study the neighbourhood effect as the acquisition and choice of appliances, vehicles, and new technologies and the reduction of household energy consumption heavily rely on information from the neighbours. This communication dynamic reduces perceived social and technological uncertainties related to the product. Therefore, we hypothesise that household appliance ownership accelerates when there is increased use in the neighbourhood. Analysis based on data from the Indian Human Development Survey (IHDS, 2005 & 2012) shows that women’s education and property ownership are positively related to refrigerator and air conditioner ownership. The neighbourhood effects on the same have also been found to be positive and significant. This study, in sum, provides new insights into the factors that influence urban households’ investment behaviour towards appliances, and in terms of policy implications, these findings could be useful in the promotion of energy-efficient home appliances as we are aiming for net zero emission in the decades to come.

Oreste Besson Rank and Certainty Factor for Digital Business Investment Decisions

This study analyzes investment decision making in digital business using the Oreste Besson Rank and Certainty Factor methods. A mixed qualitative and quantitative approach is used to understand the qualitative factors that influence investment decisions and measure the effectiveness of analytical methods. The results of the qualitative analysis of the in-depth interviews highlight key factors: brand reputation (42% response), technology adaptability (35% response), and long-term growth potential (23% response). Uncertainty of technology and market changes (75% of respondents) affects investment strategy. Quantitative analysis uses the Decision Support System (SPK) and Besson-Rank methods to generate investment alternatives. Digital Properties rank the best, with Besson-Rank weighting the criteria score for a more in-depth look. The Certainty Factor (CF) method assesses investment options based on available data, with E-commerce Growth having the highest score, indicating a higher priority. The internal noise test confirms the Oreste Besson Rank and Certainty Factor methods as reliable tools, providing investment ratings and risk assessments consistent with simulated data. The results of this study underscore the importance of reputation, technology adaptability, and growth potential in digital business investment decisions. The Oreste Besson Rank and Certainty Factor methods are effective in providing accurate guidance. This research provides deeper insight into investment decision-making in a dynamic digital business and proposes recommendations for optimizing this analytical method in the face of market changes.

The potential of renewable electricity in isolated grids: The case of Israel in 2050

Power generation is one of the main resources for emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases. Thus, emissions can be seriously regulated if the electricity sector could be driven by renewables. Of special interest are cases with an isolated grid such as Israel, with extensive work already carried out in the past on the evaluation of renewable electricity in this country. Yet, it appears that the methods adopted previously were not rigorous enough to reflect the true potential. The current work is an attempt to deal with this challenge by implementing comprehensive input data collection, as well as detailed performance and energy management modeling. The main goal of the current study is to evaluate the energy mix, together with the required storage capacity, that would allow maximum penetration of renewables into the Israeli grid in 2050. The total electric demand in 2050 is evaluated as 183.3 TWh. The resources of interest are fossils, solar energy (both photovoltaics and agrivoltaics), onshore and offshore wind, sea waves, and organic waste. The total installed power from renewables is evaluated as 180.6 GW. The energy storage capacity is mostly relying on the technology of Vehicle to Grid (V2G), and with the help of additional stationary batteries and several pumped hydroelectric plants, the total capacity is estimated as 216 GWh. However, owing to the uncertainty in future storage technologies, larger capacities are considered as well. The performance model (PM) used in the analysis of solar and wind plants is the System Advisor Model (SAM). To match the electric generation and demand, an energy management system (EMS) model was developed. The EMS is controlling the hourly fossil power to maximize the renewable share on an annual basis while ensuring full supply to consumers (no power outage). Economic evaluation is excluded in the current analysis. It was obtained that renewables share between 80.1% and 99.5% may be achieved, depending on the scenario. The annual energy dumping is between 4.9% and 46.1% and the fossil plants’ annual capacity factor is between 0.4% and 13.6%.

