Uncertain Times Research Articles

The Dynamic Return and Volatility Spillovers among Size-Based Stock Portfolios in the Saudi Market and Their Portfolio Management Implications during Different Crises

This study contributes to the ongoing debate on the size effect and size-based investment styles by investigating the return and volatility spillovers and time-varying conditional correlations among Saudi large-, mid-, and small-cap indices. To this end, we utilize the weekly returns on the MSCI Saudi large-, mid-, and small-cap indices over a long sample period, spanning several crises. The econometric approach that we use is a VAR-asymmetric BEKK-GARCH model which accounts for structural breaks. On the basis of the VAR-asymmetric BEKK-GARCH model estimation results, we calculate portfolio weights and hedge ratios, and discuss their risk management implications. The empirical results confirm the presence of unilateral return spillovers running from mid- to small-cap stocks, while multilateral volatility spillovers are documented, albeit substantially weakened when accounting for structural breaks. The time-varying conditional correlations display clear spikes around crises, which translate to higher hedge ratios, increasing the cost of hedging during turbulent times. The optimal portfolio weights suggest that investors generally overweight large caps in their portfolios during uncertain times to minimize risk without lowering expected returns. The main takeaway from our results is that passively confining fund managers to a particular size category regardless of the prevailing market conditions may lead to suboptimal performance.

Happy people: how to nurture employee engagement in an uncertain economy

PurposeThis paper aims to provide information about the importance of employee engagement in uncertain economic times. While the benefits of employee engagement are a widely accepted concept in theory, these efforts often suffer during an unpredictable socioeconomic environment. Often, the first things to go are the very initiatives and culture creators that drive a happy and productive workforce, which can then negatively affect business outcomes. There is a need to strike a balance between the bottom line and a well-rounded and inclusive employer relationship.Design/methodology/approachThe paper is based upon the author’s research as well as strategies and programs they have implemented during their HR leadership career.FindingsTo improve employee engagement, it is essential to involve various departments within HR. It is important to consider all aspects of the employee experience, including members from each team, to create a well-rounded employee life cycle, even during challenging times. Committing to the methods outlined in the article and maintaining accountability will help an organization achieve lasting results.Originality/valueThe paper provides the author’s unique insights into effective strategies for employee engagement and improving the employee’s overall experience.

The effect of entrepreneurial leadership traits on corporate sustainable development and firm performance: a resource-based view

PurposeThis study aims to empirically assess entrepreneurial leadership skills’ role in Corporate Sustainable Development (CSD) and firm performance (FP). This study considers five specific entrepreneurial traits: innovativeness, creativity, analytical thinking, emotional intelligence and passion and motivation. The motivation for this investigation stems from concerns over micro-firms vulnerabilities and small and medium enterprises (SMEs) lacking proper leadership skills. This study is guided by the resource-based view theory and conducted during the pandemic, offering insights into firms operating under constrained conditions.Design/methodology/approachConfirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling (SEM), were used on survey responses from 321 Bahraini firms. This study’s data collection occurred under environmental uncertainties due to the pandemic and provides a unique context for understanding CSD and entrepreneurial leadership skills under high business/environmental uncertainty.FindingsThe findings reveal that entrepreneurial leadership skills positively impact CSD and firm performance through creativity, passion and motivation. However, innovativeness negatively affects CSD and FP. Furthermore, CSD positively influences firm performance.Research limitations/implicationsTheoretical and practical implications, plus limitations, are also discussed in this study.Practical implicationsUnderstanding entrepreneurial leadership skills effect on CSD and firm performance in SMEs is important as SEMs are prone to fail in the early years. This study’s findings and its implications help guide SME leaders in furthering their entrepreneurial leadership skills to foster CSD and firm performance.Originality/valueThis study contributes to comprehending the crucial role of entrepreneurial skills, during uncertain times of the pandemic, for SMEs’ survival. It provides valuable insights for firms operating in competitive environments, offering a unique perspective on the required entrepreneurial skills and their effect on CSD and firm performance.

