Turkish Stream Research Articles

SITUATION IN THE RUSSIAN GAS INDUSTRY IN 2022–2023

The article examines the state of the Russian gas industry in the period from the beginning of sanctions (2022) to the end of 2023. The author assesses the period of adaptation to the new market conditions. It is the author’s opinion that the risks in the gas sector last year turned out to be more extensive than in the oil sector. The reduction in gas production is primarily due to the reduction in natural gas purchases by European consumers. Exports to non-CIS countries have decreased over the past two years. Over the past two years, there has been a decline in gas production levels, with the most noticeable drawdowns being seen at Gazprom. This is not only due to the decrease in exports, but also due to the increase in production by other companies (NOVATEK and Rosneft).Russia currently supplies gas via pipelines to Europe, Turkey and the People’s Republic of China. In the European direction, supplies are made through the Ukrainian GTS and the Turkish Stream pipeline. Gas supplies to China have the greatest potential; during the period under review, they increased one and a half times. There is a planned increase in supplies through the Power of Siberia gas pipeline.The author also describes the complicated dynamics in the domestic gas market. The program of social gasification, which continues to develop, is mentioned separately.According to the author, the government will have to develop measures to support the industry in order to fulfill its social obligations and develop new projects that will ensure diversification of sales markets and substitution of partners from unfriendly jurisdictions in the coming years.

STRATEGIC INTERACTION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND TURKEY WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE TURKISH STREAM CONSTRUCTION PROJECT

Turkish Stream is a difficult-to-implement and large-scale engineering project in gas pipeline construction, which is located at a depth of more than 2,000 meters in the Black Sea. The creation of the project was conditioned by the possibilities of establishing new routes for gas export, strengthening of international relations between Russia and Turkey, energy security of Turkey and European countries, as well as consolidation of Russia’s status of energy leader. The article considers the peculiarities of international relations between Russia and Turkey, characterizes the Turkish Stream project, identifies the economic benefits of the countries from the construction of the Black Sea gas pipeline, defines the role of Turkish Stream in strengthening political cooperation, analyzes the risks associated with the construction of the Russian-Turkish gas pipeline, and develops the concept of international strategic interaction within the framework of Turkish Stream in modern conditions.

Prospects for the Development of Eurasian Integration in the Field of Expanding Export Cargo Flows of Russian Gas to Friendly Countries amid the Escalation of the Energy Crisis in the World

Aim. In 2022, the shortage of energy carriers on the world market was directly affected by sanctions against the Russian energy sector and terrorist attacks on the Nord Stream and Nord Stream —2 gas pipelines, while scientific publications do not present global calculations of the volumes of Russian gas falling out of world circulation. The aim is to assess the volumes of Russian gas falling out of global turnover.Tasks. Identification of prospects for the development of Eurasian integration in the field of expanding export cargo flows of Russian gas to friendly countries against the background of the escalation of the energy crisis in the world taking into account exogenous and endogenous factors influencing changes in the production and consumption of Russian gas.Methods. Methods of system and comparative analysis, scientific generalization, expert assessments, forecasting methods.Results. The author presents an analysis of Russia’s role in global gas s upplies, an assessment of falling export volumes, as well as a short-term forecast of changes in pipeline gas cargo flows according to optimistic, basic and pessimistic scenarios.Conclusion. According to the author, in order to exclude significant losses in gas production in Russia and to implement an optimistic scenario, it is important to accelerate the timing of the unification of the western and eastern gas transmission systems, as well as the implementation of investment projects for the construction of gas pipeline capacities “Power of Siberia — 2”, “Soyuz — Vostok”, “Turkish Stream — 2”.

