Two-way Fixed-effects Research Articles

The Effectiveness and Mechanisms of China’s Grain Support Policies in Relation to Grain Yield—An Evaluation of a Wide Range of Policies

Objective evaluation and in-depth systematic analysis of the effectiveness of implementing a grain support policy series represent an important entry point for improving incentives to grow food, improving grain production support and protection systems, and guaranteeing national food security. Thus, we collected and organized grain support policies during the study period according to the government work reports of 31 provinces in China from 2001 to 2022 and applied a two-way fixed-effects model based on the variables constructed using textual analysis to further explore the effects of a range of grain support policies on grain production gains. The conclusions are as follows: (1) grain support policies significantly contributed to an increase in grain production; (2) grain production gains from grain support policies are more pronounced in less industrialized and disaster-affected areas; (3) a mechanism analysis showed that grain support policies enhanced grain production by expanding the scale of food cultivation, upgrading agricultural mechanization, and strengthening soil erosion control; and (4) further analysis showed that grain support policies increased pesticide use. These conclusions are of great significance for improving grain production support and protection systems, enhancing incentives for farmers to grow food and for local governments to control food, and achieving the goal of food security.

A dataset of structural breaks in greenhouse gas emissions for climate policy evaluation

The quantitative assessment of policies aimed at climate change mitigation requires rigorously identifying abnormal changes in greenhouse gas emissions. We present a new dataset of robust level changes in greenhouse gas emissions that cannot be explained by aggregate socioeconomic fluctuations. Modern methods of structural break identification based on two-way fixed effects models are employed to estimate the size of significant level changes in emissions. The resulting dataset spans information for all major greenhouse gases in OECD countries across 37 IPCC sectors, from 1995 to 2022. The data unveils large differences in abnormal changes in emissions across gases, countries and sectors, as well as over time. Our resulting data can be applied to a broad range of research questions, including the analysis of the comparative efficacy of policy instruments to mitigate climate change.

Artificial intelligence and green development well-being: Effects and mechanisms in China

In a green and low-carbon context, green development well-being (GDW) encapsulates a city's capacity to convert natural consumption into well-being, and artificial intelligence technology (AIT) potentially serves as a catalyst for advancing GDW. Employing panel data from 282 cities in China spanning 2006–2021, this research develops a composite indicator to measure GDW at the municipal level and adopts a two-way fixed effects (TWFE) approach to investigate AIT's direct impacts on GDW and their underlying mechanisms. The empirical results reveal that AIT fosters GDW and contributes to GDW by enhancing green total factor productivity (GTFP), refining human capital structure and fostering entrepreneurial activity (EA). The effects of AIT on GDW further manifest heterogeneously, characterized by disparities in environmental regulation and regional contexts. Particularly, AIT's full impact on GDW remains unrealized in the central and northeast regions. Moreover, AI enterprises are pivotal agents in AIT advancement, playing a critical role in augmenting GDW. This research substantiates the positive influences of AIT on GDW and proposes a novel avenue for elevating GDW standards. Policies should target AIT's integration within the energy sector to optimize resource allocation, bolster energy efficiency, enforce stringent environmental regulations to incentivize AIT utilization for achieving heightened GDW levels, and foster collaboration between AI enterprises and public institutions in order to expedite AI-driven green development.

Causal effects of promotion to managerial positions on mental health and satisfaction in Japanese male workers.

We estimated the static and dynamic effects of promotion to managerial positions on mental health and satisfaction using the recent estimation method; we addressed the gap in extant research by considering the heterogeneity in treatment timing to reconfirm evidence regarding the causal effects of promotion. We used a modified estimation method of two-way fixed effects recommended by (Callaway and Sant'Anna, J Econom 225:200-230, 2021). To check for robustness, we compared the analyses using propensity sample matching, an alternative treatment timing heterogeneity-robust analysis, and a normal two-way fixed effects event study. We used four years of complete panel data on a sample of 1454 Japanese males (5816 overall). The results indicated that becoming a manager worsened mental health with a two-year lag. We tested the effects of promotion to managerial positions on variables shown in previous studies to have negative effects on mental health (e.g., increased working hours) and positive effects (e.g., increased job role clarity) as outcomes to explore the mechanisms. Some of both variables indicate statistical significance. These results were robust. The promotion to managerial positions deteriorated mental health with a two-year lag. Promotion to managerial positions exhibited both positive and negative effects. The findings have potential implications for firms' human resources allocation.

