Uncertain Changes Research Articles

Towards Sustainable Water Resources Management Considering Climate Change in the Case of Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is one of the most water-scarce nations in the world, with a huge demand-supply gap, and the situation is expected to worsen due to climate change. Conventional surface water resources are limited, while nonrenewable groundwater sources are depleted. To build a more resilient and sustainable water sector, the production of non-conventional water resources, specifically desalinated seawater and treated domestic wastewater, has steadily increased in recent years. As the country lacks perennial water resources, such as rivers or water bodies, it relies mainly on nonrenewable groundwater and desalinated water to meet its daily requirements. Although the government is attempting to regulate the agricultural sector, water consumption in agriculture remains relatively high. It presents an environmental challenge due to its heavy reliance on non-renewable groundwater resources. The anticipated increase in temperature and highly uncertain changes in the rainfall patterns in Saudi Arabia could lead to greater uncertainty when attempting to develop effective water resource management plans. In this work, we review the status of the present and future of water resources and the challenges local authorities face in managing water resources amidst a changing climate in Saudi Arabia. This study employed a narrative research methodology, utilizing various databases, including Scopus, Web of Science, and Science Direct, to extract relevant articles within the subject area. This study proposes a number of recommendations and conclusions aimed at improving decision-makers’ ability to adapt to and mitigate the anticipated adverse impacts of climate change to manage scarce water resources sustainably.

Generalized multi-agent competitive reinforcement learning with differential augmentation

Observation generalization in multi-agent reinforcement learning is essential for real-world applications as it enables agents to formulate effective policies to deal with environmental uncertainty. However, most existing studies seldom consider the generalization ability of agents in competitive scenarios, which is not in line with the actual process of intelligent groups in real applications. We propose a generalized multi-agent reinforcement learning framework (GMARL) by incorporating the data augmentation mechanism of differential privacy, which enhances the agent’s adaptability and improves the model’s stability. Specifically, we introduce a Laplacian mechanism with temporary adjacency sensitivity into the training and add an observation supplement to the agent’s input. Under this mechanism, the agent intelligently considers the environment fluctuation, thus guarding against the adverse effects of the uncertain changes in the environment states. We show the rigorous guarantee of the difference balance between the observation supplement and the original data, and propose a series of variants upon the GMARL framework. Extensive experimental results on five benchmark multi-agent competitive environments against with five state-of-the-art algorithms validate the effectiveness and robustness of our proposed method.

Improved reinforcement learning-based real-time energy scheduling for prosumer with elastic loads in smart grid

In this study, we investigate the dynamic energy-scheduling problem of a prosumer (producer/consumer) with an energy storage device (EDS) and elastic loads. The goal is to develop efficient real-time scheduling strategies for prosumers, and to minimise their total long-term costs (i.e. cost of energy purchased from the external grid and depreciation cost of the EDS). The challenges are twofold: the uncertainty of the energy output of the prosumer and the time-coupling constraints of the EDS and elastic loads. To address these challenges, we first describe the dynamic energy-scheduling problem as a Markov decision process. Then, an approximate state dual-agent Q-learning algorithm is proposed to solve the optimal dynamic scheduling problem by improving the model-free reinforcement learning(RL) method. Compared with the traditional RL method, the proposed algorithm reduces the system-state dimensions and exhibits improved performance. The proposed algorithm can only be assisted by mutual interactions between the environment with a reward feedback mechanism to dynamically respond to uncertain changes in the environments, without modelling or predicting the system environments. Finally, extensive empirical evaluations using real-world traces are conducted to study the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. The results show that the proposed algorithm can reduce the total cost of the prosumer by up to 6.3%, 11.7% and 22.4% compared with the traditional RL method, Lyapunov optimisation and greedy algorithm, respectively.

