The Impact of the Ukraine Crisis on the Planning of Russian-European Natural Gas Pipeline Projects

Abstract

Ma, Z.; Pei, X.; Yi, Y.; Liu, Y., and Zhang, X., 2019. The impact of the Ukraine crisis on the planning of Russian-European natural gas pipeline projects. In: Li, L.; Wan, X., and Huang, X. (eds.), Recent Developments in Practices and Research on Coastal Regions: Transportation, Environment and Economy. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 98, pp. 392–401. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.With the adjustment and transformation of the world's political and economic conditions since the global financial crisis, the geopolitics of energy has become a nonnegligible factor constantly promoting the reshaping of the global energy landscape. On the basis of the geopolitics of energy, this study combines multistage dynamic and two-level game theory, selecting the Ukraine crisis as a triggering historical event of geopolitical energy conflicts between Russia and Europe and dividing their conflicts into four parts: the precrisis, crisis-tensioning, crisis-worsening, and postcrisis periods. It also decomposes the cooperation game of Russian-European natural gas pipeline projects into a game between the European Union (EU) and Russia, and a game between the EU and its member states. By using game theory, it analyzes why and how the planning of some natural gas pipeline projects (e.g., South Stream, Turkish Stream, Nord Stream 2, etc.) has been changed under the influence of energy geopolitics. In the end, several suggestions are given for Sino-Russian natural gas trade and cooperation.