Is the Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansion in the USA associated with reductions in intimate partner violence victimisation?

Intimate partner violence (IPV) affects an estimated 47% of women living in the USA in their lifetime and is associated with increased risk of physical and mental health concerns. Current prevention efforts focus on individual and family-level interventions rather than macrosystem-level policies. Thus, we sought to test the effects of Medicaid expansion on the rates of IPV and violence more broadly. Present analyses use retrospective longitudinal data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). State level rates of total violence and IPV were measured per 1000 population from the NCVS for years 2008-2018 as 3-year averages for each state. A two-way fixed-effects difference-in-differences model was fit to evaluate differences in the change in violence outcomes pre-2014/post-2014 in Medicaid expansion states versus non-expansion states. Comparison states had a significantly higher proportion of residents who were black, living below the federal poverty level and with lower educational attainment. Before Medicaid expansion, comparison states had a significantly lower mean rate of total violence and IPV per 1000 population. In two-way fixed effects difference-in-differences models, there was no statistically significant association between Medicaid expansion and IPV or total violence. Despite null findings, our study adds to the evidence base evaluating the impacts of macro-level policies on different forms of violence. The pathways by which Medicaid expansion could contribute to violence reduction are multifaceted with numerous mediators and those pathways may not be sufficiently strong to generate impacts. Additional work is warranted to further probe Medicaid expansion's impact on violence prevention.

CEO OVERSEAS EXPERIENCE, CULTURAL DISTANCE AND CORPORATE FINANCIALIZATION: THE MEDIATING EFFECT OF ESG INVESTMENT IN CHINA

Recently, Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) with overseas experiences show the “star effect”, according to upper echelons theory, CEOs’ overseas experiences might relate to corporate financialization, but there is little evidence of whether and how overseas CEOs affect it. Given the increasing trend of hiring overseas CEO in China, the study fills in the gap in the literature by examining the effect of CEOs with overseas experiences on corporate financialization. In sum, the study employs a two-way fixed effect model and SYS-GMM model to investigate the relationship between CEOs with overseas experiences and corporate financialization. Our findings still hold after the endogeneity disposal with a two-way fixed effect regression by lagging variables, Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS), Heckman two-stageregression, and the propensity score matching (PSM). Moreover, the cultural distance between the host countries where CEO worked or received education and China inhibits corporate financialization, especially, Individualism vs Collectivism (IC) distance makes the most significant contribution. Furthermore, overseas CEOs primarily inhibit corporate financialization by improving ESG investment.

The Dynamic and Heterogeneous Effects of COVID-19 Vaccination Mandates in the USA.

Mandatory vaccination for COVID-19 has received intense political and ethical debates, while the literature on the causal effects of vaccination mandates on vaccination outcomes is very limited. In this study, we examine the effects of the announcement of vaccine mandates (VMs) for workers working in three sectors, including health, education, and state governments, on the uptake of first-dose and second-dose vaccination across 50 states in the United States of America. We show that VM announcements have heterogeneous effects; hence, standard two-way fixed effects and difference-in-differences estimators are biased. We present evidence for the heterogeneous treatment effects in single and two-treatment settings. In the setting of a single treatment, when treating all VM announcements equally, our results show that VM announcement was associated with an increase of 20.6% first-dose uptake from 1 July to 31 August 2021. In two-treatment settings, our results suggest that VM announcements for workers in health or state government sectors have significant causal effects on first-dose vaccination. Additionally, VM announcements do not have significant causal effects on second-dose uptake. Our results are robust to the choice of differing outcome variables and periods after controlling for state-level covariates, including COVID-19 death, unemployment, and cumulative two-dose vaccination.

