Two-way Fixed Effects Model Research Articles

A Study on Rural Finance, Rural Industry Revitalization, and Rural Logistics Development: An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data from 30 Provinces in China

Purpose - This is a study on the influence mechanism of rural finance and rural industrial revitalization on rural logistics development from rural revitalization strategy.
 Design/Methodology/Approach - We use panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2020. A two-way fixed-effects model is constructed and mediated effects analysis and multiple regression analysis are used to analyze the dynamic relationship between rural finance, rural industrial revitalization, and rural logistics development. The dynamic relationship was empirically analyzed using mediated effects analysis and multiple regression analysis.
 Findings - Rural finance has a significant positive impact on rural logistics, and rural finance effectively promotes rural logistics development; rural finance affects rural logistics development by influencing the revitalization of rural industries, indicating that the revitalization of rural industries plays a mediating effect. The impact of rural finance on rural logistics is heterogeneous in the east, central, and west. Rural industry revitalization does not play a mediating role in the central era, comparing with an obvious mediating role in the east and west.
 Research Implications - The revitalization of rural industries as a transmission mechanism for rural finance to promote the development of rural logistics, and we verify the rationality of this transmission mechanism through a model to fill the gaps in the existing literature, thus providing a new research perspective for rural finance to promote the development of rural logistics, and providing some theoretical guidance and policy reference.

The influence of market segmentation on energy efficiency in electric power industry: Empirical evidence from China

In this paper, panel data from 30 provinces in China from 1999 to 2019 were selected. In using empirical research based on a two-way fixed effects model, this paper explores the impact of market segmentation on energy efficiency in electric power industry (EEE) and explores how the impact varies under different traffic accessibility levels. The results of study show that: Firstly, market segmentation inhibits the improvement of EEE. Secondly, traffic infrastructure has a positive moderating effect on EEE, that is, the more developed the traffic infrastructure is, the weaker the inhibiting effect of market segmentation on EEE is. Thirdly, empirical research methods based on a two-way fixed effects model is more accurate and reliable in measuring the impact of market segmentation on EEE. Such a method is an extension of traditional EEE analysis models. From the perspective of EEE, this paper discusses the moderating effects of transportation infrastructure development in the context of market segmentation, providing a theoretical foundation and decision-making basis for improving EEE.

The Effect of Green Urbanization on Forestry Green Total Factor Productivity in China: Analysis from a Carbon Neutral Perspective

Based on panel data from 30 provinces from 2001 to 2018 in China, this paper explores the effects and mechanisms of green urbanization on the forestry green total factor productivity (FGTFP) in the context of carbon neutral strategy using a two-way fixed effects model and instrumental variables. The results show that: Firstly, as a sector with ecological and economic benefits, ignoring carbon sink output tends to make FGTFP overestimated. Secondly, green urbanization has a significant positive contribution effect on FGTFP, and this finding still holds after a series of robustness tests including instrumental variables. Thirdly, green urbanization can indirectly promote FGTFP by stimulating the integration of forestry and tourism and strengthening environmental regulations. Fourthly, there is regional heterogeneity in the impact of green urbanization on FGTFP, i.e., the promotion effect of green urbanization on FGTFP is more significant in non-state forest areas compared with state-owned forest areas. Based on the above conclusions, the following countermeasures are proposed: firstly, attaching importance to green urbanization and strengthening environmental constraints; secondly, relying on green urbanization to drive the integration of forestry and tourism; thirdly, actively promoting the construction of green urbanization and green development of forestry in non-state forest areas, while vigorously developing the carbon sink economy to crack the transformation dilemma of backward state forest areas.

Once they are seated: the impact of radical right parties’ political representation on attitudes of trust and solidarity

AbstractA close reading of the literature on radical right parties (RRPs) suggests that these parties erode trust and solidarity in European democracies when they pit ‘the pure people’ against political and legal institutions, elites, and immigrants. I propose the conjecture that RRPs with seats in the national parliament have better conditions for spreading nativist and populist messages that may erode trust and solidarity between a society’s residents, between ethnic groups, and towards its political and legal institutions. To test this research question, I combine nine waves of European Social Survey data from 17 countries and data on national elections spanning the years 1999 to 2020. Two-way fixed effects models estimate that RRPs representation in the national parliament is associated with a reduction in public support for redistribution of ca. 18% of a standard deviation. Additionally, I demonstrate that this inverse relationship runs parallel to growing welfare chauvinistic beliefs and that it is stronger in countries with weak integration policies. Contra theoretical expectations, the radical rights’ political representation has not produced any change in societal levels of anti-immigration attitudes, institutional trust, or social trust. While the findings persist across a wide range of robustness checks and other model specifications, threats to identification in the form of non-parallel pre-trends and unobserved sources of confounding, means that one should be cautious in interpreting the findings in a causal manner.

