Ultrasound Prediction Research Articles

The sonographic prediction of invasive carcinoma in unilocular-solid ovarian cysts in premenopausal patients: a pilot study

Unilocular-solid ovarian cysts are a rare but challenging pathology in young women, with a desire to spare their fertility. In these cases, the risks of borderline and invasive disease are around 10 and 20%, respectively. No ultrasound rule has yet demonstrated the ability to discriminate with high accuracy, a borderline tumor from a benign tumor or 'invasive tumor'. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive performance of different ultrasound parameters in differentiating benign and borderline tumors versus invasive malignant tumors in premenopausal patients with unilocular-solid ovarian masses. Women aged ≤ 50 years with unilocular-solid adnexal masses with a maximum diameter ≤ 10 cm, undergoing surgery in our department within 3 months from ultrasound examination, were included in this retrospective study. A standardized ultrasound examination technique and predefined definitions of ultrasound characteristics were used. The results of ultrasound examination using gray scale and color Doppler were compared with the histological examination of the respective surgical specimens. The study included 51 patients. On histological examination, 36 (70%) lesions were classified as benign, 10 (20%) as borderline ovarian tumors and 5 (10%) as invasively malignant tumors. In receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis, the best cut-off for the largest solid component with regard to discriminating non-invasive (benign or borderline) from invasive tumors was 14 mm. A largest solid component >14 mm, the presence of papillation blood flow and the combination of the two parameters provided a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 63, 63 and 80%, respectively. Transvaginal ultrasound examination seems to be able to discriminate between invasive and non-invasive tumors in the premenopausal patients with unilocular-solid adnexal masses. Because of the retrospective nature of the study, further prospective clinical trials are needed to confirm the accuracy of the selected sonographic parameters in discriminating the invasive and non-invasive adnexal tumors.

P2-10-06: Prospective Ultrasonographic Prediction of Sentinel Lymph Node Metastasis by Real-Time Virtual Sonography Constructed with Three-Dimensional Computed Tomography-Lymphography in Breast Cancer Patients.

Abstract Background: Real-time virtual sonography (RVS) systems display virtual multiplanar reconstruction (MPR) images obtained from three-dimensional (3D) computed tomography (CT)-lymphography (LG), significantly improving preoperative detection of sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs). The purpose of this study was to prospectively evaluate SLN metastasis using an RVS system. Methods: We identified SLNs in 73 clinically node-negative breast cancer patients using an RVS system to display in real time a virtual MPR obtained from CT volume data corresponding to the same cross-sectional image from ultrasonography (US). CT volume data were obtained using our original 3DCT-LG, which accurately detects SLNs in breast cancer. We then prospectively attempted to predict metastasis to SLNs. SLN metastases were assessed by measuring the cortex thickness in the presence of a visible hilum. We defined suspected SLN metastases as SLNs with a cortex thickness of at least 2.5 mm on the basis of our preliminary data. All patients underwent SLN biopsy and SLN metastases were examined pathologically with serial 2.0-mm-thick multiple slices. Results: Suspected SLN metastases were identified in 24 of 73 patients, and 13 of these 24 patients were pathologically positive. The remaining 49 patients displayed no suspected SLNs, and 46 of these 49 were pathologically negative. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and overall accuracy of measuring cortical thickness for predicting metastatic involvement of SLNs were 81, 81, 54, 94, and 81%, respectively. Conclusion: If cortical thickness of the SLN is less than 2.5 mm, SLN metastasis is unlikely to be present. If cortical thickness of the SLN is at least 2.5 mm, preoperative fine-needle aspiration cytology may be recommended to verify the possibility of SLN metastasis. Citation Information: Cancer Res 2011;71(24 Suppl):Abstract nr P2-10-06.

