Unbiased Decisions Research Articles

Анализ конкурентоспособности теплоэлектроцентралей на рынке электроэнергии и тепла

The competitiveness of the country’s economy depends primarily on the competitiveness of its industry, and, taking the climatic features into account, this economy indicator also depends to a significant degree on the cost of energy resources. The structures characterizing the consumption of electricity and heat in Russian Federation differ considerably from each other. The performed analysis shows that the fraction of electricity consumed by the population is about 14% (on the average over the country), whereas the fraction of heat consumed in the district heating system is about 40%. It should also be noted that the share of combined heat and power plants (CHPPs) in the generation of electricity is about 30%, whereas their share in the supply of heat in cities can reach 80%. Therefore, the question of posting the costs between the production of electricity and heat at power plants operating in the cogeneration mode is not only a technical, but also an important socio-economic matter. The article presents a methodological approach to analyzing the competitiveness of CHPPs in the market of electricity and heat taking into account the posting of fuel costs at power plants operating in the cogeneration mode. The importance and the necessity of using both thermodynamic and economic techniques is governed by the fact that, along with the need to compete in the markets of heat and electricity, CHPPs have to fight for the right to be included into the municipal heat supply development schemes, as well as into the electric power industry development schemes at the regional and federal levels. In view of the general requirements of making the Russian Federation economy more efficient and less energy intensive, poor fuel efficiency of production (useful output) of electric or thermal energy from a cogeneration plant may entail the need of its decommissioning. If we succeed in solving the problem of determining the conditions under which a CHPP operating in the cogeneration mode will be competitive concurrently in the fuel component with the best available technologies for separate generation of heat and electricity, we will be able to assess the competitiveness of the projects under consideration and to select the most promising options. The majority of methods for posting the fuel consumption at a power plant operating in the cogeneration mode between electricity and heat have been taken into account. This approach opens the possibility to make unbiased decisions on the feasibility of decommissioning CHPPs and constructing new power plants and boiler houses.

Biased and unbiased perceptual decision-making on vocal emotions

Perceptual decision-making on emotions involves gathering sensory information about the affective state of another person and forming a decision on the likelihood of a particular state. These perceptual decisions can be of varying complexity as determined by different contexts. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging and a region of interest approach to investigate the brain activation and functional connectivity behind two forms of perceptual decision-making. More complex unbiased decisions on affective voices recruited an extended bilateral network consisting of the posterior inferior frontal cortex, the orbitofrontal cortex, the amygdala, and voice-sensitive areas in the auditory cortex. Less complex biased decisions on affective voices distinctly recruited the right mid inferior frontal cortex, pointing to a functional distinction in this region following decisional requirements. Furthermore, task-induced neural connectivity revealed stronger connections between these frontal, auditory, and limbic regions during unbiased relative to biased decision-making on affective voices. Together, the data shows that different types of perceptual decision-making on auditory emotions have distinct patterns of activations and functional coupling that follow the decisional strategies and cognitive mechanisms involved during these perceptual decisions.

Data-driven decision making for supply chain networks with agent-based computational experiment

The complicated micro structures, macro emergences and dynamic evolutions in a supply chain network pose challenges to decision making for solving operational problems for the network's performance improvement. Most of these problems are complicated since various factors and their complicated relationships are involved. Success of this decision making relies on efficient business analytics based on the comprehensive and multi-dimensional data related to the static attributes and dynamic operations of the network. To confront the challenges, this paper proposes to explore a methodology of data-driven decision making for supply chain networks. In this methodology, a data-granularity model of a supply chain network is developed to standardize the data form for decision making. A four-dimensional-flow model of a supply chain network is proposed to satisfy the data requirements for decision making that are defined in the data-granularity model. Agent-based computational experiment is employed to support the generation of a comprehensive operational dataset of a supply chain network and to verify the solutions generated in decision making. Integrating these models, a data-driven decision-making framework for supply chain networks is proposed. In the framework, a new decision-making mode of “problem definition - business analytics - solution verification - parameter adjustment” is proposed. Oriented towards domain knowledge in supply chain networks, two approaches of business analytics—mapping analysis and correlation analysis—are presented. Finally, a case of a five-echelon manufacturing supply chain network is studied with the methodology. The findings indicate that the proposed methodology, models and framework are effective in supporting the data-centric decision making for solving complicated operational problems in supply chain networks and provide the networks’ managers or member enterprises with an effective tool to generate unbiased and efficient decisions for the networks’ performance improvement.

