UK Water Research Articles

Post-Brexit: Untangling the fishing mesh

Fisheries is one of the key issues in the negotiations for an agreement between the UK and the EU on their future relationship. At the end of the transition period, the UK will have full sovereignty over its waters but the EU is demanding the continuation of the existing pattern of fishing as far as possible. This article untangles the different elements of the issue. It demonstrates the international legal requirements for the regulation of fishing that will have to be met by the UK. To meet its obligations with regard to access to and use of fish resources under international law, a close cooperation with the EU and other neighbouring countries will be necessary. As the EU negotiation position links a free trade agreement with an agreement on fisheries while the UK is seeking discrete trade and fisheries agreements, the position at the end of 2020 is very uncertain. The problems regarding the trade in fish and fishery products, customs duties and sanitary product standards will be examined. EU provisions on environmental standards and marine protected areas will in principle no longer be applicable in the UK, but marine environmental protection is an obligation of international law so the protection of the marine environment and ecosystems in UK waters post-Brexit will be considered. We conclude by considering whether Brexit will deliver anticipated benefits.

Water Scarcity Communication in the UK: Learning From Water Company Communications Following the 2018 Heatwave

When communicating about water scarcity, public water companies in the UK operate within a fine balance. There is a legal obligation on water companies in the UK to promote efficient water use, and pressure on water resources means that water companies need to encourage changes in water consumption behaviors. However, there is a lack of information about the way UK water companies communicate with the public. This paper presents the results of research into UK water company practices and perceptions in engaging consumers around water scarcity and water saving and discusses what this means for water scarcity communication. Interviews with 10 water company communication teams (14 interviewees) following the 2018 UK heatwave explored opportunities, innovations and challenges in public communication. Interviewees recognized the need for an ongoing conversation about water in the UK and identified a number of practices which could support a change in public water consumption. The results highlight the perceived importance of trust, timing and community- or group-scale communications, and the need for a cross-sectoral and intergenerational approach to public communication about water resources. This research examines some of the current underlying assumptions of water companies about what influences public water consumption in the UK and offers insights into some of the key challenges and opportunities for the future.

Revisiting UK Marine Protected Areas governance: A case study of a collaborative approach to managing an English MPA

Abstract Case studies of Marine Protected Area (MPA) upscaling were solicited from participants of a workshop at the International Marine Protected Areas Conference held in Autumn 2013 in Marseille. One such case study was Solandt, Jones, Duval‐Diop, Kleiven, and Frangoudes (2014; Governance challenges in scaling up from individual MPAs to MPA networks. Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems, 24, 145–152) which illustrated the role of science, non‐governmental organizations, government and local regulators in applying systemic management measures for local MPAs based on risk, highlighting the importance of balancing top‐down and bottom‐up drivers. Here we follow up on the UK example, illustrating the incentives and actors involved in developing centralized and subsequent fisheries management measures in UK waters. Forty local laws were created to protect features in 143 inshore MPAs between 2013 and 2019. We illustrate best practice in delivering management, focusing on multiple practitioner involvement in a single MPA and the monitoring put in place after trawling and dredging were banned. We reflect on how the governance mechanisms in place in English inshore waters can be used as a template to allow for progressive MPA management in other coastal states.

Analyzing the Attitudes of Spanish Firms towards Brexit’s Effects on the Management of European Fisheries

The United Kingdom has played a prominent role in the Common Fisheries Policy—by contributing to fisheries activities and also by participating in the design of the fisheries policy. Brexit is certain to have significant repercussions for European fisheries activities and their management. This study analyses the views held by companies linked to the fisheries sector in Galicia (fishing, wholesale trade, canned fish, aquaculture, and fish processing), one of the European regions most affected by Brexit given that more than 80% of the Spanish fishing fleet working on UK waters is located in this region. We adopt a quantitative methodology based on the Pearson’s chi-squared test, the likelihood ratio, and the Fisher’s exact test for analyzing opinions about various topics. Results indicate that companies engaged in marine fisheries or trade in fishing goods hold a mostly negative view of Brexit’s effects. In total, 30% of those surveyed anticipate that Brexit will have negative consequences for EU workers in UK fishery companies; a slightly higher percentage of these respondents expect the United Kingdom’s exit from the EU to depress Spain’s foreign trade; over half of those surveyed perceived Brexit as resulting in the adverse scenario of reduced access to fisheries’ resources and were in favor of reformulating the current system of total allowable catches (TACs) and quotas among the remaining post-Brexit member states. Most respondents also agreed that Brexit will have negative repercussions on vessels of the Galician fleet operating under the British flag. Our statistical analysis identifies a significant relationship between negative attitudes and the firm’s size for fisheries’ sectors as a whole; however, no relation between those attitudes and firm size or turnover is identified when the particular fishing companies’ perceptions are evaluated.

