Two-sector Small Open Economy Model Research Articles

Sustainable finance and climate change: Wasteful but a political commitment device?

Promoting investment in low carbon “clean” sectors has gained popularity over the last years under the heading of sustainable finance, at the same time raising concerns about adverse welfare effects of such policies. We analyze the political economy of subsidizing investment in “clean” industries in a stylized two-sector small open economy model with irreversible investment and reelection risks. We show that sustainable finance has a welfare cost if more targeted climate policy instruments are available. However, sustainable finance may be used by incumbent governments as an instrument to influence environmental policy decisions of future governments, which may have different preferences. Our model also offers an explanation for the political polarization about sustainable finance and climate policy currently observed in the United States.

Inflation-linked public debt in emerging economies

This study reports a set of stylized facts about inflation-linked (IL) public debt in emerging economies. On average, emerging economies issue 23% of their local currency (LC) public debt linked to inflation. IL debt issuance is countercyclical, increases in periods of nominal exchange rate depreciations, and substitutes foreign currency (FC) and non-indexed local currency debt. A two-sector small-open economy model of public debt composition can deliver the business-cycle properties of IL debt and shows that, during crises, amid nominal exchange rate depreciations, IL debt becomes cheaper to issue. The study finds evidence of IL rates decreasing in about half of the most recent crises in emerging economies. Finally, the study compares IL rates to FC and LC rates and concludes that, for some countries, IL rates are below LC rates, even after accounting for expected inflation.

Offshoring and unemployment in a credit-constrained economy

This paper develops a two-sector small open economy model of offshoring where product markets are perfectly competitive, but capital and labor markets exhibit frictions. Individuals differ with respect to their managerial ability, and choose to become entrepreneurs or workers depending on profit opportunities and labor market conditions. The model generates three groups: low-income workers facing the prospect of unemployment, middle-income entrepreneurs producing domestically, and high-income entrepreneurs offshoring some tasks abroad. Lowering financial frictions induces more individuals to become entrepreneurs, increases the masses of offshoring firms and tasks, and improves personal income and welfare distribution. It reduces unemployment when tasks are less substitutable and labor share in production is high. The paper also investigates the impact of reducing offshoring costs and labor market frictions on the mass of entrepreneurs, decision to offshore, income distribution, and unemployment.

News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries*

AbstractThis article explores the effect of news shocks in open economies using worldwide giant oil and gas discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output—the delay between a discovery and production is on average four to six years. We first analyze the effects of a discovery in a two-sector small open economy model with a resource sector. We then estimate the effects of giant oil and gas discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil or gas discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first five years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, whereas GDP does not increase until after five years. Employment rates fall slightly and remain low for a sustained period.

News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries

This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.

Consumption Tax, Nontraded Goods and Welfare

This paper studies the welfare effects of a consumption tax rise based on the two-sector small open economy model of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995) and Lane (1997). The main findings of our analysis are that 1) in the case of free trade, the consumption tax rise has no effect on welfare, 2) when there is the nontraded goods sector, the consumption tax rise has a negative effect on welfare, and 3) the larger the share of nontraded goods in consumption is, the larger the negative welfare effect of consumption tax will be.

DEBT DENOMINATION AND DEFAULT RISK IN EMERGING MARKETS

This paper develops a two-sector small open economy model to analyze the effects of the currency denomination of debt on default risk and interest rates in emerging market economies. Default risk is determined endogenously and depends on the incentives for repayment. The economy can borrow using tradable-denominated nonindexed bonds or bonds whose return is indexed to the domestic price index, which are used as proxies for foreign currency and domestic currency debt, respectively. The model predicts that foreign currency debt leads to lower default risk for high output levels and domestic currency debt reduces the default risk for low output levels. Although the effect of debt denomination on default risk changes with the output level, the default rate of the economy and average interest rates decline as domestic currency borrowing increases. In addition, domestic currency borrowing is found to reduce the countercyclicality of interest rates and the trade balance.

Sectoral labor adjustment and monetary policy in a small open economy

This paper studies the welfare implications of sectoral labor adjustment cost in a two-sector small open economy model with sticky prices. We find that, when the economy faces external shocks, if monetary policy can stabilize the real economy, then sectoral labor market adjustment cost will lead to welfare loss. However, if monetary policy such as fixed exchange rates cannot stabilize real variables, then some degree of labor market friction will improve welfare instead and the gain will be significant. As a result, the welfare gap between flexible exchange rates and fixed exchange rates decreases with sectoral labor market friction. This is because the friction can offset some of the nominal rigidity and become a substitute for monetary policy to stabilize the real economy.