Finance-driven sustainable development: the impact of green finance on agricultural non-point source pollution and its pathways

IntroductionPollutants from farming and rural life have a serious negative impact on water and soil. The advantages of green finance in financial support and credit management can guide the green transformation of agricultural production, thus protecting the ecological environment.MethodsBased on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2021, the study used inventory analysis, entropy method and two-way fixed effect model to analyze the impact of green finance on agricultural non-point source pollution (ANSP) and the mediating mechanism.ResultsANSP has experienced an inverted U-shaped trend of first rising and then falling, and the rural ecological environment is improving. At the time level, the ANSP produced by agricultural production in China experienced an inverted U-shaped evolution trend of first increasing and then decreasing during the sample period. At the spatial level, ANSP has a significant low regional differentiation. The ANSP of the central region and the coastal economic development area is higher than that of the western region. The results of linear regression show that green finance has a negative effect on ANSP. Promoting green finance in rural areas can effectively guide the green transformation of agriculture and reduce the dependence of crop cultivation on fertilizers and pesticides. This result held even after the elimination of endogeneity and after various tests. Land transfer and environmental supervision are important intermediary mechanisms. Under the influence of these two economic variables, the role of green finance in pollution reduction can be fully brought into play. However, there is regional heterogeneity in the negative effects of green finance on ANSPs. Its effect on pollution reduction is stronger in major grain-producing areas and regions with well-developed digital financial infrastructure.DiscussionThis study confirms once again that green finance has a negative effect on ANSP, and the findings help to decouple the development of the agricultural economy from emissions. The outstanding contribution of this study is the discovery of the role of land transfer and government environmental regulation. I order to give full play to the role of green finance in pollution reduction, this study provides relevant policy measures. These measures are intended to improve the green finance system and business model in agriculture and rural areas.

Green Finance and Value Realization of Forest Ecological Products in Karst Areas: A Mediating-Effect Perspective Based on the Level of Karst Desertification

With their unique karst geomorphology and rich biodiversity, forest ecosystems present huge ecological potential, and their ecological products promise great economic value. In this context, an important way to realize the sustainable development of karst areas is the transformation of such ecological potential into economic advantages. In this paper, Guizhou Province, China, one of the most representative regions with karst geomorphology, is examined in a case study. Using the equivalent factor method, the values of forest ecological products in various states of Guizhou Province were calculated for the years 2010, 2015, and 2020. Furthermore, a two-way fixed-effects model was employed to examine the influence of green finance on the realization of these values in the karst region. The findings of this paper are as follows: (1) The value of forest ecological products presented an increasing trend from 2010 to 2020, and green finance significantly promoted the value realization of forest ecological products. Robust estimates could still be obtained after endogeneity control. (2) The results of heterogeneity testing indicated that in karst regions with slower economic development and poor ecological environment, green finance promoted the value realization of forest ecological products more significantly. (3) The mechanism test showed that by providing financial support for rocky desertification control and forest restoration projects, green finance promoted ecological restoration, governance, and vegetation restoration while mitigating rocky desertification; in this way, green finance drove the development of ecological forestry and industrial upgrading to accelerate the value realization of ecological products, thereby strongly supporting the sustainable development of karst areas.

How penetration of e-commerce in rural areas drives consumption in China

PurposeThis paper explores how rural e-commerce drives consumption in both urban and rural residents; further, it presents evidence from the perspective of e-commerce penetration in rural areas and among farmers to assess the contribution of e-commerce to China’s economic strategy goal of fostering an economy driven by domestic demand.Design/methodology/approachData of Taobao villages from 2014 to 2021 are matched with data on prefecture-level cities. A two-way fixed effect model, instrumental variable model and group comparison method are employed to explore the role and mechanism of e-commerce penetration in rural areas in stimulating residents’ consumption through consumption propensity, purchasing power and consumer population.FindingsThe findings confirm that e-commerce penetration of rural areas can stimulate residential consumption, and residents generally adhere to the consumption concept of “living within their means.” The driving effect on residents’ consumption is achieved by expanding the urban consumer population and improving the purchasing powers of both urban and rural residents. The spatial dispersion of e-commerce villages strengthens the positive impact of e-commerce penetration in rural areas on consumption; this strengthening is caused by the increasing consumer population of urban residents and the purchasing power of both urban and rural residents. The agriculture-oriented e-commerce penetration of rural areas negatively impacts residents’ consumption, consumption propensity and consumer population; however, industrial-oriented penetration positively affects residents’ consumption, consumption propensity, purchasing power and consumer population.Originality/valueTo the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to analyze the role and mechanism of e-commerce penetration in rural areas in stimulating residents’ consumption through consumption propensity, purchasing power and consumer population. This study contributes to advancing e-commerce and consumer theory by exploring the realm of rural e-commerce while also presenting empirical evidence from China.

