Two-step GMM Estimator Research Articles

Renewable Energy and CO2 Emissions in Top Natural Resource Rents Depending Countries: The Role of Governance

This study analyzes the relationship between renewable energy and CO2 emissions in top natural resource depending countries over the period 2000–2015. An important contribution of this study is to assess the role of governance. The Ordinary Least Squares Fixed effects Generalized Least Squares methods and two-step GMM estimators are used for panel data. The empirical results show that renewable energy has significant negative impact on per capita CO2 emissions. The estimates show that 1 percentage point increase in renewable energy consumption leads to 1.25% decrease in CO2 emissions per capita. We also find that renewable energy consumption decreases CO2 emissions faster in countries with higher rule of law and voice and accountability. gross domestic product per capita has inverted U-shaped relationship with CO2 emissions.

Industrialization and CO2 Emissions in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Mitigating Role of Renewable Electricity

This study aims to explore the relationship between industry value added, renewable energy, and CO2 emissions in a sample of 44 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2000–2015. This study makes several important contributions to extant research. While existing research was focused on the renewable energy-CO2 emissions nexus, the current study assesses the moderating role of the renewables sector in the industrialization-CO2 emissions relationship. In addition, this study considers whether EKC relationships will hold after accounting for structural transformations (including industrial contributions to GDPs). Moreover, we are revising the existence of the EKC framework for the Sub-Saharan African countries. Using a two-step system GMM estimator, we found that the share of industry in GDP has a significant positive impact on CO2 emissions, while renewable electricity output reduces CO2 emissions. If causal, a one percentage point increase in renewable electricity output reduces carbon emissions by 0.22%. Moreover, the renewable energy sector then mediates the positive effect of industry value added on CO2 emissions. We also find evidence for the statistical significance of the inverted U-shaped relationship between GDP per capita and CO2 emissions.

Does Global Value Chain Participation Enhance Export Diversification?

This paper examines the effect of global value chain (GVC) participation on export diversification using a dataset covering 134 countries from 2002 to 2018. Applying the two-step System GMM estimator, we find that GVC participation contributes to the diversification of both export products and export partners. Our empirical results further reveal that this positive effect powerfully works through backward GVC participation, while the impact of forward GVC participation on export product diversification varies among countries with different levels of trade liberalization and policy stability.

Bank Capital Structure Dynamics and Covid-19: Evidence from South Asia

The severity in terms of economic activity of the Covid-19 crisis was higher than the global financial crisis. Covid-19 has not only challenged the economic activity across the world but has put to test how the bank operates under the global crises. The objective of this paper is to identify the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the South Asian banking sector. We investigate if South Asian banks have target leverage and how the Covid-19 crisis impacted their capital structure dynamics. To fulfill the objective, past data on all banks of South Asian countries listed in the Thomson Reuter Refinitiv were considered. The sample ended up including quarterly data of banks from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan Nepal and Afghanistan. Engle-Granger's two-step procedure for error correction and two-step GMM estimation was employed to measure the speed of adjustment and the impact of Covid-19 on bank capital. The study found that the capital structure determinants favor the static trade-off theory for South Asian banks. It is also observed that South Asian banks’ capital was negatively impacted by Covid-19. The analysis supports the view of leverage convergence for the capital structure. This study improves our understanding of the capital structure dynamics of banks in response to exogenous shocks in South Asia.

Bank Capital Structure Dynamics and Covid-19: Evidence from South Asia

The severity in terms of economic activity of the Covid-19 crisis was higher than the global financial crisis. Covid-19 has not only challenged the economic activity across the world but has put to test how the bank operates under the global crises. The objective of this paper is to identify the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the South Asian banking sector. We investigate if South Asian banks have target leverage and how the Covid-19 crisis impacted their capital structure dynamics. To fulfill the objective, past data on all banks of South Asian countries listed in the Thomson Reuter Refinitiv were considered. The sample ended up including quarterly data of banks from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan Nepal and Afghanistan. Engle-Granger's two-step procedure for error correction and two-step GMM estimation was employed to measure the speed of adjustment and the impact of Covid-19 on bank capital. The study found that the capital structure determinants favor the static trade-off theory for South Asian banks. It is also observed that South Asian banks’ capital was negatively impacted by Covid-19. The analysis supports the view of leverage convergence for the capital structure. This study improves our understanding of the capital structure dynamics of banks in response to exogenous shocks in South Asia.