Distinguished Scholars Invited Essay: Are Secret Proceedings Why Longer Tenured Employees Trust Their Organizations Least?

We address the effects of secrecy in organizational policy enforcement. First, the legal literature that explains why court proceedings are open is summarized: openness more effectively holds decision makers and claimants accountable for truthfulness and unbiased decisions, demonstrates that the rich or powerful have not bought off the weak, supports adaptation to changing norms, and enhances the legitimacy of state authority. Next, we propose that when organizational policy enforcement is kept secret from other employees, organizations lose these benefits. One reflection of these loses will be lower employee trust in their organizations the longer their tenure there. Using questionnaire data from a large U.S. governmental agency, we found that lower employee trust with tenure is incrementally linearly lower over the course of employment, not the result of an early breach of the psychological contract. This occurs for employees at all hierarchical levels but is steepest for nonsupervisory employees, suggesting that employees lack information about policy enforcement may be driving this phenomenon.

A pollution fate and transport model application in a semi-arid region: Is some number better than no number?

Fate and transport models are powerful tools that aid authorities in making unbiased decisions for developing sustainable management strategies. Application of pollution fate and transport models in semi-arid regions has been challenging because of unique hydrological characteristics and limited data availability. Significant temporal and spatial variability in rainfall events, complex interactions between soil, vegetation and topography, and limited water quality and hydrological data due to insufficient monitoring network make it a difficult task to develop reliable models in semi-arid regions. The performances of these models govern the final use of the outcomes such as policy implementation, screening, economical analysis, etc. In this study, a deterministic distributed fate and transport model, SWAT, is applied in Lake Mogan Watershed, a semi-arid region dominated by dry agricultural practices, to estimate nutrient loads and to develop the water budget of the watershed. To minimize the discrepancy due to limited availability of historical water quality data extensive efforts were placed in collecting site-specific data for model inputs such as soil properties, agricultural practice information and land use. Moreover, calibration parameter ranges suggested in the literature are utilized during calibration in order to obtain more realistic representation of Lake Mogan Watershed in the model. Model performance is evaluated using comparisons of the measured data with 95%CI for the simulated data and comparison of unit pollution load estimations with those provided in the literature for similar catchments, in addition to commonly used evaluation criteria such as Nash-Sutcliffe simulation efficiency, coefficient of determination and percent bias. These evaluations demonstrated that even though the model prediction power is not high according to the commonly used model performance criteria, the calibrated model may provide useful information in the comparison of the effects of different management practices on diffuse pollution and water quality in Lake Mogan Watershed.

A probabilistic framework to justify allowable admixed chloride limits in concrete

Chloride induced corrosion in concrete is a well-known issue. Although numerous researchers have attempted to quantify the chloride threshold limits (CT) in different concrete systems (with little consensus), the issue of allowable admixed chlorides (CA) in concrete is still very much unresolved. For example, The CA limits specified by the American Concrete Institute (ACI) committees range from 0.06 to 1 percent by the weight of cement or cementitious materials. Similarly, the CA limits published by the State Highway Agencies in the U.S. vary significantly from one State to another (up to 9000 times difference). These significant differences and the variability in the published CA values can have significant economic and engineering risks. Therefore, it is essential that a standardized approach be developed to minimize these risks. The objective of the present study is to introduce a framework to remove subjectivity and variability in the decision-making process regarding CA. This paper provides a description of the development of the framework and economic assessment of selecting CA based on the first-order reliability method (FORM), spatial modeling techniques, and quantitative decision making tools. The proposed framework would help policy and decision makers realize the significant influence of CA on the corrosion of reinforcing steel in concrete and life-cycle cost of a project, and ultimately assisting them in making unbiased decisions that have scientific underpinnings.