Leisure craft sacrificial anodes as a source of zinc and cadmium to saline waters

Sacrificial anodes are attached to the hulls of boats and marine structures to prevent corrosion. Their use inevitably leads to release of zinc as well as impurities in the zinc alloy such as cadmium to the saline environment. Risk assessments and source apportionment exercises require accurate assessments of the potential loads of chemicals into the environment. This research has surveyed a wide variety of zinc anodes for their composition to compare against a reported industry standard as well as using differing methodologies to determine the dissolution rate of zinc and cadmium from anodes. A zinc dissolution rate of 477 g/yr/kg of anode is proposed. Although most anodes tested had concentrations of cadmium within the prescribed limits set by the reported standard, calculated leaching rates from laboratory dissolution experiments suggested as much as 400 g per year of cadmium could leach from zinc anodes used on leisure vessels within UK waters.

BIM in the water industry: addressing challenges to improve the project delivery process

PurposeThe UK water industry is a private sector that has no government mandate to implement building information modelling (BIM) but would benefit from its use. Research has identified that fragmentation and inefficiency still existed in the water industry project delivery processes. These issues can be addressed by harnessing the collaboration that BIM brings by using emerging information technology. The UK water industry has had little research in the use of BIM in the project delivery processes over the years.Design/methodology/approachThe aim of the research is to explore and examine BIM elements currently used in the water industry, as well as understand the organisational cultural support for BIM. It also investigated the adoption of BIM which will enable to improve water industry project delivery processes. An empirical study was performed in the UK given the relatively new and unexplored nature of the research problem, a qualitative research methodology was adopted. In total, 14 semi-structured interviews from six water sector organisations were conducted to collect data, which was then analysed using thematic analysis for inference and conclusion.FindingsThe study identified that BIM has already changed how projects are delivered by the water companies and their supply chain. Use of emerging technology such as Autodesk Revit, Civil 3D and virtual reality has gained traction and is leading organisations to continue investing in these areas to remain relevant. Although staff training was offered by all organisations within the study cohort, some interviews still thought that more can be done by their organisations as BIM is still maturing. Those interviewed regarded BIM models as data and information rich with the ability to enable the supply chain to obtain quicker approvals.Originality/valueThe paper provides a richer insight into the understanding and awareness of BIM elements used in the water industry to improve project delivery processes. This study suggests that the water industry supply chain has taken positive steps and started to benefit from BIM use. It also recommends that there is a need for cross-sector collaboration to capture and share best and worst practices relating to BIM adoption in the water sector.

Influence of phosphate dosing on biofilm development on Drinking Water Distribution Systems infrastructure surfaces

Phosphate is added to drinking water by UK water companies as a treatment to prevent the corrosion and metal leaching, like lead, in pipes. However, phosphate is a nutrient for microorganisms, and it can favour biofilm formation in Drinking Water Distribution Systems (DWDS), which can alter the water quality and safety. This study analyses the effect of phosphate addition on biofilm formation over different materials and its consequences for drinking water quality by i) using controlled experimental pipeline facility representative of a real-scale DWDS with high-density polyethylene coupons and ii) using a small-scale DWDS biofilm reactors with lead coupons. Biofilms developed over one month were exposed to the effect of different phosphate dosing and compare with UK normal water phosphate concentrations. During the experiment, physico-chemical analysis of water and microbial analysis of biofilms was carried out. Sequencing analysis of the 16s rRNA gene, from extracted DNA obtained from biofilms, provided information on any bacterial changes, and Scanning Electron Microscopy gave information about the biofilm organization. The results indicate that microorganisms find more difficult to establish and develop biofilms under high phosphate dosing, resulting in biofilms with less cells. Also, some physico-chemical parameter seems to be affected by phosphate dosing, like chlorine and lead. It is expected that differences in the biofilm community will be found depending on phosphate dosing. This study will provide information on the effect of phosphate on biofilm development in different pipes materials, which will facilitate to adjust an optimal phosphate dose to prevent plumbosolvency in DWDS.