Политические и экономические риски энергетической безопасности в глобальном мире (на примере России)

The article discusses the energy security of the Russian Federation in the context of aspects of national security. The transnational level of energy security is investigated, where global risks are taken into account. Attention is drawn to the unfriendly actions of actors who are unfriendly to the Russian Federation (on the example of the construction of the Nord Stream). Moreover, the blocking of certain sections of the Nord Stream is no longer correlated with economic expediency, the prevention of Moscow’s hegemony in the energy sector by the EU. The article concludes about reputational, economic and economic losses for Russia after the explosions on the Nord Stream-1 and Nord Stream-2 in September 2022. There is also a threat to Russia’s security from Turkey’s dependence in the event of the full implementation of the Turkish Stream, which will play a key role in the supply of resources between the Russian Federation and the EU. A possible change in the political course of the Turkish authorities in favor of Russia may affect the general background of contacts between Moscow and Brussels. The paper examines the regulatory framework for energy security (the Energy Security Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2030 and 2035). Among the key areas of energy security, it can be noted: the guarantee of energy security, satisfaction of domestic energy demand; rational use of natural resources; gradual transition to resource-saving energy. At the same time, the analysis of internal risks allows us to draw conclusions about significant equipment wear, a sharp reduction in the volume of geological exploration, high energy intensity, and a decrease in investments in the fuel and energy sector. Russia demonstrates long-term plans both to expand energy contacts and to deepen dialogue in the energy sector. Based on these problems and risks, the prospects for energy security should be built in accordance with such directions as: economic efficiency and political stabilization.

NATURAL GAS AS A SUBJECT OF GEOPOLITICAL INTERESTS OF STATES

In the last decade, the subject of sale, purchase or transit of natural gas between the countries in Europe has gained, in addition to the economic dimension, a much broader, and for some countries even more significant, geopolitical dimension. This is most evident based on the attitude of the United States and some European countries towards the projects for the construction of the Nord Stream 2, Turkish Stream and South Stream gas pipelines. By displaying a negative attitude towards these gas pipelines, the United States (with the support of some European countries) has formally emerged as a “protector of the energy interests of European countries” from Russian influence, i.e. Russian gas. Essentially, the United States is trying to slow down, reduce and suspend gas supplies from the Russian Federation (RF) to European countries, especially the most powerful ones (Germany, for example), and disguised by the need to “diversify gas supplies to European countries”, thus reduce Russia’s presence in Europe and quality of interstate relations. At the same time, the United States is trying to offer and sell its liquefied natural gas to European countries as an alternative to Russian gas, and to “fill in” the empty geopolitical space. The Russian Federation, on its behalf, instructed by the experiences from several “gas crises” with Ukraine, but also in accordance with its geopolitical interests, seeks (and has almost succeeded in doing so) to ensure the transport and sale of its gas by building new gas pipelines to Europe and improve relations with European countries. Other European countries, which need Russian gas, are trying to ensure energy security by participating in the construction of the gas pipeline, or by supporting the realization of that project. The fate of the gas pipeline and thus the possibility of gas distribution to individual states becomes a subject of interest (and conflict) of the great powers and their geopolitical interests.

РОССИЙСКО-ТУРЕЦКОЕ СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВО В РАМКАХ ПРОЕКТА "ТУРЕЦКИЙ ПОТОК"

Cooperation within the framework of the Turkish Stream project, which provides for the export of Russian gas to Europe through Turkey is discussed in the article. The author studies the conditions of creation, the essence and advantages of the project and analyzes the interests of the participating countries as well as evaluates the benefits that the countries of Southern Europe should receive during its implementation. In the article is noted that within the framework of the project, it was planned to build two gas pipelines, one of which provided for meeting the energy needs of Turkey, and the other for Europe. At the same time, the route of Russian gas supplies to Europe via the gas pipeline following Turkey became the subject of a dispute between Greece and Bulgaria. In the article a conclusion is is also made that TANAP, one of the key elements of the Southern Gas Transportation Corridor, is not an alternative to the Turkish Stream project. The author notes the high geostrategic significance of the Turkish Stream project, its contribution to ensuring energy security not only of the initiator states, but also of the countries that subsequently joined the project. Thus, according to the author, the project played a significant role not only in the development of energy interaction between the two countries, but also created conditions for broad regional cooperation.