Traditional fisheries enforcement program: A case of three coastal villages in the eastern part of Oman

This case study presented perceived views of surveyed fishers and enforcement officials on the efficacy of the existing enforcement programs of the artisanal fisheries sector of Oman. The criteria for evaluating enforcement efficacy were derived from the classical economic view of regulatory enforcement that emphasizes deterrence through legal sanctions - the actual practice in the fisheries sector of Oman. The consistency (or otherwise) in views expressed by both groups was identified using descriptive statistical measures. While some results were promising, the overall results did not provide strong support in rating the efficacy of the existing enforcement practices. An important caveat may apply to this conclusion due to the small number of respondents - fishers in particular - that may restrict the scientific generalization of the results. Nevertheless, the conclusion drawn from the findings may indeed be credible to an extent as it was based on the perceived views of all local enforcement officials, and more interestingly in most cases the perceived views were found to be similar to fishers. Given the existing operational challenges in relation to human and institutional capacity, and the inadequacy of financial and logistical resources, a hybrid approach to fisheries enforcement program was recommended and suggested for its evaluation. The management authority can move forward in this knowledge-building research of portraying enforcement reality through the replication of this study which may also help ensure validity of the results and thus make unbiased strategic decisions on fisheries law enforcement.

New Title VII Litigation in Disparate Impact Ex-Offender Employment Cases

Employers that refuse to hire ex-offenders can be liable under federal and state law if unable to properly assess hiring risk. Employers that refuse to hire ex-offenders on the basis of criminal background risk violating anti-discrimination laws and employers that hire ex-felons risk liability for negligent hiring. In light of the legal restrictions that demand employers make decisions about conflicting goals over the inclusion and exclusion of ex-offenders and the lack of guidance provided in making such decisions, risk-averse employers are not prepared to make unbiased employment decisions. Case law, legislation, and reforms that address conflicts related to ex-offender employment provide protections to employers and ex-offenders that can ease the tension between employer liability and ex-offender employability. Several federal and state programs provide rehabilitation, certificates of relief, bonding insurance, and other provisions limiting employer liability for negligent hiring suits that reduce employers’ risks when hiring ex-offenders. Similarly, the reduction of employer hiring risk effected by such federal and state programs also serve to remove an employer’s litigation defense for business necessity under Title VII of the Civil Rights Act. Not only do the employer protections provide employers with incentives to hire ex-offenders without fear of economic repercussion, but they also facilitate the enforcement of anti-discrimination laws by removing the viability of the employers’ best litigation defense - business necessity. The courts can decide on a motion for summary judgment that the employer has no business risk that justifies denial of employment when employer protections are sufficient to show that there is no additional risk incurred in hiring an ex-offender as compared to hiring an average person.Although various laws in different state jurisdictions offer different protections, many states fail to provide one or more of a full set of legal protections that would ultimately help to remove employment barriers, reduce employer risk, and provide avenues of successful Title VII litigation. The following programs and legislative proposals could help resolve the mutual problems faced by employers and ex-offenders alike:1) Certificates of Employability - issuing certificates certifying an ex-offender’s rehabilitation including job types for which an individual’s criminal background would present low risk and which complies with business necessity; 2) Bonding Program - using the Federal Bonding Program or state counterparts that insure employer monetary losses due to employee misconduct for the duration of a job; 3) Exclusionary Rule/Limited Liability - limiting employer liability for those employers that hire certified and bonded ex-offenders by excluding the criminal record at trial or by precluding negligent hiring suits; and 4) Updating Ban-the-Box - updating Ban-the-Box to restrict searching or questioning an applicant’s criminal background until a conditional job offer that offers employment pending the results of a criminal background check is made. An appropriate expert body such as a parole board could properly assess job risk and an ex-offender’s rehabilitation certificate can provide guidance to employers. Limited liability laws and insurance programs could protect employers from resulting consequences of employee misconduct. Such legal protections reduce business risk. Under current case law, employers that discriminate on the basis of criminal background would be subject to Title VII when refusing to hire individuals that pose no business risk. Any laws that reduce employer risk in hiring ex-offenders, also provide a higher risk of legal liability if an employer wrongfully discriminates. The proposed legal protections, therefore protect employers and ex-offenders alike and also provide for a new avenue of Title VII litigation.