Sectoral Labor Adjustment and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy

This paper studies the welfare implications of sectoral labor adjustment cost in a two-sector small open economy model with sticky prices. We find that, when the economy faces external shocks, if monetary policy can stabilize the real economy, then sectoral labor market adjustment cost will lead to welfare loss. However, if monetary policy such as fixed exchange rates cannot stabilize real variables, then some degree of labor market friction will improve welfare instead and the gain will be significant. As a result, the welfare gap between flexible exchange rates and fixed exchange rates decreases with sectoral labor market friction. This is because the friction can offset some of the nominal rigidity and become a substitute for monetary policy to stabilize the real economy.

A two-sector small open economy model with monopolistically competitive non traded markets

Résumé Cet article développe un modèle d’équilibre général dynamique à deux secteurs avec concurrence monopolistique sur le marché des biens non échangeables. Les effets des chocs de dépenses publiques et de productivité sont simulés numériquement. Conformément aux résultats empiriques, le modèle génère des corrélations positives entre épargne et investissement. En outre, le degré d’intensité concurrentielle sur le marché des biens non échangeables affecte les réactions du solde courant et de l’investissement après un choc de demande ou d’offre. Enfin, les résultats numériques montrent qu’un modèle à deux secteurs en concurrence parfaite fournit un cadre théorique trop restrictif pour étudier le comportement du prix relatif des biens non échangeables. Classification JEL : E20 ; E62 ; F31 ; F41.

Monopolistic Competition and the Dependent Economy Model

This paper explores the consequences of introducing a monopolistic competition in an intertemporal two-sector small open economy model which produces traded and non traded goods. It is assumed that the non traded sector is the locus of the imperfectly competition. Our analysis shows that markup depends on the composition of aggregate non traded demand and is therefore endogenously determined in the model. Calibrating the model with OECD parameters, the effects of fiscal and technological shocks are simulated. Our findings are as follows. First, the model is consistent with the observed saving-investment correlations found in the data. Second, unlike the perfectly framework and in accordance with empirical studies, fiscal shocks cause real appreciation of the relative price of non traded goods, which in turn enlarges the responses of current account and investment. Third, the model is consistent with the empirical report that technological shocks result in current account deficits and investment rises. Fourth, the strength of the relative price appreciation following sector productivity differentials, i.e. the Balassa-Samuelson effect, is affected by the monopolistic competition hypothesis. Assume perfect competition when it is not, biases upward estimates of the Balassa-Samuelson effect.

Permanent vs. Temporary Fiscal Expansion in a Two-Sector Small Open Economy Model

This contribution shows that the duration of a fisscal shock together with sectoral capital intensity matter in determining the dynamic and steady-state effects in an intertemporal-optimizing two-sector small open economy model. First, unlike a permanent shock, net foreign asset position always worsens in the long-run after a transitory fiscal expansion. Second, steady-state changes in physical capital depend on sectoral capital-labor ratios but their signs may be reversed compared to the corresponding permanent public policy. Third, investment and the current account may now adjust non monotonically. Fourth, a temporary fiscal shock always crowds-out (crowds-in) investment in the long-run whenever the non traded (traded) sector is more capital intensive.

Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy Under Segmented Asset Markets and Sticky Prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a two-sector small open economy model under segmented asset markets and sticky prices. We solve the Ramsey problem under full commitment, and characterize the optimal monetary policy in a calibrated version of the model. The findings of the paper are threefold. First, the Ramsey solution mimics the allocations under flexible prices. Second, under the optimal policy the volatility of non-tradable inflation is close to zero. Third, stabilizing nontradable inflation is optimal regardless of the financial structure of the small open economy. Even for a moderate degree of price stickiness, implementing a monetary policy that mitigates asset market segmentation is highly distortionary. This last result suggests that policymakers should resort to other policy instruments in order to correct financial imperfections.

Production Sharing and Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy

Production sharing and vertical specialization account for a significant share of trade between developed and developing countries. The Mexican maquiladora industry provides an ideal example of production sharing in a small open economy. The typical ‘maquila’ imports most of its inputs from and exports all its output to the United States. This article tries to determine to what extent production sharing, as in the Mexican maquiladora, can serve as a transmission mechanism of business cycles in small open economies. We utilize a simple two-sector small open economy model of real business cycles that incorporates production sharing in the traded sector. The transmission channel of business cycles is introduced in the model via demand shocks to the traded sector, originated in the United States’ manufacturing sector. The model is successful in replicating real business cycles statistics for the maquiladora sector, as well as some of the characteristics of the non-traded sector.