Analysis of Energy Projects Financial Efficiency and Renewable Energy Generation in Russia

The authors study the development of the oil and gas industry and assess the financial efficiency of the use of renewable energy sources, which determine the relevance of the research topic. The purpose of this work is to study the effectiveness of the development of the Russian energy sector and its contribution to the world economy. The main question to which this article should give an answer is that how the Russian power industry will develop in corresponding to the global trends in energy consumption. This paper uses a method for finding the parameters of the efficiency of renewable energy sources using exponential smoothing. The paper uses data from the analytical report of British Petroleum and the Bloomberg system for the period from January 2012 to December 2019. The result of the study shows an improvement in the accuracy of the predicted values, while previous models had higher standard error estimates. The novelty of the study is to achieve accurate results of the forecast of fossil-fuel consumption for 3 years ahead (the forecast accuracy is 80.5). The article concludes that while Russian oil and gas projects are very important for the Russian economy until now, renewable energy projects are more beneficial. In addition, Russia does not seem to support the global trend towards a renewable and sustainable economy. Although oil and gas prices remain acceptable, unforeseen changes in the behavior of real buyers can hinder the efficiency of the Russian economy and lead to a disruption of Russia’s economic growth if Russia does not decisively steer towards renewable energy from now on. The growth of the Russian power industry corresponds to the global trends in fossil energy consumption (while fossil prices, thus incomes keep worsening), and thus innovative solutions for enhancing renewable energies must be adopted. The article proves that many pipeline projects (South Stream, Turkish Stream, Nord Stream 2) move the Russian energy sector back to the past because they just contradict existing trends.

Reasons for changing the vector of Russian exports and the new role of the Arctic

The article provides an overview of projects for the construction of the export infrastructure of Russian resources, implemented in the recent decades. The factors influencing the decisions on the construction of the largest oil pipelines (Baltic pipeline system I and II, Eastern Siberia – Pacific Ocean) and gas pipelines (Nord Stream I and II, Turkish stream, Power of Siberia and others) are analysed. An approved program for the development of the Northern sea route until 2035, which involves major investments in the creation of a new eastern export route, is also being considered. The analysis shows that in addition to the political factor, the decisions on financing the new export infrastructure are influenced by the factors of competition and global warming. The latter acts both as a limiting factor due to environmental restrictions on fuel consumption in the European Union and as a stimulating factor due to the Russian government‘s hopes for more stable and cheaper navigation along the Northern Sea Route. The analysis illustrates that the export diversification policy in general is yielding results, which is demonstrated by an increase in the share of exports in the Asian direction. However, it remains unclear how rational financing new projects for the export of energy resources is in the context of a long-term trend towards a decrease in their cost in world markets.

SECURITY CHALLENGES AT THE BLACK SEA REGION IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 21ST CENTURY

The lifelong geostrategic significance of the Black Sea region is indisputable. It has been an inalienable trade routes factor between Europe and Asia for centuries, as well as a distinct bridgehead for influence in the Middle East. Quite often the Straits connecting the Black Sea with the Mediterranean Sea cause conflict of interests and clashes between the Great Powers. Unlike the Mediterranean basin or the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea region is not historically and culturally homogeneous. During the Cold War, the border between East and West passes here. Today the Black Sea region is a kind of border between the Euro-Atlantic and Russian security system, as the main power factors in the arena are the actors with global and regional claims: USA, EU, Russia, China, Turkey. The globalization process and the development of the neo-liberal doctrine outlined a new multipolar world with various security risks and threats. The Black Sea region is a classic example of two parallel existing processes. With the attempt to integrate − by establishing regional trans-national institutions – the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC), Black Sea For, as well as the vigorous opposition to the interests of the global forces and their impact on the behavior of regional players and small countries.The Black Sea region is a zone of confrontation of geopolitical players, and their opposition has its regional and national dimensions. The regional geo-economic project “Trimorie”, as well as the Russian initiatives (“Turkish Stream”, “Blue Stream”) once again assign the Black Sea Basin the status of a serious arena of conflict of interests of major global players. Given the current energy aspects of security, the Black Sea undoubtedly plays an important role in regional and international security.

