Effect Of Uncertainty Research Articles

Accounting Risks in the Subjects of Business Systems

The study of economic activity of subjects of business systems shows that the emergence of risk is a consequence of uncertainty, which is characteristic manifests itself in the formation of the accounting (financial) statements. Today, due to the financial crisis, the relevance of financial statements is constantly increasing. Accounting is the main data base, which accurately reflect the financial condition of the subject and allows you to make effective economic decisions. All of the economic risks it is necessary to identify assess and take into accounting because the lack of information may become a viable source of losses and will distort the reporting of data on financial results. Today the Russian economies have different risks, but their accounting is missing. This leads to a direct distortion of accounting data and subsequently can lead to bankruptcy. Not currently developed methods for the assessment of the accounting risk through the mechanism of redundancy. It is necessary to reconsider the practice of ignoring actual accounting risks in accounting. In this regard, there is a need to study accounting risks, classification, valuation, accounting as its objects. The urgency of the problems and determined the research topic. In the article the author's technique of creating information accounting software accounting risks commercial organizations, as well as the developed form of working documents to reflect the obtained results with the purpose of organization of analytical and synthetic accounting. The study aims to develop a methodology for the inclusion in the financial statements of commercial entities probable losses that are associated with the effects of accounting risks, as well as to create account registers, which will improve the reliability of data on financial reserves, information, and control over its use. Overall results of the study are upgrading internal system of accounting organization risks.

Should a Multinational Firm Place Part of its Supply Chain in a Tax Haven?: Strategies to Enable International Tax Arbitrage

What motivates the geographic footprint of the supply chains that multinational firms (MNFs) deploy? Traditional prescriptive research in the operations and supply chain management literature tends to recommend locations primarily based on differentials in production costs and the ramifications of physical distance. The role of taxation has received much less attention.MNFs that strategically position parts of their supply chains in low-tax locations can allocate the profits across the different pieces of the firm so as to improve post-tax profits. For the profit allocation to be defensible to tax authorities, the operations in tax havens must possess real decision authority and bear meaningful risks such as the consequences of uncertainty in market demand. Generally speaking, the greater the transfer of risk and control, the larger the allowable allocation of profit. These transfers may also create inefficiencies due to misalignment of business goals and attitudes towards risk. We model these tradeoffs in the context of placing in a low-tax region a subsidiary that oversees product distribution (as a Commissionaire, Limited-Risk Distributor, or Fully-Fledged Distributor). Our analysis ultimately informs the questions of motive for the MNF: whether and when to use these tax-aware supply chain strategies.

The effect of climate policy on the impacts of climate change on river flows in the UK

Summary This paper compares the effects of two indicative climate mitigation policies on river flows in six catchments in the UK with two scenarios representing un-mitigated emissions. It considers the consequences of uncertainty in both the pattern of catchment climate change as represented by different climate models and hydrological model parameterisation on the effects of mitigation policy. Mitigation policy has little effect on estimated flow magnitudes in 2030. By 2050 a mitigation policy which achieves a 2 °C temperature rise target reduces impacts on low flows by 20–25% compared to a business-as-usual emissions scenario which increases temperatures by 4 °C by the end of the 21st century, but this is small compared to the range in impacts between different climate model scenarios. However, the analysis also demonstrates that an early peak in emissions would reduce impacts by 40–60% by 2080 (compared with the 4 °C pathway), easing the adaptation challenge over the long term, and can delay by several decades the impacts that would be experienced from around 2050 in the absence of policy. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided varies between climate model patterns and, to a lesser extent, hydrological model parameterisations, due to variations in the projected shape of the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response.

A Compreensão do Princípio da Incerteza e suas Implicações no Processo de Educação Escolar

This research aims at understanding the meaning of the uncertainty principle and its implications on the dimension of school knowledge based on the complexity theory. More specifically, we aimed at investigating the meaning attributed by Morin to the uncertainty principle when defining it as a black hole and a gap in education. To do so, it is essential to analyze, from its origin, the paths that point to the genesis, the nature and the consequences of uncertainty. The movements of order and disorder are inherent variables to any social phenomenon and to nature itself, thus causing uncertainty. Individuals have difficulty understanding the uncertainty that flows from movement and disorder as a strength-property inherent to the natural and social phenomena, and due to not understanding such dimension, their tendency is to ignore or deny it. A complex understanding of the real world that reveals the uncertainty produces profound consequences to the epistemological field and, consequently, to the whole process of school education