Fleeting fields of Zadar (Croatia): characterizing millennial-scale urban landcover change, green space, and resilience into the twenty first century

Cities are a growing factor in global change today, but urbanization as a process has played a significant role in shaping our planet’s environments for millennia. Exploring the longevity or persistence of cityscapes can therefore reveal qualities that may have strengthened urban sustainability or resilience over long periods. In the Mediterranean, many ancient cities lie in ruin and are fully formed archaeological sites, while others reflect continuous growth and expansion into the modern era, often replacing what has traditionally been a rural mosaic of green space with a more homogenized urban landcover. Green spaces like cultivated lands, urban forests, recreational parks, and green belts are essential components of urban resilience, as they build adaptive capacity by improving human health and livelihoods, reducing surface runoff and erosion, and mitigating urban heat island effects, among others. Protection of green space in urban and peri-urban contexts also offers greater capacity to transform in the face of uncertain change. This paper centers on the ancient city of Zadar along Croatia’s Adriatic coast to characterize broad millennial-scale changes in urban landcover and green space. The results suggest that the distribution of urban landcover and green space appears to have been fairly stable for much of Zadar’s 3,000-year history, which arguably played a significant role in its persistence into the present era. However, the pace and scale of urban development, as well as the corresponding losses of green space, have accelerated from the mid-twentieth century onward, depleting a major source of socioecological resilience that has benefitted the city since the Iron Age. Archaeological and historical fields of study provide a deep temporal context to these contemporary challenges and are well-suited to identify and promote the locally and historically distinctive character of surviving green spaces. Land use legacies stemming from Roman surveying and historic field clearance practices around Zadar have resulted in one of the most distinctive and well-preserved physical manifestations of ancient and historic land use in the Mediterranean. Recognition of their cultural significance, even in their diminished state, would add further value for their protection and continued capacity toward urban resilience in the next century.

A dynamic evaluation method for slope safety with monitoring information based on a hybrid intelligence algorithm

The variability of soil or rock parameters based on poor information results in an uncertain change in slope failure probability. To solve the negative impact of slope reliability analysis introduced by variability of soil or rock parameters, this article proposes a hybrid intelligence algorithm for analyzing the slope failure probability with Bayes theorem, integrating a one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D-CNN), and executing Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation with multidepth displacements. We calculate the failure probability through 1D-CNN prediction. The 1D-CNN learns from data generated by numerical models to directly relate input variables to output variables toward obtaining an accurate model of the response surface. The resulting soil or rock parameters are described as probability distributions, which are updated by MCMC simulations based on the multidepth displacement time series. A case study with monitoring displacement along the slope depth is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of our proposed methodology. We find that our method can update the failure probability value and identify the location of potential sliding surfaces with the time series of multidepth displacement. We also find that incorporating changes in Poisson's ratio and elastic modulus seems to have a significant influence on the slope safety evaluation.

The Pengaruh Pemberian Pupuk Bokashi Feses Ayam Broiler Dan NPK Terhadap Pertumbuhan Dan Hasil Tanaman Sawi Caisim (Brassica Juncea L.)

Mustard plant (Brassica juncea L.) as one of the horticultural plant species from the Brassicaceae family which has great potential to be cultivated in Indonesia. The productivity of mustard greens has decreased due to several factors, one of which is the insufficient nutrients needed by plants during the vegetative and generative stages of the plant. In addition, the factors that affect the cultivation of mustard plants are declining soil quality, uncertain climate change, and attacks by plant-disturbing organisms (OPT). With this problem, it is necessary to add nutrients to the soil, the added nutrients are organic fertilizer bokashi broiler chicken feces and inorganic fertilizer NPK. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of the interaction between broiler feces bokashi fertilizer and NPK fertilizer on the growth and yield of caisim mustard plants. The research method used a completely randomized design (CRD) which consisted of 2 factors with 3 replications. The first factor of bokashi fertilizer consists of 3 levels, namely B1: 25 grams/polybag; B2: 30grams/poly bag; B3 : 35 gram/poly bag. The second factor is NPK fertilizer which consists of 3 levels, namely N1: 0.63 gram/polybag; N2: 0.47 gram/poly bag; N3: 0.31 gram/poly bag. The data obtained was analyzed using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), and if it was significantly different, it would be further tested by Duncan's Multiple Range Test or Duncan's Multiple Range Test (DMRT) with a 95% confidence level. The results showed (1) the interaction of broiler feces bokashi fertilizer and NPK fertilizer showed a significant difference in plant height and plant fresh weight variables and other variables showed no significant different effect. (2) Broiler faeces bokashi single fertilizer treatment gave significantly different results on root length and plant fresh weight variables with the best dose being B3 : 35 gram. (3) the single fertilizer treatment gave highly significant different results on the number of leaves variable and not significantly different on the growth rate variable and chlorophyll content variable with the best dosage being N3: 031 gram.