Prioritization of strategic measures for strengthening the security of supply of the Serbian natural gas sector

To strengthen the security of supply of the Serbian gas sector, it is necessary to analyze the impact of planned strategic measures. The analysis involves the identification of the most influential threats to the security of natural gas supply and prioritization of the strategic measures for overcoming the consequences of threats. The proposed methodology is based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process. The obtained weights for the identified threats and strategic measures are formed according to experts' judgments. The results of the experts’ judgments indicate that the most influential threats are termination of supply at the border with Hungary, termination of supply from Russia, and termination of supply from gas storage. The strategic measure with the highest priority is the so-called “Turkish Stream” project. Two additional strategic measures (gas interconnection Serbia – Bulgaria and the project of expanding the capacities of underground gas storage) could also be beneficial. The final results are validated by two security of supply indicators - Infrastructural Supply Standard (N-1) and Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). The N-1 is implemented to examine the preparedness of the gas system for disruption of the largest source in the network, while the HHI is implemented to examine the diversification of the imports.

Cooperation of Russia and Turkey in the energy sphere

The article examines the main areas of cooperation between Russia and Turkey in the energy sector, including the analysis of the joint projects "Turkish Stream" and the NPP "Akkuyu" and an assessment of their feasibility; identifi ed the main risks and possible consequences from the implementation of projects. Based on data on world energy, the share of energy resources in the global volume, the commodity structure of trade between Russia and Turkey, as well as their energy consumption, a forecast for the development of bilateral cooperation in this area in the short term is presented. It was revealed that under the infl uence of a number of factors (increased competition in the energy market, a drop in demand for them in Turkey recently; the orientation of the country’s foreign economic policy to the West, etc.), there is a slowdown in cooperation in the energy sector, including of the "Turkish Stream" project. It has been substantiated that promising directions for the development of cooperation in the energy sector are possible to implement the latest projects in the fuel and energy industry, including the construction of fuel and energy facilities, as well as to intensify cooperation on the "Turkish Stream" gas project with South-Eastern Europe.

STRATEGIC ENERGY PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CHINA

During recent years the role of energetic security in Russia steadily increases. After deterioration Russian relations with West countries in energy sector stay single stable economic tool, which Russia use for the maintenance of impact in surrounding region. Instability of the importers market which is priority for the country, bounded with excitements about use by Russia theirs position on the energetic, markets for reaching political goal through the development of projects such as Nord Stream 2 and Turkish stream. In its turn in latest decade, Russia aspires to ensure solid positions in Siberia and Far East. American companies refuse to participate in the execution of orders for Russia due to the unstable political situation and stricter restrictive and regulatory measures, which makes the level of risk of cooperation unacceptable. Using alternative sources of electricity, Russia and China can extract many positive effects: financial income, employment, energy security for the domestic market, etc. For example, in the Far East, the import of fuel can be reduced by 40% after the implementation of RAO UES plans to build 178 renewable energy sources with a total capacity of 146 mW.Keywords: strategic partnership, economic development, energy cooperation, Asian-Pacific region, energy securityJEL Classifications: C30, D12, Q41, Q48DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.9032

Russia’s Gas Price Discount for Bulgaria: The Problem of Imperial Economic Projects

For a long time Moscow regarded gas line as the source of increasing revenue and the way to project its global influence. Moscow also believed that gas would be always cheaper than LNG and market for gas is bottomless. Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream have played a crucial role in the setup of the system. However, we see that some problems have emerged recently. There is a clear decline in the prices and interests in Russian gas. It is due to the economic crisis as well as cheap LNG and alternative gas lines. For this very reason, small states like Bulgaria became more assertive towards Russia and compel Moscow to make considerable concessions.