Ultrasonography-guided ethanol ablation of predominantly solid thyroid nodules: a preliminary study for factors that predict the outcome

The aim of this study was to evaluate the success rate in ultrasonography-guided ethanol ablation (EA) of benign, predominantly solid thyroid nodules and to assess the value of colour Doppler ultrasonography in prediction of its success. From January 2008 to June 2009, 30 predominantly solid thyroid nodules in 27 patients were enrolled. Differences in the success rate of EA were assessed according to nodule vascularity, nodule size, ratio of cystic component, amount of injected ethanol, degree of intranodular echo-staining just after ethanol injection and the number of EA sessions. On follow-up ultrasonography after EA for treatment of thyroid nodules, 16 nodules showed an excellent response (90% or greater decrease in volume) and 2 nodules showed a good response (50-90% decrease in volume) on follow-up ultrasonography. However, 5 nodules showed an incomplete response (10-50% decrease in volume) and 7 nodules showed a poor response (10% or less decrease in volume). Statistical analysis revealed a significant association of nodule vascularity (p=0.002) and degree of intranodular echo-staining just after ethanol injection (p=0.003) with a successful outcome; however, no such association was observed with regard to nodule size, ratio of cystic component, amount of infused ethanol and the number of EA sessions. No serious complications were observed during or after EA. The success rate of EA was 60%, and nodule vascularity and intranodular echo-staining on colour Doppler ultrasonography were useful in predicting the success rate of EA for benign, predominantly solid thyroid nodules.

A predictor of fetal lung growth: Quintero et al

The article below summarizes a roundtable discussion of a study published in this issue of the Journal in light of its methodology, relevance to practice, and implications for future research. Article discussed: Quintero RA, Quintero LF, Chmait R, et al. The quantitative lung index (QLI): a gestational age–independent sonographic predictor of fetal lung growth. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2011;205:544.e1-8. The full discussion appears at www.AJOG.org, pages e1-2.

FGFR3 related skeletal dysplasias diagnosed prenatally by ultrasonography and molecular analysis: Presentation of 17 cases

Fibroblast Growth Factor Receptor 3 (FGFR3) related skeletal dysplasias are caused by mutations in the FGFR3 gene that result in increased activation of the receptors causing alterations in the process of endochondral ossification in all long bones, and include achondroplasia, hypochondroplasia, thanatophoric dysplasia, and SADDAN. Reports of prenatal diagnosis of FGFR3 related skeletal dysplasias are not rare; however, the correlation between 2nd trimester ultrasonographic findings and underlying molecular defect in these cases is relatively poor. There is a need for specific ultrasound (U/S) predictors than can distinguish lethal from non-lethal cases and aid an earlier prenatal diagnosis. Here we present one familial and 16 sporadic cases with FGFR3 related skeletal dysplasia, and we evaluate biometric parameters and U/S findings consistent with the diagnosis of skeletal dysplasia. U/S scan performed even at the 18th week of gestation can indicate a decreased rate of development of the femora (femur length (FL) <5th centile), while the mean gestational age at diagnosis is still around the 26th week. The utility of other biometric parameters and ratios is discussed (foot length, BPD, HC, FL/foot, and FL/AC). Prenatal cytogenetic and molecular genetic analyses were performed. A final diagnosis was reached by molecular analysis. In two cases of discontinued pregnancy, fetal autopsy led to a phenotypic diagnosis and confirmed the prenatal prediction of lethality. We conclude that the combination of U/S and molecular genetic approach is helpful for establishing an accurate diagnosis of FGFR3-related skeletal dysplasias in utero and subsequently for appropriate genetic counselling and perinatal management.

Intravascular Ultrasound Findings of Early Stent Thrombosis After Primary Percutaneous Intervention in Acute Myocardial Infarction

