Uncertain Reasoning Research Articles

Trust management for secure cognitive radio vehicular ad hoc networks

Recently, there are growing interests in cognitive radio vehicular ad hoc networks (CR-VANETs), which is a kind of intelligent cyber-physical systems. In CR-VANETs, there are two main processes: spectrum sensing and data transmission. Although some excellent works have been done to address spectrum sensing security and data transmission security in CR-MANETs, these two important areas have traditionally been addressed separately in the literature. In this paper, we propose to use a common framework to study trust management so as to enhance security for both spectrum sensing and data transmission processes in CR-VANETs. We identify a new attack, named joint spectrum sensing and data transmission (JSSDT) attack, in which an attacker can report fake sensing data in the spectrum sensing process as well as drop packets in the data transmission process. Then, using recent advances in the theory of uncertain reasoning, we propose a unified trust management scheme for both spectrum sensing and data transmission processes in CR-VANETs. In addition, based on the unified trust model, we present a weighted consensus-based spectrum sensing scheme to protect the spectrum sensing process. Moreover, we apply the trust value derived from the unified trust model to enhance the security of the data transmission process in CR-VANETs. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed trust-based security schemes.

Security Enhancements for Mobile Ad Hoc Networks with Trust Management Using Uncertain Reasoning

Security Enhancements for Mobile Ad Hoc Networks with Trust Management Using Uncertain Reasoning

Imprecise Uncertain Reasoning: A Distributional Approach.

The contribution proposes to model imprecise and uncertain reasoning by a mental probability logic that is based on probability distributions. It shows how distributions are combined with logical operators and how distributions propagate in inference rules. It discusses a series of examples like the Linda task, the suppression task, Doherty's pseudodiagnosticity task, and some of the deductive reasoning tasks of Rips. It demonstrates how to update distributions by soft evidence and how to represent correlated risks. The probabilities inferred from different logical inference forms may be so similar that it will be impossible to distinguish them empirically in a psychological study. Second-order distributions allow to obtain the probability distribution of being coherent. The maximum probability of being coherent is a second-order criterion of rationality. Technically the contribution relies on beta distributions, copulas, vines, and stochastic simulation.

Bayesian argumentation and the value of logical validity.

According to the Bayesian paradigm in the psychology of reasoning, the norms by which everyday human cognition is best evaluated are probabilistic rather than logical in character. Recently, the Bayesian paradigm has been applied to the domain of argumentation, in which the fundamental norms are traditionally assumed to be logical. Here, we present a major generalization of extant Bayesian approaches to argumentation that (a) utilizes a new class of Bayesian learning methods that are better suited to modeling dynamic and conditional inferences than standard Bayesian conditionalization, (b) is able to characterize the special value of logically valid argument schemes in uncertain reasoning contexts, (c) greatly extends the range of inferences and argumentative phenomena that can be adequately described in a Bayesian framework, and (d) undermines some influential theoretical motivations for dual function models of human cognition. We conclude that the probabilistic norms given by the Bayesian approach to rationality are not necessarily at odds with the norms given by classical logic. Rather, the Bayesian theory of argumentation can be seen as justifying and enriching the argumentative norms of classical logic. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Double Conjunction Fallacies in Physicians' Probability Judgment.

We report the first empirical data showing a significant amount of double conjunction fallacies in physicians' probability judgments concerning prognosis and diagnosis. Our results support the hypothesis that physicians' probability judgments are guided by assessments of evidential impact between diagnostic conditions and clinical signs. Moreover, we show that, contrary to some influential views, double conjunction fallacies represent an experimentally replicable reasoning bias. We discuss how the phenomenon eludes major current accounts of uncertain reasoning in medicine and beyond and how it relates to clinical practice.

Novel Neuroprotective Lead Compound Ligustrazine Derivative Mass Spectrometry Fragmentation Rule and Metabolites in Rats by LC/LTQ-Orbitrap MS.