Why the AVMA's Council on Education should be an independent entity.

Views: Commentary 599 F the past four years, I have opposed continued recognition of the AVMA’s Council on Education (COE) by the US Department of Education as the accreditation authority for colleges of veterinary medicine in the United States, provoking the ire of several colleagues and friends. I have taken this position even though I know and deeply respect the past four COE chairs, believe that they and other members of the COE have acted with the best of intentions, and value the service that they have provided through the voluntary commitment of their time and efforts to veterinary education. Nonetheless, I am convinced that an independent accrediting body is needed, given the obvious real and apparent conflicts of interest that are undermining confidence in the leadership and decisions of the COE. In my view, although the existing COE has served the profession well for many decades, current political, economic, and academic realities place its outdated and conflicted governance structure under too much pressure to be effective, and it is time for a better system. Obvious real and apparent conflicts of interest held by the AVMA, which has oversight over the COE, unduly influence the establishment and execution of the standards of accreditation and thus necessitate separation. The AVMA benefits from funds made available to it by entities whose interests would be served by either weakening or enhancing accreditation standards. For example, veterinary service corporations that cosponsor AVMA programs benefit from a greater availability of veterinarians for employment, employ lobbyists who advise clients on the establishment of new veterinary schools seeking accreditation, and support these schools once established through clinical alliances. Conversely, the interests of individual or groups of veterinarians, on whom the AVMA depends for dues and elected leadership, are served by restricting the number of new graduates providing competing services. The financial and personal ties that exist between these entities and the AVMA represent conflicting interests that compromise confidence in the COE’s ability to make unbiased accreditation decisions. The Association of American Veterinary Medical Colleges (AAVMC), which has recently partnered with the AVMA in the selection of COE members and will soon likely share costs and staffing responsibilities, has its own set of Why the AVMA’s Council on Education should be an independent entity

Anchoring in social context

The anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic has been studied in numerous experimental settings and is increasingly drawn upon to explain systematically biased decisions in economic areas as diverse as auctions, real estate pricing, sports betting and forecasting. In these cases, anchors result from publicly observable and aggregated decisions of other market participants. However, experimental studies have neglected this social dimension by focusing on neutral, experimenter-provided anchors in purely individualistic settings. We present a novel experimental design with a socially derived anchor, monetary incentives for unbiased decisions and feedback on performance to more accurately implement market conditions. Despite these factors, we find robust effects for the socially derived anchor, an increased bias for higher cognitive load, and only weak learning effects. A comparison to a neutral anchor shows that the social context increases biased behavior. Further, we find that this increase is not driven by differences in perceived relevance of anchor values. Our results support the assumption that anchoring remains a valid explanation for systematically biased decisions within market contexts.

Autonomy‐Enhancing Paternalism

SummaryWe present a form of soft paternalism called “autonomy‐enhancing paternalism” that seeks to increase individual well‐being by facilitating the individual ability to make critically reflected, autonomous decisions. The focus of autonomy‐enhancing paternalism is on helping individuals to become better decision‐makers, rather than on helping them by making better decisions for them. Autonomy‐enhancing paternalism acknowledges that behavioral interventions can change the strength of decision‐making anomalies over time, and favors those interventions that improve, rather than reduce, individuals' ability to make good and unbiased decisions. By this it prevents manipulation of the individual by the soft paternalist, accounts for the heterogeneity of individuals, and counteracts slippery slope arguments by decreasing the probability of future paternalistic interventions. Moreover, autonomy‐enhancing paternalism can be defended based on both liberal values and welfare considerations.

Responsible research publication: international standards for editors.

Editors are accountable and should take responsibility for everything they publish. Editors should make fair and unbiased decisions independent from commercial consideration and ensure a fair and appropriate peer review process. Editors should adopt editorial policies that encourage maximum transparency and complete, honest reporting. Editors should guard the integrity of the published record by issuing corrections and retractions when needed and pursuing suspected or alleged research and publication misconduct. Editors should pursue reviewer and editorial misconduct. Editors should critically assess the ethical conduct of studies in humans and animals. Peer reviewers and authors should be told what is expected of them. Editors should have appropriate policies in place for handling editorial conflicts of interest.