Background— Small stent area and residual inflow/outflow disease have been reported as the strongest intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) predictors of early stent thrombosis (ST) in patients with stable angina. IVUS predictors of early ST in patients with acute myocardial infarction have not been studied. Methods and Results— In the Harmonizing Outcomes with Revascularization and Stents in Acute Myocardial Infarction (HORIZONS-AMI) study, a formal substudy included poststent and 13-month follow-up IVUS at 36 centers. Twelve patients with baseline IVUS who had definite/probable early ST ≤30 days after enrollment were compared with 389 patients without early ST. Significant residual stenosis was a lumen area &lt;4.0 mm 2 with ≥70% plaque burden ≤10 mm from each stent edge. Significant edge dissection was more than medial dissection with lumen area &lt;4 mm 2 or dissection angle ≥60°. Randomization to bivalirudin ( P =0.29) or paclitaxel-eluting stent ( P =0.74) was not related to early ST. Minimum lumen area was smaller in patients with versus without early ST (4.4 mm 2 [3.6, 6.9] versus 6.7 mm 2 [5.3, 8.0], respectively, P =0.014). Minimum lumen area &lt;5 mm 2 , significant residual stenosis, significant stent edge dissection, and significant tissue (plaque/thrombus) protrusion (more than the median that narrowed the lumen to &lt;4 mm 2 ) were more prevalent in patients with early ST, but significant acute malapposition (more than the median) was not. Overall, 100% of patients with early ST had at least 1 of these significant features: minimum lumen area &lt;5 mm 2 , edge dissection, residual stenosis, or tissue protrusion versus 23% in patients without early ST ( P &lt;0.01). Conclusions— Smaller final lumen area and inflow/outflow disease (residual stenosis or dissection) but not acute malapposition were related to early ST after acute myocardial infarction intervention. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00433966.

Prospective ultrasonographic prediction of sentinel lymph node metastasis by real-time virtual sonography constructed with three-dimensional computed tomography–lymphography in breast cancer patients

Real-time virtual sonography (RVS) systems display virtual multiplanar reconstruction (MPR) images obtained from three-dimensional (3D) computed tomography (CT)-lymphography (LG), significantly improving preoperative detection of sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs). The purpose of this study was to prospectively evaluate SLN metastasis using an RVS system. We identified SLNs in 73 clinically node-negative breast cancer patients using an RVS system to display in real time a virtual MPR obtained from CT volume data corresponding to the same cross-sectional image from ultrasonography (US). CT volume data were obtained using our original 3DCT-LG, which accurately detects SLNs in breast cancer. We then prospectively attempted to predict metastasis to SLNs. SLN metastases were assessed by measuring the cortex thickness in the presence of a visible hilum. We defined suspected SLN metastases as SLNs with a cortex thickness of at least 2.5 mm on the basis of our preliminary data. All patients underwent SLN biopsy and SLN metastases were examined pathologically with serial 2.0-mm-thick multiple slices. Suspected SLN metastases were identified in 24 of 73 patients, and 13 of these 24 patients were pathologically positive. The remaining 49 patients displayed no suspected SLNs, and 46 of these 49 were pathologically negative. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and overall accuracy of measuring cortical thickness for predicting metastatic involvement of SLNs were 81, 81, 54, 94, and 81%, respectively. If cortical thickness of the SLN is less than 2.5 mm, SLN metastasis is unlikely to be present. If cortical thickness of the SLN is at least 2.5 mm, preoperative fine-needle aspiration cytology may be recommended to verify the possibility of SLN metastasis.

Preintervention Angiographic and Intravascular Ultrasound Predictors for Side Branch Compromise After a Single-Stent Crossover Technique

