Uncertain Context Research Articles

Childhood hearing loss: An uncertain context for parenting

ABSTRACT Parents of children with hearing loss (HL) often navigate an unfamiliar and uncertain path. This qualitative study investigated the nature of parental uncertainty: (1) immediately after a child’s HL was identified; (2) prior to primary school entry; and (3) during primary school. Open-ended questions in online surveys were completed by participants (N = 61) with: (a) personal experience as a parent of a child with HL (n = 35); (b) professional experience with children who have HL (n = 19); or (c) a combination of both parental and professional experience (n = 7). Six major themes were abstracted using thematic analysis, including uncertainty about: (1) the Pervasive Impact of HL, (2) the Nature and Causes of HL, (3) Developmental Impacts, (4) Family Life, (5) Family Decision-Making, and (6) Education and Support Services. The salience of these depended on the stage in time following identification.

MARCOS approach based upon cubic Fermatean fuzzy set and its application in evaluation and selecting cold chain logistics distribution center

The evaluation and selection of cold chain logistics distribution center (CCLDC) possesses important strategic significance for enterprises to optimize logistics network. This paper firstly introduces an innovative uncertain information representation model called cubic Fermatean fuzzy set (CCFS) by integrating the cubic fuzzy set (CFS) and Fermatean fuzzy set (FFS) to portray the complicated indeterminacy and inaccuracy information. To begin with, the definition, score and accuracy functions, comparison laws, and generalized distance measure of CFFS are all defined successively. Then, based upon the defined Aczel-Alsina operations of CFFS, several cubic Fermatean fuzzy Aczel-Alsina aggregation operators are presented to flexibly integrate the cubic Fermatean fuzzy information, as well as some elegant properties of those operators are investigated at length. Again, two weight identification models are introduced based upon the defined score function and distance measure to calculate the weight of experts and criteria. In addition, an extended measurement alternatives and ranking based on the compromise solution (MARCOS) method by means of the presented operators, score function, and distance measure is brought forward within cubic Fermatean fuzzy circumstance. Consequently, an empirical study about the evaluation and selection of CCLDC is applied to demonstrate the efficacy and practicability of the presented method. Moreover, the comparative study and sensibility analysis are implemented to validate the rationality and superiority of the propounded method in addressing the problem of selecting the optimal CCLDC. The outcomes reflect that the developed approach provides a synthetic, robust and operable group decision framework for the evaluation and selection of CCLDC within an uncertain context.

Early warning system to predict energy prices: the role of artificial intelligence and machine learning.

The COVID-19 pandemic has inflicted the global economy and caused substantial financial losses. The energy sector was heavily affected and resulted in energy prices massively tumbling. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has fueled the energy maker more volatile. In such uncertain contexts, an Early Warning System (EWS) would efficiently contribute to stabilizing market swings. It will leverage the ability to control operating costs and pave the way for smooth economic recovery. Within this framework, we deploy Machine Learning (ML) models to forecast energy equity prices by employing uncertainty indices as a proxy for predicting energy market volatility. We empirically examine the comparative effectiveness of prevalent ML models and conventional approaches (regression) to forecast the energy equity prices by utilizing the daily data from 1/6/2011 to 18/1/2022 for four US uncertainty and eight energy equity indices. Results show that the Nonlinear Autoregressive with External (Exogenous) parameters (NARX) of Neural Networks (NN) scored significantly better accuracy than all other (25) ML models and conventional approaches. The study outcomes are beneficial for policymakers, governments, market regulators, investors, hedge and mutual funds, and corporations. They improve stakeholders' resilience to exogenous shocks, blaze the recovery path, and provide evidence-based for assets allocation strategies.

Uncertainties shaping parental educational decisions: The case of Syrian refugee children in Turkey

Around a million school-aged minors from Syria have been living in Turkey with temporary protection status over an unanticipated extended period. This prolonged temporariness leads to uncertainties and unpredictabilities for Syrian families regarding how long they will be staying in Turkey. Drawing on 17 interviews with Syrian mothers and 3 couples, this study examined the ways in which uncertainties shaped parental decisions on minors' education. The findings indicated that uncertainties played a key role in shaping the educational decisions of Syrian parents, particularly in their children's Turkish language acquisition and educational performance. This study not only fills the gap in understanding the effects of uncertainties in parental educational decisions emanated from a prolonged temporariness, but also argues that living in an uncertain context causes hurdles in language acquisition which has major educational and social consequences for children.

Multidisciplinary analysis of a mummy from the War of the Pacific.