Comparing the environmental impacts of alternative protein crops in poultry diets: The consequences of uncertainty

The statistical significance of the effects of including different protein sources in poultry diets on the environmental impacts Global Warming Potential (GWP), Eutrophication Potential (EP) and Acidification Potential (AP) of typical UK broiler meat and egg production systems was quantified using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method combined with an uncertainty analysis. The broiler and layer diets compared in the study were either standard soya-based, or alternative diets based on European-grown protein crops, including field beans, field peas, sunflower meal and whole rapeseed. Different methods for accounting for land use change (LUC) in feed crop production were applied, including (1) a weighted average of “new” and “mature” agricultural land used for soya production (“best estimate” scenario), (2) assuming no LUC in the production of soya used in these diets (“sustainable soya” scenario) and (3) including indirect LUC for all arable crop production (“top-down” scenario). Monte Carlo simulations were used to quantify uncertainties in predicted impacts and to perform statistical comparisons between the effects of different diet compositions. The results showed that when included at relatively high levels in the diets (10–30% by mass), peas, beans and rapeseed could slightly reduce the simulated mean value of GWP (up to 12%) of broiler meat and egg production. However, when uncertainties in the data were taken into account, these reductions were not statistically significant. Furthermore, the reduction in GWP strongly depended on the method of LUC accounting applied in the analysis. With the “sustainable soya” and “top-down” scenarios, only small, non-significant differences between the different diets were found. In the case of EP, only small non-significant changes could be achieved with the alternative protein sources. For AP, a significant reduction of more than 20% could be achieved if the crude protein content of the broiler diet was reduced by using peas in combination with pure amino acids. This study demonstrates the importance of a holistic approach, coupled with Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis, to evaluate the environmental impacts of livestock systems. It takes into account the environmental burdens related, for example, to feed production and transport and differences in emissions from housing and the end use of the manure. Furthermore, due to the systematic uncertainty analysis, the statistical significance of the effects of different feeding scenarios can now be evaluated.

Mortality salience and uncertainty: Similar effects but different processes?

AbstractThree experimental studies investigated whether death‐thoughts avoidance as a consequence of mortality salience and need for certainty as a consequence of uncertainty are two different motivational states. The results suggest that although death‐thought avoidance and need for certainty are different constructs, they share a great deal of variance (anxiety plays a pivotal mediational role in both). However, whereas the impact of uncertainty on negative attitudes towards an out‐group with different worldviews (Arabs) was mediated only by anxiety (measured retrospectively), the effect of mortality salience was mediated by both retrospective anxiety and death‐thought accessibility. These findings imply that similar effects that have been obtained by these two manipulations are, at least partly, the result of different processes. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risk Management Instruments, Strategies and Their Impact on Project Success

Risk is an inseparable event or occurrence to any project and it is a consequence of uncertainties and unknowns associated with the project and its execution. Past research studies generally focused on types of risks and risk management processes. This research effort, using a survey questionnaire, is an attempt to understand types of specific risk mitigation approaches that are commonly employed and their dependency with the type of an organization. This research effort also addressed relation between risk mitigation strategy of an organization and individual project manager’s propensity to risk. Research results show that project risk management plan and it development is likely to be influenced by cost and time aspects of a project but not on the project scope. Further, results revealed that many organizations depend on contingency budget rather than a formalized risk management plan.

EP-1305: Management of the interruptions in the conventional treatment of prostate cancer upon a database analysis