Analysis of the Financing Structure of China’s Listed New Energy Companies under the Goal of Peak CO2 Emissions and Carbon Neutrality

Under China’s “Dual Carbon” strategic goal, electric energy substitution on the energy consumption side and clean substitution on the energy supply side have become an important path to achieve peak CO2 emissions and carbon neutrality. Adjusting the energy structure and encouraging new energy to replace traditional energy is an important manifestation of China’s energy supply revolution. Therefore, China’s new energy companies have grown rapidly over the past decade. The development and growth of this industry is inseparable from government policy support. The profitability and economy are essential for the new energy industry to support its sustainable development., especially the choice of business models such as operation model and financing structures. Therefore, we build extended panel vector autoregression (PVAR) models with two-step system GMM(SYS-GMM) estimator which introduced predetermined and strictly exogenous variables to explore the dynamic correlation between financing structure and economic performance of China’s new energy public companies. The number of patent approvals and financial leverage are introduced as exogenous control variables. The results show that although the increase in costs caused by financing behavior will have a negative impact on the company’s return on equity in the short term, with the rational investment and utilization of funds, the negative impact will gradually weaken. Listed new energy companies can effectively use financing funds, and the use of different financing tools has different effects on company performance. Although debt financing can help promote the company’s profitability, it is detrimental to its future growth capacity.

Does economic policy uncertainty affect bank earnings opacity? Evidence from China

Uncertainty about economic policy (EPU) in today's interconnected world and its impact worldwide is more significant than ever before. Thus, this study examines EPU's impact on the bank's earnings opacity of the Chinese banking industry, using the two-step system GMM estimator and the time covering 2011–2018. Our finding shows a negative and statistically significant relationship between EPU and bank earnings opacity, implying that the Chinese banking sector decreases earnings opacity in times of high EPU to earn trust and show good banks’ financial image. Moreover, our finding reveals that the effect of EPU on earnings opacity relies on the banks’ financial strength. This study recommends that a policy to reduce earnings opacity should be in place and also the supervisory capability and financial regulation should be strengthened. Moreover, the regulators should be more vigilant while making economic policies during high economic uncertainties.

COVID-19-induced Returns, Attention, Sentiments and Social Isolation: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Model

This article develops a dynamic panel model to examine the association among coronavirus outbreak, investor attention, social isolation, investor sentiments and stock returns in the German Stock exchange. The results of the two-step GMM estimator show a significant effect of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange after controlling for calendar anomalies, meteorological conditions, country-specific factors and oil returns. Results also show that a higher level of stock returns during social isolation (lockdown period) is explained by investor attention to buy underpriced stocks. Thus, temporary social isolation enhances an investor’s ability to make better investment decisions. Investor sentiment indicators (momentum and liquidity) are also positively associated with the stock return and partially mediate the COVID-returns link, but they have no direct effect on investor attention. The stock market attracts investor attention under good news shocks (recovered cases) when investor sentiments are optimistic. Our results are robust across the transparency level of firms and their size.

