Outcome Uncertainty Research Articles

Building cover crop expertise with citizen science in the upper Midwest: supporting farmer innovation in a time of change

The use of cover cropping, as one element in a continuous living cover approach, has the potential to protect water quality and promote soil health, but overall U.S. acreage in cover crops as well as adoption rates remain low. Research on behavioral barriers to cover crop use indicates a lack of information about locally suitable practices and cover crop varieties, as well as the additional management complexity of cover cropping and a high degree of uncertainty in outcomes, especially in areas with shorter growing seasons. This paper describes the development of a citizen science project on cover cropping in Wisconsin designed to (i) generate more geographically distributed data on cover crop performance in the state; and (ii) build understanding of farmer decision-making around growing practices, barriers, and motivations for cover cropping. Citizen science, as it relies on physically distributed members of the public in data generation, is well established as an avenue for generating environmental data. We engage the approach as a tool for also researching influences on individual behavior and identifying potential leverage points for change, especially on-farm innovation and experimentation. I share project findings regarding cover cropping practices and biomass production, results on motivations and influences for cover cropping, as well as participatory approaches to share those results with farmers. This project also offers more general insights into how the citizen science model can be used to expand understanding of decision-making contexts, and to develop responsive outreach efforts that support participants in taking action.

Consuming Contests: The Effect of Outcome Uncertainty on Spectator Attendance in the Australian Football League*

Contests that non‐contestants consume for entertainment are a fixture of economic, cultural and political life. We exploit injury‐induced changes to teams' line‐ups in a professional sports setting to examine whether individuals prefer to consume contests that have more uncertain outcomes. Studying data from the Australian Football League, we use an instrumental variables design to show that a one standard deviation increase in game outcome uncertainty causes, on average, an 11.2 per cent increase in attendance. When presented alongside ordinary least square's estimates, our results suggest that previous studies may heavily underestimate spectators' preferences for evenly balanced contests.

Opinion: The scientific and community-building roles of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) – past, present, and future

Abstract. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) is a coordinating framework, started in 2010, that includes a series of standardized climate model experiments aimed at understanding the physical processes and projected impacts of solar geoengineering. Numerous experiments have been conducted, and numerous more have been proposed as “test-bed” experiments, spanning a variety of geoengineering techniques aimed at modifying the planetary radiation budget: stratospheric aerosol injection, marine cloud brightening, surface albedo modification, cirrus cloud thinning, and sunshade mirrors. To date, more than 100 studies have been published that used results from GeoMIP simulations. Here we provide a critical assessment of GeoMIP and its experiments. We discuss its successes and missed opportunities, for instance in terms of which experiments elicited more interest from the scientific community and which did not, and the potential reasons why that happened. We also discuss the knowledge that GeoMIP has contributed to the field of geoengineering research and climate science as a whole: what have we learned in terms of intermodel differences, robustness of the projected outcomes for specific geoengineering methods, and future areas of model development that would be necessary in the future? We also offer multiple examples of cases where GeoMIP experiments were fundamental for international assessments of climate change. Finally, we provide a series of recommendations, regarding both future experiments and more general activities, with the goal of continuously deepening our understanding of the effects of potential geoengineering approaches and reducing uncertainties in climate outcomes, important for assessing wider impacts on societies and ecosystems. In doing so, we refine the purpose of GeoMIP and outline a series of criteria whereby GeoMIP can best serve its participants, stakeholders, and the broader science community.

On Sports Betting and Uncertainty of Outcome

Abstract: This paper provides an explanation for sports betting that does not appeal to risk-preferring preferences. The strategy is to link betting to the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis, a cornerstone of sports economics. The model relies on the inclusion of a contest utility function as part of a fan’s overall utility. The analysis focuses on point-spread betting and shows that sports fans can increase their contest utility by placing a bet if the contest is unequal and if they are either non-partisan or are sufficiently strong supporters of the underdog. When these conditions are met, an individual will place the bet if the utility gain offsets the expected cost.