Cross-border M&As and Growth Option Value: Technological Diversity, Uncertainty and Correlation

Cross-border M&As and Growth Option Value: Technological Diversity, Uncertainty and Correlation

Managing Technology Uncertainty: Proof-of-Concept for Digital Transformation Projects

Managing Technology Uncertainty: Proof-of-Concept for Digital Transformation Projects

The effect of SMEs’ dynamic capability on operational capabilities and organisational agility

Purpose: This study sets out to empirically investigate the effect of small and medium-sized enterprises’ (SMEs) dynamic capability on operational capabilities, organisational agility and performance while assessing the moderating role of environmental uncertainty.Design/methodology/approach: Data were gathered from 288 company representatives from the South Korean provinces of Daegu and Gyeongbuk. Companies in Daegu and Gyeongbuk are purposively sampled as research subjects and classified as manufacturing and/or distribution, and other industries, with a questionnaire administered to firm representatives and employees. The proposed hypotheses are tested using structural equations modelling.Findings/results: The study finds that dynamic capability has a significant positive effect on marketing capability, managerial capability, and technical capability, respectively. The study also discovers that marketing capability positively affects organisational agility. Furthermore, the findings show that technical capability influences organisational agility, which in turn affects innovation capability positively. The study also reveals that technological uncertainty moderates the relationship between dynamic capability and technical capability.Practical implications: The outcome of this study implies that rather than reducing the scale or scope of support projects, the technical and management levels should be prepared in the institutional system so that disabled companies can acquire and strengthen more diverse capabilities and resources.Originality/value: The research emphasises the significance of an organisation’s response to the external environment being agile, as customer needs and competitors’ products and services change frequently. It also reveals that marketing capability is a vital variable that influences organisational agility, regardless of business classification.

Best foot forward? The importance of contractual governance mechanisms for innovation from alliances

This paper examines the impact of alliance partners' ex ante governance choices related to knowledge exchange on ex post innovative outcomes. Building on insights from alliance governance, knowledge-based view, and the contracting literatures, the paper argues that partners’ ex ante contractual commitments signal their strategic intent towards collaboration that will consequently influence their knowledge exchanges during the alliance. It is hypothesized that a contractual commitment to transfer tacit knowledge and the formation of a joint committee are conducive to the generation of innovative outcomes from the alliance. In addition, a contingency perspective is developed and it is hypothesized that the efficacy of these mechanisms varies depending on the extent of co-development of R&D activities and the technological uncertainty of the alliance. The hypotheses are empirically examined using patenting activity from biopharmaceutical alliances in the United States.

Stress, Affective Responses, and Coping Mechanisms of Canadian University Students Toward Online Learning During the COVID-19 Lockdown

ABSTRACT This study investigated the sources of stress, affective responses, and coping mechanisms among Canadian university students toward online learning during the COVID-19 lockdown. Based on a survey of 430 undergraduate and graduate students at a Canadian University in Ontario, Canada, it was found that a leading source of student stress is technology unreliability, followed closely by academic experience. The most frequent affective response is disaffection, particularly passive disengagement, as well as feeling distracted and unfocused. Problem-focused coping, especially seeking university help and self-organization, was the dominant approach followed by students in dealing with and trying to overcome the challenges associated with online learning. Institutional managers should dedicate resources to support online services, to offer student training in self-organization techniques, and to invest in reliable learning management systems. Instructors should clearly communicate their academic expectations and avoid ambiguity, encourage students to contact them directly, design course FAQ sections, and allocate extra time to accommodate unexpected technical glitches. Students should embrace the notion of technology unreliability, ambiguity, uncertainty, and other unexpected issues. It is their responsibility to arrange a productive learning environment at home, organize themselves, draw a line between school and home tasks, and secure formal or informal support if needed.

The project manager as chameleon? Changing project manager roles with technological uncertainty

The project manager as chameleon? Changing project manager roles with technological uncertainty

Effect of Initial Materials and Uncertainty of Production Technology on the Structure and Mechanical Properties of a Thermosetting Polymer

Effect of Initial Materials and Uncertainty of Production Technology on the Structure and Mechanical Properties of a Thermosetting Polymer

Not all innovation is prioritized: economic policy uncertainty, industry environmental, and firms' relative exploitative innovation emphasis