The neuroprotective evaluation of ligustrazine derivatives has become a research focus all over the world. A novel ligustrazine derivative, (3,5,6-Trimethylpyrazin-2-yl)methyl(E)-3-(4-((3,5,6-trimethylpyrazin-2-l)methoxy)phenyl)acrylate (T-CA), has shown protective effects against CoCl2-induced neurotoxicity in a differentiated PC12 cell model and middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) model in our previous studies. However, nearly none of the parent drugs existed after rapid metabolism due to uncertain reasons. Thus, the fragmentation regularities of mass spectra, and metabolites, of T-CA in rats were examined using liquid chromatography-electrospray ionizationion trap mass spectrometry (LC/LTQ-Orbitrap MS) in this research. The main fragment ion, mass spectrum characteristics, and the structural information were elucidated. When compared with a blank sample, we identified five kinds of T-CA metabolites, including three phase I metabolites and two phase II metabolites. The results showed that the metabolic pathways of T-CA in rats via oral administration were hydrolysis (ether bond rupture, ester bond rupture), oxidation, reduction, glucose aldehyde acidification, etc. In addition, three main metabolites were synthesized and their structures were identified by superconducting high-resolution NMR and high-resolution mass spectroscopy (HR-MS). The neuroprotective activity of these metabolites was validated in a PC12 cell model. One of the metabolites (M2) showed significant activity (EC50 = 9.67 μM), which was comparable to the prototype drug T-CA (EC50 = 7.97 μM). The current study provides important information for ligustrazine derivatives, pertaining to the biological conversion process in vivo.

Smart community evaluation for sustainable development using a combined analytical framework

Abstract Current attempts for sustainable-focused smart community evaluation have failed to make significant advancements, and quantitative analysis for sustainable development is still a major challenge in China. In recent years, smart community evaluation (SCE) for sustainable development has attracted considerable attentions. Government decision-makers can make it easier to stimulate household sustainable consumption by conducting SCE. This paper develops a combined analytical framework that will assist in the process of multi-source data integration and uncertain reasoning of SCE. This framework is used to combine quantitative metrics and subjective judgment with evidential reasoning approach, and this frarmework can also take decision makers’ risk preferences into consideration using prospect theory. Four urban communities are evaluated by the proposed framework to demonstrate its applicability and effectiveness.

The objectivity of Subjective Bayesianism

Subjective Bayesianism is a major school of uncertain reasoning and statistical inference. It is often criticized for a lack of objectivity: (i) it opens the door to the influence of values and biases, (ii) evidence judgments can vary substantially between scientists, (iii) it is not suited for informing policy decisions. My paper rebuts these concerns by connecting the debates on scientific objectivity and statistical method. First, I show that the above concerns arise equally for standard frequentist inference with null hypothesis significance tests (NHST). Second, the criticisms are based on specific senses of objectivity with unclear epistemic value. Third, I show that Subjective Bayesianism promotes other, epistemically relevant senses of scientific objectivity—most notably by increasing the transparency of scientific reasoning.

An approach to assess the value of industrial heritage based on Dempster–Shafer theory

Abstract Industrial heritage associated with political, economic, cultural, social, scientific, technological, and architectural fields has been a crucial concern to nations and governments, since it reveals the way our ancestors lived, records technical progress and realizes cultural continuity. Thus, conserving and reusing industrial heritage is a vital decision-making issue. Studies on multiple criteria provide a series of methods to assist; however, they confuse uncertain with unknown, whilst most of them are not applicable due to uncertain reasoning. Here, an evaluation system of the value of industrial heritage is built using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy sets used for translating comments from experts. Then, we present the Dempster–Shafer theory (D-S theory) to classify industrial heritage based on an evaluation system of the value of industrial heritage. Taking industry type, year, development process, immediate surroundings, and remains into consideration, we select 16 industrial heritage sites as samples to verify the feasibility of D-S theory. The results suggest that D-S theory is effective in fusing evidences, and that the mass function is reliable for confirming conservation levels. The integration of AHP, D-S theory and fuzzy theory establishes a mathematical model that targets information fusing and reduces the uncertainty of evaluations, providing a new approach for confirming the level of heritage conservation.

A First-Order Logic Framework of Major Choosing Decision Making With an Uncertain Reasoning Function

This paper proposes an auto-decision making system, knowledge-based major choosing decision (KMCD), which helps remote students choose their majors. It is built within a first-order reasoning system with an uncertain reasoning function. The knowledge of both students who want to choose their majors and who have finished their studies are used in the decision making process of the system. KMCD provides personalized suggestions to those students who want to choose majors. Both the learning abilities of students and the career prospects of majors are carefully analyzed on the basis of the knowledge in database. As these analyzing results are well utilized in the decision making process of KMCD, it can be expected that the students who take the suggestions will have a better chance to get graduated smoothly and start their careers successfully after graduation. A detailed description of KMCD is given, which shows that the system is actually a reasonable decision making framework with a capability of expansion of other knowledge which is supposed to be useful for major choosing. An experimental study on data of real college students is devised to justify the effectiveness of KMCD.