Adsorptive interactions between metaldehyde and sulfonic functional group in ion exchange resin

The elevated metaldehyde (a toxic molluscicide) concentrations in UK and EU water bodies are a major concern among water treatment professionals and related stakeholders. The difficulty of removing metaldehyde using conventional water treatment methods has motivated researchers to develop more effective treatment solutions. In this contribution, we have utilized density functional theory (DFT) to fundamentally investigate the adsorptive interactions (e.g. binding energy) between metaldehyde and sulfonic functional group in an ion exchange resin. Adsorption of the cationic metaldehyde on deprotonated sulfonic group is substantial with a binding energy amounting to 130.9 kcal/mol. Preliminary results on an experimental study involving adsorption of metaldehyde on ion exchange resin are also reported. Our findings would complement the existing body of knowledge on metaldehyde removal.

Assessing the Effects of Banana Pingers as a Bycatch Mitigation Device for Harbour Porpoises (Phocoena phocoena)

Bycatch is a significant cause of population declines of marine megafauna globally. While numerous bycatch mitigation strategies exist, acoustic alarms, or pingers, are the most widely adopted strategy for small cetaceans. Although pingers have been shown to be an effective measure for numerous species, there are some concerns about their long-term use. Bycatch is recognised as a persistent problem in waters around Cornwall, United Kingdom, where several cetacean species are resident, with harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) being the most-commonly sighted. In this study, we assessed the effects of a Banana Pinger (Fishtek Marine Limited) on harbour porpoises in Cornwall between August 2012 and March 2013. Two passive acoustic loggers (C-PODs; Chelonia Limited) were deployed 100m apart to record cetacean activity during cycles of active and inactive pinger periods. Harbour porpoises were 37% less likely to be detected at the C-POD near the pinger when the pinger was active, while they were only 9% less likely to be detected 100m further away. The effect of the pinger was constant over the study period at both C-PODs despite the temporal variation in harbour porpoise detections. In addition, we found no evidence of reduced pinger effect with changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, harbour porpoise detections at the C-POD near the pinger did not depend on the time elapsed since the pinger turned off, with harbour porpoises returning to the ensonified area with no delay. Together these results suggest that (1) harbour porpoises did not habituate to the pinger over an eight-month period, (2) the pinger effect is very localised, and (3) pinger use did not lead to harbour porpoise displacement over the study period, suggesting an absence of long-term behavioural effects. We suggest that the deployment of pingers on fishing nets would likely reduce net-porpoise interactions, thereby mitigating bycatch of harbour porpoises and potentially other cetacean species. As the small-scale fishery dominates in UK waters, there is an acute need for cost-effective mitigation strategies with concurrent monitoring to be implemented rapidly in order to address the problem of harbour porpoise, and more generally, cetacean bycatch.

Project Kraken: Surveillance and Liminality ‘On the Edge’ of Land and Water

ABSTRACT Project Kraken, an effort to combat terrorism and crime on the UK water network, is a valuable case that propels knowledge of surveillance. Whilst similar initiatives universalize surveillance participation, Kraken particularises it, occupying specific spaces and recruiting a delimited (maritime) community. Research observed, on one hand, Kraken’s spatial liminality, given its occupation of the land/water threshold, characterized by ‘edges’ through which humans, thought, and resources flow. On the other, agential liminality was observed given Kraken’s enlistment of the maritime community: ever ‘on the edge’ of land/water, peripheral to national security, yet endowed with knowledge useable by state. A marginal actor recruited ‘inwards,’ that community possesses a watery consciousness harnessed for raison d’état. Liminality offers a lens through which to assess such particularisation. A liminal approach, foregrounding the edge, helps overcome the binaries of inside/outside, land/water, offering fertile territory on which to revision power flows and more accurately situate the powerful and powerless in contemporary social science.