How Should Diverse Stakeholder Interests Shape Evaluations of Complex Water Resources Systems Robustness When Confronting Deeply Uncertain Changes?

AbstractRobustness analysis can support the design and operation of large‐scale water infrastructure projects confronting deeply uncertain futures. However, diverse actors, contextual specificities, sectoral interests, and risk attitudes make it difficult to identify an appropriate robustness metric to rank decision alternatives under deep uncertainty. Here, we clarify how methodological choices affect robustness evaluation using the multi‐actor, multi‐sector Inchampalli‐Nagarjuna Sagar water transfer megaproject in Southern India. We compare a suite of water transfer strategies discovered using evolutionary multi‐objective direct policy search (EMODPS), a strategy proposed by regional authorities and the status quo of no water transfer. We stress‐test these strategies across scenarios that capture climatic and socioeconomic uncertainties and rank them using robustness metrics representing sectoral perspectives and priorities of different actors with varying risk attitudes. Results show a considerable impact of metric choices on robustness rankings of strategies, with compromise solution discovered via EMODPS as robust. The no‐transfer strategy results in the worst water supply robustness with an average volumetric deficit of 17% of total historical demands but emerges as a robust alternative for 6 out of 12 combinations of actor‐sectors with high risk aversion. Also, changes in the amplitude of the Indian Summer Monsoon is identified as the most important uncertain factor determining the failure of strategies. Our findings highlight that the selection of robust solutions should be guided by an understanding of how assumed risk attitudes shape stakeholders' perceptions of vulnerabilities. These findings are generalizable to large infrastructure projects with diverse stakeholders and multisectoral impacts.

Towards diverse agricultural land uses: socio-ecological implications of European agricultural pathways for a Swiss orchard region

Diverse agricultural land uses are a typical feature of multifunctional landscapes. The uncertain change in the drivers of global land use, such as climate, market and policy technology and demography, challenges the long-term management of agricultural diversification. As these global drivers also affect smaller scales, it is important to capture the traits of regionally specific farm activities to facilitate adaptation to change. By downscaling European shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for agricultural and food systems, combined with representative concentration pathways (RCP) to regionally specific, alternative socioeconomic and climate scenarios, the present study explores the major impacts of the drivers of global land use on regional agriculture by simulating farm-level decisions and identifies the socio-ecological implications for promoting diverse agricultural landscapes in 2050. A hilly orchard region in northern Switzerland was chosen as a case study to represent the multifunctional nature of Swiss agriculture. Results show that the different regionalised pathways lead to contrasting impacts on orchard meadows, production levels and biodiversity. Increased financial support for ecological measures, adequate farm labour supplies for more labour-intensive farming and consumer preferences that favour local farm produce can offset the negative impacts of climate change and commodity prices and contribute to agricultural diversification and farmland biodiversity. However, these conditions also caused a significant decline in farm production levels. This study suggests that considering a broader set of land use drivers beyond direct payments, while acknowledging potential trade-offs and diverse impacts across different farm types, is required to effectively manage and sustain diversified agricultural landscapes in the long run.