PurposeEconomic policy uncertainty has increased around the world since the financial crisis of 2007–2008. While scholars have devoted a lot of time and energy to investigating the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on firm innovation, they have not reached consistent research conclusions. This study aimed to clarify the above research differences by exploring the impact of EPU on firms' relative exploitative innovation emphasis, so as to provide a more comprehensive and granular understanding of the relationship between EPU and firm innovation.Design/methodology/approachThis study obtained 17,165 firm-year data points from 3,107 listed companies in China. It analyzed the above data with a fixed effects model. In addition, this study used an instrumental variables method to solve potential endogeneity problems.FindingsBased on real options theory and contingency theory, the authors proposed and found that EPU has a significant positive effect on relative exploitative innovation emphasis. In addition, the authors proposed and found that this effect is more pronounced in industries with high technological uncertainty, low competitive intensity, and low state monopolization.Originality/valueThis study is the first to explore why firms prefer exploitative innovation over exploratory innovation from the perspective of EPU. In doing so, this study expands and enriches the EPU literature and the innovation literature. Furthermore, by introducing the moderating role of industry environment, this study deepens the authors' understanding of how complex interactions between industry and institutional environments work together to shape firm strategic choices, and especially firm innovation. Finally, the conclusions of this study have important practical implications for shareholders to take measures to balance exploitative innovation and exploratory innovation to achieve better development.

Quantitative analysis of net-zero transition pathways and synergies in China's iron and steel industry

Steel is a critical input to infrastructures required for the net-zero transition. Representing over 50% of global production and 15% of nationwide CO2 emissions, China's iron and steel industry (CISI) will play a pivotal role towards achieving its net-zero commitment. This study investigates a series of decarbonization pathways and their synergies in CISI using a bottom-up model. Policy and technology uncertainties are incorporated in decarbonization pathways through scenario and uncertainty analysis. Results show that: (1) Uncertainties have profound impacts on the time and technology mix required to achieve net-zero emissions. Uncertainty scenarios narrow the potential of emerging decarbonization measures, causing significant delays in reaching the net-zero target, as it takes on average an additional 5 years to achieve the same emission reductions compared to deterministic scenarios. Moreover, sensitivity analysis reveals that steel output and technology penetration rates are critical uncertainty parameters since slight perturbations from their nominal values significantly affect the decarbonization potential; (2) Switching to Scrap-electric arc furnace production and increasing the share of renewables in electrification can reduce emissions by 52% in 2060. Promoting material efficiency, energy efficiency, natural gas, and bioenergy are key near-term measures since they account for 37% of emission reduction. The application of CCUS and hydrogen is indispensable in the long run as they further reduce emissions by 11%; (3) Achieving the net-zero target reduces energy intensity by 34%, while pollutant emission intensities drop by 87–96%. Therefore, policymakers can resort to synergies of deep decarbonization to simultaneously realize energy conservation and pollution reduction targets.

The effects of digital transformation on supply chain resilience: a moderated and mediated model

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the impact of digital transformation on supply chain resilience. Additionally, the paper examines the mediating effect of supply chain process integration as well as the moderating effect of environmental uncertainty in the relationship between digital transformation and supply chain resilience.Design/methodology/approachDrawing on digital empowerment theory, this study proposes a theoretical model. Using survey data collected from 216 enterprises in China, the study employs structural equation modeling to validate the theoretical model.FindingsThe results reveal that digital transformation has a significant impact on supply chain resilience. Three dimensions of supply chain process integration, namely, information flow integration, physical flow integration, and financial flow integration mediate the relationship between digital transformation and supply chain resilience. In addition, environmental uncertainty including market uncertainty and technology uncertainty positively moderates the relationship between digital transformation and supply chain resilience.Originality/valueFirst, this paper provides empirical evidence on both the direct and indirect effects of digital transformation on supply chain resilience. Second, this paper enriches the understanding of how supply chain integration impacts supply chain resilience in the digital transformation era by adopting a more granular perspective of process integration rather than broad external and internal integrations. Furthermore, this paper extends the knowledge of the role of external environment in digital transformation and supply chain risk management by examining the moderating effects of market uncertainty and technology uncertainty.