The War of the Pacific (1879-1884) was a big scale war between Chile against the alliance of Peru and Bolivia. One of the most important battles, the "Batalla del Campo de la Alianza" was situated in the desert near Tacna, Peru. The conditions of this environment favored the conservation of the dead soldiers after many years. Decades ago, the Natural History Museum of Concepción in Chile, received a naturally mummified individual of a probably Chilean soldier as a donation; its uncertain context was never studied nor confirmed. Considering this, our investigation analyzed this body under exploratory methods, ballistic analysis, archaeological contrast, 14C radiocarbon dating, ancient DNA, and isotopic analysis to reconstruct the biological profile of this mummy. The results indicated that the mummy belongs to an adult man between 33-39 years of age (> 1.50 m) and has a perimortem wound in the left flank of the abdomen. CT scan and X-rays revealed the presence of a bullet (Comblain II or Gras) hosted near the L2 vertebra. It is possible that the individual died of bleeding from a gunshot wound done by a long-distance firearm projectile from an inferior level, whose trajectory was from left to right, with slight inclination towards the top, and without a projectile exit. Other analyses confirmed the historical context and suggests the Chilean origin of the mummy. Despite the passage of time and other factors, it was possible to reconstruct the death of this individual thanks to technology and approaches from different disciplines.

Management Control Systems and International Entrepreneurship in Small, Young Firms from Resource-Based Theory, Contingence, and Effectuation Approach Perspectives

This study analyses how entrepreneurs adapt or change international control management and organisation structures in response to their resources and capabilities and the context of the situation, from the resource-based theory (RBT) and contingency and effectuation framework approaches, taking the dynamism from knowledge-intensive services (KIS) into consideration. A multiple case study has been performed, based on semi-structured interviews with nine founders (entrepreneurs) of less-than 5-year-old international businesses who are actively involved in the management. All the interviews have been recorded, coded, and analysed through factsheets. The findings suggest that there is a relation between entrepreneurship and the characteristics of the entrepreneur; the character of owners or founders is key to embarking on this kind of business challenge. Furthermore, the age and nature of the manager—entrepreneur or non-entrepreneur—influence the business direction. This research analyses the role of the founder, owner, and/or management depending on the resources, capabilities, and uncertain contexts of the small, young firms. The age of the organisation’s and the degree of professionalism of the management’s impact on the management style and the use of control mechanisms are scarcely analysed yet, which could improve the relationships in MCS to achieve local and global control needs.

Toward a Typology of Co-emergence of New Firms and New Sectors

In this paper we aim to explore the phenomenon of emergence in uncertain contexts. Specifically, we focus on co-emergence of new firms and sectors. It is an area high importance to practitioners and policy makers, but at the same, less researched and understood. We analyzed, synthesized, and theorized this intersection across 16 inter-disciplinary research contexts. Constant theorizing and iteration identified strong and weak emergence as key properties of emergence that can explain most of the co-emergence between new ventures and sectors. We employed typology construction by reduction to develop the typology of co-emergence by cross-tabulating weak and strong emergence of new sectors and ventures. This led to identification of four types of co-emergence: benign, supervenient, radical and nominal. These four types are the focus of the paper. Implications for academia, practice and polity conclude the paper.

Temporal Structuring in Sensemaking – How an Entrepreneurial Team Deals with Radical Uncertainty

Understanding ways in which teams and organizations manage, negotiate and navigate uncertain futures is paramount, as high uncertainty can significantly harm employee and volunteer engagement. Recently, scholars have taken a keen interest in exploring collective sensemaking in uncertain contexts. Previous studies have examined how teams restore action after disruptive events and retrospectively make sense of the disruptions. However, the strategies teams utilize to deal with dynamic uncertainty “on the ground” have been largely missing. In this study, we examined team-level sensemaking during high uncertainty. We identified three strategies of temporal structuring that helped the team cope with and tame the uncertainty that could cripple their organizing efforts: (1) freezing the future (2) bracketing the future and (3) abstracting the future. Our study contributes to the literature on sensemaking and uncertainty by demonstrating the significance of temporal structuring as a way of moving forward and dealing with uncertainty as well as mitigating the potentially paralyzing effect of radical uncertainty. In addition, our study contributes to the literature on prospective and temporal sensemaking by focusing on the present-future connection and showing how a team constructs sensemaking anchors in the future rather than retrospectively in the past.