Green Spaces as Healthy Places: Correlates of Urban Green Space Use in Singapore.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, when stress levels were heightened and social connections were threatened, a spike in green space visits was observed. Drawing upon the value-belief-norm (VBN) theory, which explains the influence of personal values and world view on perceived obligations to the environment and to action, relevant correlates were examined in relation to people's psychological wellbeing in a bid to better elucidate this phenomenon. We aimed to explore the associations amongst a number of protective factors for psychological wellbeing and to examine the applicability of the VBN theory to wellbeing rather than environmental behaviour. Our research aim was to understand some of the correlates of the use of urban green spaces in Singapore during COVID-19. In total, 268 adult residents of Singapore completed an online survey measuring proximity/frequency of visits to green space, value orientations, nature connectedness, social connectedness, religious belief, spirituality and psychological wellbeing, along with sociodemographic variables such as age and gender. As predicted by the VBN theory, biospheric value orientation and spirituality were positively associated with nature connectedness. The nature connectedness association with psychological wellbeing was completely mediated by spirituality. Frequency of visits to nature was also positively associated with nature connectedness. Neither proximity to nature nor social connectedness were associated with nature connectedness. An altruistic value orientation was associated only with religious belief. Our results indicate that during uncertain times, people are drawing on either social or nature connections as coping mechanisms to fulfil psychological needs and enhance psychological wellbeing. Spirituality mediates this pathway for nature connectedness but not for social connectedness.

Building resilience: Getting the supply chain back on track through uncertain times

The Oxford English Dictionary defines resilience as the ability to recover and bounce back after significantly pressing life events with long-lasting impact. The past three years have been among the most turbulent since the Great Depression of the 1900s. But in a more connected world, where socioeconomic conditions are co-dependent on a global supply chain, the way companies look at disruptions has to be different. Come what may, supply chains must be well oiled to keep the intricately connected cogs of the global machinery running. And for that organisations must be prepared to anticipate and tackle issues that come their way or seek out opportunities that make them less vulnerable to supply chain upsets. In other words, they must work on being more resilient than ever before. This paper takes a deep dive into how continuous global adversity has affected organisations and their supply chains and how they can learn from these events to be prepared yet agile for the way ahead.

Confronting Crises: Asian American Histories for Uncertain Times

Confronting Crises: Asian American Histories for Uncertain Times

Art-based self-care during COVID-19

ABSTRACT Background The COVID-19 global pandemic was a profoundly traumatic experience, in which healthcare workers were stressed, anxious, and overwhelmed as they laboured amidst chaos, upheaval, and mounting death. During such challenging and uncertain times, it is imperative to prioritise self-care in order to maintain mental and emotional wellbeing. Aims This study explored the impact of an art-based self-care practice on the resilience of a healthcare worker during a 14-day quarantine on a trip to South Korea during COVID-19. Methods Interpretive phenomenological analysis (IPA) was employed to analyze written reflections of artwork created during my quarantine. I employed a grounding art therapy directive consisting of six steps: find a comfortable position, identify my feelings, allow thoughts or images to arise, create and respond to the images, engage in art dialogue with the artwork, and give a name to the whole process. Results Three phases emerged reflecting a journey in which states of powerlessness and confusion gave way to a release of frozen feelings and a renewal of body awareness. Elaborated healing images then emerged representing a return of hope, spirituality, growth, and a longing to reconnect with others. Conclusions Amidst such a chaotic overwhelming traumatic experience art-based self-care practices can be a way to regain a sense of control and self-efficacy. Implications for practice/policy/future research Art-based self-care practices can be valuable for healthcare workers during times of crisis and stress. Including semi-structured interviews inquiring into the experiences of a larger number of participants and controlled experimental designs would help validate these findings. Plain-language summary The COVID-19 global pandemic was a profoundly traumatic experience, affecting individuals worldwide and causing acute anxiety, stress, and sense of overwhelm. Healthcare workers, in particular, were stressed and exhausted due to work overload. During such challenging times, it is imperative to prioritise self-care to increase resilience. I had been working as art therapist in a psychiatric unit of a hospital for 9 months when I had to return to my birthplace of South Korea to attend to a family matter. Facing a 14-day quarantine, I decided to practice art-based self-care as a way to soothe and attend to my anxious emotional state. I wanted to understand the benefits of art-based self-care on resilience in healthcare workers. The directive consisted of six steps: find a comfortable position, identify my feelings, allow thoughts or images to arise, create and respond to the images, allow verbal responses to the images, and give a name to the whole process. I examined the written reflections of the artwork I created during daily self-care practice. The results reflect a journey, in which a state of fragmentation and exhaustion gave way under the exploration of my complex inner state, releasing diverse emotions, and leading to bodily awareness and emotional restoration. I rediscovered a sense of hope and a spiritual inclination to reconnect with others. Art-based self-care helped facilitate reconnection with myself, my needs, my body, and others, which in turn enabled me to prioritise self-care during the stresses of COVID-19. Policymakers and healthcare organisations should consider incorporating art-based self-care programmes for healthcare workers to support their resilience and emotional wellbeing. Future researchers should consider interviewing a larger number of healthcare workers who follow the grounding art-therapy directive I used. Stronger research designs could be used to further support my findings and inform future interventions for healthcare workers.