A single stent crossover technique is the most common approach to treating bifurcation lesions. In 90 bifurcation lesions with side branch (SB) angiographic diameter stenosis <75%, we assessed preintervention intravascular ultrasound (IVUS; of main branch [MB] and SB) predictors for SB compromise (fractional flow reserve [FFR] <0.80) after a single stent crossover. Minimal lumen area (MLA) was measured within each of 4 segments (MB just distal to the carina, polygon of confluence, MB just proximal to polygon of confluence, and SB ostium). All lesions showed Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction grade 3 flow in the SB after MB stenting. Although angiographic diameter stenosis at the SB ostium increased from 26 ± 15% before the procedure to 36 ± 21% after stenting (p = 0.001), FFR <0.80 was observed in only 16 patients (18%). Negative remodeling (remodeling index <1) was seen in 83 (92%) lesions but did not correlate with FFR after stenting. Independent predictors for FFR after stenting were maximal balloon pressure (p = 0.002) and MLA of SB ostium before percutaneous coronary intervention (p <0.001), MLA within the MB just distal to the carina (p = 0.025), and plaque burden at the SB ostium before percutaneous coronary intervention (p = 0.005), but not angiographic poststenting diameter stenosis or minimal lumen diameter. For prediction of FFR <0.80 after percutaneous coronary intervention, the best cutoff of MLA within the SB ostium before percutaneous coronary intervention was 2.4 mm(2) (sensitivity 94%, specificity 69%). Also, the cutoff of plaque burden within the SB ostium before percutaneous coronary intervention was ≥51% (sensitivity 75%, specificity 71%). In 67 lesions with an MLA ≥2.4 mm(2) or plaque burden <50% before percutaneous coronary intervention, 63 (94%) showed FFR ≥0.80. However, FFR <0.80 was seen in only 12 (52%) of 23 lesions with an MLA <2.4 mm(2) and plaque burden ≥50%. In conclusion, there do not appear to be reliable IVUS predictors of functional SB compromise after crossover stenting.

Value of repeat ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration in thyroid nodule with a first benign cytologic result: Impact of ultrasound to predict malignancy

This study aimed to investigate the value of repeat ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration (FNAC-US) in benign thyroid nodules and determine the ultrasound (US) predictors of malignancy in this group of nodules. The authors studied 35 of 143 nodules with initially benign cytological result who underwent serial re-biopsy (FNAC-US). By means of surgery, malignancy histology results were confirmed in 10 (28.5%) cases (G1) versus 25 (71.5%) benign nodules (G2). The clinical, lab, scintigraphyc, and US features were compared between the two groups to predict malignancy in thyroid nodules with initially benign cytological result. The cytological finding of 28/35 nodules were change to indeterminate cytology (Bethesda system category III or IV) at second and/or ≥third cytological study. In this group of 28 cases, 23 (82.1%) was identified until the third procedure. The interval between first and third re-biopsy was 13months (median). There were no differences in age, gender, thyrotropin (TSH) levels, thyroid auto-antibodies, or thyroid dysfunctions. The scintigraphy showed cold nodule in 80% of G1 versus 78.9% of G2 (NS). Sonographic studies showed malignant suspected US features in G1: microcalcifications, central flow, hypoechogenicity, and border irregularity. This study suggests repeating FNAC-US in nodules with first benign cytologic result and suspicious US features of malignancy for at least two times (until the third FNAC) in about 13months horizon.

Usefulness and problems of endoscopic ultrasonography in prediction of the depth of tumor invasion in early gastric cancer.

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the accuracy of endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) in local and regional staging of early gastric cancer, to analyze the factors influencing the accuracy of EUS, and to reveal the usefulness and problems of EUS in pre-treatment staging of gastric cancer. We examined 105 lesions in 104 patients with histologically confirmed gastric cancer and retrospectively evaluated them with EUS. The diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of EUS were determined by comparing the pre-treatment EUS with the postoperative histopathological findings. The overall diagnostic accuracy of EUS for the depth of cancer invasion was 86%. The overall sensitivity and specificity were 60% and 96%, respectively. The accuracy significantly declined in lesions located in the upper-third of the stomach (70%). Type 0-I lesions tended to be over-staged (12&), and the upper-third lesions tended to be under-staged (23%). The accuracy significantly declined in differentiated adenocarcinoma with massive submucosal invasion (56.5%). EUS is useful for evaluating the depth of gastric cancer invasion which determines the feasibility of endoscopic treatment. However, it is noteworthy that the diagnostic accuracy of the invasion depth diminished for lesions in the upper third of the stomach.