Orientasi Pembelajaran Bahasa Indonesia pada Era VUCA

The purpose of this research is to describe the use of the Problem Based Learning model in Indonesian Language Learning in the Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity (VUCA) era. VUCA is a condition that shows rapid, unpredictable, uncertain, complex, and unpredictable changes in various fields, especially education. In this study used the method of literature study. The data analysis techniques used were (1) Examining VUCA and its possible problems and solutions in learning Indonesian, (2) Examining various components in learning Indonesian that might be a solution to the problems encountered in learning Indonesian, (3) Determine components that have great opportunities as solutions to overcome problems in the VUCA era, namely learning models because in the use of learning models other learning components can be integrated. (4) Synchronization between the characteristics of the problems that might arise in the VUCA era, general learning principles (scientific approach), specific principles of Indonesian language learning (genre-based approaches, genre pedagogy, and Content Language Integrated Learning -CLIL), use of ICT, HR demands XXI century, character that must be built or internalized, and independent learning, and (5) Designing synchronization results in the form of material content and activities to be carried out in PBL steps. The results of the research are in the form of a PBL model design in Indonesian language learning in the VUCA era that collaborates and integrates general learning principles, Indonesian language learning principles, the demands of 21st century human resources, ICT, the character that students must have, independent learning in PBL steps to achieve learning objectives that have been set.

Europeanisation and Its Impact on Candidate Countries for EU Membership: A View from Ukraine

Background: The nature of the European Union (EU) as a global actor has long been the subject of diverse academic debates. Proponents of an understanding of the EU as a normative force believe that its greatest transformative power lies not in coercion but in a policy of enlargement that allows the EU to stimulate reforms in the candidate countries of the Central and Eastern European region, despite the crisis of enlargement. The aim of the article is to study the impact of the Europeanisation process on the legal systems of member states and candidate countries, in particular Ukraine, as well as the formulation of proposals for national institutions regarding the perception of the ‘Europeanisation’ impact of EU law on the legal system of Ukraine. Methods: The methodological basis of the work is interdisciplinary and comprehensive approaches. The interdisciplinary approach is based on the application of theoretical developments in jurisprudence, philosophy, political science, and the theory of international relations, which make it possible to study the process of Europeanisation in relation to member states and candidate countries as fully and comprehensively as possible. The comprehensive approach is aimed at identifying the multifaceted and multifactorial ontological determinants of the Europeanisation process of legal systems. These approaches determined the choice of appropriate general theoretical and special scientific methods: hermeneutic, dialectical, analysis, synthesis, etc. Results and Conclusions: As a result of the study of the political will, capacity, and legitimacy of the EU to defend the values proclaimed in the founding treaties, in cases of violations of the regulations of the EU law by the member states, the authors come to the conclusion that the EU may face negative consequences due to the display of democratic reformist coalitions in individual member states (Poland and Hungary ), as well as due to favouring (authoritarian) stability over uncertain (democratic) change. Concession to candidate countries for EU accession in terms of the fulfilment of the Copenhagen criteria in exchange for satisfying the interests of leading member states may undermine the credibility of the project of building a European identity based on the common values of the EU, as well as the loss of the reputation of the normative power of the European Union. Accelerating the process of Ukraine’s accession to the EU, which is connected with Ukraine’s acquisition of the status of a candidate for accession to the EU, requires the Europeanisation of the domestic legal culture as a prerequisite for the modernisation of all other elements of the legal system. This, in turn, implies the completion of the process of de-Russification of legal science and education, the development and approval of the Legal Education Development Program, and the modernisation of legal terminology.