Purpose/Objective: The delivery of high quality stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) and stereotactic radiotherapy (SRT) treatments requires knowledge of the position of the isocentre to sub millimetre accuracy. The deviation between the radiation and mechanical isocentres must be less than 1 mm. The use of an add-on micromultileaf collimator (μMLC) in SRS and SRT is an additional challenge to the anticipated high-level geometric and dosimetric accuracy of the treatment. The aim of this work was to quantify the gantry excursions during rotation with and without an add-on μMLC attached to the gantry head. In addition, the shift in the position of the isocenter and its correlation to the kV beam centre of the cone-beam CT system was included in the study. Materials and Methods: The quantification of the gantry rotational performance was done using a pointer supported by an inhouse made rigid holder attached to the gantry head. The pointer positions were measured using a digital theodolite. The displacement of the isocentre due to an add-on μMLC of 50 kg was investigated. In case of the pointer measurement the μMLC was simulated by weights attached to the gantry head. A method of least squares was applied to determine the position and displacement of the mechanical isocentre. Additionally, the displacement of the radiation isocentre was measured using a Winston-Lutz phantom and the electronic portal image device (EPID) system. These measurements were based on eight MV photon beams irradiated onto the ball from the four cardinal angles and two opposed collimator angles. The measurements and analysis of the data were carried out automatically using software delivered by the manufacturer. Results: The displacement of the mechanical isocentre caused by a 50 kg heavy μMLC was found to be (-0.01±0.06, -0.10±0.03, -0.26±0.05) mm in lateral, longitudinal and vertical direction, respectively. Similarly, the displacement of the radiation isocentre was found to be (0.00±0.03, -0.08±0.06, -0.32±0.02) mm. Good agreement was found between the displacement of the two isocentres. A displacement of the kV cone-beam CT beam centre due to the attached weight of 50 kg could not be detected. By comparing the CW and CCW data the presence of the effect of backlash appears. The effect of backlash was found to be < 0.14 mm and < 0.10 mm in the lateral and vertical direction, respectively. Conclusions: General characteristics of the gantry arm excursions and displacements caused by an add-on μMLC have been reported. A 50 kg heavy add-on μMLC results in an isocentre displacement downward of 0.26 to 0.32 mm. We recommend that the beam centre of the kV cone-beam CT image system should be matched to the isocentre related to the weight of the μMLC. Consequently, the imperfections in isocentre localizations are transferred to the conventional radiotherapy where the clinical consequences of uncertainties in the sub millimetre regime are negligible.

Teaching of manual clinical skills in podiatry: theory and recommendations

It is the expectation of employers, regulatory bodies and the public, that graduating podiatrists sufficiently meet certain minimum competencies for that profession, including those for manual skills. However, teaching and evaluation methods seem to be inconsistent between countries, institutions and programs. This may be the consequence of uncertainty regarding the most effective method of teaching such skills. A review of available literature pertaining to psychomotor teaching across a range of health professions was undertaken. As a result of this broad review we present the available evidence and make recommendations pertaining to the teaching of psychomotor skills within the podiatry profession and relate it to current methods. Traditional methods of teaching providing explicit content and appropriate demonstration are still useful. Learning may be promoted in a closed environment on low fidelity models with clear and immediate feedback. Further practice can occur over time (intermittent practice) with possible use of mental practice in between. The task can gradually increase in complexity such as moving from a model to work in a clinical setting such as a university clinic on real patients, as appropriate. Further detail regarding these methods will be provided. This review will support some current practices in clinical teaching and make further recommendations with respect to current evidence.

Dynamic Based SMC of Nonholonomic Mobile Robots

The aim of the paper is trajectory tracking control of a non-holonomic mobile robot whose centroid doesn’t coincide to its rotation center in the middle of connecting axle of driving wheels. The nonholonomic dynamic model of the Wheeled Mobile Robot (WMR) is developed in global Cartesian coordinates where the WMR’s forward and angular velocities are used as internal state variables. In order to include the effects of parameter uncertainties, measurement noises and other anomalies in the WMR system, a bounded perturbation vector is embedded to the developed dynamical model. Through defining the control inputs by computed torque method, a Dynamic Sliding Mode Controller (DSMC) is proposed to stabilize the sliding surfaces. Based on the proposed robust control system, the effect of uncertainties and noises in the robot performance is attenuated. By use of the WMR forward and angular velocities as internal state variables in the dynamic modeling, the developed model is relatively simple and mainly independent of the robot states. This makes the dynamical model more robust against measurement errors. Design of the DSMC based on such a model leads to perfect trajectory tracking and compensation for initial off-tracks even in the presence of disturbances and modeling uncertainties.

Uncertainties in the Item Parameter Estimates and Robust Automated Test Assembly

Item response theory parameters have to be estimated, and because of the estimation process, they do have uncertainty in them. In most large-scale testing programs, the parameters are stored in item banks, and automated test assembly algorithms are applied to assemble operational test forms. These algorithms treat item parameters as fixed values, and uncertainty is not taken into account. As a consequence, resulting tests might be off target or less informative than expected. In this article, the process of parameter estimation is described to provide insight into the causes of uncertainty in the item parameters. The consequences of uncertainty are studied. Besides, an alternative automated test assembly algorithm is presented that is robust against uncertainties in the data. Several numerical examples demonstrate the performance of the robust test assembly algorithm, and illustrate the consequences of not taking this uncertainty into account. Finally, some recommendations about the use of robust test assembly and some directions for further research are given.

