To examine differences in the explanatory power of variables thought to discriminate between students who smoke and students who have reduced (or quit). The design is a two-group test of differences on 33 variables identified from previous studies of adolescent smoking and cessation as potential discriminators, which represent a variety of perceptual, behavioral, social, and psychological factors. Data are from a national survey of U.S. high school students administered in 1997 by the Monitoring the Future project. The most effective variables involve smoking-related beliefs and perceptions, particularly in anticipated future smoking status, attempted quitting, number of smoking friends, and perceptions of other smokers. Personality and psychological variables were not effective at discriminating between the two groups.
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