ABSTRACT This paper analyses English Millennium Cohort Study data (N = 4463). It examines two respective predictors of children’s maths self-concept at age 11: earlier in-class maths ‘ability’ group and earlier teacher judgements of children’s maths ‘ability/attainment’ (both at age seven). It also investigates differential associations by maths cognitive test score at seven (which proxies maths skill), and by gender. In the sample overall, controlling for numerous potential confounders including maths score, bottom-grouped children and children judged ‘below average’ are much more likely to have later negative maths self-concept. Beneath this aggregate lies variation by gender. All highest ‘ability’-grouped boys have very low chances of negative self-concept, regardless of maths score – but low-scoring girls placed in the highest group have heightened chances of thinking subsequently they are not good at maths. Additionally, the association between negative teacher judgement and negative self-concept is more pervasive for girls.