Emergent literacy: effects of a multi-tier intervention in a COVID-19 pandemic context

ABSTRACT Emergent literacy (EL) interventions are effective at fostering foundational skills for reading and writing. During the COVID-19 pandemic schools faced several challenges to maintain these interventions, namely changing face-to-face to remote modalities. In this study, the effects of a multi-tier emergent literacy intervention are examined, delivered both in face-to-face and remote modalities, during the second COVID-19 pandemic lockdown. The intervention was delivered to 102 preschool Portuguese children (aged 5–6 years) according to the Multi-Tier Systems of Support (MTSS) framework and evaluated using a pre and post-test design and a single group. The results showed significant gains after the intervention in all emergent literacy skills evaluated: phonological awareness, vocabulary, print concepts, alphabet knowledge, and emergent writing. These findings highlight the relevance of systematic interventions that implement universal screenings, progress monitoring and decision-making processes based on children’s performance, and the potentialities of using mixed modalities (face-to-face and remote) to deliver such interventions in uncertain times.

Reading in Uncertain Times

Reading in Uncertain Times

Wellbeing

Wellbeing

Organizational agility, dynamic managerial capability, stakeholder management, discretion, and project success: Evidence from the upstream oil and gas sectors

Today's organizations are dealing with a turbulent and unpredictable business environment. In these uncertain times, it is critical that managers at all levels have a deep understanding of discretion as part of the decision-making process. This study investigated the relationship between perceived managerial discretion and project success in the upstream oil and gas sectors. A total of 108 project managers participated in this study. We analyzed data using covariance-based structural equation modelling (CB-SEM) to construct a framework that highlights the importance of dynamic managerial capabilities and organizational agility on perceived managerial discretion. The results confirm and emphasize the direct role of perceived managerial discretion on project success. The study notes the essential roles of strategic management literacy in mediating the relationship between perceived managerial discretion and project success in Indonesia and provides insights for middle managers seeking to foster the success of projects by considering strategic management literacy.

Book review: Relational pedagogies: Connections and mattering in higher education

This book review of Relational Pedagogies: Connections and Mattering in Higher Education by Karen Gravett aims to offer a compelling analysis that enhances the scholarly conversations around the importance of building relationships and connections in higher education, particularly in complex and uncertain times. By situating the book's arguments within the wider academic discourse, the review strives to provide valuable insights, meaningful connections and an assessment of the book's impact on advancing relational pedagogies in higher education. By centering the perspectives of Black women and other marginalised groups, the review offers an intersectional critique that strives to expand the discourse on posthumanism and sociomateriality. This critical review of the book may serve as a valuable resource for scholars, educators, administrators and activists interested in advancing intersectional approaches to post-anthropocentric teaching and learning. Relational Pedagogies provides a means for resurfacing often forgotten questions, thinking with different theories and encouraging us to engage various others as we work to address issues of relationality, connection and mattering in contemporary and meaningful ways.