Are You Trying Too Hard?

Everyone makes mistakes. It’s part of what makes us human. Because humans understand their actions are sometimes flawed, it was perhaps inevitable that the field of psychology developed a rich body of academic literature to describe why it is that human beings often make poor decisions. Although insights from academia can be highly theoretical, our everyday life experiences corroborate many of these findings at a basic level: “I know I shouldn’t eat the McDonalds BigMac, but it tastes so good.” Because we recognize our frequent irrational urges, we often seek the judgment of experts, to avoid becoming our own worst enemy. We assume that experts, with years of experience in their particular fields, are better equipped and incentivized to make unbiased decisions. But is this assumption valid? A surprisingly robust, but neglected branch of academic literature, has studied the assumption that experts make unbiased decisions for over 60 years. The evidence tells a decidedly one-sided story: systematic decision-making, through the use of simple quantitative models with limited inputs, outperforms discretionary decisions made by experts. This essay summarizes research related to the “models versus experts” debate and highlights its application in the context of investment decision-making. Based on the evidence, investors should de-emphasize their reliance on discretionary experts, and should instead approach investment decisions with systematic models. To quote Paul Meehl, an eminent scholar in the field, “There is no controversy in social science that shows such a large body of qualitatively diverse studies coming out so uniformly in the same direction as this one [models outperform experts].”

Does the Endowment Effect Justify Legal Intervention? The Debiasing Effect of Institutions

We claim that the endowment effect rarely justifies legal intervention in private ordering. We present the first theory, to our knowledge, to explain how institutions inhibit the endowment effect without altering people’s rights to their entitlements. The endowment effect is substantially caused by anticipated regret. We show that people experience regret only when they feel responsible for the decision and can mute regret by trading through institutions that let them share responsibility with others. As entitlement holders typically transact through institutions, we expect most people to make unbiased trading decisions in real markets. We test two common institutions—agency relationships and voting—that divide responsibility between multiple actors. Each caused most subjects to debias and trade in our study. We also show that people intentionally debias by employing institutions in order to share responsibility. Thus, when people can freely transact, private ordering generally overcomes the endowment effect.

An Experimental Study on Social Anchoring

The anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic has been studied in numerous experimental settings and is increasingly drawn upon to explain systematically biased decisions in economic areas as diverse as auctions, real estate pricing, sports betting and forecasting. In these cases, anchors result from publicly observable and aggregated decisions of other market participants. However, experimental studies have neglected this social dimension by focusing on external, experimenter-provided anchors in purely individualistic settings. We present a novel experimental design with a socially derived anchor, monetary incentives for unbiased decisions and feedback on performance to more accurately implement market conditions. Despite these factors, we find robust effects for the social anchor, an increased bias for higher cognitive load, and only weak learning effects. Finally, a comparison to a neutral, external anchor shows that the social context increases the bias, which we ascribe to conformity pressure. Our results support the assumption that anchoring remains a valid explanation for systematically biased decisions within market contexts.

Peer review at the beginning of the 21st century

Vigorous debate currently surrounds peer review, and polarized views are often expressed. Despite criticisms about the process, studies have found that it is still valued by researchers, with rigorous peer review being rated by authors as the most important service they expect to receive when paying to have their papers published open access. The expectations of peer review and what it can achieve need, however, to be realistic. Peer review is also only as good and effective as the people managing the process, and the large variation in standards that exists is one of the reasons some of the research and related communities have become critical of and disillusioned with the traditional model of peer review. The role of the editor is critical. All editors must act as proper editors, not just moving manuscripts automatically through the various stages, but making critical judgements throughout the process to reach sound and unbiased editorial decisions. New models and innovations in peer review are appearing. Many issues, however, remain the same: rigorous procedures and high ethical standards should be in place, those responsible for making decisions and managing the process need to be trained to equip them for their roles and responsibilities, and systems need to be adapted to deal with new challenges such as the increasing amounts of data being generated and needing to be taken into account when assessing the validity and soundness of work and the conclusions being drawn.