Impact of general trust on bank risk-taking: the moderating effect of confidence in banks

PurposeThis study examines the effect of general trust (GT) and confidence in banks (CIB) on bank risk-taking. Besides, it explores the moderating role of CIB on the relationship between GT and bank risk-taking.Design/methodology/approachSecondary data was obtained from the World Value Survey, World Bank and BankFocus from 2011 to 2018. Two-step system GMM estimator was used to examine the links between the GT and CIB with bank risk-taking in MENA region.FindingsResults indicated that both GT and CIB negatively influenced bank risk-taking. Moreover, CIB weakened the negative relationship between GT and bank risk-taking. However, the results were different for MENA region as compared to the full sample.Originality/valueThe studies on the link between trust and bank risk-taking are either carried out on an international sample or using a developed economies sample. However, the authors believe that developing economies might exhibit different relationships due to cultural and structural differences present in developed countries. Besides, the authors believe that testing the moderating effect of CIB could shed more light on the differences between developing and developed countries.

Is South Asian Free Trade Area Desirable? Evidence from Dynamic Gravity Models

This study investigates the desirability of the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA), considering its potential in generating trade creation and trade diversion effects by controlling the trade persistence, which is often ignored by the previous studies. In this regard, dynamic gravity models on South Asian imports, exports, and total trade are used over the period from 2003 to 2013. Results for the two-step system GMM estimator confirmed the desirability of SAFTA with the presence of significant intra-bloc and extra-bloc trade expansions. Further, SAFTA depicted a significant anticipation effect as trade expansions were significant even one year prior to its implementation, and they continued to be significant until 2009. Further, this study empirically confirms the potential of SAFTA in mitigating the region’s political tension, especially when implementing the trade strategy. Thus, it is recommended to bring SAFTA to its full potential by further reducing tariffs and removing sensitive lists.

FDI and domestic investment in Africa: Evidence on the role of local conditions

This paper investigates the impact of foreign direct investment on domestic investment and the role of local conditions. Local conditions determine the extent to which host countries can absorb and hence benefit from FDI. We assess conditions under which FDI is likely to be beneficial or inimical to development in Africa. We apply the fixed effects and the two-step system GMM estimation techniques for 48 African economies from 1980 to 2016. We use gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) as a percentage of GDP as a proxy for domestic investment (DI) as our dependent variable. We use the following control variables: growth rate in real GDP (RGDP); savings as a percentage of GDP; and inflation. We also control for openness, financial sector development and institutional quality. We use annual data from the World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI), the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) International Financial Statistics, the UNCTAD database and the Freedom House database. We find that there is a negative relationship between FDI and domestic investment, suggesting that FDI has a crowding-out effect. The negative association may also imply that countries with lower domestic investment attract more FDI because there are more domestically unsatisfied opportunities for foreign investors. However, the negative relationship between FDI and domestic investment does not necessarily imply that FDI has no benefits. It could as well be that the positive benefits from FDI in Africa may be as a result of an increase in total factor productivity (TFP) which more than compensates for the decline in domestic investment. The study also finds that improved institutions and trade openness mitigate the negative effect of FDI on domestic investment while financial market development exacerbates the negative effect. Policy efforts aimed at attracting FDI should be balanced with the imperative of strengthening institutions and domestic firms. A number of scholars have shown that that even in those countries where FDI has been more productive, domestic investment is more effective than FDI in promoting growth. Investment incentives should therefore not discriminate against domestic investors. Market regulations to dismantle the monopolistic tendencies of some foreign investors must be strengthened.

Crime, Correction, Education and Welfare – What Role Does the Government Play?

This paper compares the effectiveness of the impact of government spending on welfare and education with that of law enforcement and correction on crime rate. Using data from fifty US States across a time period of 1994-2014, linear regression with Beck and Katz (1995) panel corrected standard errors reveals that public welfare and education spending can potentially lower violent and property crime rates but law enforcement spending can only deter property crime. However, correctional spending can corroborate both types of crimes. Further, results of two-step GMM estimation confirm the crime-reducing impact of welfare spending but not that of education or law enforcement spending. This results in the policy implication that more resources be allocated towards welfare programs. We also find little to no evidence of the presence of crowding out of one category of spending by another.