Effect of wet – dry cycles on CBR value and grain size distribution particle on compacted residual tuff soil

Uncertain climate change is a natural phenomenon that is common nowadays. Soil is the result of weathering of rocks and climate change is one of the causes of this weathering. Residual soil is soil formed on top of the original rock layer. In addition to the parent rock, climate change also affects the residual soil, both in terms of grain size and shear strength. This climate change modeling was carried out by giving wet-dry treatment on residual tuff soil samples at the Institut Teknologi Sumatera (ITERA) which were compacted with a wet-dry cycle of 2 cycles, 4 cycles, 6 cycles, 8 cycles, and 10 cycles. From this treatment, it will be seen the change in gradation and the magnitude of the CBR value. The change in grain gradation is obtained which is calculated based on the concept of grain breakage, namely the Br value in each cycle of 15.89%; 21.51%; 25.35%; 32.01%; 36.28%. For the CBR values obtained for the initial conditions and each cycle are 50.74%, 40.34%; 29.763%; 25.16%; 22.825%; 20.580%. These results indicate that the longer the cycle occurs in the soil, the greater the change in grain gradation and the CBR value of the residual tuff soil. For this reason, the wet-dry process needs to be considered for the use of residual tuff soil as the subgrade of the road pavement.

Developing solutions roadmaps for rice production in flooding area of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta adapting to uncertain changes in climate and surface water resources

Climate change, hydro-power dams and socio-economic development in the upper Mekong River, have caused changes in surface water resources and agricultural transformation in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). It is unpredictable and influences decision-making processes on water resource management. This study aims at applying the DAPP (Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways) approach to develop solution roadmaps supporting rice production in the Mekong Delta projection to 2030 under the context of uncertain changes on surface water resources. Data were collected from local officers, farmers, experts at Can Tho University, Technical University Delft, and Utrecht University using semi-structured interview techniques including workshops, group discussions, and in-depth interviews. The consolidated solutions from stakeholder’s opinions were evaluated at different socio-economic and environmental dimensions, specially focused on the time of tipping point of each solution. The study results show that two solution roadmaps were developed as sample scenarios to promote rice production in the upper area of the VMD. The determination of the solutions roadmaps based on the agreement of the stakeholders, which is a new feature of this approach in linking many stakeholders for the general development of the region. The DAPP approach could be suitable to support decision-making on surface water resources management in the context of uncertain changes. Therefore, further studies can apply this approach to other regions in the VMD which will support to reinforce and demonstrate the applicability of the DAPP approach on supporting decision-making in the face of increasingly uncertain changes in the VMD.

Study on the Habits among Adolescents of Government Secondary School students in Aizawl City

The term adolescence originates from the Latin verb adolescere, which means to grow or mature, and refers to the phase of development that lies between childhood and adulthood. However, there is considerable disagreement about the precise beginning and end of this period, particularly in Western societies where it tends to be prolonged. For most people, adolescence is a transitional stage between childhood and adulthood that is characterized by gradual and uncertain changes. The boundaries between the two stages are often unclear, and the length of this phase varies from person to person. Despite this, most individuals eventually emerge from adolescence as mature, responsible, and creative adults. Essentially, adolescence serves as a bridge between childhood and adulthood, which individuals must cross in order to attain full adult status and all its associated privileges. One of the most insightful definitions of adolescence was offered by Sieg, who defined it as the period during which an individual begins to feel entitled to adult privileges that are not yet granted, and which ends when the individual is fully recognized as an adult by society and given full social status and power. This study aimed to investigate the study and extracurricular habits of government secondary school students. The results indicate that 49.56% of the students possess a high level of study habits, 45.65% exhibit an average level, and only 4.78% demonstrate poor study habits. Furthermore, 61.30% of the students fall within the average level of extracurricular habits, while 21.73% exhibit high levels and 17.39% exhibit poor levels of extracurricular habits. Overall, it can be concluded that the government secondary students in Aizawl demonstrate good study habits and average extracurricular habits.

