Turnout In Local Elections Research Articles

Does decentralization boost electoral participation? Revisiting the question in a non-western context

Since the late 1970s, intergovernmental relationships worldwide have undergone an unequivocal transformation, with powers increasingly shifting toward subnational governments. One of the expected outcomes of decentralization reforms is a (re)vitalization of participation in subnational decision-making. If available empirical evidence tends to support this claim, it has remained primarily restricted to Western countries. This article leverages asymmetric decentralization arrangements in Ukraine to re-examine the effect of decentralization on voter turnout in a diverging setting. It conducts matching and regression analyses using an original city-level dataset that combines electoral, census, administrative, financial and geospatial data. The results converge on a significantly positive effect on voter turnout in local elections of more than 4 percentage points. Additional analyses concerning the mechanisms suggest that the effect might be driven by citizens’ awareness of electoral stakes. Interestingly, the increase in voter turnout appears concomitant with lower perceived local government performance.

Local Democracy in America: How Access, Competition, and Place Shape Turnout in Mayoral Races

The vast majority of the roughly half-million elected officials in the U.S. occupy local offices, however, research examining how they get elected to remains scant. The present study examines turnout in local elections, focusing on the effects of electoral rules, the competitiveness of local races, and whether and how place matters. Based on a sample of roughly 10,000 mayoral elections, this study represents the most systematic empirical analysis of local turnout to date. While we find substantial differences in turnout across rural towns, suburbs, and central cities, these differences are largely explained by electoral and contextual factors that are unevenly distributed across the local landscape. Though election timing is far and away the most important factor, uncontested mayoral races, local elections in states with restrictive voting laws as well as those mid-sized municipalities are associated with significantly lower turnout.

Close actions speak louder than distant words? The effect of local parties on voter turnout in Swedish local elections 1994–2018

ABSTRACT Does the presence of local political parties increase turnout in municipal elections? A handful of previous studies have found that local parties indeed have this effect. Against that backdrop, we examine the impact of the rapid growth in the number of local parties on voter turnout in Swedish local elections. We test the so-called “best of both worlds” hypothesis, which predicts that the presence of local parties – alongside lists of local branches of national party organizations – increases choice for the voters, and thereby increases voter turnout. Our empirical tests employ data from seven Swedish local elections between 1994 and 2018. Ultimately, and contrary to findings from other settings, our results suggest that the presence of local parties does not contribute to higher voter turnout in Sweden. We maintain that this most likely is due to Sweden being a tough test for this hypothesis since Sweden has some unique institutional characteristics, such as concurrent elections and high baseline turnout in local elections.

Mapping the Territorial Distribution of Voter Turnout in Czech Local Elections (1994–2018)

This article analyzes voter turnout in the Czech Republic on a very detailed spatial structure and an extended yearly time series (1994–2018). Its main goal is to examine the spatial dimension of the disparities in voter turnout in local elections at the level of all (more than 6,000) Czech municipalities. To achieve this goal, global and local spatial autocorrelation methods are used. Municipality-level cartographic presentations then provide spatial evidence of highly stable patterns of electoral participation in Czech municipalities. In the long term, there is no substantial inter-electoral change of the clustering of voter turnout in the different municipalities, except for an overall decline of the homogeneity of the clusters with low or high electoral turnout. In short, the article provides an understanding of electoral turnout in Czech local elections that other approaches have not achieved.

Is small beautiful? Transitional and structural effects of municipal amalgamation on voter turnout in local and national elections

The effect of jurisdiction size on democracy is hotly debated. Allegedly, smallness promotes democracy, whereas effectiveness and efficiency increase with size. Neither claim has strong empirical underpinnings. We provide evidence for the former. We use municipal amalgamations as a source of exogenous variation in jurisdiction size and show that it reduced voter turnout in Dutch elections in the 1986–2018 period. This period is sufficiently long to separate potential temporary effects of the amalgamation process from a structural effect of size increase. Surprisingly, we find no evidence of the former. Municipal amalgamation reduces turnout in local elections by 2.2 percentage points and in national elections by 0.7 percentage points. Both effects are long-lasting, persisting at least five elections after amalgamation. More detailed analysis reveals that the most likely driving forces are a weakening of the social norm to vote, and, in municipal elections, increased distance between voters and politics.