Sa1627 Usefulness and Problems of Endoscopic Ultrasonography in Prediction of the Depth of Tumor Invasion in Early Gastric Cancer

Sa1627 Usefulness and Problems of Endoscopic Ultrasonography in Prediction of the Depth of Tumor Invasion in Early Gastric Cancer

AS-227 Intravascular Ultrasound Predictors of No-Reflow after Percutaneous Saphenous Vein Graft Intervention with Distal Protection Devices

Intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) predictors of no-reflow after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for saphenous vein graft (SVG) with distal protection devices were not well known. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between IVUS findings and the no-reflow phenomenon after PCI of SVG lesions with distal protection devices.

Contrast-Enhanced Sonography Depicts Spontaneous Ovarian Cancer at Early Stages in a Preclinical Animal Model

Our goal was to examine the feasibility of using laying hens, a preclinical model of human spontaneous ovarian cancer, in determining the kinetics of an ultrasound contrast agent indicative of ovarian tumor-associated neoangiogenesis in early-stage ovarian cancer. Three-year-old White Leghorn laying hens with decreased ovarian function were scanned before and after intravenous injection of a human serum albumin-perflutren contrast agent at a dose of 5 μL/kg body weight. Gray scale morphologic characteristics, Doppler indices, the arrival time, peak intensity, and wash-out of the contrast agent were recorded and archived on still images and video clips. Hens were euthanized thereafter; sonographic predictions were compared at gross examination; and ovarian tissues were collected. Archived clips were analyzed to determine contrast parameters and Doppler intensities of vessels. A time-intensity curve per hen was drawn, and the area under the curve was derived. Tumor types and the density of ovarian microvessels were determined by histologic examination and immunohistochemistry and compared to sonographic predictions. The contrast agent significantly (P < .05) enhanced the visualization of microvessels, which was confirmed by immunohistochemistry. Contrast parameters, including the time of wash-out and area under the curve, were significantly different (P < .05) between ovaries of normal hens and hens with ovarian cancer and correctly detected cancer at earlier stages than the time of peak intensity. The laying hen may be a useful animal model for determining ovarian tumor-associated vascular kinetics diagnostic of early-stage ovarian cancer using a contrast agent. This model may also be useful for testing the efficacy of different contrast agents in a preclinical setting.

Combination of high-resolution and color Doppler ultrasound in diagnosis of carpal tunnel syndrome

Ultrasound has recently emerged as a diagnostic tool in carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS). To evaluate the utility of a combination of high-resolution and color Doppler ultrasound as an alternative to electrodiagnostic tests (EDT), in CTS diagnosis, and to define an ultrasonographic prediction model for CTS. A total of 85 patients with certain clinical diagnosis of CTS and 49 healthy controls were enrolled. High-resolution and color Doppler ultrasound were performed and the cross-sectional area (CSA), hypoechogenicity, and hypervascularity of the median nerve were evaluated. Receiver-operating characteristic curves were used to determine the optimal cut-off point of median nerve CSA in diagnosis of CTS. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to formulate a prediction model for CTS. The optimal cut-off point of median CSA in wrist was 10.5 mm(2). Hypervascularity (OR = 37.95), hypoechogenicity (OR = 12.30), and high CSA (OR = 34.79) of median nerve were significantly (P < 0.001) higher in CTS patients than in controls. No significant difference was found between the sensitivity and specificity of EDT and any of the above indices in prediction of CTS. An ultrasonographic model for prediction of CTS, comprised hypervascularity and/or high CSA of median nerve, could predict the CTS probability between 87-99%. The sensitivity and specificity of this model (86% and 84%) was not different from EDT (80% and 84%). A combination of high-resolution and color Doppler ultrasound can be used as a non-invasive alternative to EDT in diagnosis of CTS.