Comparing Mobility and Spatial Pathways in the Hourly Prediction of Violent Crime

Much research has documented the contagiousness of violence. Some of this work has focused on contagiousness as operationalized by the spread across geographical space, while other work has examined the spread within social networks. While the latter body of work struggles with incomplete network data, the former constitutes a theoretical mismatch with how violence should spread. Theory instead strongly suggests that violence contagion should diffuse through everyday mobility networks rather than just adjacently through geographical space. Beyond contagion itself, I argue that neighborhoods connected through mobility networks should serve as useful short-term sensors in predicting imminent violence because these sets of residents tend to experience shared environmental exposures, which may induce synchrony in the likelihood of violence. I explore this topic and these relationships using violent crime data from the three largest U.S. cities: New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Using two-way fixed effects models, I test whether or not violence in mobility-connected alter neighborhoods in the preceding hour predicts violence in an ego neighborhood in the next hour. Across all three jurisdictions, I find that recent violence in the neighborhoods to which a neighborhood is connected through mobility ties can strongly predict that neighborhood’s odds of subsequent violence. Furthermore, spatial proximity has no significant effect on the likelihood of violent crime after controlling for mobility ties. I conclude by arguing that mobility patterns are an important pathway in the prediction of violence.

The impact of ESG performance on audit fees - a study based on a two-way fixed effects model

With the continuous promotion of the construction of beautiful China and ecological civilization, the concept of sustainable and green development has become increasingly popular. In recent years, enterprises' environmental social and governance (ESG) performance has received widespread attention in China. This paper selects panel data of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2011 to 2020 and uses a two-way fixed-effects model to explore the relationship between ESG performance of listed companies and audit fees. Robustness and endogeneity tests of the empirical structure are performed by replacing explanatory variables and regressing explanatory variables with a one-period lag. The effect of firm heterogeneity characteristics on the relationship between the two is further examined through subsample regressions according to the nature of enterprises and audit institutions. We find a strong negative association between ESG performance and audit fees, meaning that better ESG performance of firms in China leads to lower audit fees. Also, it is tested that the negative effect of ESG performance on audit fees is more significant when the firm is a non-state owned firm and when audited by Big Four accounting firms. The empirical results of this paper will well enrich the study on the impact of ESG performance on firms and broaden the research on the factors influencing audit fees.

The Impact of County Medical Community Reform on the Medical Service Efficiency of County-Level Public General Hospitals in China: A Case Study of Shanxi Province.

China introduced the county medical community (CMC) reform, aimed to provide high-quality medical resources to rural citizens, in 2017. This study examines the impact of the reform on the medical service efficiency of county-level public general hospitals in Shanxi Province, China. In total, 92 county-level public general hospitals from Shanxi Province were taken as the research objective, and the super-efficiency SBM-DEA model was applied to measure medical service efficiency. Further, a two-way fixed-effect model was used to evaluate the impact of CMC reform on the medical service efficiency of county-level public general hospitals by using health statistics data from 2014 to 2018. The study reveals that the CMC reform improved the medical service efficiency of county-level public general hospitals by 15.6%. Moreover, the CMC reform had regional heterogeneity in its impact on the medical service efficiency of county-level public general hospitals. The CMC reform improved the medical service efficiency of hospitals in the southern region more than in the northern region of the province. The medical service efficiency of hospitals in the central region was also improved by CMC reform, but the causal relationship was not found significant. Further, hospital-level factors (e.g., fixed assets, hospital stay, and regional health center) and environmental factors (e.g., GDP, population, urbanization rate, and government subsidies) affected the medical service efficiency of county-level public hospitals during the process of promoting the CMC reform.