Wide dispersal of recently weaned grey seal pups in the Southern North Sea

AbstractGrey seals have become an important part of the ecosystem in the southern North Sea over the last 50 years. However, little is known about their spatial utilization of the German North Sea, especially in relation to the dispersal and behaviour of grey seal pups after weaning. We investigated these little-known aspects by recording the movements of 11 grey seal pups born at the largest German colony for 1–9 months after leaving the colony between 2015 and 2017. The individuals moved widely throughout the southern North Sea, including some individuals that moved far along the Danish coast or to Dutch and UK waters. A point process modelling approach revealed that pups increased their distance to Helgoland during the first 70 d at sea. The frequency of inferred foraging behaviour increased until week 7 and decreased afterwards, whereas fast travelling behaviour increased throughout the whole study period. These findings reflect the transition from naive to more experienced pups, with gradual increases in foraging effort, range and efficiency to account for their increasing energy demands for survival and growth. This study provides the first characterization of the dispersal, behaviour, and spatial utilization of recently weaned grey seal pups in the southern North Sea, which profoundly extents our knowledge of an increasingly important top predator in that area.

Priority setting for invasive species management by the water industry

The expansion of Invasive Alien Species (IAS) is a growing concern to the UK water industry because of their diverse impacts on water quality, infrastructure and eradication costs. New regulations reinforcing the industry’s responsibilities beyond operational costs, coupled with continued range expansion and establishment of new IAS will increase damages. To tackle IAS effectively, the water industry requires reliable information about which species pose the greatest risk to operations and which areas are most vulnerable to invasion. Here we assess potential biosecurity threats for the 24 water companies in the UK using well-established modelling research techniques such as risk assessment and distribution modelling. Using a consensus approach with environmental managers and water companies, we identified 11 IAS of concern for the UK water industry, including five plants, three crustaceans, two molluscs and one fish. These invaders pose important hazards in terms of water quality, flood protection, human health, integrity of infrastructures, recreational and aesthetic values, amongst others. We used distribution models to predict their potential expansion under current and future 2050 climate scenarios within each of the 24 water companies in the UK. Water companies in the South East of England (Cambridge Water, Anglian Water, Affinity Water and Thames Water) are under the highest risk of invasional meltdown from multiple IAS, both now and under future scenarios. The quagga mussel poses the most serious risk of immediate spread and may exacerbate the impacts of the widespread zebra mussel for the water industry. The information generated in this study can support the prioritization of species and regions at risk, so that funds for prevention and eradication of invasions are well allocated. Ultimately, this study demonstrates that scientific risk assessments, usually restricted to the academic and public sectors, can be extremely useful to guide decision-making by the private sector.

Thermoelectric water meter energy harvesting

Domestic electronic water meters are installed by water meter utility companies to accurately measure household water usage for billing purposes, progressing from simple electromechanical systems to state-of-the art volumetric electronic smart meters with RF radio transmission, remote reading, and automatic billing capability. The motivation for this work is to replace, or increase the lifetime of, the on-board lithium-ion battery installed in electronic water meters with a thermoelectric energy harvesting solution to create a business advantage. Practical field experiments at several different water meter installations in the UK, USA, and Australia have demonstrated a temperature difference can exist between the top-side and bottom-side of a water meter, and between several different areas of the meter and the surrounding air. This temperature difference can be harnessed to generate electrical power using thermoelectricity. A prototype thermoelectric water meter energy harvesting system has been designed, and experiments demonstrate the system will operate when a temperature difference is present across the thermoelectric module, giving an output voltage of 3.7 V to power the water meter electronics directly or to provide a charge current for the existing lithium-ion battery to increase its lifetime. The work concludes it is feasible, although still challenging, to develop a solution for a novel thermoelectric powered water meter. Further work is required to address the commercial challenges that exist, develop and optimise the prototype solution into a production ready prototype, and conduct further tests using a standard UK domestic water profile at a UK water meter test site.

Integrating blue-green and grey infrastructure through an adaptation pathways approach to surface water flooding.