Correlates and consequences of uncertainty in career aspirations: Gender differences among adolescents in England

Young people today face a great deal of uncertainty regarding their career opportunities, yet relatively little information is known about the correlates and consequences of uncertain aspirations. Drawing upon the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE) born in 1989/90, this study examined a pathway model investigating whether uncertain career aspirations and other associated variables mediate the link between socioeconomic status and prior achievement and later educational outcomes. Gender differences were also examined. Findings indicate that adolescents who had lower prior achievement and were from lower socioeconomic backgrounds were more likely to have uncertainty in their career aspirations. The hypothesized model was supported to some extent, indicating that uncertain career aspirations and other associated variables were significant mediators. Unexpectedly, adolescents with uncertain career aspirations had higher academic performance at age 16 and a greater likelihood of educational enrollment at age 18 compared to those with high, certain aspirations, when parental educational expectations, school motivation, perceived academic ability and useful career advice were taken into account, suggesting that these young people may benefit from an extended period of moratorium in their career choice.

Statistical methods for assessing and analysing the building performance in respect to the future climate

Global warming and its effects on climate are of great concern. Climate change can affect buildings in different ways. Increased structural loads from wind and water, changes in energy need and decreased moisture durability of materials are some examples of the consequences. Future climate conditions are simulated by global climate models (GCMs). Downscaling by regional climate models (RCMs) provides weather data with suitable temporal and spatial resolutions for direct use in building simulations.There are two major challenges when the future climate data are used in building simulations. The first is to handle and analyse the huge amount of data. The second challenge is to assess the uncertainties in building simulations as a consequence of uncertainties in the future climate data. In this paper two statistical methods, which have been adopted from climatology, are introduced. Applications of the methods are illustrated by looking into two uncertainty factors of the future climate; operating RCMs at different spatial resolutions and with boundary data from different GCMs. The Ferro hypothesis is introduced as a nonparametric method for comparing data at different spatial resolutions. The method is quick and subtle enough to make the comparison. The parametric method of decomposition of variabilities is described and its application in data assessment is shown by considering RCM data forced by different GCMs. The method enables to study data and its variations in different time scales. It provides a useful summary about data and its variations which makes the comparison between several data sets easier.

Why are lotteries valued less? Multiple tests of a direct risk-aversion mechanism

AbstractRecent studies have identified the uncertainty effect (UE), whereby risky prospects (e.g., a binary lottery that offers either a $50 or $100 gift certificate) are valued less than their worst possible outcome (a $50 certificate). This effect has been proposed to result from “direct risk-aversion” which posits that the mere uncertainty of a lottery directly decreases its value. However, this effect may also be driven by the potential disappointment inherent in not receiving the better of the two outcomes (disappointment aversion), or the mere fact that the risky prospect is referred to as a “lottery”. The results of two experiments do not support either of these two alternatives. Specifically, the results of Experiment 1 indicate that the UE is observed even when the values of the two lottery outcomes are similar, or even identical. Experiment 2 further replicates the UE in a context in which the word “lottery” is never used (a company promotional). These results are consistent with a direct risk-aversion mechanism (Gneezy et al., 2006; Simonsohn, 2009) and suggest that the UE obtains across a number of different contexts.

Uncertain aspirations for continuing in education: Antecedents and associated outcomes.

Relatively little is known about adolescents who hold uncertain aspirations, that is, those who do not know what they would like to do in the future regarding their educational or occupational plans. Drawing upon the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England born in 1989-1990, the authors tested a pathway model to investigate the antecedents of uncertain aspirations for continuing in education past compulsory schooling age (i.e., 16 years) and associated later educational outcomes. Gender differences in the pathways are also tested. Findings indicate that the relationship linking socioeconomic status to uncertain aspirations is mediated through parents' educational expectations and the relationship linking academic performance at age 11 to uncertain aspirations is mediated through parents' educational expectations and adolescents' self-perceived ability, which, in turn, predict academic performance at age 16 and educational enrollment at age 18. Gender differences in these processes are also evident: young males not only hold greater uncertainty about continuing in education, the consequences of uncertainty regarding later academic performance are worse for males than females.