Indirect Trust Building: Third Parties, Uncertainty, Trust and Collaboration in Innovation Networks

In this study, we examine the trust transferring practices of network managers dealing with the challenges brought by the uncertain context of innovation networks. With a qualitative inquiry of 23 network managers and 20 network members, we investigate how network managers deal with three kinds of uncertainty challenges by relying on trust transfer to support knowledge sharing and collaboration. Our findings show that third parties mainly face contextual, expectational, and relational uncertainty challenges. Next to the dyadic ties between the managers and respective members, we identify referring, encountering, and mobilizing networking tools as essential trust transferring practices network managers use to deal with the uncertainty challenges. This study opens new avenues for indirect trust building as part of triad or collective trust, the concept of third-party facilitated trust transfer, and the recursive interplay between trust and perceived uncertainty challenges.

Quality and asset management: conceptual compatibility towards sustainable infrastructures management

Asset management has been gaining momentum in both academic and industry, but is it so distinct from other existing management philosophies? This research effort discusses the relation between asset and quality management, particularly for organizations managing (public) infrastructures, to highlight the similarities and differences between both and their role towards sustainable infrastructure development. The compatibility matrix developed demonstrates that, in conceptual terms, asset and quality management are highly similar in the scope of these organizations. As such, organizations implementing formal and certified asset management systems should assess the existing processes to avoid overlaps and make the best use of the experience accumulated. It also proposed the balance between performance and risk as the metric to measure the quality (or value, adopting the asset management concept) of management decisions. The growing recognition that infrastructures exist in highly complex uncertain contexts requires changing management decisions from choosing the options with the highest expected outcome to the options with the best balance between expected outcome and potential variability of the outcome. Finally, considering sustainability as the ultimate goal, the relation between quality and asset management is linked to the need for integrated infrastructure management by analysing sustainable mobility versus sustainable transport infrastructures.

The resilience of researchers from the perspective of sustainability in times of a pandemic

The purpose of the article is to understand the importance of resilient attitudes in the course of drafting, developing, and completing research projects related to academic processes of graduate students. Considering, however, that allhumanity and all systems were affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, the role of science deserves to be highlighted, once it was daily required to seek solutions to face the virus, as well as to point towards ways of minimizing its effects. Thus, research centers were heavily demanded and had to put resilience into practice in the daily routine of research. Therefore, in the context of the dynamics in the context of the transdisciplinary dynamics, research data were generated through a semi-structured interview, through which 7 (seven) student researchers, linked to twohigher education institutions in the Federal District - Brasília, were interviewed. Accordingly, the objective was, through content analysis, to identify the actions students relied upon to remain resilient in their training processes, aswell as the initiatives that revealed a component of resilience in research projects that could provide greater sustainability. Then, the analytical perception, through the research results, allowed us to perceive that “research” is one of the ways to make students feel like protagonists and create favorable conditions to move forward in terms of knowledge. The search for answers to research problems, by researchers, goes beyond their competences in the cognitive dimension, also involving the intuitive, emotional, and spiritual dimensions. Thus, academic contexts are favorable spaces for the development and practice of resilience. Therefore, mediators should be careful so they can face the setbacks arising from the research process together. On the other hand, research students managed to successfully complete their research journey and move forward in their knowledge construction processes, because they practiced resilience.
 This is because resilient people remain productive, even in the midst of vulnerable and uncertain contexts. And theycan stay focused, carry out the activities that must be done, and know how to take advantage of the time and circumstances in favor of their goals.
 In this sense, it is perceived that resilient people always find possibilities, hitherto unimagined, to transform the emerging problem into an opportunity because they linked their personal project to anacademic-social dimension, thus demarcating its concern for sustainability. Healthy resilient attitudes are necessary in order to achieve this as research projects are drafted, developed, and completed, a fact that became more evident because the researchers had a transdisciplinary perception of life and academic projects. Finally, the engagement with transdisciplinary projects whose references were existential plenitude and social sustainability strengthened resilience, put into practice as adaptation and growth, both internally (personally) and externally (socially).

A DEMATEL-Based Method for Linguistic Multiple Attributes Group Decision Making Using Strict t-Norms and t-Conorms

To evaluate fuzzy information precisely, researchers and practitioners are apt to use linguistic variables to model vague or uncertain contexts in natural language. In this paper, some new operation laws for continuous linguistic terms using strict t-norms and t-conorms are defined. Significantly, these operation laws have some desirable properties and are closed on the restricted continuous linguistic term set. On the basis of these new linguistic operation laws, a series of triangular t-(co)norm-based linguistic generalized power geometric operators are developed. In order to consider the interactive influence and interrelationship of decision makers (DMs) and attributes, a decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL)-based method for linguistic multiple attributes group decision making (MAGDM) is proposed. In the method, the weighting information for DMs and attributes are dependent on the initial direct-relation matrices among DMs and attributes, respectively. Finally, a numerical example is provided. In comparison with the existing methods, two aspects of the DEMATEL-based method for linguistic MAGDM in the work can be highlighted: the underlying operators for linguistic terms using strict t-norms and t-conorms that are closed on the set of the restricted continuous linguistic term set; and the techniques in determining the weighting information, with which the weighting information for DMs and attributes are determined by the interactive influence and interrelationship among DMs or attributes.