A range of solutions to future flood risk are available ranging from blue-green infrastructure (BGI) as commonly incorporated in sustainable drainage systems (SuDS) to traditional grey infrastructure (e.g. pipe networks, storage tanks, flood walls). Each offers a different profile with respect to costs, flexibility of implementation and the ability to deliver a range of wider benefits beyond their flood protection function. An important question that must be addressed when considering these approaches is what is the most suitable mix of grey and blue-green solutions to urban flooding at any location and at any future time? This paper uses an adaptation pathways approach to compare a range of alternative options to deal with current and expected future flood risk in part of a London borough. Solutions considered separately and in combination include grey pipe expansion, bioretention cells, permeable pavements and storage ponds. A methodological framework combines a range of existing tools to develop, assess and characterize each pathway, including a storm water management model (SWMM), a SuDs opportunity selection tool, an adaptation pathway generator and the CIRIA B£ST tool for monetizing multiple benefits. Climate change is represented by the UK Water Industry Research method for establishing future rainfall intensities for sewer and BGI design. The results showed that by extending the way in which adaptation pathways are compared and evaluated through the wider consideration of multiple benefits there is a trade-off between deferring interventions until they are needed for flood risk mitigation and delivering the multiple benefits associated with interventions so that performance thresholds do not need to be met before introducing new options. The relative contribution of each option's capital and operation and maintenance costs has implications on when the option is implemented as well as the rate of implementation. The monetization of the multiple benefits associated with each pathway shows that their economic co-evaluation alongside infrastructure costs can change the preference for one pathway over another. This article is part of the theme issue 'Urban flood resilience'.

Marine Conservation Begins at Home: How a Local Community and Protection of a Small Bay Sent Waves of Change Around the UK and Beyond

The Firth of Clyde, on the west coast of Scotland, was once one of the most productive fishing grounds in Europe. However, successive decades of poor management and overfishing led to a dramatic loss of biodiversity and the collapse of finfish fisheries. In response, concerned local residents on the Isle of Arran, which lies in the middle of the Clyde, formed the Community of Arran Seabed Trust (COAST) in 1995. After 13 years of campaigning, a small (2.67 km2) area in Lamlash Bay became Scotland’s first no-take zone (NTZ) in 2008, and only the second in the UK. Since protection, biodiversity has increased substantially, along with the size, age and density of commercially important species such as the king scallop, Pecten maximus, and the European lobster, Homarus gammarus. Arguably more important, however, is the influence the Lamlash Bay NTZ and COAST have had on UK marine protection in general. Most notably, detailed research has created a case study that clearly demonstrates the benefits of protection in an area where little such evidence is available. This case has been used repeatedly to support efforts for increased protection of UK waters to help rebuild marine ecosystems and enhance their resilience in an uncertain future. In Scotland specifically, lobbying by COAST led to the designation of a much larger marine protected area (MPA, > 250 km2) around the south of Arran, one of 30 new MPAs in the country. Evidence from Lamlash Bay has supported development of strong protection for these MPAs, seeing off lobbyist efforts to weaken management. Arran’s conservation success has been recognised internationally and is inspiring greater involvement of local communities around the UK, and further afield, to take the destiny of their coastal waters into their own hands. Successful marine conservation begins at home.

Co-producing research with academics and industry to create a more resilient UK water sector

Societal, economic and environmental impact generated by academic research is a key focus of publicly funded research in the UK. Drawing on experiences from the Safe & SuRe project, a five-year research project that was co-produced with industry, this paper explores the challenges, learnings and benefits of co-producing research with academics and practitioners to create a more resilient UK water sector. Three aspects of the project are explored in detail: the use of a steering group, co-developing research intensively with a water company, and co-dissemination industry-facing events. Emerging themes include: (1) benefits of the industry steering group to develop working relationships and trust among the group; (2) increased dialogue and sharing of information between industry and academics going beyond the one-way communication more commonly reported by STEM academics; and (3) the value of co-disseminating research to maintain and engage new connections and spark new research questions.

Supply Chain Partner Communication in a Managed Programme in the UK Water Industry: A Case Study with Social Network Analysis.

The water industry in every country aims to effectively and efficiently provide water with satisfactory quality in a sustainable and environmentally friendly manner. To this end, it is critical to achieve effective communication among the partners in water supply chain networks. In this paper, we focus on one of the UK’s largest water utility companies and its eight main contractors and analyze the factors influencing partner and network communication in a managed programme of their asset supply chain. We employ social network analysis to conduct the cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis of partner communication. Factors found to influence the communication network are grouping of projects within the programme, individual’s organisational affiliation, status, tenure, elapsed time through the programme lifecycle, and co-location. Our contributions to practice include demonstrating water programme management factors that influence communication and trust and how social network analysis can better inform them about intra- and interorganisational relationships. Moreover, the methodology introduced in this study may be applied to water management in other parts of the world.