Child poverty and academic skills at the national level: A longitudinal analysis of four waves of PISA

Much research has examined school-related sources of cross-national variation in academic skills, but we know far less about the role that broader socioeconomic conditions play. In this study, we examine how nations’ child poverty rates associate with their overall scores on international assessments of academic skills over time. We first establish theoretically why and how child poverty might undermine overall academic skills at the national level. We then use pooled time-series data on 40 nations that participated in four recent waves of the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) to analyze the impact of changes in child poverty rates on changes in nations’ overall academic skills ( N = 160 nation-years). Two-way fixed-effects models find support for two hypotheses and, to a lesser extent, a third: As child poverty increases within nations over time, (1) mean academic skills decrease, (2) the percentage of low-skilled students increases, and (3) the percentage of high-skilled students decreases (for math only). We conclude by discussing the theoretical and political implications of the findings.

Flavored E-Cigarette Sales Restrictions and Young Adult Tobacco Use

More than one-quarter of US residents live in states or localities that restrict sales of flavored electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), often as a means to reduce youth vaping. Yet, how these policies affect young adult vaping and smoking remains unclear. To estimate the effects of ENDS flavor restrictions on ENDS use and cigarette smoking among young adults (age 18-29 years) in the US. This quasi-experimental analysis used annual survey data from the 2016 to 2023 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), a series of nationally- and state-representative, repeated cross-sectional surveys of noninstitutionalized civilian adults in the US. Two-way fixed-effects specifications were estimated to assess how ENDS flavor restrictions affect young adults' use of ENDS and cigarettes. Analyses were adjusted for potential confounders including concurrent tobacco control policies, respondent demographic characteristics, and socioeconomic factors. Data analyses were conducted in November 2023 and repeated in October 2024 to incorporate newly released 2023 survey data. Current and daily use of ENDS and of cigarettes as measured in the BRFSS. Balanced panel analyses of 242 154 individuals aged 18 to 29 years consistently found that state ENDS flavor restrictions were associated with statistically significant reductions in daily vaping and increases in daily cigarette smoking. Estimates were similar across robustness checks, with the main specification showing 3.6 (95% CI, -5.0 to -2.1) percentage point (ppt) reductions in daily vaping and 2.2 ppt increases in daily cigarette smoking (95% CI, 1.0 to 3.4) relative to changes in states without restrictions. These estimates are equivalent to an 80% reduction in daily vaping and 22% increase in daily smoking compared with 2018 mean rates. The findings of this quasi-experimental analysis of BRFSS survey data indicate that state restrictions on flavored ENDS sales were associated with reduced vaping among young adults but may have unintentionally increased cigarette smoking, potentially offsetting public health gains. These findings suggest that alleviating the burden of tobacco-related disease will require regulatory strategies that balance reducing vaping with preventing increases in more lethal, combustible tobacco use.

De-tracking at the margin: How alternative secondary education pathways affect student attainment

This paper estimates how marginal increases in the flexibility of between-school tracking affect student attainment by exploiting the addition of non-selective ‘comprehensive schools’ and hybrid ‘vocational high schools’ to Germany’s tracked school system. These schools opened up alternative pathways to the university-entrance certificate, which traditionally could only be obtained at academic-track schools. We use administrative records to compile a county-level panel of school supply and attainment for 13 cohorts between 1995 and 2007. Cross-sectionally, the supplies of all three school types awarding the university-entrance certificate correlate positively with its attainment. However, for academic-track and comprehensive schools this association is not robust to the inclusion of regional controls, suggesting that it reflects regional differences in educational demand rather than supply-side effects. For vocational high schools, in contrast, we find robust evidence for positive attainment effects not only in cross-sectional and two-way fixed-effects panel regressions, but also in an event-study design that exploits the quasi-random timing of new school openings. Likely reasons for their success are that they lower the (perceived) costs of educational upgrading for late-bloomers, and their hybrid curriculum, which may retain students in general schooling who would otherwise enter vocational training.