A Rubric to Evaluate Critical Science Education for Sustainability

Social and environmental problems are increasing, as is the urgency that they be addressed in educational institutions to form critical, responsible and active citizens. In this training process, the dialogue between science education and education for sustainability is crucial if we want to understand socio-environmental problems in complex and uncertain contexts, which is why we define Critical Science Education for Sustainability (CSES). In addition to reflecting on which contents and methodologies are most appropriate in CSES, it is also necessary to reflect on the development of assessment instruments that allow diagnosing and evaluating the practice, materials and educational activities from such a perspective. Only with an appropriate instrument and suitable diagnosis can we make decisions to transform education and move towards CSES. This article presents an investigation based on the Delphi method with the participation of 37 international researchers, which resulted in a rubric, the Science, Technology and Society Assessment Tool. A rubric is a kind of evaluation tool that can assess education programs using qualitative or quantitative descriptors. This rubric is meant to analyze and guide critical science education in the context of teaching, policies and educational programs that favor sustainability.

Editorial introductions.

Editorial introductions.

Feature selection based on discriminative power under uncertainty for computer vision applications

Feature selection is a prolific research field, which has been widely studied in the last decades and has been successfully applied to numerous computer vision systems. It mainly aims to reduce the dimensionality and thus the system complexity. Features have not the same importance within the different classes. Some of them perform for class representation while others perform for class separation. In this paper, a new feature selection method based on discriminative power is proposed to select the relevant features under an uncertain framework, where the uncertainty is expressed through a possibility distribution. In an uncertain context, our method shows its ability to select features that can represent and discriminate between classes.

Evidence for non-selective response inhibition in uncertain contexts revealed by combined meta-analysis and Bayesian analysis of fMRI data

Response inhibition is typically considered a brain mechanism selectively triggered by particular “inhibitory” stimuli or events. Based on recent research, an alternative non-selective mechanism was proposed by several authors. Presumably, the inhibitory brain activity may be triggered not only by the presentation of “inhibitory” stimuli but also by any imperative stimuli, including Go stimuli, when the context is uncertain. Earlier support for this notion was mainly based on the absence of a significant difference between neural activity evoked by equiprobable Go and NoGo stimuli. Equiprobable Go/NoGo design with a simple response time task limits potential confounds between response inhibition and accompanying cognitive processes while not preventing prepotent automaticity. However, previous neuroimaging studies used classical null hypothesis significance testing, making it impossible to accept the null hypothesis. Therefore, the current research aimed to provide evidence for the practical equivalence of neuronal activity in the Go and NoGo trials using Bayesian analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Thirty-four healthy participants performed a cued Go/NoGo task with an equiprobable presentation of Go and NoGo stimuli. To independently localize brain areas associated with response inhibition in similar experimental conditions, we performed a meta-analysis of fMRI studies using equal-probability Go/NoGo tasks. As a result, we observed overlap between response inhibition areas and areas that demonstrate the practical equivalence of neuronal activity located in the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, parietal cortex, premotor cortex, and left inferior frontal gyrus. Thus, obtained results favour the existence of non-selective response inhibition, which can act in settings of contextual uncertainty induced by the equal probability of Go and NoGo stimuli.

How to feed a culturally sustainable development plan over time: evidence from the Tuscan Mining UNESCO Global Geopark

PurposeThis research explores the community's role in feeding a culturally sustainable development project over time and the practices which operationally allow the bridging of cultural heritage management and sustainable development according to the approach of “culture as sustainability”.Design/methodology/approachThe primary and secondary sources relate to nearly 20 years of life of the Tuscan Mining Geopark case belonging to the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) European and Global Geopark Networks. Textual analysis was applied to the dataset. The interpretative approach was aligned with other investigations within this research field.FindingsThe results highlight how a bold project in an uncertain context harnessed bottom-up mobilisation and accountability to stimulate a sustainable community empowerment. The ability to experiment and learn from experience depicts an organisational logic far from the top-down and predefined design practice widely contested in the literature.Research limitations/implicationsDespite a single case study was analysed, it enables researchers to craft a conceptual model for culturally sustainable development projects, and it fills the literature gap on how to operationalise culture as sustainability under the managerial perspective.Practical implicationsThe model assembles an organisational process view and practices that can be tailored to a cultural context with insights for developing culturally sustainable projects.Originality/valueThe research increases the observations of community empowerment within culturally sustainable development projects. It demonstrates how the “incompleteness of the design” was not a weakness but rather a trigger of effective organisational practices.