Does Local Government’s Competitive Behavior to Attract Foreign Investment Affect Ecological Welfare Performance? Evidence from China

Ecological welfare performance (EWP) is an essential indicator of sustainable socioeconomic development. In China, the government-led economic development paradigm mandates that the competitive behavior of local governments is a major influencing factor on EWP. This research explores how the government’s competitive behavior to attract foreign investment affects ecological welfare performance. Based on the super-efficiency slacks-based measure (SBM) model to assess the level of EWP in China, this paper utilizes a two-way fixed-effects model to determine the impact of local governments’ foreign investment competition on EWP. The results indicate the following. (1) Although introducing foreign investment may promote regional EWP, local governments’ vicious competition in introducing foreign investment is detrimental to its improvement. (2) The effect of local governments’ foreign investment competition on EWP exhibits various heterogeneous characteristics that depend on the differences in the regional distribution and intensity of competition for fiscal revenue and expenditures. (3) Resource factor mobility has a significant moderating effect on the impact of local governments’ competition for foreign investment on EWP. Capital mobility weakens the inhibitory effect of governments’ competition for foreign investment on the enhancement of EWP, while technological mobility and labor mobility have the opposite moderating effect. These findings may clarify the impact of governments’ competition for foreign investment on EWP and provide policy guidelines and implications for other countries pursuing the expansion of foreign direct investment (FDI).

The impact of educational rewards on the diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a complex neurodevelopmental disorder that affects social interactions and communication. The prevalence of ASD has risen dramatically in recent years, but the underlying factors leading to this rise are not clear. In this paper, we test whether changes in state-level educational policy that impact school-level resources are associated with the rise in ASD diagnostic prevalence. Early identification of ASD can improve an array of outcomes for children, and school systems play an important role with identification of the condition. It is plausible that children attending schools with better resources from state governments are more likely to receive an ASD diagnosis and presumably appropriate services. We focus on one educational policy in particular, state-level rewards, which consist of a monetary transfer from state governments to school districts. To test the impact of educational rewards on ASD diagnosis, we rely on policy variation across states and time and estimate both two-way fixed effects (TWFE) models alongside recently advanced methods in the difference-in-differences (DiD) literature. Under a baseline TWFE specification we estimate that rewards policies are associated with a 18.46% increase in ASD diagnosis. Further, using DiD methods that account for bias in settings of differential policy timing, we find that the magnitude of the effect increases to 24.8%. We believe these findings to be suggestive evidence that educational rewards policies improved the likelihood of detection and diagnosis of ASD.

The bus is arriving: Population growth and public transportation ridership in rural America

The U.S. is known for having a low rate of public transportation use, especially in its rural areas. Some argue that because rural America has such a low population density, public transportation is unnecessary. Indeed, investments in public transportation have been made in the United States in recent years, but these investments have largely been concentrated in cities. However, is public transportation really unnecessary when some rural areas in the United States experience population growth? To study this question, we use national population survey data in the 2010s to examine effects of population growth on commuting patterns in modern rural America. Using a two-way fixed effects model, we find that population growth has a positive effect on the rate of public transportation commuting even in the “most rural areas” of the U.S. The main results are robust to changes to the definition of rural area, sample, and specification. We further find that changes in public transportation ridership has no correlation with commuting times.

The Link between Democratic Institutions and Population Health in the American States.

This project investigates the role of state-level institutions in explaining variation in population health in the American states. Although cross-national research has established the positive effects of democracy on population health, little attention has been given to subnational units. The authors leverage a new data set to understand how political accountability and a system of checks and balances are associated with state population health. The authors estimate error correction models and two-way fixed effects models to estimate how the strength of state-level democratic institutions is associated with infant mortality rates, life expectancy, and midlife mortality. The authors find institutions that promote political accountability are associated with lower infant mortality across the states, while those that promote checks and balances are associated with longer life expectancy. They also find that policy liberalism is associated with better health outcomes. Subnational institutions play an important role in population health outcomes, and more research is needed to understand the link between democracy and health. The authors are the first to explore the link between democratic institutions and population health within the United States, contributing to both the social science literature on the positive effects of democracy and the epidemiological literature on subnational health outcomes.

Fiscal autonomy of subnational governments and equity in healthcare resource allocation: Evidence from China.