High-speed Train Control System Big Data Analysis Based on the Fuzzy RDF model and Uncertain Reasoning

China high-speed train control system is a combination of computer, communication and control. Its events are diverse, including sensor data stream, GPS signal, GSM-R transmission data, real-time video monitoring data, train control software data, etc. These data have the typical characteristics of big data. If these data are well applied, this will be of great help to operations, maintenance, safety, passenger services, etc. This paper presents an efficient analysis method based on the fuzzy RDF model and uncertain reasoning for high-speed train control system big data. We have used the method proposed in this paper to analyze the data of the high-speed train control system. The experiment results show that the method proposed in this paper has good efficiency and scalability for the analysis of big data with different structures, types and context sensitive from high-speed train control system.

Design and Development of CTSR with Direct & Indirect Observations of MANET Applications

Prominent applications scenarios like military and commercial platforms mostly rely on wireless communications such as Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN), Mobile Ad-hoc Networks (MANET) and Vehicular Ad-hoc Networks (VANET). Based on the application scenario, the reliability of the nodes deployed has become more important for trust management evaluation. At the same time, trust management system should not be power killing, complex in terms of computation and processing capability. To convey a noticeable framework, we propose Collaborative Trust based Secure Routing protocol (CTSR) for observing direct and indirect trust values. Here we utilize two-way acknowledgement-based trust framework (2-ACKT) which requires lesser memory resources and minimizes the communication overhead. Our simulation setup for Mobile Adhoc Networks with 2-ACKT framework calculates trust value with both direct and indirect observations based on Bayesian inference and Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) of uncertain reasoning approach respectively. Since the inception of DST for indirect observation in wireless networks trust values are effectively derived with data packets and control packets. The capability of DST to solve the problems with different reliability has flaws in certain areas where the nodes were subjected to disclose critical information like residual energy level and available bandwidth. And also common results derived from DST may lead to uncertain decisions. Considering all these factors we make few notable modifications in DST to enhance the security feature in 2-ACT.

Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment Stability of Vegetated Slope with 3D Geomat Protection Using Cloud Model

Based on the analysis of the classification criteria from various factors,a comprehensive evaluation system of the erosion stability of the vegetated eco-slope protected by 3D geomat is established. To solve the problem of uncertainty in the slope erosion stability analysis and consider the feature of both of random and fuzziness, the theory of Cloud Model has been applied into comprehensive evaluation to realize the uncertainty conversion between the qualitative concept and the quantitative data. By constructing the qualitative rule generator, the specific score of the evaluation index is determined according to the uncertain reasoning. The weights of the evaluation indexes are determined with the help of the Analytic Hierarchy Process developed by Cloud Model (CM-AHP), and then the overall score of the comprehensive evaluation system is obtained. The results of engineering examples demonstrate the practicability and effectiveness of the assessment model, which provides a new way for the evaluation of the erosion stability of the vegetated eco-slope protected by the 3D geomat.

Clinical effect analysis of endovascular repair for aortic pseudoaneurysms in 13 cases

Objective: To discuss the clinical safety and efficacyof endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) for aortic pseudoaneurysms. Methods: From October 2008 to October 2015, 13 patients (11 male, 2 female, with a mean age of 55.6) with aortic pseudoaneurysms treated by EVAR wereenrolled. All the 13 casesunderwentcomputed tomographic arteriography (CTA). The etiology diagnosis withdescendingaortic pseudoaneurysms, infected abdominal aortic pseudoaneurysms, abdominal aortic pseudoaneurysmsin Behcet's syndrome, and uncertain reasons were 4, 4, 4, and 1 case, respectively. Results: In this group, 14 stentswere planted.All the patients hadno accidents and complications in perioperative period.Twelve patients were successfully followed up, 1 patient died of recurrent abdominal aortic pseudoaneurysmsin Behcet's syndrome, and 1 patient with recurrent infected abdominal aortic pseudoaneurysm wascured by pseudoaneurysm resection and extra-anatomic bypass grafting. Concluson: EVAR is a safe and effective option for aortic pseudoaneurysms.