Ultrasonographic Prediction of Hepatic Fat Content in Dairy Cows during the Transition Period

The objective of the present study was to emphasize the value of ultrasonography in predicting hepatic fat content in dairy cows during the transition period. For this purpose, five dairy cows during the transition period were examined by ultrasonography 3 times during this phase, 3wk before expected partition (wk -3), at parturition (wk 0) and 3wk after parturition (wk +3). Parallel, blood samples were collected and livers were biopsied. None of the cows showed clinical disease around calving. Compared with precalving values, the hepatic triglyceride and glycogen concentrations were higher at parturition (wk 0) and thereafter (wk +3). Histopathologically, there were no cellular abnormalities in hepatocytes 3 weeks before parturition. However, at parturition the hepatocytes contained some lipid drops in cytosol, and the cells after parturition (wk +3) turn opacificated severely and cellular membranes are indistinct. With increased liver TG content, hepatic ultrasonography showed increased overall echogenicity with vascular blurring. In the field, the visual evaluation of the brightness of hepatic tissue in dairy cows during the transition period can give a rough, but quick estimate of the liver fat content. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first that shows hepatic changes by ultrasonography in dairy cows during the transition period.

Ultrasound predictors of mortality in monochorionic twins with selective intrauterine growth restriction

The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of ultrasound assessment to predict risk of mortality in expectantly managed monochorionic twin fetuses with selective intrauterine growth restriction (sIUGR). This was a retrospective study of 101 monochorionic twin pregnancies diagnosed with sIUGR before 26 weeks of gestation. All patients were under expectant management during the observation period. At the initial evaluation, the presence or absence of each of the following abnormalities was documented: oligohydramnios; stuck twin phenomenon; severe IUGR < 3(rd) centile of estimated fetal weight; abnormal Doppler in the umbilical artery; and polyhydramnios in the larger twin. The relationships between these ultrasound findings and mortality of sIUGR fetuses were evaluated using multiple logistic regression analysis. Of 101 sIUGR twins, 22 (21.8%) fetuses suffered intrauterine demise and nine (8.9%) suffered neonatal death; 70 (69.3%) survived the neonatal period. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that the stuck twin phenomenon (odds ratio (OR): 14.5; 95% CI: 2.2-93.2; P = 0.006) and constantly absent diastolic flow in the umbilical artery (OR: 29.4; 95% CI: 3.3-264.0; P = 0.003) were significant risk factors for mortality. Not only abnormal Doppler flow in the umbilical artery but also severe oligohydramnios should be recognized as important indicators for mortality in monochorionic twins with sIUGR.

Ultrasound predictors of birth weight in euploid fetuses with isolated single umbilical artery

To evaluate ultrasound parameters, including Doppler assessment, that may influence fetal growth and birth weight in cases of isolated single umbilical artery (SUA). Sixty pregnant women with isolated SUA were studied. Doppler measurements of umbilical artery (UA), mean uterine artery (UtA) and fetal middle cerebral artery (MCA) pulsatility indices (PI) were recorded and the corresponding Z-scores were calculated according to gestational age at time of measurement. Additionally, the umbilical vein (UV) to UA diameter and perimeter ratios were calculated. The relationships between ultrasound parameters and customized birth-weight centiles according to sex and gestational age were analyzed. There were significant correlations between birth-weight centile and the Z-score of mean UtA-PI (r = - 0.417, P = 0.008) and the UV to UA perimeter ratio (r = 0.567, P = 0.001). A significant positive correlation between Z-scores of UA-PI and mean UtA-PI (r = 0.428, P = 0.007) was also found. When using stepwise linear regression analysis both mean UtA-PI Z-scores and UV to UA perimeter ratio were included in the predictive model of birth-weight centile (R(2) = 0.46, P < 0.001). Doppler assessment of mean UtA-PI and the UV to UA perimeter ratio may be useful in the clinical management of isolated SUA cases by identifying a subgroup at higher risk for fetal growth restriction.