Russian Gas Transit through Ukraine: Economic Feasibility and Geopolitical Contradictions

The article is devoted to the analysis of the main economic and geopolitical factors that influenced the conditions for signing a new contract between Gazprom and Naftogaz. The author considered the most important aspects of the problem of gas transit through Ukraine, its significance and consequences for the further development of modern international relations in the energy sector between the Russia, Ukraine and the European Union. The author especially noted that the construction of such pipelines as Nord Stream — 2 and Turkish Stream significantly reduces the role of Ukraine as a transit country. Moreover, the interest of Western European countries in the implementation of the Nord Stream — 2 project is faced with opposition to the construction of the gas pipeline from several states. The author paid much attention to the influence of the United States on the sphere of energy cooperation between Russia and the European Union. The author concludes that Ukrainian transit has become a geopolitical tool for pressure from the USA and Brussels on Russia. Finally, the author shows the main scenarios of the development of Russian-Ukrainian relations in the matter of direct deliveries of Russian gas to Ukraine.

К ВОПРОСУ О ВОЗМОЖНОСТИ ДЛЯ РОССИИ УЧАСТВОВАТЬ В ТУРЕЦКОМ ПРОЕКТЕ «КАНАЛ “СТАМБУЛ”»

On January 14, 2020 Ankara University of Social Sciences hosted a conference entitled “Energy Policy of Russia: Turkish Stream and Regional Balances”. The speakers outlined the main goal, which is to involve Russia in Turkish energy projects, including the Istanbul channel. In this regard, the author tried to research possibilities of Russia’s participation in the main Turkish megaproject. For Turkey to attract Russia as a co-investor means to allow the Russian Federation to regulate cargo flows in the Istanbul Canal, which seems completely impossible. In addition, the impossibility of the Russian-Turkish partnership is evidenced by the policy of Turkey itself. Despite financial difficulties, the question of attracting Russian investment has never been raised in Ankara, despite the fact that the Turks are seeking funds for their project everywhere — from Qatar and China to the Benelux countries. One should not forget that starting from 2013, Turkey has consistently put into operation all previously announced projects, and the decision to freeze some of them due to financial difficulties did not affect the Istanbul Canal. The exhaustion of the ideological concept (postponement of its launch until 2025) means that from now on the implementation of the project has moved into a more productive business phase, and the annual construction of canal sections means firm decision to complete the grand plan. At the same time, Russia will not be able to neutralize possible negative consequences by participating in the construction of the canal; it is necessary to look for other ways for cooperation.

Ukraina a tranzyt rosyjskiego gazu do Unii Europejskiej. Stan obecny oraz perspektywy na przyszłość

Ukraine and Russian gas transit to the European Union. Current situation and perspectives for the future Ukraine is the most important transit state of Russian gas to the European Union. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 caused the military conflict what affects mutual business relations between those two countries until today. It was one of the reasons that made Gazprom start thinking of new gas transition installation omitting Ukraine. The purpose of the study is to show current role of the Ukraine in Russian gas transit to the European Union. The first part of the article describes current situation of the gas sector in Ukraine and historical review of relations with Russia concerning gas trade. The second part shows current ways of Russian gas distribution to the EU and the perspectives connected with new gas pipelines projects – Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream. The third part focuses on giving an answer to the question: weather the Ukraine still is to be the Russian gas transit state in the second decade of the 21st century? The study is based on scientific and press articles as well as on information given at official websites of the following institutions: European Union, government of Ukraine, government of Russia, NGOs from Ukraine, Russia and EU states. The article is also based on discussion that took place in Warsaw at 11th of May 2019 during International Conference Quo Vadis Ukraine held by phd research organization „Ucrainica”.