The Bright and Dark Sides: Unpacking the Effect of Digital Economy on Resource Curse

The digital economy does not always bring benefits; it has both bright and dark sides, highlighting nuanced contradictions and challenges in achieving green and sustainable development, especially in resource-based cities. This study examines the carbon emissions of 111 resource-based cities in China from 2011 to 2019. Using two-way fixed-effects and instrumental variables models, we discuss the advantages and drawbacks of the digital economy for the low-carbon transition of resource-based cities, revealing a “green paradox.” Specifically, the digital economy reduces the carbon intensity of resource-based cities by decreasing their dependence on natural resources. However, as energy consumption increases, carbon emissions scale also rise. Our analysis identifies changes in industrial structure and green innovation as potential catalysts for this paradox. Further analysis reveals that the impact of the digital economy varies across different types of resource-based cities. The results indicate that only in declining and regenerating cities does the digital economy significantly reduce carbon emission intensity, while there is no evidence that it reduces the overall scale of carbon emissions, regardless of city type. Drawing on these findings, the study puts forth policy recommendations to steer resource-based cities in their transition toward a low-carbon future.

Religion as an informal institution: A case of true pure land Buddhism and missing women in early modern Japan

In early modern Japan, infanticide was used for birth control and sex selection. However, some historians hypothesized that people who believed in the True Pure Land (TPL) sect of Japanese Buddhism were less likely to commit infanticide. I statistically examine this hypothesis using a quasi-natural experiment of hinoeuma (fire-horse) year with a two-way fixed-effects estimation. Girls born in a hinoeuma year were reckoned to be inauspicious and subjected to sex-selective infanticide. In 1846 and 1906 hinoeuma, TPL-dominant areas experienced a smaller increase in the male-to-female ratio in the cohort than the areas with less TPL dominance. Additional regressions support the hypothesis that the TPL’s prohibition of infanticide led to this smaller effect.

Has the carbon emission trading scheme induced investment leakage in China? Firm-level evidence from China's stock market

This study investigates the causal relationship between the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) and investment leakage in China, using firm-level subsidiary data for 4480 A-share listed companies with the Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) Difference-in-Differences (DID) method under staggered treatment adoption. The results indicate that the ETS has significantly induced regulated firms to increase the share of investment in the non-pilot area by 2.5 %, and the number of subsidiaries in the non-pilot by 2.035, suggesting that the policy has caused investment leakage. The rising operating cost due to ETS compliance may explain why regulated firms expand their outward investment. Furthermore, regulation intensity and social responsibility moderate the investment leakage effect. This study provides the first direct empirical evidence on the domestic investment leakage associated with the gradual ETS rollout in China and enriches the theory of the pollution haven effect by illuminating how the policy drives investment from the pilot area towards the non-pilot area.

Effects of a national checklist on recommended procedures among patients with type 2 diabetes

BackgroundType 2 diabetes (T2D) is a common, potentially disabling, and costly chronic condition that requires consistent management. In 2008, Norway introduced a national checklist outlining services to include in an annual T2D exam, along with a reimbursement code for general practitioners (GPs) to bill upon completing it. This study investigates whether GP adoption of the checklist improves adherence to recommended services for T2D patients.MethodsTo investigate the impact of GP checklist adoption, we use Norwegian registry data from 2006 to 2021 and apply two difference-in-differences (DID) methods that account for staggered adoption timing: the two-way fixed effects (TWFE) estimator and Callaway and Sant’Anna’s DID method for variation in exposure timing (CSDID) (Callaway B. et al., J Econom 225:200–30, 2021).ResultsWe find that installing the electronic form has modest effects on the use of some recommended procedures.ConclusionsOur study suggests that using the electronic form can have a positive effect on recommended services. However, the modest impact indicates that installing the form does not necessarily translate into its active regular use.