Will Concurrent Elections Reshape the Electorate?

In 2015, Governor Jerry Brown signed the California Voter Participation Rights Act (SB 415) into law. As its title suggests, the bill aimed to increase turnout in local elections by forcing all California jurisdictions to hold elections concurrently with statewide elections (in June or November of even years). Turnout in local elections is significantly lower than national turnout, averaging only 20% by some estimates (Alford and Lee 1968, Wood 2002, Hajnal and Lewis 2003, Caren 2007, Hajnal 2009). Scholars have found that election timing is the most important predictor of differences in aggregate turnout rates across cities (Alford and Lee 1968, Anzia 2014, Anzia 2011, Hajnal and Trounstine 2005). Hajnal and Lewis find that city elections that coincide with presidential elections are associated with a turnout of registered voters 36 percentage points higher than turnout in cities that do not hold elections that coincide with the presidential election (2001, 656). Caren finds that cities holding elections concurrent with the presidential election increase voter turnout by 27% compared to cities that do not (2007, 41). The logic behind SB 415 is that moving local elections to coincide with national elections will improve electoral participation.

Explaining voter turnout in local elections: a global comparative perspective

ABSTRACT The determinants of voter turnout in local elections are examined using global cross-national time-series comparative evidence from 97 countries. Despite the vast research agenda on turnout, only a few comparative tests at the local level are available. Filling this lacuna, the article explores how seven institutional features are related to local turnout. It analyses both the effects of rules applicable exclusively to local politics (size of municipalities, local authority power, directly elected mayors), and of institutions previously theorised to affect turnout in national elections. Compulsory voting and the concurrence with first-order elections not only powerfully shape turnout in local elections but also help close the turnout deficit relative to national elections. The autonomy of local elected authorities also drives turnout, but we lack evidence for the effects on turnout of electing mayors directly, weekend voting, concurrence with second-order elections and the size of municipalities.

Local autonomy and national–local turnout gap: Higher stakes, higher turnout?

ABSTRACT This paper offers a cross-national comparison of the aggregate turnout rates in local elections across 21 European countries between 1990 and 2014. The study confirms that the aggregate turnout in local elections is almost always lower than the turnout in the preceding parliamentary election; yet, the national–local turnout gap varies considerably across European countries. The level of local autonomy, i.e. the amount of power and discretion available at the local level turned out to be only a weak explanation of this participation gap. The Local Autonomy Index (LAI) had a positive effect on the local voter turnout, which is in line with the ‘less at stake’ argument of the second-order elections theory, yet the magnitude of this effect is rather small. The synchronization of electoral cycles plays a much more significant role in explaining the aggregate local voter turnout.

Best of both worlds? Independent lists and voter turnout in local elections

ABSTRACT How does the presence of independent lists influence voter turnout in municipal and sub-municipal elections? Despite the persistence of independent lists in local elections of European countries, this question has remained underexplored. Our paper examines the influence of independent lists on voter turnout both theoretically and empirically. In the theoretical discussion, we outline two competing hypotheses. On one hand, the best of both worlds hypothesis predicts that owing to increased choice for the voters, the presence of nonpartisan lists would increase voter turnout. On the other hand, the competing hypothesis suggests the opposite due to higher information costs associated with independent lists. We test our hypotheses using data from four election cycles of Portuguese municipal and sub-municipal levels of government. Since 2001, Portugal’s electoral law allows the participation of nonpartisan lists of candidates in local elections. The empirical analysis employs fractional probit and beta regression models and finds strong support for the best of both worlds hypothesis, both at the municipal and the sub-municipal levels.

Turnout in Local Elections: Is Timing Really Everything?

Abstract Though it is often assumed that U.S. local elections are uniformly low turnout events, there is actually considerable variation across space and time. Building on literature on local turno...