Forest Health in the Southern Cone of America: State of the Art and Perspectives on Regional Efforts

The plantation and natural forests of South America have been highly impacted by native and exotic pests in recent decades. The interaction of emerging invasive pests, climate change, and timber markets will define the region’s forests, with significant but uncertain ecological changes and economic losses expected. The Southern Cone Forest Health Group (SCFHG), a joint ad hoc initiative run by forest health professionals from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay, aims to strengthen relationships between the forestry industry, stakeholders, academia, and government agencies across the region. Here, we highlight regional strengths, weaknesses, threats, and opportunities to address forest health issues in the region. A regional approach with a strong communication network is relevant for future actions. In the current global scenario of invasive species and climate change, the implementation of practices that incorporate the resilience of forest ecosystems and sustainable management needs to be prioritized in forest policy across the region. Understanding that pests and pathogens do not recognize borders, we call on governments and organizations to support joint actions with agreements and adequate resources to enhance our regional capabilities.

Resistance to change and organizational performance: a study of selected universities in South West, Nigeria

The study is on how change resistance affects university performance in South West, Nigeria. The study evaluated how passive, active, attachment and uncertainty change resistance affect organizational performance in the South West. The study surveyed 382 out of 8221 people. Descriptive analysis used mean and inter-item correlations, and hypotheses were tested using the Ordinal Linear-by-Linear Association model. Empirical studies demonstrated that passive change resistance affected organizational performance in higher education institutions in South West Nigeria. Active change resistance affected university performance in South West. Attachment change resistance and uncertain change resistance affected organizational performance in the South West. The report proposed that higher education institutions in Nigeria anticipate change and organization enablers as such culture, structure and people. If institutional reform is to go smoothly without resistance, its infrastructure must be improved.

The determinants of a resilient food system for Finland in the 2020s—three opinion polls for improvements based on a Delphi study among food system experts

Sudden shocks, disturbances, and changes in today’s and the future’s operating environment call for a more resilient food system. COVID-19 and Russia’s latest war in Ukraine have revealed that rapid shocks and disturbances in global social-ecological systems can affect societies and pose various risks to food security. The discussion of food security and especially food supply security under uncertain changes has therefore been highlighted. In this study, food system resilience and the driving forces and current trends affecting it were evaluated in an expert panel study. We used the Delphi technique for the data collection, which included several rounds of iterative evaluation of future food system development up to 2030. We analysed the results using cluster analysis. Based on the results, three clusters were identified which weigh different points within the development foci of food system resilience, namely: (1) the lack of efficient and consensual global crisis preparedness, (2) looking after domestic food production, and (3) trusting the current good efforts in resilience building. The key resilience determinants in each cluster and their importance analysis are presented. We also present enablers and barriers from techno-economic, politico-institutional, and socio-cognitive perspectives that hinder or support resilience building.

Hardware-accelerated Real-time Drift-awareness for Robust Deep Learning on Wireless RF Data

Proactive and intelligent management of network resource utilization (RU) using deep learning (DL) can significantly improve the efficiency and performance of the next generation of wireless networks. However, variations in wireless RU are often affected by uncertain events and change points due to the deviations of real data distribution from that of the original training data. Such deviations, which are known as dataset drifts, can subsequently lead to a shift in the corresponding decision boundary degrading the DL model prediction performance. To address these challenges, we present hardware-accelerated real-time radio frequency (RF) analytics and drift-awareness modules for robust DL predictions. We have prototyped the proposed design on a Zynq-7000 System-on-Chip that contains an FPGA and an embedded ARM processor. We have used Xilinx Vivado design suite for synthesis and analysis of the HDL design for the proposed solution. To detect dataset drifts, the proposed solution adopts a distance-based technique on FPGA to quantify in real-time the change between the prediction distribution obtained from DL predictions and data distribution of input streaming samples. Using various performance metrics, we have extensively evaluated the performance of the proposed solution and shown that it can significantly improve the DL model robustness in the presence of dataset drifts.