ObjectivesPromoting equity in healthcare resource allocation (EHRA) has become a critical political agenda of governments at all levels since the ambitious Universal Health Coverage was launched in China in 2009, while the role of an important institutional variable—fiscal autonomy of subnational governments—is often overlooked. The present study was designed to determine the effect of FASG on EHRA and its potential mechanism of action and heterogeneity characteristics to provide empirical support for the research field expansion and relative policies making of EHRA.MethodsFrom the start, we utilized the Theil index and the entropy method to calculate the EHRA index of 22 provinces (2011–2020) based on the medical resource data of 287 prefecture-level cities. Furthermore, we used the two-way fixed effects model (FE) to identify and analyze the impact of FASG on EHRA and then used three robustness test strategies and two-stage least squares (2SLS) regression to verify the reliability of the conclusions and deal with potential endogeneity problems, respectively. At last, we extend the baseline regression model and obtain the two-way FE threshold model for conducting heterogeneity analysis, which makes us verify whether the baseline model has nonlinear characteristics.ResultsThe static value and the trend of interannual changes in the EHRA values in different provinces are both very different. The regression results of the two-way FE model show that FASG has a significant positive impact on EHRA, and the corresponding estimated coefficient is – 0.0849 (P < 0.01). Moreover, this promotion effect can be reflected through two channels: enhancing the intensity of government health expenditure (IGHE) and optimizing the allocation of human resources for health (AHRH). At last, under the different economic and demographic constraints, the impact of FASG on EHRA has nonlinear characteristics, i.e., after crossing a specific threshold of per capita DGP (PGDP) and population density (PD), the promotion effect is reduced until it is not statistically significant, while after crossing a particular threshold of dependency ratio (DR), the promotion effect is further strengthened and still statistically significant.ConclusionsFASG plays an essential role in promoting EHRA, which shows that subnational governments need to attach great importance to the construction of fiscal capability in the allocation of health care resources, effectively improve the equity of medical and health fiscal expenditures, and promote the sustainable improvement of the level of EHRA.

The impact of FDI technology spillover on the innovation quality of Chinese enterprises: a microperspective based on geographic proximity

PurposePrevious studies have reached inconsistent conclusions on foreign direct investment (FDI) technology spillovers and corporate innovation. The main purpose of this paper is to explore the technological spillover effects of FDI from the microperspective of firm linkages induced by geographic distance. Further analysis is conducted on the impact and mechanism of this spillover on the innovation quality of Chinese enterprises. The conclusions drawn from this paper can guide Chinese enterprises' foreign capital utilization and innovation strategy choices.Design/methodology/approachUsing the data of China's A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2019, this paper explores the role of FDI technology spillover in enterprise innovation quality through a two-way fixed-effect model. The robustness of the results is proven by substituting variables, adding industry fixed effects and excluding high-profit groups, and further using the two-stage least squares (2SLS) method to alleviate the empirical endogeneity problem.FindingsThese findings indicate that FDI technology spillover based on geographic proximity has a positive impact on the innovation quality of Chinese enterprises. However, there are different impacts for different types of enterprises. FDI technology spillover has a positive impact on the innovation quality of non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs) and small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), while it has no effect on state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and large enterprises. The authors also find that the degree of financing constraints and R&D investment are important transmission mechanisms between FDI technology spillover and enterprise innovation quality.Research limitations/implicationsThis study ignores industry characteristics when considering foreign enterprises around Chinese enterprises. In fact, technology spillover effects differ across industries. When the authors matched microdata to regions, only the provincial level was considered. Therefore, there is still room for further research. In future research, the authors should consider industry characteristics and group foreign enterprises and Chinese enterprises in the same industry and in different industries to explore industry differences in technology spillover. In addition, when matching corporate data to regions, the authors can match to the city level and draw city-level conclusions.Practical implicationsThis study is different from previous studies that focus on the quantity of enterprise innovation or innovation output. The authors focus on the role of technological spillovers in the quality of Chinese enterprise innovation, enriching research in the field of enterprise innovation quality. In addition, the current FDI technology spillover indicators are technically difficult to measure at the micro level. The authors draw inspiration from the theory of the geographical structure of financial supply and combine the creation methods of macro and micro indicators in existing articles in other fields. The authors ingeniously construct a new FDI technical spillover indicator. This indicator combines the commonly used regional FDI technology spillover with the geographic proximity of enterprises at the microlevel by constructing an interaction term between the two. This indicator not only alleviates the endogeneity problem to a certain extent but also has implications for future research in the field of FDI technology spillovers at the micro level.Social implications(1) FDI technology spillovers are an effective way to improve the innovation quality of local enterprises, especially for non-SOEs and SMEs. Therefore, The authors suggest that in the context of dual circulation, the Chinese government should continue to open wider to the outside world and encourage foreign enterprises to invest in China. (2) In future development, managers of SOEs and large enterprises should create an innovation incentive mechanism. Moreover, they should change their vertical management structure and make full use of their policy advantages and budget advantages to increase innovation activities. In the process of acquiring technology spillovers, enterprises need to solve their own financing constraints.Originality/valueFirst, this study solves a technical problem. It is technically difficult to measure the current FDI technical spillover indicators at the micro level. This study innovatively constructs a new FDI technology spillover indicator that combines regional FDI technology spillovers with the microperspective of the geographical proximity of enterprises. This approach not only alleviates certain endogeneity problems in the empirical evidence but also enriches relevant research in the field of technology spillover. In addition, this study focuses on the impact and mechanism of this spillover, which addresses the current research gap among previous studies that mainly focus on innovation quantity and ignore innovation quality.