The Impact of the Ukraine Crisis on the Planning of Russian-European Natural Gas Pipeline Projects

Ma, Z.; Pei, X.; Yi, Y.; Liu, Y., and Zhang, X., 2019. The impact of the Ukraine crisis on the planning of Russian-European natural gas pipeline projects. In: Li, L.; Wan, X., and Huang, X. (eds.), Recent Developments in Practices and Research on Coastal Regions: Transportation, Environment and Economy. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 98, pp. 392–401. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.With the adjustment and transformation of the world's political and economic conditions since the global financial crisis, the geopolitics of energy has become a nonnegligible factor constantly promoting the reshaping of the global energy landscape. On the basis of the geopolitics of energy, this study combines multistage dynamic and two-level game theory, selecting the Ukraine crisis as a triggering historical event of geopolitical energy conflicts between Russia and Europe and dividing their conflicts into four parts: the precrisis, crisis-tensioning, crisis-worsening, and postcrisis periods. It also decomposes the cooperation game of Russian-European natural gas pipeline projects into a game between the European Union (EU) and Russia, and a game between the EU and its member states. By using game theory, it analyzes why and how the planning of some natural gas pipeline projects (e.g., South Stream, Turkish Stream, Nord Stream 2, etc.) has been changed under the influence of energy geopolitics. In the end, several suggestions are given for Sino-Russian natural gas trade and cooperation.

Seasonal Variation of Some Trace Element and Heavy Metal Concentrations in a Turkish Stream

Seasonal Variation of Some Trace Element and Heavy Metal Concentrations in a Turkish Stream

The Annexation of Crimea: A Realist Look from the Energy Resources Perspective

AbstractThe article studies the role of energy resources in the annexation of Crimea by the Russian government. Russian justification that this action was taken to protect Russian ethnicity, as declared with the “referendum”, can be challenged in the light of the realist balance of power concept. According to the research, Russia considered Ukraine’s improving relations with the West as a threat and tried to eliminate it with preemptive action, in order to reestablish regional balance of power with the West. The article finds that the energy factor had a significant role in this consideration but in a subtractive approach. More precisely, there were no major incentives for Russia to capture the Black Sea resources intrinsically, but these reserves were recognized as part of the main Ukrainian economic empowerment plan, particularly on the EU’s future energy market. Thus, Russia tried to block Ukraine’s access to them in line with a wedge strategy. Hence, the annexation can be considered as one part of Russian energy policy towards the EU and Russia’s goal to emasculate Ukraine’s natural gas transit role by constructing new pipelines such as Nord Stream and Turkish Stream, as the other part.The study exemplifies how Ukraine’s strategic position has been significantly diminished from the energy perspective.

Ratings of The Investment Projects of Arbitrary Durations: New Methodology

In this paper we develop for the first time a new approach to ratings of the investment projects of arbitrary durations, which could be applied to investments of any area of economy and in particular to energy projects.The ratings of such energy projects, as "Turkish stream", "Nord stream-2", energy projects relating to clean, renewable and sustainable energy, as well as relating to pricing carbon emissions (McAleer et al., 2018a,b,c; 2019) could be done using developed here new rating methodologies. In our previous papers the new approach to the ratings of the long–term investment projects has been developed (Filatova et al., 2018). The important features of that consideration are as following: 1) The incorporation of rating parameters (financial "ratios"), used in project rating and playing a major role in it, into modern long–term investment models, 2) The adequate use of discounting of financial flows virtually not used in existing project rating methodologies. Here, for the first time, we incorporate the rating parameters (financial "ratios"), used in project rating, into modern investment models, describing the investment projects of arbitrary durations. This was much more difficult task then in case of the long–term investment projects, considered by us in previous papers. We work within investment models, created by authors. One of them describes the effectiveness of investment project from perspective of equity capital owners, while other model describes the effectiveness of investment project from perspective of equity capital and debt capital owners. New approach allows use the powerful instruments of modern theory of capital cost and capital structure (BFO theory) (Brusov et al., 2015, 2018) and modern investment models, created by the authors and well tested in the real economy to evaluate investment project performance, including energy projects.In our calculations we use Excel technique in two aspects: 1) we calculate WACC at different values of equity costs k0, different values of debt costs kd and different values of leverage level L=D/S, using the famous BFO formula; 2) we calculate the dependences of NPV on coverage ratios as well as leverage ratios at different values of equity costs k0, different values of debt costs kd and different values of leverage level L.