Turnout Areas Research Articles

When Context Matters: Assessing Geographical Heterogeneity of Get-Out-The-Vote Treatment Effects Using a Population Based Field Experiment

Abstract The presence of heterogeneity in treatment effects can create problems for researchers employing a narrow experimental pool in their research. In particular it is often questioned whether the results of a particular experiment can be extrapolated outside the specific location of the study. In this article, we use a population-based field experiment in order to test the extent to which treatment effects for impersonal mobilisation techniques (direct mail and telephone) are sensitive to where they are carried out (geography) and the context of the election in which they were conducted. We find that on the whole it does not much matter where an experiment is conducted: the treatment effects are to all intents and purposes geographically uniform. This has important implications for the external validity of get-out-the-vote field studies more generally, especially where single locations are used. However, there is one important exception to this: experiments carried out in high turnout locations at high salience elections may show larger effects than those carried out in low turnout areas.

Sizing of Terminal Units in Surface Irrigation Projects: I

The problem of optimal turnout area size is analyzed using an approach common to the casual processes theory (CPT) of mathematical sociology and to the systems engineering approach. The three basic CPT models with different dependence structures are expanded for application to the problem. The general structure of the CPT model, which is based on the basic Bernoulli trials process, is presented, indicating the factors affecting the receipt of water by farmers. The phenomenon of human and physical interventions in CPT model 2 is characterized by the Bernoulli distribution of Poisson with different probabilities and with constant successive probabilities ratio. For the latter case, sets of parametric curves are given for three levels of prescribed success. In CPT model 3, a methodology is derived for obtaining a given or more fraction of visits to a particular state in a two‐state Markov chain model (MCM). These methods enable the parameterization of the level of success in obtaining water successfully by a group of farmers given the group size and the degree of intervention process. By prescribing satisfactory levels of the value for this success probability for a given value of the parameter for the degree of cooperation, the optimal group size is obtained. A mean value model is also developed for CPT model 3 with a four‐state MCM indicating a sample parametric application.

Distribution of Water in Indonesian Irrigation Systems

ABSTRACT Afield study of irrigation systems in two villages in Indonesia was conducted for two years. The studies were intended to develop a comprehensive understanding of the physical and socio-economic factors that critically influence water distribution within these irrigation systems. Data were collected on irrigation water supplies, rainfall, crop water requirements, water stress index and crop yields to evaluate spatial and temporal distribution of irrigation water. Equity of water distribution was relatively high among irrigation units (turnout areas). Within the turnout areas, the equity of water distribution was variable, being influenced primarily by distance from the turnout and soil texture. Maximum water use efficiency at the turnout was 70%. It is concluded that the existing management practices in these irrigation systems result in water distributions that are reasonably equitable and efficient