The Impact Mechanism of Environmental Information Disclosure on Corporate Sustainability Performance—Micro-Evidence from China

As an effective regulatory tool, environmental information disclosure is significant in promoting the green upgrading of industrial structures and achieving green transformation of enterprises. In order to explore the impact mechanism of environmental information disclosure on corporate sustainability performance, this paper constructs a two-way fixed-effect model using balanced panel data of Chinese A-share listed manufacturing companies from 2015 to 2020. We find that environmental information disclosure significantly impacts green innovation, thereby improving corporate sustainability performance. Furthermore, financing constraints inhibit the impact of environmental disclosure on sustainability performance, while female directors have only symbolic effect. The reliability of the paper’s findings is verified by replacing the dependent variable and introducing instrumental variables. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect of environmental information disclosure on corporate sustainability performance is more substantial among non-state and eastern and heavily polluting enterprises. Comprehensive analysis from the financing perspective shows the differences in the moderating effects of debt and equity financing regarding the impact mechanism. This study enriches the theory of green innovation and provides financing strategies for enterprises to achieve green transformation, as well as suggestions for improving the government environmental information disclosure system.

Fiscal Decentralisation, Economic Development, and Carbon Emissions: Empirical Analysis Based on the Provincial Static and Dynamic Panel Data

The target 'Carbon Peak' and 'Carbon Neutral' in China is a key strategic choice to promote environmental regulation and high-quality economic growth. Public finance, as the bedrock and pillar of national governance, has a significant influence on China's macroeconomics and policy execution. This paper selects provincial panel data of China from 2010 to 2019, together with a two-way fixed-effect model and a Difference-GMM model, in order to conduct an empirical analysis of the impact of fiscal decentralisation and economic development on carbon emissions. The findings reveal that fiscal decentralisation has a considerable positive impact on carbon emissions, and that economic development and carbon emissions have an inverted U-shaped connection. Furthermore, economic development may reduce fiscal decentralisation's contribution to carbon emissions. In addition, there is a dynamic lag impact associated with carbon emissions. As a result, to achieve green and low-carbon transformation in China, advanced and long-term planning is required, as well as the optimisation of local government evaluation mechanisms and the application of fiscal funds.

Fiscal Decentralisation, Economic Development, and Carbon Emissions: Empirical Analysis Based on the Provincial Static and Dynamic Panel Data

The target 'Carbon Peak' and 'Carbon Neutral' in China is a key strategic choice to promote environmental regulation and high-quality economic growth. Public finance, as the bedrock and pillar of national governance, has a significant influence on China's macroeconomics and policy execution. This paper selects provincial panel data of China from 2010 to 2019, together with a two-way fixed-effect model and a Difference-GMM model, in order to conduct an empirical analysis of the impact of fiscal decentralisation and economic development on carbon emissions. The findings reveal that fiscal decentralisation has a considerable positive impact on carbon emissions, and that economic development and carbon emissions have an inverted U-shaped connection. Furthermore, economic development may reduce fiscal decentralisation's contribution to carbon emissions. In addition, there is a dynamic lag impact associated with carbon emissions. As a result, to achieve green and low-carbon transformation in China, advanced and long-term planning is required, as well as the optimisation of local government evaluation mechanisms and the application of fiscal funds.

Can Local Government’s Attention Allocated to Green Innovation Improve the Green Innovation Efficiency?—Evidence from China

Green innovation is an important way to integrate China’s innovation-driven strategy with sustainable development strategy. Adopting the attention-based view in policy implementation analysis, this paper constructs an analytical framework of how the local government’s attention paid to green innovation (LGA-GI) affects green innovation efficiency (GIE). Using the panel data of 30 provincial administrative regions in China from 2009 to 2020, we describe the temporal and spatial characteristics of LGA-GI, empirically test the impact of LGA-GI on GIE through two-way fixed effects models, and then compare the effects in the three stages of green innovation. The major findings are as follows: (1) the LGA-GI in China from 2009 to 2020 shows an upward trend with mild fluctuations, and peaks three times in 2012, 2016, and 2018. The spatial distribution of LGA-GI has changed from a pattern of “low in the middle” (low LGA-GI in the central region) to “continuous highs with scattered lows”. (2) LGA-GI has a significant positive effect on the overall GIE, but the effect is concentrated in the stage of knowledge absorption and commercialization, rather than in the stage of knowledge innovation. The implication of these results is that local governments need to allocate more attention to green innovation and maintain its continuity, and governments at all levels should distribute policy implementation resources based on the characteristics of different green innovation stages.

