Abstract
The effect of jurisdiction size on democracy is hotly debated. Allegedly, smallness promotes democracy, whereas effectiveness and efficiency increase with size. Neither claim has strong empirical underpinnings. We provide evidence for the former. We use municipal amalgamations as a source of exogenous variation in jurisdiction size and show that it reduced voter turnout in Dutch elections in the 1986–2018 period. This period is sufficiently long to separate potential temporary effects of the amalgamation process from a structural effect of size increase. Surprisingly, we find no evidence of the former. Municipal amalgamation reduces turnout in local elections by 2.2 percentage points and in national elections by 0.7 percentage points. Both effects are long-lasting, persisting at least five elections after amalgamation. More detailed analysis reveals that the most likely driving forces are a weakening of the social norm to vote, and, in municipal elections, increased distance between voters and politics.
Highlights
Governed jurisdictions are expected to effectively and efficiently provide services for their citizens, and to translate the preferences of their inhabitants into policy
As we show below, there are theoretical reasons to expect that the size of local jurisdictions may affect voter turnout in higher-level elections, something that is neglected in the literature
Including national elections is interesting in its own right: we find that municipal amalgamation affects turnout in national elections
Summary
Governed jurisdictions are expected to effectively and efficiently provide services for their citizens, and to translate the preferences of their inhabitants into policy. As we show below, there are theoretical reasons to expect that the size of local jurisdictions may affect voter turnout in higher-level elections, something that is neglected in the literature. Including national elections is interesting in its own right: we find that municipal amalgamation affects turnout in national elections It helps us discriminate between different causal mechanisms, because some may only apply to local elections, some to national elec tions, and some to both. Lassen and Serrit zlew (2011) find that the municipal amalgamations in Denmark in 2007 had a detrimental effect on individual citizens’ beliefs that they are sufficiently competent to understand and take part in politics This may have resulted in a reduction of voter turnout, but that was not part of their study. By systematically comparing expected and estimated effects, we aim to shed as much light as possible on the like lihood that certain mechanisms are at play
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