Effect of exchange rate uncertainty on bilateral trade performance in SAARC countries: a gravity model analysis

PurposeExchange rate uncertainty leads to an indecisive environment for imports and exports that would condense international trade, foreign direct investment, trade earnings, trade volumes, economic growth and welfare. This study aims to examine, empirically, the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on bilateral trade performance, focusing on eight SAARC member economies using the popular modified gravity model of trade.Design/methodology/approachThe paper includes eight SAARC members – Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka panel data set over the period 2005–2018. The authors consider both standardized value (standard deviation) and conditional variance model to determine volatility of exchange rate. Primarily, ordinary least squares, random effects and fixed effects estimation techniques are employed to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility. Endogeneity and robustness of the findings have been tested using the simultaneity-adjusted model and dynamic panel data two-step system GMM estimation techniques.FindingsEmpirical findings endorse the view that exchange rate volatility lowers trade flows in the SAARC regions. However, this adverse effect of exchange rate uncertainty on trade is pretty small. The negative correlation between exchange rate volatility and bilateral trade remains consistent and significant after controlling of simultaneous causality, autocorrelation, year effects, country-pair heterogeneity and endogeneity irrespective of panel data estimation techniques and different measures of volatility.Originality/valueThe present paper is original work.

The Effect of Financial Sector Development on Economic Growth of Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries

Finance-growth nexus is among the main debatable issue in economics and policymaking. So, this research tried to look at the effect of financial sector development on the economic growth of 25 sub-Saharan Africa countries by using panel data for time 2010-2017. Precisely, three dynamic panel data models which look the effect of financial sector depth, access and efficiency on economic growth were estimated by two-step system GMM estimation. In this research, credit extended to the private sector per GDP, commercial bank branch per 100,000 adult population, and Return to assets were used as a proxy for financial sector depth, access, and efficiency, respectively. Accordingly, the results revealed financial sector depth, access, and efficiency have a positive and statistically significant effect on the economic growth of these countries. It is therefore recommended for the concerned bodies that broadening the depth of financial institutions by giving more credit for the private sector is essential. Besides, the financial institutions will have to be expanded to increase their accessibility to the mass and have to take some measures which promote their efficiency.

On the direct and indirect effects of the Great East Japan earthquake on self rated health through social connections: Mediation analysis

The Great East Japan Earthquake created health hazards for many people. Using Panel Data gathered in Iwanuma city, Japan, at two points in time (in 2010 before the quake, and in 2013 after the quake), we found that the high degree of housing damage negatively affected victims’ self rated health (SRH) (direct effect), and decreased the levels of their social connections, which in turn also had a harmful effect on their SRH (indirect effect). We also found that although the direct impacts of earthquakes disappear relatively quickly, the harmful indirect effects associated with a decrease in social connections are slower to dissipate. We conducted a first-difference two-step GMM estimation to consider the possible problem of endogeneity. The results support the above conclusion, and show that in the short-term, the indirect impacts of the earthquake accounted for 55 % of all the impacts experienced.

Economic policy uncertainty and bank credit growth: Evidence from European banks

Using a sample of 2977 private and listed banks in the EU-5 countries (the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Italy, France) for the years 2009–2018, this paper explores the impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on credit growth. Using panel data fixed effects methodology and controlling for endogeneity using two-step difference GMM estimators, our findings indicate that uncertainty in economic policies hampers the credit growth of European banks. Our bank type-based analyses indicate that the effect is mainly valid for cooperative banks. Additional analyses imply that the negative impact of EPU on credit growth is more pronounced in civil law countries, increases with debt maturity, and weakens for banks with a larger number of employees and branches. Furthermore, the unfavorable effects are stronger in well-capitalized banks, banks with foreign subsidiaries, and banks with a higher share of wholesale funding. We also provide several policy implications for different economic actors.