Competitive balance and demand for European men's football: a review of the literature

ABSTRACT Research question In European men’s club football, competitive balance is decreasing. Review articles have concluded that the empirical studies do not provide a unanimous answer to the question whether this decrease leads to lower utility for the fans. This paper investigates whether the conclusion of the reviews is (still) correct. Research methods Qualitative analysis is applied to get a better interpretation of the results of the empirical studies. Results and findings There are three types of uncertainty of outcome: short-term, seasonal, and long-term, with possible different dimensions within one type. A possible interpretation of the literature is the following: a decrease in one or two types of uncertainty of outcome, or a certain dimension, can lead to serious reductions in welfare, while the conclusion may be different for other types or dimensions. Several studies suggest that a decrease in (a certain type of) competitive balance has no effect on welfare, or just a small effect, if the competitive balance remains above some minimum level whereas once the competitive balance is below this level, further decreases in it result in serious welfare reductions. Taking these and other points into account, the review concludes that it is highly plausible that the present level of competitive balance is below the welfare-maximising level in most competitions at least, and any further decrease in it will seriously reduce welfare. Implications Policies that improve competitive balance will plausibly also improve welfare. Research contribution Compared to other review studies, this paper pays more attention to the reasons why different empirical studies get different results, which enables a less ambiguous conclusion.

Dissociation and integration of outcome and state uncertainty signals in cognitive control.

Signals related to uncertainty are frequently observed in regions of the cognitive control network, including anterior cingulate/medial prefrontal cortex (ACC/mPFC), dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC), and anterior insular cortex. Uncertainty generally refers to conditions in which decision variables may assume multiple possible values and can arise at multiple points in the perception-action cycle, including sensory input, inferred states of the environment, and the consequences of actions. These sources of uncertainty are frequently correlated: noisy input can lead to unreliable estimates of the state of the environment, with consequential influences on action selection. Given this correlation amongst various sources of uncertainty, dissociating the neural structures underlying their estimation presents an ongoing issue: a region associated with uncertainty related to outcomes may estimate outcome uncertainty itself, or it may reflect a cascade effect of state uncertainty on outcome estimates. In this study, we derive signals of state and outcome uncertainty from mathematical models of risk and observe regions in the cognitive control network whose activity is best explained by signals related to state uncertainty (anterior insula), outcome uncertainty (dlPFC), as well as regions that appear to integrate the two (ACC/mPFC).

Understanding the role of information transparency in improving patient experience under different uncertainties: a quasi-natural experiment

PurposeWaiting time, as an important predictor of queue abandonment and patient satisfaction, is important for resource utilization and patient experience management. Medical institutions have given top priority to reforming the appointment system for many years; however, whether the increased information transparency brought about by the appointment scheduling mechanism could improve patient waiting time is not well understood. In this study, the authors examine the effects of information transparency in reducing patient waiting time from an uncertainty perspective.Design/methodology/approachLeveraging a quasi-natural experiment in a tertiary academic hospital, the authors analyze over one million observational patient visit records and design the propensity score matching plus the difference in difference (PSM-DID) model and hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) to address this issue.FindingsThe authors confirm that, on average, improved information transparency significantly reduces the waiting time for patients by approximately 6.43 min, a 4.90% reduction. The authors identify three types of uncertainties (resource, process and outcome uncertainty) in the patient visit process that affect patients' waiting time. Moreover, information transparency moderates the relationship between three sources of uncertainties and waiting time.Originality/valueThe authors’ work not only provides important theoretical explanations for the patient-level factors of in-clinic waiting time and the reasons for information technology (IT)-enabled appointment scheduling by time slot (ITASS) to shorten patient waiting time and improve patient experience but also provides potential solutions for further exploration of measures to reduce patient waiting time.

Cost-effectiveness of acalabrutinib regimens in treatment-naïve chronic lymphocytic leukemia in the United States