Consequences of Uncertainty in Global-Scale Land Cover Maps for Mapping Ecosystem Functions: An Analysis of Pollination Efficiency

Mapping ecosystem services (ESs) is an important tool for providing the quantitative information necessary for the optimal use and protection of ecosystems and biodiversity. A common mapping approach is to apply established empirical relationships to ecosystem property maps. Often, ecosystem properties that provide services to humanity are strongly related to the land use and land cover, where the spatial allocation of the land cover in the landscape is especially important. Land use and land cover maps are, therefore, essential for ES mapping. However, insight into the uncertainties in land cover maps and how these propagate into ES maps is lacking. To analyze the effects of these uncertainties, we mapped pollination efficiency as an example of an ecosystem function, using two continental-scale land cover maps and two global-scale land cover maps. We compared the outputs with maps based on a detailed national-scale map. The ecosystem properties and functions could be mapped using the GLOBCOVER map with a reasonable to good accuracy. In homogeneous landscapes, an even coarser resolution map would suffice. For mapping ESs that depend on the spatial allocation of land cover in the landscape, a classification of satellite images using fractional land cover or mosaic classes is an asset.

Effects of Break Size on Direct Vessel Injection Line Break Accidents of the ATLAS

The direct vessel injection (DVI)-adopted power plant APR1400 considers a DVI line break among the analyzed small-break loss-of-coolant accidents in safety analysis. The first-ever integral effects test database for various DVI line break sizes from 5% to 100% was established with the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute’s Advanced Thermal-Hydraulic Test Loop for Accident Simulation (ATLAS) test facility. This database enhances our physical understanding of the major thermal-hydraulic behaviors of the APR1400 during DVI line break accidents, and it can also be used to examine the prediction capabilities and identify any deficiencies in the existing best-estimate safety analysis codes. Effects of the break size were experimentally investigated, and the best-estimated MARS code was assessed against the experimental database. On the whole, the prediction of the MARS code shows a good agreement with the measured data. However, the code predicted a higher core level than the data just before a loop seal clearing occurs, and it also produced a more rapid decrease in the downcomer water level than the data. These disagreements are the expected consequence of uncertainties in predicting countercurrent flow or condensation phenomena in a downcomer region. The present integral effects test data will be used to support the present conservative safety analysis methodology and to develop a new best-estimate safety analysis methodology on the DVI line break accidents of the APR1400.

Ranking continuous nearest neighbors for uncertain trajectories

This article addresses the problem of performing Nearest Neighbor (NN) queries on uncertain trajectories. The answer to an NN query for certain trajectories is time parameterized due to the continuous nature of the motion. As a consequence of uncertainty, there may be several objects that have a non-zero probability of being a nearest neighbor to a given querying object, and the continuous nature further complicates the semantics of the answer. We capture the impact that the uncertainty of the trajectories has on the semantics of the answer to continuous NN queries and we propose a tree structure for representing the answers, along with efficient algorithms to compute them. We also address the issue of performing NN queries when the motion of the objects is restricted to road networks. Finally, we formally define and show how to efficiently execute several variants of continuous NN queries. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithms yield significant performance improvements when compared with the corresponding naive approaches.

Uncertainty of asymptotic dynamics in bioresource management simulation

Specific features of simulating a system that experiences structural changes in the course of its development are studied by the example of a controlled biological population. The problem of whether nonattracting chaotic sets can arise in dynamic systems with more than one attractor is considered in this context. The formalism of hybrid automata as applied to simulation problems of biological processes is described. Specific features of the phase portrait of the developed dynamic model are characterized by locally disconnected boundaries of basins of attraction of two attractors. The conclusion on limited predictability of the dynamics of some controlled natural systems is made, which is a consequence of uncertainty with respect to the motion of the system towards one of possible stable states.

Shifting the Inflation Target with Uncertainty about the Persistence of Inflation

This paper is an application of the framework developed in Pinkwart (2010a), which allows to analyze changes of the monetary policy regime under uncertain inflation dynamics that alter the steady state properties of the underlying model as well as the stochastic dependencies between model parameters and shocks. Since shifts in the inflation target are examples of such changes, they are at the focus of this paper. First, it considers the consequences of uncertainty about the persistence of inflation to the recent proposal of Blanchard et al. (2010) to raise the inflation target from its conventional value of 2 percent to 4 percent. Second, it interprets the results for the analogous case of a disinflation policy. The findings reveal a remarkable cross-effect: If the inflation target is raised, uncertainty implies a higher neutral monetary policy rate than under certainty equivalence. In contrast, for any reduction of the inflation target, uncertainty supports a lower neutral rate.