The decrease of simultaneous local election voter turnout in the Lamongan District

Voter turnout in local elections (pilkada) is a participation indicator. The local election in 2015 was different from the local elections pre-2015, as the local election in 2015 was held simultaneously. Regional electoral commissions (KPUD) gave candidates campaign facilities like posters, banners, and debates with the other candidates on local television. This socialisation was expected to increase voter turnout. The purpose of this research to ascertain the level of voter turnout in the local election held in 2015 in Lamongan, and whether it is increasing or declining.KPUD has a new role not only to do with socialisation, but KPUD must also print campaign props in line with the fairness principles. The research methods used in this study were a survey and multistage random sampling for the sampling technique. The voter turnout in the 2015 local election was just 60.47% lower than the voter turnout of the 2014 legislative election(Pileg) that reached 71%. In the local election, the emotional bond between the voters and candidates is more powerful than that in a legislativeelection, but in the Lamongan local election 2015, it was not positively correlated. There are two main factors that influence the decrease of voter turnout. First, is the material orientation of the voters (sangu). If they do not get“Sangu”, they will not vote and they prefer to work in the fields. Voters thought that leaving their job for the election should get them substitution money. Second, was the indication of cartel politics, embracing all political parties in Lamongan Regency, for them to support the same candidate who was still on duty, namely Fadeli, and two other candidates. The level of voter turnout is influenced by the material orientation of the voters and cartel politics.

Homeownership and voter turnout in u.s. local elections

This paper provides evidence that economic self-interest associated with homeownership affects voter turnout in local elections in the United States. Compared to renters, homeowners are financially invested in their communities and are less mobile. Therefore, homeowners should care more about local policies and have incentives to engage actively in local politics. The disparity in political participation between homeowners and renters, however, should diminish in presidential elections for which policy discussions are more targeted at the national-level. These hypotheses are tested using census block group-level election panel data. Fixed effects models and a control function approach are used to identify the effect of homeownership on voter turnout in off-year mayoral elections relative to presidential elections. Results show that mayoral election voter turnout increases with the local homeownership rate. This suggests that local policies may tend to cater to the tastes of homeowners over renters.

How do municipal amalgamations affect turnout in local elections? Insights from the 2015 municipal reform in the Austrian state of Styria

ABSTRACTIn this paper, we evaluate the effect of municipal amalgamations on election turnout in local elections. Following recent studies, we argue that municipal mergers can lead to less information about the election being made available to citizens and less influence for individual voters. That is, while citizens in the local context usually rely on their own direct contacts in local offices and among political candidates, the subsequent increase in population size due to a merger reduces opportunities for establishing such contacts and for having decisive influence on political decisions. Consequently, voters are less informed and less engaged, resulting in lower levels of electoral turnout in local elections. We test our argument empirically by using aggregate level data from the municipal level from the 2010 and 2015 local elections in Styria, Austria, which followed the amalgamation of some, but not all, municipalities in January 2015. The empirical results support our argument.

Newspaper markets and municipal politics: how audience and congruence increase turnout in local elections

ABSTRACTMedia coverage of politics is widely considered essential to political participation. However, studies on local elections do not yet generally take the effect of the media environment into account. This article posits that the territorial fit between newspaper markets and municipal boundaries makes citizens’ exposure to locally relevant news more likely. We use fine-grained data on newspaper readership in order to assess the effect of the territorial structure of the newspaper market on turnout in municipal elections in Switzerland. The analysis shows that newspaper audience in a municipality and the congruence of newspaper markets with municipal territories both have substantial positive effects on levels of turnout in municipal elections. The findings suggest that future research on local political behavior should better acknowledge the influence of the media environment – which can be adequately measured by newspaper audience and congruence. Implications are that current structural changes in the media system bear threats to local democracy via the territorial upscaling of media markets.

Turnout in Local Elections: Evidence from Canadian Cities, 2004–2014

AbstractWe provide the first wide-scale analysis of the factors that influence voter turnout in Canadian local elections. Drawing on original data from 300 municipal elections conducted from 2004 to 2014, we use ordinary least squares regression with panel-corrected standard errors for time series cross-sections to test explanatory hypotheses related to differences in institutional design, the social-spatial context of these elections, and local competitiveness. Our results show that, although institutional and sociospatial factors influence local turnout, the competitiveness of elections exercises the greatest influence on local electoral participation.