Teaching in uncertain times: Exploring links between the pandemic, assessment workload, and teacher wellbeing in England

In early 2021, schools in England went into a second period of lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We wanted to look at how the pandemic influenced teachers’ working experiences. In particular, our focus of interest was on changes to teachers’ pedagogic, curricular and assessment practices, and how these changes impacted on their workload and wellbeing. We involved 15 teachers from a spread of regions, localities, school types and sizes across England. The teachers were working with students in Year 11 and/or 13 across a range of subject areas that would be particularly prone to the effects of any moves towards remote learning or disruption to examined assessment. To capture the teachers’ working experiences we used a mixed methods approach. This approach involved teachers recording their experiences in a series of solicited diaries over a 4-month period in early 2021. We complemented the insights gleaned from the teachers’ diaries with data from teacher interviews and surveys. This approach allowed us to link teachers’ experiences during the pandemic to their workload and their perceptions of wellbeing. Our analyses suggest that there were some features of workload that negatively affected teacher wellbeing during the pandemic period, particularly around assessment-related tasks. We also found that some of the social dimensions of teachers’ work positively contributed to their wellbeing, particularly where teachers’ work involved interactions with students and with colleagues.

Perceived Role of the School Nurse in Providing Pertinent COVID-19 Information to the School Community: Experiences of Public Health Graduate Students With School-Aged Children.

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a major disruptor to school systems across the United States since March 2020. As a result, school nurses have had to adapt to these uncertain times. Previous research has demonstrated the impact of school nurses on student health; however, less is known about their role in educating the broader school community about COVID-19 prevention. In Spring 2022, four focus groups were conducted with public health graduate students with school-aged children, to assess perceptions of COVID-19 and public health emergency preparedness communication. MAXQDA was used for thematic analysis. School nurses were viewed as a credible source of COVID-19 information, especially for those who do not have access to healthcare services. While the primary role of school nurses is to provide health services to students, they also have the capacity to provide the community with vital public health emergency preparedness information.

Between the acts: At home in uncertain times

Written during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, this short essay reflects on a changing world in the midst of major upheaval. Bringing together the philosophical thought of the late Agnes Heller with the historical meditations expressed in Virginia Woolf’s final novel Between the Acts, the essay attends to the ways that historical transition plays out in the everyday. Writing on the cusp of the Second World War, Woolf is acutely aware of an atmosphere of historical change, and she writes this unease into the everyday transitions of her characters and ambience of the novel. Drawing on Heller’s reflections on notions of home, I consider how our experience of everyday life reflects the undulations of history. Taking Woolf’s prompt, I tune into the ways that the unease of historical transition enters the everyday through a heightened awareness of contingency and growing sense of the uncanny.

Exploring investment strategies for sustainable development in an uncertain landscape

Current study examines the opportunities for individuals to invest in various money and capital market instruments, ranking, grading and analyzing each of the eleven options proposed. This issue is very relevant and affects all citizens, because in times of insecurity, crisis and war, people are scared and looking for alternatives to preserve their money’s worth and "escape" from rising inflation. At the same time, European directives in the last decade put sustainable development, the transition to a circular economy, "green" financing, etc. at the center of economies. The extent to which the economies of Eastern Europe are prepared for this transition is a matter of debate, but it is indisputable that large-scale investments are needed for its implementation. Investment choice has always been at the center of every economic activity. That's why we turn our attention to possible investment options in today's uncertain times.

Corporate Risk Disclosure Trends in South Africa During the Covid-19 Pandemic

The novel Covid-19 pandemic created uncertainty around the world. Users now require more information about risk exposure; this paper explored the risk disclosure pattern of South African listed companies during the Covid-19 pandemic. The phenomenon of corporate risk disclosure was explored through a multi-theoretical lens, including agency, legitimacy, and stakeholder theories, given the multi-faceted nature of risk reporting. A content analysis of the annual reports of a sample of non-financial companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) was conducted before and during the Covid-19 pandemic from 2019 to 2021. 84 annual reports were analyzed to determine the extent of corporate risk disclosure, both voluntary and mandatory. A self-developed disclosure index of 25 risk items distributed over three risk categories was used to establish the quantity of corporate risk disclosure. A clear upward trend in the extent of corporate risk disclosure was noted during the Covid-19 pandemic. Given the importance of risk information for decision-making in uncertain times, this study sought to provide an understanding of risk disclosure behavior in South Africa during the initial stage of the pandemic, for which there is limited extant literature. Where extant corporate risk disclosure studies have been conducted in the context of developing economies, this study's findings can be extended to other emerging countries. This study provides the first analysis of the extent of corporate risk disclosure in South Africa during the pandemic. The study's findings are relevant to information users, companies, government, regulatory bodies, and academics.