Validity of sonographic prediction of fetal weight and weight discordance in twin pregnancies

The aims of this study were (1) to assess the accuracy of estimated fetal weight (EFW) in twins and (2) to assess the accuracy of sonographic examination to predict birth weight discordance (BWD). We retrospectively analyzed collected data on twin pregnancies between 2004 and 2007. All twin pregnancies with at least one ultrasound (US) examination within 15 days of delivery were included in this study. EFW was calculated according to Hadlock1, Hadlock2, Ong, Shepard and Warsof formulas. Mean and SD of the standardized errors and percentage of newborns with birth weight (BW) within 10% of EFW were calculated. Two hundred eighty-three twin pregnancies were included. Mean and SD (%) of the standardized errors were 1.54 +/- 12.19, 0.19 +/- 11.87, 10.93 +/- 15.55, - 1.91 +/- 14.93 and 5.37 +/- 14.91 for Hadlock1, Hadlock2, Shepard, Ong and Warsof formulas, respectively. Hadlock2's formula allowed for the highest proportion of newborns with BW within 10% of EFW and it also performed best to predict discordance of more than 25% as assessed by area under the ROC curve. Sonographic prediction of inter-twin BWD within 15 days of delivery seems to be accurate enough for routine clinical use. Performance and predictive values depend on the threshold chosen to define EFW and BW discordance.

Sonographic prediction of macrosomia cannot be improved by combination with pregnancy‐specific characteristics

To evaluate the predictive value of a combination of sonographic, clinical and demographic data for detecting fetal macrosomia compared to ultrasound fetal weight estimation alone. Retrospective cohort data were obtained from 1062 pregnancies in an unselected population. Estimated fetal sonographic weight was obtained within the last week prior to delivery. Two different combination models-published by Mazouni et al. and Nahum and Stanislaw-were employed to predict the presence of macrosomia at birth in these infants. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curves were generated to compare the prediction of macrosomia when using different observation methods and sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value (NPV) and accuracy were calculated. Macrosomia (birth weight >or= 4000 g) was present in 135/1062 (12.7%) newborns. ROC curve analysis revealed the prediction of macrosomia using ultrasound alone to be significantly superior to the combined method of Mazouni et al. (area under the curve (AUC) 0.922, 95% CI 0.902-0.943 vs. 0.747, 95% CI 0.700-0.794, respectively; P < 0.0005), whereas the performance of the Nahum and Stanislaw equation was similar but not superior to ultrasound alone (AUC 0.895, 95% CI 0.839-0.950 vs. 0.912, 95% CI 0.867-0.958, respectively; P > 0.05). The accuracy of macrosomia prediction was similar for ultrasound alone and the Nahum and Stanislaw equation (approximately 90%), whereas the nomogram of Mazouni et al. reached only 51.7% accuracy (using a probability cut-off level of 50%). The NPV was found to be over 90% for all methods. Combination of sonographic estimates with clinical and demographic variables does not improve the prediction of macrosomia at delivery in comparison with a routine ultrasound scan within a week before delivery, at least in unselected populations.

Effect of Culprit-Lesion Remodeling Versus Plaque Rupture on Three-Year Outcome in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome

To investigate intravascular ultrasound predictors of long-term clinical outcome in patients with acute coronary syndrome, 94 patients with a first acute coronary syndrome with both preintervention intravascular ultrasound imaging and long-term follow-up were enrolled in this study. Remodeling index was defined as external elastic membrane cross-sectional area at the target lesion divided by that at the proximal reference. Arterial remodeling was defined as either positive (PR: remodeling index >1.05) or intermediate/negative remodeling (remodeling index < or =1.05). Clinical events were death, myocardial infarction, and target-lesion revascularization. Patients were followed up for a mean of 3 years. PR was observed in 50 (53%), and intermediate/negative remodeling, in 44 (47%). During the 3-year follow-up, there were 20 target-lesion revascularization events and 5 deaths (2 cardiac and 3 noncardiac), but no myocardial infarctions. Patients with PR showed significantly lower major adverse cardiac event (MACE; death, myocardial infarction, and target-lesion revascularization)-free survival (log-rank p = 0.03). However, patients with plaque rupture showed a nonsignificant trend toward lower MACE-free survival (p = 0.13), but there were no significant differences in MACE-free survival between those with single versus multiple plaque ruptures. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, only culprit lesion PR was an independent predictor of MACEs (p = 0.04). In conclusion, culprit-lesion remodeling rather than the presence or absence of culprit-lesion plaque rupture was a strong predictor of long-term (3-year) clinical outcome in patients with acute coronary syndrome.