Identity leadership, procedural justice, and group identification in uncertain organizational contexts

AbstractIdentity leadership helps group members both to reduce their subjective uncertainty about what to think and how to behave and to obtain a positive social identity. In organizations, procedural justice too supports group members' positive social identity. According to the Uncertainty Identity theory, in uncertain contexts, the motivation to reduce subjective uncertainty takes precedence over the motivation to obtain a positive social identity in driving group identification. The paper tests the hypothesis that, among the most uncertain workers, identity leadership interacts negatively with procedural justice in their association with group identification. By means of three correlational studies carried out in real organizational contexts, the paper examines different types of experienced uncertainty: the uncertainty stemming from a merger (Study 1, N = 152); the broader uncertainty due to market instability and fast technological changes (Study 2, N = 382); the uncertainty related to the frequency of computer‐mediated communication (Study 3, N = 209). Results consistently show that, among the participants who feel the highest uncertainty in their working conditions and the participants who interact using computer‐mediated communication at the highest frequency, the association between group identification and procedural justice becomes weaker as identity leadership increases. Those results highlight the risk that in uncertain contexts, group members keep identifying with their group even in the face of procedural injustice if they perceive their leader as an identity leader. Thus the paper illuminates a condition where identity leadership may lead group members to tolerate and even support toxic environments.

Decision support for emergency road traffic management in post-earthquake conditions

Road network systems play a critical role in the emergency phase following an earthquake, since they constitute the main vector of transportation of rescue teams, first-aid responders or victims in need of evacuation. While several studies have focused on how to organize multi-agent travels via a traffic plan, the present work focuses on how to immediately help first-aid responders, at a moment when the actual damage state of the road network is still mostly unknown. Therefore, in such an uncertain context, a probabilistic framework is used in order to evaluate the failure probability of exposed road components and the accessibility probability between two locations of the network, via a decomposition into minimum link sets. Such data is then used to extract relevant indicators for each potential travel itinerary, such as the expected travel time (accounting for potential disruptions along the route and the need to use a back-up itinerary) or the reliability of the itinerary and its back-ups. Given predefined road user profiles, with different weightings of indicator preferences, the various travel options may be evaluated in a decision matrix in order to assist the choice of the most adequate itinerary. Finally, such as decision support system is demonstrated on a road network in the Pyrenees mountain range (France), where several travel options (i.e., fastest or safest routes from the damaged area to nearby hospitals, or from rescue centres to the damage area) are evaluated for a few earthquake scenarios and characteristic user profiles.

Decision-making in uncertain contexts: The role of autonomic markers in resolving indecision

Although impulsivity is associated with an increased willingness to make risky decisions, uncertainty intolerance may also contribute to maladaptive decision-making behavior, where individuals neglect to pursue potential rewards even when probabilities for success are in their favor. Several theories have sought to explain the neural systems that guide decision-making in this context, with evidence supporting a role for increased sympathetic activation. However, it remains unclear whether the sympathetic system is associated with greater apprehension in response to uncertain outcomes, or whether it serves to guide behavioral decisions in the context of this uncertainty. Furthermore, although postulated as a within-person process, most research has examined the association between decision behavior and sympathetic activation at the between-person level. We hypothesize that in the context of uncertainty between-person differences in skin conductance will be associated with longer deliberation times; whereas within-person trial-level increases in skin conductance will be associated with a tendency to reject uncertain options. Data were collected from n = 56 children aged 7–11 years, using a computerized card game in which children chose to accept or reject cards of varying point value at varying levels of probability. Skin conductance level (SCL) was recorded throughout the task. No significant between-person associations emerged. However, within-person analyses indicated that momentary deliberation time moderated the association between momentary skin-conductance and decision outcome. This moderation was such that for trials during which the individual deliberated longer (i.e., was more indecisive), a concurrent increase in skin conductance was associated with a significantly higher likelihood of rejecting the card. The within-person nature of these results suggests that skin conductance may help in resolving indecision in the context of uncertainty.