‘We are all in this together’: Coping with stress during uncertain times through somatic experiencing

The COVID-19 pandemic has had an impact on all countries and induced excessive stress and anxiety among many who are dealing with this invisible danger. Stress and anxiety originate from a threat, and chronic exposure to stressors results in feeling overwhelmed. When the coping strategies are not effective in a certain situation, the person might demonstrate conditioned reactions like fight, flight, or freeze. Somatic Experiencing (SE) is a resiliency-based approach that focuses on these conditioned responses of the nervous system to support the innate regulatory capacity of the body through interoceptive awareness and bodily sensations. This study aims to increase resiliency factors through a SE-based group counselling process. Two groups, an intervention and control group, each consisting of nine individuals, attended a group process for eight weeks. In addition to these groups, a waitlist control group was formed consisting of 31 people. In addition to pre-and-post individual interviews, The COPE-Revised and the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale were administered to both experiment groups and the waitlist control group. An ANCOVA analysis found that the group process was statistically significant for both reducing stress and developing coping strategies. Furthermore, as a result of the qualitative content analysis of the interviews, five themes emerged: hope, universality, cohesiveness, insight, and interpersonal output (new behaviour).

Scheduling wagons to unload in bulk cargo ports with uncertain processing times

Optimising operations in bulk cargo ports is of great relevance due to their major participation in international trade. In inbound operations, which are critical to meet due dates, the product typically arrives by train and must be transferred to the stockyard. This process requires several machines and is subject to frequent disruptions leading to uncertain processing times. This work focuses on the scheduling problem of unloading the wagons to the stockyard, approaching both the deterministic and the stochastic versions. For the deterministic problem, we compare three solution approaches: a Mixed Integer Programming model, a Constraint Programming model and a Greedy Randomised algorithm. The selection rule of the latter is evolved by Genetic Programming. The stochastic version is tackled by dispatching rules, also evolved via Genetic Programming. The proposed approaches are validated using real data from a leading company in the mining sector. Results show that the new heuristic presents similar results to the company’s algorithm in a considerably shorter computational time. Moreover, we perform extensive computational experiments to validate the methods on a wide spectrum of randomly generated instances. Finally, as managing uncertainty is fundamental for the effectiveness of these operations, distinct strategies are compared, ranging from purely predictive to completely reactive scheduling. We conclude that re-scheduling with high frequency is the best approach to avoid performance deterioration under schedule disruptions, and using the evolved dispatching rules incur fewer deviations from the original schedule.

Being Caught in a Vicious Circle: An Interview Study of Individuals Suffering From Grade II-IV Hiatal Hernia.

Large paraesophageal hernias are related to life-threatening complications that warrant immediate surgery. Whether the long-standing chronic symptoms related to the disease in individuals without hernia incarceration motivate surgical treatment is still a subject for discussion. The aim of this study was to explore how individuals suffering from Grade II-IV hiatal hernia describe their symptoms and health, as well as how the disease affects their life. Semistructured interviews were performed with 22 individuals planning to undergo surgery for a large paraesophageal hernia. The data were analyzed using qualitative content analysis and resulted in one main theme "Being caught in a vicious circle" and six subthemes "Distressing and uncertain times," "The symptoms have seized control over my health," "Loss of energy and strength," "Strategies for managing daily life," "Loss of social life," and "Moments of hope despite failing health." Central to the participants' descriptions is their commitment to strategies for managing the ever-present and unpredictable symptoms that have seized control over their health. They were trapped in a hopeless and isolated existence, that is, a vicious circle, from which they were unable to escape. Despite the low incidence of volvulus and incarceration, the symptom burden and effect on general health motivate treatment in these individuals.