Are GreenLeaders also performance leaders? An econometric analysis of TripAdvisor hotel certification of GreenLeaders

This paper aims to investigate the impact of the GreenLeaders designation on hotel performance under the joint theoretical framework of environmental corporate social responsibility and social identity theory. We focus on 1,198 individual hotel properties from five major cities in Texas between 2010 and 2019. A two-way fixed-effects model is applied to model monthly revenue per available room (RevPAR) and TripAdvisor ratings for each hotel. Results show that GreenLeaders certification leads to a 6.00% increase in hotels’ monthly RevPAR and a 4.25% increase in hotels’ monthly average TripAdvisor rating. This impact grew over time during the research period. The findings also unveil a set of moderating variables, such as hotel class and chain affiliation. More specifically, the effect of GreenLeaders certification is larger for upscale and independent hotels. The major results are also confirmed through a robustness analysis using propensity-score-based weighting and placebo tests. Lastly, implications are provided for hoteliers and investors.

Air quality improvement effect and future contributions of carbon trading pilot programs in China

The carbon trading policy is a market-based tool aimed at reducing carbon emissions and may simultaneously yield a combined air quality improvement effect. This study employs a two-way fixed-effect model to estimate the causal relationship between daily carbon trading volumes and air pollution from 2015 to 2020. Results show that a one percent increase in daily carbon trading volumes leads to a reduction of 0.23% in PM2.5 and 0.26% in PM10. In addition to particulate matter, the carbon market can significantly reduce SO2 and air quality index. We also examine provincial and regional heterogeneities and find an apparent reduction effect in Beijing, Guangdong, Hubei, Tianjin, and cities in the more economically developed eastern region. Notably, our estimations indicate that the carbon market’s impact on reducing air pollution is most significant annually during the carbon quota compliance period and tends to intensify over the years. Furthermore, we predict the carbon trading scale to meet China’s stringent future air quality improvement target, indicating that the carbon trading volumes are projected to be 450 million tons in 2035 under the high contribution scenarios. These findings can provide insightful policy implications for China and other countries to establish more flexible and well-rounded carbon trading policies.

Effects of Purchase Restrictions on Smoking During Pregnancy: An Analysis of U.S. Birth Records.

In December 2019, the minimum legal sales age (MLSA) for tobacco products in the United States was raised from 18 to 21 years as a measure of preventing smoking initiation. Smoking during pregnancy, which causes maternal, fetal, and infant morbidity and mortality, is a major public health concern. We first study the effects of purchase restrictions on smoking during different stages of pregnancy covering the entire United States and using the records of all live births during 2014-2018 by birthing people aged 18-21 years. Our identification strategy utilizes the variation in the MLSA of tobacco products over time and across counties in the United States during 2014-2018 using a two-way fixed effects model, modified to accommodate a partially observable treatment indicator. The results show that 37.4% of potential smokers in our study population would have been prevented from smoking before pregnancy, 50.5% during the first trimester, 53.4% during the second trimester, and 14.8% during the third trimester if the law prevented selling tobacco products to them in the locality they live. A purchase restriction is estimated to cause the smoking intensity of those who smoke, the intensive margin, to drop by 5.4% before pregnancy, 10.4% during the first trimester, 14.8% during the second trimester, and 5.2% during the third trimester. Our results show that purchase restrictions are highly effective in preventing smoking among birthing people in the 18-21 years age group. The effect on smoking prevalence during the first and second trimesters is more pronounced. Many countries around the world have recently tightened age-based purchase restriction policies as a tobacco control measure. We first study the effects of purchase restrictions on smoking during different stages of pregnancy using the birth records of all pregnancies in the United States by birthing people aged 18-21 years during 2014-2018. The study utilizes the variation in the MLSA of tobacco products over time and across counties during that period. Our results show that purchase restrictions are highly effective in preventing smoking among birthing people in the 18-21 years age group.