Voter turnout and the size of government

This paper uses Swedish and Finnish municipal data to investigate the effect of changes in voter turnout on the tax rate, public spending and vote-shares. A reform in Sweden in 1970, which overall lowered the cost of voting, is applied as an instrument for voter turnout in local elections. The reform increased voter turnout in Sweden. The higher voter turnout resulted in higher municipal taxes and greater per capita local public spending. There are also indications that higher turnout decreased the vote share for right-wing parties. I use an individual survey data set to conclude that it was in particular low income earners that began to vote to a greater extent after the reform.

Recent Trends of Local Government Elections in Bangladesh: An Analysis on Profile and Politics

This study attempts at analysing the recent trends of local government elections in Bangladesh. In this regard, the study mainly focuses on the personal profile of winners, including political affiliation, voter turnout and environment of the last local elections. To attain this objective, data both qualitative and quantitative are collected from primary and secondary sources. The study clearly reveals that individuals with inappropriate educational backgrounds are getting elected to local bodies. It is indeed noticed that there is a domination of business personalities in local elections, whereas participation of criminals has also found that hindered competent candidates in contesting in the local election. The majority of the winners in elections is found in tie with and is supported by major political parties. In addition to that, the average voter turnout in local elections is found satisfactory with Bangladeshi standard except in some cases. Moreover, election-related violence and irregularities are pronounced at all levels. There is also an allegation against ruling political party to work in favour of definite candidates and influence elections. Despite the fact that Bangladeshi people always enjoys the opportunity to vote in local elections since the independence in 1971.

Exposing Politicianss Ties to Criminal Organizations: The Effects of Local Government Dissolutions on Electoral Outcomes in Southern Italian Municipalities

Since 1991, the Italian national government can dissolve municipal councils when infiltration by organized crime is suspected (Law 164/1991). We exploit variation over time and space in the application of this law to study voters’ responses to politicians’ publicly exposed ties to criminal organizations. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that public exposure of ties to organized crime significantly depresses turnout in local elections, and negatively impacts the electoral performance of incumbents and purely local political parties. The breach in the local political principal-agent relationship also translates into citizens’ reduced willingness to contribute to the financing of local public goods.

Plus Ça Change: The 2014 Local Elections in Northern Ireland

The local government elections of 22 May 2014 in Northern Ireland were the first to be held under revised district boundaries, with 11 ‘super councils’ replacing the 26-council model used since 1973. Despite the structural reform, little changed in terms of political party support. Although they suffered some losses, the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin remained firmly entrenched as the two dominant players at local government level in Northern Ireland. The Ulster Unionist Party enjoyed only a marginal increase in its vote share, while the Social Democratic and Labour Party recorded one of the worst electoral performances in its history. Elsewhere, the Traditional Unionist Voice enjoyed a ‘breakthrough’ election and the Alliance Party defied widely held predictions that it would suffer at the polls as a result of its role in the Union flag crisis. The campaign was overshadowed by both the concurrent European Parliament contest and several crises of power-sharing at Stormont. As a result, distinctly local government issues received scant and fleeting attention. The contest saw the lowest local election turnout in Northern Ireland's history, continuing a general trend of increasing voter apathy in the province.

Local Voting Rights for Non-Nationals: Experience in Sweden, the Netherlands and Belgium

This article explores the impact of local voting rights accorded to non-nationals in Sweden, the Netherlands and Belgium. The first two countries have some three-decade experience with such voting rights; while in Belgium, the expanded franchise was first exercised in 2006. Drawing on qualitative research carried out in the three countries, the author reviews the rationale for the reforms, the parameters of the franchise and trends in migrants’ democratic involvement, including their election to municipal and other representative bodies. In Sweden and the Netherlands, non-nationals’ turnout in local elections is generally lower than that for citizens and has tended to decline over time (although there are exceptions, such as the 2006 Dutch local elections in Amsterdam and Rotterdam). Non-nationals’ participation in Belgium’s two commune elections since the law was changed was low (and dropped slightly between 2006 and 2012). Introducing non-national local voting rights may be making a modest contribution to migrant political integration (including through the election of representatives from a migration background) in the three countries, but other factors, including political parties’ recruitment strategies and minority community mobilization, are probably more important. As for lessons that could be applied elsewhere, the author is critical of rules that create obstacles to non-nationals’ electoral participation and thus seem to contradict what should be seen as a gesture of inclusion.