Credit Redistribution by Listed Manufacturing Firms in Pakistan and the Moderating Role of Financial Depth

An enhancement in the financial depth (FD) increases the availability of formal credit to firms. Resultantly credit redistribution (CR) by firms is likely to be reduced as they require less trade credit (TC). To provide evidence, how do managers respond to changes in financial depth while making adjustments in their trade credit policy, this paper aims to study the impact of financial depth on credit redistribution by listed manufacturing firms (LMFs). For the firm-level variables, we used a data set of 327 firms listed on PSX for the period 2005 to 2018. Private credit to GDP ratio and market capitalization to GDP ratio are used as proxies for financial depth. Unlike earlier studies, we applied a two-step System GMM estimator to control the endogeneity. The results of the regression analysis display a positive relationship between the use and the supply of trade credit by LMFs. It reveals that LMFs redistribute credit to their customers through trade credit channel. We found a significant and negative impact of FD on the supply of TC by LMFs. Further, we established that financial depth as a moderator has a buffering impact on the credit redistribution by listed firms. The study highlights the moderating role of FD and suggests the financial policymakers of firms to modify their credit policies in response to changes in financial depth. For future research, we suggest the investigation of the effect of financial policy interventions on credit redistribution by small and non-listed firms.

The effects of financial and operational hedging on company value: The case of Malaysian multinationals

This study examines the value effects of financial and operational hedging in a managed floating exchange rate regime with strict limitations on the trading of Malaysian Ringgit for a sample of 109 Malaysian multinationals from 2004–2018. Using Tobin’s Q as a proxy for company value, the two-step system GMM estimation results show that, on average, derivatives hedging creates a value premium range of 7.88–8.21 % in the short-run, and 18.81–19.80 % in the long-run. This value premium emerged both after controlling for non-operational foreign exchange profits (losses), and its two components: transaction and translation profits (losses). In contrast, foreign debt hedging, on average, creates a value discount range of 8.19–8.54 % in the short-run and 12.70–13.12 % in the long-run. No evidence shows value effect for operational hedging though. The positive value effect of derivatives hedging should motivate managers of Malaysian multinationals to hedge foreign currency exposure through derivatives and encourage policymakers to take steps in developing derivatives market and products. However, the negative value effect of foreign debt hedging indicates that it destroys value. This negative effect might reflect two potential causes; higher company risk due to FC debt financing, and improper hedging practices including high costs of hedging in the underdeveloped derivatives market. These potential causes need further empirical evaluations.

Government ideology and economic freedom

This paper tests the widespread belief that right-wing governments tend to promote economic freedom while left-wing ones prefer more control over the economy. Using annual data for 106 countries over the period 1975-2015 and a two-step system GMM estimator, this study shows that right-wing governments are indeed more prone to promote economic freedom and to deregulate the economy. It also finds that this effect seems to be stronger in developing/emerging economies than in more developed countries. Moreover, the analysis of the broad dimensions of economic freedom indicates that right-wing governments tend to act by improving monetary soundness and freedom to trade internationally and by easing regulations that restrict entry into markets. Mainstream left-wing governments do not seem to affect economic freedom, however populist left-wing parties, when in office, are found to have a detrimental effect.

Can profit and loss sharing (PLS) financing instruments reduce the credit risk of Islamic banks?

An Islamic bank is an interest-free financial institution that is growing rapidly in both Muslim and non-Muslim countries. It provides loans based on both PLS and non-PLS concepts, where the PLS concept shares both profit and loss with the customers, while the non-PLS concept allows charging a fixed profit rate. The customers are treated as partners who invest either labor or an equal portion of capital. The PLS financing raises an issue of whether the Islamic bank is able to recover the financing amount which is disbursed without any form of collateral. Therefore, this paper explores the possible implication of PLS theory and examines whether the PLS financing instrument reduces the credit risk of Islamic banks. PLS financing is a focus variable, while bank-specific and macroeconomic variables are considered as control variables that enable us to draw a reliable and unbiased result. The study evaluates several hypotheses by employing two-step system GMM estimation technique. It offers several outcomes; PLS financing instrument reduces credit risk. The bank-specific and macroeconomic variables have a mixed effect on credit risk. The study suggests significant policy implications for the Islamic banks for sustaining the competitive banking industries.