KETIDAKPASTIAN GOJEK DALAM DISKURSUS MASYARAKAT RESIKO

Modern society is faced with risks inherent in its life. This risk comes from the technological uncertainty developments, especially in transportation modes. Gojek be a solution to the uncertainty several aspects by conventional transportation modes. This study uses a phenomenological approach, which places phenomena from the actors point of view and uses the risk society theory introduced by Ulrich Beck as an analytical tool. The concept used is reflective modernity and the boomerang effect that drivers and customers face respectively as users of the Gojek application. Informants are Gojek users consisting of customers as well as drivers. This research used interview, observation, and documentation techniques as primary data, while the secondary data used literature study techniques. Based on the results, it was found that several certainty factors were obtained by Gojek customers, including time, convenience, cost and security. This factor is referred to 'reflective modernity', where this factor becomes a reflection on the uncertainty of conventional transportation. However, for the record, security is also a risk if the goods ordered through Gojek are taken away by the driver. On the other hand, Gojek drivers get uncertainty risk factors, such as fictitious orders, and service discrepancies with customer ratings. This condition is referred to 'boomerang effect' where the risk returns to the main actor. As a solution, the company provides a feature to deal with fictitious orders and a rating feature by users.

Ketidakpastian Gojek Dalam Diskursus Masyarakat Resiko

Modern society is faced with risks inherent in its life. This risk comes from the technological uncertainty developments, especially in transportation modes. Gojek be a solution to the uncertainty several aspects by conventional transportation modes. This study uses a phenomenological approach, which places phenomena from the actors point of view and uses the risk society theory introduced by Ulrich Beck as an analytical tool. The concept used is reflective modernity and the boomerang effect that drivers and customers face respectively as users of the Gojek application. Informants are Gojek users consisting of customers as well as drivers. This research used interview, observation, and documentation techniques as primary data, while the secondary data used literature study techniques. Based on the results, it was found that several certainty factors were obtained by Gojek customers, including time, convenience, cost and security. This factor is referred to 'reflective modernity', where this factor becomes a reflection on the uncertainty of conventional transportation. However, for the record, security is also a risk if the goods ordered through Gojek are taken away by the driver. On the other hand, Gojek drivers get uncertainty risk factors, such as fictitious orders, and service discrepancies with customer ratings. This condition is referred to 'boomerang effect' where the risk returns to the main actor. As a solution, the company provides a feature to deal with fictitious orders and a rating feature by users.

Public procurement for innovation: Lessons and challenges of a COVID-19 vaccine contract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, which triggered a worldwide emergency call to pursue new drugs and devices to treat and cure the disease, vaccines began to be developed mid-2020, as a promising weapon and shield. Fiocruz, a Brazilian government science and technology institute, signed a public procurement for innovation contract with the foreign pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca to purchase, at that time, vaccines still under development. It was the first public procurement for innovation contract in the Brazilian public health system (SUS). This paper analyzes how the Brazilian public procurement contracts for the COVID-19 vaccine dealt with technology and institutional risks and uncertainties. It also aims to describe how such agreements (and the legal apparatus behind them) relate to the Brazilian system of innovation and to the theoretical approach of contracting for innovation. A key question is: how does the public procurement for innovation vaccine contract signed by Fiocruz deal with the intrinsic nature of uncertainty that characterizes innovation, and what lessons and challenges can be drawn?

Regulating scientific and technological uncertainty: The precautionary principle in the context of human genomics and AI.

Considered in isolation, the ethical and societal challenges posed by genomics and artificial intelligence (AI) are profound and include issues relating to autonomy, privacy, equality, bias, discrimination, and the abuse of power, amongst others. When these two technologies are combined, the ethical, legal and societal issues increase substantially, become much more complex, and can be scaled enormously, which increases the impact. Adding to these complexities, both genomics and AI-enabled technologies are rife with scientific and technological uncertainties, which makes the regulation of these technologies not only challenging in itself, but also creates legal uncertainties. In science, the precautionary principle has been used globally to govern uncertainty, with the specific aim to prevent irreversible harm to human beings. The regulation of uncertainties in AI-enabled technologies is based on risk as set out in the AI Regulation that was recently proposed by the European Commission. However, when genomics and artificial intelligence are combined, not only do uncertainties double, but the current regulation of such uncertainties towards the safe use thereof for humans seems contradictory, considering the different approaches followed by science and technology in this regard. In this article, I explore the regulation of both scientific and technological uncertainties and argue that the application of the precautionary principle in the context of human genomics and AI seems to be the most effective way to regulate the uncertainties brought about by the combination of these two technologies.