The impact of renewable energy consumption, green technology innovation, and FDI on carbon emission intensity: Evidence from developed and developing countries

Using 33 developed and 42 developing countries from 2000 to 2019, this study compares the heterogeneous impacts of renewable energy consumption, green technology innovation, and foreign direct investment (FDI) on carbon emission intensity (CEI). It is noteworthy that few studies have examined their collective impact on decreasing CEI from a comparative perspective among wealthy and poor nations, which is crucial for the formulation of targeted policy recommendations. Additionally, it also examines whether FDI moderates the mitigating effect of green technology innovation on CEI. Methodologically, multiplied models of pooled ordinary least square (OLS), two-way fixed effect, random effect, and fixed effect are employed to undertake asymmetric impact analysis. The endogeneity problem is addressed using both the System generalized method of moments (GMM) model and the instrumental variable approach. There is an interesting discovery: the marginal reduction effect of renewable energy consumption on CEI is much stronger in emerging countries with higher CEI compared to developed countries. Furthermore, implementing green technology innovation leads to a noticeable reduction in CEI in developed and developing countries, but the latter is still more effective. Moreover, FDI has a Pollution Haven effect on CEI in poor countries, whereas the anticipated Pollution Halo effect does not materialize in wealthy nations. Also, FDI acts as a mediator, reducing the adverse effects of green technology innovation on CEI in developing countries. This suggests that both Pollution Haven and Pollution Halo effects coexist in these regions, providing valuable insights into the conflicting results found in relevant studies. These findings provide practical insights for policymakers to customize successful measures to decrease CEI, especially in developing countries. Despite the substantial conflict they confront between environmental conservation and economic growth, their green measures are more effective than those of wealthy nations.

Does Experience of Vaccination Improve Vaccine Confidence and Trust? Policy Feedback Effects of Mass COVID-19 Vaccination in the United States.

Policy feedback research has demonstrated that a highly tangible policy that shapes public attitudes through direct and day-to-day experiences often reshapes public opinion, with the effect of generating supportive or skeptical constituencies that determine the sustainability of future programs. This paper examines the impact of mass vaccination efforts on attitudes towards vaccines in a context of high vaccine hesitancy in the U.S. We analyzed 73,092 survey responses from 9,229 participants in the longitudinal data from the Understanding America Study project, covering December 2020 to July 2023. Using two-way fixed-effects ordinary least squares regression and ordinal logistic regression, we estimated the changes in attitudes towards vaccines, including trust in vaccine manufacturing and approval processes, following COVID-19 vaccinations. COVID-19 vaccination was associated with improved perceptions of vaccine effectiveness and social benefits and reduced mistrust in vaccine-related processes. However, it did not significantly alleviate concerns regarding vaccine side effects and illness. The strongest effects were observed among respondents initially hesitant but who eventually vaccinated. The experience of COVID-19 vaccination generally improved attitudes and confidence in COVID-19 vaccines among the U.S. public, particularly among vaccine-hesitant people. These effects could have positive impacts on future immunization programs by mitigating vaccine hesitancy.

Heterogeneous Impacts of Traditional and Modern Information Channels on Farmers’ Green Production: Evidence from China

Efficient agricultural input is crucial for agricultural green production and sustainable development. The swift evolution of information and communication technologies has diversified the avenues through which farmers access information. However, how different information channels affect farmers’ production input remain poorly understood. Leveraging a two-way fixed-effects model and the Karlson-–Holm–Breen (KHB) method, this study delves into the mechanisms underlying the influence of both traditional and modern information channels on farmers’ inputs of seeds, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides (SCFP) based on over 15,000 sample of Chinese farmers. The findings reveal the following: (1) modern information channels significantly decrease farmers’ SCFP input, whereas traditional channels exhibit the opposite effect; (2) environmental pollution perception acts as a mediator in the influence of both traditional and modern information channels on farmers’ SCFP input; (3) traditional information channels significantly promote farmers’ SCFP input in the grain production and marketing balance areas, and modern information channels inhibit farmers’ SCFP input in major grain-producing areas; and (4) traditional and modern information channels have an impact on farmers’ SCFP input in the western region, but not in the central region. To promote sustainable agricultural development, government departments should enhance rural Internet access, diversify information sources, advocate for eco-farming, ensure regional digital equity, and enhance green agri-tech promotion.