Territories in Transition: how social contexts influence wildland fire adaptive capacity in rural Northwestern European Mediterranean areas

BackgroundRural and semi-rural areas are complex and dynamic social-ecological systems, many of which have experienced profound impacts from wildland fires, particularly this decade. Under uncertain climate change conditions, these areas require new adaptive strategies to support landscape and community resilience. While these areas vary widely, some patterns of local social context have become apparent through wildland fire research. These patterns can help decision-makers better understand what influences communities’ abilities to adapt to fire. We focused our study on a northwestern European Mediterranean context, where communities are adapting to wildland fire and other climate change impacts through varied programs and policies. This area is composed of diverse landscapes, cultures, histories, languages and governance structures, but it also shares fire-based learning networks and collaborations, providing a sound indicator of shared elements of social context. Our study analyzed local social contexts in rural areas of Spain, Italy and France and assessed how these may inform adaptive capacity to wildland fire. A two-step process achieved this: (1) a targeted literature review of local social context elements as they relate to wildland fire in Mediterranean Europe; and (2) conducting semi-structured interviews with 20 key experts in rural Mediterranean areas, including fire managers, foresters, local administrators and technicians.ResultsResults illustrate numerous shared patterns in rural social contexts that influence local fire adaptive capacity. Dynamic local relationships among residents, local fire knowledge and environmental movements, the role of fire managers and administrators, and embeddedness in broader sociopolitical trends all interconnect to influence local fire adaptive capacity. Some key elements of context can act as primary enablers or barriers to this process, such as the presence (or lack) of local fire knowledge, and the opportunity (or lack thereof) for sustainable local economic development. Results also demonstrate high diversity in terms of governance structures and development trajectories.ConclusionsWe argue the need for deepened empirical transdisciplinary research to connect fire and land management tailored to local characteristics. Centering these local perspectives and diverse cultural values is necessary to foster long term adaptive wildland fire management strategies in rural Mediterranean communities and globally.

Practical considerations for adaptive strategies by US grazing land managers with a changing climate

AbstractWe outline practical considerations for grazing land adaptations with a changing climate, with an emphasis on the ranch operation scale and specific attention to directional climate changes and increased climate variability. These adaptive strategies fall into two themes: flexibility and learning under uncertainty. Ranches and livestock operations with greater land, social, or other capital resources may have more flexibility. Risk can be reduced for managers (ranchers, farmers, operators, and livestock managers) through participation in conservation or farm policy programs and/or market‐based approaches. Bolstering adaptive capacity across landscapes and time can originate from social capital of operators and strategic collaborations among managers and scientists. As climate diverges from historical baselines and the realm of managers’ experiential knowledge, new conceptual frameworks are needed to structure conversations, influence research relevancy and impact, and drive imaginative solutions among researchers, managers, and local communities for socio‐ecological systems. We provide simplified frameworks to help guide conversation, future research, and new imaginative solutions for systems‐scale knowledge needs and adaptation to address increasingly uncertain and complex change at multiple scales. Practical considerations for adaptive strategies by grazing land managers with a changing climate will be accelerated through (1) collaborative efforts among managers and explicitly with science–management partnerships becoming more mainstream, (2) co‐produced research with managers and researchers at ranch scales, (3) development of communities of practice and associated learning opportunities, and (4) continued co‐development and advancement of technologies and tools that result in high uptake adoption by ranch managers.

Optimal adaptation to uncertain climate change

Enormous public investment will occur as communities adapt to climate change. Much of this investment will be irreversible and the future benefits are uncertain. The real options embedded in adaptation projects are therefore potentially important and their existence needs to be incorporated into investment decision-making. Standard real options analysis is inadequate for this purpose because the arrival of new climate information is unlikely to conform to the stochastic processes typically used in real options analysis. This paper presents a new framework that reflects current uncertainty about climate change and how that uncertainty might change over time. Optimal investment depends on current beliefs regarding the severity of future climate change, how quickly these beliefs will change in the future, and current economic conditions. Most of the net benefits of optimal investment can be captured if investment timing is decided using a simple alternative decision-making rule.