How to fix a broken heart: Cardiac disease and the ‘multiverse’ of stem cell research in Canada

This article focuses on Canadian stem cell researchers working on therapeutic appli- cations of autologous stem cells for heart disease. Building on the concept of ‘multiverse’ – coined by William James and then further developed by Ernst Bloch – we are interested in the simultaneity of the certain and uncertain, sometimes contradictory arguments articulated by these scientists. In the first part of the article we illustrate some of the factors that provide certainty for researchers and clinicians. The second part analyzes the ways in which uncertain elements become integrated into a discourse of certainty. What we would like to show, using the concept of multiverse, is that a rela- tively new bio-technology such as stem cell treatments generally relies on both certain and uncertain reasoning. However, uncertainty has to give way to a platform of partial certainty, if crucial action is to be taken on issues as diverse as treatments and grant applications. The principle mechanisms we found that can make this kind of transformation possible target future developments (what we call ‘if only arguments’), including past encouraging results in need of further research.

Bottom contact behaviour by humpback whales in Brazilian waters: first underwater observations at Trindade Island

Few records of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) have been made in Brazilian oceanic waters. This article reports the first record of bottom contact behaviour by humpback whales in Brazilian waters and adds four new sightings of the species to Trindade, an island located 1160 km from the Brazilian coast. The bottom contact behaviour has been associated with moult and hygienic functions for some cetaceans. The change of water temperature, triggered by the migration from cold Antarctic waters to the warm tropical Trindade coast, could have accelerated the turnover of skin superficial layers and the moulting process to this humpback whale here reported. Despite such uncertain reason of the behaviour, this novel record comes to increase the behavioural repertoire for the humpback whales in Brazilian waters, may be possibly an additional cleaning strategy.

Uncertain relational reasoning in the parietal cortex

The psychology of reasoning is currently transitioning from the study of deductive inferences under certainty to inferences that have degrees of uncertainty in both their premises and conclusions; however, only a few studies have explored the cortical basis of uncertain reasoning. Using transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), we show that areas in the right superior parietal lobe (rSPL) are necessary for solving spatial relational reasoning problems under conditions of uncertainty. Twenty-four participants had to decide whether a single presented order of objects agreed with a given set of indeterminate premises that could be interpreted in more than one way. During the presentation of the order, 10-Hz TMS was applied over the rSPL or a sham control site. Right SPL TMS during the inference phase disrupted performance in uncertain relational reasoning. Moreover, we found differences in the error rates between preferred mental models, alternative models, and inconsistent models. Our results suggest that different mechanisms are involved when people reason spatially and evaluate different kinds of uncertain conclusions.

A Survey of Headache Medicine Physicians on the Likeability of Headaches and Their Personal Headache History.

Two prior studies have shown an increased prevalence of migraine among physicians who are headache medicine specialists (HMS). There have been no studies of the prevalence of other headache disorders among HMS. A prior survey showed that neurologists like to treat some headaches more than others but there has not been a similar survey of HMS. The aim of the survey was to learn more about the prevalence of headaches among HMS and which headache disorders they like to treat. An email survey was sent to 749 physician members of the American Headache Society who were asked to respond to the following statement using a 5-point Likert scale (from 1, strongly disagree to 5, strongly agree): "I like to treat patients with the following types of headaches or syndromes." They were asked, "Have you personally suffered from any of the following at any time during your life: episodic migraine (EM), chronic migraine (CM), refractory migraine (RM), episodic cluster (EC), chronic cluster (CC), new daily persistent headache (NDPH), and postconcussion syndrome (PCS)." The response rate was 15.8% (n = 118) with a mean age of 51.4 years, 64.4% males, and 85.6% neurologists. HMS reported likeability for treating disorders in rank order as follows: EM (mean = 4.69, SD = 0.61); CM (mean = 4.20, SD = 0.94); RM (mean = 3.62, SD = 1.17); EC (mean = 4.37, SD = 0.80); CC (mean = 3.68, SD = 1.10); NDPH (mean = 3.52, SD = 1.21); and PCS (mean = 3.66, SD = 1.18). The lifetime prevalence of disorders was as follows: EM, 69.5% (85.7% in females and 60.5% in males); CM, 13.6% (19% in females and 10.5% in males); RM, .9% (2.4% females and 0% males); EC, 1.7% (0% females and 2.6% males); CC, 0%; NDPH, 0%, and PCS, 4.2% (7.1% females and 2.6% males). HMS with a personal history of EM (mean = 4.73, SD = 0.51) showed a significant preference (t130 = 7.30, P < .001) to treat episodic migraine more than other headaches (mean = 3.90, SD = 0.77). HMS preferred to treat some disorders more than others, with EM most liked and NDPH least preferred, which may reflect how well patients with those disorders respond to treatment. The lifetime prevalence of EM among HMS is significantly greater than among neurologists, both significantly greater than EM in the general population. An explanation for the higher prevalence among neurologists is not certain but perhaps migraine is associated with a choice to become an HMS during or after neurology residency. The lifetime prevalence among HMS of CM may be and EC is much greater than among the general population for uncertain reasons.