Mathematical anxiety is linked to reduced cognitive reflection: a potential road from discomfort in the mathematics classroom to susceptibility to biases.

BackgroundWhen asked to solve mathematical problems, some people experience anxiety and threat, which can lead to impaired mathematical performance (Curr Dir Psychol Sci 11:181–185, 2002). The present studies investigated the link between mathematical anxiety and performance on the cognitive reflection test (CRT; J Econ Perspect 19:25–42, 2005). The CRT is a measure of a person’s ability to resist intuitive response tendencies, and it correlates strongly with important real-life outcomes, such as time preferences, risk-taking, and rational thinking.MethodsIn Experiments 1 and 2 the relationships between maths anxiety, mathematical knowledge/mathematical achievement, test anxiety and cognitive reflection were analysed using mediation analyses. Experiment 3 included a manipulation of working memory load. The effects of anxiety and working memory load were analysed using ANOVAs.ResultsOur experiments with university students (Experiments 1 and 3) and secondary school students (Experiment 2) demonstrated that mathematical anxiety was a significant predictor of cognitive reflection, even after controlling for the effects of general mathematical knowledge (in Experiment 1), school mathematical achievement (in Experiment 2) and test anxiety (in Experiments 1–3). Furthermore, Experiment 3 showed that mathematical anxiety and burdening working memory resources with a secondary task had similar effects on cognitive reflection.ConclusionsGiven earlier findings that showed a close link between cognitive reflection, unbiased decisions and rationality, our results suggest that mathematical anxiety might be negatively related to individuals’ ability to make advantageous choices and good decisions.

RESPONSIBLE RESEARCH PUBLICATION: INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS FOR AUTHORS

Summary Editors are accountable and should take responsibility for everything they publish. Editors should make fair and unbiased decisions independent from commercial consideration and ensure a fair and appropriate peer review process. Editors should adopt editorial policies that encourage maximum transparency and complete, honest reporting. Editors should guard the integrity of the published record by issuing corrections and retractions when needed and pursuing suspected or alleged research and publication misconduct. Editors should pursue reviewer and editorial misconduct. Editors should critically assess the ethical conduct of studies in humans and animals. Peer reviewers and authors should be told what is expected of them. Editors should have appropriate policies in place for handling editorial conflicts of interest. Reference Kleinert S and Wager E (2011), Responsible research publication: international standards for editors. A position statement developed at the 2nd World Conference on Research Integrity, Singapore, July 22-24, 2010. Chapter 51 in: Mayer T and Ste-neck N (e ds). Promoting Research Integrity in a Global Environment. Imperial College Press / World Scientific Publishing, Singapore (pp 317-28). (ISBN 978-981-4340-97-7).

Setting Strategic Direction for Complex Publicly Funded Foodservice Systems: Application of Multicriteria Decision Analysis

Decision making for publicly funded foodservice operations can be a complex process. If multiple criteria, such as quality food, efficient service, customer acceptance, creating healthy food environments, and financial performance, are combined with legal and political considerations, such as community planning, environmental stewardship, and governance, stakeholders may have considerable difficulty in making unbiased and rational decisions. 1 Baltussen B. Niessen L. Priority setting of health interventions: The need for multi-criteria decision analysis. Cost Eff Resour Alloc. 2006; 4: 14 Crossref PubMed Scopus (419) Google Scholar

Investment Literacy and Individual Investor Biases: Survey Evidence in the Japanese Stock Market

In this paper, we analyzed the results of our survey on Japanese stock investor’s asset risk management and empirically examined the effect of their investment literacy on their decision-making biases. This paper revealed that the higher the investors’ investment literacy, the lower their overconfidence bias. This suggests that high investment literacy can prevent investors from being influenced by an overconfidence bias and consequently making biased decisions in investment. Therefore, efforts to improve investors’ investment literacy by enhancing social systems such as investment education could be beneficial in guiding investors to make unbiased investment decisions.