ABSTRACT Background Clinical outcomes in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) have improved with targeted therapy, including Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitors such as acalabrutinib. Methods A semi-Markov model with three health states (progression-free, progressed disease, and death) estimated cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained for acalabrutinib ± obinutuzumab vs chlorambucil + obinutuzumab in treatment-naive CLL (based on ELEVATE-TN). The model used direct costs and resource utilization from the US Medicare perspective and utility values sourced from literature. Sensitivity analyses tested the robustness of the model. Results Over a 30-year lifetime horizon, the model base case analysis suggested that acalabrutinib monotherapy had an incremental cost of $206,329 and 2.52 QALYs gained versus chlorambucil + obinutuzumab, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $81,960/QALY. Acalabrutinib + obinutuzumab had an incremental cost of $423,747 and 2.79 QALYs gained (ICER: $152,153/QALY). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed the probability of acalabrutinib monotherapy being cost-effective as 59% to 73% at a $100,000-to-150,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold; the probability of acalabrutinib + obinutuzumab being cost-effective ranged from 34% to 51%. Conclusions Although the analysis is limited by uncertainty in postprogression survival outcomes, acalabrutinib monotherapy is likely cost-effective vs chlorambucil + obinutuzumab in treatment-naive CLL in the US Medicare setting.

The impact of ‘super clubs’ on uncertainty of outcome in the UEFA women’s champions league

ABSTRACT In the last 15 years, an increasing number of men’s football clubs based in the men’s leagues generating the highest revenue (i.e. Big 5) have started to integrate women’s section into their structure. The emergence of these “super clubs” threatens the long-established financial and sporting inequalities found in European men’s football being replicated in the women’s game. This study examines the measures of outcome uncertainty in the UEFA Women’s Champions League (UWCL) over the 2008–2019 period and how this has been influenced by the presence of “super clubs”. The results indicate a growing trend towards domination by “super clubs”, with outcome uncertainty significantly declining for matches where “super clubs” face other clubs. As indicated in previous research, uncertainty of outcome is necessary in women’s football to maximize spectators’ interest. Therefore, the authors recommend that UEFA should take actions to ensure competitive balance in the UWCL.

Evaluation of management performance of a new state-space model for pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) stock–recruitment analysis

A new state space stock –recruitment (SR) model (XSR) was developed to treat observation errors in spawner and catch data, and nonstationarity in productivity for pink salmon ( Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) . Closed loop simulation was used to evaluate the management performance of XSR and compare its performance with that of a traditional SR model (TSR) and a Kalman Filter (KF). XSR produced higher expected catch than TSR and KF over a wide range of conditions. In some situations, TSR was preferred for reducing conservation concerns. However, large “outcome uncertainty” (OU) or implementation error in achieving desired management objectives can substantially reduce the management benefits of all assessment methods. Thus, OU should be considered in all management strategy evaluations, otherwise results will be misleading. Accordingly, reducing OU may better help achieve objectives.

Forudsigelser om skyld og straffastsættelse

AbstractA certain degree of predictability in criminal law is important for the overall functionality of the criminal justice system. For victims, the accused, and their relatives, predictability – and the lack thereof – has a more concrete and immediate impact. The lack of predictability of how and when cases are handled, and with what outcome, installs an uncertainty of significant events for those involved in the case. This effectively limits those persons’ abilities to make decisions about their cases and their lives. Existing literature correspondingly shows that the process of a criminal case, its duration, and the uncertainty about the outcome represent a significant burden to those involved. There is a real need for legal and procedural empowerment. In this paper, we examine how statistical models increase predictability regarding sentencing outcomes and find that our models reduce the uncertainty of case outcomes for the accused, the victims, and their relatives.

Elucidating medial temporal and frontal lobe contributions to approach-avoidance conflict decision-making using functional MRI and the hierarchical drift diffusion model.

The prefrontal cortex (PFC) has long been associated with arbitrating between approach and avoidance in the face of conflicting and uncertain motivational information, but recent work has also highlighted medial temporal lobe (MTL) involvement. It remains unclear, however, how the contributions of these regions differ in their resolution of conflict information and uncertainty. We designed an fMRI paradigm in which participants approached or avoided object pairs that differed by motivational conflict and outcome uncertainty (complete certainty vs. complete uncertainty). Behavioral data and decision-making parameters estimated using the hierarchical drift diffusion model revealed that participants' responding was driven by conflict rather than uncertainty. Our neural data suggest that PFC areas contribute to cognitive control during approach-avoidance conflict by potentially adjusting response caution and the strength of evidence generated towards either choice, with differential involvement of anterior cingulate cortex and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. The MTL, on the other hand, appears to contribute to evidence generation, with the hippocampus linked to evidence accumulation for stimuli. Although findings within perirhinal cortex were comparatively equivocal, some evidence suggests contributions to perceptual representations, particularly under conditions of threat. Our findings provide evidence that MTL and PFC regions may contribute uniquely to arbitrating approach-avoidance conflict.