What is the nature and extent of evidence on methodologies for monitoring and evaluating marine spatial management measures in UK and similar coastal waters? A systematic map protocol

BackgroundAnthropogenic degradation of marine ecosystems is widely accepted as a major social-ecological problem. The growing urgency to better manage marine ecosystems has led to the increasing application of ‘spatial management measures’ including marine protected areas, sectoral (e.g. fishery) closures, and marine spatial planning. However, the designation of varied spatial management regimes is just the first step; achievement of objectives relies upon effective implementation, monitoring, evaluation and adaptation. Despite spatial management being a core component of the marine management portfolio, to our knowledge, there is no systematic overview of the evidence on methodologies available, and employed, to monitor and evaluate their effectiveness across social, economic and ecological outcomes.MethodsThis systematic map will examine existing evidence describing methodologies for monitoring the effects, and evaluating the effectiveness, of marine spatial management across ecological, social and economic outcomes. Our aim is to provide a resource for decision-makers, primarily in the UK but also internationally, that supports effective marine management, and to describe the current evidence base. Identification and evaluation of relevant studies will therefore be restricted to coastal countries identified by our Stakeholder Group as being relevant to the UK, and searches will be restricted to the period 2009 to 2019 to align with the current UK policy context. Searches for relevant grey and academic literature, published in English, will be conducted in four bibliographic search engines, Google Scholar, 38 organisational websites and one specialist data repository. Eligibility screening will be conducted first at title and abstract level, and then at full text. Coding and meta-data extraction from eligible studies will include: bibliographic information, general information about the spatial management measure studied, and methodological information on the monitoring and evaluation undertaken. Consistency checking amongst reviewers will be undertaken during screening, coding and data extraction phases. The outcome of the systematic map will be a database that displays the meta-data of identified relevant studies. Findings will be presented in a descriptive report detailing the evaluation approaches and analytical methodologies employed, and data collection methods applied and/or data required by relevant studies to inform evaluations on the effectiveness of marine spatial management measures.

Towards managing the United Kingdom's fisheries: A Brexit view from Scotland

Brexit, the UK's planned withdrawal from the EU, has significant implications for UK fisheries, potentially creating both opportunities and challenges regarding future governance of some of the most important fisheries in the EU. This paper presents findings of discussions with key industry representatives from two of Scotland's largest ports – Peterhead and Fraserburgh. The views of these stakeholders give a unique perspective on the opportunities and challenges provided by Brexit. Views are reported on the current management system, the importance of the EU as an export market and how industry stakeholders believe fisheries should be governed if the UK leaves the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). Despite the view from stakeholders that the current distribution of fishing rights in UK waters is unbalanced, and the view that the CFP has moved from a positive to a negative for the industry, the implications of these results suggest that this part of the industry is not focussed solely on a quick removal from the CFP that returns 100% of fishing rights and control of UK waters, but instead seeks an improved management system that allows for the long term sustainability of the sector.

Combining Distribution and Dispersal Models to Identify a Particularly Vulnerable Marine Ecosystem

Habitat suitability models are being used worldwide to help map and manage marine areas of conservation importance and scientific interest. With groundtruthing, these models may be found to successfully predict patches of occurrence, but whether all patches are part of a larger interbreeding metapopulation is much harder to assert. Here we use a North Atlantic deep-sea case study to demonstrate how dispersal models may help to complete the picture. Pheronema carpenteri is a deep-sea sponge that, in aggregation, forms a vulnerable marine ecosystem in the Atlantic Ocean. Published predictive distribution models from UK and Irish waters have now gained some support from targeted groundtruthing, but known aggregations are distantly fragmented with little predicted habitat available in-between. Dispersal models were used to provide spatial predictions of the potential connectivity between these patches. As little is known of P. carpenteri’s reproductive methods, twenty-four model set-ups with different dispersal assumptions were simulated to present a large range of potential dispersal patterns. The results suggest that up to 53.1% of the total predicted habitat may be reachable in one generation of dispersal from known populations. Yet, even in the most dispersive scenario, the known populations in the North (Hatton-Rockall Basin) and the South (Porcupine Sea Bight) are predicted to be unconnected, resulting in the relative isolation of these patches across multiple generations. This has implications for Ireland’s future conservation efforts as they may have to conserve patches from more than one metapopulation. This means that conserving one patch may not demographically support the other, requiring additional attentions to ensure that marine protected areas are ecologically coherent and sustainable. This example serves as a demonstration of a combined modelling approach where the comparison between predicted distribution and dispersal maps can highlight areas with higher conservation needs.