Twelve Year Outcomes of Oxinium Total Knee Arthroplasty Compared to the Same Cobalt Chrome Prosthesis

Introduction:Alternative bearings surfaces to Cobalt Chrome (Co-Cr), such as Oxidised have been introduced in an attempt to reduce polyethylene wear and hence decrease TKA loosening and lysis. While non-comparative reports have been described as promising, no short or long term clinical studies exists showing the superiority of Oxinium on a polyethylene bearing surfaces. In this study, we investigate the long-term outcomes of Oxinium and Co-Cr TKR in a “like for like” or matched cohort analysis of the Genesis II design (Smith & Nephew, Memphis, TN, USA). Using data from a large national joint replacement registry we selected cohorts that used only the cruciate retaining design, with the same method of fixation and polyethylene type, differing only in the femoral component bearing surfaces. Our primary hypothesis was that Oxinium TKA would have a lower cumulative percent revision than the same Co-Cr prosthesis at 12 years for all causes of revision. Our secondary hypothesis was that Oxinium TKA would have a lower loosening/ lysis rate and lower rate of non-infective revision than the same Co-Cr prosthesis at 12 years.Methods:Cumulative percent revision and revision diagnosis data were obtained from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry (AOANJRR) from 1 September 1999, until 31 December 2013.Results:At 12 years the cumulative percent revision of the Co-Cr Genesis II of 4.8 % (95%: CI 4.2, 5.4) for all causes was not statistically different to the Oxinium Genesis II CPR of 7.7 % (95%: CI 6.2, 9.5) (For the entire period, Hazard Ratio = 1.09 (95%: CI 0.92, 1.29), p = 0.329). The CPR for all causes was not different in the under 55 years old age group (Figure 3) (HR= 1.06 (0.68, 1.66) p=0.798).). Subgroup analysis of the CPR for loosening /lysis in both groups overall was not different (HR= 0.87 (95%: CI 0.61, 1.26), p = 0.461) Subgroup analysis of all causes of revisions excluding infection in both groups overall was not different (HR = 0.87 (95%: CI 0.71, 1.06), p = 0.155) . No difference in CPR was found between the Oxinium and Co-Cr groups for any age category for all causes of revision, loosening/lysis or non-infective causes, except for loosening/lysis in the >75 years old group (p=0.033). In these patients, Oxinium TKA had a higher CPR due to uncertain reasons.Conclusions:In this AOANJRR age stratified matched cohort study, Oxinium femoral components did not reduce revision rates due to all causes, loosening/lysis or when infection as a cause of revision was removed, compared to the same Co-Cr femoral component, across all age groups including patients who were under 55 years of age.

Enhancing the Security for Manet by Identifying Untrusted Nodes using Uncertainity Rules

Background/Objectives: Trust based models offer security against vulnerabilities due to the dynamic and open wireless medium. The raise up of uncertain reasoning methods originates from the artificial intelligence leads to trust management protocols for the creation of secure environment in MANET. Methods/Statistical Analysis: In this paper, two schemes namely, direct and indirect observation based trust evaluation are proposed. Initially, the network is formed to investigate the security. The utilization of full probability model in Bayesian interface evaluates the trust from the observer node in direct observation scheme. Alternatively, the neighbor hop information is used in the derivation of trust value in indirect observation scheme. Another type of uncertain reasoning called Dempster-Shafter theory calculates the trust value after the observation schemes. Finally, the Dijkstra’s algorithm establishes the routing process on the basis of shortest path. Findings: The proposed observation schemes provide more accurate results compared to existing ones. The comparative analysis of proposed hybrid model with the existing model assures the effectiveness on the parameters of Packet Delivery Ratio (PDR), throughput with less overhead for variation in number of nodes and node speed. Improvements/Applications: The results of MANET routing scenario positively support the effectiveness and performance of our scheme and we can extend the proposed scheme to MANETs with cognitive radios. Keywords: Bayesian Interface, Dempster-Shafter Theory (DST), Direct Observation, Indirect Observation, Mobile Ad-hoc Network (MANET), Security, Trust Evaluation, Uncertain Reasoning