Dealing with deep uncertainty in the energy transition: What we can learn from the electricity and transportation sectors

The energy transition requires substantial investments. However, deep uncertainty – a situation where probabilities of outcomes and possibly the outcomes themselves are unknown – can deter investment in the energy transition. This is demonstrated based on three cases covering the sectors power generation and transportation: investment in (i) a coal-fired power plant, (ii) offshore wind, and (iii) electric vehicles. These cases illustrate key issues related to deep uncertainty: The interplay of multiple sources of uncertainty within highly complex investments can lead to deep uncertainty. Further, deep uncertainty related to policy and technologies delays and distorts investment decision-making. Based on the findings from the cases, we derive recommendations for policymakers. In the case of technology uncertainties, the policymaker can widely support technology alternatives or offer risk mitigating instruments to reduce firms’ costs of making the wrong decision. Supporting highly uncertain early-stage investments yields additional social benefits by reducing uncertainty for future investments due to learning effects. Overall, policymakers need to signal credible long-term commitment to the energy transition, particularly in those cases, where policy itself is a major source of uncertainty for firms and investors.

Application of blockchain in enterprise financing: literature review and knowledge framework

PurposeIn recent years, the application of blockchain in enterprise financing has become a hot topic in academic research. This study aims to review the existing literature, construct a knowledge framework for this research topic and propose an agenda for future research.Design/methodology/approachBased on 181 papers published from 2016 to 2020 in core journal databases in China and abroad, this study used bibliometric tools to identify and analyze an overview of literature publications, research hotspot trends and research theme clustering. This study also qualitatively analyzes literature from the dimensions of enabling mechanisms, multitechnology synergy, challenges, theoretical perspectives and research methods.FindingsThis study presents the research progress of blockchain applications in direct financing, bank credit, supply chain finance and other financing modes and analyzes the similarities and differences between domestic and international literature. This study also reveals enabling mechanisms of blockchain in enterprise financing, reflected as information quality improvement (data elements), trust mechanism innovation (business process) and collaboration structure enhancement (network structure). The study found several challenges (e.g. technological uncertainty, data security and organizational change) and trends (e.g. integrated innovation of multiple digital technologies). Additionally, the authors identified several gaps and opportunities for further research.Research limitations/implicationsThis study adopts a strict strategy of selecting search terms when retrieving the literature, leading to the exclusion of certain papers on this topic.Practical implicationsThis study provides valuable insights into the innovative development of enterprise financing modes enabled by blockchain and emphasizes that managers should clarify the applicable boundaries and necessary conditions of blockchain innovation in different financing scenarios to match technological innovation with industrial expectations.Originality/valueThis study constructs a knowledge framework on this topic based on a comprehensive review of existing research and proposes several important issues for future research based on the identified research gaps.

Move Fast and Break Things? The Contingent Nature of Product Acceleration in Nascent Markets

Acceleration allows firms to lock in early success upon entering a nascent market, but whether it enables firms to sustain competitive advantage after the entry is unclear. Using a granular data set on the U.S. LED lightbulb market 2010–2017, we apply an abductive approach to examine the relationship between postentry product acceleration and market acceptance. We find that, although acceleration is slightly more beneficial for firms that have accumulated greater pioneering experience, incumbents with more recognizable brands are able to achieve even greater market acceptance by slowing down their product iterations. Meanwhile, deceleration seems to be a better strategy among firms striving to build legitimacy via regulatory engagement, whereas acceleration could be more beneficial for firms competing in subproduct markets with greater technological uncertainties. We contribute to the nascent market literature by showing that the extent to which firms gain market acceptance through postentry product acceleration hinges on their abilities to assess, learn from, and shape both market and nonmarket stakeholders. Funding: This research is supported by grants from the Innovation, Entrepreneurship, and Technology Research Grant provided by Cornell University’s Johnson College of Business and Daigle Labs at the University of Connecticut, School of Business. Supplemental Material: The online appendices are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/stsc.2023.0192 .