Disaggregated Attendance Demand: Comparing Daily Ticket Purchasers and Season Ticket Holders in K-League 1

This study investigates differences in the preferences of daily ticket purchasers and season ticket holders, focusing on outcome uncertainty. Using unique game-level attendance data of both daily ticket purchasers and season ticket holders for every team in the Korean top-tier professional soccer league, we find heterogeneity in demand between daily ticket purchasers and season ticket holders with respect to outcome uncertainty, preference for home team success, team performance, geographical distance between competing teams, and weekend games. Our results suggest that season ticket holders do not care as much about their team's performance and outcome uncertainty as daily ticket purchasers do.

A shared decision-making tool to support the decision of patients with Lumbar Disc Herniation on whether to undergo surgery: a pilot study

This study aims to develop a decision support tool for patients and surgeons dealing with the uncertainty of surgical outcomes and the expectations of both parties for treating symptomatic lumbar disc herniation (LDH). The study uses a mixed-methods approach with Markov Chains (MC) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to predict future health states after surgery for LDH, based on patient-reported outcomes measures (PROMs) and custom weights to each individual PROM and elicited priorities. A case-based analysis of two patients is presented to demonstrate the utility of the model in providing a likely trajectory that priority PROMs will follow over time. The study was conducted under the STROBE guidelines as a post hoc analysis of a large spine outcomes research study conducted in southern Brazil. Data were collected from patients operated between 2006 and 2017 to assess pain, disability, mood, and general health status from the preoperative time point to 1 year after surgery using patient-reported outcome questionnaires. The output of the algorithm represented the chances of surgery fulfilling the expectations of Patients A and B. The results presented by the tool suggest that Patient A will have a considerably higher probability of satisfaction and/or not meeting expectations with surgery than Patient B. The study demonstrates the feasibility and utility of a data-driven decision support tool that takes into account patient preferences and beliefs in generating high-quality decision-making and more utility for long-term outcomes in treating symptomatic lumbar disc herniation.

Controversies in anesthesia-induced developmental neurotoxicity.

Advances in the field of pediatric anesthesiology have enabled the performance of complex and life-saving procedures with minimal patient discomfort. However, preclinical studies over the past two decades have been reporting substantial neurotoxic potential of general anesthetics in young brain, thus challenging the safety of these agents in pediatric anesthesiology practice. Notwithstanding the overwhelming preclinical evidence, the translatability of these findings has proven inconsistent in human observational studies. The significant degree of anxiety and apprehension surrounding the uncertainty of long-term developmental outcomes following early exposure to anesthesia has prompted numerous studies around the world to investigate the putative mechanisms and translatability of preclinical findings regarding anesthesia-induced developmental neurotoxicity. Guided by the vast preclinical evidence, we aim to highlight relevant human findings presented in the currently available clinical literature.

Regularized fingerprinting in detection and attribution of climate change with weight matrix optimizing the efficiency in scaling factor estimation

Detection and attribution analyses play a central role in establishing the causal effect of human activities on global warming. The most commonly used method in such analyses, optimal fingerprinting, is a multiple regression where each covariate has a measurement error whose covariance matrix is the same as that of the regression error up to a known scale. Inferences about the regression coefficients are critical not only for making statements about detection and attribution but also for quantifying the uncertainty in important outcomes derived from detection and attribution analyses. When there are no errors-in-variables (EIV), the optimal weight matrix in estimating the regression coefficients is the precision matrix of the regression error. This matrix, however, is never known and has to be estimated from climate model simulations with regularization. The consequence is that the optimal fingerprinting method is not optimal, as believed in practice. We construct a weight matrix by inverting a nonlinear shrinkage estimate of the error covariance matrix that minimizes loss functions directly targeting the uncertainty of the resulting regression coefficient estimator. The resulting estimator of the regression coefficients is asymptotically optimal as the sample size of the climate model simulations and the matrix dimension go to infinity together with a limiting ratio. When EIVs are present, the estimator of the regression coefficients, based on the proposed weight matrix, is asymptotically more efficient than that based on the inverse of the existing linear shrinkage estimator of the error covariance matrix. The performance of the method is confirmed in finite sample simulation studies mimicking realistic situations in terms of the length of the confidence intervals and empirical coverage rates for the regression coefficients. In an application to detection and attribution analyses of the mean temperature at different spatial scales, the method yielded shorter confidence intervals which are important for such analyses in practice.

Changes in Awareness Toward Minor's Organ Donation Through Structured Information; Survey.

This study analyzed survey results regarding awareness of living minors' organ donation. The questionnaires focused on changes in how respondents felt about donations by living minors after eliciting the uncertainty of long-term outcomes for living donors and recipients. The respondents were categorized as minors, adults affiliated with non-medical jobs (Non-Meds), and adults affiliated with medical jobs (Meds). The rates of awareness of living organ donation were significantly different; minors at 86.2%, non-Meds at 82.0%, and Meds at 98.7% (p < 0.001). Only 41.4% of Minors and 32.0% of Non-Meds were aware of organ donation by minors, while 70.3% of Meds were (p < 0.001). The response rate of opposition to organ donation by minors was highest for Meds and remained the same before and after (54.4%-57.7%, p = 0.311). However, the opposition rate in Non-Meds significantly increased (32.4%-46.7%) after learning about the uncertainty of long-term outcomes (p = 0.009). The study found that Non-Meds lacked adequate knowledge regarding organ donation by minors and their potential lethal outcomes. Their attitudes toward organ donation by minors could be changed by giving structured information. It is necessary to provide exact information and raise social awareness regarding organ donation by living minors.

Outcome Uncertainty and Viewer Demand for Basic Cable Boxing

We examine the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis and consider direct demand for professional boxing using a new dataset for basic cable broadcasts. Our analysis covers 103 broadcasts in the United States from February 2017 to February 2021 for Premier Boxing Champions (FOX) and Top Rank Boxing (ESPN). Using a generalized linear model, we estimate a demand function for basic cable broadcasts and place specific emphasis on adopting alternative measures of outcome uncertainty. We find no evidence that increasing balance between boxers increases viewership figures on basic cable broadcasts. Consistent with pay-per-view boxing viewership, our results demonstrate that bout quality impacts demand for cable broadcasts. Furthermore, we find no evidence of a declining viewership trend, a finding relevant to the industry given the general decrease in viewership trends for main events and pay-per-view broadcasts. Fans continue to demonstrate a preference for the welterweight division.

Potential Baseball Fan Engagement: The Determinants of a New Television Audience in the Chinese Professional Baseball League during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a dramatic increase in baseball viewership, thereby providing an opportunity to comprehensively explore the determinants of the new audience. To this end, we analyze the preferences of the Taiwanese audience in 2019 and 2020, both before and after the COVID-19 outbreak, through TV ratings based on the effect of outcome uncertainty, tournament factors, consumer availability, and game quality. The empirical findings show that the behavior of the small-scale Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) sports television viewing market differs from that of large-scale markets such as Major League Baseball. Additionally, the effect of the outcome uncertainty of the game is inconsistent before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. New audiences, unlike existing audiences, have been affected by team quality and consumer availability that are statistically significant, but tournament factors are not significant. This study provides the first empirical analysis of the factors driving TV ratings of CPBL games as well as the impact before and after the COVID-19 outbreak as a contribution to filling the gap in sports communication research. The observations can be used by strategic departments of professional teams for their marketing target, to identify potential fans, and to direct their marketing resources towards sustaining or even growing during the pandemic events.

Land acquisition and development? Aspirations and economic mobility in Singrauli

ABSTRACT This paper examines economic outcomes and aspirations of land oustees at a PSU’s land acquisition site in Singrauli, Madhya Pradesh (India). Despite more heterogenous economic outcomes based on land acquisition experiences and caste positioning, land oustees have a common aspiration for employment in the urban economy. The resilience of this common aspiration despite the uncertainty of commensurate economic outcomes points to a shared culture of aspirations that recognizes development in terms of non-agrarian futures. While lower-caste land oustees experience circumscribed economic mobility, the process of land acquisition facilitates an expansion in their capacity to navigate the future.